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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Monday’s front pages are now coming through

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    @asjohnstone There are 150 overs left. Another 5 or 6 will be all that is needed to get to 500 if McCullum isn't out. If McCullum holes out, he should call BJ off with him.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Yes, well the GOP in its present guise IS that far out there and if Hillary runs they may well feel they will probably lose anyway so pick someone they believe in as they did with Goldwater in '64. Santorum also has the organisation from 2012 to use again
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    I'm getting a nostalgic feeling. This is as bad as England used to be in the mid 90s.
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    I do hate it when captains just bat slowly and aimlessly. They are not being aimless. They are rubbing England's noses in it.
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    Me_Me_ Posts: 66
    I liked this vanilla thing...


    Totally O/T and I`m sure someone mentioned this already, but has anyone here seen House of Cards, the Netflix serie?
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Norm said:

    Is the forecast good for day 5? Sides do seem to declare too late in general although most do still go on and win. I'd declare 430 ahead and say to England go on break the record if you're good enough.

    The forecast is perfect for tomorrow; I'm heading off to the ground in 10 mins to catch the final session. i'd expect to see England batting when I get there
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    The problem with that is that heard about the evangelicals in the 2008 cycle and the Tea Party in the 2012 cycle and both times probably the most moderate guy on the GOP slate went and won the nomination.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    A bit more news from Reuters on Cyrpus. All details as in Y0Kel's earlier post plus:

    The plan is likely to mean very heavy losses for uninsured deposits in Laiki, which has suffered since writing down the value of its holdings of Greek government bonds last year.

    Around 35 billion euros is held in Cypriot accounts with more than 100,000 euros in them, but it is not clear how much of that total is held in Laiki bank.

    If sufficient funds can be found in Laiki to pay off debt and restructure the Cypriot banking sector, uninsured depositors in Bank of Cyprus may not incur any losses, although that remains to be seen.

    One of the officials said shareholders and bondholders in Bank of Cyprus would be part of the "bail-in", with those investors receiving equity in the bank in exchange.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    The Assad assassination..which Assad?

    Riad Al Assad rather than Bashar perhaps. Riad is the nominal military head of the Free Syrian Army and has reportedly survived an assassination attempt today. Just....Stories are he's pretty seriously injured but alive.

    As for Bashar that rumour seems to have no real legs.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "That's because Darling is Scottish, Salmond wants to debate against an upper class Englishman."

    The word you're searching for is 'Tory'. They're not a popular breed up here.

    A Salmond v Darling debate would sell voters a false prospectus. The referendum is a choice between Prime Minister Cameron and Prime Minister Salmond.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Me - Yes, watched another episode tonight, Spacey is excellent, well worth a watch if you can!

    Yokel- Yes, but 2008 (at least pre-crash) and 2012 were winnable elections for the GOP and both McCain (who was runner-up to Bush in 2000) and Romney (who was runner-up to McCain in 2008) were next in line as Santorum (who was runner-up to Romney in 2012) would be in 2016!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Anyway, need to get to bed, night all!
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Rob D -

    "After a dismal few months the Nats mood appeared to have lifted because of one poll which may yet prove an outlier"

    No, not because of one poll. Ipsos-Mori, Angus Reid and TNS-BMRB have also shown swings to Yes. Panelbase is probably the most favourable pollster for the Yes campaign, but the direction of travel is consistent across all pollsters that have reported so far this year.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    RobC said:



    Equally Salmond seemed remarkably disinclined to have the debate with Alastair Darling. Maybe it's because Darling's whole persona is very much in tune with the current public mood. In 2006 he was deemed boring now he seems sober, respectable and most of all right.After a dismal few months the Nats mood appeared to have lifted because of one poll which may yet prove an outlier.As for Labour if they replaced Balls with Darling after the referendum the route to victory in 2015 would be that much clearer.

    You appear to be under the illusion that Salmond hasn't already debated with Darling. He did a few years ago and even the press were pretty much of the view that Darling came a pretty poor second. He's going to debate Darling again anyway at some point so we'll see if the man little Ed didn't even rate enough to give a frontbench job is as good as the Blairites think.

    Even more amusing is the notion that house flipper Darling is in tune with austerity.

    He's certainly in tune with Osbrowne's second home subsidy for the rich since Darling chose four second homes in as many years to maximise his expenses, but I somehow doubt that's going to go down well with the scottish public. He'll enjoy explaining why his partner in the No campaign Clegg demanded he quit as Chancellor due to his expenses claims. Almost as much as he's going to enjoy explaining why he has been roundly criticised by parliament for his many mistakes as he presided over the banking crash and economic shambles that caused all the austerity you seem to think he's in tune with.


