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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft teases us about his latest poll of the margin

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  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Quincel said:

    I am glad the Left have got their act together for the Euros, is there any prospect of NO2EU picking up a seat anywhere? It might be a wasted vote, and their quasi-protectionist side is one of the worst aspects of economic illiteracy to blight the "right-minded", but it would be good to do something in memory of Bob Crow. Not only did he have a genuine commitment to his cause, one which was exercised with unusual effectiveness, but no man has done so much to make me get out on my own two legs and grab some exercise.

    Absolutely none I suspect, they've simply failed to make any impact on the crowded stage of minor parties. I would expect them to lose a majority of their deposits, too.
    Is it still 2.5% to keep the deposit in the Euros?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    : "I don't care if you disagree with us, I don't care if you think we're better off being governed by Cameron, Clegg or Miliband, I don't care if you think uncontrolled immigration is good for Britain, I don't care if you criticise us for wanting to be a free independent country, and not under that flag, anthem and preposterous president whose name no-one knows.

    "I don't care what you call us. You can call us right-wing, left-wing, you can call us small minded - I don't care what you call us.

    "But from this moment on please do not ever call us a racist party. We are not a racist party."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27315328
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    I agree with the Policy Exchange's report that immigrants shouldn't be considered as a single group. Please can think tanks in future work out things like contribution to the exchequer by each community? We can thus compare the value of American immigrants versus German immigrants versus Jamaican immigrants versus Bangladeshi immigrants.

    By 2051, a significant proportion of that population will be of mixed white/non-White background. Currently, people of mixed race are all designated as ethnic minorities (prior to 2001, they were designated as either White, black or Asian), but they may not be so designated in 2051.
    Marriages between immigrants and those that lived here previously are the best hope of cohesive society in my opinion
    Absolutely agree. And sadly inter-marriage is happening at very low rates among some ethnic groups. It would be great if they could follow the example of immigrants to the US, who marry outside their group in large numbers. Unfortunately, key segments of the UK BME population prefer to keep to their own.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeK said:

    The moment you have all been waiting for has at last arrived.

    The MikeK Forecast for the May 22nd EU results:

    UKIP ...... 39.3%
    Labour... 25.2%
    Tory ...... 18.5%
    L/Dem... 5.6%
    Greens... 4.0%
    An IFE.... 2.7%
    Others... 4.7%

    How about a fun bet, since you are so sure?

    Every full percentage point UKIP is below 39% you pay £1.00 to the OGH server fund. Every fully percentage point above 39%, I pay in £1.00.

    Deal?
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    isam said:

    : "I don't care if you disagree with us, I don't care if you think we're better off being governed by Cameron, Clegg or Miliband, I don't care if you think uncontrolled immigration is good for Britain, I don't care if you criticise us for wanting to be a free independent country, and not under that flag, anthem and preposterous president whose name no-one knows.

    "I don't care what you call us. You can call us right-wing, left-wing, you can call us small minded - I don't care what you call us.

    "But from this moment on please do not ever call us a racist party. We are not a racist party."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27315328

    Fair enough. That's a powerful rallying cry from Farage. I agree with him actually - I don't think he or his party is racist.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    : "I don't care if you disagree with us, I don't care if you think we're better off being governed by Cameron, Clegg or Miliband, I don't care if you think uncontrolled immigration is good for Britain, I don't care if you criticise us for wanting to be a free independent country, and not under that flag, anthem and preposterous president whose name no-one knows.

    "I don't care what you call us. You can call us right-wing, left-wing, you can call us small minded - I don't care what you call us.

    "But from this moment on please do not ever call us a racist party. We are not a racist party."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27315328

    Matthew D'Ancona was doing this again in his column today - even quoting people that were kicked out the party as being the views of UKIP. It's amazing the amount of attention the press gives to low level council candidates saying racist things when they're UKIP and disciplined by the party. Meanwhile, Labour has people like Diane Abbott, who believe white people love to play divide and rule, and yet remain in good standing, but the press quickly forgets about it.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Quincel said:

    I am glad the Left have got their act together for the Euros, is there any prospect of NO2EU picking up a seat anywhere? It might be a wasted vote, and their quasi-protectionist side is one of the worst aspects of economic illiteracy to blight the "right-minded", but it would be good to do something in memory of Bob Crow. Not only did he have a genuine commitment to his cause, one which was exercised with unusual effectiveness, but no man has done so much to make me get out on my own two legs and grab some exercise.

    Absolutely none I suspect, they've simply failed to make any impact on the crowded stage of minor parties. I would expect them to lose a majority of their deposits, too.
    There isn't really a crowded stage of minor parties as far as the Left are concerned at this election, by the way. Socialist Labour did pretty well last time out (even in the south) but they're not contesting this time. The Left choice is essentially Greens vs NO2EU.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2014
    @Dannythefink: I found this a useful link: shouldivoteukip.co.uk
    http://t.co/L9NV5h8cQt
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    AndyJS said:

    Official South African election results page:

    http://www.elections.org.za/resultsNPE2014/

    What's the record for longest election winning streak in genuine democracies I wonder? I believe the Liberal Democratic Party had a near 50 year streak but for a brief stint in oppostion of less than a year, so some ways to go for the ANC.

  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Quincel said:

    BobaFett said:

    Next said:

    BobaFett said:

    Labour lead trebles in one day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Quick. Produce some more black and white PEBs. With cats.
    In all seriousness I question the value of a daily poll - it really is laughable how much we hang on what is an MOE variation (I am just as guilty as the next man). Would it not be better for YouGov to do a weekly poll, ideally on a Thursday night, with a larger sample, so crossbreaks etc were at least meaningful?
    Yes, but The Sun offered them a contract making a daily poll after the last election and would you turn down that money/publicity if you were Peter Kelner? Precisely. You're right, but I hardly blame YG given their situation.
    True enough - I don't blame them at all
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BobaFett said:

    @Mike - my reading also but I could be wildly wrong!

    First time I read it, it came across as negative because I thought it was the Conservative Spring Conference - i.e. (likely) bad for Cameron (although you can't say either flat or worse than last time)

    Second time around, only implication I think you can take is that Labour is close to 40% in the marginals. Presumably that means that UKIP are eating into Labour's vote in their safe seats. (which polling company does Lord A use - Survation? - and does someone have the most recent polls from them?
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    O/T - I note the policy exchange report that suggests 30% of the UK population may be a non-British minority by 2050, up from the current 14%.

    Am I the only one worried about such levels of projected immigration? Even with the recent additional controls?

    The only civilised response to such studies seems to be to celebrate it. But I really worry about the cohesiveness and sociocultural integrity of such a Britain. I see very few people tactfully and measuredly articulating these concerns in either mainstream politics or the media.

    If society cannot handle such changes, it was not very conhesive to begin with, so I tend to let future me worry about such things.
    The big question is whether multiracial societies are more successful than monocultural. As the latter - low immigration societies like China, Korea, Japan - will be our 'opponents' in the upcoming economic face-off.

    The big irony for anti immigration rightwingers is that high immigration societies - Singapore, USA, Switzerland - tend to be rightwing, as the genetic bonds break down and voters become less tolerant of welfare and high taxes for non relatives.

    The future of the UK is rightwing. Note how monocultural Scotland is further left of England.
    Is Scotland monocultural?
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Why are you flying from Perth to Bangkok via Dubai?

    Seems a bit long winded!
    Juggling freebies. Also Perth v hard to get to. Also I wanted to see Dubai, which I will, later.
    Beware of Dubai airport. 50% of the time passengers have to walk down the steps onto the tarmac. Luckily for me it was only 15 degrees, at 7am in February.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,834
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    : "I don't care if you disagree with us, I don't care if you think we're better off being governed by Cameron, Clegg or Miliband, I don't care if you think uncontrolled immigration is good for Britain, I don't care if you criticise us for wanting to be a free independent country, and not under that flag, anthem and preposterous president whose name no-one knows.

    "I don't care what you call us. You can call us right-wing, left-wing, you can call us small minded - I don't care what you call us.

    "But from this moment on please do not ever call us a racist party. We are not a racist party."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27315328

    Matthew D'Ancona was doing this again in his column today - even quoting people that were kicked out the party as being the views of UKIP. It's amazing the amount of attention the press gives to low level council candidates saying racist things when they're UKIP and disciplined by the party. Meanwhile, Labour has people like Diane Abbott, who believe white people love to play divide and rule, and yet remain in good standing, but the press quickly forgets about it.
    I read that article by Matthew D'Ancona in the ES tonight. It might have finally pushed me into the UKIP column for the EU elections.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The Cuckoo Clock ‏@markdaventry 1m

    The SWP have left the UKIP rally and have gone round to Cassandra's to discuss what place indigenous Peruvian art has in a socialist 21 c
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Andy McSmith in Indy says the BBC organised an event last Tue for LibLabCon spinners which discussed how to defeat UKIP. Can that be right?"

    twitter.com/oflynndirector/status/463959260469420032
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Why are you flying from Perth to Bangkok via Dubai?

