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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The April PB polling average: UKIP soar, coalition parties

SystemSystem Posts: 11,704
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The April PB polling average: UKIP soar, coalition parties down, LAB steady

With only a few weeks to go to the last big set of elections before the 2015 general election, April’s PB polling average shows the extent to which UKIP is once again timing a polling surge.  The figures are with changes on March LAB 36.4 (-0.1), CON 31.3 (-1.3), Ukip 14.6 (+2.7), LD 9.1 (-1.6)

Read the full story here


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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2014
    Reminder about this evening's PB gathering. It is at Dirty Dicks (opposite Liverpool Street station in London) and will start at 6.30pm. We are on the first floor tight at the back. Looking forward to seeing as many PBers as possible.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FPT:

    The current UKPR polling average is Lab 36%, Con 32%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, almost the same as the PollingObservatory numbers TSE linked to earlier. There can't be much doubt this is the true situation at present.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    The bubble will burst from June onwards...
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Who is going tonight? And what time does the bash go on to?
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    GIN1138 said:

    The bubble will burst from June onwards...

    Maybe, but we said that last year with the locals and they dropped a bit but then grew in strength steadily.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    isam said:

    Who is going tonight? And what time does the bash go on to?

    I'm saving myself for the Ilkley booze up in July
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Blue_rog said:

    isam said:

    Who is going tonight? And what time does the bash go on to?

    I'm saving myself for the Ilkley booze up in July
    ALLEZ WIGGO !
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    I fear, because they really don't deserve it, that the Lib Dems are once again going to take a hell of a beating.

    The beating may be so severe that the stability of the Coalition is threatened although I suspect that like Brown and Macawber the Lib Dems will want to hold on to the last minute in the hope that something turns up.

    A lost deposit in the by election in June is hardly likely to improve the mood either.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2014
    FPT
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    This is the issue:

    Official figures show that £600m of legal aid went on lawyers for around 128,000 defendants in the Crown Court in 2012-13

    Just 20 VHCCs ["Very High Cost Cases"] soaked up a tenth of all that spending.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27247592

    As always when these things are discussed, the focus is on the wrong aspect. It shouldn't be on who is paying, it should be on why the cases are so mind-blowingly expensive in the first place.

    One of the oldest principles of the common law is equality of arms between the parties in a case. The reality is that "VHCCs" cost a lot of money because the investigating agencies and prosecuting authorities spend a lot of money on them. If the Crown has spent £5m on bringing a case to trial, it is inequitable for the state to demand a threadbare defence where the liberty of the subject is at stake. As His Honour Judge Leonard QC pointed out yesterday, would the Crown really be prepared to instruct advocates of the quality that the government says should do the defence work? There are many sensible ways of reducing the cost, length and complexity of criminal cases. The trial of Adebolajo and Adebowale at the Central Criminal Court last year should have been concluded in a day for example. The Lord Chancellor's reforms however are barbarous and and unjust, as yesterday's judgment demonstrates.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,461
    Hmm I'd hardly call going up 2.7 soaring.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    MikeSmithson said:

    Reminder about this evening's PB gathering. It is at Dirty Dicks (opposite Liverpool Street station in London) and will start at 6.30pm. We are on the first floor tight at the back. Looking forward to seeing as many PBers as possible.

    Is this a description of the attendees' expected state of inebriation or of the compactness of the accommodation provided for this function?

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2014
    ''What upsets me about these ultra white suburbs is that they have few immigrants yet are obsessed by immigration. ''

    FPT.

    Touch of the Diane Abbotts from bobafett there. Imagine his reaction if someone had referred to Brixton as an 'ultra black suburb' or Southall as an 'ultra brown suburb'

    And this is another reason for the rise of UKIP. A perception exists that it is quite acceptable to be racist to white people. I'm not saying the perception is true. But it definitely exists.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Newark - UKIP are now 4/1 with Ladbrokes. I couldn't resist and bet £25 on them:

    https://m.ladbrokes.com/#!event_details?id=218747871
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I'd hardly call going up 2.7 soaring.

    It's a 22% increase in a month

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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I'd hardly call going up 2.7 soaring.

    Given that this is an average then you'd expect any changes to be much smaller. Ukip is soaring. Get used to it.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,072
    edited May 2014
    Off-topic:

    A failry upbeat article on BAE and Scottish shipbuilding:
    http://www.theengineer.co.uk/whats-the-future-for-british-warship-construction/1018501.article

    In particular, I had not heard of the 'schedule based working' incentive scheme before: if you reach production targets, you get extra time off.

