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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Roger Helmer: Ukip’s first elected MP?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Roger Helmer: Ukip’s first elected MP?
According to the Sun the controversial Ukip MEP, Roger Helmer is being lined up to be the party’s candidate for the Newark by-election which takes place on June 5th two weeks after the May 22nd Euros.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/10808153/The-economic-sunshine-has-left-Miligoblin-groping-in-the-dark.html
A UKIP win here is strategically the best outcome for Labour and massively increases the probability of Miliband ending up in No 10 in 2015. Unless Labour think they have got a genuine chance I can see them underplaying this.
FWIW I think their vote will be squeezed anyway.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/
Is Boris the final bastion?
You'd expect that they're going to need at least 35% to win on what'll probably be a 45%+ turnout and quite possibly a 50%+ one (Eastleigh, the other 3-way by-election this parliament, had a 52.8% turnout and Newark was 71.4% at the GE). That's around 12500 votes needed to win and to do that, they'll need reasonably wide support across the demographic groups as there simply aren't enough pensioners (for example).
Is Helmer the right candidate to do that? Possibly, though the key battle now I feel is Lab/UKIP for the socially conservative C2/D/E voters, which Helmer might be well-placed to go for.
As for the UKIP candidate does it matter? There going to have to find non lunatic non big name candidates from somewhere. Let's have the Hamiltons running in adjacent seats for comedy value
That said, I agree Labour's vote will probably be squeezed. Do I agree that it's in Labour's strategic interest to hope for a UKIP win? Not necessarily. It depends on how the votes shift and how the parties react afterwards.
Mr. L, it'd be a short-term tactical advantage to Labour, but strategically it would be monumentally stupid.
If UKIP start winning MPs the whole centre of British politics in social and EU terms shifts to the right. It also means we could see rightwing tactical voting (not as straightforward as the anti-Conservative Lib Dems and Labour, but with WWC probably flitting to and from Labour and old fashioned rightwing Tories switching between purple and blue).
The Lib Dems might be down and out, and it's possible they'll be permanently replaced as one of the 'big' parties by UKIP. Would that be a better situation for Labour?
Mind you, given it'd be stupid in the long term and advantageous in the short-term recent history would suggest Labour would quite like a UKIP win (cf Scottish devolution).
This is not really about Labour at all is it? This is all about the Tories and their rupture from a conservative vote that they used to own exclusively. It's not good for them in exactly the same way that the arrival of the SDP/Alliance was for Labour.
PS Welcome back, Tapestry.
Even with Helmer as candidate (and to be honest who outside of those with a real interest in politics has heard of him) I still can't see this being anything but a Tory hold with a reduced majority.
antifrank said:
While you're waiting for a new thread, you can peruse my latest post, this time on Wales:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/how-red-our-are-valleys-wales-2015.html
@antifrank
Thank you for that - currently living here, I was interested in your analysis, but did not find an answer to the question you posed, "how red are our valleys?"
The simple answer is that they will stay red because they are the home of benefitland. The main reasons why their ancestors came to the valleys over about 150 years ago - coal and iron ore - have gone and that employment has not been replaced. Indeed other manufacturing industries have also closed down. As the place has been greened over - there is fierce resistance to opening any new coal mines. The Welsh Government tends to throw money at this area - almost without thinking.
As you say, Plaid is left wing and so is fishing in the same pool (except for coastal west Wales) and is bereft of ideas excepting forcing more Welshness on a mainly unwilling population. However, it is noticeable that a lot of the better paid public sector jobs require fluency in Welsh (even though it spoken by only 23% of the population).
You say, "Wales, of course, has devolved government. This is, as it has been since its inception, Labour controlled. It is responsible for, among other things, education, health and the environment, so many of the subjects that are the subject of political debate for the Westminster election in England are of less pressing importance in Wales." Here I would disagree with you as there is much public anger about cuts in health services which results in poorer care and longer waiting lists and about the disgraceful performance in education from primary school to university. This could well have an impact outside the Valleys.
