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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The May 22nd Euro Elections look set to be a good test for

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited April 2014 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The May 22nd Euro Elections look set to be a good test for internet polling against traditional phone surveys

Of the 2014 polls the only ones not to be carried out online are the two from ICM which has been showing a very different picture – notably UKIP has been third in each case. TNS-BMRB operates a sort of hybrid system – interviewers hand over a computer for the interviewee to fill in.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited April 2014
    (First)

    Whilst a fair question - there aren't enough non-internet polls to really be able to test against. If ICM does badly, it might be due to its weighting criteria rather than the Phone vs Internet issue.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I'd be astonished if Labour achieved the 35-36% suggested by the ICM Euro polls.

    As a random straw in the wind the placard count in my traditionally solid Labour ward in Exeter is 3-1 in UKIPs favour over Labour.

    It would be interesting to see the turnouts estimated by each opinion poll too.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I suspect third would deflate the UKIP bubble - disappointed expectations, fractious rows, etc.

    Other views?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Given the UKIP demographic I would have thought internet polls would underestmate rather than the other way round.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited April 2014
    Interesting that ICM don't trust their own Euro election poll figures. In their commentary on the latest poll for the Guardian they have this to say (my emphasis):
    However, we should NOT take the differences between these European vote intentions shares and those for each party in the Westminster shares as evidence that Labour are doing far better than the Conservatives in cross-retaining their supporters. In fact, Labour are only slightly better able than the Conservatives to retain their Westminster voters in the Euro elections (87% of Labour’s Westminster intenders say they will vote Labour in the Euro’s, compared to 84% of Conservative intenders being successfully cross-converted). Instead, much of the difference in overall vote shares is down to the impact of ICM methodological adjustments, which history has told us work for Westminster but do not transfer very successfully to other elections – in particular the manual adjustment that takes account of ‘partial refusers’.
    This suggests that the lower turnout in the European elections, plus other differences to general elections [no sense of electing a government, perhaps], will make this a poor test of which polls to trust for the general election.

    Or at least that is what ICM are saying.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    OblitusSumMe said:

    I'd be astonished if Labour achieved the 35-36% suggested by the ICM Euro polls..

    Yes, compared with previous EU elections, ICM in particular, but the other pollsters as well, are showing very high figures. Labour tend to do poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections. Labour's share in the last three has been:

    2009 15.7% (!)
    2004 22.6%
    1999 28.0%

    In each case much lower than their national polling at the time and very much lower than their GE performances before and after.

    Of course, they were in government then in each case, so maybe it will be different this time. But maybe it won't.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    OblitusSumMe said:

    I'd be astonished if Labour achieved the 35-36% suggested by the ICM Euro polls.

    As a random straw in the wind the placard count in my traditionally solid Labour ward in Exeter is 3-1 in UKIPs favour over Labour.

    It would be interesting to see the turnouts estimated by each opinion poll too.

    Labour got 15% in the 2009 EU elections. I'd be amazed if they more than doubled their percentage under dreary EdM.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    What a difference a year can make. Last April, Labour had a 14% lead, with the Tories getting record lows from pollsters. Today - neck and neck.

    The next year could be fun....

    http://labourlist.org/2013/04/labours-poll-lead-at-14-points-as-tories-hit-poll-low-with-three-different-pollsters/
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Interesting that ICM don't trust their own Euro election poll figures. In their commentary on the latest poll for the Guardian they have this to say (my emphasis):

    However, we should NOT take the differences between these European vote intentions shares and those for each party in the Westminster shares as evidence that Labour are doing far better than the Conservatives in cross-retaining their supporters. In fact, Labour are only slightly better able than the Conservatives to retain their Westminster voters in the Euro elections (87% of Labour’s Westminster intenders say they will vote Labour in the Euro’s, compared to 84% of Conservative intenders being successfully cross-converted). Instead, much of the difference in overall vote shares is down to the impact of ICM methodological adjustments, which history has told us work for Westminster but do not transfer very successfully to other elections – in particular the manual adjustment that takes account of ‘partial refusers’.
    This suggests that the lower turnout in the European elections, plus other differences to general elections [no sense of electing a government, perhaps], will make this a poor test of which polls to trust for the general election.

    Or at least that is what ICM are saying.

    What's a manual adjustment? Johnny Ball's think of a number?
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    @OblitusSumMe
    That reminds me of the spat between a WSJ columnist and Nate Silver before the 2012 Presidential Election. It turned out the polls were more reliable than placards.

    "At other times, commentators cite statistics even as they decry their uselessness. Peggy Noonan, the Wall Street Journal columnist, wrote a blog post on the eve of the 2012 election that critiqued those of us who were “too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us.” Instead, “all the vibrations” were right for a Romney victory, she wrote.

    Among other things, Noonan cited the number of Romney yard signs, and the number of people at his rallies, as evidence that he was bound to win. But these “vibrations” are, in fact, quantifiable. You could hire a team of stringers to drive around randomly selected neighborhoods in swing states and count the yard signs. And news accounts routinely estimate the number of attendees at political rallies. Noonan could have formulated a testable hypothesis: Do yard signs predict election outcomes better than polls do?"
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited April 2014
    After previously being pretty firm about not running for POTUS, Elizabeth Warren's denials are starting to sound a lot more open-ended:

    DAVID MUIR: Are you gonna run for president?

    ELIZABETH WARREN: I'm not running for president.

    DAVID MUIR: There's nothing that could change your mind?

    ELIZABETH WARREN: I'm not running for president. We have issues we need to deal with right now in 2014. We’ve gotta deal with our kids who can't pay for college, with minimum wage, with Social Security-- with holding big financial institutions accountable. We've got Senate races in 2014. We need to make the focus right now, right now, right now.

    DAVID MUIR: You have a lotta people who believe in you-- which is a good thing. And I wanna read you this line. This pundit, I'm sure, one of the many, writes, "There's only one person in the Democratic party who has a credible path to beating Hillary Clinton. And her name is Elizabeth Warren." When you hear that, do you think there's an opportunity there to continue this fight that you started long ago?

