The trick in Ealing Central is to squeeze the Liberal vote until the pips squeak - they have a good shout. Many viscerally anti-Tory Red Liberals in that seat - lots of leftie professionals who fell for the Liberal Winning Here con last time only to see Labour run the Tories closer and the Tory come through the middle. It's a genuine three-way marginal - a rare fish indeed.
How many in Ealing are now going to be worried about having to pay the Mansion Tax sometime though? It may be a modest number - but the majority in 2015 may well be a modest number....
How many of those who are at risk of paying the Mansion Tax are within the Tory Core Vote anyway? I would think rather a lot- therefore they won't be the voters in play.
Incidentally does anyone know what the current proposed threshold of the Mansion Tax is likely to be? I have read £2m as a suggestion but your comments about Ealing Central seems to suggest £1m (there really aren't very many houses in that are or conceivably will be worth £2m plus, even in the current market conditions). Of course if the tax is to actually raise any significant revenue, rather than just be a device to punish the very rich, the threshold needs to be £1m or perhaps even less.
Doesn't a million get you a nice shoe box in some parts of London these days ?
Btw - If another_richard pops on, can you alert him to this post, he was interested on my Mum's weekend visit back to Page Hall Road.
So we went back, my mother was back to saying how disgusting the Roma are, begging and being an annoyance and doing bad things in the street.
When we got back into the car, I said, she was being far too harsh on the Roma, and they were a persecuted race, that Hitler had tried to wipe them out.
Her response "I can understand why"*
*Not her exact words, this conversation was in Urdu.
It'll be interesting to see how UKIP do in Sheffield this year.
All quiet on the IndyRef front today so guess my YESNP friends are still hungover from the excitement of the Sunday Herald coming out in favour because both its readers say YES.
It's quiet because it's getting to the point where there'll only be a couple of 'YESNP'ers on here. Mick Pork has had his posting rights suspended because some little sneak has clyped to the moderators about MP saying 'insulting' things about PB & OGH on another site.
The three internet behaviours I really despise are aftertiming, trying to get fellow posters banned and grassing up fellow posters on the sly. Perhaps the PB super snitch would like to fess up to their activities so that they're only one-down on the ****er quotient.
@ JohnO I suggest you read the ukpollingreport comments on the PoliticsHome marginal poll in October 2009 . It forecast a Conservative overall majority of around 70 not very accurate but rather less than the national polls of the time and a better Lib Dem performance in 2010 than the national polls were forecasting at the time . Neither the national nor the marginals polls were particularly accurate at forecasting the GE result 6 months out but the marginals poll was rather less inaccurate .
You said you did not disagree with Robert. Here is what he wrote (again)
"....Overall, if the results of the poll across marginals suggests a different swing from that suggested by the whole weight of national polls, it's probable that it's the marginals poll that is wrong....."
That is the crucial point, isn't it? Aren't we at one on that?
I'm sure TSE has seen the funny side in it being the Eagles biting his footie team on the bum?
In the interest of TSE's sanity please do not mention Liverpool's humiliating performance against Palace last night when they threw away a 0-3 lead and saw their premiership hopes reduced to tatters
I don't follow football. To stop me mistakenly mentioning or quoting something that might cause TSE pain, hurt and humiliation, can you make it clearer the sort of things that I should not mention?
I'd avoid the phrase "many a slip between cup and lip" for starters. That's been on the banned list for a few days. Now I'd steer clear of "soaring like an eagle" as well.
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory would be out too then?
I'm sure if we pool our resources we can stop TSE feeling liverish....
On the Sunday Herald endorsement, Prof Tomkins tweeted the respective circulations of the Sunday Herald and Sunday Post, adding the tag "#gamechanger" - I suspect he was being sarcastic....
On the other hand, 'quality' journals tend to have smaller circulations anyway. And - whether you regard it as cynicism/realism in terms of circulation, or a genuine decision to come out of the closet/have a Pauline conversion - this is, by one very real criterion, the acceptance of independence into the mainstream media debate. Normalization, in short. [edit: a term owed to Lallans Peat Worrier on his blog, I belatedly add.]
It's not so long ago that indy was a fringe enthusiasm (or at least portrayed as so by the chorusing media and political classes). Indeed, I was reflecting during the recent discussion of Steve Bell's cartoons that they show very clearly how modern orthodoxy was regarded as barking mad back in the late 70s and early 80s - vide Sir Keith Joseph in a straitjacket spouting his privatization delusions.
I work in Manchester in an office full of either United or City fans.
The City fans are convinced they'll either lose up Villa or West Ham "because we're City, that's what we do"
The fans that should be saying that are Chelsea's
Done the double over Liverpool & Man City, took 4 points off Arsenal, Tottenham & Man Utd, but slipped up against lesser teams like Sunderland, Norwich, Villa & West Ham
Mr. Observer, sounds like I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP's strategy will be firmly to try and grab would-be UKIP voters. Maybe Labour will enjoy a nice victory after all.
This is from the Newark Advertiser website from Sunday. Apparently the meeting to choose the UKIP candidates who will be interviewed for selection was being held last night.
"The Newark branch of UKIP meets tomorrow night to decide who they want to fight the Newark by-election. Nominations for candidates close at midnight today. The national executive committee will then select who will go forward to appear before the Newark members.
There have been reports that East Midlands Euro MP Mr Roger Helmer, who defected from the Tories in 2012, was being lined up to fight the by-election.
Newark branch chairman Mr Peter Weston-Davies said today he was yet to be told who was on the list but said he would not be surprised to see Mr Helmer's name.
Mr Helmer was among four prospective MEPs who took part in a hustings at the Magnus School, Newark, last night. Issues raised included immigration, jobs, and if there should be a referendum over whether Britain should stay in or opt out of the European Union."
I may be making a rash assumption, but I'm guessing the general mood on the last question was in favour of such a referendum?
Actually looking around the Newark Advertiser site a bit more it is clear this is a case of poor reporting. The hustings was not just UKIP but representatives of a number of parties standing in the Euro elections. It was not a meeting arranged by UKIP.
Helmer was at a hustings even though he isn't yet the official candidate ? Seems odd. Or does that actually happen...
Would expect you to receive Tory literature sometime this week to coincide with the distribution of postal votes. That's when we have been advised to deliver, so I'm out soon hitting the streets. What joy.
I can't believe the Electoral Commission has allowed this impostor UKIP party through with such a similar name and tag line. Coming on the back of UKIP not being able to be "The Independence Party", it seems like they're deliberately being complicit in hurting UKIP. I assume they're stuffed full of supporters of the big parties.
A national poll has fewer than 5 samples per constituency . Clearly a large sample of marginals with 500 or so in each marginal will have a lower MofE than the national poll .
Don't wish to be rude but I would rather defer to the views of a noted psephologist and (former) pollster on these matters than your good self.
I think you are making up a general rule which my friend Robert did not make . If you go back to May 2009 , the national polls showing Conservatives with a 20% lead over Labour were a no more accurate forecast of the 2010 GE .
@MarkSenior - This is a note from Robert to me on the subject which I have posted here before:
"The problem with marginals polls (of which I've taken a few) is not with the sample size. That's often a red herring, as it doesn't matter how many people you talk to if they're not typical of all voters.
Therefore it's the 'sampling frame'. Assuming the poll is not random, and it won't be, the designers have to establish targets to set quotas to match with respondents. This is harder if it is not a standard national sample, as they have to find what is typical across 38 marginals, not the well known national figures that are regularly used.
I do not disagree with Robert's comments . It was yourself that brought 2010 into the picture and stated , that the national polls were more accurate in forecasting that result than marginals polls . . I have simply shown that back in May 2009 ( one year away from the next GE as now ) the national polls were nowhere near an accurate forecast of what would happen a year later . .
