It appears that the change in the LAB lead is due to a 2010LAB vote leak to UKIP and CON when comparing yougov from 6th May to the one from 10th March, with men going to CON and women to UKIP. Why would someone who voted Labour in 2010 vote for the CONs today?
Maybe they're Scottish voters who liked having a Scottish PM.
It appears that the change in the LAB lead is due to a 2010LAB vote leak to UKIP and CON when comparing yougov from 6th May to the one from 10th March, with men going to CON and women to UKIP. Why would someone who voted Labour in 2010 vote for the CONs today?
1. Because, against expectations they HAVE turned around the economy and perhaps some of those that voted Lab in 2010 now have job's, where-as they could have been unemployed in 2010?
2. The sky didn't fall in and the world didn't stop turning because we had a Conservative-led coalition, unlike the hysteria we had from Mandy/Campbell?
Labour's 2010 election campaign was actually pretty effective in terms of scare-mongering and hysteria about what the evil Tories would do (same with Boris in the 2008 Mayoral election) So, the fact things haven't been anywhere near as bad as Labour's hysteria means there could be room for the Conservatives (and potentially the Lib-Dems) to win some 2010 Labour voters.
So with Labour's apparent glissando in the polls, which voters are changing their allegiance and where are they changing it to? Forgive me if I find it hard to credit that bleeding heart 2010 Lib Dem voters are deciding to put an X in Mr Farage's box.
I bet it is happening, especially in places like the south west.
For a lot of voters the LDs were simply a protest vote against the main two; they didn't have much of a clue of what they stood for in terms of policies on subjects like Europe. So it's natural they would shift to UKIP now.
So with Labour's apparent glissando in the polls, which voters are changing their allegiance and where are they changing it to? Forgive me if I find it hard to credit that bleeding heart 2010 Lib Dem voters are deciding to put an X in Mr Farage's box.
I bet it is happening, especially in places like the south west.
For a lot of voters the LDs were simply a protest vote against the main two; they didn't have much of a clue of what they stood for in terms of policies on subjects like Europe. So it's natural they would shift to UKIP now.
You'll get my views on the south west tomorrow morning.
So with Labour's apparent glissando in the polls, which voters are changing their allegiance and where are they changing it to? Forgive me if I find it hard to credit that bleeding heart 2010 Lib Dem voters are deciding to put an X in Mr Farage's box.
I bet it is happening, especially in places like the south west.
For a lot of voters the LDs were simply a protest vote against the main two; they didn't have much of a clue of what they stood for in terms of policies on subjects like Europe. So it's natural they would shift to UKIP now.
Re: LD-UKIP switchers. I was a 2010 LD and likely to be UKIP in 2015. I liked the LDs as I saw them as centrist and in the middle of the other two parties. I was actually happy with the Coalition but went off them when the LDs started setting themselves up as opposition to their own government.
What has also changed is that I used to be fairly neutral on the EU but have massively turned against it over Greece and Cyprus.
I like Shirl because she seems to be an unstoppable force. The fact she (along with the rest of The Gang) helped make The Blessed Margaret's time in office possible is an added bonus!
If anyone had any lingering doubts about the fact that Dan Hodges (along with Hopi Sen) represents the last decent remnant of the once great tradition of the Labour Party, this bit from his latest piece should remove them:
But I’m not voting Labour in these elections. Not after last night. I had a look at the broadcast again. I spent a significant part of my life knocking lumps out of the Lib Dems and the Tories. And I was actually offended for them. It wasn’t the infantile depiction of Clegg that got me. It was that moment when the Tory Cabinet minister says about the disabled “they can’t fight back”. How such a patronising and offensive line made it into a Labour Party broadcast is beyond my understanding. And the fact it was directed at David Cameron, a man who nursed a severely disabled child through the six short years of his life, was sickening, frankly.
Re: LD-UKIP switchers. I was a 2010 LD and likely to be UKIP in 2015. I liked the LDs as I saw them as centrist and in the middle of the other two parties. I was actually happy with the Coalition but went off them when the LDs started setting themselves up as opposition to their own government.
What has also changed is that I used to be fairly neutral on the EU but have massively turned against it over Greece and Cyprus.
It took about 15 years after the similar ERM disaster for the consencus among voters in the UK to be against the EU, I wonder if the eurozone crisis will affect things in the eurozone countries in a similar way that it has affected your voting.
