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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s new Euro polls: Survation for London and YouGov for

24

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Farage needs to employ John Prescott as his close protection detail....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    "It's almost inevitable there will be a custodial sentence."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27244889

    Rather than remain a positive role model for troubled girls, she destroys her career by perjury.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2014
    Huhne, in fairness to the charlatan, told Detective Constable Fullerton in interview in 2011 his views on the reliability and motives of Briscoe. The jury at the Central Criminal Court has agreed with him. The Crown intended to call Briscoe as a hearsay witness against Huhne. It was Briscoe's unlawful actions which Huhne's counsel described as a 'poisonous and toxic conspiracy' against his client in October 2012, and led to the postponement of the trial until the following spring. Briscoe was also a source of the Associate Newspapers Ltd, and it is no coincidence that the Mail were constantly suggesting that the charges against Huhne would be dropped in the autumn and winter of 2012. At that stage, they were attempting to undermine the potential prosecution of their source by a collateral attack on the proceedings against Huhne and Pryce.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    The 70s were an interesting decade politically. I quite enjoyed the three-day week but the Left was all over the place. The energy unions were the big beasts but a few years later, the miners took over. I had a lot of sympathy for them and they had the misfortune to elect Scargill, who Mr Dancer do doubt has an historical comparison for.

    Keep digging bloody great holes in the ground - no problem with that, but why is Labour and Ed so against Fracking then? A little inconsistent?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    @State_go_away Managed to get another £50 on now :), my Dad had £20 for himself too

    Try a betting shop, Pulpy.

    Just got 100 on at 11/10 in my High Street. Had to wait five minutes while they contacted Head Office for somebody who knew they were offering such a bet, but it was worth it.
    Any more than 50 would probably worry my Dad a touch ;)

    Will try for another £50 at the shop...

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2014
    UNS YouGov

    Lab 25 (+12)
    UKIP 22 (+9)
    Con 15 (-11)
    LD 3 (-8)
    Green 2 (nc)
    SNP 2 (nc)
    Plaid 1 (nc)

    although, interestingly the LDs would not win a seat in London, contrary to the Survation poll...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27234111

    "PC James Patrick says he has been "forced out" of the Metropolitan Police despite his concerns about the recording of crimes being echoed by a new report.

    Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) found that a fifth of crimes in England and Wales could be going unrecorded by police.

    Mr Patrick had previously claimed that crime figures were manipulated and sexual offences were being under-reported by 22-25%."

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/nov/22/whistleblowers-protect-pledge-tracker

    "The coalition appears to have shelved plans to introduce new protections for public sector workers who blow the whistle on dangerous, corrupt or incompetent practices, the Guardian has learned."
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2014
    Huhne's statement in full:
    Constance Briscoe has been revealed as a compulsive and self-publicising fantasist.

    British justice is likely to be a lot fairer with Briscoe behind bars. If she can make up the witness statement used as the key evidence against me, she is clearly capable of hiding evidence she should have disclosed to the defence in the many cases that she prosecuted for the Crown Prosecution Service. Aggrieved defendants will now seek a CPS review.

    There is also an issue for the bar and the judiciary. Every barrister I spoke to during my three-year ordeal said that Constance Briscoe was mad, bad, or dangerous. Yet the bar, the CPS and the judiciary went on entrusting her with responsibility for people's lives because they were not prepared to blow the whistle on one of their own.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @Life_ina_market_town: Has there ever walked on this earth anyone more arrogant and self-serving than Chris Huhne?

    He might well be right about Ms Briscoe, but, reading his statement and his comments on his 'ordeal', you'd be hard-put to discover any clue that he might himself have been not entirely without blame in the matter.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Wm Hill allowed me all of a tenner on the London EU election bet online. I can't get away from my desk to get into a shop :(
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    dr_spyn said:

    CourtNewsUK ‏@CourtNewsUK 4m
    Briscoe a 'compulsive and self-publicising fantasist’ says Chris Huhne. Right back at ya

    "And black too," said the Raven of the Crow."

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    MM,

    "Farage needs to employ John Prescott as his close protection detail."

    Spot on.

    I never understand why throwing eggs is somehow excusable. if I remember correctly, Prescott had about 85% of the public behind him with his reaction. I expect the egg thrower today believes that the other 15% are the important people.

    Probably worth 1% to Ukip in the polls.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    @Life_ina_market_town: Has there ever walked on this earth anyone more arrogant and self-serving than Chris Huhne?