My comments regarding 2010 was comparing the various polls of marginals in the campaign with the national polls: the latter proved to be more accurate.
If you're arguing that ANY polling, marginal or national, with a year still to run before the election has very limited value then I would entirely agree with you.
Ashcroft marginals poll are on totally different scale than anything that we've seen previously. Also, unlike the 2009 PH survey, they are carried out by phone.
As to the 2010 campaign polling of the marginals - this was mostly carried out by Ipsos-MORI where the headline figures only included those 100% certain to vote. The polling would have been more accurate if the all naming a party figure had been used.
In the battlegrounds the party GOTV efforts work to ensure that even the most marginal voters turn out.
Self-certified "certainty" figures can be misleading when on polling day you are getting calls every couple of hours asking if you've voted yet.
The trick in Ealing Central is to squeeze the Liberal vote until the pips squeak - they have a good shout. Many viscerally anti-Tory Red Liberals in that seat - lots of leftie professionals who fell for the Liberal Winning Here con last time only to see Labour run the Tories closer and the Tory come through the middle. It's a genuine three-way marginal - a rare fish indeed.
How many in Ealing are now going to be worried about having to pay the Mansion Tax sometime though? It may be a modest number - but the majority in 2015 may well be a modest number....
How many of those who are at risk of paying the Mansion Tax are within the Tory Core Vote anyway? I would think rather a lot- therefore they won't be the voters in play.
Incidentally does anyone know what the current proposed threshold of the Mansion Tax is likely to be? I have read £2m as a suggestion but your comments about Ealing Central seems to suggest £1m (there really aren't very many houses in that are or conceivably will be worth £2m plus, even in the current market conditions). Of course if the tax is to actually raise any significant revenue, rather than just be a device to punish the very rich, the threshold needs to be £1m or perhaps even less.
Doesn't a million get you a nice shoe box in some parts of London these days ?
Perhaps rename it to the posh flat tax ?
Ha! Indeed. Although you'd still get a nice house in W5 for £1m.
Given that the single market is the one holy grail that everything else - the democratic deficit, the corruption, the mass immigration, the reams of regulation, the membership fees, the destructive CAP - is supposed to be worth, the argument is now wearing increasingly thin. Even if you allow for margin of error, it's clear that the benefit from trade over what we would get in a Mexico or South Korea-style FTA is highly marginal.
Mr. Socrates, the Commission might just be incompetent. Don't forget they claimed they couldn't be expected to deal with such high turnouts last time (I forget the precise figure but turnout was under 70%).
I can't believe the Electoral Commission has allowed this impostor UKIP party through with such a similar name and tag line. Coming on the back of UKIP not being able to be "The Independence Party", it seems like they're deliberately being complicit in hurting UKIP. I assume they're stuffed full of supporters of the big parties.
Exactly what I wrote on PB yesterday and got biffed for it.
Those are the only ones I have received, as well as a BNP one >< !
Whereabouts in the country are you ?
Lichfield constituency. Used to be a marginal but Fabricant has turned it into one of the safest Tory seats in the country. Before that it was Mid Staffs which Labour famously won in the 1990 by-election at the height of the poll tax protests.
Also in the BBC link, it really shows the BBC's bias. In an article covering a negative EU story, they quote three sentences from the report, yet four sentences from a pro-EU report a month back and three sentences from the pro-EU government.
This is from the Newark Advertiser website from Sunday. Apparently the meeting to choose the UKIP candidates who will be interviewed for selection was being held last night.
"The Newark branch of UKIP meets tomorrow night to decide who they want to fight the Newark by-election. Nominations for candidates close at midnight today. The national executive committee will then select who will go forward to appear before the Newark members.
There have been reports that East Midlands Euro MP Mr Roger Helmer, who defected from the Tories in 2012, was being lined up to fight the by-election.
Newark branch chairman Mr Peter Weston-Davies said today he was yet to be told who was on the list but said he would not be surprised to see Mr Helmer's name.
Mr Helmer was among four prospective MEPs who took part in a hustings at the Magnus School, Newark, last night. Issues raised included immigration, jobs, and if there should be a referendum over whether Britain should stay in or opt out of the European Union."
I may be making a rash assumption, but I'm guessing the general mood on the last question was in favour of such a referendum?
Actually looking around the Newark Advertiser site a bit more it is clear this is a case of poor reporting. The hustings was not just UKIP but representatives of a number of parties standing in the Euro elections. It was not a meeting arranged by UKIP.
Helmer was at a hustings even though he isn't yet the official candidate ? Seems odd. Or does that actually happen...
It was hustings for the Euro elections not the Westminster seat. Helmer is an MEP candidate
Patrick Wintour's crystal ball for UKGE 2015 and some scenarios from Tom Clark, with prediction percentages - how generated he does not vouchsafe, but he explicitly permutates the Scottish indy yes/no factor. .
All quiet on the IndyRef front today so guess my YESNP friends are still hungover from the excitement of the Sunday Herald coming out in favour because both its readers say YES.
some little sneak has clyped to the moderators about MP saying 'insulting' things about PB & OGH on another site.
You know this because?
It's not out with the bounds of possibility that a PB Mod saw the comments for themselves?
Ah, but then Nats would be denied a victim of Unionist conspiracy!
Those are the only ones I have received, as well as a BNP one >< !
Whereabouts in the country are you ?
Lichfield constituency. Used to be a marginal but Fabricant has turned it into one of the safest Tory seats in the country. Before that it was Mid Staffs which Labour famously won in the 1990 by-election at the height of the poll tax protests.
Lichfield County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn) MP: Michael Fabricant (CON) Electorate: 72,586 Turnout: 71.04% 2010 Votes 2010 Share Predicted Votes CON 28,048 54.40% 49.03% LIB 10,365 20.10% 3.31% LAB 10,230 19.84% 27.55% UKIP 2,920 5.66% 18.91% OTH 0 0.00% 1.19% CON Majority 17,683 34.29% Pred Maj 21.48%
Election and prediction broken down ward-by-ward Chance of winning CON 90.0% LIB 0.1% LAB 8.6% UKIP 1.3% OTH 0.0%
Those are the only ones I have received, as well as a BNP one >< !
Whereabouts in the country are you ?
Lichfield constituency. Used to be a marginal but Fabricant has turned it into one of the safest Tory seats in the country. Before that it was Mid Staffs which Labour famously won in the 1990 by-election at the height of the poll tax protests.
Lichfield County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn) MP: Michael Fabricant (CON) Electorate: 72,586 Turnout: 71.04% 2010 Votes 2010 Share Predicted Votes CON 28,048 54.40% 49.03% LIB 10,365 20.10% 3.31% LAB 10,230 19.84% 27.55% UKIP 2,920 5.66% 18.91% OTH 0 0.00% 1.19% CON Majority 17,683 34.29% Pred Maj 21.48%
Election and prediction broken down ward-by-ward Chance of winning CON 90.0% LIB 0.1% LAB 8.6% UKIP 1.3% OTH 0.0%
Newark County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands) MP: Patrick Mercer (CON) Electorate: 71,785 Turnout: 71.36% 2010 Votes 2010 Share Predicted Votes CON 27,590 53.86% 48.55% LAB 11,438 22.33% 29.86% LIB 10,246 20.00% 3.67% UKIP 1,954 3.81% 16.76% OTH 0 0.00% 1.16% CON Majority 16,152 31.53% Pred Maj 18.69%
Election and prediction broken down ward-by-ward Chance of winning CON 86.6% LAB 12.4% LIB 0.1% UKIP 0.9% OTH 0.0%
But yet you think Newark is vulnerable ?