    ELIZABETH WARREN: David-- like I said, I'm not running for president. I wanna make it clear it's about the issues we need to work on. And we need to work on them now. Look, Washington works for those who have lots of money and lots of power. It concentrates it. All we've got on the other side are our voices. And we need to make our voices heard. And we need to make them heard now. We're runnin' outa time. That's where I'm gonna stay focused.

    http://abcnews.go.com/WN/transcript-sen-elizabeth-warren-mass-talks-abc-news/story?id=23415394&singlePage=true

    (The whole interview is well worth the read.)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    dugarbandier said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Interesting that ICM don't trust their own Euro election poll figures. In their commentary on the latest poll for the Guardian they have this to say (my emphasis):

    However, we should NOT take the differences between these European vote intentions shares and those for each party in the Westminster shares as evidence that Labour are doing far better than the Conservatives in cross-retaining their supporters. In fact, Labour are only slightly better able than the Conservatives to retain their Westminster voters in the Euro elections (87% of Labour’s Westminster intenders say they will vote Labour in the Euro’s, compared to 84% of Conservative intenders being successfully cross-converted). Instead, much of the difference in overall vote shares is down to the impact of ICM methodological adjustments, which history has told us work for Westminster but do not transfer very successfully to other elections – in particular the manual adjustment that takes account of ‘partial refusers’.
    This suggests that the lower turnout in the European elections, plus other differences to general elections [no sense of electing a government, perhaps], will make this a poor test of which polls to trust for the general election.

    Or at least that is what ICM are saying.
    What's a manual adjustment? Johnny Ball's think of a number?I think it's what has previously been called the "spiral of silence" adjustment, where they apportion a proportion of those who don't know/won't say who they will vote for to the parties they voted for at the last election.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Labour tend to do poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections.

    Are you saying labour at evens to win the euros is a tad short?

    I think it is.

    What is there to turn out for? UKIP are already giving the government a kicking.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    OblitusSumMe said:

    What's a manual adjustment? Johnny Ball's think of a number?I think it's what has previously been called the "spiral of silence" adjustment, where they apportion a proportion of those who don't know/won't say who they will vote for to the parties they voted for at the last election.

    It seems a bit mysterious because they could do that automatically too, to a fixed formula? I wonder why manual?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    I might vote Lib Dem in the Euros and UKIP in the local.

    Just because I doubt many others will ;)
  • Ray_FinchRay_Finch Posts: 6
    The interesting one for me is the difference between the ICM for Guardian and Telegraph. Why did they do online for DT?
    As it happens, I think Labours score is not too far off. LD and G are out of it. Most of theirs will go Labour. Some LD to UKIP but Clegg is out electorally now and the left LD will move to red.
    UKIP Candidate BTW
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited April 2014
    dugarbandier said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    I think it's what has previously been called the "spiral of silence" adjustment, where they apportion a proportion of those who don't know/won't say who they will vote for to the parties they voted for at the last election.

    It seems a bit mysterious because they could do that automatically too, to a fixed formula? I wonder why manual?
    I presume that they do use a fixed formula, and that their use of the word "manual" in that context is confusing rather than illuminating.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Pulpstar said:

    I might vote Lib Dem in the Euros and UKIP in the local.

    Just because I doubt many others will ;)

    Where in the country are you? Have UKIP got a chance on a local level?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2014
    Ray_Finch said:

    The interesting one for me is the difference between the ICM for Guardian and Telegraph. Why did they do online for DT?
    As it happens, I think Labours score is not too far off. LD and G are out of it. Most of theirs will go Labour. Some LD to UKIP but Clegg is out electorally now and the left LD will move to red.
    UKIP Candidate BTW

    Did you think the Survation Eastleigh poll was on the money?

    http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

    Best of luck in the election!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    A famous item of a renowned Crosby man goes under the hammer...
    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/120k-price-tag-historic-titanic-6593179
    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-titanic-heros-silver-cup-7021628
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I might vote Lib Dem in the Euros and UKIP in the local.

    Just because I doubt many others will ;)

    Where in the country are you? Have UKIP got a chance on a local level?
    Rock solid red area:

    Diane Charles Labour 2507
    Brian Ridgway Labour 2436
    Charles David Rae Watson UKIP 1262
    David Stanley Rae Watson UKIP 1065
    Lewis James Blackburn Conservative 843
    Roger Anthony Hall Conservative 813

    Lib Dems didn't bother, they'd have embarrassed themselves completely.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MarqueeMark said:

    What a difference a year can make. Last April, Labour had a 14% lead, with the Tories getting record lows from pollsters. Today - neck and neck.

    The next year could be fun....

    http://labourlist.org/2013/04/labours-poll-lead-at-14-points-as-tories-hit-poll-low-with-three-different-pollsters/

    And the PBPouters think it's a squirrel shoo-in for Ed.

    Titters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited April 2014
    The ICM phone poll manual adjustment is the Spiral of Silence adjustment that has allowed ICM to get the Gold Standard tag which sees them re-allocate 50% of Don't Knows/Refused to sayers back to the party they voted for at the last General Election.

    Here's the original piece from the 90s

    http://www.icmresearch.com/white-papers/messages-from-sprial-of-silence.pdf

    Phone polls cost more than online polls, so that's why there's more online polls than phone polls and why some media organisations go for online polls.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2014
    " This year there’s a private hope that they [the Conservatives] could hold onto the [local government] seats they have – and also gain some in certain areas."

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/why-the-local-elections-matter-more-to-the-tories/

    Polling mid-thirties, that should be true.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    UKIP are still the heavy favourites as far as I'm concerned. I just can't see how on earth it's feasible that Labour, in their least successful type of election, would manage to get above the 29% they got in last year's locals. I'm thinking 25-26% is their ceiling for the Euros.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    On topic, I think this polling cycle is going to be different for the pollsters for a variety of reasons.

    1) Differential turnout for the Euros

    2) Differential turnout part II, because some areas have local council elections, which will impact on 1)

    3) There maybe a late shift

    4) This election is UKIP's Raison d'etre, they should do well.