    He might well be right about Ms Briscoe, but, reading his statement and his comments on his 'ordeal', you'd be hard-put to discover any clue that he might himself have been not entirely without blame in the matter.

    He has learned nothing, he has forgotten nothing.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    antifrank said:

    Wm Hill allowed me all of a tenner on the London EU election bet online. I can't get away from my desk to get into a shop :(

    Strictly in value terms, your popping out to a betting shop to try to get another £50 on might not be the best possible use of your time :-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    antifrank said:

    Wm Hill allowed me all of a tenner on the London EU election bet online. I can't get away from my desk to get into a shop :(

    I'm desperately trying to work out the catch tbh - the price just seems too good to be true !
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    @Life_ina_market_town: Has there ever walked on this earth anyone more arrogant and self-serving than Chris Huhne?

    He might well be right about Ms Briscoe, but, reading his statement and his comments on his 'ordeal', you'd be hard-put to discover any clue that he might himself have been not entirely without blame in the matter.

    Huhne is a scrote of the highest order, Parliament is much improved by his absence.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    antifrank said:

    Wm Hill allowed me all of a tenner on the London EU election bet online. I can't get away from my desk to get into a shop :(

    Strictly in value terms, your popping out to a betting shop to try to get another £50 on might not be the best possible use of your time :-)
    Depends who the time is charged to!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Wm Hill allowed me all of a tenner on the London EU election bet online. I can't get away from my desk to get into a shop :(

    I'm desperately trying to work out the catch tbh - the price just seems too good to be true !
    Any price better than 1/6 looks like outstanding value to me. Evens is sensational.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Wm Hill allowed me all of a tenner on the London EU election bet online. I can't get away from my desk to get into a shop :(

    Strictly in value terms, your popping out to a betting shop to try to get another £50 on might not be the best possible use of your time :-)
    Depends who the time is charged to!
    You will be relieved to know that today's task is billing (for the year end). Which explains why I have posted so much on here today, in a desperate attempt at work avoidance.
  • @Life_ina_market_town: Has there ever walked on this earth anyone more arrogant and self-serving than Chris Huhne?

    He might well be right about Ms Briscoe, but, reading his statement and his comments on his 'ordeal', you'd be hard-put to discover any clue that he might himself have been not entirely without blame in the matter.

    Huhne favours a contextualist approach to criminology. Thus it is not his responsibility that he perverted the course of public justice. Rather his actions can be explained by the machinations of the Murdoch empire, his former wife and Ms Briscoe. He is a dangerous charlatan who fortunately has no political future in this jurisdiction.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Hmm Wonder if @isam is down Hills right now asking how much they will take on it.

    He's a professional punter sooo...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    I don't think the WH odds complier has seen this poll
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    London bet now into EVENS from 11/10 . Still taking money imo
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818

    London bet now into EVENS from 11/10 . Still taking money imo

    At least it will make back £50 of what I have lost on holding sodding serco shares this week!!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    He is a dangerous charlatan who fortunately has no political future in this jurisdiction.

    Isn't it people like this who are firing the Faragasm? Wealthy, left leaning,moralising and with big plans for other people?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    Green Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections.

    http://youtu.be/iitH2FsWarE
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Green Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections.

    Best of the bunch so far!

    Even against a low base that's pretty good - effective use of humour and addressing their 'wasted vote' syndrome.

    I wonder if the Greens could be the 'surprise'? The rest is surely 'priced in'?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    taffys said:

    He is a dangerous charlatan who fortunately has no political future in this jurisdiction.

    Isn't it people like this who are firing the Faragasm? Wealthy, left leaning,moralising and with big plans for other people?

    "A period of silence on your part would be welcome" is a phrase made for people like Chris Huhne and Denis Macshane.

  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Ed Miliband launched his rent-capping policy today then. Was he on the TV news? I didn't see

    If so, I predict a small shaving off Labour's polling share early next week. Perhaps the Tuesday You Gov. It tends to happen.
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Labour at 3/1 to win most votes in Scotland also looks a fair bet to me.
    Not as good as the London bet was though.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2014
    Sean_F said:

    taffys said:

    He is a dangerous charlatan who fortunately has no political future in this jurisdiction.

    Isn't it people like this who are firing the Faragasm? Wealthy, left leaning,moralising and with big plans for other people?

    "A period of silence on your part would be welcome" is a phrase made for people like Chris Huhne and Denis Macshane.

