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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: May 8th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: May 8th 2014
Fenland (located between Huntingdonshire and King’s Lynn) is about a bedrock of Conservative support as you can possibly get.
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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
#swingback
Early indicator of how Newark might go?
The tories just like labour continue to fritter away the wealth of our children and grandchildren to purchase electoral advantage where is the actual difference?
Neither is prepared to take the hard decisions and instead prefer to kick the can down the road and hope those as yet ineligble to vote can carry the burden.
Labour and Conservative are merely to cheeks of the same arse leaving the lib dems as the orifice between them. No before anyone says it I do not think UKIP are necessarily going to be any better but as a wise man once said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing again and again while hoping the outcome will be different. That to me about sums up voting for one of the traditional three
@AlanBrooke
Sound stuff, especially on the EU referendum.
Count me in as CCC member number 2. I wonder if, in years to come having, a low party number will confer the same sort of secular sainthood that it did in the Communist Party? I hope not but it might give our grandchildren something to talk about over dinner.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2
And finally... This is my readers letter of the day, in the Telegraph... pic.twitter.com/TbSGdupoE1
DailySunday Politics @daily_politics 4h
Friday's guests of the day are @JamesDelingpole and @OwenJones84 joining @afneil from 1200 #bbcdp
PM: TSE (first among equals)
Home Office: Life in a market town (obvious, give him Justice as well)
Foreign Office: SeanT (a little weakness for China but his heart is in the right place)
Defence: Andy Cooke (knows what he is talking about and very sound on the RN)
Chancellor: Charles (at least he knows how to ready a balance sheet and money is in his DNA)
Energy: Jossias Jessup (getting an engineer in there must be a good thing
Transport: Dr. Sunil (who else could it be, trains trains and more trains)
Education: Southam Observer (talks a good game on the subject can he deliver it?)
Trade and Industry: AlanBrooke (of course)
DCMS: Me (because I'd want to abolish it)
DfID: Me (because after I'd abolished DCMS I could abolish this department next)
Meanwhile the PM is very confident: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/08/david-cameron-hosts-dup-mps-in-lavish-downing-street-reception
Also, I object to a trains enthusiast running Transport - granted, trains are great in that you can sleep in them, but what the car lovers of our society? Are they to be neglected?
I revisited my birthplace today(Crosby) first time for 40 years,well Blundellsands actually.
Wow many changes,and much the same.
I really wanted to visit the Carnegie,but it was permanently closed,surely an act of political vandalism by the Labour controlled Sefton council, What would Carnegie have thought if his gift had been thrown away like this,shameful.
Corrie park looked sad and neglected,bowling greens a field of weeds,and the putting green just mud,but the Erratic boulder still there,and the boating lake. The Crown buildings all but gone,the BS gone,the George gone(I think). The swimming baths gone but replaced,Seafield renamed,St Marys has got rid of the evil Christian Brothers and got girls,Merchants still looking fine.
My former home looked better than I remember,and the Gormley statues down below the erosion looked great.Lunch at the Pheasant,then Formby and Southport.
Rod ,I am sure this all sounds familiar,great day out.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead falls to just one point: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
Lead at 1% for SECOND TIME IN THREE DAYS!!!
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead falls to just one point: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
At this rate, when crossover does happen it'll be pasted 50 times in a minute
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Labour's current poll position is the worst for the party since early 2012 - before Osborne’s 2012 Budget
Is he chairing? Thought Lucas on as well?
"I do acknowledge that for historical, geopolitical and economic reasons the case of the UK may be seen as a special one. Precisely because of this, it would be a mistake to transform an exception for the UK into a rule for everybody else"
Sounds like what amounts to treason for an EU bureaucrat given their usual positions on such arguments. I've only been online a short while, anyone know what's brought this on from him?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-27325980
http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scotland-and-wales-bond-after-independence-1-3402928
NB. 5 poll rolling average - Lab 35.4, Con 33.6
But in terms of Lab absolute vote share, Lab position is now the worst it has been since Summer 2010.
See Anthony's graph - Lab score tonight (ie if graph were updated again tonight) is 35.4%.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
Consider "According to the Council’s guideline on seriousness, culpability is determined by the
extent to which the offender intends to cause harm – the worse the harm intended, the
greater the offender’s culpability."
On one level, the victim's actions may endear in the perpretator certain facts leading him to believe that no harm was being done. On the other hand, not only is this not the victim's culpability but the perpetrator's culpability in light of the victim's actions, but at the end of the day the victim's actions are never constitutive of the perpetrator's intention to cause harm but are merely the background in which it sits.
