@chrisshipitv: Boris: leaving the EU would be a "shot in the arm" for Britain. On @itvnews next
@JoelTaylorMetro: Boris has made his boldest challenge to PM on Europe (no surprise). Tories getting engulfed by EU issue again. Really doubt PM is 'relaxed'
Dave needs a speech on Europe to calm all of this down
The genie is well and truly out of the bottle. You would have thought that the Tories might have learnt something from the 1990s.
The Tories can't do discipline, that's one reason why it's such a mistake for Cameron to draw from such a narrow social and class circle, encourages dozens of his backbenchers to believe they haven't a chance of promotion under the chumocracy.
I doubt even the most pessimistic Tory-watcher would have expect this bloody show rearing its head yet again less than two years to a general election. Quite incredible.
What did you expect,the new conservative MP's elected are the most euro sceptic yet and Cameron with the EU debate killing his party should have lanced the EU boil as Quickly as he could,like a referendum in this parliament.
On topic, I will never understand how some areas can be one party states.
Like the uk you mean where
vote labour get social democracy vote lib dem get social democracy vote conservativer get social democracy
is the reality. Then people wonder at the rise of UKIP and the fact that labour isnt picking up the votes in opposition it should do.
Frankly if all parties try and occupy the same political grounds don't be surprised when we frankly cannot tell you apart and just giggle when you say vote for us or suffer five years of (labour/tory/lib dem *delete as applicable according to blind tribal loyalty)
People are voting UKIP because they are sick of the no choice being offered by cloned oxford ppe candidates of all colours
Thanet could well be a UKIP-run local authority, before long.
Would it, thereafter being no different from any other party run council, be a plus or a minus for UKIP in that scenario,? They do tend to push the 'not-like-the-others' brand, and even a simple thing like being no more or less competent on average hits that pretence a little. If they're the same in that, what else?
I believe the Italian five Star movement has some local administrations in its control, I do wonder how different they have ended up being. Anyone know?
The old assumption that only the lunatic fringe believe we should leave the EU really isn't correct, now. Whether or not you approve of Gisela Stuart, Denis Healey, Michael Portillo, or Nigel Lawson, they aren't lunatic fringe.
politicshomeuk David Davis on rise of UKIP: "Simple truth is we’ve got to recognise this. It’s not good enough for main parties to sneer at them." #bbcqt
The old assumption that only the lunatic fringe believe we should leave the EU really isn't correct, now. Whether or not you approve of Gisela Stuart, Denis Healey, Michael Portillo, or Nigel Lawson, they aren't lunatic fringe.
I'd forgotten Gisela, and she's born in Germany. And no she's not the lunatic fringe.
Just to cheer David Moyes following his appointment today as MU manager - Paddy Power have Sir Alex Ferguson on offer at 5/1 second favourite to succeed him as the club's next permanent manager!
On topic, I will never understand how some areas can be one party states.
Like the uk you mean where
vote labour get social democracy vote lib dem get social democracy vote conservativer get social democracy
is the reality. Then people wonder at the rise of UKIP and the fact that labour isnt picking up the votes in opposition it should do.
Frankly if all parties try and occupy the same political grounds don't be surprised when we frankly cannot tell you apart and just giggle when you say vote for us or suffer five years of (labour/tory/lib dem *delete as applicable according to blind tribal loyalty)
People are voting UKIP because they are sick of the no choice being offered by cloned oxford ppe candidates of all colours
Not quite what I was getting at . Our three main parties may, as a result of being polished clones of one another without any coherent and consistent ideologies and staying apart based on miscule policy differences and historical tribalism, be hard to make distinct, but the people of the UK still usually return these different flavours of social democracy when given the choice.
What baffles me is when all the seats in one area are of one flavour of that choice, as simple chance would seem to argue out of 59 seats at least one would prefer a different brand. Heck, in one family you're likely to find one person who prefers Pepsi when everyone else prefers Coca-Cola; I find it hard to grasp the level of loyalty/hatred of the other to make one area such a bastion of support. I'll bet there's plenty that is crap in the area, but even with that it never makes people shift support, only occasionally flirt with options.
One of the great political mysteries of the year is why any Tory backbencher would want an EU referendum bill passed in this parliament, thereby removing a strong argument for UKIP-leaning voters to vote Conservative in 2015.
I can see why Labour or LibDem backbench MPs might think it a good short-term wheeze, but what exactly is the rationale of the Conservative rebels here? Is there any?
@chrisshipitv: Boris: leaving the EU would be a "shot in the arm" for Britain. On @itvnews next
@JoelTaylorMetro: Boris has made his boldest challenge to PM on Europe (no surprise). Tories getting engulfed by EU issue again. Really doubt PM is 'relaxed'
Dave needs a speech on Europe to calm all of this down
The genie is well and truly out of the bottle. You would have thought that the Tories might have learnt something from the 1990s.
The Tories can't do discipline, that's one reason why it's such a mistake for Cameron to draw from such a narrow social and class circle, encourages dozens of his backbenchers to believe they haven't a chance of promotion under the chumocracy.
