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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stand by for Ed’s next unlikely election victory. CON win m

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Easy target for people who want to do UKIP parodies.. but worth a read at face value

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisstokelwalker/why-attendees-at-ukip-biggest-ever-rally-was-there
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP are 5/1 in Castle Point with Ladbrokes.

    The party topped the poll there in the 2004 euro election.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,209
    edited April 2014
    DavidL said:


    SNP MSP Sandra White: "With a Yes vote we can avoid any further cuts to Scotland's budget"

    Only a YES vote can unlock the orchards of money trees.....
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    And a word for Mike's sponsors.

    An ad on PB for me is by FM Global entitled: The Cost of Scottish Independence.

    Have not looked at it yet, but downloadable from:
    http://www.fmglobal-touchpoints.co.uk/news-analysis-3-14.htm?utm_source=tp-remarketing&utm_medium=bnr-v2&utm_content=sr-news-mar-14&utm_campaign
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,744
    Anyone know what the deadline is for publication of Statement of Persons Nominated for Metropolitan Locals? Manchester is still not up (unless I just can't find it on their website) - but almost everyone else is that I've looked at.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2014
    Did I see a dead squirrel this morning?

    Or was it just another one of OGH's postiches?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,056
    @isam Welcome back !
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,941
    BobaFett said:

    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut? And (as most but not all of us are male) what about the wives/girlfriends of PBers?

    £5.50.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,339
    edited April 2014
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP are 5/1 in Castle Point with Ladbrokes.

    The party topped the poll there in the 2004 euro election.

    Is Bob Spink standing again? If so, they're a good shot, otherwise I would think UKIP will find themselves stuck at 30% - a great result, but not enough in an environment where the BNP get zero, and the Libs little more.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,056
    edited April 2014
    AveryLP said:

    Did I see a dead squirrel this morning?

    Or was it just another one of OGH's postiches?

    Where is 'pouter - He can finally put those goalposts down... Or can he.

    Think he needs crossover ALP.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Easy target for people who want to do UKIP parodies...

    Honestly what have you kippers started??

    Zimbabwe??

    Over on the express thread the best liked comments are calling for the return of Rhodesia....
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,925

    Another day, another load of IndyRef bollocks, from both sides:

    Ed Miliband: Tackling the issue [of zero hours contracts] would be "harder" in an independent Scotland. Why on earth would that be? An independent Scottish government could enact exactly the same regulations as a UK government if it so wished.

    What Brown cleverly did was extoll the virtues of the Union without getting into 'bash the Tories' - yesterday Alexander, and it appears today, Miliband, has fallen into that trap - 'stick with us ferrets in a sack' - and of course perfectly timed to coincide with a poll that might be interpreted as 'Tory win in 2015 more likely' (not by me, I suspect its 'noise' on a narrowing Labour lead). The fate of the Union is in the hands of Labour voters in Scotland - and, god help us, Labour politicians.....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Castle Point had the highest percentage of owner occupiers at one point in recent years.

    Bit of an isolated part of the country. I've been to Wick and Thurso but not Canvey Island.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,209
    isam said:

    Easy target for people who want to do UKIP parodies.. but worth a read at face value

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisstokelwalker/why-attendees-at-ukip-biggest-ever-rally-was-there

    6. Farage gained support from the audience when describing UKIP as patriotic with a small “p”.

    ....small, but happening with annoying regularity through the night.....
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Once again we see the usual suspects get overexcited about just one poll!
    Happens every time...
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    isam said:

    Easy target for people who want to do UKIP parodies.. but worth a read at face value

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisstokelwalker/why-attendees-at-ukip-biggest-ever-rally-was-there

    6. Farage gained support from the audience when describing UKIP as patriotic with a small “p”.

    ....small, but happening with annoying regularity through the night.....
    So Nigel Farage has a small p....
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Lennon said:

    Anyone know what the deadline is for publication of Statement of Persons Nominated for Metropolitan Locals? Manchester is still not up (unless I just can't find it on their website) - but almost everyone else is that I've looked at.

    4pm today I believe.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    What Brown cleverly did was extoll the virtues of the Union without getting into 'bash the Tories' - yesterday Alexander, and it appears today, Miliband, has fallen into that trap

    What's wrong with bashing the Tories?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Did I see a dead squirrel this morning?