    Darling seems boring because he is but if Cammie wants to hide behind flipper Darling because he's scared then you can be certain both labour and the tories will have quite a bit of trouble from here on in having Darling as Cammie's human shield.



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    Me_Me_ Posts: 66
    HYUFD – Agree, Spacey is just excellent.

    The reason I asked is because I watched the whole thing yesterday and was amazed about how good it is.

    Good night...
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    2/1 - Impossible to take wickets on this pitch dontchaknow
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276


    The word you're searching for is 'Tory'. They're not a popular breed up here.

    A Salmond v Darling debate would sell voters a false prospectus. The referendum is a choice between Prime Minister Cameron and Prime Minister Salmond.

    It really wasn't the word I was searching for, nor what i meant. I wrote "English" and meant it.

    The interchangeability between "english" and "tory" as a smear has been a great success for the SNP and a profound failure for the health of the politics of Scotland.

    Regardless of your politics it's unhealthy to have the 250,000 Scots that vote for a right wing party seen as somehow un-scottish.

    As a Scot I don't agree with the SNP on many policies except for one; independence.

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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited March 2013

    2/1 - Impossible to take wickets on this pitch dontchaknow

    England are doomed let's face it. In Test Cricket I would guestimate 90% of the time you should bat first if you win the toss and these weren't the 10% conditions or pitch.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530



    It really wasn't the word I was searching for, nor what i meant. I wrote "English" and meant it.

    The interchangeability between "english" and "tory" as a smear has been a great success for the SNP and a profound failure for the health of the politics of Scotland.


    *tears of laughter etc.*

    Unspoofable.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    Rob D -

    "After a dismal few months the Nats mood appeared to have lifted because of one poll which may yet prove an outlier"

    No, not because of one poll. Ipsos-Mori, Angus Reid and TNS-BMRB have also shown swings to Yes. Panelbase is probably the most favourable pollster for the Yes campaign, but the direction of travel is consistent across all pollsters that have reported so far this year.

    I don't think I said that?
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited March 2013
    Tell me Mick why are Scots living in England not getting a vote while my very English nephew who attends the University of St Andrews presumably will be?
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    RobD said:

    I don't think I said that?

    It was RobC. God help us if there's a RobA and RobB. ;)

    The quote system is less than intuitive so there will be some getting used to it for users, hence I presume the innocent mistake by James.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    I don't think I said that?

    It was RobC. God help us if there's a RobA and RobB. ;)

    The quote system is less than intuitive so there will be some getting used to it for users, hence I presume the innocent mistake by James.

    Yeah I went further down and saw that, that is fair enough! Hello to RobC :-)

    The quoting system is quite simple though, you just have to click on 'quote' :-p
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    redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342

    @Tim_B To get those rugby comps I would need three subscriptions. I am not getting to see NRL. :(

    Put 10 quid in a bet365.com account and you can watch all the nrl online you want. every game, as they have uk rights.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    And to add my two cents on the Scotland poll debate, there has been a trend towards Yes in recent months, from ~28% to ~35%. James Kelly has reason to be enthused.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Norm said:

    Tell me Mick why aren't Scots living in England getting a vote

    Something called the electoral elegibility rules set up for the referendum which were agreed to by Cammie,. Clegg and Salmond. They are much the same as the set of rules that Westminster adheres to for it's elections with regards to residence and eigibility.

    Though if you beef is really with the West Lothian Question as regards to how scottish and other MPs can vote on issues that are now the competences of the scottish parliament, welsh assembly etc. then I have quite a bit of sympathy with that view. We shall see how Cammie and Clegg choose to resolve that when the McKay commission reports. Or indeed don't resolve it, as will be their choice.

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    RobD said:

    The quoting system is quite simple though, you just have to click on 'quote' :-p

    It is for whole post quotes though you have to sort through the various modifiers and delete as appropriate if you want to quote only a specific quote as opposed to a quote within a quote etc.

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    redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    edited March 2013
    RobC said:

    kle4 said:

    As a parting shot, I see Salmond wants a TV debate with Cameron. I can understand why - not only would Salmond in all probability wipe the floor with Cameron, it wouldn't matter if Cameron defied expectations and ripped Salmond a new one, as to hear our Nat friends (and many others) tell it, anything Cameron says will automatically be discounted where it counts, north of the border, because he is a Tory. Refuse to do it, and that's even better for Salmond. It's win win win.


