The biggest shock around the world would be if we have to redesign the Union Flag/Union Jack....
We won't.....unless we want to......
However, the College of Arms has told ITV News that there are no plans to change the Union Flag if Scotland becomes an independent state.
The authority for official flags for the UK and the Commonwealth said the Queen would remain the head of state in an independent Scotland, and therefore the Union Flag would not be affected.
Both Benedict Brogan and Matthew Parris have now said that Cameron will resign in the event of a YES.
These are not peripheral journos, they are two of the most respected Tory pundits in the press, both very close to the centre of the party.
If Scotland votes to secede, Cameron will go.
Easterross may know more about Scotland than me, but I know more about English Toryism and the Cameroons.
He will resign.
If it became known north of the border that a YES vote would lead to DC's resignation then that would be a further boost to YES.
Sean - I've yet to comprehend your "YES is a disaster for LAB" argument. Sure the abolition what is currently a LAB contingent of 41 would make the red task harder in a general election - but not that much harder. Because the overall number of Commons seats would be down by 59 the threshold for a majority would be reduced by 30.
Without Scotland EdM would need to make just 12 additional gains in rUK to win a majority.
Please dont take this as me being aggressive, I'm not trying to have a big row etc
But don't you think that if Sean is right and Cameron goes in the event of Yes winning, A eurosceptic Conservative leader would win back a lot of UKIP votes, or possibly even form an electoral pact with UKIP?
The current polls would give such an alliance a great chance of a majority
*snip*
But it's all a moot point, because Cameron won't, and shouldn't go ...
As I, and I think most Englishmen, will see it, If the Scots vote for independence that will be their decision and no reason for Cameron to resign. What I would expect to be a resigning matter is if he does an about turn in the subsequent negotiations and, for example, concedes a currency union.
Exactly - Cameron agreed to a referendum and has delivered one. Were he to concede a currency union on the other hand (and the Scots daft enough to accept it on the likely terms) then that would be a volte-face orders of magnitude greater than what some believe he did or didn't promise over Lisbon.
Most voters won't even know what he said about it.
Pre-Tri-partite announcement, rUK voters were marginally in favour of a currency union....post, they are 2:1 against......
Apart from Cameron not resigning and putting the party into turmoil six months before a GE being foolish, he is not a sacker or resigner as a person. SeanT is simply wrong.
If however there was a leadership election in the Conservative party all the leading candidates including BoJo have positions on Europe near identical to Cameron, so a change of leader would not mean a change of policy. Cameron remains popular within his party, those wanting him to resign on some obscure point of principle should have a little more bromide in their tea.
Both Benedict Brogan and Matthew Parris have now said that Cameron will resign in the event of a YES.
These are not peripheral journos, they are two of the most respected Tory pundits in the press, both very close to the centre of the party.
If Scotland votes to secede, Cameron will go.
Easterross may know more about Scotland than me, but I know more about English Toryism and the Cameroons.
He will resign.
If it became known north of the border that a YES vote would lead to DC's resignation then that would be a further boost to YES.
Sean - I've yet to comprehend your "YES is a disaster for LAB" argument. Sure the abolition what is currently a LAB contingent of 41 would make the red task harder in a general election - but not that much harder. Because the overall number of Commons seats would be down by 59 the threshold for a majority would be reduced by 30.
Without Scotland EdM would need to make just 12 additional gains in rUK to win a majority.
Please dont take this as me being aggressive, I'm not trying to have a big row etc
But don't you think that if Sean is right and Cameron goes in the event of Yes winning, A eurosceptic Conservative leader would win back a lot of UKIP votes, or possibly even form an electoral pact with UKIP?
The current polls would give such an alliance a great chance of a majority
But would a more openly eurosceptic Conservative leader lose votes elsewhere? And would he be able to command the parliamentary party with such views, especially with an electoral pact?
It's perfectly possible for any new leader to have similar views on Europe to Cameron, or even be slightly more Europhilic.