    Employers and unions working together for mutual advantage. Superb.

    Edit: sadly, I won't be able to make it to DD's tonight. I hope everyone enjoys themselves.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    JosiasJessop said:

    Off-topic:

    A failry upbeat article on BAE and Scottish shipbuilding:
    http://www.theengineer.co.uk/whats-the-future-for-british-warship-construction/1018501.article

    In particular, I had not heard of the 'schedule based working' incentive scheme before: if you reach production targets, you get extra time off.

    Employers and unions working together for mutual advantage. Superb.

    Edit: sadly, I won't be able to make it to DD's tonight. I hope everyone enjoys themselves.

    Zero mention of Independence.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    I used to enjoy attending PB.com functions, then held at the National Liberal Club, until they were attended by a couple of individuals I seriously dislike and who were difficult to avoid in small gatherings such as these.
    Hopefully they will both be absent from the planned get together at Ilkley.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    peter_from_putney said:

    I used to enjoy attending PB.com functions, then held at the National Liberal Club, until they were attended by a couple of individuals I seriously dislike and who were difficult to avoid in small gatherings such as these.
    Hopefully they will both be absent from the planned get together at Ilkley.

    National Liberal Club? I didn't realise the gatherings used to be as grand as that.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    taffys said:

    ''What upsets me about these ultra white suburbs is that they have few immigrants yet are obsessed by immigration. ''

    FPT.

    Touch of the Diane Abbotts from bobafett there. Imagine his reaction if someone had referred to Brixton as an 'ultra black suburb' or Southall as an 'ultra brown suburb'

    And this is another reason for the rise of UKIP. A perception exists that it is quite acceptable to be racist to white people. I'm not saying the perception is true. But it definitely exists.

    It was also an unnecessary conflation of nationality with race.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    As David implies, the interesting question is whether UKIP are timing their surge well for the forthcoming Euros, or whether instead it's the forthcoming Euros which are behind the surge.

    They are certainly getting a lot of publicity. Nick Clegg of course helped them in this respect by proposing the debates with Farage. No doubt the LibDems are wondering if that was entirely wise.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Andy - we're a posh lot you know when we choose to be. Hopefully you will be able to join us at the Box Tree in Ilkley.

    ( ........ only joking!)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    Good afternoon, everyone.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If UKIP win the Euros easily it'll give them fantastic momentum for Newark 10 days later. The bookies don't seem to be taking that into account IMO.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    I see Farage is on QT next week.... that'll be a repeat then?
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    AndyJS said:

    If UKIP win the Euros easily it'll give them fantastic momentum for Newark 10 days later. The bookies don't seem to be taking that into account IMO.

    Very good point ...... makes that 4/1 punt of yours look like good value.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    Who is adamant that Cameron would renege on the commitment?

    On this thread, Bobafett and anotherDave.

    On any random ConHome or Telegraph comments thread, a whole stream of UKIP nutters, usually in comments laced with words like 'lying' and 'LibLabCon'.

    You can see why: if they do actually admit the truth that Cameron is neither lying nor untrustworthy, and that therefore there would be a referendum under Cameron, it completely blows their world-view out of the water.
    This isn't a dichotomous situation though. I think Cameron would probably offer a referendum with a majority, but it's not cast-iron. There are always events that could emerge that change it. There are also the possibilities of (a) the Tories not getting a majority and (b) the Tories getting a majority and changing leader.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    Mr. Scrapheap, I wonder if Unite Against Fascism (UAF) will burn a Farage effigy.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As David implies, the interesting question is whether UKIP are timing their surge well for the forthcoming Euros, or whether instead it's the forthcoming Euros which are behind the surge.

    They are certainly getting a lot of publicity. Nick Clegg of course helped them in this respect by proposing the debates with Farage. No doubt the LibDems are wondering if that was entirely wise.

    But what about the unanimous agreement that they were fishing in different pools of voters, so it was certainly beneficial for both...
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    peter_from_putney said:

    I used to enjoy attending PB.com functions, then held at the National Liberal Club, until they were attended by a couple of individuals I seriously dislike and who were difficult to avoid in small gatherings such as these.
    Hopefully they will both be absent from the planned get together at Ilkley.

    Didn't you organise a PBC Barbeque at the National Liberal Club some years ago?

    For all those attending Dirty Dicks tonight, enjoy the fun, and get home safely (even if it is via a short trip to the south coast) ; )
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    peter_from_putney said:

    AndyJS said:

    If UKIP win the Euros easily it'll give them fantastic momentum for Newark 10 days later. The bookies don't seem to be taking that into account IMO.

