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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,815
    As an aside, there's a fair chance of Farage scoring more than 80% of the vote, perhaps even 90%, given the competition he is up against. If the turnout is low enough it's something that would make the exercise look even more ridiculous, I think.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 613
    Andy_JS said:

    It was 20 degrees last night and yet it didn't bother me. (No AC).

    Maybe you get acclimatised to hot weather after a certain time.

    Of course. I have this more or less from May to October.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,651
    viewcode said:
    Good afternoon

    Yes I read that but seems they say nothing will change so what is the point ?

    And for clarification who is Lorraine as I have never heard of her?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,602

    viewcode said:
    Good afternoon

    Yes I read that but seems they say nothing will change so what is the point ?

    And for clarification who is Lorraine as I have never heard of her?
    Anything good on Sky this afternoon, Big G?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,602

    As an aside, there's a fair chance of Farage scoring more than 80% of the vote, perhaps even 90%, given the competition he is up against. If the turnout is low enough it's something that would make the exercise look even more ridiculous, I think.

    I think so too but you have to wonder given the resources they are (allegedly) diverting there away from the Greater Manchester vote. There may be concern about an embarrassingly high protest vote. Or maybe he's lonely. Who knows.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,754

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Reform UK have asked activists to travel to Clacton to help Nigel Farage instead of campaigning in the Manchester Mayor election

    "We now need all of our fantastic activists, branch officers and councillors to come and help us in Clacton"

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2075157897902797029?s=20

    They really are on the back foot... Farage has totally ballsed this up, hasn't he?
    Do you really think he hadn't considered the possibility the main parties wouldn't contest the seat?
    Yep. I don’t think he considered that at all. I think he made a hasty and rash decision
    He told the Mail he had not considered the possibility.

    So one thing I genuinely can't get my head round. What do Reform think a "win" in Clacton actually looks like? They're obviously worried, which is why they're pulling out of Manchester. But worried about what? Falling below what benchmark?
    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2075219293222944793
    The main challenge will be turnout (though postal voting should help with that). You can construct a series of benchmarks, ordered from most triumphal for Farage to most embarrassing.

    Increasing the absolute number of votes for Farage. In 2024 Farage received 21,225 votes. If he receives more votes than that in the by-election it would be a genuine triumph.

    David Davis level. In his 2008 by-election David Davis received 75% of the votes he had received in 2005 (17,113 vs 22,792). A similar result for Farage would see him receive 15,919 votes. That would look pretty good right now.

    Ahead of the Tories in 2024. At the 2024 GE the Tory candidate received 12,820 votes. If Farage were to fall below that level that wouldn't look good.

    Record low turnout. The record low turnout in a peacetime by-election, since 1918, is the 18.2% turnout in the 2012 Manchester Central by-election. That equates to about 14,400 votes cast in total, of which I'd expect Farage to receive at least three-quarters (about 11,000). This is not the sort of record Farage wants to be setting. It would be a clear repudiation by the electorate of his choice to seek a renewed mandate.

    10,612 votes. Losing half of his 2024 voters would be highly embarrassing.

    10,000. It might be an arbitrary round number because we don't use the superior dozenal number system, but falling into four figures, below 10,000 votes, would be humiliating.

    7,924. This is 10% of the 2024 GE electorate, which will be somewhat larger or smaller this time, and is notably also the threshold for a recall petition to force a recall by-election. Would be symbolic for Farage to win fewer votes than signatures required to trigger a by-election.
    I think Farage will get around 14,000 votes, and other assorted loonies will get 5,000 votes.

    That annoying binman will save his deposit, as will Lozza.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,815
    DougSeal said:

    As an aside, there's a fair chance of Farage scoring more than 80% of the vote, perhaps even 90%, given the competition he is up against. If the turnout is low enough it's something that would make the exercise look even more ridiculous, I think.

    I think so too but you have to wonder given the resources they are (allegedly) diverting there away from the Greater Manchester vote. There may be concern about an embarrassingly high protest vote. Or maybe he's lonely. Who knows.
    95% vote for Farage on a respectable turnout where he gets most of his 2024 voters to vote for him again is very different to the same percentage where the turnout is a record low for a peacetime by-election.

    I'd guess the concern is that the election looks pointless and people don't bother to vote, so most of his 21,225 voters from 2024 need to be persuaded to do so.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,651
    DougSeal said:

    viewcode said:
    Good afternoon

    Yes I read that but seems they say nothing will change so what is the point ?

    And for clarification who is Lorraine as I have never heard of her?
    Anything good on Sky this afternoon, Big G?
    Actually I am recovering from a rather nasty migraine [ I do get them quite often] so not watching TV much but hope to watch the match tonight
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,683

    viewcode said:
    It really shouldn't have been allowed. Quite disgraceful the virtual monopoly (foreign owned) it creates. Unfortunately we have a Government that is at best incompetent and at worst actively working against the interests of the country.
    What is so special about this government ?
    Approval of similar foreign takeovers has been forthcoming from every administration since Thatcher.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,799
    edited 12:20PM

    As an aside, there's a fair chance of Farage scoring more than 80% of the vote, perhaps even 90%, given the competition he is up against. If the turnout is low enough it's something that would make the exercise look even more ridiculous, I think.