Hodges:Clegg is also the only political leader who has actually been making these European elections about Europe. Farage has turned them into a referendum on immigration. Cameron has tried to turn them into an advert for the recovering economy. Miliband has tried to use them as a full-scale drill for the general election in 2015
Of course, immigration is very much bound up with Europe, but there is still something in what he says here with the others.
Why? His assessment is brutally and depressingly accurate in my view.
It is bat-shit crazy, utterly insane.
The facts could not be simpler, and could not be clearer:
1) If we have a Conservative majority in 2015, there will be an In/Out referendum by the end of 2017. If we don't, there won't (unless there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament and the LibDems play ball, which is dubious).
2) If, in that referendum, the Out side prevail, we're Out.
You'd have thought - given these basic facts - that those who claim that they support Brexit would be working first of all for 1, and secondly preparing to campaign for 2. In fact they are working actively against 1, and doing absolutely nothing to prepare for 2.
Re: LD-UKIP switchers. I was a 2010 LD and likely to be UKIP in 2015. I liked the LDs as I saw them as centrist and in the middle of the other two parties. I was actually happy with the Coalition but went off them when the LDs started setting themselves up as opposition to their own government.
What has also changed is that I used to be fairly neutral on the EU but have massively turned against it over Greece and Cyprus.
It took about 15 years after the similar ERM disaster for the consencus among voters in the UK to be against the EU, I wonder if the eurozone crisis will affect things in the eurozone countries in a similar way that it has affected your voting.
I think it will vary by country. Anti-EU/Anti-Euro parties can be expected to do well in France, Finland, Ireland, Italy and Greece out of the Eurozone countries. The surprise is still how little Euro opposition there is in Spain and :Portugal - perhaps due to memories of the dictatorships.
If anyone had any lingering doubts about the fact that Dan Hodges (along with Hopi Sen) represents the last decent remnant of the once great tradition of the Labour Party, this bit from his latest piece should remove them:
But I’m not voting Labour in these elections. Not after last night. I had a look at the broadcast again. I spent a significant part of my life knocking lumps out of the Lib Dems and the Tories. And I was actually offended for them. It wasn’t the infantile depiction of Clegg that got me. It was that moment when the Tory Cabinet minister says about the disabled “they can’t fight back”. How such a patronising and offensive line made it into a Labour Party broadcast is beyond my understanding. And the fact it was directed at David Cameron, a man who nursed a severely disabled child through the six short years of his life, was sickening, frankly.
I though the ad was like a spitting image parody with real actors instead of puppets, it was very funny and it worked in that people remember its content about Clegg being the surrender type. I like satire, pity british TV doesn't do political satire much these days.
Re: LD-UKIP switchers. I was a 2010 LD and likely to be UKIP in 2015. I liked the LDs as I saw them as centrist and in the middle of the other two parties. I was actually happy with the Coalition but went off them when the LDs started setting themselves up as opposition to their own government.
What has also changed is that I used to be fairly neutral on the EU but have massively turned against it over Greece and Cyprus.
It took about 15 years after the similar ERM disaster for the consencus among voters in the UK to be against the EU, I wonder if the eurozone crisis will affect things in the eurozone countries in a similar way that it has affected your voting.
I think it will vary by country. Anti-EU/Anti-Euro parties can be expected to do well in France, Finland, Ireland, Italy and Greece out of the Eurozone countries. The surprise is still how little Euro opposition there is in Spain and :Portugal - perhaps due to memories of the dictatorships.
I think it will vary by income, poorer countries will be reluctant to rock the boat on the promise of EU monetary assistance but wealthier ones that give the money (except Germany for foreign policy reasons) will. The same process like Yugoslavia or the USSR, the wealthier states left first.
It's a classic mini scandal management, see how in the space on 15 seconds from 0:53 she turns the taxi rides issue into Ken Livingston has done a great job with public transport.
It's a classic mini scandal management, see how in the space on 15 seconds from 0:53 she turns the taxi rides issue into Ken Livingston has done a great job with public transport.
In my opinion Helmer is one of the worst choices UKIP have done in years, but interestingly the CONs have opened 5 offices in Newark and Crick reveals they are empty of people and even furniture. I'm waiting for a poll before I decide if its a CON hold.
In my opinion Helmer is one of the worst choices UKIP have done in years, but interestingly the CONs have opened 5 offices in Newark and Crick reveals they are empty of people and even furniture. I'm waiting for a poll before I decide if its a CON hold.
