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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This Survation poll on Farage, taken this morning, seems ou
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This Survation poll on Farage, taken this morning, seems out of line with the latest Euro voting numbers
The poll, for HuffPost is another example of how Survation can get right on top of issues by putting together, carriying out the fieldwork, and producing a report on the findings all within a single day. They’ve become the most agile pollster.
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With 30% Don't knows?
Including areas where UKIP have no chance at all?
That reads like a Batman ending!
But I'll take those numbers all day long
In reality? Not so much...
The Marchessini donations to Ukip were made last year, and the Guardian 28 Jan. says that
"A Ukip spokeswoman said the party no longer had anything to do with Marchessini. She said when Ukip "publicly opposed the crazy female trouser-wearing comments made by Marchessini last year he made it absolutely abundantly clear that he is no longer associated with the party at all".
"Even back then he was adamant that his thoughts were strictly his own. His only connection to Ukip is the fact he is an EU withdrawalist," the spokeswoman said."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/28/ukip-donor-telegraph-advert-sodomy-crime-libby-purves
So C4 News really are scraping the barrel by resurrecting an old story about an ex-donor as if it were news.
the poll shows that if [Hollande] were to find himself in a second-round face-off with Ms Le Pen, he would win by just 54 per cent to 46 per cent.
http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2014/04/springtime-in-paris-fails-to-dispel-clouds-over-hollande/
Proper nutter
Kermit vs Hollande (78:22)
Attila the Hun vs Hollande (62:38)
Saddam Hussein vs Hollande (71:29)
SeanT vs Hollande (12:78)
Hitler vs Hollande (48:52)
Without comparators the poll's a bit meaningless no? And besides, what's you MP ever done for you? Not a lot I doubt. It's no wonder most people didn't know/couldn't be arsed with the question.
Don't tell Pork....
He wrote a well argued letter against the Euro about five years ago. He then bought advertising space and got it printed in a French newspaper.
In English.
I can think of no better way of getting oneself ignored than publishing a letter in France, in English.
The interview with Hamilton is comedy gold.. going round in circles like a one armed swimmer!
KEEP IT UP! Continue this way and on May 22nd UKIP may well have an absolute majority.
------------
On a private note, I had a wonderful meal with my family at the Wolsey, Piccadilly, on my reaching 80.
Because my reading of this is that if they were anything less than 21% then Farage is actually improving UKIP's standing in the polls not reducing it (and of course I say that as someone who does not like him as leader)
Isnt it Friday??
Youre not doing a UKIP stitch up a la the other UKI candidate on the ballot paper and Mike's wrong date palaver are you?
Getting me to turn up a day early then erecting façade of another pub called "Dirty Ducks" next door but one just in case?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10799592/Kiev-has-lost-control-of-eastern-heartland-says-Ukraines-acting-leader.html
... When it comes to the next election, I'm sure Cameron will find a lot of things to brag about to the voters in terms of what he has achieved, and no doubt he will be quite proud of increasing the international aid budget. But I remember the number of times before the election that he said that the deficit would be the number one priority and, well, he's blown that.
Sustainable economic recovery has been the number one priority of Cameron's government and that is what is being delivered.
Within this priority, deficit reduction remains up there with growth, employment and low interest rates as key elements of the overall strategy.
And the government is succeeding on deficit reduction probably more than they are prepared to openly disclose before the 2015 General Election.
Did you know, for example, that the Debt Management Office actually borrowed £21.2 billion more in 2013-14 than it needed to finance the same year's central government's net cash requirement? And this after sales of gilts and t-bills sales were reduced by over £10 bn during the course of the year? This effectively meant the government's financing requirement dropped by over £30 bn from that planned in April 2012 to the outturn at the end of the year.
The £21.2 bn surplus borrowing has been brought forward to the 2014-15 fiscal year, reducing the amount needed to be raised in new debt.
But this bonus is well disguised.
Total financing in 2013-14 was £158.4 bn including £51.5 bn of 'rolled over debt' (e.g. financing to repay gilt stocks which mature during the year). This meant £106.9 bn was new borrowing. Financing was by Gilt Sales (£153.4 bn) and T-Bills etc. (£5.0 bn). NS&I contributions were £3.4 bn against planned net zero sales (netted off before the above figures).