Besides, UKIP is about more than being eurosceptic, isn't it? Would a slightly more eurosceptic leader satisfy those other issues that matter to some, if not all, UKIP supporters? Doesn't a large part of UKIP support come from the None-of-the-Above brigade?
It's a difficult one to guess. And without a pact, it will be easy for UKIP to shift to counter any moves made by the Conservative party, which is handcuffed by the fact that they're in power.
But it's all a moot point, because Cameron won't, and shouldn't go ...
Thinking off the top of my head, the big beasts in the Labour party from the mid 30s to mid 80s were politicians such as Attlee, Bevin, Bevan, Morrison, Gaitskell, Castle, Healey, Benn and Kinnock, not a Scot among them.
A remarkable list, not least because you omit two Labour Prime Ministers in the period you have chosen. Are you sure that, say, Castle, was a bigger Labour beast then Wilson?
Thinking off the top of my head, the big beasts in the Labour party from the mid 30s to mid 80s were politicians such as Attlee, Bevin, Bevan, Morrison, Gaitskell, Wilson, Callaghan, Castle, Healey, Benn and Kinnock, not a Scot among them.
At this point I think it makes sense to assume nothing re Scotland - lots of talk from those who ought to know better - about a result which is by no means certain. The same as talk about the GE as if it's all done and dusted. There's many a slip.. yaddayaddayadda.
Apart from Cameron not resigning and putting the party into turmoil six months before a GE being foolish, he is not a sacker or resigner as a person. SeanT is simply wrong.
If however there was a leadership election in the Conservative party all the leading candidates including BoJo have positions on Europe near identical to Cameron, so a change of leader would not mean a change of policy.
Not all candidates. I think Mr Gove, and Mr Hammond have both said they favour leaving the EU. I assume Mr Paterson would also be a leave EU type.
In fact for the UK the Empire was not a profitable business. Certain colonies at certain times made money, mostly for private individuals and businesses, but the costs of running and protecting the whole thing fell on the British taxpayer and, by the early 20th century, greatly exceeded the largely untaxed profits made.
I wasn't aware of this. Are you sure?
For instance around 1913, UK central government total expenditure was about 8% UK GDP. This included all of the UK taxpayer's contribution to running the Empire.
Empire(ex-uk) gdp would surely have to have been almost insignificant to outweigh those (relatively) small costs.
I have been travelling a fair bit recently - Japan, Canada and currently in Boston. Very few people realise that there is a referendum, but when they find out and we then discuss it they find it very hard to get their heads round the fact that the UK as they know it is very possibly going to disappear in the very near future. My guess is that this probably reflects thinking inside governments as well. Come 19th September, there is going to be a lot of surprise not only domestically, but also internationally. Those who do not believe that the break-up of a 300 year old country is not a very big deal are going to be in for a very ride awakening when it happens.
Give us a shout next time you come to Japan, SO, I'll buy you a pint (assuming you partake), or something tasty..
Hurst Callaghan was Welsh, Ramsay Macdonald was Labour's first PM and still in office in the early 30s and he was a Scot. The Tories during that period had Home, a Scot who was PM in 1964 and foreign secretary in the early 70s
Rod Don't forget Labour got a net boost in Scotland for Brown, a native son. On present polls, Scotland is the only region in the UK showing a swing from Labour to the Tories since 2010
@HYUFD Looks like a photo of Chile's Military Junta - Leigh (Airforce), Pinochet and Admiral Merino.
However, times have changed in S America, a positive result of the Falklands war, was the collapse of authoritarian military regimes. Argentina's military defeat in 1982, has kept its armed forces out of power for the longest period in its history which may be no bad thing.