If Newark is vulnerable - Lichfield isn't safe either.
I think UKIP would have a good chance of winning Lichfield in a by-election. HS2 goes right through the middle of the constituency (although personally I'm a big supporter of the project).
Mr. Observer, sounds like I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP's strategy will be firmly to try and grab would-be UKIP voters. Maybe Labour will enjoy a nice victory after all.
If you look at the policies and pitch there is not a scintilla of difference between the two. The Nattrass leaflet is smaller and less professional than the one we got from UKIP (nothing from anyone else), but being at the top of the ballot could well be a help - especially as we are not used to big lists in this part of the world. I can certainly see a few votes being placed mistakenly.
"With around 3.3 million young people eligible to vote for the first time in May 2015, this means about 1,350,000 say they will actually vote – and two million young people won’t use their vote in 2015.
Most of those who say they will vote choose the Labour Party (40%) over the Conservatives (25%) or UKIP (12%), with the Liberal Democrats struggling for support at just 5 per cent, below the Greens on 9 per cent."
@AndyJS - Fair enough. We shall see in due course. I've backed CON in Newark at 8-11 but that is about the limit of what I'd take. 4-7 is not value... The current 9-2 on UKIP could be value.
If the Conservatives lose to either Labour or UKIP in Newark then Cameron must surely go.
All quiet on the IndyRef front today so guess my YESNP friends are still hungover from the excitement of the Sunday Herald coming out in favour because both its readers say YES.
some little sneak has clyped to the moderators about MP saying 'insulting' things about PB & OGH on another site.
You know this because?
It's not out with the bounds of possibility that a PB Mod saw the comments for themselves?
Ah, but then Nats would be denied a victim of Unionist conspiracy!
We can also note that in that article, the pro-EU side gets eight sentences of quotes, plus a video, while the anti-EU side gets no coverage at all.
So in a story about a eurosceptic report, the pro-EU side gets more space, and in a story about a pro-EU report, the pro-EU side gets ALL of the space. It all makes sense at the Beeb. I'm being forced to pay taxes to pump out propaganda against my views.
Good morning all and enjoying the latest Antifrank analyses. If I read him correctly there are fewer seats in the round than some would suggest. All quiet on the IndyRef front today so guess my YESNP friends are still hungover from the excitement of the Sunday Herald coming out in favour because both its readers say YES.
Easterross , just relaxing , been no nonsense from usual subjects to be bothered about and media seem to be having a day off lying and smearing. Be interesting to see how many Sunday Herald's sold Sunday, I hear it was hard to get one, luckily mine is delivered. Sunday Herald has been one of the few to halt or at least slow the decline in circulation , but was certainly a shadow of former self at around 23K. The Herald has decided to be neutral , which is a joke given Gardham's viewpoint but I wonder when the SUN will join the cause.
"Labour has suspended Cranford ward candidate Gurpal Virdi from representing the party pending the outcome of a court case next month.
The former Met police officer from Hounslow is accused of indecently assaulting a boy nearly three decades ago and has been summoned to appear before Westminster Magistrates Court on May 30."
Good morning all and enjoying the latest Antifrank analyses. If I read him correctly there are fewer seats in the round than some would suggest. All quiet on the IndyRef front today so guess my YESNP friends are still hungover from the excitement of the Sunday Herald coming out in favour because both its readers say YES.
In fairness Easterross I don't think either of their readers were specifically asked and one of them, who was at dinner with me last night, is no longer a subscriber.
LOL, was he one of the two that told you they were going to England if a YES vote.
Also in the BBC link, it really shows the BBC's bias. In an article covering a negative EU story, they quote three sentences from the report, yet four sentences from a pro-EU report a month back and three sentences from the pro-EU government.
Alternatively, the BBC chose to run the story in the first place, provides a link to the Civitas report and summarises its main findings over 27 lines at the top of the piece. It provides alternative perspectives over 22 lines at the bottom.
Patrick Wintour's crystal ball for UKGE 2015 and some scenarios from Tom Clark, with prediction percentages - how generated he does not vouchsafe, but he explicitly permutates the Scottish indy yes/no factor. .
Thanks - the Wintour article is excellent - Clark, pedestrian by comparison.
As Wintour concludes:
In the end it may depend on the state of Conservative party morale by election day, and whether it has held together through the storms of the previous year. In his diaries, Donoughue recalls how the Callaghan government fell apart in 1979. He concluded: "It strikes me how governments are beaten from within and not without. The Tories have never done us this kind of damage and nor did the IMF. The present demonisation arises from within the Labour movement and the cabinet itself."
I'm sure TSE has seen the funny side in it being the Eagles biting his footie team on the bum?
In the interest of TSE's sanity please do not mention Liverpool's humiliating performance against Palace last night when they threw away a 0-3 lead and saw their premiership hopes reduced to tatters
I don't follow football. To stop me mistakenly mentioning or quoting something that might cause TSE pain, hurt and humiliation, can you make it clearer the sort of things that I should not mention?
I'd avoid the phrase "many a slip between cup and lip" for starters. That's been on the banned list for a few days. Now I'd steer clear of "soaring like an eagle" as well.
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory would be out too then?
I'm sure if we pool our resources we can stop TSE feeling liverish....
On the Sunday Herald endorsement, Prof Tomkins tweeted the respective circulations of the Sunday Herald and Sunday Post, adding the tag "#gamechanger" - I suspect he was being sarcastic....
Mr. Socrates, the Commission might just be incompetent. Don't forget they claimed they couldn't be expected to deal with such high turnouts last time (I forget the precise figure but turnout was under 70%).
Well, the incompetence seems to be aligning in an anti-UKIP direction for at least two important cases. There's two more coming up: whether UKIP will be excluded from being a major party despite outpolling the Lib Dems, and whether Farage will be allowed in the debates. If the Electoral Commission rules against UKIP in all four cases, it will be quite clear a deliberate anti-UKIP mentality exists at the place.
"Political parties in Haringey came together to campaign against a record number of UKIP candidates being fielded in the borough at this month’s elections.
Members of the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition handed out Stand Up to UKIP campaign leaflets in Crouch End, one of the controversial party’s target wards. "
"With around 3.3 million young people eligible to vote for the first time in May 2015, this means about 1,350,000 say they will actually vote – and two million young people won’t use their vote in 2015.
Most of those who say they will vote choose the Labour Party (40%) over the Conservatives (25%) or UKIP (12%), with the Liberal Democrats struggling for support at just 5 per cent, below the Greens on 9 per cent."
The Euros are interesting as there is no tactical point to a vote. Clearly Labour are by far and away the party of the young voter. That's a decent score from UKIP though, given this is not the considered 'natural' demographic.
Utterly, utterly dire from the Lib Dems. I suspect the Greens will be pleased with 9%, given how little press coverage they get compared to UKIP, Lib, Lab, Con - though this should be a low hanging demographic for them so maybe just about par.
All quiet on the IndyRef front today so guess my YESNP friends are still hungover from the excitement of the Sunday Herald coming out in favour because both its readers say YES.
some little sneak has clyped to the moderators about MP saying 'insulting' things about PB & OGH on another site.
You know this because?
It's not out with the bounds of possibility that a PB Mod saw the comments for themselves?
Ah, but then Nats would be denied a victim of Unionist conspiracy!
Also in the BBC link, it really shows the BBC's bias. In an article covering a negative EU story, they quote three sentences from the report, yet four sentences from a pro-EU report a month back and three sentences from the pro-EU government.
Alternatively, the BBC chose to run the story in the first place, provides a link to the Civitas report and summarises its main findings over 27 lines at the top of the piece. It provides alternative perspectives over 22 lines at the bottom.