    Seems a bit long winded!
    Juggling freebies. Also Perth v hard to get to. Also I wanted to see Dubai, which I will, later.
    Beware of Dubai airport. 50% of the time passengers have to walk down the steps onto the tarmac. Luckily for me it was only 15 degrees, at 7am in February.
    I swear to God it was like 40 degrees for me at past midnight (to be fair, it was late August, but come on, it was midnight for heaven's sake). I almost passed out. Then again, I do not travel well to begin with, but as SeanT says, Perth is hard to get to.

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Not much of a future if you fly 8,700 miles to cover 3,300 miles!

  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Socrates said:

    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.

    For my sins, I like Farage. I agree with him on almost nothing, but I do like him and think he is a good speaker. He also strikes me as a decent bloke who would, discovering you were a leftie, buy you a drink and try to talk you out of it.

    On your specific point, he does have a point about this, as you say. He was on Andrew Marr on Sunday and pointed out a whole bunch of nasty examples of the main parties' candidates which received no attention. I thought "fair enough".
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    : "I don't care if you disagree with us, I don't care if you think we're better off being governed by Cameron, Clegg or Miliband, I don't care if you think uncontrolled immigration is good for Britain, I don't care if you criticise us for wanting to be a free independent country, and not under that flag, anthem and preposterous president whose name no-one knows.

    "I don't care what you call us. You can call us right-wing, left-wing, you can call us small minded - I don't care what you call us.

    "But from this moment on please do not ever call us a racist party. We are not a racist party."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27315328

    Matthew D'Ancona was doing this again in his column today - even quoting people that were kicked out the party as being the views of UKIP. It's amazing the amount of attention the press gives to low level council candidates saying racist things when they're UKIP and disciplined by the party. Meanwhile, Labour has people like Diane Abbott, who believe white people love to play divide and rule, and yet remain in good standing, but the press quickly forgets about it.
    I read that article by Matthew D'Ancona in the ES tonight. It might have finally pushed me into the UKIP column for the EU elections.
    Agreed. I like a lot of UKIP people, like Farage, and James, and Nuttall, but I feel a bit more alienated from them when they pick people like Helmer. But any qualms fade into the deep background when I read smug smears from people like D'Ancona and Toynbee dismissing anyone that has concerns about immigration or the EU as being small minded racists.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    Steven Woolfe is an impressive speaker when I have seen him on tv, I hope he stands for parliament in a seat where we have a chance

    "Winston McKenzie, a Jamaican-born former boxer, was met with a standing ovation when he said he had challenged Mr Farage for the leadership. He said: “What does that say about Ukip being racist, a black man running for the leadership? I’m black and I’m proud and I’ll shout it out loud.”

    Pauline McQueen, a council candidate in Tower Hamlets, East London, told the rally the party is open to all people, adding: “Being a black Jew, sixty years of age, I know what racism is.”

    Steven Woolf, the party’s economics spokesman, said he was proud to be British, mixed race and a member of Ukip, and told a heckler who had infiltrated the rally he had been called a “n-----“ at school.

    Amjad Bashir, the party’s small business spokesman who was born in Pakistan, said the party had been the victim of “evil lies” and said it is the “most representative party in British politics.”

    He said: “I find racism – and I have experienced it – abhorrent. Take a look at all the faces and skin colours represents on this stage and tell me Ukip is a racist party.” "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10815151/Ukip-puts-ethnic-minority-candidates-centre-stage-in-bid-to-kill-racism-claims.html
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Quite an impressive PEB by the Green Party just been shown on BBC1 after the news. Positive message.
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Why are you flying from Perth to Bangkok via Dubai?

    Seems a bit long winded!
    Juggling freebies. Also Perth v hard to get to. Also I wanted to see Dubai, which I will, later.
    Beware of Dubai airport. 50% of the time passengers have to walk down the steps onto the tarmac. Luckily for me it was only 15 degrees, at 7am in February.
    I swear to God it was like 40 degrees for me at past midnight (to be fair, it was late August, but come on, it was midnight for heaven's sake). I almost passed out. Then again, I do not travel well to begin with, but as SeanT says, Perth is hard to get to.

    The only time I have been to New York, it was in the middle of an ugly heatwave in June, 2008 I think. It was 90f at midnight, and utterly disgusting - I simply couldn't believe it. We went to a rooftop bar, thinking this would cool us off. Of course, it didn't, my wife was sweating in her best gear at bloody midnight for crying out loud in the open air. She was not happy, and not was I. It was grim. It coloured my view of the city.
    Next time I go it will be in autumn, hopefully in the rain!
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    edited May 2014

    Quincel said:

    I am glad the Left have got their act together for the Euros, is there any prospect of NO2EU picking up a seat anywhere? It might be a wasted vote, and their quasi-protectionist side is one of the worst aspects of economic illiteracy to blight the "right-minded", but it would be good to do something in memory of Bob Crow. Not only did he have a genuine commitment to his cause, one which was exercised with unusual effectiveness, but no man has done so much to make me get out on my own two legs and grab some exercise.

    Absolutely none I suspect, they've simply failed to make any impact on the crowded stage of minor parties. I would expect them to lose a majority of their deposits, too.
    Is it still 2.5% to keep the deposit in the Euros?
    Yeah, 2.5%. I personally don't count the minor minor parties as being left/right etc, since for my money the vast majority of voters don't even know they exist. So until they make some progress to get recognition, whether the left or right is crowded doesn't impact them - they start off competing with all the tiddlers for attention.

    (EDIT: Obviously I do think No2EU is left wing, I mean I don't count it as a factor for their electoral prospects.)
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    isam said:

    Steven Woolfe is an impressive speaker when I have seen him on tv, I hope he stands for parliament in a seat where we have a chance

    "Winston McKenzie, a Jamaican-born former boxer, was met with a standing ovation when he said he had challenged Mr Farage for the leadership. He said: “What does that say about Ukip being racist, a black man running for the leadership? I’m black and I’m proud and I’ll shout it out loud.”

    Pauline McQueen, a council candidate in Tower Hamlets, East London, told the rally the party is open to all people, adding: “Being a black Jew, sixty years of age, I know what racism is.”

    Steven Woolf, the party’s economics spokesman, said he was proud to be British, mixed race and a member of Ukip, and told a heckler who had infiltrated the rally he had been called a “n-----“ at school.

    Amjad Bashir, the party’s small business spokesman who was born in Pakistan, said the party had been the victim of “evil lies” and said it is the “most representative party in British politics.”

    He said: “I find racism – and I have experienced it – abhorrent. Take a look at all the faces and skin colours represents on this stage and tell me Ukip is a racist party.” "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10815151/Ukip-puts-ethnic-minority-candidates-centre-stage-in-bid-to-kill-racism-claims.html

    I think Winston Mackensie has now stood for pretty much every party - possibly excluding the BNP!
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Why are you flying from Perth to Bangkok via Dubai?

    Seems a bit long winded!
    Also Perth v hard to get to.
    There's a daily direct flight on Thai from Perth to Bangkok and several via SIN, KUL or CGK.....

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    edited May 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:

    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.

    For my sins, I like Farage. I agree with him on almost nothing, but I do like him and think he is a good speaker. He also strikes me as a decent bloke who would, discovering you were a leftie, buy you a drink and try to talk you out of it.

    On your specific point, he does have a point about this, as you say. He was on Andrew Marr on Sunday and pointed out a whole bunch of nasty examples of the main parties' candidates which received no attention. I thought "fair enough".
    He does have a point, although I do think he and UKIP sometimes overdo the whole victim card and conspiracy language to describe how the other parties engage in dirty tactics because they don't want UKIP to win (of course they do, why wouldn't they). It's a strategy - based on truth and skillfully and legitimately employed, but a strategy nonetheless.

    Before anyone jumps on my throat about that, please note I said it was based on truth. It's an issue of the strength of tone they employ in making the point in order to cheer their supporters, in the same way Labour might present as more left or more centre on specific issues to appeal to the base or the floating voters, in that it might broadly speaking be true, but it's artfully framed for maximum effect.

    One aspect of that of course is the pretense UKIP don't engage in political behaviours like the others (that is, non-partisan behaviours like spinning), which I find no less ridiculous than if the Tories pretended the same.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:

    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.

    For my sins, I like Farage. I agree with him on almost nothing, but I do like him and think he is a good speaker. He also strikes me as a decent bloke who would, discovering you were a leftie, buy you a drink and try to talk you out of it.