I agree I thought Helmer was an awful choice, but you never know... maybe UKIP arent so naive
He is an ex Conservative, he is old, he is more like the guy that won a massive majority in 2010 than any of the others.. who knows.?
John Sargeant @JPSargeant78 58m The politicians do not get Farage - shouting at him, haranguing him, makes him the protest vote people want #bbcqt
Thomas Evans @ThomasEvansUKIP 58m #bbcqt Farage tears it up with a audience arousing comment. Bumblebee finishes with a snide Policy comment.
Ben Glaze @benglaze 59m worrying that MPs from three big parties don't realise that shouting down @Nigel_Farage makes them look terrible and proves his point #bbcqt
Why? His assessment is brutally and depressingly accurate in my view.
It is bat-shit crazy, utterly insane.
The facts could not be simpler, and could not be clearer:
1) If we have a Conservative majority in 2015, there will be an In/Out referendum by the end of 2017. If we don't, there won't (unless there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament and the LibDems play ball, which is dubious).
2) If, in that referendum, the Out side prevail, we're Out.
You'd have thought - given these basic facts - that those who claim that they support Brexit would be working first of all for 1, and secondly preparing to campaign for 2. In fact they are working actively against 1, and doing absolutely nothing to prepare for 2.
Blimey, I wonder which is of more concern; your believing this rubbish or your expecting other people to believe it?
A few facts to counter your fantasy:
1. What Conservative majority? You didn't manage it last time against Brown. And when was the last time a Government increased its vote share?
2. Whatever happened to the Lisbon referendum that Cameron promised?
3. How did that AV referendum work out for the LibDems? Scuppered by Cameron, perchance? And you expect Ukippers to fall for the same trick?
4. Why promise a referendum anyway? That is for parties that would never form a UK Government i.e. UKIP and SNP. A party expecting to form a majority government should either say EU out or in. A referendum should only be offered if part of a coalition deal.
only issue seems to be a seat that may flip between DA/ANC and whether APC will make it into parliament.
Had they used straightforward Droop-LR another 4 parties might have made it into parliament (with 1-seat each). They curtail the LRs at 5, then perform D'Hondt on only the parties which have seats at that point, for any remaining seats.
Still extremely proportional. Loosemore-Hanby Index of around 1.2%. (UK 2010 was 23%, the most disproportional in the developed world.)
Now, I appear to have worked out how to comment on this (at long last), here's the result from Roman Bank: Samantha Clark (Con) 763 votes (48%), Alan Lay (UKIP) 537 votes (34%), Barry Diggle (Lab) 193 votes (12%), Erbie Murat (Ind) 70 votes (4%), Stephen Court (Lib Dem) 24 votes (2%). Conservative HOLD with a majority of 226 votes (14%). The turnout was 29.7%
Comments
He contested Broxtowe in 2010, 2005 and 2001.
Nige might have to go easy on them.
2. The sky didn't fall in and the world didn't stop turning because we had a Conservative-led coalition, unlike the hysteria we had from Mandy/Campbell?
Labour's 2010 election campaign was actually pretty effective in terms of scare-mongering and hysteria about what the evil Tories would do (same with Boris in the 2008 Mayoral election) So, the fact things haven't been anywhere near as bad as Labour's hysteria means there could be room for the Conservatives (and potentially the Lib-Dems) to win some 2010 Labour voters.
For a lot of voters the LDs were simply a protest vote against the main two; they didn't have much of a clue of what they stood for in terms of policies on subjects like Europe. So it's natural they would shift to UKIP now.
He does manage it marvellously.
wtf ?
He's certainly no (young) Tony Blair.
Those who are deluded are the ones who think that a referendum under Cameron will have any chance of resulting in a Brexit.
Blimey. Just Blimey.
I am lost for words, which doesn't happen often.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chuka-umunnas-british-obama-wikipedia-entry-came-from-his-former-office-8569083.html
Some politicians are strong on substance others on image.
Chuka is probably the image type, he looks good on TV with the sound off.
"Nick Clegg has taken a stand for Europe and against Ukip – so he's got my vote"
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100270662/nick-clegg-has-taken-a-stand-for-europe-and-against-ukip-so-hes-got-my-vote/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southampton_Test_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1950s
A posturing snob as Bligh might say of Christian
What has also changed is that I used to be fairly neutral on the EU but have massively turned against it over Greece and Cyprus.