    I think turnout will be pretty high with so many candidates. Haltemprice in 2008 was a very different time and place.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,279

    MattW said:

    Did we note Kemi excluding supporters of Net Zero from her candidates list?

    Kemi Badenoch has rejected former Conservative MPs as candidates for her party at the next election because they support net zero.

    The Tory leader has refused to allow back former members, including MPs who lost their seats at the 2024 election, who disagree with her policy shift.

    Full article link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/456b4575e713b904

    Kemi's own article full link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c13e3d53102ac7bd

    To my eye this is a further narrowing of the Conservative Party, which is a time bomb.

    Noted.

    I’m clearly banned. Big G, HY, TSE can come out of hiding and speak for themselves.

    Speaking for myself.

    This line > “Mrs Badenoch says that some of her former colleagues “should never have been candidates before” and they will soon be informed they will not be allowed to stand again.” it’s pure Daenerys Targaryen - the mindset of someone who would feed to her dragons the career of anyone who disagrees with her crusade. Because that is exactly what she is doing.

    Should never have been candidates in the first place, because they believed in the ECHR and 2050 Net Zero target. Say it again. Just let it sink in. Those two things were creations of the British Conservative Party. Everything Strong and Sensible about the party’s instincts and its sense of purpose at home and the wider world was poured into them.

    It’s disgraceful it’s come to this in the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson’s Purge was bad enough - brutally beheading accomplished centre-right politicians with so much more to give the parliamentary party. What Kemi Badenoch’s Purge is doing is subtly different. Butchering the foetuses of talented accomplished centre-right Conservative politicians, before their careers can even be born. So worse. Much much worse.

    Yes, you are spot on Mr W - The only logical conclusion - this brings further long term damage to the Conservative Party, being much harder to move away from the glib, right wing, answers of Badenoch, when it needs to return to being the thoughtful, inclusive, centre right party of government again.

    Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill will turn in their graves over this. On this i trust and follow the careers and values of Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill - not Kemi Targaryen.

    It's Kemi bringing the values of most online communities into meatspace. Disagree with her, and she will block you. It's easier that way.

    Which is fine, as long as your perspective starts and ends with your own ego. Once you acknowledge that there are other people out there, and they are as real as you and as important as you, especially when they're wrong, it much less fine.

    One would have hoped that those who laughed at Corbynites for saying "why don't you just [go away] and join the Tories" were learning the lesson of how ineffective that approach is. It rather looks like Kemi B didn't.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,815
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Reform UK have asked activists to travel to Clacton to help Nigel Farage instead of campaigning in the Manchester Mayor election

    "We now need all of our fantastic activists, branch officers and councillors to come and help us in Clacton"

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2075157897902797029?s=20

    They really are on the back foot... Farage has totally ballsed this up, hasn't he?
    Do you really think he hadn't considered the possibility the main parties wouldn't contest the seat?
    Yep. I don’t think he considered that at all. I think he made a hasty and rash decision
    He told the Mail he had not considered the possibility.

    So one thing I genuinely can't get my head round. What do Reform think a "win" in Clacton actually looks like? They're obviously worried, which is why they're pulling out of Manchester. But worried about what? Falling below what benchmark?
    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2075219293222944793
    The main challenge will be turnout (though postal voting should help with that). You can construct a series of benchmarks, ordered from most triumphal for Farage to most embarrassing.

    Increasing the absolute number of votes for Farage. In 2024 Farage received 21,225 votes. If he receives more votes than that in the by-election it would be a genuine triumph.

    David Davis level. In his 2008 by-election David Davis received 75% of the votes he had received in 2005 (17,113 vs 22,792). A similar result for Farage would see him receive 15,919 votes. That would look pretty good right now.

    Ahead of the Tories in 2024. At the 2024 GE the Tory candidate received 12,820 votes. If Farage were to fall below that level that wouldn't look good.

    Record low turnout. The record low turnout in a peacetime by-election, since 1918, is the 18.2% turnout in the 2012 Manchester Central by-election. That equates to about 14,400 votes cast in total, of which I'd expect Farage to receive at least three-quarters (about 11,000). This is not the sort of record Farage wants to be setting. It would be a clear repudiation by the electorate of his choice to seek a renewed mandate.

    10,612 votes. Losing half of his 2024 voters would be highly embarrassing.

    10,000. It might be an arbitrary round number because we don't use the superior dozenal number system, but falling into four figures, below 10,000 votes, would be humiliating.

    7,924. This is 10% of the 2024 GE electorate, which will be somewhat larger or smaller this time, and is notably also the threshold for a recall petition to force a recall by-election. Would be symbolic for Farage to win fewer votes than signatures required to trigger a by-election.
    I think Farage will get around 14,000 votes, and other assorted loonies will get 5,000 votes.

    That annoying binman will save his deposit, as will Lozza.
    That would fall into my, "okay, not good, but not bad," range.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,651
    edited 12:24PM

    MattW said:

    Did we note Kemi excluding supporters of Net Zero from her candidates list?

    Kemi Badenoch has rejected former Conservative MPs as candidates for her party at the next election because they support net zero.

    The Tory leader has refused to allow back former members, including MPs who lost their seats at the 2024 election, who disagree with her policy shift.