Not sure this EU exit rhetoric is going to go down well with Tory MPs when they realise they will have to get a visa to visit their place in the Dordogne. The queues at the channel tunnel will be a sight.
Yawn. In practice the country would negotiate a visa waiver programme.
One of the great political mysteries of the year is why any Tory backbencher would want an EU referendum bill passed in this parliament, thereby removing a strong argument for UKIP-leaning voters to vote Conservative in 2015.
The reason is that UKIP voters do not trust Cameron to deliver said referendum.
One of the great political mysteries of the year is why any Tory backbencher would want an EU referendum bill passed in this parliament, thereby removing a strong argument for UKIP-leaning voters to vote Conservative in 2015.
I can see why Labour or LibDem backbench MPs might think it a good short-term wheeze, but what exactly is the rationale of the Conservative rebels here? Is there any?
The old assumption that only the lunatic fringe believe we should leave the EU really isn't correct, now. Whether or not you approve of Gisela Stuart, Denis Healey, Michael Portillo, or Nigel Lawson, they aren't lunatic fringe.
Indeed, the balance has shifted substantially towards leaving given the EU attacks on the City, its failure to address the structural problems of the Euro, and the possible emergence of an anti-business, anti-free-trade Eurozone-dominated EU governing bloc.
One of the great political mysteries of the year is why any Tory backbencher would want an EU referendum bill passed in this parliament, thereby removing a strong argument for UKIP-leaning voters to vote Conservative in 2015.
I can see why Labour or LibDem backbench MPs might think it a good short-term wheeze, but what exactly is the rationale of the Conservative rebels here? Is there any?
Hatred of the leadership has eroded their rationality long ago I suspect. They also don't have the stomach to make that argument and hope they can win back such voters in 2015, thinking they'll lose, so are desperate to prove their credentials now, even at the cost of the present.
Given it will require a hell of a fight, a lot of luck on the economy and an Ed M implosion to get a Conservative government in 2015, such panic is probably not surprising.
One of the great political mysteries of the year is why any Tory backbencher would want an EU referendum bill passed in this parliament, thereby removing a strong argument for UKIP-leaning voters to vote Conservative in 2015.
I can see why Labour or LibDem backbench MPs might think it a good short-term wheeze, but what exactly is the rationale of the Conservative rebels here? Is there any?
Maybe it's Cameron and Osborne crap at politics,
'Keep your friends close and your enemies closer' Cameron kept his enemies on the back benches ;-)
Where did he come from? What school did he go too?
Very smart cutaway collars on his shirt.
University College School in Hampstead. History at Trinity College, Cambridge. PhD on Civic thought in Britain, c.1820– c.1860 at Cambridge.
Parachuted in Stoke Central in 2010 (the CLP was one of those "under special measures") when the sitting MP stood down at last minute due to ill health.
The previous MP was left wing Mark Fisher, son of Tory MP Sir Nigel Thomas Loveridge Fisher (Hitchen 50-55, Subirton 55-83).
Richard, Gisela Stuart's argument was that the other nations of the EU had moved away from us, in terms of creating a centralised EU State, rather than the reverse.
One of the great political mysteries of the year is why any Tory backbencher would want an EU referendum bill passed in this parliament, thereby removing a strong argument for UKIP-leaning voters to vote Conservative in 2015.
I can see why Labour or LibDem backbench MPs might think it a good short-term wheeze, but what exactly is the rationale of the Conservative rebels here? Is there any?
Richard, I thought we had come to the conclusion yesterday that they were worried that Cameron's oratorical skills might be so powerful that they would be fooled into voting to stay in.
Or they don't really care about the EU and are happy to see EdM take us into ever closer political union.
The old assumption that only the lunatic fringe believe we should leave the EU really isn't correct, now. Whether or not you approve of Gisela Stuart, Denis Healey, Michael Portillo, or Nigel Lawson, they aren't lunatic fringe.
This week has been the first time I've felt comfortable voicing my opposition to EU membership in London professional circles, beyond people who knew me very well. Previously people would think it was equivalent to supporting the EDL. Now it's suddenly a respectable opinion.
@Sean_F - I am sure Gisela Stuart is motivated by principled and rational considerations. However, she doesn't have to take into account the electoral impact, which is (for the reasons I've given) 100% negative for Conservative MPs.
@Sean_F - I am sure Gisela Stuart is motivated by principled and rational considerations. However, she doesn't have to take into account the electoral impact, which is (for the reasons I've given) 100% negative for Conservative MPs.
It's utterly bizarre. This isn't hard, surely?
It isn't hard, no. As others have said, a lot of now UKIP voters don't trust Cameron to deliver what he says (or in any case that he cannot win in 2015), so trusting in luring them back with such a promise are largely fruitless, therefore there is no electoral benefit to promising it for those who don't trust him. As such, may as well try something now.
