This came up before where journalists etc compared the number of dependents visas against the number of worker visas in the past year, but the dependents visas mostly were for workers who had come to the the UK in previous years.
I don't know if the same is happening here but the Cameroon figures for example would imply each worker has an averageof 14 of their own children under 18 plus possibly their partner, which is a struggle on the sniff test
Not much sign of "thousands of workers throwing a "sickie"" if the crowded tube I was travelling on half an hour ago was any guide.
I'm not sure as many people care about the football as many would think, hope or have you believe. I'm sure as and when we progress further, interest will rise but last eight is still a bit early to get excited.
On topic, Tryl's analysis is interesting and Kemi Badenoch (approval -22) isn't perhaps running as hot as Opinium would have us believe or is it all measured in a different way?
A very good poll for Labour who as we all suspected are "enjoying" a Burnham Bounce - they enjoyed a Blair Bounce (long lasting and significant) and a Brown Bounce (much shorter duration and much less significant).
I'm still struggling to see how Reform are "finished" - I bet many other parties would like to be down and out on 26% of the vote share. The weekly local council by-elections continue to show strong Reform performances (often at the expense of any and all the main parties) but low turnout local contests are one thing, higher turnout contests quite another.
Burnham, uncomfortably, has to prove he can deliver though perception is everything and statistics much less so. I do see a much more political and less technocratic Prime Minister and it will be interesting to see how Government communications (or spin if you prefer) improves on his watch.
There's a strong possibility he'll be elected (not re-elected but you know what I mean) in 2028-29 simply on the perception of improved times and tidings rather than any empirical evidence. That and the combined inadequacies of the opposition parties of course.
I'm not sure how long the Burnham bounce will last. He does not have much room for new initiatives and from what he has said so far, he appears to be staying fairly close to Starmerism and/or re-heated Blairism.
A big factor in that will be who wins the Greater Manchester mayoral election on 30th July.
And how far England gets and if petrol gets below 140 for a while.
This came up before where journalists etc compared the number of dependents visas against the number of worker visas in the past year, but the dependents visas mostly were for workers who had come to the the UK in previous years.
I don't know if the same is happening here but the Cameroon figures for example would imply each worker has an averageof 14 of their own children under 18 plus possibly their partner, which is a struggle on the sniff test
Could be parents, and partner's parents included?
Don't think they're eligible. Only partner and children under 18 of the person with a worker visa.
Should add I don't think the new rule removing dependents visas for most temporary immigrant workers is a good idea. Ultimately this immigration is a transaction where the UK allows the temporary immigration in its interest. Not allowing people to bring their families for the duration of their time here makes it much less attractive to good candidates.
Not much sign of "thousands of workers throwing a "sickie"" if the crowded tube I was travelling on half an hour ago was any guide.
I'm not sure as many people care about the football as many would think, hope or have you believe. I'm sure as and when we progress further, interest will rise but last eight is still a bit early to get excited.
On topic, Tryl's analysis is interesting and Kemi Badenoch (approval -22) isn't perhaps running as hot as Opinium would have us believe or is it all measured in a different way?
A very good poll for Labour who as we all suspected are "enjoying" a Burnham Bounce - they enjoyed a Blair Bounce (long lasting and significant) and a Brown Bounce (much shorter duration and much less significant).
I'm still struggling to see how Reform are "finished" - I bet many other parties would like to be down and out on 26% of the vote share. The weekly local council by-elections continue to show strong Reform performances (often at the expense of any and all the main parties) but low turnout local contests are one thing, higher turnout contests quite another.
Burnham, uncomfortably, has to prove he can deliver though perception is everything and statistics much less so. I do see a much more political and less technocratic Prime Minister and it will be interesting to see how Government communications (or spin if you prefer) improves on his watch.
There's a strong possibility he'll be elected (not re-elected but you know what I mean) in 2028-29 simply on the perception of improved times and tidings rather than any empirical evidence. That and the combined inadequacies of the opposition parties of course.
