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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : May 1st 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : May 1st 2014
Caol and Mallaig on Highland (Independent defence)
Result of last election to council (2012): Independent 33, SNP 22, Liberal Democrat 15, Labour 8, Non Party Independent 2 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 8)
Result of ward at last election (2012) :
0
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Mr. Llama, signed up for the Mk3 game. Made some schoolboy errors with 2, but I'm quite enjoying it anyway. Hope to be somewhere other than Russia (not that the Winter Palace isn't delightful).
Evening folks.
The only games I am any good at is poker – but this sounds intriguing. Can I watch your game unfold without playing?
The rules are very simple and can be learned in half an hour. How easy the game is to win depends on who you are playing against (if you ever find your self up against a bloke called Andy Cooke remember this - he is charming, a pleasure to meet, a good father, a loving husband, kind to animals and the most devious, back-stabbing bastard on the face of the planet). Remember the game is based around a paradox - it is impossible to win on your own you need other players to help you, but why should they as they also want to win.
So don't bother to watch, if you are interested sign up an play.
P.S. If you are interested in playing then I do recommend you take a look at the late Richard Sharp's book. It si a getting a bit old now and there are lots of resources on the 'net that will give more sophisticated analyses of the game, but as a beginers guide to get a feel for the game I don't think Sharp can be bettered.
http://www.diplomacy-archive.com/god.htm
In brief: the reforms put GPs at the head of smaller commissioning bodies, CCGs, who commission secondary care, but not primary or specialised care. These have been given to the new super-quango, NHS England.
However, NHS England has been unable to manage these duties, so the new head of NHS England, with the backing of Jeremy Hunt, has announced that CCGs can, if they show good plans, start co-commissioning primary care. There will be concern about conflicts of interest, as GPs will be designing how GPs will work with other parts of the system. Others are already pointing out that this represents another step back towards the old model that Lansley shattered.
A link for any interested : http://www.gponline.com/ccgs-invited-bid-primary-care-commissioning-powers/article/1292618
I got it from Past Times, before it became focused on the War.
STV is working in Scottish local government and could in English and Welsh local government too.
Whi9ch I am convinced is the strongest country - though I haven't had Britain yet.
I could be entirely wrong, of course. I haven't even finished one game yet.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fracking-s-effect-on-water-not-properly-monitored-report-finds-1.2627709
http://www.oldham-chronicle.co.uk/mobile/news-full?ID=85443&cat=8
I'd also suggest that Turkey is not the strongest country. It has some advantages in defence which cannot be denied but defending doesn't win games. To expand Turkey has some real issues to overcome, more so than probably any other country, save Italy.
Its an abomination in 1900 variant though.
Over the years I think that I have won with all the countries apart from Austria, and lost with all the countries. It really is fairly evenly matched, which is why it is such a fascinating game.
For those who love wargaming, look at the games on Android by Joni Nuutinen:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/developer?id=Joni+Nuutinen
When I first got Operation Barbarossa I pulled an all-nighter it was so compelling. Just as well that I was on holiday at the time! It helps to have been brought up on Hex based games as the rules are not too obvious.
Italy is tough to get past the first four centres. Better to work on Germany first, the French eternal enemy.
Playing Diplomacy does give insight into alliances of 1914, though the Ottomans come out more powerful than real life.
