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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft teases us about his latest poll of the marginals. Can anyone decipher this?
Just to note that Telegraph blogger, Dan Hodges, is an ex-LAB staffer who has never knowingly written anything that is positive about the younger Miliband.
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@RodCrosby - YouGov!
5/1 Helmer you say?
"Ukip's Newark byelection candidate Roger Helmer was greeted like a celebrity as he launched his campaign to be the party's first MP – in a sign his controversial comments about rape and homosexuality appear to have had little effect on the electorate.
The 70-year-old was cheered by market traders as he visited the Nottinghamshire seat, which was vacated by former Tory Patrick Mercer after a lobbying scandal."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/07/roger-helmer-cheered-launching-newark-byelection-campaign
It begins with thanking Lord A, then reminding everyone that the marginals poll in September 2009 showed the Tories on course to win a majority of 70.
The Tories need to seriously up their ground game if they want to hold the line next year.
Abu Hamza 'secretly worked for MI5' to 'keep streets of London safe'
Abu Hamza, the radical Islamic preacher notorious for his hate-filled sermons, was in reality working secretly with British intelligence "to keep the streets of London safe" by "cooling hotheads", his lawyer claimed in a US court.
Holding up what he said were reports from Scotland Yard, Joshua Dratel described the cleric as an "intermediary" who cooperated with MI5 and the police to try to end foreign hostage-takings and defuse tensions with the Muslim community in Britain.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10814816/Abu-Hamza-secretly-worked-for-MI5-to-keep-streets-of-London-safe.html
Was greatly surprised to learn today that we have locals as well as European elections. I could've sworn it was only the European election.
Accurate they may be. Timely they are not.
The 70-year-old was cheered by market traders as he visited the Nottinghamshire seat, which was vacated by former Tory Patrick Mercer after a lobbying scandal."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/07/roger-helmer-cheered-launching-newark-byelection-campaign
It's a spoof right?
Helmer cheered to the rafters in Newark earlier.. according to The Guardian no less
Maybe 5/1s the bet
The MikeK Forecast for the May 22nd EU results:
UKIP ...... 39.3%
Labour... 25.2%
Tory ...... 18.5%
L/Dem... 5.6%
Greens... 4.0%
An IFE.... 2.7%
Others... 4.7%
"Jeremy Clarkson and Ukip are not mavericks, but the bullying face of the establishment
The discussion about whether Clarkson is personally racist is a sideshow. He is part of a group seeking not only to put a brake on social progress, but to drag us backwards"
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/07/jeremy-clarkson-ukip-maverick-establishment-racist
I looked up Liberty GB online, hoping they might be some sort of libertarian outfit but instead the whole website seems to be a not-so-thinly-veiled dog whistle for cryptofascists.
So I may go back to plan A and vote for Dan Hannan, Britain's third most famous Peruvian after Michael Bentine and Paddington the Bear. Although I'm a bit surprised to see Marta Andreasen still on the Tory ticket, but at no 4 she is unlikely to get in.
This answers a query raised here at PB several months ago: would the result be announced by Holyrood constituency, by Westminster constituency, or by council area? It'll be by the 32 council areas.
Is there a flaw in that argument?
Will the polling in April 2014 be the same as the actual votes in May 2015?
A tactical vote has a higher probability of being decisive because the constituency is marginal. There is therefore a greater incentive to cast a tactical vote in marginal constituencies.
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft·17 secs
@MSmithsonPB Truth is, Mike, it's still in the field...
Argyll & Bute is always the slowest to count, because of the number of islands. It usually counts Westminster votes the following day, but I think they will try to get this referendum result published in its entirety ASAP.
Although I suspect some bookies will pull their entire constituency markets on the evening of the 23rd of May until they've seen and analysed this polling.
Bloody odd thought occurs to me: by the Singapore Grand Prix the UK might be starting to split apart.
Am I the only one worried about such levels of projected immigration? Even with the recent additional controls?
The only civilised response to such studies seems to be to celebrate it. But I really worry about the cohesiveness and sociocultural integrity of such a Britain. I see very few people tactfully and measuredly articulating these concerns in either mainstream politics or the media.
Perhaps this habit goes back to the primitive belief that the word and the thing, the name and the object, are identical.
At all events, the discussion of future grave but, with effort now, avoidable evils is the most unpopular and at the same time the most necessary occupation for the politician. Those who knowingly shirk it deserve, and not infrequently receive, the curses of those who come after. "
Also, Morris (as in the dance) not Maurice (as in the thrifty Byzantine emperor deposed by Nicephorus Phocas who was himself ousted by Heraclius, amongst the most tragic of emperors).