Ceredigion should stay Liberal as Mark Williams is a good MP; Brecon will probably stay Liberal as Roger Williams is a well-known farmer but will be 67 if he stands again. Montgomery should stay Conservative as Glyn Davies is a local man and has done well. Also it elected a Conservative AM in 2011, Russell George, who has promoted and won infrastructure improvements.
Also, when looking at Wales, it should be remembered that places as politically different as Ceredigion, Ynys Mon and Pembrokeshire have lots of Independents on their Councils.
Millions of households are missing out on the £50 cut to their energy bills promised by David Cameron because their supplier has not passed it on.
Four of the Big Six power firms have failed to pass on the full saving from the reduction in green levies announced last year, latest figures show.
E.ON, EDF, npower and Scottish Power have offered 3.7million of their customers just £12 off. However, British Gas and SSE gave their customers the full saving.
Critics said the failure to pass on the full sum hands a £140million windfall to the energy giants, which had fought hard for a drop in green levies.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2620282/Four-Big-Six-power-firms-fail-pass-50-green-tax-cut-EDF-E-ON-nPower-Scottish-Power-offer-just-12-bills-following-cut-green-levies.html#ixzz30pHQzDTy
So how would EdM fix energy prices?
And this is where the choice of UKIP's candidate could really stir up some added cross party tactically voting. Diane James was a very good choice for UKIP in Eastleigh, but would such a high profile and decisive figure like Helmer work as well for them in a seat where they will be trying to effectively squeeze that substantial Labour/Libdem vote in this Conservative seat? I am not so sure he would, its worth remembering what happened to Farage when he tried to take on Bercow at the last GE.
Firstly, as a heavyweight in their own terms, it largely neutralised the criticism of Farage not standing. It's unlikely that Farage would have done better than Helmer unless the latter blunders badly in the spotlight.
On the other hand, Helmer is seventy and even if he were to win, that factor would limit any ability to act as an alternative leader were he to win - prior to the election at least.
More like Farage sending a rival on a suicide mission.
However, if UKIP does well in Newark, I would argue that it is going to be down to "the reluctant Lefties" - those who vote Labour with no great enthusiasm and out of exasperation with a sitting Tory Govt. The reluctant Lefties didn't see good reason to vote Labour in 2010 - Gordon Brown again? No thanks.... They are largely skeptical of greater state control - because they don't believe it works. They are reluctant to vote for Ed Miliband, both for the (absence of ) policies and (the absence of) the man. Yet they aren't happy with their lot. They want Govt. to "do something" - a something Govt. can't deliver any more than these disgruntled voters can define. The scales have fallen from their eyes with the LibDems - as part of the Coalition Govt., they are part of the problem in not delivering "something".
And they now have a very low opinion of politicians as a class. They are "all the same" in that none of them are delivering the fabled "something".
They have no great attraction to UKIP, which may in certain areas be anathema to the reluctant Lefties. But as long as they aren't going to form a Govt. in Westminster, they can either sit this one out - or even vote for them, knowing it is a poke in the eye to the Tories, gives a cold-shoulder to the LibDems and tells Labour to pull its socks up and offer a reason to vote for them - a reason totally lacking with a year to go to the General Election.
If Labour lets these "reluctant Lefties" wander off at Newark, then they can wave goodbye to a raft of marginals.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/greenpolitics/planning/10802390/Number-of-new-housing-estates-jumps-by-a-quarter-since-planning-reforms.html
The number of large scale housing estates being pushed through by developers across England has soared over the past two years, according to the most extensive analysis ever of the Coalition’s relaxation of planning laws.
The figures are the most detailed and authoritative analysis yet that the Government’s relaxation of the planning rulebook has seen a significant rise in building across the country.
As has been the case for the last four years GE 2015 has Hung Parliament written all over it. Should that turn out to be the case it will essentially be a plague on both your parties election.
Con 1.42/1.59
Lab 3/4.44
UKIP 3.5/9.2
LD 1.01/-
If Mr Helmer is re-elected as an MEP, will he have to stand down in order to stand in Newark?