Yet the "alternative perspectives" weren't given at all when it was a pro-EU report that came out. Is this the BBC's view of balance? You provide it when it's an EU critical story, but don't bother in a pro-EU story?
All quiet on the IndyRef front today so guess my YESNP friends are still hungover from the excitement of the Sunday Herald coming out in favour because both its readers say YES.
some little sneak has clyped to the moderators about MP saying 'insulting' things about PB & OGH on another site.
You know this because?
It's not out with the bounds of possibility that a PB Mod saw the comments for themselves?
Ah, but then Nats would be denied a victim of Unionist conspiracy!
Er, 'cos the mods told me that was the case?
Fair enough - tho I prefer Malcolm's "insult you to your face" than Pork's "insult you behind your back"....
It looks like Ed Milliband is about to get another big win against Cameron on the Pfizer / Astra Zeneca bid. It is stunning that the Chairman of a major UK PLC has to tell the PM to shut up as he is appearing as a cheerleader for a US MNC with a history of asset stripping.
If Cameron is smart he will take a big step back and hand the issue back to Vince Cable and the select committees. If not he could be heading for another mess as when he spent days trying to support the big (mostly foreign owned) energy companies.
The funny thing is that Cameron is really a Teflon PM. His initial actions are often wrong but the one thing he is good at is doing a rapid U turn and getting away with it. He is no son of Thatcher.
All quiet on the IndyRef front today so guess my YESNP friends are still hungover from the excitement of the Sunday Herald coming out in favour because both its readers say YES.
It's quiet because it's getting to the point where there'll only be a couple of 'YESNP'ers on here. Mick Pork has had his posting rights suspended because some little sneak has clyped to the moderators about MP saying 'insulting' things about PB & OGH on another site.
The three internet behaviours I really despise are aftertiming, trying to get fellow posters banned and grassing up fellow posters on the sly. Perhaps the PB super snitch would like to fess up to their activities so that they're only one-down on the ****er quotient.
All quiet on the IndyRef front today so guess my YESNP friends are still hungover from the excitement of the Sunday Herald coming out in favour because both its readers say YES.
some little sneak has clyped to the moderators about MP saying 'insulting' things about PB & OGH on another site.
You know this because?
It's not out with the bounds of possibility that a PB Mod saw the comments for themselves?
Ah, but then Nats would be denied a victim of Unionist conspiracy!
Er, 'cos the mods told me that was the case?
Fair enough - tho I prefer Malcolm's "insult you to your face" than Pork's "insult you behind your back"....
Yeah, right, Mick would never insult you to your face...
If he's given the opportunity, I'm sure Mick will be happy to return to full frontal mode.
"Political parties in Haringey came together to campaign against a record number of UKIP candidates being fielded in the borough at this month’s elections.
Members of the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition handed out Stand Up to UKIP campaign leaflets in Crouch End, one of the controversial party’s target wards. "
Also in the BBC link, it really shows the BBC's bias. In an article covering a negative EU story, they quote three sentences from the report, yet four sentences from a pro-EU report a month back and three sentences from the pro-EU government.
Alternatively, the BBC chose to run the story in the first place, provides a link to the Civitas report and summarises its main findings over 27 lines at the top of the piece. It provides alternative perspectives over 22 lines at the bottom.
Yet the "alternative perspectives" weren't given at all when it was a pro-EU report that came out. Is this the BBC's view of balance? You provide it when it's an EU critical story, but don't bother in a pro-EU story?
The CBI is not Civitas. It is a very different organisation whose membership is composed of British businesses. For that reason in and of itself its views are newsworthy. The way the BBC covered the CBI report is the way almost all other major UK news outlets did.
Interesting that the Tories have put up a full slate of candidates in Newham, but failed to do so in Islington.
In 4 of the 8 wards comprising the Islington North constituency they've failed to put up any candidates. (Each ward elects 3 members). The wards in question are Finsbury Park, Hillrise, St George's, Tollington. They've also failed to put any up in Holloway which is in Islington South.
That's my current weekday patch. So far have had two Green leaflets and a UKIP one there, while the family I stay with in Broxtowe at weekends have had one UKIP leaflet. The London area is very mixed by ethnicity and class, that particular Broxtowe ward (Beeston West) is deepest Guardian territory. Neither are remotely UKIP territory, so either they're doing everyone or their targeting is a bit random, perhaps simply where they've got a member willing to spend a few hours doing it.
This is from the Newark Advertiser website from Sunday. Apparently the meeting to choose the UKIP candidates who will be interviewed for selection was being held last night.
"The Newark branch of UKIP meets tomorrow night to decide who they want to fight the Newark by-election. Nominations for candidates close at midnight today. The national executive committee will then select who will go forward to appear before the Newark members.
There have been reports that East Midlands Euro MP Mr Roger Helmer, who defected from the Tories in 2012, was being lined up to fight the by-election.
Newark branch chairman Mr Peter Weston-Davies said today he was yet to be told who was on the list but said he would not be surprised to see Mr Helmer's name.
Mr Helmer was among four prospective MEPs who took part in a hustings at the Magnus School, Newark, last night. Issues raised included immigration, jobs, and if there should be a referendum over whether Britain should stay in or opt out of the European Union."
UKIP have been highlighting negative press stories about other party candidates recently. I had thought that was what Mr Farage was referring to.
That said, after Diane James became the face of UKIP during the Eastleigh by-election, UKIP's support among women apparently improved: 28%>46% (I think these numbers refer to the proportion of women making up UKIP's supporters)
Ireland services and composite PMIs increased to all time highs of 61.9 and 60.8, both suggesting that GDP growth is running at more than 4% y-o-y. UK performed likewise extremely strongly, with numbers of 58.7 and 59.2.
Spain continues to show rapid improvement. Unemployment fell by 111,600 people in April (against an expected drop of less than half that). This is the second largest monthly drop ever. PMIs also beat expectations in Spain, at 56.5 and 56.3, suggesting my 2% forecast for Q4 GDP growth may be pessimistic.
The Euro-laggard continues to be France. Its PMIs stayed - barely - in positive territory, at 50.4 and 50.6.
What we're all ignoring a bit is what might happen to the polls themselves as we see more of the Eds and their policies in the run up to the GE. That's when 99% of the population tune their 'once every 5 years' antenna onto politics. There is a real risk for Labour of polling meltdown when it becomes clear to all and not just politics anoraks that Labour are led by a drooling moron and have an incoherent ruinous mess of a manifesto. Be in no doubt - Labour are in for a serious monstering in a year's time.
You posted almost daily about the coming Brown epiphany in 2010.
It didn't happen in 2010, so you are going to have to come up with a really good reason why it will happen in 2015 for Miliband and Balls.
Mr. Socrates, the Commission might just be incompetent. Don't forget they claimed they couldn't be expected to deal with such high turnouts last time (I forget the precise figure but turnout was under 70%).
Well, the incompetence seems to be aligning in an anti-UKIP direction for at least two important cases. There's two more coming up: whether UKIP will be excluded from being a major party despite outpolling the Lib Dems, and whether Farage will be allowed in the debates. If the Electoral Commission rules against UKIP in all four cases, it will be quite clear a deliberate anti-UKIP mentality exists at the place.
Although it's worth mentioning that they have 'form' as regards allowing the Literal Democrat to stand, whenever that was...
"Political parties in Haringey came together to campaign against a record number of UKIP candidates being fielded in the borough at this month’s elections.
Members of the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition handed out Stand Up to UKIP campaign leaflets in Crouch End, one of the controversial party’s target wards. "
The Conservatives could suffer if this becomes the cultural norm. My Facebook is being spammed up by anti-UKIP stuff too.