    Full article link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/456b4575e713b904

    Kemi's own article full link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c13e3d53102ac7bd

    To my eye this is a further narrowing of the Conservative Party, which is a time bomb.

    Noted.

    I’m clearly banned. Big G, HY, TSE can come out of hiding and speak for themselves.

    Speaking for myself.

    This line > “Mrs Badenoch says that some of her former colleagues “should never have been candidates before” and they will soon be informed they will not be allowed to stand again.” it’s pure Daenerys Targaryen - the mindset of someone who would feed to her dragons the career of anyone who disagrees with her crusade. Because that is exactly what she is doing.

    Should never have been candidates in the first place, because they believed in the ECHR and 2050 Net Zero target. Say it again. Just let it sink in. Those two things were creations of the British Conservative Party. Everything Strong and Sensible about the party’s instincts and its sense of purpose at home and the wider world was poured into them.

    It’s disgraceful it’s come to this in the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson’s Purge was bad enough - brutally beheading accomplished centre-right politicians with so much more to give the parliamentary party. What Kemi Badenoch’s Purge is doing is subtly different. Butchering the foetuses of talented accomplished centre-right Conservative politicians, before their careers can even be born. So worse. Much much worse.

    Yes, you are spot on Mr W - The only logical conclusion - this brings further long term damage to the Conservative Party, being much harder to move away from the glib, right wing, answers of Badenoch, when it needs to return to being the thoughtful, inclusive, centre right party of government again.

    Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill will turn in their graves over this. On this i trust and follow the careers and values of Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill - not Kemi Targaryen.

    Actually she is quite right to look for business and professional candidates not connected with the party previously

    I have no problem with her unique style that seems to be gathering quite a following

    Of course others disagree but then that is politics

    Times change and to succeed you have to change as well and whether she succeeds or not time will tell
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,958
    edited 12:29PM

    MattW said:

    Did we note Kemi excluding supporters of Net Zero from her candidates list?

    Kemi Badenoch has rejected former Conservative MPs as candidates for her party at the next election because they support net zero.

    The Tory leader has refused to allow back former members, including MPs who lost their seats at the 2024 election, who disagree with her policy shift.

    Full article link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/456b4575e713b904

    Kemi's own article full link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c13e3d53102ac7bd

    To my eye this is a further narrowing of the Conservative Party, which is a time bomb.

    Noted.

    I’m clearly banned. Big G, HY, TSE can come out of hiding and speak for themselves.

    Speaking for myself.

    This line > “Mrs Badenoch says that some of her former colleagues “should never have been candidates before” and they will soon be informed they will not be allowed to stand again.” it’s pure Daenerys Targaryen - the mindset of someone who would feed to her dragons the career of anyone who disagrees with her crusade. Because that is exactly what she is doing.

    Should never have been candidates in the first place, because they believed in the ECHR and 2050 Net Zero target. Say it again. Just let it sink in. Those two things were creations of the British Conservative Party. Everything Strong and Sensible about the party’s instincts and its sense of purpose at home and the wider world was poured into them.

    It’s disgraceful it’s come to this in the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson’s Purge was bad enough - brutally beheading accomplished centre-right politicians with so much more to give the parliamentary party. What Kemi Badenoch’s Purge is doing is subtly different. Butchering the foetuses of talented accomplished centre-right Conservative politicians, before their careers can even be born. So worse. Much much worse.

    Yes, you are spot on Mr W - The only logical conclusion - this brings further long term damage to the Conservative Party, being much harder to move away from the glib, right wing, answers of Badenoch, when it needs to return to being the thoughtful, inclusive, centre right party of government again.

    Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill will turn in their graves over this. On this i trust and follow the careers and values of Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill - not Kemi Targaryen.

    It's Kemi bringing the values of most online communities into meatspace. Disagree with her, and she will block you. It's easier that way.

    Which is fine, as long as your perspective starts and ends with your own ego. Once you acknowledge that there are other people out there, and they are as real as you and as important as you, especially when they're wrong, it much less fine.

    One would have hoped that those who laughed at Corbynites for saying "why don't you just [go away] and join the Tories" were learning the lesson of how ineffective that approach is. It rather looks like Kemi B didn't.
    The Corbynites may have said such but there was a great deal more banning, blocking, ostracising and expelling under the Starmerites. Kemi is reflecting the morals of the McSweeny tendency.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,815
    Andy_JS said:

    As an aside, there's a fair chance of Farage scoring more than 80% of the vote, perhaps even 90%, given the competition he is up against. If the turnout is low enough it's something that would make the exercise look even more ridiculous, I think.

    I think turnout will be pretty high with so many candidates. Haltemprice in 2008 was a very different time and place.
    Our comment system migration genius is going for a turnout of ~24%. The turnout in 2024 was 58%.

    Haltemprice and Howden in 2008 saw turnout decline from 70.1% (in 2005) to 34.5%.

    What rough number would be pretty high?
  • eekeek Posts: 34,482

    DougSeal said:

    As an aside, there's a fair chance of Farage scoring more than 80% of the vote, perhaps even 90%, given the competition he is up against. If the turnout is low enough it's something that would make the exercise look even more ridiculous, I think.