Moniker Glasgow is one of only 2 regions in Scotland with a clear YES majority in the polls, the other is the Highlands. http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/Scotsman_april_2014.pdf Glasgow has a population of 595,000, yet even the Glasgow urban area only has a population of 1,750,000, less than half the total Scottish population of 5,313,600
Moniker Glasgow is one of only 2 regions in Scotland with a clear YES majority in the polls, the other is the Highlands. http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/Scotsman_april_2014.pdf Glasgow has a population of 595,000, yet even the Glasgow urban area only has a population of 1,750,000, less than half the total Scottish population of 5,313,600
I'm working on the basis that there are about 473,000 voters in Glasgow, including 16-17 year olds.
MalcolmG Quebec voted only 51-49 against independence from Canada in 1995, yet 19 years later has had no further referendum
hyfud, we are not Quebec, it will continue unless blocked by Westminster , which will then lead to real opposition. Edit. It is certain now that at worst it will be close , that high 40's% are not going to go away in the miracle event that it is NO.
malcolmg Scotland is in some respects more united with England than Quebec is with Canada, after all most Scots speak English while most Quebecois speak French (and indeed French speakers voted for independence). But the similarities are there, indeed memories of Montcalm's defeat to the Hanoverians are as strong as Bonnie Prince Charlie's. Indeed, the PQ (Quebec's version of the SNP) has just been turfed from office after demanding yet another independence referendum
hyfud, we are not Quebec, it will continue unless blocked by Westminster , which will then lead to real opposition.
Assuming a "No" vote in September, the only way there will be a further referendum is by the direction, or with the consent of the Westminster Parliament. Paragraph 5A of schedule 5 to the Scotland Act 1998 (as inserted by article 3 of the Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013 SI 2013/242) applies only to one referendum, held before 31 December 2014.
hyfud, we are not Quebec, it will continue unless blocked by Westminster , which will then lead to real opposition.
Assuming a "No" vote in September, the only way there will be a further referendum is by the direction, or with the consent of the Westminster Parliament. Paragraph 5A of schedule 5 to the Scotland Act 1998 (as inserted by article 3 of the Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013 SI 2013/242) applies only to one referendum, held before 31 December 2014.
I am well aware of that but it will be very interesting in the slim chance it is NO, people will not accept the status quo afterwards. I am confident it will be YES and so not an issue, but big problems if a close NO.
Thinking off the top of my head, the big beasts in the Labour party from the mid 30s to mid 80s were politicians such as Attlee, Bevin, Bevan, Morrison, Gaitskell, Wilson, Callaghan, Castle, Healey, Benn and Kinnock, not a Scot among them.
Goodness you missed 3 of Labour's greatest figures Ramsay MacDonald Tom Johnston Manny Shinwell
MacDonald was Labour's 1st PM Johnston who was the inspiration for many Labour figures including John Smith and Donald Dewar and was expected to become Labour leader post war but retired Shinwell the great rebel along with Jennie Lee
Mr. K, there are many idiots online. At least he didn't accuse white people of trying to divide and rule.
Mr. G, hmm. People have a right to choose, and for that choice to be respected. It can't bind Scotland for all time, either way, but must for a while at least otherwise you'd be copying the EU of repeatedly asking the question until the 'right' answer is delivered.
However, I'm not so sure a close No would be so bad. If people accept it they won't give the SNP such a strong result in Holyrood, and if they don't the SNP will again command an overall majority and ask for another referendum (which would be granted).
MalcolmG Why? Salmond knew the score, the referendum has been organised at vast expense, if Yes fail to win tough. If you lose the world cup final 2-1 in extra time you can't demand a replay can you! In any case, only ICM has had YES in the late forties, most polls have it around 35-45%
MalcolmG Why? Salmond knew the score, the referendum has been organised at vast expense, if Yes fail to win tough. If you lose the world cup final 2-1 in extra time you can't demand a replay can you! In any case, only ICM has had YES in the late forties, most polls have it around 35-45%
Nothing to do with Salmond, if it is NO and as expected the unionists do nothing on real powers transfer the people will demand it.