    Perhaps it was a super rat? they are getting quite popular in Labour constituencies, where the seven-a-day departments are fully staffed and the bins emptied every three weeks.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    I don't know what Robert Spink's doing these days. He wasn't actually a UKIP candidate in 2010, standing as an "Independent Save Our Green Belt" candidate. He was a UKIP MP between April and November 2008.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    isam said:

    Easy target for people who want to do UKIP parodies.. but worth a read at face value

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisstokelwalker/why-attendees-at-ukip-biggest-ever-rally-was-there

    The Buzzfeed account seems very different from the Independent's 'UKIP will hold the balance of power'. Both were writing about the Gateshead meeting.

    "Asked how UKIP could translate a strong showing in European elections on May 22 into a good national showing, Farage had few answers.

    “Beats me,” he said. “If I knew that, I wouldn’t tell you. I’d keep it tucked up my sleeve.

    “We know the first past the post system is very cruel for a party like UKIP. We’re not geographic based, we’re not class based. It makes it very, very hard for us. But if we get the big M [momentum] going in these European elections and we target seats intelligently as the Lib Dems under Ashdown did, we could. We’ve got some learning to do, but we could do it.”"


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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,209
    BobaFett said:

    Once again we see the usual suspects get overexcited about just one poll!
    Happens every time...

    Once again, those who see light at the end of the tunnel are failing to spot it is really the oncoming Train of Doom!

    With hilarious consequences....
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The other side to the equation was that there was an assumption that the capital value of the asset the loan was secured against was strong enough that even if the loan did go bad, the bank would get its money back. This was a gross misjudgement. In any case, the financial industry is so interconnected that packaging up all the dodgy loans and selling them on only makes sense if there's no systemic crisis in either the financial sector or the economy at large which has a material impact on the entire book. As economies go through downturns every so often, that assumption was also deeply flawed with the result that the entire system became contaminated.

    To be fair, the assumption that they made was that the individual housing markets in each US state were not correlated (which was reasonable based on historical data). What they failed to account for was (a) the increased interconnectedness of the US economy and (b) the macro factors that were pushing prices up across the board



    In any case, I don't accept the either/or analysis. The responsibility for a loan lies with both the borrower *and* the lender. Remember that when a bank makes a loan, it's putting both its depositors' money and its shareholder value at risk so it can't simply write off responsibility.

    That is 100% the truth. A lot of the problem comes from the fact that the banks set up mortgage warehouses to feed their securitisation businesses. These were then fed by brokers - who never had their capital at risk and were prepared to "bend" lending standards because all they cared about was the arrangement fee.

    Forcing the original lender to retain some skin in the game, even if they securitise the loan, would help a lot
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    If my bank manager is interested, he can't have enough to do.

    Nick I very much doubt that your bank manager is interested.

    It's not that relevant to his lending decisions.

    But the regulators have told him to ask the question. So he has to waste your time, and his, asking pointless and intrusive questions.

    See the problem with government/regulatory micromanagement of business?
    Seconded - Know Your Customer bollocks has just got plain out of hand. My brother and I were comparing banking stories at the weekend, it's now easier to open an account in "bureaucratic" Germany than the UK. As ever the checks just penalise the law-abiding and the real crooks ignore them and carry on regardless.
    Yes, I've told the story here before but it's silly enough to be worth repeating. I've banked with the same bank for over 40 years. When I was an MP, I went into my local branch and asked if I could transfer the account to that branch. They looked horrified and said surely I didn't want to bother. I said yes, it would be nice to have a branch near where I lived so I could maintain a personal relationship, get advice from someone I knew, etc.

    So they produced a form of several pages, clearly designed to investigate whether I was a money-launderer and whether I was who I said I was. Everyone in the branch knew me personally, and neither the account number nor any other aspect of the account with respect to the authorities would change.

    I gave up, and my account is still in the Pall Mall branch where it was set up ca. 1971, and which I've not visited for decades. "Know your bank manager?" As if.

    I suppose there's something to be said for a few question to borrowers, to encourage them to think carefully themselves. But it does seem to me an area where government intervention combines ineffectiveness with irritation to a remarkable degree.

    Did you vote for the new system of regulation that the last government introduced? If so then you are partially culpable.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,176
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP are 5/1 in Castle Point with Ladbrokes.

    The party topped the poll there in the 2004 euro election.

    Is Bob Spink standing again? If so, they're a good shot, otherwise I would think UKIP will find themselves stuck at 30% - a great result, but not enough in an environment where the BNP get zero, and the Libs little more.
    Bob's a typical Kipper; hated or loved. IIRC he's got mixed up in some strange land or development deal. Tory organisation in CP was very strong when I liived, and politicked, there, but there's a very strong Canvey Island Independence Party now.
    Don't know what their relationship with UKIP is, if any.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Once again we see the usual suspects get overexcited about just one poll!
    Happens every time...