Evening Stodge. Nothing personal, but of all the anecdontal observations anyone could possibly have written about, that the London tube - in a city with a population of about 10 million people - still seems to be busy today is one of the most useless imo. The London tube would still seem busy even if 30% of the people who normally use it stopped using it for some reason on a particular day.
I travel regularly on the London Underground and I know quiet from busy. Even now, six and a bit years on, the tube is not as busy as it was before the pandemic.
I also know Mondays and Fridays are quieter days because a lot of people work from home.
So, when I get on a train in central London at 5pm on a Monday and it's as crowded as it used to be before the pandemic I know two things -first, there aren't as many trains are there used to be and second, everyone seems to have gone into work.
It's not meant to be a scientifically proveable thesis but anecdotal.
Thank you for that steer to the 1970 England football song Back Home. I've been playing it on loop. It's absolutely great yet never gets a look in. Why is that? I think I know why.
Because it's from a bygone age. There's no post modern irony or clever clever lyrics. All you've got is a strong simple tune, heartfelt words, and the team just singing it straight, trying to hold the tune, taking pride in that, no attempt to 'rap' or be funny.
Maybe it's me getting old but I find it hugely refreshing. It harks back to a world when football was not about the ballon d'or or golden boot or lavish goal celebrations by superstar brand owners, it was about public service by a collective.
"We'll give all we've got to give ... for the folks back home"
That's how it finishes and it's clear they mean it.
Migrant workers are still bringing in family members at a ratio as high as 15 for every worker despite new restrictions, according to Home Office figures.
Just 12 health and care visas were issued to workers from Cameroon last year but a total of 180 visas were issued to family members from the same country in the year to March, in statistics branded “shocking” by the Conservatives.
This was a ratio of 15 to one for migrants from Cameroon in the 12 month period, although the dependants do not necessarily relate to the migrant worker because family members can join main applicants who arrived in the UK in previous years.
There were 257 health and care worker visas issued to Ghanaians in the same period, and 2,131 visas issued to family members.
China seems to be finding a way around the embargo on the most advanced western lithography tools, by innovating its own advances, if the claims here are true. https://x.com/LinQingV/status/2073945147046506656
This came up before where journalists etc compared the number of dependents visas against the number of worker visas in the past year, but the dependents visas mostly were for workers who had come to the the UK in previous years.
I don't know if the same is happening here but the Cameroon figures for example would imply each worker has an averageof 14 of their own children under 18 plus possibly their partner, which is a struggle on the sniff test
Okay. So sloppy data then as it pools into the dependents people coming who already had someone here from a previous year.
That makes sense and, you’re correct, it doesn’t pass the sniff test.
You’d think the journalist would have scrutinised it.
It depends on whether the number of care workers from each source is increasing or decreasing.
It would also be interesting to know how many care workers of earlier years are still working as care workers.
This came up before where journalists etc compared the number of dependents visas against the number of worker visas in the past year, but the dependents visas mostly were for workers who had come to the the UK in previous years.
I don't know if the same is happening here but the Cameroon figures for example would imply each worker has an averageof 14 of their own children under 18 plus possibly their partner, which is a struggle on the sniff test
Okay. So sloppy data then as it pools into the dependents people coming who already had someone here from a previous year.
That makes sense and, you’re correct, it doesn’t pass the sniff test.
You’d think the journalist would have scrutinised it.
It depends on whether the number of care workers from each source is increasing or decreasing.
It would also be interesting to know how many care workers of earlier years are still working as care workers.
Migrant workers are still bringing in family members at a ratio as high as 15 for every worker despite new restrictions, according to Home Office figures.
Just 12 health and care visas were issued to workers from Cameroon last year but a total of 180 visas were issued to family members from the same country in the year to March, in statistics branded “shocking” by the Conservatives.
This was a ratio of 15 to one for migrants from Cameroon in the 12 month period, although the dependants do not necessarily relate to the migrant worker because family members can join main applicants who arrived in the UK in previous years.