    Very good point ...... makes that 4/1 punt of yours look like good value.
    Just put another £25 on them. 38% in the polls for the Euros and then Newark 10 days later? Yes please.
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    NextNext Posts: 826
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    Who is adamant that Cameron would renege on the commitment?

    On this thread, Bobafett and anotherDave.

    On any random ConHome or Telegraph comments thread, a whole stream of UKIP nutters, usually in comments laced with words like 'lying' and 'LibLabCon'.

    You can see why: if they do actually admit the truth that Cameron is neither lying nor untrustworthy, and that therefore there would be a referendum under Cameron, it completely blows their world-view out of the water.
    This isn't a dichotomous situation though. I think Cameron would probably offer a referendum with a majority, but it's not cast-iron. There are always events that could emerge that change it. There are also the possibilities of (a) the Tories not getting a majority and (b) the Tories getting a majority and changing leader.
    But Cameron is still a million times more likely to offer the referendum than Farage being in a position to do so.

    So the "value bet" is to vote Conservative.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    I see Farage is on QT next week.... that'll be a repeat then?

    5th time UKIP have been represented this year, 1st time for Farage


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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2014
    I think Cameron would probably offer a referendum with a majority, but it's not cast-iron.

    LOL Your other choice being ed miliband....

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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    SimonStClare said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    I used to enjoy attending PB.com functions, then held at the National Liberal Club, until they were attended by a couple of individuals I seriously dislike and who were difficult to avoid in small gatherings such as these.
    Hopefully they will both be absent from the planned get together at Ilkley.

    Didn't you organise a PBC Barbeque at the National Liberal Club some years ago?

    For all those attending Dirty Dicks tonight, enjoy the fun, and get home safely (even if it is via a short trip the the south coast) ; )
    You're confusing me with another, now rarely heard from poster ...... that's a quid you owe the PB.com social fund.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    edited May 2014
    Next said:

    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    Who is adamant that Cameron would renege on the commitment?

    On this thread, Bobafett and anotherDave.

    On any random ConHome or Telegraph comments thread, a whole stream of UKIP nutters, usually in comments laced with words like 'lying' and 'LibLabCon'.

    You can see why: if they do actually admit the truth that Cameron is neither lying nor untrustworthy, and that therefore there would be a referendum under Cameron, it completely blows their world-view out of the water.
    This isn't a dichotomous situation though. I think Cameron would probably offer a referendum with a majority, but it's not cast-iron. There are always events that could emerge that change it. There are also the possibilities of (a) the Tories not getting a majority and (b) the Tories getting a majority and changing leader.
    But Cameron is still a million times more likely to offer the referendum than Farage being in a position to do so.

    So the "value bet" is to vote Conservative.
    He could offer a referendum, OUT could win, and as a PM with a majority still allow the free movement of people from the EU/open borders

    So why not turn the pressure up until we get a PM with an immigration policy that even slightly resembles UKIPs?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    But Cameron is still a million times more likely to offer the referendum than Farage being in a position to do so.

    Don;t you realise its only six years until UKIP might possibly who knows against all the oddsbe the official opposition?

    Imagine if they ONLY NARROWLY LOST in 2020!! They might be on course to form a government in 2025!!!

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    FPT:
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Tomkins latest thoughts on the case for the Union:

    http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/05/02/two-positive-cases/

    Have not laughed so much in weeks, Tomkins is a nutjob
    Your usual standard of incisive forensic analysis!
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    And what time does the bash go on to?

    When JohnO is there the partying goes on until you wake up at a random seaside resort the next morning.


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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Have UKIP selected their Newark candidate yet?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Quincel said:

    Have UKIP selected their Newark candidate yet?

    No.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Quincel said:

    Have UKIP selected their Newark candidate yet?

    Maybe Farage is doing the double bluff??!

    Hoovering up the 9/2 and 4/1 before announcing a change of mind!
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    AndyJS said:

    Quincel said:

    Have UKIP selected their Newark candidate yet?

    No.
    Thought not. They should get a move on, if they aren't campaigning properly until May 23rd they won't get the performance they want. They need at least a 2nd place.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Socrates said:

    This isn't a dichotomous situation though. I think Cameron would probably offer a referendum with a majority, but it's not cast-iron. There are always events that could emerge that change it. There are also the possibilities of (a) the Tories not getting a majority and (b) the Tories getting a majority and changing leader.