    I think so too but you have to wonder given the resources they are (allegedly) diverting there away from the Greater Manchester vote. There may be concern about an embarrassingly high protest vote. Or maybe he's lonely. Who knows.
    95% vote for Farage on a respectable turnout where he gets most of his 2024 voters to vote for him again is very different to the same percentage where the turnout is a record low for a peacetime by-election.

    I'd guess the concern is that the election looks pointless and people don't bother to vote, so most of his 21,225 voters from 2024 need to be persuaded to do so.
    That’s the thing it’s a completely pointless byelection without the other parties.

    Apathy and laziness are the issues that Farage will need to get over,

    Dislike / hatred of Farage is going go get the anti Farage vote put
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,945
    I think that is another challenge for Kemi and the Tories.

    Their economic policy has been based around open borders and anyting-for-sale.

    I am not sure how sustainable that is in 2026, nor how they can ideologically evolve their policy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,754
    Taz said:

    Minnesota daycare fraud is a myth perpetuated by the far right.

    Apparently

    https://x.com/nickshirleyy/status/2075414571700113415?s=61

    The Medicare fraud is massive, with billions stolen.

    The daycare fraud is a lot less proven. Or perhaps it would be fairer to say that Nick Shirley was very selective with the evidence he presented. It was an invective rather than an investigation, and -for example- included a day care center that hadn't even opened yet. Another center he identified posted security footage from the day Nick Shirley claimed to have visited it, with lots of children being dropped off... and no Nick Shirley. Plenty of parents were willing to speak to CBS about the fact that they used some of the daycare centers in question every day.

    That said, there is definitely daycare fraud: when the government is giving out money, people will find ways to persuade the government to give it to them. And -as Medicare showed- the government in Minnesota was lax in checking on how money was spent.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,945

    MattW said:

    Did we note Kemi excluding supporters of Net Zero from her candidates list?

    Kemi Badenoch has rejected former Conservative MPs as candidates for her party at the next election because they support net zero.

    The Tory leader has refused to allow back former members, including MPs who lost their seats at the 2024 election, who disagree with her policy shift.

    Full article link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/456b4575e713b904

    Kemi's own article full link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c13e3d53102ac7bd

    To my eye this is a further narrowing of the Conservative Party, which is a time bomb.

    Noted.

    I’m clearly banned. Big G, HY, TSE can come out of hiding and speak for themselves.

    Speaking for myself.

    This line > “Mrs Badenoch says that some of her former colleagues “should never have been candidates before” and they will soon be informed they will not be allowed to stand again.” it’s pure Daenerys Targaryen - the mindset of someone who would feed to her dragons the career of anyone who disagrees with her crusade. Because that is exactly what she is doing.

    Should never have been candidates in the first place, because they believed in the ECHR and 2050 Net Zero target. Say it again. Just let it sink in. Those two things were creations of the British Conservative Party. Everything Strong and Sensible about the party’s instincts and its sense of purpose at home and the wider world was poured into them.

    It’s disgraceful it’s come to this in the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson’s Purge was bad enough - brutally beheading accomplished centre-right politicians with so much more to give the parliamentary party. What Kemi Badenoch’s Purge is doing is subtly different. Butchering the foetuses of talented accomplished centre-right Conservative politicians, before their careers can even be born. So worse. Much much worse.

    Yes, you are spot on Mr W - The only logical conclusion - this brings further long term damage to the Conservative Party, being much harder to move away from the glib, right wing, answers of Badenoch, when it needs to return to being the thoughtful, inclusive, centre right party of government again.

    Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill will turn in their graves over this. On this i trust and follow the careers and values of Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill - not Kemi Targaryen.
    Thanks for your reply.

    The contemporary language is perhaps now "binned" not "banned".
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 29,181

    viewcode said:
    Good afternoon

    Yes I read that but seems they say nothing will change so what is the point ?

    And for clarification who is Lorraine as I have never heard of her?
    "Lorraine" is Lorraine Kelly, a Scottish presenter of ITV breakfast/daytime programming for many years (basically decades at this point). She has a warm, friendly, non-threatening personality that makes her well-suited for the time slot.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorraine_Kelly
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,568

    MattW said:

    Did we note Kemi excluding supporters of Net Zero from her candidates list?

    Kemi Badenoch has rejected former Conservative MPs as candidates for her party at the next election because they support net zero.

    The Tory leader has refused to allow back former members, including MPs who lost their seats at the 2024 election, who disagree with her policy shift.

    Full article link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/456b4575e713b904

    Kemi's own article full link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c13e3d53102ac7bd

    To my eye this is a further narrowing of the Conservative Party, which is a time bomb.

    Noted.

    I’m clearly banned. Big G, HY, TSE can come out of hiding and speak for themselves.

    Speaking for myself.

    This line > “Mrs Badenoch says that some of her former colleagues “should never have been candidates before” and they will soon be informed they will not be allowed to stand again.” it’s pure Daenerys Targaryen - the mindset of someone who would feed to her dragons the career of anyone who disagrees with her crusade. Because that is exactly what she is doing.

    Should never have been candidates in the first place, because they believed in the ECHR and 2050 Net Zero target. Say it again. Just let it sink in. Those two things were creations of the British Conservative Party. Everything Strong and Sensible about the party’s instincts and its sense of purpose at home and the wider world was poured into them.