There were 257 health and care worker visas issued to Ghanaians in the same period, and 2,131 visas issued to family members.
Remember that Angela Rayner says it would be 'un-British' to place any restrictions on these people.
At least that quote is acknowledging that the dependents don't have to have any connection to the visas issued this year.
And that ratio is pretty much what you would expect if the number of health and care visas issued per year were to plummet. The change is from big number divided by big number to big number divided by small number. It's just maths.
It's not as if Conservative MPs don't have direct experience of big numbers suddenly turning into small numbers.
Unpopular? Nonsense. He's so likeable total strangers give him £5m just to ensure he can afford groceries, without expecting anything in return.
And, of course, he would still never favour that total stranger despite their generosity. I know when someone gifts me millions I think of them entirely neutrally, possibly even a bit hostile.
Admittedly Dimitrov didn’t play his best but even in losing he showed what a classy person he is .
Fery beat Cobolli his QF opponent at the Australian Open in January but the Italian was carrying an injury and is playing some great tennis at the moment so will be the clear favourite .
Regardless after the very poor start for GB players it’s great to see Fery keeping the flag flying . At 5 foot 9 you have to work much harder to compete with the vast majority of players who are easily over 6 foot but he moves very well and never gives up so you never know .
I'm in a bar in Belgrade and it has the WC match on so sort of watching it. Why is neither country playing in anything like their national colours?
Portugal are?
Their flag is red and green, not maroon
England’s flag is red and white and we play in blue and white. Italy play in blue and white, Germany white and black etc.
Spain can’t wear their colours (even though they wear red and blue despite red and yellow being their main colours) because Portugal are the home team so wear their red shirts and Spain wear their second strip.
I am genuinely surprised she is not being a hypocrite about it, as that is the usual approach. Even though the real reason would be they would do badly too, they still made a choice to make a positive out of it rather than join the usual calls and pretend she'd never said anything else.
Kemi Badenoch unhypocritically rejects a snap election while her party is on 18% and firmly in third place, and would lose seats even compared with the record breaking 2024 disaster.
Unpopular? Nonsense. He's so likeable total strangers give him £5m just to ensure he can afford groceries, without expecting anything in return.
And, of course, he would still never favour that total stranger despite their generosity. I know when someone gifts me millions I think of them entirely neutrally, possibly even a bit hostile.
If he can find another secret donor, he can give all this money back and it will keep him good until all that is uncovered a couple of years later.
Kemi Badenoch unhypocritically rejects a snap election while her party is on 18% and firmly in third place, and would lose seats even compared with the record breaking 2024 disaster.
Except there was never going to be an election, so it would have been easy to grandstand. As I said, credit where it's due.
I'm not a Badenoch fan, but I think it's only fair to acknowledge decentish behaviour
Migrant workers are still bringing in family members at a ratio as high as 15 for every worker despite new restrictions, according to Home Office figures.
Just 12 health and care visas were issued to workers from Cameroon last year but a total of 180 visas were issued to family members from the same country in the year to March, in statistics branded “shocking” by the Conservatives.
This was a ratio of 15 to one for migrants from Cameroon in the 12 month period, although the dependants do not necessarily relate to the migrant worker because family members can join main applicants who arrived in the UK in previous years.
There were 257 health and care worker visas issued to Ghanaians in the same period, and 2,131 visas issued to family members.
Remember that Angela Rayner says it would be 'un-British' to place any restrictions on these people.
At least that quote is acknowledging that the dependents don't have to have any connection to the visas issued this year.
And that ratio is pretty much what you would expect if the number of health and care visas issued per year were to plummet. The change is from big number divided by big number to big number divided by small number. It's just maths.
It's not as if Conservative MPs don't have direct experience of big numbers suddenly turning into small numbers.
There's lots of data we don't know.
How the number of new migrant care workers is changing each year.
How many of the care worker migrants of earlier years are still working as care workers.