    5) There's two governing parties at Westminster, it is a risk free way of voting against the government, usually there's only one party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    For me, the most interesting aspect of these Euros is will Ed Miliband join Neil Kinnock as the only Leader of the Opposition to not win the Euros held in a non general election year.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Labour tend to do poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections. Labour's share in the last three has been:

    2009 15.7% (!)
    2004 22.6%
    1999 28.0%

    And the two before that...

    1994 44% (!!) (Tories 28%)
    1989 39% (Tories 33%)

    I imagine we will find that it is governing parties that tend to poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections. It's a protest vehicle, and vote share predicts little about the next general election. Expect perhaps whether a party's vote is going to go up or fall.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Jonathan said:

    And the two before that...

    1994 44% (!!) (Tories 28%)
    1989 39% (Tories 33%)

    I imagine we will find that it is governing parties that tend to poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections. It's a protest vehicle, and vote share predicts little about the next general election. Expect perhaps whether a party's vote is going to go up or fall.

    Maybe, but the two before that were held under a different voting system, so it's hard to make a comparison. And, whilst you are certainly right about the protest-vote aspect, the difference this time is that cheeky Mr Farage is perfectly positioned to harvest it.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2014
    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Labour tend to do poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections. Labour's share in the last three has been:

    2009 15.7% (!)
    2004 22.6%
    1999 28.0%

    And the two before that...

    1994 44% (!!) (Tories 28%)
    1989 39% (Tories 33%)

    I imagine we will find that it is governing parties that tend to poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections. It's a protest vehicle, and vote share predicts little about the next general election. Expect perhaps whether a party's vote is going to go up or fall.
    You're right up to a point, but I do think there's something specifically difficult for Labour for the European elections. The 1999 result is particularly relevant: Labour were still very popular then, and they performed MUCH better in the local elections that year than in the Euros, despite being in government. I suppose it just comes down to the basic fact that, even if a majority of people are in favour of staying in the EU, most of that majority really don't feel that strongly about it, so the only people who turn up for these pointless elections are foaming-at-the-mouth Eurosceptics, who simply care about it a lot more than the typical pro-EU person.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Rather too obvious expectation management there

    *polite applause only*
    Danny565 said:

    UKIP are still the heavy favourites as far as I'm concerned. I just can't see how on earth it's feasible that Labour, in their least successful type of election, would manage to get above the 29% they got in last year's locals. I'm thinking 25-26% is their ceiling for the Euros.

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The ICM phone poll manual adjustment is the Spiral of Silence adjustment that has allowed ICM to get the Gold Standard tag which sees them re-allocate 50% of Don't Knows/Refused to sayers back to the party they voted for at the last General Election.

    Here's the original piece from the 90s

    http://www.icmresearch.com/white-papers/messages-from-sprial-of-silence.pdf

    Phone polls cost more than online polls, so that's why there's more online polls than phone polls and why some media organisations go for online polls.

    In that case, using the phrase "manual adjustment" is misleading. Interesting that in that paper it says that the spiral of silence unwinds close to polling date-so for the best prediction they should taper the proportion of re-allocated don't knows/refused? Maybe that is manual- but there's no real reason why it should be. I'm sure Rod Crosby or others could give them a usable mathematical model.

    In the end, opinion polls can only measure what people say they will do. the projection of what they actually will do is subject to the weather and everything else. I'm still unconvinced whether ICM is really gold standard, or just luckiest, or best guesser of when to tweak the algorithm.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I'm thinking 25-26% is their ceiling for the Euros.

    Interesting. Are you saying labour could come third in the euros?

    Even if its not an important election for labour, that would not be good for ed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @patrickwintour: Andre Lampitt, suspended tweeting star of UKIP broadcast, is from Zimbabwe, and married to a Pole. He wants to keep foreigners out.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    @patrickwintour: Andre Lampitt, suspended tweeting star of UKIP broadcast, is from Zimbabwe, and married to a Pole. He wants to keep foreigners out.

    You think that makes it worse or better that he is married to a Pole?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Met this girl at a UKIP do recently.. didn't know about this story!

    But I think it will be good for UKIP... sex sells

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/04/25/UKIP-latest-shock-pretty-girl-engages-in-sexual-activity
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Polling mid-thirties, that should be true.

    Perhaps it has not escaped the notice of voters that council tax in labour controlled areas has continued to rise whilst many tory councils have frozen theirs. The tories have also named and shamed those blue councils that have made increases.


    People probably notice this stuff.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    UKIP Euro vote share

    Under/Over 26.5 5/6

    Any takers?
  • Ray_FinchRay_Finch Posts: 6
    anotherDave said:

    Ray_Finch said:

    The interesting one for me is the difference between the ICM for Guardian and Telegraph. Why did they do online for DT?
    As it happens, I think Labours score is not too far off. LD and G are out of it. Most of theirs will go Labour. Some LD to UKIP but Clegg is out electorally now and the left LD will move to red.
    UKIP Candidate BTW

    Did you think the Survation Eastleigh poll was on the money?

    http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

    Best of luck in the election!
    Yes I do. We have 3 County Councillors in Eastleigh and the branch is probably the most productive we have in terms of canvassing, leafleting etc. I suspect the Tories will give up on it next year in search of a more productive seat.
    I really think we will win with the right candidate such as DJ was last time.

    Cheers.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Breaking hairdressing news:

    I have just had my hair cut in Notting Hill. The price of this haircut will remain between me and the snipper.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    isam said:

    UKIP Euro vote share

    Under/Over 26.5 5/6

    Any takers?

    I'm trying to work up the courage to back UKIP most votes, but I think I'll whimp out and just bet them to beat the Conservatives. That seems like a very safe bet.

    http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/European-Parliament-Elections/2014-UK-Euro-Parliamentary-Elections/Politics-N-1z140x5Z1z140wwZ1z141ne/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    anotherDave said:

    isam said:

    UKIP Euro vote share

    Under/Over 26.5 5/6

    Any takers?

    I'm trying to work up the courage to back UKIP most votes, but I think I'll whimp out and just bet them to beat the Conservatives. That seems like a very safe bet.

    http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/European-Parliament-Elections/2014-UK-Euro-Parliamentary-Elections/Politics-N-1z140x5Z1z140wwZ1z141ne/
    I am not sure the value is still there in that bet Dave. It was 4/6 until about a week ago, and odds against last year when I seriously thought Shadsy had put the prices in the wrong way!