    On your specific point, he does have a point about this, as you say. He was on Andrew Marr on Sunday and pointed out a whole bunch of nasty examples of the main parties' candidates which received no attention. I thought "fair enough".
    He does have a point, although I do think he and UKIP sometimes overdo the whole victim card and conspiracy language to describe how the other parties engage in dirty tactics because they don't want UKIP to win (of course they do, why wouldn't they). It's a strategy - based on truth and skillfully and legitimately employed, but a strategy nonetheless.

    Before anyone jumps on my throat about that, please note I said it was based on truth. It's an issue of the strength of tone they employ in making the point in order to cheer their supporters, in the same way Labour might present as more left or more centre on specific issues to appeal to the base or the floating voters, in that it might broadly speaking be true, but it's artfully framed for maximum effect.
    Here is an example of it not really working

    Raheem Kassam @RaheemJKassam
    It's getting spicy in the #ukip room. Another 5 people just escorted out for shouting "racist" at the speaker who is half black, half Jewish
    8:02 PM - 7 May 2014
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.

    For all the lofty loony leftiness of Suzanne Moore's Guardian article on Jeremy Clarkson and UKIP, this paragraph stood out:

    [Jeremy Clarkson and UKIP] seek not only to put a brake on social progress, but to go backwards. This backlash has to be understood to be confronted. This is about race and a whole lot more. It is about a set of attitudes that never went away but are now sold as "what people really think". Sure, some people do really think this. They feel let down and confused by rapid social change.

    When potential UKIP voters tell you that they like Farage because "unlike other politicians he says what he thinks" what they mean is that Farage 'says what they think'. More dangerously, many interpret what Farage is saying as legitimising thinking which goes beyond UKIP's publicly expressed boundaries. In other words, UKIP and Farage, knowing the consequences of what they are saying, are encouraging "closet racists" to come out and unashamedly vote for them.

    Farage and UKIP supporters will of course vehemently deny this is their intent, but there remains sufficient doubt to justify close scrutiny of UKIP's public supporters. In the circumstances, it is quite legitimate to judge a party and its leader by its activists and candidates.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Why are you flying from Perth to Bangkok via Dubai?

    Seems a bit long winded!
    Also Perth v hard to get to.
    There's a daily direct flight on Thai from Perth to Bangkok and several via SIN, KUL or CGK.....

    Who would want to go there anyway? I'm reliably told that Perth is a very dull, soulless place surrounded by desert. Is this wrong?
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    kle4 said:

    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:

    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.

    For my sins, I like Farage. I agree with him on almost nothing, but I do like him and think he is a good speaker. He also strikes me as a decent bloke who would, discovering you were a leftie, buy you a drink and try to talk you out of it.

    On your specific point, he does have a point about this, as you say. He was on Andrew Marr on Sunday and pointed out a whole bunch of nasty examples of the main parties' candidates which received no attention. I thought "fair enough".
    He does have a point, although I do think he and UKIP sometimes overdo the whole victim card and conspiracy language to describe how the other parties engage in dirty tactics because they don't want UKIP to win (of course they do, why wouldn't they). It's a strategy - based on truth and skillfully and legitimately employed, but a strategy nonetheless.

    Before anyone jumps on my throat about that, please note I said it was based on truth. It's an issue of the strength of tone they employ in making the point in order to cheer their supporters, in the same way Labour might present as more left or more centre on specific issues to appeal to the base or the floating voters, in that it might broadly speaking be true, but it's artfully framed for maximum effect.

    One aspect of that of course is the pretense UKIP don't engage in political behaviours like the others (that is, non-partisan behaviours like spinning), which I find no less ridiculous than if the Tories pretended the same.
    I suppose as the interloper they have to work quite hard to keep their vote on board amid the endless stuff from the Tories (vote Nige, get Ed etc)
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Fantastic goal by Toure on Match of the Day.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    AveryLP said:

    Socrates said:

    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.

    For all the lofty loony leftiness of Suzanne Moore's Guardian article on Jeremy Clarkson and UKIP, this paragraph stood out:

    [Jeremy Clarkson and UKIP] seek not only to put a brake on social progress, but to go backwards. This backlash has to be understood to be confronted. This is about race and a whole lot more. It is about a set of attitudes that never went away but are now sold as "what people really think". Sure, some people do really think this. They feel let down and confused by rapid social change.

    When potential UKIP voters tell you that they like Farage because "unlike other politicians he says what he thinks" what they mean is that Farage 'says what they think'. More dangerously, many interpret what Farage is saying as legitimising thinking which goes beyond UKIP's publicly expressed boundaries. In other words, UKIP and Farage, knowing the consequences of what they are saying, are encouraging "closet racists" to come out and unashamedly vote for them.

    Farage and UKIP supporters will of course vehemently deny this is their intent, but there remains sufficient doubt to justify close scrutiny of UKIP's candidates and public supporters.
    I disagree with that, I think it's misplaced cynicism about the voters. People don't like Farage because he says what they think, it is (at least in part) because he is honest about whoo he is unlike the main party leaders. Witness Cameron's position on the EU, spending 10 years trying to avoid being forced into a firm stance. Witness Clegg and Miliband always talking in general hints and waffle, but avoiding questions about what precisely they mean and think. Farage just says it, and that's very refreshing.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    : "I don't care if you disagree with us, I don't care if you think we're better off being governed by Cameron, Clegg or Miliband, I don't care if you think uncontrolled immigration is good for Britain, I don't care if you criticise us for wanting to be a free independent country, and not under that flag, anthem and preposterous president whose name no-one knows.

    "I don't care what you call us. You can call us right-wing, left-wing, you can call us small minded - I don't care what you call us.

    "But from this moment on please do not ever call us a racist party. We are not a racist party."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27315328

    Matthew D'Ancona was doing this again in his column today - even quoting people that were kicked out the party as being the views of UKIP. It's amazing the amount of attention the press gives to low level council candidates saying racist things when they're UKIP and disciplined by the party. Meanwhile, Labour has people like Diane Abbott, who believe white people love to play divide and rule, and yet remain in good standing, but the press quickly forgets about it.
    I read that article by Matthew D'Ancona in the ES tonight. It might have finally pushed me into the UKIP column for the EU elections.
    Agreed. I like a lot of UKIP people, like Farage, and James, and Nuttall, but I feel a bit more alienated from them when they pick people like Helmer. But any qualms fade into the deep background when I read smug smears from people like D'Ancona and Toynbee dismissing anyone that has concerns about immigration or the EU as being small minded racists.
    Look at it this way. People like Puffball Tory Boy and Polly Tuscany win thousands of votes for UKIP.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    BobaFett said:

    kle4 said:

    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:

    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.

    F

    On your specific point, he does have a point about this, as you say. He was on Andrew Marr on Sunday and pointed out a whole bunch of nasty examples of the main parties' candidates which received no attention. I thought "fair enough".
    He does have a point, although I do think he and UKIP sometimes overdo the whole victim card and conspiracy language to describe how the other parties engage in dirty tactics because they don't want UKIP to win (of course they do, why wouldn't they). It's a strategy - based on truth and skillfully and legitimately employed, but a strategy nonetheless.

    Before anyone jumps on my throat about that, please note I said it was based on truth. It's an issue of the strength of tone they employ in making the point in order to cheer their supporters, in the same way Labour might present as more left or more centre on specific issues to appeal to the base or the floating voters, in that it might broadly speaking be true, but it's artfully framed for maximum effect.

    One aspect of that of course is the pretense UKIP don't engage in political behaviours like the others (that is, non-partisan behaviours like spinning), which I find no less ridiculous than if the Tories pretended the same.
    I suppose as the interloper they have to work quite hard to keep their vote on board amid the endless stuff from the Tories (vote Nige, get Ed etc)
    Oh it's fair enough, and they have had to fight like hell to get to the position they currently are, and will need to scrap like the best of them to stay there or grow further, I don't begrudge them that. I do however think that they are, naturally, not immune to the worst parts of the great game that is politics, which clashes a little with their message of being the outsider (the others are not as blatant as trying to suggest only they are honest/clear/etc, merely because they have so much more baggage as government/established parties it would be preposterous to do so, though they still try)
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Why are you flying from Perth to Bangkok via Dubai?

    Seems a bit long winded!
    Juggling freebies. Also Perth v hard to get to. Also I wanted to see Dubai, which I will, later.
    t as SeanT says, Perth is hard to get to.
    Anywhere that's got 8 direct flights a day from Singapore is not "hard to get to"..

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    AveryLP said:

    Socrates said:

    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.