MalcolmG If it is as tight as 51-49 then Cameron and Clegg will almost certainly offer devomax, but they are not obliged to. The ballot paper question is a straight 'Do you want Scotland to be independent Yes or No' not 'Do you want Scotland to be independent if hypothetically Westminster does not offer devomax straight after this referendum!'
MorrisDancer It is already moving that way, the original EEC members plus Spain are forming the core of the EU led by Germany while a non-Euro outer core has also emerged comprised of Scandinavia and the Eastern European nations, led by the UK
Enjoyable Nottingham Euro-hustings with Bill Newton Dunn (LD) and the lead Green candidate. About 60 voters there. Neither Tories nor UKIP could find anyone to attend - their active people are very thin on the ground around here.
MorrisDancer It is already moving that way, the original EEC members plus Spain are forming the core of the EU led by Germany while a non-Euro outer core has also emerged comprised of Scandinavia and the Eastern European nations, led by the UK
Next Indeed, although the likes of FN and Afd in Germany may tip even the Euro core in a more sceptic direction
FN and AfD couldn't be more different. AfD is a mildly Eurosceptic (by UK strandards), pro-business party, ran by the former head of IBM Germany.
FN, on the other hand, is a fairly nasty bunch of intolerant thugs, who have more in common with the BNP or the National Front in the UK (or, frankly, the Nazi Party in the 1930s) than with UKIP.
Next Indeed, although the likes of FN and Afd in Germany may tip even the Euro core in a more sceptic direction
Worth noting that the Constitutional Court has ruled the 5% threshold illegal in Germany for Euro-elections, so smaller parties like the AfD (sceptics) and FDP (philes) will get a few seats. Even the Animals Party (animal protection sister party to the quite successful Dutch one - there is a London list too) thinks they may get a seat or two.
The sceptic problem in the EP is that they are badly split - UKIP won't talk to the FN (good on them), the FN won't talk to Jobbik, I think, not sure even Jobbik would talk to Golden Dawn, and the AfD sniff at all of them.
MorrisDancer It is already moving that way, the original EEC members plus Spain are forming the core of the EU led by Germany while a non-Euro outer core has also emerged comprised of Scandinavia and the Eastern European nations, led by the UK
So it's going to be Germany v UK in Europe again.
What could go wrong?
Why would you think they're against each other? Whether we are in the EU, the EEA, or outside altogether, Germany will be an important trading partner for us, and shares many of the same values and beliefs we do.
I think the point is that (assuming the EU has an 'inner' and 'outer' core) then Britain will be the natural leader of the non-Eurozone nations, and Germany of the Eurozone ones.
But even inside there it's a bit more complex than that: anglophile (and US friendly) Poland is much more likely to stand beside Britain, than it is to back up Italy or France for example.
I think the issue of Europe has effectively split the German liberal (with a small 'l') party. The AfD is - in many ways - a Eurosceptic successor to the FDP.
rcs1000 Not so sure, Marine Le Pen has moderated FN's tone on issues like homosexuality and both FN and Afd are clearly Eurosceptic. A recent poll had her almost neck and neck with Hollande if se faced him in the final round of the next presidential election. She does not look like an 'intolerant thug'. UKIPs' latest posters are also hardly reticent on immigration. Agree we can keep friendly links with Germany as we lead different blocks, and Poland is not in the Euro. If Afd replaces the FDP that will change the CDU's potential coalition partners too
Hurst Callaghan was Welsh, Ramsay Macdonald was Labour's first PM and still in office in the early 30s and he was a Scot. The Tories during that period had Home, a Scot who was PM in 1964 and foreign secretary in the early 70s
Callaghan Welsh? That's a new one. Born in Pompey (of Irish ancestry I would have thought...)
Comments
However, the College of Arms has told ITV News that there are no plans to change the Union Flag if Scotland becomes an independent state.
The authority for official flags for the UK and the Commonwealth said the Queen would remain the head of state in an independent Scotland, and therefore the Union Flag would not be affected.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-11-26/no-plans-to-change-union-flag/
We can carry on calling ourselves the 'United Kingdom' too if we want to......