What the spread of dependents per migrant worker is - an average of 5 could mean 1 with 0 and 1 with 10.
What we can be sure of though is that the system has been abused and will continue to be abused by some migrant care workers and by some 'employers'.
Kemi Badenoch unhypocritically rejects a snap election while her party is on 18% and firmly in third place, and would lose seats even compared with the record breaking 2024 disaster.
Except there was never going to be an election, so it would have been easy to grandstand. As I said, credit where it's due.
I'm not a Badenoch fan, but I think it's only fair to acknowledge decentish behaviour
Credit for being meaningless seems cheap to me. Badenoch could have said, my job is to be ready whenever the next election is called.
Migrant workers are still bringing in family members at a ratio as high as 15 for every worker despite new restrictions, according to Home Office figures.
Just 12 health and care visas were issued to workers from Cameroon last year but a total of 180 visas were issued to family members from the same country in the year to March, in statistics branded “shocking” by the Conservatives.
This was a ratio of 15 to one for migrants from Cameroon in the 12 month period, although the dependants do not necessarily relate to the migrant worker because family members can join main applicants who arrived in the UK in previous years.
There were 257 health and care worker visas issued to Ghanaians in the same period, and 2,131 visas issued to family members.
Remember that Angela Rayner says it would be 'un-British' to place any restrictions on these people.
At least that quote is acknowledging that the dependents don't have to have any connection to the visas issued this year.
And that ratio is pretty much what you would expect if the number of health and care visas issued per year were to plummet. The change is from big number divided by big number to big number divided by small number. It's just maths.
It's not as if Conservative MPs don't have direct experience of big numbers suddenly turning into small numbers.
There's lots of data we don't know.
How the number of new migrant care workers is changing each year.
How many of the care worker migrants of earlier years are still working as care workers.
What the spread of dependents per migrant worker is - an average of 5 could mean 1 with 0 and 1 with 10.
What we can be sure of though is that the system has been abused and will continue to be abused by some migrant care workers and by some 'employers'.
The abuse happening here is purely an abuse of statistics. An abuse furthermore that is deliberate, or at best extremely careless.
Migrant workers are still bringing in family members at a ratio as high as 15 for every worker despite new restrictions, according to Home Office figures.
Just 12 health and care visas were issued to workers from Cameroon last year but a total of 180 visas were issued to family members from the same country in the year to March, in statistics branded “shocking” by the Conservatives.
This was a ratio of 15 to one for migrants from Cameroon in the 12 month period, although the dependants do not necessarily relate to the migrant worker because family members can join main applicants who arrived in the UK in previous years.
There were 257 health and care worker visas issued to Ghanaians in the same period, and 2,131 visas issued to family members.
Remember that Angela Rayner says it would be 'un-British' to place any restrictions on these people.
At least that quote is acknowledging that the dependents don't have to have any connection to the visas issued this year.
And that ratio is pretty much what you would expect if the number of health and care visas issued per year were to plummet. The change is from big number divided by big number to big number divided by small number. It's just maths.
It's not as if Conservative MPs don't have direct experience of big numbers suddenly turning into small numbers.
There's lots of data we don't know.
How the number of new migrant care workers is changing each year.
How many of the care worker migrants of earlier years are still working as care workers.
What the spread of dependents per migrant worker is - an average of 5 could mean 1 with 0 and 1 with 10.
What we can be sure of though is that the system has been abused and will continue to be abused by some migrant care workers and by some 'employers'.
Or more simply the care workers that came in the Boriswave are now wanting to bring in the dependents that they left in the old country. It doesn't mean the system is being abused.
One of our Ghanaian nuses still has her son in Ghana with her own mother, but clearly that is not great in the long term. She can only get to see him once or twice a year. I don't think this unusual.
Migrant workers are still bringing in family members at a ratio as high as 15 for every worker despite new restrictions, according to Home Office figures.