You're either with us (Voting Lib-Lab-Green) or against us (UKIP)... Conservatives not mentioned !
I think as regards social media the Conservatives have been helped no end by UKIP, as long as they aren't damaged by association (as the political right). In 2010 and thereafter there was no end of misleading and forthright attacks on the Tories that were very popular (one that comes to mind was a dissection of Theresa May's voting record on LGBT rights). I haven't seen any yet, although no doubt there will be some, but UKIP is by far in pole position as pillory, fairly or unfairly.
What we're all ignoring a bit is what might happen to the polls themselves as we see more of the Eds and their policies in the run up to the GE. That's when 99% of the population tune their 'once every 5 years' antenna onto politics. There is a real risk for Labour of polling meltdown when it becomes clear to all and not just politics anoraks that Labour are led by a drooling moron and have an incoherent ruinous mess of a manifesto. Be in no doubt - Labour are in for a serious monstering in a year's time.
You posted almost daily about the coming Brown epiphany in 2010.
It didn't happen in 2010, so you are going to have to come up with a really good reason why it will happen in 2015 for Miliband and Balls.
People screaming about the potential Pfizer takeover are nevertheless happy for Indians and Germans to come in, buy up ailing UK car makers and turn them into global players employing many thousands.
I fail to see how we can have one without the other.
"Political parties in Haringey came together to campaign against a record number of UKIP candidates being fielded in the borough at this month’s elections.
Members of the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition handed out Stand Up to UKIP campaign leaflets in Crouch End, one of the controversial party’s target wards. "
The Conservatives could suffer if this becomes the cultural norm. My Facebook is being spammed up by anti-UKIP stuff too.
You're either with us (Voting Lib-Lab-Green) or against us (UKIP)... Conservatives not mentioned !
I think as regards social media the Conservatives have been helped no end by UKIP, as long as they aren't damaged by association (as the political right). In 2010 and thereafter there was no end of misleading and forthright attacks on the Tories that were very popular (one that comes to mind was a dissection of Theresa May's voting record on LGBT rights). I haven't seen any yet, although no doubt there will be some, but UKIP is by far in pole position as pillory, fairly or unfairly.
My politically misguided friends posting the guff on Facebook are voting either Labour or Green
Miss Cyclefree, saw that story last night. I'd be greatly surprised if it were, given Farage has rebuffed FN quite clearly before.
I hope it isn't true, not because I'm a UKIP supporter (I'm not) but because anything which gives credibility to parties like the Front National is to be deplored. It sounds like kite-flying but interesting that the DT - which some here have said is UKIP supporting - should fly this particular kite.
People screaming about the potential Pfizer takeover are nevertheless happy for Indians and Germans to come in, buy up ailing UK car makers and turn them into global players employing many thousands.
I fail to see how we can have one without the other.
Public interest test. Lead by a judge or something.
Interesting that the Tories have put up a full slate of candidates in Newham, but failed to do so in Islington.
In 4 of the 8 wards comprising the Islington North constituency they've failed to put up any candidates. (Each ward elects 3 members). The wards in question are Finsbury Park, Hillrise, St George's, Tollington. They've also failed to put any up in Holloway which is in Islington South.
That's my current weekday patch. So far have had two Green leaflets and a UKIP one there, while the family I stay with in Broxtowe at weekends have had one UKIP leaflet. The London area is very mixed by ethnicity and class, that particular Broxtowe ward (Beeston West) is deepest Guardian territory. Neither are remotely UKIP territory, so either they're doing everyone or their targeting is a bit random, perhaps simply where they've got a member willing to spend a few hours doing it.
UKIP aren't standing in those Islington wards either. The choice is Lab, LD, Green. A lefty paradise, (except for those who regard the LDs as right-wing traitors).
"With around 3.3 million young people eligible to vote for the first time in May 2015, this means about 1,350,000 say they will actually vote – and two million young people won’t use their vote in 2015.
Most of those who say they will vote choose the Labour Party (40%) over the Conservatives (25%) or UKIP (12%), with the Liberal Democrats struggling for support at just 5 per cent, below the Greens on 9 per cent."
The Euros are interesting as there is no tactical point to a vote. Clearly Labour are by far and away the party of the young voter. That's a decent score from UKIP though, given this is not the considered 'natural' demographic.
Utterly, utterly dire from the Lib Dems. I suspect the Greens will be pleased with 9%, given how little press coverage they get compared to UKIP, Lib, Lab, Con - though this should be a low hanging demographic for them so maybe just about par.
12% support for UKIP among young voters is encouraging. As is 25% for Conservatives. To have nearly 40% of that age cohort supporting centre-right parties is a good achievement.
"With around 3.3 million young people eligible to vote for the first time in May 2015, this means about 1,350,000 say they will actually vote – and two million young people won’t use their vote in 2015.
Most of those who say they will vote choose the Labour Party (40%) over the Conservatives (25%) or UKIP (12%), with the Liberal Democrats struggling for support at just 5 per cent, below the Greens on 9 per cent."
The Euros are interesting as there is no tactical point to a vote. Clearly Labour are by far and away the party of the young voter. That's a decent score from UKIP though, given this is not the considered 'natural' demographic.
Utterly, utterly dire from the Lib Dems. I suspect the Greens will be pleased with 9%, given how little press coverage they get compared to UKIP, Lib, Lab, Con - though this should be a low hanging demographic for them so maybe just about par.
12% support for UKIP among young voters is encouraging. As is 25% for Conservatives. To have nearly 40% of that age cohort supporting centre-right parties is a good achievement.
Most of those who aren't going to bother to vote would probably be Labour supporters.
People screaming about the potential Pfizer takeover are nevertheless happy for Indians and Germans to come in, buy up ailing UK car makers and turn them into global players employing many thousands.
I fail to see how we can have one without the other.
There are cultural differences in the workings of capitalism. The Americans take a very hard-nosed approach to takeovers - if the business flounders they are likely to dump it, in spite of any adverse social consequences. The Germans will look at potential to improve their market dominance and will invest to do that. They like to be in control. The Indian Tata group is basically a trust with a capitalist outlook, so will be inclined to invest for the long term.
"Political parties in Haringey came together to campaign against a record number of UKIP candidates being fielded in the borough at this month’s elections.
Members of the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition handed out Stand Up to UKIP campaign leaflets in Crouch End, one of the controversial party’s target wards. "
Miss Cyclefree, saw that story last night. I'd be greatly surprised if it were, given Farage has rebuffed FN quite clearly before.
I hope it isn't true, not because I'm a UKIP supporter (I'm not) but because anything which gives credibility to parties like the Front National is to be deplored. It sounds like kite-flying but interesting that the DT - which some here have said is UKIP supporting - should fly this particular kite.
You could argue that Mr Waterfield is just doing a good job, getting a quote from Mr Wilders. A reporter based in the Hague has to work up articles from something.
He makes a good point too:
"...a new Eurosceptic grouping will pose a major political problem for Mr Farage because it threatens to isolate him and to break up his current Europe of Freedom and Democracy group in the parliament, with the loss of around £1 million a year in funding."
Mick Pork has had his posting rights suspended because some little sneak has clyped to the moderators about MP saying 'insulting' things about PB & OGH on another site.
Thank Ford for that. Like the Telegraph and its UKIP amen chorus he was doing a lot to make the site unreadable.
The three internet behaviours I really despise are aftertiming, trying to get fellow posters banned and grassing up fellow posters on the sly. Perhaps the PB super snitch would like to fess up to their activities so that they're only one-down on the ****er quotient.