    'Events' like a war, maybe, but it's as cast iron as anything in politics ever can be. Of course, if there's no majority, all bets are off, but your point (b) is not right: any new leader would absolutely have to honour the commitment, both to get elected as leader and to retain the support of Conservative MPs thereafter.
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    NextNext Posts: 826
    isam said:

    Next said:

    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    Who is adamant that Cameron would renege on the commitment?

    On this thread, Bobafett and anotherDave.

    On any random ConHome or Telegraph comments thread, a whole stream of UKIP nutters, usually in comments laced with words like 'lying' and 'LibLabCon'.

    You can see why: if they do actually admit the truth that Cameron is neither lying nor untrustworthy, and that therefore there would be a referendum under Cameron, it completely blows their world-view out of the water.
    This isn't a dichotomous situation though. I think Cameron would probably offer a referendum with a majority, but it's not cast-iron. There are always events that could emerge that change it. There are also the possibilities of (a) the Tories not getting a majority and (b) the Tories getting a majority and changing leader.
    But Cameron is still a million times more likely to offer the referendum than Farage being in a position to do so.

    So the "value bet" is to vote Conservative.
    He could offer a referendum, OUT could win, and as a PM with a majority still allow the free movement of people from the EU/open borders
    IF that happens, then that will be the point to vote for UKAIP (UK Anti-Immigration party). But you will have already achieved a very large step (that you would not have otherwise made) being out of the EU.

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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    peter_from_putney said:

    SimonStClare said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    I used to enjoy attending PB.com functions, then held at the National Liberal Club, until they were attended by a couple of individuals I seriously dislike and who were difficult to avoid in small gatherings such as these.
    Hopefully they will both be absent from the planned get together at Ilkley.

    Didn't you organise a PBC Barbeque at the National Liberal Club some years ago?

    For all those attending Dirty Dicks tonight, enjoy the fun, and get home safely (even if it is via a short trip the the south coast) ; )
    You're confusing me with another, now rarely heard from poster ...... that's a quid you owe the PB.com social fund.

    Oops – I do remember when mixing up PtheP and PfP incurred a small fine, pls accept my apology instead. ; )
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    He could offer a referendum, OUT could win, and as a PM with a majority still allow the free movement of people from the EU/open borders.

    Take a breath and read that sentence again isam. Do you really think such a outcome would be at all possible, even if the tory party were stuffed full of fromage eating europhiles?? (which it certainly is not).
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    UKIPs challenge is to maintain teen polling in the aftermath of the honey pot of Eurolections and in the darkness of a Westminster summer recess. If the Euro vote win (which I expect) is a protest from a disillusioned nation, the main two will have to respond. Will the protest survive this? In that lies the keys to number ten.

    Sadly I won't be able to make tonight, I hope to make the next one though as Liverpool Street makes it easy to get safely home to the nations second city (if we were meeting in the 1100s)
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    shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    I'll be there tonight.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeSmithson said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I'd hardly call going up 2.7 soaring.

    Given that this is an average then you'd expect any changes to be much smaller. Ukip is soaring. Get used to it.

    They used to say that about Icarus too
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2014
    Good Lord, a Polly piece which isn't entirely bonkers:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/02/scrap-inheritance-tax-inequality-wealth-income?CMP=twt_fd

    Of course, what she hasn't considered is the problem of the same income being taxed twice, and she's out with the fairies when she says "At a stroke all the wheezes, cheats and exemptions would be swept away", but, still...
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Charles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I'd hardly call going up 2.7 soaring.

    Given that this is an average then you'd expect any changes to be much smaller. Ukip is soaring. Get used to it.

    They used to say that about Icarus too
    Cam is Daedelus
    Farage is Icarus

    The electorate are the Sun
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Given that Con are a party with a 100% europhile leadership and a eurosceptic base it makes much more sense for Ukip to attempt a reverse takeover.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What we need is a constituency poll for Newark. Maybe Ashcroft will oblige.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    Have UKIP selected their Newark candidate yet?

    Maybe Farage is doing the double bluff??!

    Hoovering up the 9/2 and 4/1 before announcing a change of mind!
    For anyone interested, the 9/2 against UKIP winning Newark is currently available from those nice people at Bet365.

    BTW, apropos absolutely nothing at all, those nice people at Hills are offering 6/4 against Big Sam NOT being WHU manager on the first day of the 2014/15 season. Looks like very fair value to me but as ever DYOR.