    We might as well tattoo it on Vicky Pryce's forehead for both their benefit.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    shadsy said:

    Labour at 3/1 to win most votes in Scotland also looks a fair bet to me.
    Not as good as the London bet was though.

    Tipping your own book Shadsy? ;-)
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Green Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections.

    http://youtu.be/iitH2FsWarE

    Secret Trade deals?

    The TTIP has it's own website FFS.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ttip/
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Fat_Steve said:

    Ed Miliband launched his rent-capping policy today then. Was he on the TV news? I didn't see

    If so, I predict a small shaving off Labour's polling share early next week. Perhaps the Tuesday You Gov. It tends to happen.

    "it tends to happen"

    You have no evidence whatsoever for that. In fact, the last time Labour came out with a big visible announcement with Ed all over the telly – energy freeze - the party's poll rating improved.

    But whatever gets you through the night.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Right I'm off to a Hills shop to try and get another £50 on.

    See you all.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited May 2014

    Green Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections.

    Best of the bunch so far!

    Even against a low base that's pretty good - effective use of humour and addressing their 'wasted vote' syndrome.

    I wonder if the Greens could be the 'surprise'? The rest is surely 'priced in'?
    Depends on the definition of 'surprise' - I think that they could easily keep their current 2 MEPs, but struggle to see where they can make any gains.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Pulpstar said:

    Single
    22 May 2014 - European Parliament Elections - Region Betting - London - Party With The Most Votes
    Labour @ 11/10
    Stake : £9.09
    Estimated Returns : £19.08
    Transaction Reference:--
    Total Stake : £9.09

    is that your admirable prudence in limiting the bet or William Hills ?
    What a great bet. Just tried to pile in. Now seems to be down to 2/5 and someone is going to be getting a rocket at Hill towers I shouldn't wonder.

    Well done to all PBers who took advantage of this free money.

    Shame I missed it.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    BobaFett said:

    shadsy said:

    Labour at 3/1 to win most votes in Scotland also looks a fair bet to me.
    Not as good as the London bet was though.

    Tipping your own book Shadsy? ;-)
    Apols - looked down thread and see you were tipping Hills' book. Fair enough!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Pulpstar said:

    Right I'm off to a Hills shop to try and get another £50 on.

    See you all.

    Pulpstar said:

    Right I'm off to a Hills shop to try and get another £50 on.

    See you all.

    Either I'm looking in the wrong place or they've slashed the odds to 2/5
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Lennon said:

    Green Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections.

    Best of the bunch so far!

    Even against a low base that's pretty good - effective use of humour and addressing their 'wasted vote' syndrome.

    I wonder if the Greens could be the 'surprise'? The rest is surely 'priced in'?
    Depends on the definition of 'surprise' - I think that they could easily keep their current 2 MEPs, but struggle to see where they can make any gains.
    Northwest would be the most obvious, particularly with the BNP and possibly the Lib Dems struggling to retain their seats there. East of England is the other target region but I wonder whether Yorkshire isnt a better shot (again due to BNP losing their seat). Difficult to see a breakthrough anywhere else.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Heroic typo in the url!

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    al beeb.

    Ukraine reinstates military conscription to deal with deteriorating security in east of the country

    More to follow.
  • MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    Just put £35 onin a shop but it was at 4/7
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    BobaFett said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    Ed Miliband launched his rent-capping policy today then. Was he on the TV news? I didn't see

    If so, I predict a small shaving off Labour's polling share early next week. Perhaps the Tuesday You Gov. It tends to happen.

    "it tends to happen"

    You have no evidence whatsoever for that. In fact, the last time Labour came out with a big visible announcement with Ed all over the telly – energy freeze - the party's poll rating improved.

    But whatever gets you through the night.
    No you're right - I didn't produce any evidence. But it seems to me to happen reasonably reliably. I might look at doing a graph of Ed M TV exposure vs Labour YouGov share 4 or 5 days later. It would be interesting.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Lennon said:

    Green Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections.

    Best of the bunch so far!

    Even against a low base that's pretty good - effective use of humour and addressing their 'wasted vote' syndrome.

    I wonder if the Greens could be the 'surprise'? The rest is surely 'priced in'?
    Depends on the definition of 'surprise' - I think that they could easily keep their current 2 MEPs, but struggle to see where they can make any gains.
    Perhaps you have looked at this more closely then I have, but on the face of it a small increase in the Green vote could lead to a number of extra MEPs.