The rationale is contempt for Cameron and Osborne. Whether you think that's justified depends on whether you think their blowing of a 17% lead in the election run up was anything to do with them or not. And whether you think selecting their circle from 1% of society is wise.
Not quite what I was getting at . Our three main parties may, as a result of being polished clones of one another without any coherent and consistent ideologies and staying apart based on miscule policy differences and historical tribalism, be hard to make distinct, but the people of the UK still usually return these different flavours of social democracy when given the choice.
Apologies Kle I realised this wasn't what you were getting at however I had been catching up on posts and was dumbstruck by the arrogances of all parties tribal posters dismissal of the ukip vote and how they would be back at the general election. This just was a late post that it was possible to misinterpret enough to hang my point on.
I have never voted UKIP before, I don't agree with some of what they stand for, probably less in fact than 30% but I certainly don't frankly care about which version of social democracy gets in next. I won't be voting for any of the three wings of the social democrats.
I voted foolishly tory last election in the vain hope that Cameron was actually an old style tory not the metrosexual guardian reading effete urban twat that he appeared to be.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me
Where did he come from? What school did he go too?
Very smart cutaway collars on his shirt.
University College School in Hampstead. History at Trinity College, Cambridge. PhD on Civic thought in Britain, c.1820– c.1860 at Cambridge.
Parachuted in Stoke Central in 2010 (the CLP was one of those "under special measures") when the sitting MP stood down at last minute due to ill health.
The previous MP was left wing Mark Fisher, son of Tory MP Sir Nigel Thomas Loveridge Fisher (Hitchen 50-55, Subirton 55-83).
Not quite what I was getting at . Our three main parties may, as a result of being polished clones of one another without any coherent and consistent ideologies and staying apart based on miscule policy differences and historical tribalism, be hard to make distinct, but the people of the UK still usually return these different flavours of social democracy when given the choice.
This just was a late post that it was possible to misinterpret enough to hang my point on.
I'd condemn that were I not a frequent offender of such a practice
Yawn. In practice the country would negotiate a visa waiver programme.
The only yawn are those who spin the lie that an EU exit would not incur cost or inconveniences.
No one says that.
I have to say that out of all the Europhiles on here in recent weeks only one - BenM - has actually made a proper argument based on policy rather than being rude to eurosceptics or arguing against strawmen.
George Osborne is offering a hair of the dog that bit us The Chancellor George Osborne wants a mini-boom to restore growth, but that’s what got us into this mess
By Jeremy Warner7:52PM BST 09 May 2013
Nowhere is this more apparent than in Britain, where the Chancellor, George Osborne, desperate for some growth, is attempting to engineer some kind of mini-boom ahead of the election two years hence. Plan A on restoring the public finances was all but abandoned some while back, when the Government determined to ignore its debt reduction target in response to slow growth, leaving the deficit firmly stuck at around £120 billion a year.
A Benn-like strategist, splitting the right, a Barber-like Chancellor desperate to arrange a boom.
Jeremy Warner, as ever, is all hit and miss and this article was a definite miss.
There is no evidence at all the Osborne has abandoned his deficit elimination and debt ratio reduction targets. The deficit reduction target remains within Osborne's primary fiscal mandate and the supplementary target of reducing Public Sector Net Debt to GDP ratio is only delayed on a forecast which makes no allowance for sales of bank shares (inter alia).
The phasing of deficit reduction was back loaded in the OBR's March EFO forecast, with the underlying deficit estimated to remain stable at around £120bn for two years. However this OBR forecast was outdated even on the day it was issued.
ONS Public Finance figures show that the underlying deficit fell at its most rapid level last fiscal year in the final quarter (2013 Q1). It subsequently became known that growth over this quarter was 0.3%, an annual rate of 1.2%.
With the OBR forecasting 0.6% for the whole of 2013, half the current and accelerating rate of growth, then it is clear that the OBR will need to make substantial revisions to both their growth and deficit reduction forecasts when they next report in June.
The other important point to make is that the "underlying deficit" is an artificial construct which does not reflect true accrued or cash net borrowing. Due to special interventions (Post Office pension assets etc etc) the actual net amount borrowed last fiscal year was £86 bn not £120 bn. This means real borrowing costs (interest paid on gilts issued) will be far less than the headline deficit of £120 bn implies.
Set against the above is that the final quarter of a fiscal year can deliver unreliable ongoing figures for receipts, expenses and borrowing due to movements of transactions across the year end boundary. It is clear that this happened both from the 'miraculous' close undershoot of all key targets and the comments made by the OBR on March's public finances bulletin.
The problem for sceptics though is that all the indications are that the government finances were better rather than worse than stated in March. Still we need to wait for follow up bulletins before taking this as fact.
In summary, the next OBR EFO is likely to forecast substantial reductions in the 'underlying deficit' over 2013-15 in place of the flat-lining predicted in March, Similarly they will substantially uprate short term growth forecasts in light of current known growth rates.
All this will show that the government under Osborne as Chancellor has not "ignored its debt reduction target" as stated by Warner. As his whole article depends on this assumption it is probably best to disregard it in its entirety.
