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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals
The big polling event of May 2014, exactly a year before general election, will be the publication by Lord Ashcroft of his latest mega sample polling of the marginals.
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I'll stick with Dr. Robert Waller's general rule: that if national polling conflicts with that for marginals, it's the former that is more likely to be accurate. Wasn't that also the case in 2010?
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-saxon-shore-east-and-south-east.html
Con 4/7 (Hills, Lad, PP)
Lab 11/4 (Betfair, Lad, PP)
UKIP 9/2 (Bet365, Lad)
LD 250/1 (Bet365)
Croydon Council
LAB Control 1/3
CON Control 3/1
NOC 12/1
Hammersmith & Fulham Council
CON Control 1/2
LAB Control 2/1
NOC 10/1
Stockport Council
NOC 1/6
LAB Control 6/1
LD Control 10/1
Other council priced up are:
Barnet
Merton
Redbridge
Trafford
Over time, there is one feature of the Wisdom trend that is irrefutable – Labour’s predicted share has pretty consistently declined from a high of 39% in May 2012, to pretty much where it stands now (33%). The Conservatives have flat-lined in the 29-32% range, which they will hope to break out of now that positive economic noises are being heard from many quarters.
http://www.icmresearch.com/media-centre/polls/icm-sunday-telegraph-wisdom-index-january-2014
And of the most recent:
Martin Boon, head of ICM Research, said the result represented the joint narrowest lead for Labour ever recorded in the Wisdom Index.
“Both the main parties are polling much lower than they would hope for,” he said.
“This different polling approach provides further evidence that, at last, the Tories are making in-roads into the Labour vote.”
However, the shift is due to a loss of support for Labour as the Conservatives remain stuck on 31 per cent, he said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10806655/Labour-lead-cut-to-one-point-as-Telegraph-opinion-poll-exposes-UKs-North-South-divide.html
One thing I noticed in the Telegraph reporting of this - the description 'Ed Miliband's Labour' - we know 'David Cameron's Conservatives' helps the Conservatives, I wonder if the reverse is true for Labour?
The marginals would seem to hinder the Conservatives. However, it's worth noting that UKIP are riding high, and that tide may well recede come the General Election.
So....my best guess is a Tory lead of not enough for a majority. Hung parliament and the current coalition continues.
IIRC the tories outperformed the Universal swing at the last election, presumably doing better in the marginals to do so. I suspect this shows 2 things. First, the tories are more vulnerable where they outperformed and second that these marginals are more volatile than the average.
The result of neither of these terribly surprising conclusions is that where there is a swing against the tories in the national polls they seem to be doing worse in these seats. What that actually tells us about the possible outcome of a GE I would be a lot less sure about. These seats will probably give us a slightly exaggerated result again whichever way the election goes. I do not accept that as a generality the tories have particular problems in these seats.
http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/motorsport/story/156493.html
Worth also noting that the circuit will be hard on tyres, which may hamper Ferrari and Williams (those teams had to make an extra stop in Bahrain compared to the drivers ahead of them).
Hastings & Rye: both PP and Shadsy have UKIP at 100/1
We cannot keep operating on the same basis as before, making predictions based on a country that might be about to split into two staying as one, and ignoring the rise of UKIP.
It'd be like ignoring pre-season testing and backing Vettel for the title (incidentally, there's an off-chance he will win it but I would be significantly surprised).
I'm sure if we pool our resources we can stop TSE feeling liverish....
On the Sunday Herald endorsement, Prof Tomkins tweeted the respective circulations of the Sunday Herald and Sunday Post, adding the tag "#gamechanger" - I suspect he was being sarcastic....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0
IMO seats that Labour might find more difficult than expected to win are as follows:
Thurrock, Waveney, Brighton Pavilion, Ipswich, Halesowen, Gloucester, Kingswood, Croydon Central, Worcester, Warwick&Leamington, B'ham Yardley, Ealing Central & Acton, Stevenage.
If they fail to win a majority next year it'll probably be because they've missed a fair number of those targets.