    It’s disgraceful it’s come to this in the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson’s Purge was bad enough - brutally beheading accomplished centre-right politicians with so much more to give the parliamentary party. What Kemi Badenoch’s Purge is doing is subtly different. Butchering the foetuses of talented accomplished centre-right Conservative politicians, before their careers can even be born. So worse. Much much worse.

    Yes, you are spot on Mr W - The only logical conclusion - this brings further long term damage to the Conservative Party, being much harder to move away from the glib, right wing, answers of Badenoch, when it needs to return to being the thoughtful, inclusive, centre right party of government again.

    Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill will turn in their graves over this. On this i trust and follow the careers and values of Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill - not Kemi Targaryen.

    Actually she is quite right to look for business and professional candidates not connected with the party previously

    I have no problem with her unique style that seems to be gathering quite a following

    Of course others disagree but then that is politics

    Times change and to succeed you have to change as well and whether she succeeds or not time will tell
    I ask you to consider Kemi Badenoch’s Purges are actually extremely serious for the Conservatives, for they impact long long after her own leadership is long gone. If Parliamentary Candidates don’t pledge to abandon the target to achieve net zero by 2050 and back UKs removal from the European Convention on Human Rights, they cannot be a candidate.

    Is Badenoch blocking Penny Mourdant - someone who would have thrashed Badenoch in post election leadership contest, and who the Conservatives need in Parliament for the next leadership contest?

    Badenoch writes: “If someone still believes in net zero targets that make energy more expensive and are destroying industry, they are not coming back.” On the required pledge to leave the ECHR, the Tory leader argues “abandoning rulings from Strasbourg is THE ONLY WAY to protect our borders, our veterans, and our citizens”.

    She makes the answers to the problems sound so simple and straightforward, doesn’t she? Just like fascists like to do.

    Times change you say. But your parties values and whole reason for existing, is she sticking to it?

    What the leader of the Conservative Party should stand up for and champion throughout the Conservative Party are democratic principles - freedom of expression, freedom of thought and conscience. Cherish, enshrine and safeguard a baseline of these values, for the sake of human dignity.

    Badenoch clearly is not. She’s practicing the exact opposite. Alarm bells should be sounding - this purge is the behaviour of a 1930s dictator.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,945
    Youtube is still feeding me adverts from our Tesla correspondent about his recommended luxury floormats to replace the Tesla original equipment and its "flap of doom" (which sounds quite Faragiste this week.)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,301
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Minnesota daycare fraud is a myth perpetuated by the far right.

    Apparently

    https://x.com/nickshirleyy/status/2075414571700113415?s=61

    The Medicare fraud is massive, with billions stolen.

    The daycare fraud is a lot less proven. Or perhaps it would be fairer to say that Nick Shirley was very selective with the evidence he presented. It was an invective rather than an investigation, and -for example- included a day care center that hadn't even opened yet. Another center he identified posted security footage from the day Nick Shirley claimed to have visited it, with lots of children being dropped off... and no Nick Shirley. Plenty of parents were willing to speak to CBS about the fact that they used some of the daycare centers in question every day.

    That said, there is definitely daycare fraud: when the government is giving out money, people will find ways to persuade the government to give it to them. And -as Medicare showed- the government in Minnesota was lax in checking on how money was spent.
    The US day care system is truly extraordinary. When some old folk lose their minds instead of restricting them to a care home facility, they are encouraged and given the resources to create their own alternative universe, where they can pretend to do any role they like, even being President, and create whatever facts suit them at the moment.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,815
    eek said:

    DougSeal said:

    As an aside, there's a fair chance of Farage scoring more than 80% of the vote, perhaps even 90%, given the competition he is up against. If the turnout is low enough it's something that would make the exercise look even more ridiculous, I think.

    I think so too but you have to wonder given the resources they are (allegedly) diverting there away from the Greater Manchester vote. There may be concern about an embarrassingly high protest vote. Or maybe he's lonely. Who knows.
    95% vote for Farage on a respectable turnout where he gets most of his 2024 voters to vote for him again is very different to the same percentage where the turnout is a record low for a peacetime by-election.

    I'd guess the concern is that the election looks pointless and people don't bother to vote, so most of his 21,225 voters from 2024 need to be persuaded to do so.
    That’s the thing it’s a completely pointless byelection without the other parties.

    Apathy and laziness are the issues that Farage will need to get over,

    Dislike / hatred of Farage is going go get the anti Farage vote put
    There were 11,399 votes for Labour/Lib Dems/Greens. Not sure how many of the Tory votes can be said to be anti-Farage.

    My assumption is that a lower proportion of these voters will bother to vote, whether for Binface, or Rejoin EU, or whatever non-fascist options there are, than Reform voters will turn out for Farage.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,799
    edited 12:48PM
    eek said:

    DougSeal said:

    As an aside, there's a fair chance of Farage scoring more than 80% of the vote, perhaps even 90%, given the competition he is up against. If the turnout is low enough it's something that would make the exercise look even more ridiculous, I think.