Long-winded spin.
Want a bet on the core conclusion, Bobajob?
That the OBR will reduce its 'underlying deficit' forecasts for the 2013-14 Fiscal Year by a substantial amount (say > 15%) in its June Economic and Fiscal Outlook and raise its forecast for 2013 (calendar year) growth by at least 50%?
Not quite what I was getting at . Our three main parties may, as a result of being polished clones of one another without any coherent and consistent ideologies and staying apart based on miscule policy differences and historical tribalism, be hard to make distinct, but the people of the UK still usually return these different flavours of social democracy when given the choice.
Apologies Kle I realised this wasn't what you were getting at however I had been catching up on posts and was dumbstruck by the arrogances of all parties tribal posters dismissal of the ukip vote and how they would be back at the general election. This just was a late post that it was possible to misinterpret enough to hang my point on.
I have never voted UKIP before, I don't agree with some of what they stand for, probably less in fact than 30% but I certainly don't frankly care about which version of social democracy gets in next. I won't be voting for any of the three wings of the social democrats.
I voted foolishly tory last election in the vain hope that Cameron was actually an old style tory not the metrosexual guardian reading effete urban twat that he appeared to be.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me
Vote for who you like, but realise that there simply aren't enough hard-right bumpkins to ever make your dreams come true.
Kellner suggests that Miliband may be holding back party support. When voter are asked if they would prefer a Labour government led by Ed Miliband or a Conservative government led by David Cameron, the two options are level pegging: Labour 41%, Conservative 40%.
The polling also shows that by a margin of 50-35 points, voters regard Labour as "nice" – but by a larger, 61-24, margin, also as "dim". Most people consider the Tories both "mean" and "dim"; but more people regard the Tories as "smart" than say the same about Labour.
Nevertheless, Didcot B consists of two separate generation plants, each with two turbines. So, short of a major terrorist incident, you'd only lose around a quarter of capacity. And even if we did have a major terrorist incident, we'd still (at today's capacity utilisation rates) have 8,7GW of spare capacity.
Why is no-one keen to take me up on my bet?
(BTW, if you want to to have enough capacity to meet every eventuality, you will need to pay more for your electricity.)
The hysteria about energy cutouts should be filed in the same draw as swine flu, bird flu and all the f--ing rest of them.
The energy policy of this country is to make energy so expensive people use much less of it aka economic suicide.
The independent candidate is running on an anti-travellers site ticket. It should be a safe Labour hold, and has a large hindu population so not fertile kipper teritory.
More importantly Leicester city have won the home leg of the playoff semis. One game away from Wembley! Foxes never quit.
Yawn. In practice the country would negotiate a visa waiver programme.
The only yawn are those who spin the lie that an EU exit would not incur cost or inconveniences.
There would undoubtedly be some costs and inconveniences. Every change of whatever sort incurs those. But they would be far outweighed by the benefits both in economic terms and in removing the burden of unwanted interference in our lives from the EU.
Those who try to claim we are better off staying in have simply failed utterly to make their case and the longer it goes on the fewer the number of people who are convinced by their facile and misleading arguments.
@chrisshipitv: Boris: leaving the EU would be a "shot in the arm" for Britain. On @itvnews next
@JoelTaylorMetro: Boris has made his boldest challenge to PM on Europe (no surprise). Tories getting engulfed by EU issue again. Really doubt PM is 'relaxed'
Dave needs a speech on Europe to calm all of this down
The genie is well and truly out of the bottle. You would have thought that the Tories might have learnt something from the 1990s.
They learned that to win a leadership election you had to pretend to be eurosceptic.
UKIP are not doing well because of Europe. As Mike Smithson keeps explaining on here, slowly and patiently, very few voters are interested in the EU.
So the tories who think that a promise to hold an in/out referendum---and then to campaign to stay in-- will make much difference to the support for UKIP, haven't been paying attention.
Certainly, there are some issues that membership of the EU makes much worse, notably net immigration. But that is a connection few voters make.
UKIP's support comes from those who feel ignored. They'll only give the govt the benefit of the doubt if they think the govt looks competent, especially on the economy. Issues such as being unable to deport thoroughly undesirable immigrants, or people who appear to be immigrant, fosters a feeling of a lack of competence.
Miliband offers no answers. UKIP's vote will continue to grow, especially if we limit exposure of our less capable supporters.
Note the influence of Asian politics in Oldham . In 2012 the Conservatives had the only Asian candidate . In this byelection Labour had the only Asian candidate .
Where did he come from? What school did he go too?
Very smart cutaway collars on his shirt.
University College School in Hampstead. History at Trinity College, Cambridge. PhD on Civic thought in Britain, c.1820– c.1860 at Cambridge.
Parachuted in Stoke Central in 2010 (the CLP was one of those "under special measures") when the sitting MP stood down at last minute due to ill health.
The previous MP was left wing Mark Fisher, son of Tory MP Sir Nigel Thomas Loveridge Fisher (Hitchen 50-55, Subirton 55-83).