The Tories have to "win" 326 seats by one vote; not just finish above Labour. It's no good finishing above Labour if they finish below UKIP.
I'll get my coat ...
Aren't the polls quite clear that voters view the two very differently?
Edit - they could bleed 5 to Labour and gain 25 from the Lib Dems for example
It is a racing certainty that a Tory Majority will correlate to a > 6+% lead in the polls though. So the second sentence is misleading at best.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGViNUppLVFxalJKN21kQXlfNWo0d1E&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGRabkF6R2dtNkxqZnRHUHk0cE5fM0E&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
The trick in Ealing Central is to squeeze the Liberal vote until the pips squeak - they have a good shout. Many viscerally anti-Tory Red Liberals in that seat - lots of leftie professionals who fell for the Liberal Winning Here con last time only to see Labour run the Tories closer and the Tory come through the middle. It's a genuine three-way marginal - a rare fish indeed.
I accept your point, but it's still quite cool that York's last king was called Erik/Eric Bloodaxe.
"The problem with marginals polls (of which I've taken a few) is not with the sample size. That's often a red herring, as it doesn't matter how many people you talk to if they're not typical of all voters.
Therefore it's the 'sampling frame'. Assuming the poll is not random, and it won't be, the designers have to establish targets to set quotas to match with respondents.
This is harder if it is not a standard national sample, as they have to find what is typical across 38 marginals, not the well known national figures that are regularly used.
As a result, I would agree that marginals are harder to get accurate polling in.
(Of course, the sample size in individual marginals will also be very small, so it's useless for single seats within the group).
Overall, if the results of the poll across marginals suggests a different swing from that suggested by the whole weight of national polls, it's probable that it's the marginals poll that is wrong.
So I think you are probably right - though polling has certainly become more sophisticated since I last took one in 1992, so the Ashcroft people may have made a better fist of the sampling than we did in the old days!
By all means use me as an authority, though myself don't think I have much standing as one on polling nowadays ..."
After completing my look at the east and south east tomorrow, I'll turn to the west midlands next.
Ladbrokes have been 7/1 Thurrock for quite some time
Farage wont stand there, Tim Aker is the UKIP candidate. He is a local lad and also Head of Policy. He is on the Daily Politics quite often now
FWIW I make S Bas & E Thurrock as bet at 20/1
Check out the Michael Wood documentary on YouTube. It's very entertaining.
The expectation is that the private sector will create approximately 500K additional jobs this year. Really remarkable. If some of this bleeds into the seaside towns antifrank describes so well it may well make a difference.
The government will have an excellent story to tell on the economy at the next election. That might not matter if the Eds can persuade enough people that they are not sharing in the growth but I think the pressure will be on for Labour to have a persuasive story to tell and I have not heard it so far.
We have been through the longest fall in real wages on record. Given that and the strength of UKIP it is surprising that the tories are doing as well as they are. The challenge of putting together an election winning coalition remains daunting however.
"“The April numbers point to the economy growing by at least 0.8% again in the second quarter and, with confidence about the future rising again in April, there’s no end in sight for the current super-strong growth spell.
“The survey also brings news that private sector employment rose at a record pace in April, signalling 100,000 jobs being created each month."
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/b73ab147eb084d98bc3b90513addad13
I slept like a baby last night.
I woke up every half an hour crying.
I work in Manchester in an office full of either United or City fans.
The City fans are convinced they'll either lose up Villa or West Ham "because we're City, that's what we do"
To offer a professional view on marginal polls vs national polls: it's a common fallacy to think that having a big poll is more important than having a balanced poll. If you poll 200,000 pensioners you'll get a less accurate picture of the national scene than if you poll a 2,000 weighted sample. The reason marginal polls have historically been misleading is that they've usually not weighted for the local population. For instance, Broxtowe has a smallish immigrant population (6%), so a poll there should have 6% or so immigrants, if this is thought important for voting intention, and if it accidentally has 1% or 12% it'll change the figures. That's also why studying subsamples in national polls doesn't work.