    Equally Salmond seemed remarkably disinclined to have the debate with Alastair Darling. Maybe it's because Darling's whole persona is very much in tune with the current public mood. In 2006 he was deemed boring now he seems sober, respectable and most of all right.After a dismal few months the Nats mood appeared to have lifted because of one poll which may yet prove an outlier.As for Labour if they replaced Balls with Darling after the referendum the route to victory in 2015 would be that much clearer.
    Rob C, Salmond is not the leader of the Yes campaign, and neither is Cameron. They lead their governments. Darling should debate the all party leader of the Yes campaign. The fact the media rarely mentions him tells you that the media cannot get past the SNP either. The NO campaign is desperate to make it an SNP v the rest campaign but the Greens, SSP and many people from within labour, LibDems and Tories support independence. Some within the SNP do not want independence either remember, or at least the version suggested within the EU.

    If Darling wants a debate against the yes campaign manager, an ex beeb man, he would be welcome.
    Both Darling and Cameron are scared that the people outside the SNP are publicised as even existing.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Mick_Pork said:

    RobD said:

    The quoting system is quite simple though, you just have to click on 'quote' :-p

    It is for whole post quotes though you have to sort through the various modifiers and delete as appropriate if you want to quote only a specific quote as opposed to a quote within a quote etc.

    Indeed true. I'm very much glad it is here though!
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    These two battling well. But so much relies on them.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    image

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Imagine that. It must have been something he said.

    Michael Gove is the Sun's hero of the week.
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    These two battling well. But so much relies on them.

    and that's the game gone now I think

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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149


    A lot of Cyprus's problems stem from the German-imposed "solution" to the Greek problem, so the Cypriots might have a point. Cyprus's banks own a lot of Greek bonds which were suddenly worth a lot less. Quite what the Cypriot people were supposed to do about this is unclear.

    TBF most of the alternatives to what the EU/IMF did would have screwed the Cypriot bondholders even worse. The most popular suggestion here seemed to be default and devaluation, which would have completely clobbered Cyprus.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,956
    True, false or fearmongering?

    A thriving local monthly free newssheet for my mum and dad's local area will apparently not be published if the Leveson deal goes through as it is.

    Note: this is just a rumour; I have heard nothing officially. Will such local newssheets - often produced by several different people and edited, complete with paid advertising - come under the proposals, or are they exempt?
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    That would then include the local parish mag - imagine the delight of jobsworths censoring those.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331

    True, false or fearmongering?

    A thriving local monthly free newssheet for my mum and dad's local area will apparently not be published if the Leveson deal goes through as it is.

    Can't see any reason why that should be the case, unless it thrives on scandal-mongering and phone-hacking, which would be unusual in local free papers...

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,956
    edited March 2013
    Nick Palmer said: "Can't see any reason why that should be the case, unless it thrives on scandal-mongering and phone-hacking, which would be unusual in local free papers..."



    Whether they scandal-monger or phone-hack is irrelevant, Nick, as you well know. The legislation covers far more than that. *If* the legislation does cover them, then they will need to sign up. If they do not, they will face exemplary damages and the need to pay costs if they win or not (AIUI).

    Even you can see that both those routes will lead to increased costs and risks for a small volunteer-led newsletter.

    So I will ask the question again: are such newsletters / parish magazines covered by the proposed legislation as it currently stands? If they are, then the legislation needs throwing in the dustbin.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925
    Even you can see that both those routes will lead to increased costs and risks for a small volunteer-led newsletter.


    What are the extra costs and risks involved?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    HILLS OFFERS GREAT VALUE SHOCKER ;) (NEW THREAD) !
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    edited March 2013
    @EdmundInTokyo

    You're absolutely right. There was no solution for Cyprus that was pain free - except for either the Germans or the Russians handing over €16bn. And that simply wasn't on the table. Putin wants to discourage Russian money leaving the country; and Germany simply wasn't going to hand out a bank bailout equivalent to 80% of GDP, especially when the problems of the Cypriot banks were mostly self-inflicted (and the beneficiaries mostly foreign).

    A week ago, I said there were three problems with the tax: (1) it fell on deposits below €100,000; (2) it did not distinguish between good and bad banks; and (3) it broke the order of debt precedence (by taking from depositors, but not - say - junior bondholders).