47 people died last year when a freight train ran away downhill and derailed in Lac-Megantic, Canada. Its load of crude oil exploded in the centre of the town. It turns out that the type of wagon involved - the DOT-111 - was known to split open in derailments and crashes. There have been warnings about their danger for two decades.
I know many on here (including myself at times) tend to diss health and safety. But this is a classic example of where near-misses have been routinely ignored to tragic effect.
"Political parties in Haringey came together to campaign against a record number of UKIP candidates being fielded in the borough at this month’s elections.
Members of the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition handed out Stand Up to UKIP campaign leaflets in Crouch End, one of the controversial party’s target wards. "
Mick Pork has had his posting rights suspended because some little sneak has clyped to the moderators about MP saying 'insulting' things about PB & OGH on another site.
Thank Ford for that. Like the Telegraph and its UKIP amen chorus he was doing a lot to make the site unreadable.
The three internet behaviours I really despise are aftertiming, trying to get fellow posters banned and grassing up fellow posters on the sly. Perhaps the PB super snitch would like to fess up to their activities so that they're only one-down on the ****er quotient.
What's aftertiming?
Saying "I knew that would happen" after it has already happened, having not said it before
Miss Cyclefree, saw that story last night. I'd be greatly surprised if it were, given Farage has rebuffed FN quite clearly before.
I hope it isn't true, not because I'm a UKIP supporter (I'm not) but because anything which gives credibility to parties like the Front National is to be deplored. It sounds like kite-flying but interesting that the DT - which some here have said is UKIP supporting - should fly this particular kite.
You could argue that Mr Waterfield is just doing a good job, getting a quote from Mr Wilders. A reporter based in the Hague has to work up articles from something.
He makes a good point too:
"...a new Eurosceptic grouping will pose a major political problem for Mr Farage because it threatens to isolate him and to break up his current Europe of Freedom and Democracy group in the parliament, with the loss of around £1 million a year in funding."
You can't trust those sneaky Europeans, ganging up against the British and sabotaging them.
People screaming about the potential Pfizer takeover are nevertheless happy for Indians and Germans to come in, buy up ailing UK car makers and turn them into global players employing many thousands.
I fail to see how we can have one without the other.
There are cultural differences in the workings of capitalism. The Americans take a very hard-nosed approach to takeovers - if the business flounders they are likely to dump it, in spite of any adverse social consequences. The Germans will look at potential to improve their market dominance and will invest to do that. They like to be in control. The Indian Tata group is basically a trust with a capitalist outlook, so will be inclined to invest for the long term.
From what I have read, the concern is not that Pfizer is foreign but that it has a history of asset-stripping rather than investment, with all the negative consequences for R&D here that such action would entail, and that the main motive appears to be to save tax rather than long-term investment in a key British industry.
Plus the history of Kraft's broken promises and 2-fingers approach to Parliament does not inspire confidence in whatever bland assurances Pfizer may have written, which anyway are not worth the paper they're written on.
We can also note that in that article, the pro-EU side gets eight sentences of quotes, plus a video, while the anti-EU side gets no coverage at all.
So in a story about a eurosceptic report, the pro-EU side gets more space, and in a story about a pro-EU report, the pro-EU side gets ALL of the space. It all makes sense at the Beeb. I'm being forced to pay taxes to pump out propaganda against my views.
You only have to pay for the BBC if you watch, or record, live broadcasts on TV. That is a choice. You are not forced to do so. I do not pay the licence fee, because I do not watch live broadcasts of TV.
Interesting that the Tories have put up a full slate of candidates in Newham, but failed to do so in Islington.
In 4 of the 8 wards comprising the Islington North constituency they've failed to put up any candidates. (Each ward elects 3 members). The wards in question are Finsbury Park, Hillrise, St George's, Tollington. They've also failed to put any up in Holloway which is in Islington South.
That's my current weekday patch. So far have had two Green leaflets and a UKIP one there, while the family I stay with in Broxtowe at weekends have had one UKIP leaflet. The London area is very mixed by ethnicity and class, that particular Broxtowe ward (Beeston West) is deepest Guardian territory. Neither are remotely UKIP territory, so either they're doing everyone or their targeting is a bit random, perhaps simply where they've got a member willing to spend a few hours doing it.
UKIP aren't standing in those Islington wards either. The choice is Lab, LD, Green. A lefty paradise, (except for those who regard the LDs as right-wing traitors).
Be interesting to see if there are a higher than normal proportion of spoilt ballots (I am assuming that the Tory voters don't realise the lack of options until they get to the polling booth - at which point do they spoil ballot or vote LD?)
the main motive appears to be to save tax rather than long-term investment in a key British industry.
Looks like we'll have to get used to it. The telly over the week-end reported that hundreds of overseas companies are considering a UK domicile because of Ossie's corporation tax cuts.
Excellent! My personal favourite is the annual Gravedodger Chetenham 5k-30k thread on the Betfair forum wherein he invariably indicated that he had some inside info & some side money on the winner even after his (numerous) losing bets. Unfortunately it was cruelly cut short this year after he blew his bank in the first 1 or 2 bets.
We can also note that in that article, the pro-EU side gets eight sentences of quotes, plus a video, while the anti-EU side gets no coverage at all.
So in a story about a eurosceptic report, the pro-EU side gets more space, and in a story about a pro-EU report, the pro-EU side gets ALL of the space. It all makes sense at the Beeb. I'm being forced to pay taxes to pump out propaganda against my views.
You only have to pay for the BBC if you watch, or record, live broadcasts on TV. That is a choice. You are not forced to do so. I do not pay the licence fee, because I do not watch live broadcasts of TV.
No. You have to pay if you watch live broadcasts from any provider not just the BBC. More over you have to pay if you have a TV in the house capable of receiving the live broadcasts - whether you watch or not.
Supposing there is a YES vote for Scottish independence, it would leave Cameron with a majority of 19 when excluding Scottish constituencies (and Sinn Fein, would be increased to 21 if the Tories hold Newark, as Mercer has been sitting as an independent).
I can't see the House of Commons passing any laws that relate to Scotland after a YES vote on independence, and so it also seems incomprehensible that MPs sitting for Scottish constituencies would vote on laws for a country they would be shortly leaving.
What could Cameron do with a ~6 month period where he doesn't need to rely on Lib Dem coalition support?
Interesting that the Tories have put up a full slate of candidates in Newham, but failed to do so in Islington.
In 4 of the 8 wards comprising the Islington North constituency they've failed to put up any candidates. (Each ward elects 3 members). The wards in question are Finsbury Park, Hillrise, St George's, Tollington. They've also failed to put any up in Holloway which is in Islington South.
That's my current weekday patch. So far have had two Green leaflets and a UKIP one there, while the family I stay with in Broxtowe at weekends have had one UKIP leaflet. The London area is very mixed by ethnicity and class, that particular Broxtowe ward (Beeston West) is deepest Guardian territory. Neither are remotely UKIP territory, so either they're doing everyone or their targeting is a bit random, perhaps simply where they've got a member willing to spend a few hours doing it.
UKIP aren't standing in those Islington wards either. The choice is Lab, LD, Green. A lefty paradise, (except for those who regard the LDs as right-wing traitors).
Be interesting to see if there are a higher than normal proportion of spoilt ballots (I am assuming that the Tory voters don't realise the lack of options until they get to the polling booth - at which point do they spoil ballot or vote LD?)
Yes and of course Tory voters will make the trip to the polling station because they can still vote Tory in the Euro elections. If it was just the local election more of them would stay at home.
We can also note that in that article, the pro-EU side gets eight sentences of quotes, plus a video, while the anti-EU side gets no coverage at all.