Just 12 health and care visas were issued to workers from Cameroon last year but a total of 180 visas were issued to family members from the same country in the year to March, in statistics branded “shocking” by the Conservatives.
This was a ratio of 15 to one for migrants from Cameroon in the 12 month period, although the dependants do not necessarily relate to the migrant worker because family members can join main applicants who arrived in the UK in previous years.
There were 257 health and care worker visas issued to Ghanaians in the same period, and 2,131 visas issued to family members.
Remember that Angela Rayner says it would be 'un-British' to place any restrictions on these people.
At least that quote is acknowledging that the dependents don't have to have any connection to the visas issued this year.
And that ratio is pretty much what you would expect if the number of health and care visas issued per year were to plummet. The change is from big number divided by big number to big number divided by small number. It's just maths.
It's not as if Conservative MPs don't have direct experience of big numbers suddenly turning into small numbers.
There's lots of data we don't know.
How the number of new migrant care workers is changing each year.
How many of the care worker migrants of earlier years are still working as care workers.
What the spread of dependents per migrant worker is - an average of 5 could mean 1 with 0 and 1 with 10.
What we can be sure of though is that the system has been abused and will continue to be abused by some migrant care workers and by some 'employers'.
The abuse happening here is purely an abuse of statistics. An abuse furthermore that is deliberate, or at best extremely careless.
The Times spreading it for three paragraphs and then debunking it in paragraph four is tabloid shit. Has every paper fallen?
Migrant workers are still bringing in family members at a ratio as high as 15 for every worker despite new restrictions, according to Home Office figures.
Just 12 health and care visas were issued to workers from Cameroon last year but a total of 180 visas were issued to family members from the same country in the year to March, in statistics branded “shocking” by the Conservatives.
This was a ratio of 15 to one for migrants from Cameroon in the 12 month period, although the dependants do not necessarily relate to the migrant worker because family members can join main applicants who arrived in the UK in previous years.
There were 257 health and care worker visas issued to Ghanaians in the same period, and 2,131 visas issued to family members.
Remember that Angela Rayner says it would be 'un-British' to place any restrictions on these people.
At least that quote is acknowledging that the dependents don't have to have any connection to the visas issued this year.
And that ratio is pretty much what you would expect if the number of health and care visas issued per year were to plummet. The change is from big number divided by big number to big number divided by small number. It's just maths.
It's not as if Conservative MPs don't have direct experience of big numbers suddenly turning into small numbers.
There's lots of data we don't know.
How the number of new migrant care workers is changing each year.
How many of the care worker migrants of earlier years are still working as care workers.
What the spread of dependents per migrant worker is - an average of 5 could mean 1 with 0 and 1 with 10.
What we can be sure of though is that the system has been abused and will continue to be abused by some migrant care workers and by some 'employers'.
Or more simply the care workers that came in the Boriswave are now wanting to bring in the dependents that they left in the old country. It doesn't mean the system is being abused.
One of our Ghanaian nuses still has her son in Ghana with her own mother, but clearly that is not great in the long term. She can only get to see him once or twice a year. I don't think this unusual.
Sidenote: a few years ago we were discussing on here the idea that calling immigrants a "wave" was terribly rude. This seems to have been suspended now with the boriswave.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/live/czxr1p3n461t
https://www.gov.uk/health-care-worker-visa/your-partner-and-children
Should add I don't think the new rule removing dependents visas for most temporary immigrant workers is a good idea. Ultimately this immigration is a transaction where the UK allows the temporary immigration in its interest. Not allowing people to bring their families for the duration of their time here makes it much less attractive to good candidates.
The White House scaffolding keep getting higher….wtf is he doing?
https://x.com/WUTangKids/status/2074113880985387025
I also know Mondays and Fridays are quieter days because a lot of people work from home.
So, when I get on a train in central London at 5pm on a Monday and it's as crowded as it used to be before the pandemic I know two things -first, there aren't as many trains are there used to be and second, everyone seems to have gone into work.