If however there was a leadership election in the Conservative party all the leading candidates including BoJo have positions on Europe near identical to Cameron, so a change of leader would not mean a change of policy. Cameron remains popular within his party, those wanting him to resign on some obscure point of principle should have a little more bromide in their tea.
fo
The current UKPR polling average indicates a swing of about 5.6%.
RIP.
For instance around 1913, UK central government total expenditure was about 8% UK GDP. This included all of the UK taxpayer's contribution to running the Empire.
Empire(ex-uk) gdp would surely have to have been almost insignificant to outweigh those (relatively) small costs.
https://twitter.com/MinaIlhan/status/455066808236511232
However, times have changed in S America, a positive result of the Falklands war, was the collapse of authoritarian military regimes. Argentina's military defeat in 1982, has kept its armed forces out of power for the longest period in its history which may be no bad thing.
There was some criticism of the Electoral Commission over the I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP Party, and some more here:
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-04-26/election-body-apologises-for-allowing-lee-rigby-slogan/
Edit. It is certain now that at worst it will be close , that high 40's% are not going to go away in the miracle event that it is NO.
twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Is that right? @DowHeater @Baggins1971 @juliusmandrake @Dartherino4 @thebigG316 @LadyMercia pic.twitter.com/7qQnT2w7zE
— The Matriot (@DICS131294) April 23, 2014Ramsay MacDonald
Tom Johnston
Manny Shinwell
MacDonald was Labour's 1st PM
Johnston who was the inspiration for many Labour figures including John Smith and Donald Dewar and was expected to become Labour leader post war but retired
Shinwell the great rebel along with Jennie Lee
Mr. G, hmm. People have a right to choose, and for that choice to be respected. It can't bind Scotland for all time, either way, but must for a while at least otherwise you'd be copying the EU of repeatedly asking the question until the 'right' answer is delivered.
However, I'm not so sure a close No would be so bad. If people accept it they won't give the SNP such a strong result in Holyrood, and if they don't the SNP will again command an overall majority and ask for another referendum (which would be granted).
The euro's bloody deranged, so the whole thing may implode before that.
As Machiavelli wrote, a confederation can work with 4-6 members at most. Beyond that influence of each nation is diminished to an undesirable level.
Glasgow Metro Population: 2,850,000
Around 3 million of 5 million.
Total domination.
What could go wrong?
Louise Haigh http://www.louisehaigh.org.uk/
Jane East
Sally Gimson (Camden Cllr)
Liz Pemberton (works for Meg Munn)
Batley and Spen CLP was shortlisting today too
FN, on the other hand, is a fairly nasty bunch of intolerant thugs, who have more in common with the BNP or the National Front in the UK (or, frankly, the Nazi Party in the 1930s) than with UKIP.
The sceptic problem in the EP is that they are badly split - UKIP won't talk to the FN (good on them), the FN won't talk to Jobbik, I think, not sure even Jobbik would talk to Golden Dawn, and the AfD sniff at all of them.
I think the point is that (assuming the EU has an 'inner' and 'outer' core) then Britain will be the natural leader of the non-Eurozone nations, and Germany of the Eurozone ones.
But even inside there it's a bit more complex than that: anglophile (and US friendly) Poland is much more likely to stand beside Britain, than it is to back up Italy or France for example.
I think the issue of Europe has effectively split the German liberal (with a small 'l') party. The AfD is - in many ways - a Eurosceptic successor to the FDP.
Sleazy broken Labour on the slide.
Toby Helm @tobyhelm 1m
Lab lead back down to 2% in Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 34 (-2), Tories 32 (+2), Ukip 18 (n/c), Lib Dems 7 (n/c).Ukip sure are resilient.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27172043
MacDonald ceased to be Labour in August 1931.
This appears to be based on official ONS definitions