YouGov/Channel 4
Yes 42% (n/c)
No 58% (n/c)
The No campaign's lead:
Sep 2013 - 21.6%
Sep 2013 - 21.4%
Sep 2013 - 19.4%
Oct 2013 - 18.8%
Oct 2013 - 18.4%
Oct 2013 - 18.2%
Nov 2013 - 18.4%
Nov 2013 - 18.0%
Dec 2013 - 17.0%
Dec 2013 - 16.8%
Dec 2013 - 16.4%
Jan 2014 - 14.4%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 15.2%
Feb 2014 - 15.0%
Feb 2014 - 15.5%
Feb 2014 - 15.5%
Feb 2014 - 13.7%
Feb 2014 - 13.3%
Feb 2014 - 14.2%
Mar 2014 - 14.2%
Mar 2014 - 14.5%
Mar 2014 - 14.5%
Mar 2014 - 14.7%
Mar 2014 - 13.8%
Mar 2014 - 13.0%
Mar 2014 - 12.5%
Apr 2014 - 12.5%
Apr 2014 - 12.7%
Apr 2014 - 12.7%
Apr 2014 - 12.3%
Apr 2014 - 11.4%
May 2014 - 11.2%
More voters switching to UKIP from Lib Dems than Labour says @LordAshcroft. V interesting interview http://www.lordashcroft.com/fabian_riddell_28042014.pdf … (via @sundersays)
SNP 47%
Lab 17%
Con 6%
LD 2%
Grn 1%
UKIP 1%
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fhj5fuzqb4/UniofCardiff_FoES_Scotland_140422_website_v1.pdf
pic.twitter.com/a2Xe1OEkOn
"One of those leaflets suggests that UKIP want to build 7 aircraft carriers. Is that correct?"
One of the things the political class have screwed up the most over the last 30 years is skill training. Private companies generally don't like doing it if they can possibly avoid doing so because they pay for it and then the person they trained gets poached by someone who didn't.
(A bit like the political class getting the 3rd world to train nurses and then poaching them.)
In the past it wasn't so much of a problem because so much of it was done by the nationalized industries and the armed forces.
So one part of the skill training problem was caused by the civilianization of the support functions in the forces.
So when the baddies make up stuff, or maybe in some cases even genuinely report stuff, that sounds like it's too much defense money and unaffordable, don't argue the details, start talking about defense spending in terms of skill training.
defense as a priority plus more skill training - double plus good
It would be worth Ukip deliberately overstating defense aims (a little) to try and draw fire just as an excuse to counter attack on the skill training line.
(ideally the contracts would be combat/trade imo e.g. 2 years combat arm, 1 year trade arm, 5 and 2, 9 and 3 etc.)
Probably going to tell us Jose had some cocoa and has gone to bed.
The downside about STV council elections in Scotland is that when there is a byelection in these multi-member wards, if the councillor to be replaced isn't the one who came out top in the original election, the candidate from the party which did will almost always win. To that extent saying a party which is defending a 2nd, 3rd or 4th elected councillor vacancy holds or loses the seat is often misleading. In Caol and Mallaig it will probably take longer to drive from one end of the ward to the other than to count the total votes cast.
Isn't France considered to be the 'best' acre-for-acre nation in the world, in geopolitical terms? Has loads of borders, huge variety of landscape types, strategically useful position and superb agricultural conditions. Good climate. Someone told me that it's 'worth' more than any other country, were these things quantifiable (which they aren't really!)
First rule of psephology - the real YouGov is the YouGov that is worst for Labour ;-)
#UKIP candidate @UEAUnion European hustings responds to audience barracking by saying "You have a right to vote against me. Do it!" #ep2014
Laura Ingraham @IngrahamAngle 4m
Newsflash...41, 43...45! "George W. Bush to CNN's Jake Tapper: I Hope Jeb Runs"http://www.mediaite.com/tv/george-w-bush-to-cnns-jake-tapper-i-hope-jeb-runs/ …
I think Italy should ignore Tunisia first turn and focus on opening to Greece, and it would gain a much better chance of victory.
But then (and Nick Palmer observed after playing a few games with me) I tend towards an unconventional set of moves generally.
"Labour really need to stop playing Whack-a-Mole with people's savings."
Memo to Nigel Farage: You might want to step in and nip this one in the bud.
Just friendly advice, you understand.
An Italian start to take Greece requires the consent of both Turkey and Austria to succeed. Why on earth should they agree? No, if Italy has an unconventional opening it must surely be an attack against France, but that still requires Austria to be busy to the East and finding something for its fleet to do - not easy to arrange.
I have never worked out a good line for play for Italy. If it can survive the opening few years it can, in my experience, do well but one needs to be lucky in one's opponents. Now, if the game were to give Italy two fleets and one army at the outset, rather than the other way around, then Italy would be a sparking country to play in the early game.