    For all the lofty loony leftiness of Suzanne Moore's Guardian article on Jeremy Clarkson and UKIP, this paragraph stood out:

    [Jeremy Clarkson and UKIP] seek not only to put a brake on social progress, but to go backwards. This backlash has to be understood to be confronted. This is about race and a whole lot more. It is about a set of attitudes that never went away but are now sold as "what people really think". Sure, some people do really think this. They feel let down and confused by rapid social change.

    When potential UKIP voters tell you that they like Farage because "unlike other politicians he says what he thinks" what they mean is that Farage 'says what they think'. More dangerously, many interpret what Farage is saying as legitimising thinking which goes beyond UKIP's publicly expressed boundaries. In other words, UKIP and Farage, knowing the consequences of what they are saying, are encouraging "closet racists" to come out and unashamedly vote for them.

    Farage and UKIP supporters will of course vehemently deny this is their intent, but there remains sufficient doubt to justify close scrutiny of UKIP's public supporters. In the circumstances, it is quite legitimate to judge a party and its leader by its activists and candidates.
    However, it's preferable to live in a society where people can say what they think, even if offensive, rather than one where they are censored.

    Who would want to live in Suzanne Moore's ideal society.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BobaFett said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Why are you flying from Perth to Bangkok via Dubai?

    Seems a bit long winded!
    Juggling freebies. Also Perth v hard to get to. Also I wanted to see Dubai, which I will, later.
    Beware of Dubai airport. 50% of the time passengers have to walk down the steps onto the tarmac. Luckily for me it was only 15 degrees, at 7am in February.
    I swear to God it was like 40 degrees for me at past midnight (to be fair, it was late August, but come on, it was midnight for heaven's sake). I almost passed out. Then again, I do not travel well to begin with, but as SeanT says, Perth is hard to get to.

    The only time I have been to New York, it was in the middle of an ugly heatwave in June, 2008 I think. It was 90f at midnight, and utterly disgusting - I simply couldn't believe it. We went to a rooftop bar, thinking this would cool us off. Of course, it didn't, my wife was sweating in her best gear at bloody midnight for crying out loud in the open air. She was not happy, and not was I. It was grim. It coloured my view of the city.
    Next time I go it will be in autumn, hopefully in the rain!
    Been to New York airport once, exactly a year ago, and spent two hours waiting at immigration because they had a single solitary booth open at lunchtime on a Sunday. Not very impressive from the world's "superpower".
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    : "I don't care if you disagree with us, I don't care if you think we're better off being governed by Cameron, Clegg or Miliband, I don't care if you think uncontrolled immigration is good for Britain, I don't care if you criticise us for wanting to be a free independent country, and not under that flag, anthem and preposterous president whose name no-one knows.

    "I don't care what you call us. You can call us right-wing, left-wing, you can call us small minded - I don't care what you call us.

    "But from this moment on please do not ever call us a racist party. We are not a racist party."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27315328

    Matthew D'Ancona was doing this again in his column today - even quoting people that were kicked out the party as being the views of UKIP. It's amazing the amount of attention the press gives to low level council candidates saying racist things when they're UKIP and disciplined by the party. Meanwhile, Labour has people like Diane Abbott, who believe white people love to play divide and rule, and yet remain in good standing, but the press quickly forgets about it.
    I read that article by Matthew D'Ancona in the ES tonight. It might have finally pushed me into the UKIP column for the EU elections.
    Agreed. I like a lot of UKIP people, like Farage, and James, and Nuttall, but I feel a bit more alienated from them when they pick people like Helmer. But any qualms fade into the deep background when I read smug smears from people like D'Ancona and Toynbee dismissing anyone that has concerns about immigration or the EU as being small minded racists.
    Look at it this way. People like Puffball Tory Boy and Polly Tuscany win thousands of votes for UKIP.

    This kind of thing doesn't hurt either

    http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/local/bomb-squad-called-to-deal-with-packages-addressed-to-ukip-1-6044863
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Why are you flying from Perth to Bangkok via Dubai?

    Seems a bit long winded!
    Juggling freebies. Also Perth v hard to get to. Also I wanted to see Dubai, which I will, later.
    t as SeanT says, Perth is hard to get to.
    Anywhere that's got 8 direct flights a day from Singapore is not "hard to get to"..

    I personally only meant from the UK - my choices were either through SIngapore, or through the UAE, and the latter was cheaper, which meant suffering the oppressive heat was a cost that had to be borne.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    BobaFett said:

    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Why are you flying from Perth to Bangkok via Dubai?

    Seems a bit long winded!
    Also Perth v hard to get to.
    There's a daily direct flight on Thai from Perth to Bangkok and several via SIN, KUL or CGK.....

    Who would want to go there anyway? I'm reliably told that Perth is a very dull, soulless place surrounded by desert. Is this wrong?
    SeanT was there and defending a ludicrous itinerary on the basis of Perth's "in accessibility".....if it's "free" fair enough, but don't insult the basic geography of the place!

    I enjoyed Perth - and Freo - plenty to see and do.

    As the people in Perth (under 6 hours to several major cities in Asia) say, it's Sydney and Melbourne that are "isolated" - 20 million people on the wrong side of a desert.....
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Newsnight's political panel: in denial about UKIP's popularity. And the possibility of Scottish independence.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited May 2014
    Quincel said:

    AveryLP said:

    Socrates said:

    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.

    For all the lofty loony leftiness of Suzanne Moore's Guardian article on Jeremy Clarkson and UKIP, this paragraph stood out:

    [Jeremy Clarkson and UKIP] seek not only to put a brake on social progress, but to go backwards. This backlash has to be understood to be confronted. This is about race and a whole lot more. It is about a set of attitudes that never went away but are now sold as "what people really think". Sure, some people do really think this. They feel let down and confused by rapid social change.

    When potential UKIP voters tell you that they like Farage because "unlike other politicians he says what he thinks" what they mean is that Farage 'says what they think'. More dangerously, many interpret what Farage is saying as legitimising thinking which goes beyond UKIP's publicly expressed boundaries. In other words, UKIP and Farage, knowing the consequences of what they are saying, are encouraging "closet racists" to come out and unashamedly vote for them.

    Farage and UKIP supporters will of course vehemently deny this is their intent, but there remains sufficient doubt to justify close scrutiny of UKIP's candidates and public supporters.
    I disagree with that, I think it's misplaced cynicism about the voters. People don't like Farage because he says what they think, it is (at least in part) because he is honest about whoo he is unlike the main party leaders. Witness Cameron's position on the EU, spending 10 years trying to avoid being forced into a firm stance. Witness Clegg and Miliband always talking in general hints and waffle, but avoiding questions about what precisely they mean and think. Farage just says it, and that's very refreshing.

    And this article indicates perfectly, where as a working class bod, I permanently part from the left and wouldn't vote for them if you put a gun to my head.

    Its the mix of accusations of racism (or sectarianism or whatever) then the 'they are too thick to comprehend the world changing around them' (but of course the intellectual left get it perfectly) and the final pat on the head mock sympathy 'oh you poor confused people'.

    They can go f**k themselves. That kind of talk is the methodology of a dictatorship by other means.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest SA figures - ANC 60%, DA 26%:

    http://www.elections.org.za/resultsNPE2014/
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    Quincel said:

    AveryLP said:

    Socrates said:

    This bit from Farage is bang on:

    But he accused "huge sections of the British media, defending their friends in the so-called main parties - or as we prefer to call them the legacy parties" of over-publicising the "offensive, idiotic statements made by this handful of people".

    They "have been lifted up and presented to the Great British public as if they represent the view of this party, which they do not," he said. "They never have, and they never will."


    The Matthew D'Anconas of this world should be ashamed of themselves for becoming shills in this way.

    ...

    .
    I disagree with that, I think it's misplaced cynicism about the voters. People don't like Farage because he says what they think, it is (at least in part) because he is honest about whoo he is unlike the main party leaders. Witness Cameron's position on the EU, spending 10 years trying to avoid being forced into a firm stance. Witness Clegg and Miliband always talking in general hints and waffle, but avoiding questions about what precisely they mean and think. Farage just says it, and that's very refreshing.

    Farage is no different from any other politician seeking votes. He crafts a message which he believes will be received favourably by his target audience. He filters from his messages beliefs, statements and policies which he believes will not be welcomed.

    If he was truly frank and "honest" he would have responded to allegations of financial misconduct by being open and transparent about how his allowances have been spent. Or, if he wasn't aware of the detail, he would have appointed independent auditors to inspect his and his party's books and to report on their findings.

    On policy, Farage has completely disowned and disassociated himself from his party's 2010 manifesto. This is entirely reasonable position for a political leader to take but it hardly sets him apart from other party leader as a sole paragon of consistency and virtue.