I like Shirl because she seems to be an unstoppable force. The fact she (along with the rest of The Gang) helped make The Blessed Margaret's time in office possible is an added bonus!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helenus_Milmo
But I’m not voting Labour in these elections. Not after last night. I had a look at the broadcast again. I spent a significant part of my life knocking lumps out of the Lib Dems and the Tories. And I was actually offended for them. It wasn’t the infantile depiction of Clegg that got me. It was that moment when the Tory Cabinet minister says about the disabled “they can’t fight back”. How such a patronising and offensive line made it into a Labour Party broadcast is beyond my understanding. And the fact it was directed at David Cameron, a man who nursed a severely disabled child through the six short years of his life, was sickening, frankly.
Of course, immigration is very much bound up with Europe, but there is still something in what he says here with the others.
The facts could not be simpler, and could not be clearer:
1) If we have a Conservative majority in 2015, there will be an In/Out referendum by the end of 2017. If we don't, there won't (unless there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament and the LibDems play ball, which is dubious).
2) If, in that referendum, the Out side prevail, we're Out.
You'd have thought - given these basic facts - that those who claim that they support Brexit would be working first of all for 1, and secondly preparing to campaign for 2. In fact they are working actively against 1, and doing absolutely nothing to prepare for 2.
Fantastic!
The 8th of May....the 8th of May.
The former Labour Mayor of Halton standing for UKIP. pic.twitter.com/wXRV9F5sVI via @HouseOfTraitors
Arf.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxRqMJHG56A
The same process like Yugoslavia or the USSR, the wealthier states left first.
He's called it for the Cons!
http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/ukip-campaign-trail-roger-helmer/4091
I'm waiting for a poll before I decide if its a CON hold.
He is an ex Conservative, he is old, he is more like the guy that won a massive majority in 2010 than any of the others.. who knows.?
I havent bet. But I am tempted at 5/1
Con 763
UKIP 537
Lab 193
Lib dem 24
Ind 70
(lib dem 24 hahahahahahahahaha)
'Nonsense. Johann makes terrific headlines. At least one every six months.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/education/johann-lamont-s-name-spelled-wrong-in-exam-1-3392857
Gives a whole new meaning to petty point scoring.
The politicians do not get Farage - shouting at him, haranguing him, makes him the protest vote people want #bbcqt
Thomas Evans @ThomasEvansUKIP 58m
#bbcqt Farage tears it up with a audience arousing comment. Bumblebee finishes with a snide Policy comment.
Ben Glaze @benglaze 59m
worrying that MPs from three big parties don't realise that shouting down @Nigel_Farage makes them look terrible and proves his point #bbcqt
A few facts to counter your fantasy:
1. What Conservative majority? You didn't manage it last time against Brown. And when was the last time a Government increased its vote share?
2. Whatever happened to the Lisbon referendum that Cameron promised?
3. How did that AV referendum work out for the LibDems? Scuppered by Cameron, perchance? And you expect Ukippers to fall for the same trick?
4. Why promise a referendum anyway? That is for parties that would never form a UK Government i.e. UKIP and SNP. A party expecting to form a majority government should either say EU out or in. A referendum should only be offered if part of a coalition deal.
Poor result for Labour, decent for UKIP, OK for the Conservatives.
ANC 251
DA 88
EFF 23
IFP 10
NFP 7
UDM 5
VF PLUS 4
COPE 3
ACDP 3
AIC 3
AGANG 1
PAC 1
APC 1
only issue seems to be a seat that may flip between DA/ANC and whether APC will make it into parliament.
Still extremely proportional. Loosemore-Hanby Index of around 1.2%.
(UK 2010 was 23%, the most disproportional in the developed world.)
2010 splits
Conservatives
Today:Cons:78;LAB:3; LD:1;UKIP:17; GN:0
Th'sdy:Cons:77;LAB:4; LD:2;UKIP:16; GN:2
Wed'dy:Cons:74;LAB:4; LD:2;UKIP:18; GN:1
Labour:
Today :Cons:3;LAB:81;LD:3;UKIP:7;GN:2
Th'sdy: Cons:6;LAB;83;LD:1;UKIP:7;GN:2
Wed'dy:Cons:7;LAB:80;LD:1;UKIP:9;GN:1
LibDem
Today: Cons:19;LAB:30;LD:29;UKIP:9;GN:11
Th'sday:Cons:17;LAB:26;LD:32;UKIP:14;GN:7
Wed'dy:Cons:16;LAB:29;LD:34;UKIP:12;GN:5