You have missed Westminster School, Andrea!
I like him.
The new face and voice of Labour.
Tristan is quite a competent guy and good speaker. He was parachuted into a safe seat under Mandelson. Unfortunately he is white and male, as it seems that the only way to reach the upper ranks of the Labour party when privately educated seems to be if femalelike Harriet or BME like Chukka. Tis a pity as Tristan has the potential to be another Tony Blair style election winner for them.
@politicshomeuk: David Davis slams the plan to have GPs check immigration status: When we take on immigration policy...it should be fair and civilised #bbcqt
It'll never happen, it's just typical gutless posturing from Cameron and Jeremy Chum
Don't underestimate the contempt much of the Tory Party has for David Cameron. They will never forgive him for failing to get a majority against Brown, going into coalition and then surrounding himself with a clique of chums.
Yet Cameron is much more popular in his own party than the leader of any other party.
Regarding the anonymity of suspects, this is one of the most awful stories I've read, about a teacher falsely accused of sexual offences who could never get a job again:
Not quite what I was getting at . Our three main parties may, as a result of being polished clones of one another without any coherent and consistent ideologies and staying apart based on miscule policy differences and historical tribalism, be hard to make distinct, but the people of the UK still usually return these different flavours of social democracy when given the choice.
Apologies Kle I realised this wasn't what you were getting at however I had been catching up on posts and was dumbstruck by the arrogances of all parties tribal posters dismissal of the ukip vote and how they would be back at the general election. This just was a late post that it was possible to misinterpret enough to hang my point on.
I have never voted UKIP before, I don't agree with some of what they stand for, probably less in fact than 30% but I certainly don't frankly care about which version of social democracy gets in next. I won't be voting for any of the three wings of the social democrats.
I voted foolishly tory last election in the vain hope that Cameron was actually an old style tory not the metrosexual guardian reading effete urban twat that he appeared to be.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me
Vote for who you like, but realise that there simply aren't enough hard-right bumpkins to ever make your dreams come true.
What the hell does hard right have to do with anything? Anyone not a centrist social democrat has no party catering for them. That includes to me soft right and left and hard right and left. The three main parties cater now only to metrosexual urban elite twitterati lovies. That is their demos this is why 40% of the country have given up even bothering to vote.
By the way I am not hard right by any means. I am happy about gay marriage and immigration, dislike the eu and the global warmist agenda. Right or left?
Note the influence of Asian politics in Oldham . In 2012 the Conservatives had the only Asian candidate . In this byelection Labour had the only Asian candidate .
Con had Raja Iqbal in 2010, 11 and 12
Lab had Dilys Fletcher in 2012, Jenny Harrison in 2011 and Hugh McDonald in 2010.
McDonald finished third in a 3 way fight in 2008 when LD Martin Dinoff won.
Jenny Harrison did better than McDonald and Fletcher (59%).
Where did he come from? What school did he go too?
Very smart cutaway collars on his shirt.
University College School in Hampstead. History at Trinity College, Cambridge. PhD on Civic thought in Britain, c.1820– c.1860 at Cambridge.
Parachuted in Stoke Central in 2010 (the CLP was one of those "under special measures") when the sitting MP stood down at last minute due to ill health.
The previous MP was left wing Mark Fisher, son of Tory MP Sir Nigel Thomas Loveridge Fisher (Hitchen 50-55, Subirton 55-83).
You have missed Westminster School, Andrea!
I like him.
The new face and voice of Labour.
Tristan is quite a competent guy and good speaker. He was parachuted into a safe seat under Mandelson. Unfortunately he is white and male, as it seems that the only way to reach the upper ranks of the Labour party when privately educated seems to be if femalelike Harriet or BME like Chukka. Tis a pity as Tristan has the potential to be another Tony Blair style election winner for them.
Not sure about Tristram being a Blair, Dr. Sox.
He comes across as identikit "tim nice but dim" public schoolboy. Somehow Blair managed to avoid that by giving the impression that he was classless and acting as a 'People's Premier'.
@politicshomeuk: David Davis slams the plan to have GPs check immigration status: When we take on immigration policy...it should be fair and civilised #bbcqt
It'll never happen, it's just typical gutless posturing from Cameron and Jeremy Chum
Is Jeremy Chum related to Tristram Chum, tim?
I perhaps ought to add that Ed Balls has made it to the upper ranks despite his expensive private education through being "prolier than thou". I think Tristan is just a little too well spoken and well mannered. Still as Shadow Education mnister, I expect that private schools will not suffer more than trivial persecution in the Labour manifesto when it appears.
But that would have meant I'd have lost my bet with StJohn, occasionally of this parish!
As it was I won - it seemed to me that any party leader would have to be certifiably insane to bring DD back into the Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet, following his bizarre tantrum or flounce or arrogant display or whatever it was. It's one thing to resign on principle because you don't agree with your own leadership's position, but barking mad to resign on principle because you don't agree with the other side's. If he really did care about civil liberties, what in heaven's name was he up to? He'd have been Home Secretary, and thus in the best position of anyone in the world to protect British civil liberties. Utterly barking.