    They say if you missed the wedding, don't go to the funeral, so having not backed it at 11/10 4/6 etc I cant take 2/5 myself

    5/4 most votes seems the best bet for Kippers IMO, but what do I know?!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    isam said:

    UKIP Euro vote share

    Under/Over 26.5 5/6

    Any takers?

    Unless that "An Independence from Europe" party really has a huge effect, they'll almost certainly get over that.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    No thread on today's Populus?

    After what, 2 years, if we don't have cross-over we do at least have a tie:

    Lab 35
    Con 35
    LD 9
    UKIP 13

    http://www.populus.co.uk/
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    BobaFett said:

    Breaking hairdressing news:

    I have just had my hair cut in Notting Hill. The price of this haircut will remain between me and the snipper.

    £259 innit ? London price. You look like your hero George Osborne.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m

    Labour and Tories level pegging in latest Populus poll. 35%. Labour has no 35% strategy though...

    Anyone know what he's on about?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Labour tend to do poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections. Labour's share in the last three has been:

    2009 15.7% (!)
    2004 22.6%
    1999 28.0%

    And the two before that...

    1994 44% (!!) (Tories 28%)
    1989 39% (Tories 33%)

    I imagine we will find that it is governing parties that tend to poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections. It's a protest vehicle, and vote share predicts little about the next general election. Expect perhaps whether a party's vote is going to go up or fall.
    You're right up to a point, but I do think there's something specifically difficult for Labour for the European elections.
    You have a point, I would say most Labour voters aren't particularly exercised about the EU one way or another. Generally it is a massive strength for the party, but is a problem for the EU elections.

    Virtually no-one votes for an MEP in a straightforward way. It's all about protest.

    Protest against the coalition (Labour)
    Protest against the EU and everything that has happened since 1945 (UKIP)
    Protest against the EU and other Tories (Tory)
    Protest against the LDs (Everyone else)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    isam said:

    anotherDave said:

    isam said:

    UKIP Euro vote share

    Under/Over 26.5 5/6

    Any takers?

    I'm trying to work up the courage to back UKIP most votes, but I think I'll whimp out and just bet them to beat the Conservatives. That seems like a very safe bet.

    http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/European-Parliament-Elections/2014-UK-Euro-Parliamentary-Elections/Politics-N-1z140x5Z1z140wwZ1z141ne/
    I am not sure the value is still there in that bet Dave. It was 4/6 until about a week ago, and odds against last year when I seriously thought Shadsy had put the prices in the wrong way!

    They say if you missed the wedding, don't go to the funeral, so having not backed it at 11/10 4/6 etc I cant take 2/5 myself

    5/4 most votes seems the best bet for Kippers IMO, but what do I know?!
    If I bet £100, I win £40. That seems OK.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MikeL said:


    After what, 2 years, if we don't have cross-over we do at least have a tie:

    We had a couple of ties last year too. Where's the poster who thought anyone predicting cross-over in any poll any time this year was a raving idiot?
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    MikeL said:

    No thread on today's Populus?

    After what, 2 years, if we don't have cross-over we do at least have a tie:

    Lab 35
    Con 35
    LD 9
    UKIP 13

    http://www.populus.co.uk/

    Detailed links

    http://www.populus.co.uk/Poll/Voting-Intention-83/

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Online_VI_24-04-2014_BPC.pdf
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Populus yet again appears to have under polled Lab2010. I make no partisan point but just an FYI.

    Weighted sample (compared to actual 2010)

    Con +2.4
    Lab -4.2
    Lib +1.7

    This over polling of Con and under polling of Lab is becoming a theme. There may be a good reason for it. Anyone have any idea?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    taffys said:

    I'm thinking 25-26% is their ceiling for the Euros.

    Interesting. Are you saying labour could come third in the euros?

    Even if its not an important election for labour, that would not be good for ed.

    I do actually think Labour coming third is a slight possibility, though the odds are against it (my guess it that they'll scrape in 2/3% ahead of the Tories, which would still not be particularly impressive).

    Part of me actually hopes they do come third, because it would be a wake-up call. There still seems to be way too much complacency in the Labour high-command, the latest example being the Guardian article about Miliband being "bullish" about his chances in 2015. While they're absolutely right that the Tories are about as popular as a cup of cat sick and no-one in the real world is buying the media propaganda about a glorious economic recovery, they're completely underestimating how unenthusiastic people are about Labour.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited April 2014
    SimonStClare said:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m

    Labour and Tories level pegging in latest Populus poll. 35%. Labour has no 35% strategy though...

    Anyone know what he's on about?

    Dunno. Just taking a guess though: he thinks it's not good news for Ed Miliband?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    SimonStClare said:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m

    Labour and Tories level pegging in latest Populus poll. 35%. Labour has no 35% strategy though...

    Anyone know what he's on about?

    It's a much discussed/debated question over whether Miliband is going for the "core vote" to see him into no 10, based on the inherent "bias" in the current constituencies/vote patterns, where 35% would be "enough". Of course Miliband's people deny it:


    http://labourlist.org/2013/04/ed-milibands-critics-dont-understand-strategy/

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    MikeL said:

    No thread on today's Populus?

    After what, 2 years, if we don't have cross-over we do at least have a tie:

    Lab 35
    Con 35
    LD 9
    UKIP 13

    http://www.populus.co.uk/

    I'll be needing a wheelbarrow.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    O/T there's an ad above here that says I can check my essays for plagiarism- surely I would know if I've been a-plagiarising? how odd
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    A snip at the price Alan!

    (I'll retrieve my jacket)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Neil

    If there were a q2 bet for crossover with Populus I'd pile in.
    They keep up-weighing Tory voters quite heavily for some reason.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2014
    CarlottaVance said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m

    Labour and Tories level pegging in latest Populus poll. 35%. Labour has no 35% strategy though...

    Anyone know what he's on about?

    It's a much discussed/debated question over whether Miliband is going for the "core vote" to see him into no 10, based on the inherent "bias" in the current constituencies/vote patterns, where 35% would be "enough". Of course Miliband's people deny it:


    http://labourlist.org/2013/04/ed-milibands-critics-dont-understand-strategy/

    Ah, cheers Miss Vance, thought the 35% rang a bell.