    I think so too but you have to wonder given the resources they are (allegedly) diverting there away from the Greater Manchester vote. There may be concern about an embarrassingly high protest vote. Or maybe he's lonely. Who knows.
    95% vote for Farage on a respectable turnout where he gets most of his 2024 voters to vote for him again is very different to the same percentage where the turnout is a record low for a peacetime by-election.

    I'd guess the concern is that the election looks pointless and people don't bother to vote, so most of his 21,225 voters from 2024 need to be persuaded to do so.
    That’s the thing it’s a completely pointless byelection without the other parties.

    Apathy and laziness are the issues that Farage will need to get over,

    Dislike / hatred of Farage is going go get the anti Farage vote put
    The only reason they're not fighting it is because they think they can't win it. If, say, Robert Jenrick had resigned in Newark, Labour would probably be contesting the seat because they'd think they had at least some chance there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,424

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Admiration for all you do, Robert.

    Wonder if there's a wider principle being manifest here. For most of my life, the orthodoxy has been to outsource things, so that organisations in the public and private sectors tend towards an ideal of a management team and a bundle of contracts.

    Initially, that led to improvements in efficiency and quality, because competition will do that. But now the contracted suppliers have rebalanced the power in their favour, so can be more expensive and less good. (My place really struggled to let its recent catering contract.)

    Hence insourcing looks more attractive. And so the wheel turns.

    Having been in the US for a month, it is something that has noticably changed over the 25 years I have been coming regularly. Go try and hire a car, lots of brands...go and try and contact their customer service and you quickly realise there is essentially 3 hire car companies now. Same with hotels, beef processing, etc etc etc.

    This massive consolidations in huge number of industries means the idea of wild competition in a free market is an illusion.

    It is where you do need strong government to stop over consolidation. I don't now much about contract catering, but its there like basically Sodexo and errrh Sodexo?
    Free marketeers will say there’s nothing to stop new companies emerging but where a business has a wide moat with large barriers to entry that just won’t happen.
    Speaking of market failure, looks like EasyJet is the next firm to be asset-stripped.

    EasyJet agrees in principle to rival £5.7bn takeover bid
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgjxqq9jg8yo
    They are going to end up trying to out RyanAir, RyanAir aren't they. Rather sad, as I actually quite like EasyJet. Pricing is decent, the carry on luggage restrictions are not overly stingy, leg room etc is fine, they don't spend the flight time as an opportunity to try and bash you over the head with upsells. Its far superior to RyanAir experience in all those aspects.

    But on the flip side, I can see somebody looking at the fact RyanAir is terrible experience (and not that cheap) yet people still fly on it as a great opportunity to squeeze loads more juice out of EasyJet. Cos if you get pissed off with EasyJet, where are you going to go, RyanAir? Wizz?
    Jet 2 are eating Easy Jets lunch.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,651
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:
    Good afternoon

    Yes I read that but seems they say nothing will change so what is the point ?

    And for clarification who is Lorraine as I have never heard of her?
    "Lorraine" is Lorraine Kelly, a Scottish presenter of ITV breakfast/daytime programming for many years (basically decades at this point). She has a warm, friendly, non-threatening personality that makes her well-suited for the time slot.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorraine_Kelly
    Thanks but cannot say I have ever watched her programme
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,602
    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    DougSeal said:

    As an aside, there's a fair chance of Farage scoring more than 80% of the vote, perhaps even 90%, given the competition he is up against. If the turnout is low enough it's something that would make the exercise look even more ridiculous, I think.

    I think so too but you have to wonder given the resources they are (allegedly) diverting there away from the Greater Manchester vote. There may be concern about an embarrassingly high protest vote. Or maybe he's lonely. Who knows.
    95% vote for Farage on a respectable turnout where he gets most of his 2024 voters to vote for him again is very different to the same percentage where the turnout is a record low for a peacetime by-election.

    I'd guess the concern is that the election looks pointless and people don't bother to vote, so most of his 21,225 voters from 2024 need to be persuaded to do so.
    That’s the thing it’s a completely pointless byelection without the other parties.

    Apathy and laziness are the issues that Farage will need to get over,

    Dislike / hatred of Farage is going go get the anti Farage vote put
    The only reason they're not fighting it is because they think they can't win it. If, say, Robert Jenrick had resigned in Newark, Labour would probably be contesting the seat because they'd think they had at least some chance there.
    Not the only reason. Parties put up candidates who know they can’t win all the time. The Lib Dems in Mackerfield and sundry other places for example. The Tories in most of Scotland. So “can’t win” is not the only reason.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,152

    It is being reported in Moscow that Putin is having screaming fits at his generals. He is in denial about just how fucked the domestic fuel situation is.

    Downfall?

    Look. You clearly don't have faith in General Steiner. That man will pull Russia out the fire and his offensive will take Kyiv and..........

    Oh wait? He couldn't attack?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,651

    MattW said:

    Did we note Kemi excluding supporters of Net Zero from her candidates list?

    Kemi Badenoch has rejected former Conservative MPs as candidates for her party at the next election because they support net zero.

    The Tory leader has refused to allow back former members, including MPs who lost their seats at the 2024 election, who disagree with her policy shift.

    Full article link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/456b4575e713b904

    Kemi's own article full link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c13e3d53102ac7bd

    To my eye this is a further narrowing of the Conservative Party, which is a time bomb.