    Farage is simply a politician like all the rest, albeit less coherent and experienced than most.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    kle4 said:

    .
    I personally only meant from the UK - my choices were either through SIngapore, or through the UAE, and the latter was cheaper, which meant suffering the oppressive heat was a cost that had to be borne.

    I am a fan of the Middle East carriers - new kit and great service - the only downsides are the airports - Dubai is ok-just while Doha is a pain. If you head for Perth again you can also get there via KL and Hong Kong - both modern efficient airports.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Roger Helmer ‏@RogerHelmerMEP 19m
    Leading climate scientist joins the sceptic camp: http://is.gd/jJgHPg
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    edited May 2014
    I disagree with that, I think it's misplaced cynicism about the voters. People don't like Farage because he says what they think, it is (at least in part) because he is honest about whoo he is unlike the main party leaders. Witness Cameron's position on the EU, spending 10 years trying to avoid being forced into a firm stance. Witness Clegg and Miliband always talking in general hints and waffle, but avoiding questions about what precisely they mean and think. Farage just says it, and that's very refreshing.



    I honestly don't think it's anything to do with being 'honest about who [they] are', not precisely . The difference between Farage and the others on many, though not all, of the issues, is perhaps that Farage has a highly specific goal, whereas for the others that goal is a part of the ephemeral patchwork of issues that factor in to the more diverse goals they wish to achieve, which makes them equivocate on precise proposals.

    As a result, Farage can be concise and decisive about what he intends about his goal, and every other issue he speaks on is seen through the prism of his focus on that goal which enables him to be similarly decisive on most things, whereas the others are forever balancing this goal against that 'well I don't like the EU but benefit x is important to goal y, and of course domestic issue Z trumps all of that so not worth rocking the boat just yet', they see the situation, every situation, as more complex and that means they are automatically less forthright and bold,not because they are not honest about their core beliefs, but because they complicate the situation through their own wider goals, they are unable speak so decisively on anything.

    Farage's message and goal is simple, popular, consistent, and that means he can be so much more direct and unequivocal which is extremely refreshing. The others are so used to needing to appeal to everyone about everything, they talk in cliches without thinking and are reduced to plaintively complaining 'It's not as simple as that'.

    They might be right, but it's not an easy sell. People who are very wrong but confident and decisive trump those who are right but hesitant often. It is also worth noting that Farage can be pushed into cliche answers and politician speak when pushed, it's just that his core message is one on which he has no doubts and therefore does not waver on.

    But perhaps I am quibbling semantics again.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @AveryLP

    That all sounds like you've come up with a belief that will never change, regardless of the evidence. A dozen of UKIP's council candidates with racist beliefs, and that get kicked out of the party as a result, do not show that UKIP are racist any more than any other party. As the more open-minded of UKIP's opponents have admitted on here today, there's plenty of these types in other parties too - it's just shills in the media don't bang on about them. UKIP are not legitimising unsaid beliefs any more than Gordon Brown wanting "British jobs for British workers" or David Cameron saying "this is a Christian country".
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,302
    edited May 2014
    AndyJS Looks like a slightly improved DA performance, but still a big ANC win on first results
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    BobaFett said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    Greetings from the future. I am in the Emirates Lounge at Perth Airport en route Bangkok via Dubai. I can report that Thursday 8th May 2014 isn't so bad. It features free champagne.

    Why are you flying from Perth to Bangkok via Dubai?

    Seems a bit long winded!
    Juggling freebies. Also Perth v hard to get to. Also I wanted to see Dubai, which I will, later.
    Beware of Dubai airport. 50% of the time passengers have to walk down the steps onto the tarmac. Luckily for me it was only 15 degrees, at 7am in February.
    I swear to God it was like 40 degrees for me at past midnight (to be fair, it was late August, but come on, it was midnight for heaven's sake). I almost passed out. Then again, I do not travel well to begin with, but as SeanT says, Perth is hard to get to.

    The only time I have been to New York, it was in the middle of an ugly heatwave in June, 2008 I think. It was 90f at midnight, and utterly disgusting - I simply couldn't believe it. We went to a rooftop bar, thinking this would cool us off. Of course, it didn't, my wife was sweating in her best gear at bloody midnight for crying out loud in the open air. She was not happy, and not was I. It was grim. It coloured my view of the city.
    Next time I go it will be in autumn, hopefully in the rain!
    New York is on the same latitude as Athens, so can get warm. The best way to approach it is jet-lag free by sea from Southampton. Nice and cool, first thing in the morning when you arrive too!

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I expected Dubai airport to be ultra-modern. The place was crammed with transfer passengers and the provision of toilets was pitiful.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,302
    On the marginals, they will follow the national polls, the Tories know they need a clear lead to be largest party, narrowing the gap as they have done recently is not enough and they need to win back more UKIP defectors
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Not a bad effort by the Greens there.

    Black and white PEBs seem to be in vogue at the moment !
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    AndyJS said:

    I expected Dubai airport to be ultra-modern. The place was crammed with transfer passengers and the provision of toilets was pitiful.

    I agree it's disappointing - especially since T3 is new - not a patch on Changi. If you didn't like Dubai, don't transit Doha until the new airport opens!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,302
    Also, was preparing postal vote ballots this afternoon in the Midlands, and astonished by the number of populist, anti EU or immigration parties, about 7/11. From UKIP and BNP, to English Democrats, to No2EU, a 'Harmony' party, Nikki Sinclaire and 'An Independence from Europe'
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    HYUFD said:

    On the marginals, they will follow the national polls, the Tories know they need a clear lead to be largest party, narrowing the gap as they have done recently is not enough and they need to win back more UKIP defectors

    Really hard to see that happening. Even if we assume that a significant number are enticable out of fear of a Labour win/returning to Tory fold, might it not also be the case that if the economy is really picking up, and therefore the country appearing to be on the right course, such people might think they can remain with UKIP without fear because they presume enough other people will vote Tory and keep Labour out, or simply not worry about what impact a Labour win might have?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Grant French ‏@SteelvalleyUKIP 1h
    Sky News in Thurrock asking people who they thought was an honest politian. Only one name given Farage.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    edited May 2014
    [Jeremy Clarkson and UKIP] seek not only to put a brake on social progress, but to go backwards. This backlash has to be understood to be confronted. This is about race and a whole lot more. It is about a set of attitudes that never went away but are now sold as "what people really think". Sure, some people do really think this. They feel let down and confused by rapid social change.

    This is precisely the sort of paragraph that is making people vote UKIP !

    If anyone is confused, it is the 2 main parties (+1) by the rise of UKIP.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    UKIP rally in Westminster interrupted by hecklers - Sky News.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    With reference to Farage and how he is perceived by the mere mortals that are voters, his big advantage over Milliband, Clegg and Cameron is that he appears to speak with authenticity. You know he will be closer to saying what he believes than the other three.

    When a speaker is authentic they will connect with both those who agree with them and those who disagree with them to a much higher level than a speaker who is perceived as inauthentic.

    It is why someone like Dennis Skinner, Boris Johnson or Tony Benn, both of whom espouse(d) some pretty arcane, sometimes vindictive and frequently controversial views (to a large section of voters) are accepted without (much) malice by nearly all. They spoke with authenticity (which should not be confused with either honesty or wisdom) and passion, and thus the worst they will be exposed to ridicule.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    edited May 2014
    Out of interest, anyone else still undecided on the Euros? On the basis that domestic policies and the economy are largely inconsequential to the vote, I'm hesitating.

    UKIP: Probably not, I dislike the EU but feel leaving it would probably be a mistake in the long run, so would likely vote to remain in in any referendum (which we should have had long before no).. Then again, they are the only party to have bothered to seek my vote thus far, which is a plus.
    LDs: I guess I'm more In than Out, but I really don't feel like an enthusiastic In which they are targeting. I guess they could get a sympathy vote from me, as a total wipeout of MEPs seems harsh.
    Labour: I've no real idea what position on the EU they will take tomorrow or the next day. Broadly the same as the Tories I guess? In but unhappily so, which isn't too far from my position.
    Tories: As a party wants to be Out, which I don't, but the leadership is In and hoping for renegotiation of powers - that is possibly closest to what I would like, but the contempt from the EU hierarchy makes it clear anything obtained would be a token gesture only, so what's the point?
    Greens: Very funny.

    A tricky one indeed.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2014
    I also find this idea that mass immigration is "social progress" an odd one. How are longer waits for GP appointments, a shortage of school places, less affordable housing and more building over the natural environment "progressive"?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    Out of interest, anyone else still undecided on the Euros? On the basis that domestic policies and the economy are largely inconsequential to the vote, I'm hesisitating.