So in a story about a eurosceptic report, the pro-EU side gets more space, and in a story about a pro-EU report, the pro-EU side gets ALL of the space. It all makes sense at the Beeb. I'm being forced to pay taxes to pump out propaganda against my views.
You only have to pay for the BBC if you watch, or record, live broadcasts on TV. That is a choice. You are not forced to do so. I do not pay the licence fee, because I do not watch live broadcasts of TV.
No. You have to pay if you watch live broadcasts from any provider not just the BBC. More over you have to pay if you have a TV in the house capable of receiving the live broadcasts - whether you watch or not.
http://www.tvlicensing.co.uk/check-if-you-need-one Quote: You need to be covered by a valid TV Licence if you watch or record TV as it's being broadcast. This includes the use of devices such as a computer, laptop, mobile phone or DVD/video recorder. Endquote
I may not, for instance (as a non-licensee) watch PMQs live on my PC. I don't think it's not allowed to have a TV in the house, but I can't imagine wanting one. Certainly half a dozen or so of my friends agree.
Miss Cyclefree, saw that story last night. I'd be greatly surprised if it were, given Farage has rebuffed FN quite clearly before.
I hope it isn't true, not because I'm a UKIP supporter (I'm not) but because anything which gives credibility to parties like the Front National is to be deplored. It sounds like kite-flying but interesting that the DT - which some here have said is UKIP supporting - should fly this particular kite.
You could argue that Mr Waterfield is just doing a good job, getting a quote from Mr Wilders. A reporter based in the Hague has to work up articles from something.
He makes a good point too:
"...a new Eurosceptic grouping will pose a major political problem for Mr Farage because it threatens to isolate him and to break up his current Europe of Freedom and Democracy group in the parliament, with the loss of around £1 million a year in funding."
You can't trust those sneaky Europeans, ganging up against the British and sabotaging them.
There is a possibility that Mr Wilder's choice of a fluorescent green tie was intended to blind Telegraph readers, so watch out for Triffids this week.
Mr. Tyndall, is that correct? I thought if you had a television as, for example, a decorative item that was never used you didn't have to pay.
Mr. Me, the referendum on Europe would be wanted by his backbenchers.
The law's a mess. I certainly recognise the scenario Mr Tyndall mentions, and allegedly it was no good even if the plug had been cut off - you'd still get done.
But Wiki says:
TV Licensing offers the following advice to those who have a TV but 'who wish to make it clear that they do not need a licence':[34]
remove the television from the aerial; cover the aerial socket so that it can't be used; ensure that when channels on the television are selected no television signal is received.
Regardless, the TV licence fee does not have a long-term future in its current form, for all the reasons I've given passim. Their first stabs at proposing changes - for instance funding it from general taxation, a tax per house, or a subscription service - all have fundamental problems.
Supposing there is a YES vote for Scottish independence, it would leave Cameron with a majority of 19 when excluding Scottish constituencies (and Sinn Fein, would be increased to 21 if the Tories hold Newark, as Mercer has been sitting as an independent).
I can't see the House of Commons passing any laws that relate to Scotland after a YES vote on independence, and so it also seems incomprehensible that MPs sitting for Scottish constituencies would vote on laws for a country they would be shortly leaving.
What could Cameron do with a ~6 month period where he doesn't need to rely on Lib Dem coalition support?
Supposing there is a YES vote for Scottish independence, it would leave Cameron with a majority of 19 when excluding Scottish constituencies (and Sinn Fein, would be increased to 21 if the Tories hold Newark, as Mercer has been sitting as an independent).
I can't see the House of Commons passing any laws that relate to Scotland after a YES vote on independence, and so it also seems incomprehensible that MPs sitting for Scottish constituencies would vote on laws for a country they would be shortly leaving.
What could Cameron do with a ~6 month period where he doesn't need to rely on Lib Dem coalition support?
Comments
Perhaps rename it to the posh flat tax ?
UKMEP MIKE NATTRASS
Party Leader, requests your Vote for
"AN INDEPENDENCE FROM EUROPE"
At the top of your ballot paper on 22nd May.
Then a square logo with an EU flag and OUT superimposed on it.
On each side of the square:
UK Independence NOW
Say NO to HS2
EU harms Working People
Cap Immigration
On the other side, there is a lot of rambling text, but at the top it reads:
AN INDEPENDENCE FROM EUROPE
Tops your ballot paper
Look for the logo
The three internet behaviours I really despise are aftertiming, trying to get fellow posters banned and grassing up fellow posters on the sly. Perhaps the PB super snitch would like to fess up to their activities so that they're only one-down on the ****er quotient.
"....Overall, if the results of the poll across marginals suggests a different swing from that suggested by the whole weight of national polls, it's probable that it's the marginals poll that is wrong....."
That is the crucial point, isn't it? Aren't we at one on that?
It's not so long ago that indy was a fringe enthusiasm (or at least portrayed as so by the chorusing media and political classes). Indeed, I was reflecting during the recent discussion of Steve Bell's cartoons that they show very clearly how modern orthodoxy was regarded as barking mad back in the late 70s and early 80s - vide Sir Keith Joseph in a straitjacket spouting his privatization delusions.
UKIP
Nattrass
Done the double over Liverpool & Man City, took 4 points off Arsenal, Tottenham & Man Utd, but slipped up against lesser teams like Sunderland, Norwich, Villa & West Ham
Whereabouts in the country are you ?
As to the 2010 campaign polling of the marginals - this was mostly carried out by Ipsos-MORI where the headline figures only included those 100% certain to vote. The polling would have been more accurate if the all naming a party figure had been used.
In the battlegrounds the party GOTV efforts work to ensure that even the most marginal voters turn out.
Self-certified "certainty" figures can be misleading when on polling day you are getting calls every couple of hours asking if you've voted yet.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27284489
Given that the single market is the one holy grail that everything else - the democratic deficit, the corruption, the mass immigration, the reams of regulation, the membership fees, the destructive CAP - is supposed to be worth, the argument is now wearing increasingly thin. Even if you allow for margin of error, it's clear that the benefit from trade over what we would get in a Mexico or South Korea-style FTA is highly marginal.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/06/2015-post-election-scenarios
Patrick Wintour's crystal ball for UKGE 2015 and some scenarios from Tom Clark, with prediction percentages - how generated he does not vouchsafe, but he explicitly permutates the Scottish indy yes/no factor. .
@MikeSmithson
But I think I'm right in saying that turnout in marginal seats was not much higher (if at all) than overall. Why would that be?
It's not out with the bounds of possibility that a PB Mod saw the comments for themselves?
Ah, but then Nats would be denied a victim of Unionist conspiracy!
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Michael Fabricant (CON)
Electorate: 72,586
Turnout: 71.04%
2010 Votes 2010 Share Predicted Votes
CON 28,048 54.40% 49.03%
LIB 10,365 20.10% 3.31%
LAB 10,230 19.84% 27.55%
UKIP 2,920 5.66% 18.91%
OTH 0 0.00% 1.19%
CON Majority 17,683 34.29% Pred Maj 21.48%
Election and prediction broken down ward-by-ward
Chance of winning
CON
90.0%
LIB
0.1%
LAB
8.6%
UKIP
1.3%
OTH
0.0%
_______________________________________________________________
Newark
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Patrick Mercer (CON)
Electorate: 71,785
Turnout: 71.36%
2010 Votes 2010 Share Predicted Votes
CON 27,590 53.86% 48.55%
LAB 11,438 22.33% 29.86%
LIB 10,246 20.00% 3.67%
UKIP 1,954 3.81% 16.76%
OTH 0 0.00% 1.16%
CON Majority 16,152 31.53% Pred Maj 18.69%
Election and prediction broken down ward-by-ward
Chance of winning
CON
86.6%
LAB
12.4%
LIB
0.1%
UKIP
0.9%
OTH
0.0%
But yet you think Newark is vulnerable ?