    [edit] @ThomasNashe - Dan rarely does..!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Will be interesting to see if the media make anything of the Populus?

    eg Will we get headlines along the lines of:

    "Labour loses lead"
    "Tories catch Labour"
    etc
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    CarlottaVance said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m

    Labour and Tories level pegging in latest Populus poll. 35%. Labour has no 35% strategy though...

    Anyone know what he's on about?

    It's a much discussed/debated question over whether Miliband is going for the "core vote" to see him into no 10, based on the inherent "bias" in the current constituencies/vote patterns, where 35% would be "enough". Of course Miliband's people deny it:


    http://labourlist.org/2013/04/ed-milibands-critics-dont-understand-strategy/

    BobaFett said:

    Populus yet again appears to have under polled Lab2010. I make no partisan point but just an FYI.

    Weighted sample (compared to actual 2010)

    Con +2.4
    Lab -4.2
    Lib +1.7

    This over polling of Con and under polling of Lab is becoming a theme. There may be a good reason for it. Anyone have any idea?

    They seemed to have picked up a whole bunch of very underwhelmed Labour leaners in that poll. Labour's GOTV operation will be the key to Ed M getting into power or not.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    dugarbandier said:

    O/T there's an ad above here that says I can check my essays for plagiarism- surely I would know if I've been a-plagiarising? how odd

    The google ads are a source of endless amusement (tho once someone complained that OGH shouldn't be posting ads for Romanian brides, when it was pointed out Google selects them based on your browsing history....) - recently returned from the Far East (where I did get geographically appropriate ads) I have had stuff on the Koch brothers and Obama. With relief I now have one for Italian holidays....

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    CarlottaVance said:

    dugarbandier said:

    O/T there's an ad above here that says I can check my essays for plagiarism- surely I would know if I've been a-plagiarising? how odd

    The google ads are a source of endless amusement (tho once someone complained that OGH shouldn't be posting ads for Romanian brides, when it was pointed out Google selects them based on your browsing history....) - recently returned from the Far East (where I did get geographically appropriate ads) I have had stuff on the Koch brothers and Obama. With relief I now have one for Italian holidays....

    CarlottaVance said:

    dugarbandier said:

    O/T there's an ad above here that says I can check my essays for plagiarism- surely I would know if I've been a-plagiarising? how odd

    The google ads are a source of endless amusement (tho once someone complained that OGH shouldn't be posting ads for Romanian brides, when it was pointed out Google selects them based on your browsing history....) - recently returned from the Far East (where I did get geographically appropriate ads) I have had stuff on the Koch brothers and Obama. With relief I now have one for Italian holidays....

    Mines for a hair transplant... the rotters!!
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Somewhat O/T but I've just found a 'Motorcycle Alliance' candidate standing in Manchester (Old Moat) - Maybe it's just me, but that seems somewhat specific for a local election campaign.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Pulpstar - perhaps that's right but does it explain the bizarre weighting?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2014
    (my guess it that they'll scrape in 2/3% ahead of the Tories, which would still not be particularly impressive).

    Tend to agree. I think UKIP/labour being overbought a bit, the tories a bit undersold.

    It wouldn't entirely suprise me if all three were in a percentage point or so of each other ie UKIP 27/labour 26/Con 25....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BobaFett said:

    @Neil

    If there were a q2 bet for crossover with Populus I'd pile in.
    They keep up-weighing Tory voters quite heavily for some reason.

    What do you make of their UKIP weighting?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2014
    FPT
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @AveryLP - Have you seen this piece about rental prices versus house prices?

    http://timharford.com/2014/02/dont-bet-the-house-on-price-rises-persisting/

    It's an interesting view, although I tend to agree with the comment by 'Phil H' about low interest rates being the dominant factor behind the discrepancy.

    Richard

    I agree that the anecdotal and simpler explanation of 'Phil H' was probably a better example of Ockham's razor in action.

    Estate agents are reporting a ratio of eight buyers (potential customers registering interest in buying) to every one seller (properties on market). There is probably some double counting in there as buyers tend to register with more agents than those appointed by sellers but the excess of demand over supply (yes, Robert!) will still be significant.

    Historically only one in eight properties sold are new builds, so the theory that demand can be met through construction is fallacious.

    But let's stick with construction before moving on to the real short term problem.

    About 35,000 private dwellings are currently being completed per quarter. This gives us an annual total of around 130,000-150,000 which is around 65%-75% of pre-recession peak (and EdM's 200k per year promise). Private dwelling construction is increasing and will almost certainly get to the 200,000 level by 2016 unaided by EdM.

    Even if construction of private dwellings hits the 200,000 level/target does it will still fall short of the 240,000 new dwellings per year which industry analysts believe is needed to keep pace with population growth and demographic change.

    [to be continued]
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    @Richard_Nabavi

    [Housing Part II - continued]

    A major problem in housing supply has been the fall in construction of housing association and council owned properties.

    Over the whole course of Labour's 13 years in power only 6,400 council dwellings were built. This compares with 15,560 under Major between 1992-97, and, 4,760 in the first two years of the Coalition.

    Of course, the trend has been towards housing association builds over the past three decades, but even here average build under Labour was only 24,797; under Major 34,590 and under the Coalition 32,420 (same base years as above).

    [Now we know why labourites always begin a discussion of the housing problem with the opener: "all parties have failed in their housing policies..."!]

    Even if 50-75,000 'social' dwellings could be built a year then the aggregate number of dwellings built would very soon exceed forecast need. The problem with the social sector though is that there is no adequate return on development capital and the business model both from the construction financing and rental subsidy ends doesn't work. It is not land which has disappeared but available finance, both capital to fund building and expenses to fund benefits. With government borrowing and spend constrained for the forseeable future the only solution has to be to change the model.

    There is a real opportunity for a brave and imaginative party here. Solving the low cost housing problem is a sure election winner. I still remain hopeful that George can do it. He has shown himself fond of housing market subsidies and mortgage guarantees. All it needs is a well thought out capital transfer scheme and he would be sailing to victory as convincingly as Sir Ben Ainslie!