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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Good Lord, a Polly piece which isn't entirely bonkers:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/02/scrap-inheritance-tax-inequality-wealth-income?CMP=twt_fd

    Of course, what she hasn't considered is the problem of the same income being taxed twice, and she's out with the fairies when she says "At a stroke all the wheezes, cheats and exemptions would be swept away", but, still...

    You can smell the grease on her squeeze the pips machine. How can we screw the wealthy the most effectively? How can we ensure that vast fortunes are given To the trusty hands of a Labour chancellor? Who knows what great works we can do with everyone else's money, what fantastical monuments to the achievements of the Peoples Party, a Tony Blair Hall in every town!

    Greedy old Tuscan moo.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    Who is adamant that Cameron would renege on the commitment?

    On this thread, Bobafett and anotherDave.

    On any random ConHome or Telegraph comments thread, a whole stream of UKIP nutters, usually in comments laced with words like 'lying' and 'LibLabCon'.

    You can see why: if they do actually admit the truth that Cameron is neither lying nor untrustworthy, and that therefore there would be a referendum under Cameron, it completely blows their world-view out of the water.
    The Conservatives have made a number of pledges for their EU Parliament campaign.

    http://www.conservatives.com/europe

    Several are clearly dishonest.

    1. "To keep the cost of Europe down"

    Britain's financial contribution to the EU is increasing.

    4. "Our country to keep control of our own borders."

    We have open door immigration with the EU.

    6. "To take back control of criminal justice"

    The Conservatives opted out of of Home and Justice Affairs, but intend to opt in again after the EU Elections. The vote is scheduled for July 22nd.

    7. "An in-out referendum on whether to stay in the EU"

    Their referendum pledge is one I don't believe, and you do, but its one item in a list that contains lies.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Good Lord, a Polly piece which isn't entirely bonkers:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/02/scrap-inheritance-tax-inequality-wealth-income?CMP=twt_fd

    Of course, what she hasn't considered is the problem of the same income being taxed twice, and she's out with the fairies when she says "At a stroke all the wheezes, cheats and exemptions would be swept away", but, still...

    As I noted on that thread, it takes a special kind of genius to advocate taxing birthday presents.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    anotherDave said:

    The Conservatives have made a number of pledges for their EU Parliament campaign.

    http://www.conservatives.com/europe

    Several are clearly dishonest.

    1. "To keep the cost of Europe down"

    Britain's financial contribution to the EU is increasing.

    4. "Our country to keep control of our own borders."

    We have open door immigration with the EU.

    6. "To take back control of criminal justice"

    The Conservatives opted out of of Home and Justice Affairs, but intend to opt in again after the EU Elections. The vote is scheduled for July 22nd.

    Their referendum pledge is one I don't believe, and you do, but its one item in a list that contains lies.

    Well, you are talking nonsense - to take just the first, 'keeping costs down' means exactly what it says. Keeping costs down doesn't necessarily mean reducing them, does it? It means keeping them lower than they would have been if you'd done nothing.

    Still, feel free to disbelieve his pledge. You are wrong, and I am right. I just want to find someone prepared to back up their disbelief with cash. Oddly, for all the people who claim Cameron can't be trusted, I can't find anyone to take the bet that he can't. Any sum up to £1000, and potentially more, is on offer.

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,368
    peter_from_putney said:

    SimonStClare said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    I used to enjoy attending PB.com functions, then held at the National Liberal Club, until they were attended by a couple of individuals I seriously dislike and who were difficult to avoid in small gatherings such as these.
    Hopefully they will both be absent from the planned get together at Ilkley.

    Didn't you organise a PBC Barbeque at the National Liberal Club some years ago?

    For all those attending Dirty Dicks tonight, enjoy the fun, and get home safely (even if it is via a short trip the the south coast) ; )
    You're confusing me with another, now rarely heard from poster ...... that's a quid you owe the PB.com social fund.
    I proposed and I think organised the first NLC event (were there several?), though I'm hazy about it now - my uncle was a member (before he drifted off to UKIP) and I launched my first book there too. I hope I wasn't one of the people PfP was avoiding... Apologies that I can't make it tonight.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    anotherDave said:

    The Conservatives have made a number of pledges for their EU Parliament campaign.

    http://www.conservatives.com/europe

    Several are clearly dishonest.

    1. "To keep the cost of Europe down"

    Britain's financial contribution to the EU is increasing.

    4. "Our country to keep control of our own borders."

    We have open door immigration with the EU.