In 2014-15 the 'rolled over debt' rises to £62.2 bn and the overall financing requirement drops to £175.4 bn. Using the same logic as above new borrowing would be £113.2 bn, up from £106.9 bn last year but including £6.5 bn for Network Rail not previously incorporated. So on a like-for-like basis new borrowing drops by a mere £0.2 bn.
Now reduce the 2014-15 new borrowing figure by the £21.2 bn cash surplus from 2013-14 and the new borrowing requirement falls to £92.0 bn. Further reduce it by £13 bn net increase from NS&I (up £10 bn in a year!) and the DMO's actual new borrowing remit falls to £79.0 bn, and total borrowing remit to £141.2 (new borrowing + rolled over debt). Financing is now £127.2 bn in Gilt Sales and £14.0 in net T-Bills etc, a 17.08% fall in actual wholesale market borrowing from the previous year.
[to be continued...]
St George and the DMO debt
[...continued]
A careful analysis will show that George and Danny are having their cake and eating it.
The current arrangements allow government spending to remain stable while actual wholesale borrowing drops by 17%.
Retail borrowing through NS&I increases by £10 bn. Retail borrowing costs the taxpayer slightly less than wholesale borrowing. The fact that the government is relying on an increase in net borrowing through the NS&I this year confirms its expectations that the growing recovery will lead to increased household savings.
None of the above figures include proceeds from asset sales such as the disposal of the government's remaining 25% stake in the Lloyds Bank Group worth £13.4 bn at today's market prices. Nor does it include other additional income from the banking sector for example the payment of a dividend by the RBoS group or accelerated bank loan repayments. All of this would suggest that 2014-15 will generate a similar or larger cash surplus than 2013-14.
All pre-election options are therefore open to George and Danny from outright electoral bribes through to further substantial decreases in actual borrowing (i.e. real deficit reduction).
Lucky and skillful boy is our George.
I think Farage would outpoll most (if not all UKIP candidates). He is by far the best known member of his party, and by far the most articulate. So, I would guess that 21% "who would vote for Farage if he was the UKIP candidate in my constituency" translates to a 16% or so national vote share.
More positively, it points to the fact that Farage *should* win when in South Thurrock or Thanet or wherever he eventually chooses to stand. (As an aside, he should choose now: because that will give him a 12 month campaign.)
move him on to Foreign Secretary like a good chap. Maybe we might get someone useful to replace him.
The traditional justifications for jury trial were as a bulwark of local justice ('putting oneself for good or ill on the country') and avoiding having the facts determined by prosecution-minded judges. The Courts Act 1971 vitiated the first justification, and the second is of far less relevance today. The jury's function is not to attempt to preserve liberty by stepping outside of the law. For liberty outside the law is no liberty at all, but licence...
Time to buy a few greenbacks?
http://order-order.com/2014/04/30/suspended-council-candidate-doesnt-make-national-news/
Just noticed two silly errors which I am too late to correct by editing.
Post 1, para 4, last line should read:
This effectively meant the government's financing requirement dropped by over £30 bn from that planned in April 2012 2013 to the outturn at the end of the year.
Post 1, para 8, first line should read:
In 2014-15 the 'rolled over debt' rises to £62.2 bn and the overall financing requirement drops increases to £175.4 bn.
The job of the Judge is to direct on the points of law. If a jury wishes to ignore that and still find the defendant not guilty then it is their right to do so.
The list stopped short of following the US in naming key figures within Vladimir Putin's circle, or individual businessmen or institutions that might have a more serious economic impact on the Kremlin, underlining continuing European divisions over sanctions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10797108/Ukraine-separatists-push-east-as-US-intercepts-Moscow-orders.html
The most recent Survation poll found that 20% would vote Ukip in a general election.
This seems to show Farage is at least as popular as his party as a whole, possibly a little more so.
What would you do?
http://news.sky.com/story/1252438/mother-was-murdered-for-becoming-westernised
Would the response would be stronger if, as you would presumably advocate, the whole edifice no longer existed?
My fellow Europeans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.
Came with the baronetcy, Mr. Brooke.
Meanwhile another month goes by and no reforms; what does he do all day ?
The verdict in Ponting was perverse. Indeed, the history on this is clear. Where a jury was suspected of having returned a verdict contrary to their oaths, it was open to the aggrieved party to seek a writ of attaint against the jury. If a jury of twenty-four found the original verdict to have been perverse, No English jury has every had a right to ignore lawful directions.