    [to be continued]
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BobaFett said:

    Breaking hairdressing news:

    I have just had my hair cut in Notting Hill. The price of this haircut will remain between me and the snipper.

    There's a place on Garway road in Notting Hill where they'll charge you £12.

    I hope you didn't pay more for it...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2014
    @Richard_Nabavi

    [Housing Part III - continued]

    But back to the real short term problem.

    If new housing can only meet 12.5% (or even, say, 20%) of demand, then the problem lies mostly elsewhere and its symptoms are lack of liquidity in the market. This is where 'Phil H' was so strong in his comment:

    There is also a sellers market out there at present, because so many people seem to be too scared to move, or cannot afford to realise a loss on their house. The number of properties for sale is tiny, and so the buyers, largely driven by need rather than desire, must compete more.

    House owners are holding on to ownership of their properties and renting them out rather than selling them if forced to move. Deleveraging has also meant fewer owners are prepared to trade up. So the stock of property on the market has fallen. And for as long as its value remains below purchase/mortgage cost then owners won't sell.

    We are now at the point when, across the UK, most properties are nearing their 2007 nominal values. This should remove the negative equity constraint on sales but constant media and industry talk of rapid price rises is encouraging owners to hold on in the hope of regaining some of the real value lost since the recession. Even with nominal prices recovered, real prices are still 10-20% lower than before the crash.

    So what is needed in the short term is a 10% upward correction (outside London) in house prices to encourage owners to sell. This would restore liquidity to the market and should result in prices returning to a stable equilibrium.

    The problem is that rising house price expectations are an 'British vice'. Is it possible for house prices to rise 10% in 2014, say, then fall back to a 2% growth rate in 2015? I don't know the answer to this but I suspect the problem is occupying a lot of Mark Carney's and his team's time at the BoE. I expect the BoE to start active measures to curb house price inflation only once volume has returned to the market and my estimate is that this will only start needing to happen in the second half of 2015.

    It appears St. George is both a lucky and skillful Chancellor!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    The other random factor to keep in mind is that people who vote in Euro elections find they have much more choice than they expected - maybe 10 different lists. The usual effect of that is that "others" do better than the polls, as people spontaneously decide to give the Judean Popular Front a try.

    By the way, if anyone's in Nottingham at the weekend and at a loose end, there's a Euro hustings which I've been parachuted into at Friends House at 2pm - the Labour candidate who was down to speak is ill and the others are tied up with other debates and speeches, so they asked me to stand in.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Did Dan Hodges tweet last night's YouGov?
    Hmm.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    CarlottaVance said:

    dugarbandier said:

    O/T there's an ad above here that says I can check my essays for plagiarism- surely I would know if I've been a-plagiarising? how odd

    The google ads are a source of endless amusement (tho once someone complained that OGH shouldn't be posting ads for Romanian brides, when it was pointed out Google selects them based on your browsing history....) - recently returned from the Far East (where I did get geographically appropriate ads) I have had stuff on the Koch brothers and Obama. With relief I now have one for Italian holidays....

    CarlottaVance said:

    dugarbandier said:

    O/T there's an ad above here that says I can check my essays for plagiarism- surely I would know if I've been a-plagiarising? how odd

    The google ads are a source of endless amusement (tho once someone complained that OGH shouldn't be posting ads for Romanian brides, when it was pointed out Google selects them based on your browsing history....) - recently returned from the Far East (where I did get geographically appropriate ads) I have had stuff on the Koch brothers and Obama. With relief I now have one for Italian holidays....

    I suppose I have been reading too much about STAP stem cells and the soap opera pertaining, so google has me down as a plagiarism fan. I do often get ads for the philipino lovelies/asian brides. I'm afraid its likely just down to browsing in english with an east asian IP address. How mundane!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    BobaFett said:

    Populus yet again appears to have under polled Lab2010. I make no partisan point but just an FYI.

    Weighted sample (compared to actual 2010)

    Con +2.4
    Lab -4.2
    Lib +1.7

    This over polling of Con and under polling of Lab is becoming a theme. There may be a good reason for it. Anyone have any idea?

    The problem is that people do not accurately recall their past vote, so you can't simply weight precisely to the 2010 result.

    In the methodology notes for the latest ICM [I dimly recall that] they say that they weight 80% to the 2010 GE results and 20% to the running mean of the past vote recall of their last 25 polls. I've no idea what Populus do, but it does make life difficult for the pollsters.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    OblitusSumMe said:

    The problem is that people do not accurately recall their past vote, so you can't simply weight precisely to the 2010 result.

    I've never understood that one.

    I mean, come on people. It's one fact that you're being asked to remember. did you vote for the winning side or not? It's not that difficult!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited April 2014
    Lennon said:

    Somewhat O/T but I've just found a 'Motorcycle Alliance' candidate standing in Manchester (Old Moat) - Maybe it's just me, but that seems somewhat specific for a local election campaign.

    Actually, I reckon for a local campaign really specific issues like that make more sense. You can campaign more sensibly on wanting to ditch one set of speedbumps in the ward as councillor than if you care only about speedbumps across the city but want to be the MEP.
    isam said:

    UKIP Euro vote share

    Under/Over 26.5 5/6

    Any takers?

    I'll have some of that? You take £30, £45, or £60 bet?

    EDIT: I mean I'll bet Over, just to clarify.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Charles said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    The problem is that people do not accurately recall their past vote, so you can't simply weight precisely to the 2010 result.

    I've never understood that one.

    I mean, come on people. It's one fact that you're being asked to remember. did you vote for the winning side or not? It's not that difficult!
    That's human psychology. People frequently end up lying to themselves because facing the truth is too difficult to bear.

    So they end up unconsciously modifying their memory of the past to fit a narrative that they find more palatable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    @isam £10 on over 26.5 please.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Quincel said:

    Lennon said:

    Somewhat O/T but I've just found a 'Motorcycle Alliance' candidate standing in Manchester (Old Moat) - Maybe it's just me, but that seems somewhat specific for a local election campaign.