    The current proposal solves all those issues, with the exception of the proposed 2% 'solidarity tax' on deposits above €100,000 in solvent banks. It is - essentially - the market solution. And is a salutatory reminder of the dangers in putting your money (really, lending to the bank) in an institution that is offering approximately 5x the going rate of interest for a Eurozone bank.

    What I think is also interesting is the revelations that have emerged from the FT in the last week. The EU/IMF/Germans did not want a tax on the deposits below €100,000 - that was the Cypriot President (who was desperate to maintain the the off-shore finance industry). In fact the EU/IMF/Germans were pushing for what has now emerged: i.e. an orderly bankrupcy of a over-stretched financial institutions, with depositors supported according to current EU law.

    One last point re the Nigel Farage story: it's worth remembering that the EU has no ability to take money out of the British subsidiary of Santander (the old Abbey National). And Santander on most metrics is a significantly better capitalised bank than - say - RBS, Lloyds TSB, or Barclays. Its shares trade at a premium to tangible book (i.e. the value of assets less liabilities), while British banks trade at a significant discount. Unlike British banks, Santander was profitable in each of the years of the financial crisis (which is a pretty impressive achievement). Of course, things could go horribly wrong, but in every case depositors in the UK would be protected by the UK's existing deposit guarantee scheme.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,956
    Again, AIUI signing up to the regulatory body will not be cheap. It will also require people who know exactly what they are signing up for, which will require a great deal of legal knowledge.

    AIUI if they do not sign up, then they risk silly lawsuits being thrown at them, and they will risk exemplary damages (and the other sides costs even if they win?)

    As an example: say that there is a new housing development being built, which many people in an area are against. The newsletter runs a small and moderate campaign against it. To shut them up, the developers sue the newsletter on spurious grounds, and the group has to pay the developer's legal costs.

    This discussion is rather irrelevant if such small local newsletters are not covered by the charter legislation as currently proposed. However, such newsletters do come under the definition of 'newspapers, magazines or websites containing news-related material.'

    Nick: are you sure that the newsletters you used to send out to constituents *won't* come under this legislation?

    if If I'm wrong, I daresay someone will correct.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925

    Again, AIUI signing up to the regulatory body will not be cheap. It will also require people who know exactly what they are signing up for, which will require a great deal of legal knowledge.

    AIUI if they do not sign up, then they risk silly lawsuits being thrown at them, and they will risk exemplary damages (and the other sides costs even if they win?)

    As an example: say that there is a new housing development being built, which many people in an area are against. The newsletter runs a small and moderate campaign against it. To shut them up, the developers sue the newsletter on spurious grounds, and the group has to pay the developer's legal costs.

    This discussion is rather irrelevant if such small local newsletters are not covered by the charter legislation as currently proposed. However, such newsletters do come under the definition of 'newspapers, magazines or websites containing news-related material.'

    Nick: are you sure that the newsletters you used to send out to constituents *won't* come under this legislation?

    if If I'm wrong, I daresay someone will correct.

    The developer could sue the newsletter now, under current laws. If it sued on spurious grounds it would lose.

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    Essential reading for Sunil et al:
    http://www.cps.org.uk/publications/reports/rail-s-second-chance/ (.pdf download available)

    They have shown that competition leads to more journeys, higher revenues for the train companies, lower fares, more and happier passengers. New data for this report shows that at ECML stations:

    passenger journeys increased by 42% at those stations which enjoy rail competition, compared with 27% for those without competition;
    revenue increased by 57% where competition occurs compared to 48% for those stations without competition;
    average fares increased by only 11% on those stations with competition, compared to 17% at those stations without competition.

    In the case of the ECML franchise holder – East Coast – has been able to increase its premium payments to Government year on year with no need for subsidy, whilst facing on-track competition.

    In addition, in the official rankings of passenger satisfaction of the 31 main train companies, the companies that came first and second were those which are running “open access” competitive services against the franchise – Grand Central and First Hull Trains.


    Following the West Coast Main Line fiasco, the model for awarding rail franchises is now in disarray. Tony Lodge concludes that Ministers at the DfT should seize the opportunity to restructure new franchises to enable far greater competition to flourish across the UK rail network.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,956
    SO>

    Yes, they could be sued at the moment. But the proposed legislation adds a whole layer of complexity and risk for the editors. For instance the danger of exemplary damages (and, if true, having to pay legal costs if you win or lose). These will either kill local newsletters or prevent people from wanting to be involved with them.

    Such local newsletters should not be covered under this legislation.
This discussion has been closed.