The Newark Tories have known for around a year they were going into the GE2015 with a new candidate and said candidate has been in place for some time. Presumably he has been getting a fair degree of positive coverage in the local and regional media. He will already know the constituency and presumably on the ground the local Tory association will know where it is strong and where it is weak.
We must not underestimate the ability of Roger Helmer to share one of his "pearls of wisdom" with the media. He does not strike me as a Diane James or anything like her.
The polls are all over the place. Indeed the pogo pollsters own polls are all over the place. Frankly we none of us have a clue what the papers will be saying 3 weeks today. Most assume they will be hailing a UKIP victory. A lot can happen between now and then.
Farage would have been shorter odds than that.
He nearly stood down as a Tory MEP some years ago but wanted to ensure that a like-minded person replaced him and Tory HQ had other ideas (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Helmer for details), so he decided to stay on, and switched to UKIP. He is head of their East Midlands list so will have some name recognition in Newark betyond that of a random MEP. A possible attack will be the double-hatting, but presumably he'll promise to stand down from the EP if elected to Westminster.
Cardiff north is a super marginal ( about 100 I think ). It is actually fairly prosperous but I suspect is populated by a lot of better paid public sector workers (eg BBC Wales types). Used to be more Tory 20 years ago, than it was in 2010 without being "safe".
Cardiff Central is a real eclectic mix ( for Wales ) of traditional working class, immigrants, students ( loads and loads of them) and some seriously nice bits which are a bit Guardianista. It had just about the highest vote for AV in Wales ( high forties I think). The local Lib MP voted, I recall, against tuition fees ( political suicide for her given all those student votes if she hadn't). Quite a few Tory votes still to squeeze too. Labour won the the Assembly by a wafer thin margin of about 100 and have troops on the ground, (or bus them in from the Valleys) so should win, but it's not a total gimme if the Libs can persuade some Tories to vote tactically.
The impact on UKIP would be interesting too. It might collapse entirely, as the right and left supporters of it flock back to their 'natural' homes as the 2015 election could determine who negotiates the separation of the UK, a critical and one-off event.
I still believe the local Tory party took an unnecessary risk choosing Jenrick but they will probably get away with it.
Tories are going to have to put up someone with some star power.Otherwise,they may end up losing this.
http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/05/ukip-derangement-disorder-time-for-a-second-opinion.html.
"Britain is in the grip of an epidemic – a feverish hysteria called UDD or UKIP Derangement Disorder. The symptoms are for the most part psychological, but the physical signs include swivelling eyes, reddened extremities and drooling.
At this point I should make clear that UDD isn’t a condition suffered by persons who may be attracted to UKIP, but by its most vociferous detractors.
Yes, UKIP does have its own problem with loonies and fruitcakes. This is hardly surprising – it is an anti-establishment populist party and that will draw people in for many reasons, good and bad."
Reloading seems to take a little while, but I've not had any problems posting messages or signing in/out.
I wonder how many long time labour supporters have had very poor experiences with health and education in the rotten principality in recent times, and realised that in tory England things are at least not worse than labour Wales, and in many cases better.
I wonder how many people really want to vote for the same once in a blue moon bin collections, red princes and council taxes in excess of some of England's most affluent areas.
Is there really the hatred of toryism here that some on the left would have us believe? ten years ago I would have said undoubtedly yes. Now I'm not so sure.
I reckon the tories could do a bit better in Wales than people think.
Isn't Roger Helmer's very recent loyalties to the Conservative Party going to be something which may encourage a number of more tribal Labour voters not to back him, should he stand?
There may also be the point that he defected and did not seek immediate public consent for his change of party, which could I imagine annoy some Conservative voters too.
I am now off to my local Bank Holiday festival, where I will be boxing for 30 minutes in public! I should emphasise this is not bare knuckle boxing, but the gloves and pads type as I am helping to advertise our local circuit training group!!