It's not meant to be a scientifically proveable thesis but anecdotal.
Thank you for that steer to the 1970 England football song Back Home. I've been playing it on loop. It's absolutely great yet never gets a look in. Why is that? I think I know why.
Because it's from a bygone age. There's no post modern irony or clever clever lyrics. All you've got is a strong simple tune, heartfelt words, and the team just singing it straight, trying to hold the tune, taking pride in that, no attempt to 'rap' or be funny.
Maybe it's me getting old but I find it hugely refreshing. It harks back to a world when football was not about the ballon d'or or golden boot or lavish goal celebrations by superstar brand owners, it was about public service by a collective.
"We'll give all we've got to give ... for the folks back home"
That's how it finishes and it's clear they mean it.
Farage took funding from a convicted criminal & didnt declare it
BBC presenter "our chief political correspondent Henry Zeffeman joins us. Whats the fuss about Henry?"
Migrant workers are still bringing in family members at a ratio as high as 15 for every worker despite new restrictions, according to Home Office figures.
Just 12 health and care visas were issued to workers from Cameroon last year but a total of 180 visas were issued to family members from the same country in the year to March, in statistics branded “shocking” by the Conservatives.
This was a ratio of 15 to one for migrants from Cameroon in the 12 month period, although the dependants do not necessarily relate to the migrant worker because family members can join main applicants who arrived in the UK in previous years.
There were 257 health and care worker visas issued to Ghanaians in the same period, and 2,131 visas issued to family members.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/migrant-care-workers-family-members-dependants-rules-b6z776xs7
Remember that Angela Rayner says it would be 'un-British' to place any restrictions on these people.
Huzzah!!
https://x.com/LinQingV/status/2073945147046506656
It would also be interesting to know how many care workers of earlier years are still working as care workers.
England expects etc
England expects etc
And that ratio is pretty much what you would expect if the number of health and care visas issued per year were to plummet. The change is from big number divided by big number to big number divided by small number. It's just maths.
It's not as if Conservative MPs don't have direct experience of big numbers suddenly turning into small numbers.
What times.
It is part of our national story.
But in spite of all temptations to belong to other nations, he remains an Englishman.
(And appears to have dropped the accent - "Féry")
17 Republicans voted no.
https://x.com/DemzDeliver/status/2074201890569494639
Fery beat Cobolli his QF opponent at the Australian Open in January but the Italian was carrying an injury and is playing some great tennis at the moment so will be the clear favourite .
Regardless after the very poor start for GB players it’s great to see Fery keeping the flag flying . At 5 foot 9 you have to work much harder to compete with the vast majority of players who are easily over 6 foot but he moves very well and never gives up so you never know .
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62115ym3mmo?app-referrer=search
Spain can’t wear their colours (even though they wear red and blue despite red and yellow being their main colours) because Portugal are the home team so wear their red shirts and Spain wear their second strip.
Kemi Badenoch says she is "not a hypocrite" so won't call for a snap election under Andy Burnham
"When [the Tories] changed Prime Ministers, I didn't say let's have an election. So why would I suddenly change my tune now Labour is in?"
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2074188534718595531
roflcopter
It's not as though I'm going to vote for her.
NEW THREAD
We could call it kicking the cash down the road.
As I said, credit where it's due.
I'm not a Badenoch fan, but I think it's only fair to acknowledge decentish behaviour
How the number of new migrant care workers is changing each year.
How many of the care worker migrants of earlier years are still working as care workers.
What the spread of dependents per migrant worker is - an average of 5 could mean 1 with 0 and 1 with 10.
What we can be sure of though is that the system has been abused and will continue to be abused by some migrant care workers and by some 'employers'.
One of our Ghanaian nuses still has her son in Ghana with her own mother, but clearly that is not great in the long term. She can only get to see him once or twice a year. I don't think this unusual.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWrKbcOqBCg
(These are held in many cities, large and small.)
(I have no problem with wave or Boriswave.)