    I think they were 0.8 points from an MEP in the South-West, 0.4 points from an MEP in the North-West and 1.1 points from an MEP in the East of England.

    On the other hand, if you are expecting the number of votes to parties with no MEPs to decline, then it does raise the bar for the number of votes needed for a single MEP - is that what I'm missing from my simplistic look at the 2009 results?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Fat_Steve said:

    BobaFett said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    Ed Miliband launched his rent-capping policy today then. Was he on the TV news? I didn't see

    If so, I predict a small shaving off Labour's polling share early next week. Perhaps the Tuesday You Gov. It tends to happen.

    "it tends to happen"

    You have no evidence whatsoever for that. In fact, the last time Labour came out with a big visible announcement with Ed all over the telly – energy freeze - the party's poll rating improved.

    But whatever gets you through the night.
    No you're right - I didn't produce any evidence. But it seems to me to happen reasonably reliably. I might look at doing a graph of Ed M TV exposure vs Labour YouGov share 4 or 5 days later. It would be interesting.
    Were it even possible to do accurately, you might find it shows you the opposite of what you are expecting...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Neil said:

    Lennon said:

    Green Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections.

    Best of the bunch so far!

    Even against a low base that's pretty good - effective use of humour and addressing their 'wasted vote' syndrome.

    I wonder if the Greens could be the 'surprise'? The rest is surely 'priced in'?
    Depends on the definition of 'surprise' - I think that they could easily keep their current 2 MEPs, but struggle to see where they can make any gains.
    Northwest would be the most obvious, particularly with the BNP and possibly the Lib Dems struggling to retain their seats there. East of England is the other target region but I wonder whether Yorkshire isnt a better shot (again due to BNP losing their seat). Difficult to see a breakthrough anywhere else.
    North West is the likeliest, as it has 8 seats. It's harder to break through where there are only 6 seats in the region.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Heroic typo in the url!

    The commentary is a bit strange too - it suggests a shift to 'no' when it's actually a continuing narrowing of the gap found by yougov.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Heroic typo in the url!

    Any detail on the changes since the last one ?

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    edited May 2014
    From Labour's latest document:
    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Lennon said:

    Green Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections.

    Best of the bunch so far!

    Even against a low base that's pretty good - effective use of humour and addressing their 'wasted vote' syndrome.

    I wonder if the Greens could be the 'surprise'? The rest is surely 'priced in'?
    Depends on the definition of 'surprise' - I think that they could easily keep their current 2 MEPs, but struggle to see where they can make any gains.
    Perhaps you have looked at this more closely then I have, but on the face of it a small increase in the Green vote could lead to a number of extra MEPs.

    I think they were 0.8 points from an MEP in the South-West, 0.4 points from an MEP in the North-West and 1.1 points from an MEP in the East of England.

    On the other hand, if you are expecting the number of votes to parties with no MEPs to decline, then it does raise the bar for the number of votes needed for a single MEP - is that what I'm missing from my simplistic look at the 2009 results?
    I was working on the principle that 'wasted' votes to MEP Parties declined - thus raising the bar, as well as not expecting them to 'beat' their vote last time, but merely to beat the current polling numbers (which are some way below what they achieved last time)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?

    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    BobaFett said:


    Were it even possible to do accurately, you might find it shows you the opposite of what you are expecting...

    I might indeed. I have a feeling that I wouldn't. I would need to figure out a simple metric for "Ed Milliband TV exposure"

    I could frame a low-stakes charity bet of Tuesday/ Wednesday next week You Gov polling being slightly lower for Labour, on average, than today and tomorrow. Interested ? Tenner to Mike's server fund? I say lower.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983



    I think they were 0.8 points from an MEP in the South-West, 0.4 points from an MEP in the North-West and 1.1 points from an MEP in the East of England.

    Those look about right to me - I'd add in Yorkshire as another potential region (1.3 away from the BNP who took the last seat last time).
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    TGOHF said:

    Heroic typo in the url!

    Any detail on the changes since the last one ?

    Hasn't the poll actually moved towards Yes??
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    Heroic typo in the url!

    The commentary is a bit strange too - it suggests a shift to 'no' when it's actually a continuing narrowing of the gap found by yougov.
    Commentary is garbage. Still I bet its still the best poll for YES on a Thursday in May 2014 ever - so Eck's relentless march continues.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2014
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?

    How are they going to pay for the increase to 50% in top rate?