    UKIP: Probably not, I dislike the EU but feel leaving it would probably be a mistake in the long run, so would likely vote to remain in in any referendum (which we should have had long before no).. Then again, they are the only party to have bothered to seek my vote thus far, which is a plus.
    LDs: I guess I'm more In than Out, but I really don't feel like an enthusiastic In which they are targeting. I guess they could get a sympathy vote from me, as a total wipeout of MEPs seems harsh.
    Labour: I've no real idea what position on the EU they will take tomorrow or the next day. Broadly the same as the Tories I guess? In but unhappily so, which isn't too far from my position.
    Tories: As a party wants to be Out, which I don't, but the leadership is In and hoping for renegotiation of powers - that is possibly closest to what I would like, but the contempt from the EU hierarchy makes it clear anything obtained would be a token gesture only, so what's the point?
    Greens: Very funny.

    A tricky one indeed.

    I'm undecided, but then I always am until about 9:45pm on polling day.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Nice people these state sponsored lefty protestors

    "Prior to Mr Farage taking the stage, Ukip's economics spokesman Steven Woolfe made an impassioned defence of his party's record on black and ethnic minority members.

    He said: "I am a proud Englishman, I am a proud Briton, I am a proud mixed race person and I am a proud member of Ukip."

    A small number of hecklers from an anti-Ukip demonstration outside the hall managed to infiltrate the meeting, but were swiftly ejected by stewards.

    Mr Woolfe appeared on the brink of tears as he responded to one protestor's cry of 'faker'.

    His voice cracking with emotion, he referenced his own childhood growing up in Manchester and said: "A five-year-old child having to go home and tell his mum he was called a n***** all day at school - that's not a fake." "

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/474603/You-can-NEVER-call-us-racist-again-Ukip-s-black-and-ethnic-minority-members-fight-back
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    edited May 2014
    philiph said:

    With reference to Farage and how he is perceived by the mere mortals that are voters, his big advantage over Milliband, Clegg and Cameron is that he appears to speak with authenticity. You know he will be closer to saying what he believes than the other three.

    When a speaker is authentic they will connect with both those who agree with them and those who disagree with them to a much higher level than a speaker who is perceived as inauthentic.

    It is why someone like Dennis Skinner, Boris Johnson or Tony Benn, both of whom espouse(d) some pretty arcane, sometimes vindictive and frequently controversial views (to a large section of voters) are accepted without (much) malice by nearly all. They spoke with authenticity (which should not be confused with either honesty or wisdom) and passion, and thus the worst they will be exposed to ridicule.

    Probably true. All are capable of being calculating, no doubt, but the carefully focus tested bland approaches from the big three is obviously designed to get our votes, whereas while Farage and those others are also after our votes, it feels less like they are crafting a message to do so (even when they are), than that they would say the same thing regardless of who is in front of them or what the polls say.

    We need more like all of them, even if bland caution is what we actually want in government. They keep the leaderships on their toes and force them to work harder, as well as make things more interesting.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,302
    kle4 By the eve of poll polls it will be obvious to UKIP supporters whether or not they will let Miliband in.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    kle4 said:

    philiph said:

    With reference to Farage and how he is perceived by the mere mortals that are voters, his big advantage over Milliband, Clegg and Cameron is that he appears to speak with authenticity. You know he will be closer to saying what he believes than the other three.

    When a speaker is authentic they will connect with both those who agree with them and those who disagree with them to a much higher level than a speaker who is perceived as inauthentic.

    It is why someone like Dennis Skinner, Boris Johnson or Tony Benn, both of whom espouse(d) some pretty arcane, sometimes vindictive and frequently controversial views (to a large section of voters) are accepted without (much) malice by nearly all. They spoke with authenticity (which should not be confused with either honesty or wisdom) and passion, and thus the worst they will be exposed to ridicule.

    Probably true. All are capable of being calculating, no doubt, but the carefully focus tested bland approaches from the big three is obviously designed to get our votes, whereas while Farage and those others are also after our votes, it feels less like they are crafting a message to do so (even when they are), than that they would say the same thing regardless of who is in front of them or what the polls say.

    We need more like all of them, even if bland caution is what we actually want in government. They keep the leaderships on their toes and force them to work harder, as well as make things more interesting.
    Gavin Essler does a good and convincing presentation on the value of Authenticity in communication, which rather strangely seems to tie in well with promoting one of his books, which I don't have!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    Pulpstar said:

    Not a bad effort by the Greens there.

    Black and white PEBs seem to be in vogue at the moment !

    I thought it a nice idea, just it went on too long

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    edited May 2014
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 By the eve of poll polls it will be obvious to UKIP supporters whether or not they will let Miliband in.

    Perhaps, but by that point the danger of a Miliband win is lessened if the economy has picked up, and so while some may return to the fold in fear, others may think the country's well enough to handle it. The Tories may hope that everyone lives in fear of the recovery being derailed by Labour, but I think fewer actually do so than they think. Given anything negative that happens is blamed on either the last lot in office or global events that cannot be avoided, the government gets less credit for when things pick up as well by the same logic, as rises and falls are largely seen as in spite of rather than because of the government of the day, who merely tinker with things.

    I do not fear a Labour government's tinkering. I don't yearn for it either, but I don't fear it. If enough UKIPers also do not fear it, and with the economy picking up fewer might, the polls pointing to that outcome may not be enough to tempt the numbers back that are required.

  • Options
    MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    philiph said:

    With reference to Farage and how he is perceived by the mere mortals that are voters, his big advantage over Milliband, Clegg and Cameron is that he appears to speak with authenticity. You know he will be closer to saying what he believes than the other three.

    When a speaker is authentic they will connect with both those who agree with them and those who disagree with them to a much higher level than a speaker who is perceived as inauthentic.

    It is why someone like Dennis Skinner, Boris Johnson or Tony Benn, both of whom espouse(d) some pretty arcane, sometimes vindictive and frequently controversial views (to a large section of voters) are accepted without (much) malice by nearly all. They spoke with authenticity (which should not be confused with either honesty or wisdom) and passion, and thus the worst they will be exposed to ridicule.

    Although you may be right with respect to Boris Johnson and I wouldn't really know (I am not sure who would) with respect to Dennis Skinner I would argue that you are wrong with respect to Tony Benn. In his heyday Benn was reveiled and feared by a very large section of the population, indeed probably an overwhelming majority. It was only in his old age when he had no further potential to wield power that he was 'accepted without malice' and gained respect for his supposed honesty.

    Likewise I think you are mistaken regarding Farage for similar reasons. A lot of people like and admire him because he speaks his views plainly and the views he articulates are fundamentally their own. However another section of society, mainly on the left, reveil him just as much as Benn was by the right. Furthermore if Farage came a bit closer to wielding power, as Benn did in the 1970s as a cabinet minister, they would be absolutely terrified.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,739
    kle4 said:

    Out of interest, anyone else still undecided on the Euros? On the basis that domestic policies and the economy are largely inconsequential to the vote, I'm hesitating.

    UKIP: Probably not, I dislike the EU but feel leaving it would probably be a mistake in the long run, so would likely vote to remain in in any referendum (which we should have had long before no).. Then again, they are the only party to have bothered to seek my vote thus far, which is a plus.
    LDs: I guess I'm more In than Out, but I really don't feel like an enthusiastic In which they are targeting. I guess they could get a sympathy vote from me, as a total wipeout of MEPs seems harsh.
    Labour: I've no real idea what position on the EU they will take tomorrow or the next day. Broadly the same as the Tories I guess? In but unhappily so, which isn't too far from my position.
    Tories: As a party wants to be Out, which I don't, but the leadership is In and hoping for renegotiation of powers - that is possibly closest to what I would like, but the contempt from the EU hierarchy makes it clear anything obtained would be a token gesture only, so what's the point?
    Greens: Very funny.

    A tricky one indeed.

    If you are in the North West Region can I interest you in the Pirate Party? In the EU but seeking to democratise it rather than accept it as is... @PiratePartyUK
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited May 2014
    I see the Daily Mail is going big again on Halal meat.

    Putting aside Daily Mail's obvious agenda / bias here, and actually I don't really care either way i.e I prefer my meat to have been reared well, I have to say I don't really care that much if the animal had a prayer read to it or not.

    However, I am surprised that,

    a) how little we here from the animal rights brigade on this issue. Is it that they are shouting and the rest of the media don't want to know? I remember when there was a huge push to make slaughter much kinder on animals, which now means non-religious slaughter has to follow much higher standards of welfare.

    b) it seems pretty clear that (the example given New Zealand lamb) that a lot of slaughter houses (and as a result reason so increasing % of meat in supermarkets / restaurants is halal) are using this technique of slaughter is economic, not primarily religious.