    Actually, I reckon for a local campaign really specific issues like that make more sense. You can campaign more sensibly on wanting to ditch one set of speedbumps in the ward as councillor than if you care only about speedbumps across the city but want to be the MEP.
    isam said:

    UKIP Euro vote share

    Under/Over 26.5 5/6

    Any takers?

    I'll have some of that? You take £30, £45, or £60 bet?

    EDIT: I mean I'll bet Over, just to clarify.
    Lets keep it to £30, I was kind of hoping ICM lovers would go under!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Isam

    I haven't run the numbers. Certainly they were massively depressing Kipper numbers up until recently. Not sure if their change in methodology has helped?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Just took the 5-4 available on Labour in the most votes Euros market with Hill's.What makes this a bet is the fact the voting for the council elections in mainly Labour territory will boost the Labour vote in the euros in the same way in 2009 the council elections in the Tory shires did the Tories in the euros then.
    The daily attacks in the media on UKIP are unlikely to abate,as they seem keen to provide the media with the ammunition to do it.The attack in the Mail on UKIP'S "racism"-irony of ironies for the Mail-is a newer but perhaps more ominous move from their point of view.The drip-drip-drip effect is bound to hold UKIP back.
    As for the William Hill shops closing,my local manager was just relieved it's not to be one of them and was certain other firms would follow suit.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    Lennon said:

    Somewhat O/T but I've just found a 'Motorcycle Alliance' candidate standing in Manchester (Old Moat) - Maybe it's just me, but that seems somewhat specific for a local election campaign.

    Actually, I reckon for a local campaign really specific issues like that make more sense. You can campaign more sensibly on wanting to ditch one set of speedbumps in the ward as councillor than if you care only about speedbumps across the city but want to be the MEP.
    isam said:

    UKIP Euro vote share

    Under/Over 26.5 5/6

    Any takers?

    I'll have some of that? You take £30, £45, or £60 bet?

    EDIT: I mean I'll bet Over, just to clarify.
    Lets keep it to £30, I was kind of hoping ICM lovers would go under!
    Deal. And see you next Friday hopefully.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    @isam £10 on over 26.5 please.

    ok


    Any more will be 27.5
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    BobaFett said:

    Populus yet again appears to have under polled Lab2010. I make no partisan point but just an FYI.

    Weighted sample (compared to actual 2010)

    Con +2.4
    Lab -4.2
    Lib +1.7

    This over polling of Con and under polling of Lab is becoming a theme. There may be a good reason for it. Anyone have any idea?

    Well embarrassment is the obvious one. Did you vote for Gordon Brown at the last election? Well...I might have done (sigh).

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    DavidL said:

    BobaFett said:

    Populus yet again appears to have under polled Lab2010. I make no partisan point but just an FYI.

    Weighted sample (compared to actual 2010)

    Con +2.4
    Lab -4.2
    Lib +1.7

    This over polling of Con and under polling of Lab is becoming a theme. There may be a good reason for it. Anyone have any idea?

    Well embarrassment is the obvious one. Did you vote for Gordon Brown at the last election? Well...I might have done (sigh).

    o_O Is this a hypothetical or an admission ?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Charles said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    The problem is that people do not accurately recall their past vote, so you can't simply weight precisely to the 2010 result.

    I've never understood that one.

    I mean, come on people. It's one fact that you're being asked to remember. did you vote for the winning side or not? It's not that difficult!
    False memory syndrome. "How much did you pay for your haircut?"

    "Um. Twelve quid?"
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Flip-flopping Cameron is beginning to sound like my little echo, says Nigel Farage

    "The way I do politics is to say what I actually think. Sometimes people strongly disagree with me. But I hope that everyone realises that my opinions are quite straightforward and are based on profound beliefs. Unlike Mr Cameron’s they are not changed more often than many people change their socks.

    Indeed, I sometimes wonder if the Prime Minister actually believes in anything much at all, apart from furthering his own career prospects. That’s why I find it so laughable when people blame me for him being in the doldrums. I’ll take my share of the blame – or should that be the credit? – but most of it he has brought on himself.

    To the 70 per cent of you who intend to vote Ukip next month, I pledge that we will carry on battling for common sense in the same straightforward manner. You can depend on us.

    And let’s leave Dave to be a dedicated follower of fashion"

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/472409/Flip-flopping-Cameron-is-beginning-to-sound-like-my-little-echo-says-Nigel-Farage
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nice hat tip to David from Hopi

    http://hopisen.com/2014/how-to-lose-vote-share-without-losing-a-single-voter/
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    "That's human psychology. People frequently end up lying to themselves because facing the truth is too difficult to bear."

    Didn't someone on C4 claim they voted Labour in the last election because of the Coalition?

    I don't think its lying to oneself, more ... they just don't really remember.

    WRT Dan Hodges and 35%, he got 'called out' by someone over his claims that EdM has a 35 % strategy. Hence the reference in his tweet.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I voted Green in the last Euros because I wanted Gordon to go.
    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Labour tend to do poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections. Labour's share in the last three has been:

    2009 15.7% (!)
    2004 22.6%
    1999 28.0%

    And the two before that...

    1994 44% (!!) (Tories 28%)
    1989 39% (Tories 33%)

    I imagine we will find that it is governing parties that tend to poorly (or abysmally) in EU elections. It's a protest vehicle, and vote share predicts little about the next general election. Expect perhaps whether a party's vote is going to go up or fall.
    You're right up to a point, but I do think there's something specifically difficult for Labour for the European elections.
    You have a point, I would say most Labour voters aren't particularly exercised about the EU one way or another. Generally it is a massive strength for the party, but is a problem for the EU elections.

    Virtually no-one votes for an MEP in a straightforward way. It's all about protest.

    Protest against the coalition (Labour)
    Protest against the EU and everything that has happened since 1945 (UKIP)
    Protest against the EU and other Tories (Tory)
    Protest against the LDs (Everyone else)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Quincel said:

    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    Lennon said:

    Somewhat O/T but I've just found a 'Motorcycle Alliance' candidate standing in Manchester (Old Moat) - Maybe it's just me, but that seems somewhat specific for a local election campaign.