During the campaign proper, when the Tories reestablish a small national poll lead, I'd expect this to be accentuated in the marginals.
On topic, I cannot think of any reason why the marginals polling more heavily to Miliband should have changed in recent months. If they were harder on the Tories when things were looking less positive, they are probably going to be less inclined to give any credit to the Tories when things start looking up, even if a recovery is so large people start feeling it properly.
A good and informed answer is beyond my competence.
I would expect OGH, Sir Roderick, TSE, Mark Senior etc. might be able to confirm the theory and, if so, quantify the effect.
Not only are there council elections, but Shadsy has even priced up some markets! Eg:
Trafford Council
NOC 2/5
CON Control 3/1
LAB Control 6/1
Merton Council
LAB Control 1/4
NOC 3/1
CON Control 16/1
LD Control 200/1
Other councils priced up:
Hammersmith & Fulham
Croydon
Barnet
Redbridge
Stockport
Though I don't hold much hope, there's no decent team that plays in Claret and Blue.
Right?
E.g. "In the 2011 Census, only 14% of Whites identified themselves as being purely British... all other ethnic minority communities were over four times more likely to associate themselves with being British. 71% of Bangladeshis and 63% of Pakistanis considered themselves purely British."
I hardly think we have to worry about them.
Pretty odd logic. You have a point about not worrying too much about what might happen in the future. I'd feel more comfortable about that if we had an open debate about it now.
I look at the nationality sources of immigrants on that list and note that integration has not always been a roaring success with the existing communities that we have now. I don't particularly want a Britain consisting of just multiple quasi-autonomous mono-cultural pockets, which is what I fear we would get at those levels.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead rises to three points: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
But this is an international phenomenon. All of Europe, America and the Old commonwealth are becoming more ethnically diverse, indeed in the non EU countries the rate is much the same or higher than us.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead rises to three points: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
Suspect Labour are on dangerous ground with this "tax breaks for millionaires" thing. Do they really want to position themselves as the high tax party? If they are an authentically high-tax party, why is 45% now supposedly an unacceptable dodge for the well-heeled when 40% was absolutely fine for 13 years? As with tuition fees, I wonder whether this is in the category of things it's great fun to complain are terrible indications of an out-of-touch government, but not such great fun to be explicitly committed to reversing.
Also enjoyed how the Coalition "let" energy companies raise prices, as if the government is somehow in charge of all energy bills. By extension, had it been something other than energy that had gone up, presumably that would have been complained about instead, so implicitly the Labour party feel comfortable projecting that governments bear ultimately responsible for the setting of all prices. They seem far more likely to rescind this view once in office, than to perform the radical overhaul of our economic system that would be required to bring reality into correspondence with such lofty principles.
The one genuine mistake, taking the PPB on its own terms, that I felt it contained was in begging the question "what did people get in return for lower taxes on the rich?" The coalition sold that change as part of a package that included reduced income tax for low to moderate earners. A lot of people really feel that change - particularly if they recall Labour's own treatment of the equivalent bracket. When that rhetorical question was raised, I'm afraid I instantly thought "well, low earners got a tax break too" before the broadcast moved on to the VAT rise. Purely as a piece of advertising it would have been better to have cut that question out, and segued incoherently straight to the VAT bit. Risky business asking what the Romans ever did.
By all means have the debate now, that some people are very concerned shows there is at least an issue of some kind, but it will continue to be one sided I suspect because there are those who are worried and so, quite rightly, think we need to talk about it now, beforehand, and those who are not worried and so thus see no need to engage in that debate at this time.
If that happens the UK demos could start to fracture as it will become increasing difficult not to be pick one over the other in public policy and legislation, and to have those decisions accepted.
How many psychics does it take to change a light bulb ?
Seems a bit long winded!
Tonight is truly UKIP's Clause 4 moment
English language is the most spoken at home:
Indian: ~55%
Pakistani: ~45%
Bangladeshi: ~40%
Black African: ~65%
Black Caribbean: ~95%
http://www.elections.org.za/resultsNPE2014/
#Ukip immigration policy: Replace Poles with Pakistanis. #BNP immigration policy: Britain's full, shut the door! pic.twitter.com/mnwc2w0TeU
"I am a general practitioner in Southampton. As someone of South Asian descent I feel
privileged to have a large population of South Asian ethnic groups as part of my practice
patient list. Writing generally about this group I feel there are two clear cohorts of
differing socioeconomic levels."
Try replacing "South Asian" with "white" and see how it sounds...