But that would have meant I'd have lost my bet with StJohn, occasionally of this parish!
As it was I won - it seemed to me that any party leader would have to be certifiably insane to bring DD back into the Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet, following his bizarre tantrum or flounce or arrogant display or whatever it was. It's one thing to resign on principle because you don't agree with your own leadership's position, but barking mad to resign on principle because you do but don't agree with the other side's. If he really did care about civil liberties, what in heaven's name was he up to? He'd have been Home Secretary, and thus in the best position of anyone in the world to protect British civil liberties. Utterly barking.
I agree, bizarre decision from Davis - maybe he really wanted to resign from the Chumocracy?
Schooling choices don't matter much in the Labour Party, the Tories rip themselves apart over them. And of course Tory public school leaders don't win majorities any more
And it seems that the only Labour leader who won a majority who was not a public schoolboy was the Grammar School boy Wilson.
I think that Public School boys as Labour leaders do well in that they are very reassuring to middle England voters. That nice Mr Blair with his Fettes background does not frighten the horses.
Labour could do a lot worse than promoting Tristan Hunt. Mandelson recognised his talents.
Still a real, powerful, looming sense of recession here. Lusitanian sadness and melancholy. The mood is overt and quite striking, despite the lovely sun.
Portugal is in deep deep shit. Britain, for all its problems, isn't.
Sean
What on earth are you up to in the Algarve?
I never realised you had a golf handicap.
You do seem to be taking your role as defender of the kippers rather seriously.
craigawoodhouse MT “@SkyNewsBreak: Artemis racing: GB Olympic medallist Andrew 'Bart' Simpson dies after Swedish America's cup catamaran capsizes” Tragic
Note the influence of Asian politics in Oldham . In 2012 the Conservatives had the only Asian candidate . In this byelection Labour had the only Asian candidate .
It's one thing to resign on principle because you don't agree with your own leadership's position
There were rumours at the time that Cameron and Osborne, having lost their nerve, were on the verge of doing a u-turn and supporting the Labour Government over 42 day detention (certain right of centre newspapers were lobbying heavily for support). If that were true then it would explain why an experienced senior member of the Parliamentary Conservative Party did something so unusual.
Note the influence of Asian politics in Oldham . In 2012 the Conservatives had the only Asian candidate . In this byelection Labour had the only Asian candidate .
But the ward was Labour in 2012!
Yes Labour had 1,100 votes in 2012 now with Asian candidate 1,553 Conservative in 2012 Asian candidate 826 votes now 80
Still a real, powerful, looming sense of recession here. Lusitanian sadness and melancholy. The mood is overt and quite striking, despite the lovely sun.
Portugal is in deep deep shit. Britain, for all its problems, isn't.
Sean
What on earth are you up to in the Algarve?
I never realised you had a golf handicap.
You do seem to be taking your role as defender of the kippers rather seriously.
I'm doing a travel article. Autumn in the Algarve. For which purposes I have to be here in Spring, obv.
SeanF is right. There has been a sea-change in attitude towards leaving the EU, in just a few weeks.
I realised this when I had drinks with some lefty mates a few nights ago. One of them went into a quite hysterical europhile rant - really almost deranged - all about how Europe was our only hope, and Nissan would bomb Sunderland flat if we quit, etc etc.
I stared at him quite perplexed. It was the kind of rant you USED to get from eurosceptics. Which says it all.
For the first time ever, the europhiles are worried. REALLY worried: that we might leave. And they are panicking.
But they have left it rather late to persuade us to stay. And still they resist a referendum. For fear of our opinion. They're stuck.
The problem they have is that they've relied so long on simply dismissing their opponents as cranks that they've left themselves incapable of actual debating the issues. Now that leaving is no longer a marginal position, they're screwed. Scheming politicians will keep us out for the next parliament, but post 2020 it's highly likely we'll leave now.
Note the influence of Asian politics in Oldham . In 2012 the Conservatives had the only Asian candidate . In this byelection Labour had the only Asian candidate .
But the ward was Labour in 2012!
Yes Labour had 1,100 votes in 2012 now with Asian candidate 1,553 Conservative in 2012 Asian candidate 826 votes now 80
Labour had 1586 votes in 2011 (higher turnout, 35%) with a white woman. The Tory candidate obviously had personal votes and kept them afloat in 2011-12 However, something else was probably in play in 2012 as there has been a considerable Lab to Con swing since 2011 and the Tory candidate was the same and Labour fielded a white woman both times. Maybe the 2012 woman was too crap...or the council closed some library in the ward.
Do you have pre 2008 results? The 2012 Lab woman was new as LibDems won in 2008. I guess that Labour could have won in 2007 and so the 2011 woman did better because she was an incumbent
But that would have meant I'd have lost my bet with StJohn, occasionally of this parish!