    John Redwood discovered lowering the top rate got us an extra 9 billion.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TGOHF said:

    Heroic typo in the url!

    Any detail on the changes since the last one ?

    Yes 37% (n/c)
    No 51% (-1)

    Essentially 'flat' - so Nats will crow 'momentum continues', Unionists cry 'Nat bandwagon stalled'.......
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    BobaFett said:

    TGOHF said:

    Heroic typo in the url!

    Any detail on the changes since the last one ?

    Hasn't the poll actually moved towards Yes??
    Very slightly, Yes nc, No -1

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!

    There is an implication that if the cut is for hardworking people the increase is because those aren't hardworking, or somehow don't deserve their money.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    Heroic typo in the url!

    The commentary is a bit strange too - it suggests a shift to 'no' when it's actually a continuing narrowing of the gap found by yougov.
    Commentary is garbage. Still I bet its still the best poll for YES on a Thursday in May 2014 ever - so Eck's relentless march continues.
    I think it might be the best result for 'no' with yougov in the campaign so far ... (though that's from a quick scan of results from UK Polling Report and I might easily have missed a better one).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!

    First clause:
    "Cut income tax for hardworking people"

    Second clause:
    "introduce a 50p top rate of tax" - i.e. a tax rise for the highest earners.

    As they want hard working people to have a tax cut, it is obvious that those who will get a tax rise are seen as not hard working. Otherwise they'd be getting a tax cut.

    Simples.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033

    BobaFett said:

    TGOHF said:

    Heroic typo in the url!

    Any detail on the changes since the last one ?

    Hasn't the poll actually moved towards Yes??
    Very slightly, Yes nc, No -1

    and when DK are removed there is no change.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Lennon said:

    Lennon said:

    Green Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections.

    Best of the bunch so far!

    Even against a low base that's pretty good - effective use of humour and addressing their 'wasted vote' syndrome.

    I wonder if the Greens could be the 'surprise'? The rest is surely 'priced in'?
    Depends on the definition of 'surprise' - I think that they could easily keep their current 2 MEPs, but struggle to see where they can make any gains.
    Perhaps you have looked at this more closely then I have, but on the face of it a small increase in the Green vote could lead to a number of extra MEPs.

    I think they were 0.8 points from an MEP in the South-West, 0.4 points from an MEP in the North-West and 1.1 points from an MEP in the East of England.

    On the other hand, if you are expecting the number of votes to parties with no MEPs to decline, then it does raise the bar for the number of votes needed for a single MEP - is that what I'm missing from my simplistic look at the 2009 results?
    I was working on the principle that 'wasted' votes to MEP Parties declined - thus raising the bar, as well as not expecting them to 'beat' their vote last time, but merely to beat the current polling numbers (which are some way below what they achieved last time)
    That makes sense - I suppose it may depend on how well the pseudo-UKIP party do.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?

    TBF I think antifrank has already admitted as much on this thread :D

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited May 2014

    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!
    First clause:
    "Cut income tax for hardworking people"

    Second clause:
    "introduce a 50p top rate of tax" - i.e. a tax rise for the highest earners.

    As they want hard working people to have a tax cut, it is obvious that those who will get a tax rise are seen as not hard working. Otherwise they'd be getting a tax cut.

    Simples.

    You could potentially argue that they are getting a tax cut (on their first x of income) - it is just more than outweighed by the tax rise (on their last y of income) that they are getting at the same time. That would clearly be sophistry so no honest and fair minded politician would resort to it however.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2014
    The Labour party can call additional rate tax payers whatever they like - there arent enough of them to swing any constituency out there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    Lennon said:

    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!
    First clause:
    "Cut income tax for hardworking people"

    Second clause:
    "introduce a 50p top rate of tax" - i.e. a tax rise for the highest earners.

    As they want hard working people to have a tax cut, it is obvious that those who will get a tax rise are seen as not hard working. Otherwise they'd be getting a tax cut.

    Simples.
    You could potentially argue that they are getting a tax cut (on their first x of income) - it is just more than outweighed by the tax rise that they are getting at the same time. That would be sophistry so clearly no politician would resort to it.

    Ah, but it says "income tax", which rather implies the full burden. By that logic, they could cut the 10p rate, and introduce a much higher rate a few quid above.

    But perhaps I should not be giving them ideas... ;-)

    Can anyone tell that I've been wading through some rather vague and waffling specifications today?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    there arent enough of them to swing any constituency out there.