    6. "To take back control of criminal justice"

    The Conservatives opted out of of Home and Justice Affairs, but intend to opt in again after the EU Elections. The vote is scheduled for July 22nd.

    Their referendum pledge is one I don't believe, and you do, but its one item in a list that contains lies.

    Well, you are talking nonsense - to take just the first, 'keeping costs down' means exactly what it says. Keeping costs down doesn't necessarily mean reducing them, does it? It means keeping them lower than they would have been if you'd done nothing.

    Still, feel free to disbelieve his pledge. You are wrong, and I am right. I just want to find someone prepared to back up their disbelief with cash. Oddly, for all the people who claim Cameron can't be trusted, I can't find anyone to take the bet that he can't. Any sum up to £1000, and potentially more, is on offer.

    Surely if someone said they were keeping the cost of your petrol down, but the price increased, you'd find that an odd statement for them to make? Keeping the cost down strongly implies that the cost is going down, even if it doesn't technically require it.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    antifrank said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Good Lord, a Polly piece which isn't entirely bonkers:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/02/scrap-inheritance-tax-inequality-wealth-income?CMP=twt_fd

    Of course, what she hasn't considered is the problem of the same income being taxed twice, and she's out with the fairies when she says "At a stroke all the wheezes, cheats and exemptions would be swept away", but, still...

    As I noted on that thread, it takes a special kind of genius to advocate taxing birthday presents.
    Particularly one who writes for the tax dodging Guardian Media Group.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    antifrank said:

    As I noted on that thread, it takes a special kind of genius to advocate taxing birthday presents.

    True, but I am surprised that the left in general don't advocate changing inheritance tax so that it is charged as income of the recipient, perhaps after an allowance of a few thousand. It's certainly an arguable proposition, and I believe is how it works in some other countries.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    The Week predicting possible LAB victory in Newark http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/58367/newark-election-will-ukip-open-door-labour-win#.U2Oao7r0Aw4.twitter
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,913
    FPT:
    CarlottaVance said:

    “There will,”[Salmond’s chief spin-doctor] Gunn’s email concluded, “be no more access from the first minister to DC Thomson publications.” As well as the Sunday Post, these include the Dundee Courier and Aberdeen Press & Journal. Given Salmond’s touchiness about cartoons, presumably the ban extends to the Beano too.

    http://www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.php?section_link=street_of_shame&issue=1365

    The Eye overlooked the wider implications of the point that Darling is shown as an advocate (Anglice, barrister) in court, and that Salmond is shown as the pannel (Anglice, defendant), accused of a crime. The issue here is that Darling really is an advocate in actual life, which implies that Salmond really is accused of a crime. It's a grey area, but the cartoon is undoubtedly more offensive than the article likes to claim.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Quincel said:

    Surely if someone said they were keeping the cost of your petrol down, but the price increased, you'd find that an odd statement for them to make? Keeping the cost down strongly implies that the cost is going down, even if it doesn't technically require it.

    Not in any context I've ever heard the phrase. For example, companies often say they are keeping their costs down, it doesn't mean their costs are reducing, or Tory councils point out that they've kept council tax down compared with Labour councils.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    anotherDave said:

    The Conservatives have made a number of pledges for their EU Parliament campaign.

    http://www.conservatives.com/europe

    Several are clearly dishonest.

    1. "To keep the cost of Europe down"

    Britain's financial contribution to the EU is increasing.

    4. "Our country to keep control of our own borders."

    We have open door immigration with the EU.

    6. "To take back control of criminal justice"

    The Conservatives opted out of of Home and Justice Affairs, but intend to opt in again after the EU Elections. The vote is scheduled for July 22nd.

    Their referendum pledge is one I don't believe, and you do, but its one item in a list that contains lies.

    Well, you are talking nonsense - to take just the first, 'keeping costs down' means exactly what it says. Keeping costs down doesn't necessarily mean reducing them, does it? It means keeping them lower than they would have been if you'd done nothing.

    The UK government has no control over that. There is nothing they can do.

    "The British contribution to the EU will rise dramatically from £30bn to £40bn over the next five years, the Office for Budget Responsibility said.

    EU contributions are calculated in part according to each state’s national income.

    The growth forecasts across Europe have been cut as eurozone economies, particularly Greece, France and Italy, struggle under a debt crisis, leaving Britain to make up the shortfall"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/10499092/Britains-EU-contribution-to-jump-by-10bn-as-taxpayers-carry-burden-of-ailing-eurozone.html


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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    antifrank said:

    As I noted on that thread, it takes a special kind of genius to advocate taxing birthday presents.