    Actually, I reckon for a local campaign really specific issues like that make more sense. You can campaign more sensibly on wanting to ditch one set of speedbumps in the ward as councillor than if you care only about speedbumps across the city but want to be the MEP.
    isam said:

    UKIP Euro vote share

    Under/Over 26.5 5/6

    Any takers?

    I'll have some of that? You take £30, £45, or £60 bet?

    EDIT: I mean I'll bet Over, just to clarify.
    Lets keep it to £30, I was kind of hoping ICM lovers would go under!
    Deal. And see you next Friday hopefully.
    Yes, hope to see you there
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    BobaFett said:

    Populus yet again appears to have under polled Lab2010. I make no partisan point but just an FYI.

    Weighted sample (compared to actual 2010)

    Con +2.4
    Lab -4.2
    Lib +1.7

    This over polling of Con and under polling of Lab is becoming a theme. There may be a good reason for it. Anyone have any idea?

    Well embarrassment is the obvious one. Did you vote for Gordon Brown at the last election? Well...I might have done (sigh).

    o_O Is this a hypothetical or an admission ?
    I am really hurt you don't read any of my posts!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    BobaFett said:

    Populus yet again appears to have under polled Lab2010. I make no partisan point but just an FYI.

    Weighted sample (compared to actual 2010)

    Con +2.4
    Lab -4.2
    Lib +1.7

    This over polling of Con and under polling of Lab is becoming a theme. There may be a good reason for it. Anyone have any idea?

    Well embarrassment is the obvious one. Did you vote for Gordon Brown at the last election? Well...I might have done (sigh).

    o_O Is this a hypothetical or an admission ?
    I am really hurt you don't read any of my posts!
    I do - And have you down as Scottish Conservative #1 voter. I take it that is a hypothetical planned
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2014
    isam said:



    [quoting Nigel Farage]

    "The way I do politics is to say what I actually think. Sometimes people strongly disagree with me. But I hope that everyone realises that my opinions are quite straightforward and are based on profound beliefs. Unlike Mr Cameron’s they are not changed more often than many people change their socks.

    Indeed, I sometimes wonder if the Prime Minister actually believes in anything much at all, apart from furthering his own career prospects. That’s why I find it so laughable when people blame me for him being in the doldrums. I’ll take my share of the blame – or should that be the credit? – but most of it he has brought on himself."

    What an unpleasant person he is.

    His own beliefs are so straightforward, profound and unchanging that the manifesto which he helped launch with two colleagues in April 2010, and of which he co-authored the preface, had become 'drivel' by January 2014.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:



    [quoting Nigel Farage]

    "The way I do politics is to say what I actually think. Sometimes people strongly disagree with me. But I hope that everyone realises that my opinions are quite straightforward and are based on profound beliefs. Unlike Mr Cameron’s they are not changed more often than many people change their socks.

    Indeed, I sometimes wonder if the Prime Minister actually believes in anything much at all, apart from furthering his own career prospects. That’s why I find it so laughable when people blame me for him being in the doldrums. I’ll take my share of the blame – or should that be the credit? – but most of it he has brought on himself."

    What an unpleasant person he is.

    His own beliefs are so straightforward, profound and unchanging that the manifesto which he helped launch with two colleagues in April 2010, and of which he co-authored the preface, had become 'drivel' by January 2014.
    He's a politician Richard.

    When he changes his mind it is because he is capable of listening to the Great British public and learning from them. When his opponents change their mind it is because they are hopeless opportunists without an ounce of principle, or spineless weaklings at the mercy of special interests.

    Why act so precious about it? Cameron has doubtless made similarly ludicrous claims about his own politics and that of his opponents.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:



    [quoting Nigel Farage]

    "The way I do politics is to say what I actually think. Sometimes people strongly disagree with me. But I hope that everyone realises that my opinions are quite straightforward and are based on profound beliefs. Unlike Mr Cameron’s they are not changed more often than many people change their socks.

    Indeed, I sometimes wonder if the Prime Minister actually believes in anything much at all, apart from furthering his own career prospects. That’s why I find it so laughable when people blame me for him being in the doldrums. I’ll take my share of the blame – or should that be the credit? – but most of it he has brought on himself."

    What an unpleasant person he is.

    His own beliefs are so straightforward, profound and unchanging that the manifesto which he helped launch with two colleagues in April 2010, and of which he co-authored the preface, had become 'drivel' by January 2014.
    Per the thread the other day I still find the idea of disliking a political party somewhat strange. Labour contains many well meaning and capable people for example. I can bring myself to dislike particular politicians and Farage has definitely moved into that category of late. From a vaguely humorous demagogue to a frankly hypocritical boor.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @BobaFett

    Yes - £12. (Until this year it was £10 + tip, but it has just gone up to £12 + tip)

    Run by a lovely Cypriot lady and her brother. Dad still comes in on a Saturday, in theory to help out, but mainly because he gets bored at home. Only negative is the brother is an Arsenal fan.

    http://www.allinlondon.co.uk/directory/1183/16678.php

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:



    [quoting Nigel Farage]

    "The way I do politics is to say what I actually think. Sometimes people strongly disagree with me. But I hope that everyone realises that my opinions are quite straightforward and are based on profound beliefs. Unlike Mr Cameron’s they are not changed more often than many people change their socks.

    Indeed, I sometimes wonder if the Prime Minister actually believes in anything much at all, apart from furthering his own career prospects. That’s why I find it so laughable when people blame me for him being in the doldrums. I’ll take my share of the blame – or should that be the credit? – but most of it he has brought on himself."

    What an unpleasant person he is.

    His own beliefs are so straightforward, profound and unchanging that the manifesto which he helped launch with two colleagues in April 2010, and of which he co-authored the preface, had become 'drivel' by January 2014.
    Farage may be an unpleasant person, I wouldn't know, but his comments about Cameron will strike a chord with many.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2014
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Why act so precious about it? Cameron has doubtless made similarly ludicrous claims about his own politics and that of his opponents.

    It's the personalised nastiness towards Cameron which is strange. I get the very strong impression from UKIP, and Farage in particular, that they simply want to damage Cameron personally, even if as a by-product that damages the country (and indeed sets back their own cause, or what they present as their own cause).

    At least when Labour make personal attacks, it's in the hope that it will help them form the government.
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