    Correct but there are plenty of people who would like to be higher rate tax payers.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    taffys said:


    Correct but there are plenty of people who would like to be higher rate tax payers.

    Yes, I think we can all agree that people who are not additional rate payers but who would like to be are all hard working.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!
    There is an implication that if the cut is for hardworking people the increase is because those aren't hardworking, or somehow don't deserve their money.

    Yes don't appear to be picking up "DK"'s fast enough - there aren't that many left.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Neil said:

    The Labour party can call additional rate tax payers whatever they like - there arent enough of them to swing any constituency out there.

    But there may be enough of them who present the news......

    (I still love the demolition job done on a BBC presenter complaining about the plight of 'typical second home owners', when confronted by an economist in command of the facts.....)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!
    First clause:
    "Cut income tax for hardworking people"

    Second clause:
    "introduce a 50p top rate of tax" - i.e. a tax rise for the highest earners.

    As they want hard working people to have a tax cut, it is obvious that those who will get a tax rise are seen as not hard working. Otherwise they'd be getting a tax cut.

    Simples.

    Notwithstanding that simples is on the verboten list and normally leads to instant disintegration (I like you so I'll make an exception) there's a logic fail on your part there. Nowhere do Labour say that AR payers aren't hardworking.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2014
    taffys said:


    John Redwood discovered lowering the top rate got us an extra 9 billion.

    He discovered no such thing. He discovered that 9 billion more was raised from this group of people (well, it was a published statistic so he didnt really discover it). That is very, very far from saying that lowering the rate raised 9 billion. The independent OBR thought it would cost money. It's impossible to say what effect it actually had (which is one way of knowing that Redwood, as usual, was talking rubbish).
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Van Persie, Rooney, Ferdinand, Evra hard working top rate tax players. Is someone pulling my leg?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!
    First clause:
    "Cut income tax for hardworking people"

    Second clause:
    "introduce a 50p top rate of tax" - i.e. a tax rise for the highest earners.

    As they want hard working people to have a tax cut, it is obvious that those who will get a tax rise are seen as not hard working. Otherwise they'd be getting a tax cut.

    Simples.
    Notwithstanding that simples is on the verboten list and normally leads to instant disintegration (I like you so I'll make an exception) there's a logic fail on your part there. Nowhere do Labour say that AR payers aren't hardworking.

    Please disintegrate me if it'll save me from these *^%%$&^% specs. I swear they've been written by someone who got thrown out of law school for overuse of verbose language. And the diagrams make me want to scratch my eyes out. Trying to tell a blue from a grey line on a black-and-white printout's like watching snooker on a black and white TV. ...

    But I digress.

    As for the relevant topic: it implies they are not, as shown above. If they were, they'd have an income tax cut.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2014
    dr_spyn said:

    Van Persie, Rooney, Ferdinand, Evra hard working top rate tax players. Is someone pulling my leg?

    Moyes will be a very hard working additional rate payer this year! 30k tax-free and presumably 40k into a pension but he'll still benefit to the tune of 200k+ as a result of the reduction in the additional rate!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Are they as hard-working as Higher Rate taxpayers with children who pay marginal rates of ~70% under Ozzy? ;-)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Fat_Steve said:

    BobaFett said:


    Were it even possible to do accurately, you might find it shows you the opposite of what you are expecting...

    I might indeed. I have a feeling that I wouldn't. I would need to figure out a simple metric for "Ed Milliband TV exposure"

    I could frame a low-stakes charity bet of Tuesday/ Wednesday next week You Gov polling being slightly lower for Labour, on average, than today and tomorrow. Interested ? Tenner to Mike's server fund? I say lower.
    Not really because, as the Lab lead is currently at the upper end of the normal range, the bet favours you. In any event it would prove absolutely nothing!

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!
    First clause:
    "Cut income tax for hardworking people"

    Second clause:
    "introduce a 50p top rate of tax" - i.e. a tax rise for the highest earners.

    As they want hard working people to have a tax cut, it is obvious that those who will get a tax rise are seen as not hard working. Otherwise they'd be getting a tax cut.

    Simples.
    Notwithstanding that simples is on the verboten list and normally leads to instant disintegration (I like you so I'll make an exception) there's a logic fail on your part there. Nowhere do Labour say that AR payers aren't hardworking.
    But that is the necessary implication of what they say; if all hard workers are to get a tax cut, it follows that anyone whose tax is unchanged or rises is not a hard worker. Just as if you say that "all smurfs are blue", it follows that anyone who is green cannot be a smurf. The logic fail is yours.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    It d
    Ishmael_X said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!
    First clause:
    "Cut income tax for hardworking people"

    Second clause:
    "introduce a 50p top rate of tax" - i.e. a tax rise for the highest earners.