If Newark is vulnerable - Lichfield isn't safe either.
Most of those who say they will vote choose the Labour Party (40%) over the Conservatives (25%) or UKIP (12%), with the Liberal Democrats struggling for support at just 5 per cent, below the Greens on 9 per cent."
http://www.britishfuture.org/articles/first-time-voters/
If the Conservatives lose to either Labour or UKIP in Newark then Cameron must surely go.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24773179
We can also note that in that article, the pro-EU side gets eight sentences of quotes, plus a video, while the anti-EU side gets no coverage at all.
So in a story about a eurosceptic report, the pro-EU side gets more space, and in a story about a pro-EU report, the pro-EU side gets ALL of the space. It all makes sense at the Beeb. I'm being forced to pay taxes to pump out propaganda against my views.
The Herald has decided to be neutral , which is a joke given Gardham's viewpoint but I wonder when the SUN will join the cause.
The former Met police officer from Hounslow is accused of indecently assaulting a boy nearly three decades ago and has been summoned to appear before Westminster Magistrates Court on May 30."
http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/local-news/labour-suspends-hounslow-candidate-over-7041006
twitter.com/UKIP/status/463600410616664064
They announced 36,000 on 21st April.
twitter.com/UKIP/status/458239253043249152
Yogalingam Dayanamby had been selected as a candidate for the Labour Party to stand in the local elections later this month in Canons ward.
However in 2007 he was found guilty of fraudulently claiming £811.93 council tax benefit from Harrow Borough Council. "
http://www.harrowtimes.co.uk/news/11189963.Labour_council_candidate_suspended_following_benefit_fraud_conviction/?ref=var_0
Read more: http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Leicestershire-county-councillor-Tony-Kershaw/story-21048478-detail/story.html#ixzz30vVkGsQJ
As Wintour concludes:
In the end it may depend on the state of Conservative party morale by election day, and whether it has held together through the storms of the previous year. In his diaries, Donoughue recalls how the Callaghan government fell apart in 1979. He concluded: "It strikes me how governments are beaten from within and not without. The Tories have never done us this kind of damage and nor did the IMF. The present demonisation arises from within the Labour movement and the cabinet itself."
Members of the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition handed out Stand Up to UKIP campaign leaflets in Crouch End, one of the controversial party’s target wards. "
http://www.haringeyindependent.co.uk/news/11187163.Political_parties_unite_to_oppose_record_number_of_UKIP_candidates/
Utterly, utterly dire from the Lib Dems. I suspect the Greens will be pleased with 9%, given how little press coverage they get compared to UKIP, Lib, Lab, Con - though this should be a low hanging demographic for them so maybe just about par.
If Cameron is smart he will take a big step back and hand the issue back to Vince Cable and the select committees. If not he could be heading for another mess as when he spent days trying to support the big (mostly foreign owned) energy companies.
The funny thing is that Cameron is really a Teflon PM. His initial actions are often wrong but the one thing he is good at is doing a rapid U turn and getting away with it. He is no son of Thatcher.
If he's given the opportunity, I'm sure Mick will be happy to return to full frontal mode.
You're either with us (Voting Lib-Lab-Green) or against us (UKIP)... Conservatives not mentioned !
That said, after Diane James became the face of UKIP during the Eastleigh by-election, UKIP's support among women apparently improved: 28%>46% (I think these numbers refer to the proportion of women making up UKIP's supporters)
youtu.be/PzCs_dZVb6M
Ireland services and composite PMIs increased to all time highs of 61.9 and 60.8, both suggesting that GDP growth is running at more than 4% y-o-y. UK performed likewise extremely strongly, with numbers of 58.7 and 59.2.
Spain continues to show rapid improvement. Unemployment fell by 111,600 people in April (against an expected drop of less than half that). This is the second largest monthly drop ever. PMIs also beat expectations in Spain, at 56.5 and 56.3, suggesting my 2% forecast for Q4 GDP growth may be pessimistic.
The Euro-laggard continues to be France. Its PMIs stayed - barely - in positive territory, at 50.4 and 50.6.
It didn't happen in 2010, so you are going to have to come up with a really good reason why it will happen in 2015 for Miliband and Balls.
I fail to see how we can have one without the other.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2621260/Widow-gang-raped-punishment-having-affair-married-man-Indonesia-caned-public-Sharia-law.html
He makes a good point too:
"...a new Eurosceptic grouping will pose a major political problem for Mr Farage because it threatens to isolate him and to break up his current Europe of Freedom and Democracy group in the parliament, with the loss of around £1 million a year in funding."
When safety warnings go unheeded...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-27136272
47 people died last year when a freight train ran away downhill and derailed in Lac-Megantic, Canada. Its load of crude oil exploded in the centre of the town. It turns out that the type of wagon involved - the DOT-111 - was known to split open in derailments and crashes. There have been warnings about their danger for two decades.
I know many on here (including myself at times) tend to diss health and safety. But this is a classic example of where near-misses have been routinely ignored to tragic effect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DOT-111_tank_car
Saying "I knew that would happen" after it has already happened, having not said it before
I remember watching a tory party conference in the 1980s where a speaker was calling for the re-introduction of the birch for young offenders.
And you're very welcome.
Mr. Isam, shouldn't that be called Cabling?
Mr. Antifrank, I share your concerns about the financial transaction tax.
http://mrbasquill.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/the-art-of-aftertime.html
Plus the history of Kraft's broken promises and 2-fingers approach to Parliament does not inspire confidence in whatever bland assurances Pfizer may have written, which anyway are not worth the paper they're written on.
Hmm. Given its third century I wonder if that was the Roman or the Gallic Empire arranging things...
.....
It sounds like a wonderful system!
Looks like we'll have to get used to it. The telly over the week-end reported that hundreds of overseas companies are considering a UK domicile because of Ossie's corporation tax cuts.
My personal favourite is the annual Gravedodger Chetenham 5k-30k thread on the Betfair forum wherein he invariably indicated that he had some inside info & some side money on the winner even after his (numerous) losing bets. Unfortunately it was cruelly cut short this year after he blew his bank in the first 1 or 2 bets.
Supposing there is a YES vote for Scottish independence, it would leave Cameron with a majority of 19 when excluding Scottish constituencies (and Sinn Fein, would be increased to 21 if the Tories hold Newark, as Mercer has been sitting as an independent).
I can't see the House of Commons passing any laws that relate to Scotland after a YES vote on independence, and so it also seems incomprehensible that MPs sitting for Scottish constituencies would vote on laws for a country they would be shortly leaving.
What could Cameron do with a ~6 month period where he doesn't need to rely on Lib Dem coalition support?
Mr. Me, the referendum on Europe would be wanted by his backbenchers.
Quote:
You need to be covered by a valid TV Licence if you watch or record TV as it's being broadcast. This includes the use of devices such as a computer, laptop, mobile phone or DVD/video recorder.
Endquote
I may not, for instance (as a non-licensee) watch PMQs live on my PC.
I don't think it's not allowed to have a TV in the house, but I can't imagine wanting one. Certainly half a dozen or so of my friends agree.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10808948/Geert-Wilders-Ukip-will-join-our-far-Right-bloc-in-the-EU.html
But Wiki says: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_licensing_in_the_United_Kingdom#When_a_TV_licence_is_required
Regardless, the TV licence fee does not have a long-term future in its current form, for all the reasons I've given passim. Their first stabs at proposing changes - for instance funding it from general taxation, a tax per house, or a subscription service - all have fundamental problems.