Should that be when the window opens....... counting chickens etc
Note this bit:
Ashcroft thinks “UKIP are here to stay – or at least that is their intention. If they were really all about withdrawing from the EU, they would support the only election outcome that could give them the referendum they want, namely a Tory government. The better they do next year, the less likely that is to happen, which suggests their objective is to become a permanent fixture on the political scene.”
Well, quite. Nothing to do with the EU.
France is difficult, unless as part of an Italo-English alliance.
That Diplomacy book looks good. Sherlockjr is not doing too well, but is enjoying himself.
It's a statement of the obvious, like most of what I post here.
Its a free market, the govt should butt out
If you cant afford the going rate, apply for a council flat
http://www.argojournal.com/2014/04/poll-watch-abc-newswashington-post-2016_30.html
•Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
•Jeb Bush (R) 41%
And this from Farleigh Dickinson confirms that Jeb would be mad to run
http://www.argojournal.com/2014/04/poll-watch-fairleigh-dickinson.html•
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
•Paul Ryan (R) 38%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
•Chris Christie (R) 36%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
•Rand Paul (R) 37%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
•Mike Huckabee (R) 36%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
•Jeb Bush (R) 33%
The Bush name is still toxic, I think Jeb realises this which is why he has passed the mantle to his half-Hispanic son George P who is running for Texas Land Cssioner this year
Nigel Pearsonwill buy sensibly, he rarely makes a bad buy. Riyad Mahrez is a bargain for £400 000 and adapted easily to English Football. I am really looking forward to our first Premiership season for a decade, and with the best team since the glory days of 15 years ago. Apparently Nigel now has the highest win ratio of any manager in the club history, and the Thais are more patient than most eccentric billionaire owners.
Meanwhile, totally off topic, I heard on the radio that Townsend is out of the WC. I somehow missed this story completely
It's a big loss for me - exciting, fast player (who plays for his local club!) and loves playing for England
Playing the Frogs in the game comes down to a simple question, "When am I going to war with England?" Unless England is played by a complete idiot France cannot win without a war with England (and visa versa) so the question is when will that war break out and who will start it? Seethe death match for an example.
Its down to me how much I charge the people living in my flat and down to the person who owns the house I live in how much they charge me
We have contracts, we are grown ups, what's the prob?
Strategic thinking, tactical battling, forward planning, diplomacy, team-working and dealing with some complex probabilities. All good training for life in the NHS.
twitter.com/mattsimmonds/status/461904886448553984/photo/1
Office politics...
Greece is a southern Belgium and should be treated as such. Italy should chase it as much as England does Belgium.
Once in Greece you can still pick up Tunisia in 1902 (no-one else will get to it first) and with a balkan foothold you've got a base for development.
My second choice would be to go Venice-Tyrolia-Bohemia and send that army on a merry wander to see where it ends up (Galicia is very interesting if open).
France is only do-able with Germany doing most of the work, not a fan generally.
The standard conservative opening to Tunisia is an over-emphasis on material rather than position. It means you get shut out of the Balkans permanently and pretty much have to wait and be a scavenger getting crumbs from someone else's victory which doesn't give you the resources to build a strong position before someone bigger comes along.
To Greece I say!
I am available for consultation
" The chart here suggests that manufacturing is pretty much at the same level now as it was when Osborne came to office. Since that time the figures show it has roughly followed a sine wave of expansion, followed by almost two years of further contraction, and more recently expansion again.
It is a lamentably poor record.
What makes it all the more ridiculous is that if you were to mark the point at which Osborne announced "the march of the makers" in his 2011 budget speech it would be almost precisely when manufacturing reached its most recent maxima and his words were then followed by nearly two years of manufacturing contraction. "
Its a little know fact that Osborne has presided over a longer industrial recession (the six quarters between 2011Q1 and 2012Q2, followed by a single quarter of expansion and then another dip to a low in 2012Q4) than the recession of 1974-1975 (5 quarters), 1980-1981 (5 quarters) and 1990-1991 (5 quarters).