That said, my understanding is that the Ashcroft polls do try to weight for constituency populations, don't they? If so, then they're genuinely just as important as Mike says. The factor that we're appearing to see is the absence of first-term incumbency bonus for most Conservative MPs, perhaps because of the general feeling of disillusion with politicians. I was surprised to see them actually doing worse than the national polls, though, and it'll be odd if that's repeated.
Patrick - Well, which one is it ! Have you changed your mind in 3 months ?
As for the Thurrock price shortening my guess is iSam has taken a chunk of 20-1 so Shadsy is probably rebalancing his book there.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-saxon-shore-east-and-south-east.html
"The Newark branch of UKIP meets tomorrow night to decide who they want to fight the Newark by-election.
Nominations for candidates close at midnight today. The national executive committee will then select who will go forward to appear before the Newark members.
There have been reports that East Midlands Euro MP Mr Roger Helmer, who defected from the Tories in 2012, was being lined up to fight the by-election.
Newark branch chairman Mr Peter Weston-Davies said today he was yet to be told who was on the list but said he would not be surprised to see Mr Helmer's name.
Mr Helmer was among four prospective MEPs who took part in a hustings at the Magnus School, Newark, last night. Issues raised included immigration, jobs, and if there should be a referendum over whether Britain should stay in or opt out of the European Union."
Former Blue Peter presenter Konnie Huq's sister Rupa is standing for Labour.
In the end two HOPES are batting against each other.
Raheem Kassam @RaheemJKassam May 4
@WikiGuido @AlexandralSwann Helmer is UKIP HQ’s candidate of choice. Grassroots prefer Bashir. Some want Lizzy Vaid to run.
Given Farage's comments on Sunday about fighting back over claims UKIP were a racist party, I think its odds on that Bashir or Vaid get the nod
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/01/ukip-should-choose-amjad-bashir
Good to see UKIP indulging in tokenistic nonsense. Soon you will be emulating PR man Cameron with his 'A-list'....
In 4 of the 8 wards comprising the Islington North constituency they've failed to put up any candidates. (Each ward elects 3 members). The wards in question are Finsbury Park, Hillrise, St George's, Tollington. They've also failed to put any up in Holloway which is in Islington South.
So we went back, my mother was back to saying how disgusting the Roma are, begging and being an annoyance and doing bad things in the street.
When we got back into the car, I said, she was being far too harsh on the Roma, and they were a persecuted race, that Hitler had tried to wipe them out.
Her response "I can understand why"*
*Not her exact words, this conversation was in Urdu.
If you're arguing that ANY polling, marginal or national, with a year still to run before the election has very limited value then I would entirely agree with you.
Incidentally, do we know when Catalan will be voting? If it gets that far...
On that note, I just checked Google News for word on Venice, but it doesn't seem to have (independence-wise) made the headlines since April.
Bashir was a candidate anyway, and is on tv/PEBs quite a lot, so its not as though he has been plucked from obscurity (relatively speaking)
I though Vaid was Farages PA, but she is darned pretty, so we'll let her off!
You could say that the ban on ex BNP members was not exactly libertarian, but when nasty insults are thrown maybe you have to be seen to do something that refutes them
Incidentally does anyone know what the current proposed threshold of the Mansion Tax is likely to be? I have read £2m as a suggestion but your comments about Ealing Central seems to suggest £1m (there really aren't very many houses in that are or conceivably will be worth £2m plus, even in the current market conditions). Of course if the tax is to actually raise any significant revenue, rather than just be a device to punish the very rich, the threshold needs to be £1m or perhaps even less.
I suggest you read the ukpollingreport comments on the PoliticsHome marginal poll in October 2009 . It forecast a Conservative overall majority of around 70 not very accurate but rather less than the national polls of the time and a better Lib Dem performance in 2010 than the national polls were forecasting at the time .
Neither the national nor the marginals polls were particularly accurate at forecasting the GE result 6 months out but the marginals poll was rather less inaccurate .
The massive growth of UKIP has caught that organisation on the hop as well as all the political elite.