    True, but I am surprised that the left in general don't advocate changing inheritance tax so that it is charged as income of the recipient, perhaps after an allowance of a few thousand. It's certainly an arguable proposition, and I believe is how it works in some other countries.
    Speaking on behalf of the left, I'm arguing for that.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Quincel said:

    Surely if someone said they were keeping the cost of your petrol down, but the price increased, you'd find that an odd statement for them to make? Keeping the cost down strongly implies that the cost is going down, even if it doesn't technically require it.

    Not in any context I've ever heard the phrase. For example, companies often say they are keeping their costs down, it doesn't mean their costs are reducing, or Tory councils point out that they've kept council tax down compared with Labour councils.
    Agree with Richard.

    "Costs" means cost relative to what it would have been if no action had been taken.

    Although it does offer the opportunity for immense proportions of spin



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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest from Clifford courtroom:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1253789/max-clifford-sex-assault-sentencing-live
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good Afternoon
    There a UKIP surge on facebook as well.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/02/facebook-popularity-amongst-uk-political-parties?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    anotherDave said:

    The UK government has no control over that. There is nothing they can do.

    The list you have given says "If you want to keep the cost of Europe down.. vote Conservative." Since by doing so you will increase the number of MEPs who want to reduce the costs of Europe, that is fair enough, is it not? Conservative MEPS will certainly argue for and vote for savings, more effectively than MEPs for any other party.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    The Week predicting possible LAB victory in Newark http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/58367/newark-election-will-ukip-open-door-labour-win#.U2Oao7r0Aw4.twitter

    What nonsense. Elections expert Robert Waller, who grew up in the town, has said they have virtually no chance.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,461
    Max Clifford going down for 8 years. Ouch.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    8 years for Clifford
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    PR Guru gaoled - 8 years.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,072
    Clifford's eight years.

    Good. I can imagine a number of people will be opening the champers tonight, and good on them.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Clifford gets 8 years, will serve at least half.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Breaking!!!!!!!
    LBC ‏@LBC 2m
    BREAKING: Max Clifford jailed for eight years for string of indecent assaults http://l-bc.co/q31K3F
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    I see I have been accused of racist language! Being accused of being racist to yourself is surely new ground even given the bizarre debating history of PB!
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    '#Clifford judge says he found footage of publicist mimicking @TomSkyNews extraordinary & indication show no remorse'
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    NickPalmer said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    SimonStClare said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    I used to enjoy attending PB.com functions, then held at the National Liberal Club, until they were attended by a couple of individuals I seriously dislike and who were difficult to avoid in small gatherings such as these.
    Hopefully they will both be absent from the planned get together at Ilkley.

    Didn't you organise a PBC Barbeque at the National Liberal Club some years ago?

    For all those attending Dirty Dicks tonight, enjoy the fun, and get home safely (even if it is via a short trip the the south coast) ; )
    You're confusing me with another, now rarely heard from poster ...... that's a quid you owe the PB.com social fund.
    I proposed and I think organised the first NLC event (were there several?), though I'm hazy about it now - my uncle was a member (before he drifted off to UKIP) and I launched my first book there too. I hope I wasn't one of the people PfP was avoiding... Apologies that I can't make it tonight.
    Funnily enough, that's where OGH launched HIS first book too iirc and please rest assured Nick, you are most certainly NOT either of the "disliked two".
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    UKIP should soft pedal Newark.

    A Labour win will show the stark reality of voting UKIP !
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Max Clifford will now have plenty of time to reflect on which careers he can squash with his vast bank of stories the tabloids were warned off publishing....

    By-elections, anybody?
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The Columnist Elects ‏@ColumnistElects 1m
    IND GAIN from IND in Caol and Mallaig. Ben Thompson elected.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @ToryJim‌
    They have gone up 2.7pts - the percentage rise is about 22%

    Not bad!
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    antifrank said:

    As I noted on that thread, it takes a special kind of genius to advocate taxing birthday presents.

    True, but I am surprised that the left in general don't advocate changing inheritance tax so that it is charged as income of the recipient, perhaps after an allowance of a few thousand. It's certainly an arguable proposition, and I believe is how it works in some other countries.
    Speaking on behalf of the left, I'm arguing for that.
    Speaking as someone of the right(ish), either abolish inheritance tax altogether (the sensible option considering it is only paid by people with poor planning or bad luck) or do as you suggest and treat it as taxable income for the recipients (which won't really work as wills will be changed so as the benefit but not the cash will be left).