    It seems like a big loophole that is being exploited under the cover of religious freedom and that animals don't even have to be stunned. Is that a good enough excuse?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    edited May 2014
    Lennon said:

    kle4 said:

    Out of interest, anyone else still undecided on the Euros? On the basis that domestic policies and the economy are largely inconsequential to the vote, I'm hesitating.

    UKIPt I really don't feel like an enthusiastic In which they are targeting. I guess they could get a sympathy vote from me, as a total wipeout of MEPs seems harsh.
    Labour: I've no real idea what position on the EU they will take tomorrow or the next day. Broadly the same as the Tories I guess? In but unhappily so, which isn't too far from my position.
    Tories: As a party wants to be Out, which I don't, but the leadership is In and hoping for renegotiation of powers - that is possibly closest to what I would like, but the contempt from the EU hierarchy makes it clear anything obtained would be a token gesture only, so what's the point?
    Greens: Very funny.

    A tricky one indeed.

    If you are in the North West Region can I interest you in the Pirate Party? In the EU but seeking to democratise it rather than accept it as is... @PiratePartyUK
    Lennon said:

    kle4 said:

    Out of interest, anyone else still undecided on the Euros? On the basis that domestic policies and the economy are largely inconsequential to the vote, I'm hesitating.

    UKIP: Probably not, I dislike the EU but feel leaving it would probably be a mistake in the long run, so would likely vote to remain in in any referendum (which we should have had long before no).. Then again, they are the only party to have bothered to seek my vote thus far, which is a plus.
    LDs: I guess I'm more In than Out, but I really don't feel like an enthusiastic In which they are targeting. I guess they could get a sympathy vote from me, as a total wipeout of MEPs seems harsh.
    Labour: I've no real idea what position on the EU they will take tomorrow or the next day. Broadly the same as the Tories I guess? In but unhappily so, which isn't too far from my position.
    Tories: As a party wants to be Out, which I don't, but the leadership is In and hoping for renegotiation of powers - that is possibly closest to what I would like, but the contempt from the EU hierarchy makes it clear anything obtained would be a token gesture only, so what's the point?
    Greens: Very funny.

    A tricky one indeed.

    If you are in the North West Region can I interest you in the Pirate Party? In the EU but seeking to democratise it rather than accept it as is... @PiratePartyUK
    The South West I'm afraid, interestingly only because Gibraltar votes in the region. Looks like I'm stuck with the above, English Democrats, BNP and 'An Independence from Europe'. Boring. James Cracknell is standing however.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,302
    kle4 It was fear of Kinnock which saw Major reelected
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    South African election:

    Vineyard Christian Fellowship voting area:

    Whoops...

    "Registered voters: 266
    Votes cast: 291
    Valid votes: 291"

    http://www.news24.com/Elections/Results?mobile=false#map=live&level=vd&provid=WC&munid=WC048&ward=10408010&vd=97270218
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    The suggestion that Nigel Farage is an honest non-politician who says what he thinks, without calculating the effect, is easily the funniest idea in UK politics for at least a decade.

    Guys (you are mainly guys): he's a politician. He does the photo-shoots with a pint in his hand because he wants his image to be of a non-politician with a pint in his hand.

    Currently he's battling to craft the message, as any good politician in his situation would, that UKIP is free of racism. Since the party's primary message is anti-immigration, and its secondary message is anti-Islam, this is a challenge, but one which - as a professional politician - he is handling quite well. As someone who has followed politics for half a century, I salute his professionalism.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    edited May 2014
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 It was fear of Kinnock which saw Major reelected

    Before my time so I cannot gauge how bad Kinnock may have been. Ed M on the other hand is many things, but scary is not one of them I think. That Cameron has nothing more he can actively do to entice members back and is dependent on people being frightened of his opponent, does not bode well for him when his opponent is so calculatingly inoffensive sprinkled with eye catching populist statements at infrequent intervals - the sort that, while I am not qualified to judge their worth all the time and some of which may well therefore be bad and cost him a little, are often very appealing at first glance, which will be all of what most people see.

    I have a lot of time for Cameron, disappointing government though it has been in many respects, but there just seems to be too much for him to do or which is out of his hands, and I don't think his opponents are helping him as much as he needs.

    Night all.

    P.S Richard Nabavi is certainly correct that Farage is most definitely a professional politician, and a good one. He has an image and style which works for him, but as he showed in the second Clegg debate, he can switch up his standard approach very easily as well, if needed.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 By the eve of poll polls it will be obvious to UKIP supporters whether or not they will let Miliband in.

    Perhaps, but by that point the danger of a Miliband win is lessened if the economy has picked up, and so while some may return to the fold in fear, others may think the country's well enough to handle it. The Tories may hope that everyone lives in fear of the recovery being derailed by Labour, but I think fewer actually do so than they think. Given anything negative that happens is blamed on either the last lot in office or global events that cannot be avoided, the government gets less credit for when things pick up as well by the same logic, as rises and falls are largely seen as in spite of rather than because of the government of the day, who merely tinker with things.

    I do not fear a Labour government's tinkering. I don't yearn for it either, but I don't fear it. If enough UKIPers also do not fear it, and with the economy picking up fewer might, the polls pointing to that outcome may not be enough to tempt the numbers back that are required.

    But it's not just a bit of tinkering.

    Anyone getting on in years who owns their own home is going to have to consider whether they want Miliband taking £100k to £150k when they die rather than it going to their kids.

    Forget the mansion tax - LD proposal to abolish inheritance tax and tax beneficiaries on all receipts as income is going to hit middle class families big time.

    Forget gay marriage and arguments over whatever else has got everyone up in arms - £100k+ is serious money that is going to get people to stop and think.

    Then you can add in stuff like reducing the CGT allowance from £11k to £2k - major increase in tax on anyone selling shares outside an ISA.

    etc etc.

    It's all very well having a laugh about UKIP - some people are going to have to start thinking pretty seriously about what they want.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    The suggestion that Nigel Farage is an honest non-politician who says what he thinks, without calculating the effect, is easily the funniest idea in UK politics for at least a decade.

    Guys (you are mainly guys): he's a politician. He does the photo-shoots with a pint in his hand because he wants his image to be of a non-politician with a pint in his hand.

    Currently he's battling to craft the message, as any good politician in his situation would, that UKIP is free of racism. Since the party's primary message is anti-immigration, and its secondary message is anti-Islam, this is a challenge, but one which - as a professional politician - he is handling quite well. As someone who has followed politics for half a century, I salute his professionalism.

    I know he is a politician and I couldn't care less.

    I am sure it is supporters of other parties that are bigging up this idea that he isn't a politician, just to smash it back down. Who on here, or anywhere else, has said he is anything but?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Latest SA figures - ANC 60%, DA 26%:

    http://www.elections.org.za/resultsNPE2014/

    One of the most proportional electoral systems in the world, and in the top 10 for women's representation.

    400 seats (200 national, 200 regional across nine regions)

    Closed lists, unusual hybrid counting system; Droop quota, then Largest Remainders (5 seats), then D'Hondt for the remaining seats.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 By the eve of poll polls it will be obvious to UKIP supporters whether or not they will let Miliband in.

    Perhaps, but by that point the danger of a Miliband win is lessened if the economy has picked up, and so while some may return to the fold in fear, others may think the country's well enough to handle it. The Tories may hope that everyone lives in fear of the recovery being derailed by Labour, but I think fewer actually do so than they think. Given anything negative that happens is blamed on either the last lot in office or global events that cannot be avoided, the government gets less credit for when things pick up as well by the same logic, as rises and falls are largely seen as in spite of rather than because of the government of the day, who merely tinker with things.

    I do not fear a Labour government's tinkering. I don't yearn for it either, but I don't fear it. If enough UKIPers also do not fear it, and with the economy picking up fewer might, the polls pointing to that outcome may not be enough to tempt the numbers back that are required.

    But it's not just a bit of tinkering.

    Anyone getting on in years who owns their own home is going to have to consider whether they want Miliband taking £100k to £150k when they die rather than it going to their kids.

    Forget the mansion tax - LD proposal to abolish inheritance tax and tax beneficiaries on all receipts as income is going to hit middle class families big time.

    Forget gay marriage and arguments over whatever else has got everyone up in arms - £100k+ is serious money that is going to get people to stop and think.

    Then you can add in stuff like reducing the CGT allowance from £11k to £2k - major increase in tax on anyone selling shares outside an ISA.

    etc etc.

    It's all very well having a laugh about UKIP - some people are going to have to start thinking pretty seriously about what they want.
    They will. I suspect enough will pay any price to remove Cameron, either through UKIP loyalty or dislike at the Cameroon view of the Conservative Party which they want to change following a GE defeat. We shall see.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    isam said:

    The suggestion that Nigel Farage is an honest non-politician who says what he thinks, without calculating the effect, is easily the funniest idea in UK politics for at least a decade.