As it was I won - it seemed to me that any party leader would have to be certifiably insane to bring DD back into the Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet, following his bizarre tantrum or flounce or arrogant display or whatever it was. It's one thing to resign on principle because you don't agree with your own leadership's position, but barking mad to resign on principle because you don't agree with the other side's. If he really did care about civil liberties, what in heaven's name was he up to? He'd have been Home Secretary, and thus in the best position of anyone in the world to protect British civil liberties. Utterly barking.
I was DD's most trenchant supporter on PB.com when he made his 'stand for our ancient rights'. Alas, his subsequent antics - boorish homophobic rants in London bars, snipes at his leadership to Michael Crick by canteen service hatches etc. - made me feel I'd been duped. Poor old DD - a political show pony lacking judgement.
Comments
"Illegitimi non carborundum"
Oh dear, Bobajob, you are paying far too much attention to tim.
If you want to learn about the use of house price inflation to create artificial economic booms you need do no more than consult the following table: Gordon is your master.
Apropos of nothing.
vote labour get social democracy
vote lib dem get social democracy
vote conservativer get social democracy
is the reality. Then people wonder at the rise of UKIP and the fact that labour isnt picking up the votes in opposition it should do.
Frankly if all parties try and occupy the same political grounds don't be surprised when we frankly cannot tell you apart and just giggle when you say vote for us or suffer five years of (labour/tory/lib dem *delete as applicable according to blind tribal loyalty)
People are voting UKIP because they are sick of the no choice being offered by cloned oxford ppe candidates of all colours
Would it, thereafter being no different from any other party run council, be a plus or a minus for UKIP in that scenario,? They do tend to push the 'not-like-the-others' brand, and even a simple thing like being no more or less competent on average hits that pretence a little. If they're the same in that, what else?
I believe the Italian five Star movement has some local administrations in its control, I do wonder how different they have ended up being. Anyone know?
If you want to learn about the use of house price inflation to create artificial economic booms you need do no more than consult the following table: Gordon is your master.
Apropos of nothing.
Nothing will come of nothing. Speak yet again.
http://fullfact.org/articles/the_rise_of_ukip_local_elections-28907
Another pop at Cameron.
Just to cheer David Moyes following his appointment today as MU manager - Paddy Power have Sir Alex Ferguson on offer at 5/1 second favourite to succeed him as the club's next permanent manager!
What baffles me is when all the seats in one area are of one flavour of that choice, as simple chance would seem to argue out of 59 seats at least one would prefer a different brand. Heck, in one family you're likely to find one person who prefers Pepsi when everyone else prefers Coca-Cola; I find it hard to grasp the level of loyalty/hatred of the other to make one area such a bastion of support. I'll bet there's plenty that is crap in the area, but even with that it never makes people shift support, only occasionally flirt with options.
I can see why Labour or LibDem backbench MPs might think it a good short-term wheeze, but what exactly is the rationale of the Conservative rebels here? Is there any?
Who is this fpp called Tristram?
Where did he come from? What school did he go too?
Very smart cutaway collars on his shirt.
Given it will require a hell of a fight, a lot of luck on the economy and an Ed M implosion to get a Conservative government in 2015, such panic is probably not surprising.
'Keep your friends close and your enemies closer' Cameron kept his enemies on the back benches ;-)
History at Trinity College, Cambridge.
PhD on Civic thought in Britain, c.1820– c.1860 at Cambridge.
Parachuted in Stoke Central in 2010 (the CLP was one of those "under special measures") when the sitting MP stood down at last minute due to ill health.
The previous MP was left wing Mark Fisher, son of Tory MP Sir Nigel Thomas Loveridge Fisher (Hitchen 50-55, Subirton 55-83).
Richard, I thought we had come to the conclusion yesterday that they were worried that Cameron's oratorical skills might be so powerful that they would be fooled into voting to stay in.
Or they don't really care about the EU and are happy to see EdM take us into ever closer political union.
It's utterly bizarre. This isn't hard, surely?
Did you catch my questions on Tristram Hunt, tim?
Leicester: £9,829 per annum
Barking:£10,006.
Thanet: £4,570
Oldham: £8,950
I have never voted UKIP before, I don't agree with some of what they stand for, probably less in fact than 30% but I certainly don't frankly care about which version of social democracy gets in next. I won't be voting for any of the three wings of the social democrats.
I voted foolishly tory last election in the vain hope that Cameron was actually an old style tory not the metrosexual guardian reading effete urban twat that he appeared to be.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me
I like him.
The new face and voice of Labour.
I have to say that out of all the Europhiles on here in recent weeks only one - BenM - has actually made a proper argument based on policy rather than being rude to eurosceptics or arguing against strawmen.
That the OBR will reduce its 'underlying deficit' forecasts for the 2013-14 Fiscal Year by a substantial amount (say > 15%) in its June Economic and Fiscal Outlook and raise its forecast for 2013 (calendar year) growth by at least 50%?
http://cdn.spectator.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/5735018-1.jpg
http://www.leicester.gov.uk/elections/
The independent candidate is running on an anti-travellers site ticket. It should be a safe Labour hold, and has a large hindu population so not fertile kipper teritory.