    I think Australia, that well known bastion of privilege and grinding the faces off the poor, just gave up on the whole thing some years ago. Just too much faff for so little income.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    anotherDave said:

    The UK government has no control over that. There is nothing they can do.

    The list you have given says "If you want to keep the cost of Europe down.. vote Conservative." Since by doing so you will increase the number of MEPs who want to reduce the costs of Europe, that is fair enough, is it not? Conservative MEPS will certainly argue for and vote for savings, more effectively than MEPs for any other party.
    Policy is set by the commission, not the parliament.

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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    antifrank said:

    As I noted on that thread, it takes a special kind of genius to advocate taxing birthday presents.

    True, but I am surprised that the left in general don't advocate changing inheritance tax so that it is charged as income of the recipient, perhaps after an allowance of a few thousand. It's certainly an arguable proposition, and I believe is how it works in some other countries.
    It would certainly be good to iron out the anomaly arising from the "normal expenditure out of income" exemption, whereby if I give my son £20,000 it is taxable in the event of my death, but a billionaire can give his son an allowance of £20,000 a month or more, if he can afford it without cramping his lifestyle, and those payments are exempt.

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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @MikeK‌

    IND hold ;-)
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes Apr 30
    UKIP 11% Clear Among Those Certain to Vote http://guyfawk.es/1fscdJ0 pic.twitter.com/9ThAfzLvqD
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MarqueeMark said:

    Max Clifford will now have plenty of time to reflect on which careers he can squash with his vast bank of stories the tabloids were warned off publishing....

    By-elections, anybody?

    Clifford brokered stories for 'Kiss and Tell' footballer shaggers, or set up 'relationships' for Z listers. Do you really think he's got dirt on high end politicians? Seriously?
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    JosiasJessop said:

    Clifford's eight years.

    Good. I can imagine a number of people will be opening the champers tonight, and good on them.

    Twitter has gone completely loopy - I think they are the direct descendants of those that attended witch burning or enjoyed knitting, sat next to the guillotine.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    TheWatcher said:

    '#Clifford judge says he found footage of publicist mimicking @TomSkyNews extraordinary & indication show no remorse'

    He probably got an extra year or so in the round for that idiotic gesture. Hur hur hur.....
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    anotherDave said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    anotherDave said:

    The UK government has no control over that. There is nothing they can do.

    The list you have given says "If you want to keep the cost of Europe down.. vote Conservative." Since by doing so you will increase the number of MEPs who want to reduce the costs of Europe, that is fair enough, is it not? Conservative MEPS will certainly argue for and vote for savings, more effectively than MEPs for any other party.
    Policy is set by the commission, not the parliament.

    No, the parliament has a say in the budget.

    Still, I like your argument. You are arguing that UKIP are the most dishonest of all the parties because MEPs can't 'get our country back'.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    Mr. Watcher, I saw that footage earlier. It was quite odd, and not very clever.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Ishmael_X said:


    It would certainly be good to iron out the anomaly arising from the "normal expenditure out of income" exemption, whereby if I give my son £20,000 it is taxable in the event of my death, but a billionaire can give his son an allowance of £20,000 a month or more, if he can afford it without cramping his lifestyle, and those payments are exempt.

    But that would mean the same income is taxed twice.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    TheWatcher said:


    Clifford brokered stories for 'Kiss and Tell' footballer shaggers, or set up 'relationships' for Z listers. Do you really think he's got dirt on high end politicians? Seriously?

    Clifford was the obvious go-to guy for anybody who had a story about anyone in the public eye where they thought they might make a few quid. I would be astonished if he didn't.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014
    Clifford better have his soap on a rope. Or rather, I hope he doesn't. Pervy old oaf
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    anotherDave said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    anotherDave said:

    The UK government has no control over that. There is nothing they can do.

    The list you have given says "If you want to keep the cost of Europe down.. vote Conservative." Since by doing so you will increase the number of MEPs who want to reduce the costs of Europe, that is fair enough, is it not? Conservative MEPS will certainly argue for and vote for savings, more effectively than MEPs for any other party.
    Policy is set by the commission, not the parliament.

    Still, I like your argument. You are arguing that UKIP are the most dishonest of all the parties because MEPs can't 'get our country back'.
    They can vote against any increase in EU powers. But the explicit intention of UKIP is to campaign for an exit from the EU.

    They hope a strong performance in the EU Parliament elections will pressure Labour to commit to hold an in/out referendum after the 2015 election.
This discussion has been closed.