    Guys (you are mainly guys): he's a politician. He does the photo-shoots with a pint in his hand because he wants his image to be of a non-politician with a pint in his hand.

    Currently he's battling to craft the message, as any good politician in his situation would, that UKIP is free of racism. Since the party's primary message is anti-immigration, and its secondary message is anti-Islam, this is a challenge, but one which - as a professional politician - he is handling quite well. As someone who has followed politics for half a century, I salute his professionalism.

    I know he is a politician and I couldn't care less.

    I am sure it is supporters of other parties that are bigging up this idea that he isn't a politician, just to smash it back down. Who on here, or anywhere else, has said he is anything but?
    It is a standard implication of the big three being all the same and 'professional' politicians, but UKIP and him not, which UKIP frequently and hilariously assert.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,346
    kle4 said:

    Before my time so I cannot gauge how bad Kinnock may have been

    Says it all. Only someone who's never lived through 1960s/70s red-tooth-and-claw socialism could be quite so sanguine about 'harmless' Ed and what he's got up his sleeve. We who were there can spot the signs, and it's truly frightening.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @FrancisUrquhart

    'I see the Daily Mail is going big again on Halal meat.'

    Halal slaughter has been banned in Sweden & Denmark,can't think why in a so called animal loving country like the UK it's legal.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    The suggestion that Nigel Farage is an honest non-politician who says what he thinks, without calculating the effect, is easily the funniest idea in UK politics for at least a decade.

    Guys (you are mainly guys): he's a politician. He does the photo-shoots with a pint in his hand because he wants his image to be of a non-politician with a pint in his hand.

    Currently he's battling to craft the message, as any good politician in his situation would, that UKIP is free of racism. Since the party's primary message is anti-immigration, and its secondary message is anti-Islam, this is a challenge, but one which - as a professional politician - he is handling quite well. As someone who has followed politics for half a century, I salute his professionalism.

    I know he is a politician and I couldn't care less.

    I am sure it is supporters of other parties that are bigging up this idea that he isn't a politician, just to smash it back down. Who on here, or anywhere else, has said he is anything but?
    It is a standard implication of the big three being all the same and 'professional' politicians, but UKIP and him not, which UKIP frequently and hilariously assert.
    Isn't it true that he has a different CV to the other three leaders?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    kle4 said:

    They will. I suspect enough will pay any price to remove Cameron, either through UKIP loyalty or dislike at the Cameroon view of the Conservative Party which they want to change following a GE defeat. We shall see.

    I'm sure you're right - some people will.

    But in my experience most people's main interest is their own self-interest. I doubt many people regard their political views as worth more than £100k of their own money.

    My point is that up to now, people haven't thought that it mattered. How much did Blair or Brown cost anyone? Nothing major that was directly noticeable.

    Next time, for the first time in about 30 years, the difference between a Con and Lab led government means serious money in a lot of people's pockets.

    Not a few quid here and there - eg raising the PA saving a few hundred quid - this time there is life changing amounts of money at stake - eg whether your kids get your home or whether Miliband gets it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,302
    kle4 Cameron handily beat Miliband in the latest survation poll as to who voters would vote for in a direct election for PM, but we shall see next year, night!
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    Nice people these state sponsored lefty protestors

    "Prior to Mr Farage taking the stage, Ukip's economics spokesman Steven Woolfe made an impassioned defence of his party's record on black and ethnic minority members.

    He said: "I am a proud Englishman, I am a proud Briton, I am a proud mixed race person and I am a proud member of Ukip."

    A small number of hecklers from an anti-Ukip demonstration outside the hall managed to infiltrate the meeting, but were swiftly ejected by stewards.

    Mr Woolfe appeared on the brink of tears as he responded to one protestor's cry of 'faker'.

    His voice cracking with emotion, he referenced his own childhood growing up in Manchester and said: "A five-year-old child having to go home and tell his mum he was called a n***** all day at school - that's not a fake." "

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/474603/You-can-NEVER-call-us-racist-again-Ukip-s-black-and-ethnic-minority-members-fight-back

    Shame about their nineteenth century views on homosexuality though. Although I expect some of Nigel's best friends are gay
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    kle4 said:

    Before my time so I cannot gauge how bad Kinnock may have been

    Says it all. Only someone who's never lived through 1960s/70s red-tooth-and-claw socialism could be quite so sanguine about 'harmless' Ed and what he's got up his sleeve. We who were there can spot the signs, and it's truly frightening.
    Quite. Anyone supporting this trot and his outdated leftist views deserve the misery that would follow a labour victory. Of course the thickos will blame it all on Thatcher as they sup champagne and serve wine to a carefully selected token minority.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Ishmael_X said:


    There is no obvious reason to think that the average voter in a marginal is any different from the average voter overall. What is most obviously different about marginals is the disproportionate amount of attention they receive from the parties in the run up to the GE. If that is right, the likelihood of their voting differently from the national average depends rather little on what they think now and rather a lot on the quality of the various parties' marginal-specific campaigns in 2015. In which case polling them now is of rather little value.

    Is there a flaw in that argument?

    Marginals do tend to differ in atmosphere IMO - there are a few which are essentially two tribes of roughly equal numbers (town vs country, for instance, or Inner London vs Outer London), but most are diverse places with not a great deal of cultural pressure to think one thing or another. I'd be embarrassed to wear a UKIP rosette in Holloway or an SWP rosette (if there is such a thing) in West Sussex, but either would pass without particular reaction in many marginals. That makes for more floating voters - your neighbours don't go "You WHAT?!" if you change party.

    But probably the more interesting factor is incumbency. In moist marginals the seat changed hands fairly recently, and you'd therefore expect an incumbency bonus. The odd thing about the last Ashcroft poll was its absence - indeed there seemed to be a small incumbency penalty. It'll be interesting to see whether repeats or not.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014

    Ishmael_X said:


    There is no obvious reason to think that the average voter in a marginal is any different from the average voter overall. What is most obviously different about marginals is the disproportionate amount of attention they receive from the parties in the run up to the GE. If that is right, the likelihood of their voting differently from the national average depends rather little on what they think now and rather a lot on the quality of the various parties' marginal-specific campaigns in 2015. In which case polling them now is of rather little value.

    Is there a flaw in that argument?

    Marginals do tend to differ in atmosphere IMO - there are a few which are essentially two tribes of roughly equal numbers (town vs country, for instance, or Inner London vs Outer London), but most are diverse places with not a great deal of cultural pressure to think one thing or another. I'd be embarrassed to wear a UKIP rosette in Holloway or an SWP rosette (if there is such a thing) in West Sussex, but either would pass without particular reaction in many marginals. That makes for more floating voters - your neighbours don't go "You WHAT?!" if you change party.

    But probably the more interesting factor is incumbency. In moist marginals the seat changed hands fairly recently, and you'd therefore expect an incumbency bonus. The odd thing about the last Ashcroft poll was its absence - indeed there seemed to be a small incumbency penalty. It'll be interesting to see whether repeats or not.
    Palmer GAIN Broxtowe.
    It's the law

    P.s. 'Moist marginals....'
    Sexual
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I'm going to bed and will leave you with some traditional formal logic, which Roger Helmer (who looks like one of the Mr Men) might like to consider

    All opposition to homosexuality is based on religious belief
    All religious belief is wrong, childish and pathetic
    Therefore all opposition to homosexuality is wrong, childish and pathetic.

    Bum on and be proud.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Looks like DA sweeping to a sensational victory in the Western Cape...
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    I'm going to bed and will leave you with some traditional formal logic, which Roger Helmer (who looks like one of the Mr Men) might like to consider

    All opposition to homosexuality is based on religious belief
    All religious belief is wrong, childish and pathetic
    Therefore all opposition to homosexuality is wrong, childish and pathetic.

    Bum on and be proud.

    A lot of religious belief is based on a lack of antibiotics.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Looks like DA sweeping to a sensational victory in the Western Cape...

    COPE looking like the big losers tonight...

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    MaxUMaxU Posts: 87

    The suggestion that Nigel Farage is an honest non-politician who says what he thinks, without calculating the effect, is easily the funniest idea in UK politics for at least a decade.

    Guys (you are mainly guys): he's a politician. He does the photo-shoots with a pint in his hand because he wants his image to be of a non-politician with a pint in his hand.

    Actually from what I have heard he is actually very partial indeed to a pint, whether or not the press/photographers are involved. His partiality for pubs was such that he disrupted a visit to a major public school, to which the press were not invited, because he dashed to the pub for a couple of quick ones.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Looks like DA sweeping to a sensational victory in the Western Cape...

    COPE looking like the big losers tonight...

    Maybe 12 or 13 parties in Parliament, similar to last time...

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