I feel the need to point out that bare knuckle boxing is actually safer than the modern variety (a rare example of something becoming more dangerous as time goes by). The limit on how hard you can hit someone was determined by the desire not to break your own hand. Padded gloves protect your hand, enabling you to hit harder, but don't protect your adversary.
On the other hand, modern boxing is probably safer than doing it was some varieties of cestus: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cestus
"A cestus is an ancient battle glove, sometimes used in pankration. They were worn as are today's boxing gloves, but were made with leather strips and sometimes filled with iron plates or fitted with blades or spikes, and used as weapons."
http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/nigel-farage-is-fracker-windfarms-kill.html
It's banned in France and should be banned in England too where population is much denser.
He would not entice the former Labour voters, but would be a grab for Tory backwoodsmen. There are a fair bunch of these in the more rural parts of the East Midlands.
What the f**k are you talking about? I didn't mention child abuse. I said that if the peace process is to have any chance then difficult decisions on both sides are needed when it comes to ex-terrorists. Gerry Adams as you say was one such and as the GFA didn't provide for amnesties of yet-to-be-caught terrorists just existing jailed ones then he didn't have anywhere to go.
You meanwhile? "On the ground" - LOL. God knows what you and @Alanbrooke want from your position of informed localness.
Good luck to you both and to the province.
These days it may be safer for all parties to stick with a local option,more authentic,more credible.
But there are still large numbers of oil wells in the area and a big production facility at Welton just north of Lincoln.
A lot of oil and gas people live in the constituency.
http://rogerhelmermep.wordpress.com/2012/09/17/jonathan-bullock-joins-ukip/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-27280228
Seriously, what the #### is wrong with the justice system in this country? There's no liberalism for innocent people's private web and phone behaviour, but plenty to go round for convicted hardened criminals.
Incidentally, hat-tip to antifrank for succeeding in providing a series of interesting, balanced assessments of party politics in Britain even though he dislikes party politics and (I think) mostly lives in Hungary. As with andrea in Italy, perhaps the detachment lent by 1000 miles helps!
They always seem a strange sight in the UK.
As an aside, the Wytch farm oilwells seem really well disguised; you'd hardly know they were there in some cases. ?BP? did a really good job setting them up.
Hungary is my holiday home, which I visit about once every six weeks. I'll next be going in a couple of weeks.
It's the only vote in my life that I would cast differently now if given the chance to go back in time and do so. I can't even plead the benefits of hindsight as I knew well enough back then that Helmer holds views which I find repugnant. My pencil hovered for a while - but in the end my wish to see my vote fall into the pro-Cameron column, a year before the GE, won out over my strong dislike of Helmer's personal politics.
You need to google search "Age and class divide opens up in British electorate" to get the FT piece for free.
The figures show that while Labour has increased its support among certain groups since it lost the 2010 election, it has made no headway at all among others.
Labour has lost 8 percentage points among over-65s since 2010, for example, a group the Conservatives have targeted with tailor-made policies, such as ringfencing pensioner benefits and giving them more control over their pension pots.
The Tories have held their support among the elderly, and even won voters away from Labour, something that will worry opposition strategists, given that older people are more likely to vote.
Labour has surged, however, among younger voters, fuelled largely by the collapse of support for the Liberal Democrats among this group. The Lib Dems have lost nearly a fifth of their supporters aged between 18 and 24 following the party’s U-turn on tuition fees, while backing for Labour has risen by 16 points among the young.
The overall figures show the Tories on 34 points, unchanged since last month, while Labour has dropped one point to 36 per cent, giving further evidence that the gap between the two has closed since the beginning of the year.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/58f03364-d208-11e3-8b5b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz30pfUZKvf
:tromso-watch:
Mr. Dave, thou art a bloody fool.
The findings strengthen the conclusion that the surging anti-EU party is not so much the party of “Tories in exile” as the party representing the “left behind” – voters who are poor, poorly educated and feel alienated from the political mainstream.
Edit - and in answer to your question it is now operated by Perenco.