    As they want hard working people to have a tax cut, it is obvious that those who will get a tax rise are seen as not hard working. Otherwise they'd be getting a tax cut.

    Simples.
    Notwithstanding that simples is on the verboten list and normally leads to instant disintegration (I like you so I'll make an exception) there's a logic fail on your part there. Nowhere do Labour say that AR payers aren't hardworking.
    But that is the necessary implication of what they say; if all hard workers are to get a tax cut, it follows that anyone whose tax is unchanged or rises is not a hard worker. Just as if you say that "all smurfs are blue", it follows that anyone who is green cannot be a smurf. The logic fail is yours.



    It doesn't say all hard working people pay the basic rate.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    London bet now into EVENS from 11/10 . Still taking money imo

    At least it will make back £50 of what I have lost on holding sodding serco shares this week!!
    But your serco shares aren't an investment: they are a key part of your posting name...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good evening, everyone.

    F1: Force India have a new sponsorship deal with Smirnoff. With that and the very good start to the season they're in danger of becoming future title contenders. Not this season, but (depending how 2014 goes) I may be checking Hulkenberg's odds for 2015 when the time comes.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    BobaFett said:

    Are they as hard-working as Higher Rate taxpayers with children who pay marginal rates of ~70% under Ozzy? ;-)

    That's funny!

    There used to be a poster who went.....

    ......on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on...

    .......about that.....

    .....pity it was before your time.....
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!
    First clause:
    "Cut income tax for hardworking people"

    Second clause:
    "introduce a 50p top rate of tax" - i.e. a tax rise for the highest earners.

    As they want hard working people to have a tax cut, it is obvious that those who will get a tax rise are seen as not hard working. Otherwise they'd be getting a tax cut.

    Simples.
    Notwithstanding that simples is on the verboten list and normally leads to instant disintegration (I like you so I'll make an exception) there's a logic fail on your part there. Nowhere do Labour say that AR payers aren't hardworking.
    Please disintegrate me if it'll save me from these *^%%$&^% specs. I swear they've been written by someone who got thrown out of law school for overuse of verbose language. And the diagrams make me want to scratch my eyes out. Trying to tell a blue from a grey line on a black-and-white printout's like watching snooker on a black and white TV. ...

    But I digress.

    As for the relevant topic: it implies they are not, as shown above. If they were, they'd have an income tax cut.

    I don't do mercy disintegrations ;-)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited May 2014
    "English Democrat Candidate: Too Many Gay MPs

    Last month Dr Gasper wrote on her blog: "There are far too many homosexuals in Parliament." She added: "They are only 1.5% of the population, a proportion that justifies about 10 MPs in total, yet there seem to be hundreds of them, all in important positions and giving each other favours. That is a violation of democracy."

    The party backed Dr Gasper, saying she was expressing a personal opinion but was "factually correct"."

    Apparently she was formerly a UKIP candidate, which she presumably left after finding they opposed gay marriage but not gay birth.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27242561
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Are they as hard-working as Higher Rate taxpayers with children who pay marginal rates of ~70% under Ozzy? ;-)

    That's funny!

    There used to be a poster who went.....

    ......on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on...

    .......about that.....

    .....pity it was before your time.....
    Really? How amazing!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    Are they as hard-working as Higher Rate taxpayers with children who pay marginal rates of ~70% under Ozzy? ;-)

    That's funny!

    There used to be a poster who went.....

    ......on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on on and on and on and on and on and on...

    .......about that.....

    .....pity it was before your time.....
    Really? How amazing!
    He'd have bored you too!

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Quincel said:

    "English Democrat Candidate: Too Many Gay MPs

    Last month Dr Gasper wrote on her blog: "There are far too many homosexuals in Parliament." She added: "They are only 1.5% of the population, a proportion that justifies about 10 MPs in total, yet there seem to be hundreds of them, all in important positions and giving each other favours. That is a violation of democracy."

    The party backed Dr Gasper, saying she was expressing a personal opinion but was "factually correct"."