Having a trains' man in charge at transport may not be as bad as you fear for car lovers, especially if the right chap is chosen. The alternative might be to put Jessup in at Transport and Socrates in at Energy, not sure you'd like that any better.
Anyway, if you don't like my picks why not come up with your own. This is a game of PB Fanatsy Cabinets after all.
1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 3, 2.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Average = 2.1%
Even I was not serious about a Department for the Eradication of Government Departments. It would need a much better name.
PMQs would be fun.
Mr Speaker, The Leader of the Opposition, like his party, reminds me of my boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
That sort of thing.
And Minister for Fun.
Free love and anything goes in a Fett-led department.
Kingston Council
CON Control 1/2
NOC 5/2
LD Control 5/1
LAB Control 100/1
I'd be a dismissive of any French President which would lead to problems.
Things have changed pretty rapidly in the last month - this could be a key moment.
Labour:
-Helped bugger up the nations finances
-Have a weak leader who sounds like an out of touch posh boy just as much as his Conservative counterpart
-Don't seem to have a clear economic policy other than borrow and spend
Given that the economy is turning and the sheer amount of cack that the country has been through now appears to be on their way out, why should Labour have a lead?
The only bigger variable you have the possibility of the Conservatives leaking more votes on the right to UKIP.
Those on the right need to get a bit more ambitious, being behind, being level isn't good enough nor is it to be celebrated. Its not as if Labour is sh*t hot.
Crikey, we might just as well name it the Ministry for War and have done with it.
I didn't think both were possible concurrently.
Con 1/2 (SJ, PP)
LD 5/2 (Lad, PP)
UKIP 10/1 (Lad)
Lab 20/1 (Lad)
How to lose vote share without losing a single voter
http://hopisen.com/2014/how-to-lose-vote-share-without-losing-a-single-voter/
Assume we have a Populus in the morning. I wonder if it will tighten too.
The (normal) electoral cycle is such that from here the Oppositions position can only get worse (outside the normal ebb and flow of day to day polls)
Between now and polling day Labours position can only get worse, IMO, which means by May 7th 2010 the Conservatives should have a fairly modest lead in most polls (perhaps 5%?)
Not enough to secure an outright majority, probably, but enough to win again in terms of votes and seats and to continue to Coalition for five more years.
I'll predict ICM, as the last pollster to give the Conservatives a lead in March 2012, will be the first pollster to show them back in the lead this summer or autumn.
"Can we control immigration without leaving the EU?"
UKIP plant?!
Chuka says immigration is great, but we must control borders and stop immigrants undercutting wages
er how?
FFS! A year out, the main opposition just 1 or 2 points ahead and an insurgent party above 10%. Possibly something has changed.
And with that, and visions of Felicity Kendal running around in my head (thanks Mr. Brooke) I too am off to beddy-byes. G'night all, and thanks for the chat this evening.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/education/johann-lamont-s-name-spelled-wrong-in-exam-1-3392857
I'd also like to see power generated from all the wind and hot air produced at Westminster. I'd also put a team on developing power from the generous amount of sh*t produced in Westminster, but fear no known material could cope with such a vast tidal wave of effluent.
For transport, plan an infrastructure for roads, air and rail for fifty years into the future, using mid-case estimates. Then start building it. Pay to get roads infrastructure (e.g. potholes and others) up to German standards. Encourage people to cycle, walk and run in combination with the department of health. Have a guard on certain trains to stop people falling asleep and ending up on the South Coast.
Ah well, I'm not in London so that is passing me all by.
I was looking to see what Labour's biggest lead was during this Parliament and as far as I can see it was 16% with TNS/BRMB in September 2012;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
Even then they never broke out of their 45% straight jacket.
Some of said at the time that Labour/Ed simply wasn't doing well enough.
bring it on!
Ed is no Dave.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-police-will-soon-patrol-the-streets-of-paris-2014-5?IR=T
Sadly no thread as yet on which to post comments from Morris re the Spanish GP. My sole betting intention thus far is to have a pint of Old Speckled Hen on Grosjean achieving a points, i.e. first 10 finish, for which those nice people at SkyBet are offering odds of 2/1.
http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/08/despite-concerns-about-governance-ukrainians-want-to-remain-one-country/
54% of Crimeans want regions to be able to secede.
Two peas of the same pod.