Not seen this 'evidence' but I am sure its as good as the photos and if Russia was supporting the popular uprising what business is it of yours? An unelected government is using their armed forces against their own people.
This jury certainly followed judicial directions:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xi-agPf95M
Thought C4 @MichaelLCrick story awful. Goading old man to air ignorant views to fit anti-Ukip stance. Will only fan flames of #Ukip support.
Dunno, Mr. Brooke.
Whatever he does, it seems to be working.
I am amazed that someone in law would even think to quote any case involving a jury that predates the Bushel's Case of 1670. It is one of the cornerstones of modern legal proceedings and it sets the absolute precedent that no jury can be forced to make a decision one way or the other by anyone including the judge.
No Jury can be punished because of returning a particular verdict - although individual jurors may still be punished if they are shown to have acted improperly.
No Jury can be punished because of returning a particular verdict - although individual jurors may still be punished if they are shown to have acted improperly.
Hear hear. I was also astounded to see no mention of the Quakers affair.
The US didn't overthrow anyone. The democratically elected parliament of Ukraine voted to remove the president via a constitutional supermajority. The reason they removed that president was that he had ordered troops to shoot dozens of unarmed protesters on the streets of Kiev. The only people the Ukrainian government is using their forces against are the armed, largely Russian militants that have illegally stormed and barricaded government buildings.
BREAKING NEWS: UKIP member burps out loud.
50 mins
HT 1-1
(agg 1 - 1)
Atlético Madrid win the tie.
A bit premature to write off Chelsea at half time, even Liverpool know that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyos-M48B8U
Source: BBC ticker
Wow.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2616981/Ukip-course-win-HALF-votes-areas-despite-1-3-voters-saying-Farages-party-racist.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-27232731
yes he's dropped the march of the manufacturers for the congo line of the estate agents.
Mr. Socrates, that reminds me of ITV News at ten. I could be wrong, but isn't (wasn't, if you like) Mercer a former Conservative MP? Because it reported he still was one.
Actually I believe in the English national interest and can't conceive of how it would be in our interest to support a nation that has always acted against our interests, see Enoch Powell on the US and our foreign policy, interfering in a nation well within the sphere of influence of a country who we rely on for our energy needs. Unfortunately morons like you, Osborne and Cameron too, who dominate the establishment are given free reign in a compliant media to spout your nonsense. Thankfully the internet provides an avenue for an increasingly sceptic post Iraq public to see through your lies.
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2014/march/13/russia-annexing-crimea-is-the-cost-of-useu-intervention-in-ukraine.aspx
I cant remember one
I went to the San Siro to watch a semi final 2nd leg between Inter and AC about ten years ago... probably the biggest derby in European Cup I guess
This has escalated to bricks being parcelled up and sent. Apparently a court judgement has set a precedent for such mailings to be lawful.
All a bit silly but this tweetpic did make me laugh:
http://t.co/dkXUPlVlwc
LOL. I hope Number 11 are paying you well.
Bushell's case certainly does not establish that a jury has a right to return a verdict contrary to the evidence or direction of the court. There is no such authority for that heretical proposition.
Paging @SeanT - deemed by OGH Jr less popular than Hitler, Saddam and Attila the Hun (in France).
Farage's bottling of the best chance of an MP confirms what I wrote in Feb: it's all over for UKIP http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ukip-has-a-sellby-date-and-its-may-2015-9131005.html …
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynndirector 5m
@JohnRentoul Hodges disease - you need a holiday John.
Drove to Turin next day to watch Juve bt Real Madrid 3-1
LDs 0 ( late off the mark this year )
Labour 0 ( but they never bother round here )
Conservatives 0 ( one of the horses has a chill )
UKIP 1 ( but then he ran away without stopping)
Conclusion : Mr Zahawi is busy fighting UKIP racism but has decided to cede his consitituency to them
Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams arrested by Northern Ireland police in connection with 1972 Jean McConville murder
He needs to face justice but at the same time we need to move on and he has helped to do this.
which leads neatly onto @Smarmeron - saw your comment about your mate in NI. Those debussing boys would have come straight from NITAT having had all the SOPs drilled into them. Same for everyone: I would put it down to new unit in NI-ism rather than anything peculiar to HDiv.