More importantly Leicester city have won the home leg of the playoff semis. One game away from Wembley! Foxes never quit.
Those who try to claim we are better off staying in have simply failed utterly to make their case and the longer it goes on the fewer the number of people who are convinced by their facile and misleading arguments.
ianbirrell Brilliant (& suprising) attack by David Davis on govt plans to make doctors check legality of migrants. Shocking the LibDem backs it #bbcqt
Like I said - keep your enemies close.
Chauhan Z (LAB) 1,553
Fletcher D (UKIP) 412
Dawson K (L DEM) 96
Allsopp N (CON) 80
Meadowcroft M (GRE) 55
Tonight’s YouGov CAUTION: I'm not convinced that numbers Tweeted by QT Lord Ashcroft and repeated by me are correct.
UKIP 18.76
LD 4.37
Con 3.64
Green 2.5%
So the tories who think that a promise to hold an in/out referendum---and then to campaign to stay in-- will make much difference to the support for UKIP, haven't been paying attention.
Certainly, there are some issues that membership of the EU makes much worse, notably net immigration. But that is a connection few voters make.
UKIP's support comes from those who feel ignored. They'll only give the govt the benefit of the doubt if they think the govt looks competent, especially on the economy. Issues such as being unable to deport thoroughly undesirable immigrants, or people who appear to be immigrant, fosters a feeling of a lack of competence.
Miliband offers no answers. UKIP's vote will continue to grow, especially if we limit exposure of our less capable supporters.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/05/03/bc-cyber-stalking.html
By the way I am not hard right by any means. I am happy about gay marriage and immigration, dislike the eu and the global warmist agenda. Right or left?
Lab had Dilys Fletcher in 2012, Jenny Harrison in 2011 and Hugh McDonald in 2010.
McDonald finished third in a 3 way fight in 2008 when LD Martin Dinoff won.
Jenny Harrison did better than McDonald and Fletcher (59%).
He comes across as identikit "tim nice but dim" public schoolboy. Somehow Blair managed to avoid that by giving the impression that he was classless and acting as a 'People's Premier'.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10047646/AandE-units-have-become-like-warzones-top-doctor-warns.html
Lab 1190
Con 562
Ind 352
Lib Dem 212
Soc 165
Lab 47.9%
Con 22.65%
Ind 14.18%
LD 8.54%
Soc 6.65%
As it was I won - it seemed to me that any party leader would have to be certifiably insane to bring DD back into the Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet, following his bizarre tantrum or flounce or arrogant display or whatever it was. It's one thing to resign on principle because you don't agree with your own leadership's position, but barking mad to resign on principle because you don't agree with the other side's. If he really did care about civil liberties, what in heaven's name was he up to? He'd have been Home Secretary, and thus in the best position of anyone in the world to protect British civil liberties. Utterly barking.
edit: pretty sure that's wrong but it's late
I think that Public School boys as Labour leaders do well in that they are very reassuring to middle England voters. That nice Mr Blair with his Fettes background does not frighten the horses.
Labour could do a lot worse than promoting Tristan Hunt. Mandelson recognised his talents.
What on earth are you up to in the Algarve?
I never realised you had a golf handicap.
You do seem to be taking your role as defender of the kippers rather seriously.
It's one thing to resign on principle because you don't agree with your own leadership's position
There were rumours at the time that Cameron and Osborne, having lost their nerve, were on the verge of doing a u-turn and supporting the Labour Government over 42 day detention (certain right of centre newspapers were lobbying heavily for support). If that were true then it would explain why an experienced senior member of the Parliamentary Conservative Party did something so unusual.
UKIP 699
Con 526
Lab 352
Ind 112
LibDem 32
UKIP 40.6%
Con 30.5%
Lab 20.4%
Ind 6.5%
LD 1.8%
Ahammad LAB 1555
UKIP: 466
Con: 284
LibDem: 78
BNP: 37
Total electorate: 8185. Votes cast: 2435. Turn-Out: 29.75%
Lab 64.25
UKIP 19.25
Con 11.73
LD 3.22
BNP 1.52
Conservative in 2012 Asian candidate 826 votes now 80
Labour had 1586 votes in 2011 (higher turnout, 35%) with a white woman.
The Tory candidate obviously had personal votes and kept them afloat in 2011-12
However, something else was probably in play in 2012 as there has been a considerable Lab to Con swing since 2011 and the Tory candidate was the same and Labour fielded a white woman both times. Maybe the 2012 woman was too crap...or the council closed some library in the ward.
Do you have pre 2008 results? The 2012 Lab woman was new as LibDems won in 2008. I guess that Labour could have won in 2007 and so the 2011 woman did better because she was an incumbent
There have been some new housing estates built on Brownfield sites there as well as a more traditional WWC population.
Its not enough to win the Parliamentary seat though!