On the narrower manufacturing definition there have been two Osborne recessions - four quarters between 2011Q3 and 2012Q2, a single quarter of expansion and then another two quarters of 2012Q4 and 2013Q1. In comparison the 1974-1975, 1980-1981 and 1990-1991 manufacturing recession were only five quarters each time and 2008-2009 was only four quarters of manufacturing recession.
During his manufacturing recessions Osborne had unlimited money to subsidise consumption (and so indirectly and ironically Chinese tat factories) and has always been willing to find more money to subsidise estate agents and banks.
But all manufacturing received was ever more taxes and regulations and crap such as 'March of the Makers'.
As I say this is little known and especially so among the metropolitan politicians and 'experts'.
But it helps to explain the disdain the likes of Alanbrooke and myself feel towards this government.
http://m.youtube.com/channel/UCsLiV4WJfkTEHH0b9PmRklw
In the week Britain was left stunned by the classroom stabbing of teacher Ann Maguire, the Deputy Prime Minister and senior colleagues flatly refused to support a tightening of the law in private Whitehall talks.
In one letter to Mr Clegg, sent on Tuesday and leaked to the Daily Mail, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander insists jailing more offenders caught with blades would be too expensive.
In another letter, Lib Dem schools minister David Laws says he is unwilling to support mandatory minimum sentences.
Justice Secretary Chris Grayling has drawn up plans to legislate so that offenders caught more than once with a blade are automatically jailed, according to senior sources.
The review is understood to have been prompted by alarming evidence that thugs are avoiding jail despite repeatedly flouting the law by carrying knives.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2618245/Clegg-bid-block-knife-crackdown-Days-shocking-classroom-murder-Ann-Maguire-Deputy-PM-senior-Lib-Dems-refuse-support-tightening-laws.html#ixzz30VjGM0vg
Mandatory? Why do we pay judges so much? are they old? senile?.
Instead of useless time wasting nonsense, get parliament to have a discussion with the judiciary over more appropriate guidelines.
No laws to pass, just a grown up consensus with other rational adults?
Ahhh, the flaw in the plan, "rational adults".....forget it
Antrim Northern Ireland - Day 2 of the internment without trial of Gerry 'St Gerry' Adams aka The Beard.
If it goes deep into a 3rd day conspiracy theories will grow. Protest marches will begin, with tough nut locals in tracktops and brightly coloured trainers being joined by earnest, po-faced silver spoon upper middle-class foreigners with f**k all better to do, banners a forefront in support of this innocent man. People from Belfast to Liverpool, from Derry to Glasgow and maybe even Boston (though they caught on a bit after 9/11) will demand his freedom. Murals of support will be painted in Belfast of a smiling Gerry with barbed wire and shadowy figures behind him.
Stories will leak about the conditions of his incarceration, wall standing sessions lasting hours, beatings, waterboarding or even worse, that he is forced to sleep in a small cell, not his big comfy house and isn't allowed to post things to his blog.
Calls will be made to Tony Blair before it's realised he doesn't count for squat any more. George Galloway will have something new to harp the f**k on about. People will hail Gerry's political genius and success that had nothing to do with his association with blokes with guns.
Talk will turn to 'threats to the peace process' that this internment of Gerry will cause.....whatever that means.
None of this has yet happened and next to none of it will...why is everyone so passive at the arrest of this apparently towering diety of a man.
Too many skeletons....
https://m.ladbrokes.com/#!event_details?id=216136503
Con: 169,792
Lab: 165,112
UKIP: 103,612
LD: 93,966
Greens: 31,378
Con: 30.1%
Lab: 29.3%
UKIP: 18.4%
LD: 16.7%
Greens: 5.6%
"An in-out referendum on Europe.
Labour and the Lib Dems Won't.
UKIP can't.
We will in 2017.
Vote Conservative on 22nd May."
(When I tried a different browser, with no history/cookies I didn't see the Conservatives advert.)