    Noted.

    I’m clearly banned. Big G, HY, TSE can come out of hiding and speak for themselves.

    Speaking for myself.

    This line > “Mrs Badenoch says that some of her former colleagues “should never have been candidates before” and they will soon be informed they will not be allowed to stand again.” it’s pure Daenerys Targaryen - the mindset of someone who would feed to her dragons the career of anyone who disagrees with her crusade. Because that is exactly what she is doing.

    Should never have been candidates in the first place, because they believed in the ECHR and 2050 Net Zero target. Say it again. Just let it sink in. Those two things were creations of the British Conservative Party. Everything Strong and Sensible about the party’s instincts and its sense of purpose at home and the wider world was poured into them.

    It’s disgraceful it’s come to this in the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson’s Purge was bad enough - brutally beheading accomplished centre-right politicians with so much more to give the parliamentary party. What Kemi Badenoch’s Purge is doing is subtly different. Butchering the foetuses of talented accomplished centre-right Conservative politicians, before their careers can even be born. So worse. Much much worse.

    Yes, you are spot on Mr W - The only logical conclusion - this brings further long term damage to the Conservative Party, being much harder to move away from the glib, right wing, answers of Badenoch, when it needs to return to being the thoughtful, inclusive, centre right party of government again.

    Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill will turn in their graves over this. On this i trust and follow the careers and values of Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill - not Kemi Targaryen.

    Actually she is quite right to look for business and professional candidates not connected with the party previously

    I have no problem with her unique style that seems to be gathering quite a following

    Of course others disagree but then that is politics

    Times change and to succeed you have to change as well and whether she succeeds or not time will tell
    I ask you to consider Kemi Badenoch’s Purges are actually extremely serious for the Conservatives, for they impact long long after her own leadership is long gone. If Parliamentary Candidates don’t pledge to abandon the target to achieve net zero by 2050 and back UKs removal from the European Convention on Human Rights, they cannot be a candidate.

    Is Badenoch blocking Penny Mourdant - someone who would have thrashed Badenoch in post election leadership contest, and who the Conservatives need in Parliament for the next leadership contest?

    Badenoch writes: “If someone still believes in net zero targets that make energy more expensive and are destroying industry, they are not coming back.” On the required pledge to leave the ECHR, the Tory leader argues “abandoning rulings from Strasbourg is THE ONLY WAY to protect our borders, our veterans, and our citizens”.

    She makes the answers to the problems sound so simple and straightforward, doesn’t she? Just like fascists like to do.

    Times change you say. But your parties values and whole reason for existing, is she sticking to it?

    What the leader of the Conservative Party should stand up for and champion throughout the Conservative Party are democratic principles - freedom of expression, freedom of thought and conscience. Cherish, enshrine and safeguard a baseline of these values, for the sake of human dignity.

    Badenoch clearly is not. She’s practicing the exact opposite. Alarm bells should be sounding - this purge is the behaviour of a 1930s dictator.
    You last paragraph is just silly and comparing her to a facist

    Really
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,424
    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    DougSeal said:

    As an aside, there's a fair chance of Farage scoring more than 80% of the vote, perhaps even 90%, given the competition he is up against. If the turnout is low enough it's something that would make the exercise look even more ridiculous, I think.

    I think so too but you have to wonder given the resources they are (allegedly) diverting there away from the Greater Manchester vote. There may be concern about an embarrassingly high protest vote. Or maybe he's lonely. Who knows.
    95% vote for Farage on a respectable turnout where he gets most of his 2024 voters to vote for him again is very different to the same percentage where the turnout is a record low for a peacetime by-election.

    I'd guess the concern is that the election looks pointless and people don't bother to vote, so most of his 21,225 voters from 2024 need to be persuaded to do so.
    That’s the thing it’s a completely pointless byelection without the other parties.

    Apathy and laziness are the issues that Farage will need to get over,

    Dislike / hatred of Farage is going go get the anti Farage vote put
    The only reason they're not fighting it is because they think they can't win it. If, say, Robert Jenrick had resigned in Newark, Labour would probably be contesting the seat because they'd think they had at least some chance there.
    Not the only reason. Parties put up candidates who know they can’t win all the time. The Lib Dems in Mackerfield and sundry other places for example. The Tories in most of Scotland. So “can’t win” is not the only reason.
    I am sure all parties will put up candidates if there is a recall by-election.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,815
    edited 12:57PM
    The number of ships, mainly tankers, but also dry cargo ships and ferries, attacked near Crimea has risen to 49 in 5 days. One source is reporting that there are thought to be 120 ships currently used by Russia to supply Crimea, so perhaps 71 to go.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,660
    @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social‬

    Clacton faces the ultimate choice 🗑️

    33% of Brits would prefer Count Binface to win the by-election in Clacton, while 21% would prefer Farage to win.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ipsosintheuk.bsky.social/post/3mqc5ak6c4t2h
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,040
    MattW said:

    I think that is another challenge for Kemi and the Tories.

    Their economic policy has been based around open borders and anyting-for-sale.