    Apparently she was formerly a UKIP candidate, which she presumably left after finding they opposed gay marriage but not gay birth.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27242561

    She is bonkers, and not "factually correct" at all.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Quincel said:

    there seem to be hundreds of them, all in important positions and giving each other favours

    She appears to have mixed up Westminster and the Vatican.

    What are these favours anyway? Do they lend each other Kylie cds?

    UKIP wont be happy if the homophobic vote is split.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    BobaFett said:

    It d

    Ishmael_X said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    From Labour's latest document:

    Cut income tax for hardworking people through a lower 10p starting tax rate, and introduce a 50p top rate of tax as we pay off the deficit in a fair way
    Do they really think that people paying the 50p top rate of tax are not hard working?
    It doesn't say anywhere that they don't!
    First clause:
    "Cut income tax for hardworking people"

    Second clause:
    "introduce a 50p top rate of tax" - i.e. a tax rise for the highest earners.

    As they want hard working people to have a tax cut, it is obvious that those who will get a tax rise are seen as not hard working. Otherwise they'd be getting a tax cut.

    Simples.
    Notwithstanding that simples is on the verboten list and normally leads to instant disintegration (I like you so I'll make an exception) there's a logic fail on your part there. Nowhere do Labour say that AR payers aren't hardworking.
    But that is the necessary implication of what they say; if all hard workers are to get a tax cut, it follows that anyone whose tax is unchanged or rises is not a hard worker. Just as if you say that "all smurfs are blue", it follows that anyone who is green cannot be a smurf. The logic fail is yours.

    It doesn't say all hard working people pay the basic rate.
    You don't do syllogisms, do you?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Quincel said:

    there seem to be hundreds of [Gay MPs].....The party backed Dr Gasper, saying she was...... "factually correct"."

    I wonder how they did their research?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Neil said:

    Quincel said:

    there seem to be hundreds of them, all in important positions and giving each other favours

    She appears to have mixed up Westminster and the Vatican.

    What are these favours anyway? Do they lend each other Kylie cds?

    UKIP wont be happy if the homophobic vote is split.
    Most gays I know wouldn't need to be lent a Kylie CD
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2014

    Quincel said:

    there seem to be hundreds of [Gay MPs].....The party backed Dr Gasper, saying she was...... "factually correct"."

    I wonder how they did their research?
    It's easy enough to uncover that hundreds of MPs are gay - just check out their mince on BBC Parliament. It's figuring out that precisely 1.5% of the entire population is gay that is the real breakthrough.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Neil said:

    taffys said:


    John Redwood discovered lowering the top rate got us an extra 9 billion.

    He discovered no such thing. He discovered that 9 billion more was raised from this group of people (well, it was a published statistic so he didnt really discover it). That is very, very far from saying that lowering the rate raised 9 billion. The independent OBR thought it would cost money. It's impossible to say what effect it actually had (which is one way of knowing that Redwood, as usual, was talking rubbish).
    Your presentation is a bit disingenous.

    The cost was something like £100m, so in the scheme of things more than offset by the increase in property tax that was introduced to fund it
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    ToryJim said:

    Quincel said:

    "English Democrat Candidate: Too Many Gay MPs

    Last month Dr Gasper wrote on her blog: "There are far too many homosexuals in Parliament." She added: "They are only 1.5% of the population, a proportion that justifies about 10 MPs in total, yet there seem to be hundreds of them, all in important positions and giving each other favours. That is a violation of democracy."

    The party backed Dr Gasper, saying she was expressing a personal opinion but was "factually correct"."

    Apparently she was formerly a UKIP candidate, which she presumably left after finding they opposed gay marriage but not gay birth.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27242561

    She is bonkers, and not "factually correct" at all.
    She was made to stand down as Chairman of UKIP's Oxford Branch, after going off on one of her rants.



  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Quincel said:

    there seem to be hundreds of [Gay MPs].....The party backed Dr Gasper, saying she was...... "factually correct"."

    I wonder how they did their research?
    Like most bigots they just made it up because the facts don't fit their warped worldview
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Charles said:

    Neil said:

    taffys said:


    John Redwood discovered lowering the top rate got us an extra 9 billion.

    He discovered no such thing. He discovered that 9 billion more was raised from this group of people (well, it was a published statistic so he didnt really discover it). That is very, very far from saying that lowering the rate raised 9 billion. The independent OBR thought it would cost money. It's impossible to say what effect it actually had (which is one way of knowing that Redwood, as usual, was talking rubbish).
    Your presentation is a bit disingenous.
    No, it wasnt.
This discussion has been closed.