    I am not sure how sustainable that is in 2026, nor how they can ideologically evolve their policy.
    It is the entire post-Thatcher settlement that needs rethinking.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,482
    Scott_xP said:

    @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social‬

    Clacton faces the ultimate choice 🗑️

    33% of Brits would prefer Count Binface to win the by-election in Clacton, while 21% would prefer Farage to win.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ipsosintheuk.bsky.social/post/3mqc5ak6c4t2h

    That is a scarily low number of Farage voters given that Reform are polling in the high 20s%
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,424
    As long as we run a current account deficit we will have to flog off slices of Britain.

    No one seems interested in economic measures like this any more.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,482

    MattW said:

    Did we note Kemi excluding supporters of Net Zero from her candidates list?

    Kemi Badenoch has rejected former Conservative MPs as candidates for her party at the next election because they support net zero.

    The Tory leader has refused to allow back former members, including MPs who lost their seats at the 2024 election, who disagree with her policy shift.

    Full article link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/456b4575e713b904

    Kemi's own article full link:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c13e3d53102ac7bd

    To my eye this is a further narrowing of the Conservative Party, which is a time bomb.

    Noted.

    I’m clearly banned. Big G, HY, TSE can come out of hiding and speak for themselves.

    Speaking for myself.

    This line > “Mrs Badenoch says that some of her former colleagues “should never have been candidates before” and they will soon be informed they will not be allowed to stand again.” it’s pure Daenerys Targaryen - the mindset of someone who would feed to her dragons the career of anyone who disagrees with her crusade. Because that is exactly what she is doing.

    Should never have been candidates in the first place, because they believed in the ECHR and 2050 Net Zero target. Say it again. Just let it sink in. Those two things were creations of the British Conservative Party. Everything Strong and Sensible about the party’s instincts and its sense of purpose at home and the wider world was poured into them.

    It’s disgraceful it’s come to this in the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson’s Purge was bad enough - brutally beheading accomplished centre-right politicians with so much more to give the parliamentary party. What Kemi Badenoch’s Purge is doing is subtly different. Butchering the foetuses of talented accomplished centre-right Conservative politicians, before their careers can even be born. So worse. Much much worse.

    Yes, you are spot on Mr W - The only logical conclusion - this brings further long term damage to the Conservative Party, being much harder to move away from the glib, right wing, answers of Badenoch, when it needs to return to being the thoughtful, inclusive, centre right party of government again.

    Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill will turn in their graves over this. On this i trust and follow the careers and values of Lady Thatcher and Winston Churchill - not Kemi Targaryen.

    Actually she is quite right to look for business and professional candidates not connected with the party previously

    I have no problem with her unique style that seems to be gathering quite a following

    Of course others disagree but then that is politics

    Times change and to succeed you have to change as well and whether she succeeds or not time will tell
    I ask you to consider Kemi Badenoch’s Purges are actually extremely serious for the Conservatives, for they impact long long after her own leadership is long gone. If Parliamentary Candidates don’t pledge to abandon the target to achieve net zero by 2050 and back UKs removal from the European Convention on Human Rights, they cannot be a candidate.

    Is Badenoch blocking Penny Mourdant - someone who would have thrashed Badenoch in post election leadership contest, and who the Conservatives need in Parliament for the next leadership contest?

    Badenoch writes: “If someone still believes in net zero targets that make energy more expensive and are destroying industry, they are not coming back.” On the required pledge to leave the ECHR, the Tory leader argues “abandoning rulings from Strasbourg is THE ONLY WAY to protect our borders, our veterans, and our citizens”.

    She makes the answers to the problems sound so simple and straightforward, doesn’t she? Just like fascists like to do.

    Times change you say. But your parties values and whole reason for existing, is she sticking to it?

    What the leader of the Conservative Party should stand up for and champion throughout the Conservative Party are democratic principles - freedom of expression, freedom of thought and conscience. Cherish, enshrine and safeguard a baseline of these values, for the sake of human dignity.

    Badenoch clearly is not. She’s practicing the exact opposite. Alarm bells should be sounding - this purge is the behaviour of a 1930s dictator.
    You last paragraph is just silly and comparing her to a facist

    Really
    Purging potential MPs based on a single viewpoint is partly how Bozo pushed the party into it's current mess. Remember Boris binned a lot of centralist Tory MPs back in 2020...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,815
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social‬

    Clacton faces the ultimate choice 🗑️

    33% of Brits would prefer Count Binface to win the by-election in Clacton, while 21% would prefer Farage to win.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ipsosintheuk.bsky.social/post/3mqc5ak6c4t2h

    That is a scarily low number of Farage voters given that Reform are polling in the high 20s%
    It's Ipsos, so it compares to the 26% saying they would vote Reform in their last opinion poll. And most polls find a fair proportion of Tory voters have warm feelings for Farage. Oh. It has don't know still in the base, so we're not comparing like with like.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,424
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social‬

    Clacton faces the ultimate choice 🗑️

    33% of Brits would prefer Count Binface to win the by-election in Clacton, while 21% would prefer Farage to win.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ipsosintheuk.bsky.social/post/3mqc5ak6c4t2h

    That is a scarily low number of Farage voters given that Reform are polling in the high 20s%
    Not scary.

    Farage did once come third behind a man dressed as a dolphin at one election, so there is precedent.




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