    Once again, those who see light at the end of the tunnel are failing to spot it is really the oncoming Train of Doom!

    With hilarious consequences....
    Well indeed. You said it....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Stupid comment from a Londoner on the BuzzFeed page:

    "Chris Anderson · London, United Kingdom
    Incredible that out of all of these people, not one of them isn't white... in fact, if you look at the picture of the entire hall - at UKIP's "biggest ever public meeting" - not one of them are not white either... Each person should have held a piece of paper up saying "because I'm a racist, ignorant, bigot.""


    Gateshead isn't exactly London on the multi-ethnic front. Maybe he should get out more.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    judging by Populus the tory voters are back home from their Easter Holidays. Oh and next week we have Q1 GDP figures out and most people will be getting their April Pay packets in with the new £10K tax allowance. The good news just keeps on coming, wages up, inflation down, unemployment down, growth up, defecit down, crime down. After the Euros UKIPs star will wane and I expect by the Autumn we will see a growing tory lead barring major black swan events
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2014

    Charles said:

    If my bank manager is interested, he can't have enough to do.

    Nick I very much doubt that your bank manager is interested.

    It's not that relevant to his lending decisions.

    But the regulators have told him to ask the question. So he has to waste your time, and his, asking pointless and intrusive questions.

    See the problem with government/regulatory micromanagement of business?
    But it does seem to me an area where government intervention combines ineffectiveness with irritation to a remarkable degree.

    Sheesh.

    And how many pieces of legislation that do exactly that, did you vote for whilst still an MP?

    Welcome to everyone else's world.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,925
    Neil said:


    What Brown cleverly did was extoll the virtues of the Union without getting into 'bash the Tories' - yesterday Alexander, and it appears today, Miliband, has fallen into that trap

    What's wrong with bashing the Tories?
    Better Together?

    Labour spent the Thatcher administration demonising 'rule from London' and started the Independence bandwagon rolling with devolution - its their voters who will decide the outcome, and if narrowing polls lead Scots to believe a Tory win in 2015 is more likely, so too will be independence - Brown saw the bigger picture, Alexander & it appears Miliband do not.

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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,440
    edited April 2014
    £12 plus tip.

    Looking at the average Populus figures for April (one more to come as next Fridays poll would finish on 1 May ) and comparing them to the average March polls, the Labour lead has narrowed. The main material movements on the 2010 voting data is an increase in 2010L now voting UKIP (1.5% increase) and a reduction in 2010LD now voting L with a corresponding increase in 2010LD voting LD (2.5% movements).

    Perhaps the red liberal move to labour is not as solid as is the current perceived wisdom?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2014
    Now which part of this is good news?

    Healthy Retail Sales in this morning from the ONS. March up 4.2% on year and 0.1% on February 2014. So a slight acceleration of growth in contrast to most other recent monthly metrics which have shown an equally low easing of pace: quarter 1 2014 being up by 3.8%. This shows the economic recovery cruised through the final quarter of the year. GDP figures out on Monday.

    Here are the key Retail Sales findings:

    • In March 2014, the quantity bought in the retail industry increased by 4.2% compared with March 2013 and by 0.1% compared with February 2014. The quantity bought also increased in Q1 2014 compared with Q1 2013, by 3.8%. This continues a pattern of year-on-year growth since early 2013.

    • Non-food stores saw the highest year-on-year increase (9.6%) since April 2002. This may partly reflect the negative effect of the very cold weather a year earlier, which was the second coldest March on record, in contrast to the warm weather in March 2014. Food stores, however, saw the largest year-on-year decrease (2.3%) since April 2013 (2.9%).

    • In March 2014, the amount spent in the retail industry increased by 3.9% compared with March 2013 and by 0.3% compared with February 2014. Non-seasonally adjusted data show that the average weekly spend in the retail industry in March 2014 was £6.7 billion compared with £6.6 billion in March 2013 and £6.5 billion in February 2014.

    Average prices of goods sold in March 2014 showed deflation of 0.5%; fuel once again provided the greatest contribution, falling by 5.8%. These data are consistent with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) which was published on 15 April 2014.

    • The amount spent online increased by 7.1% in March 2014 compared with March 2013 and by 1.4% compared with February 2014.


    The big surprise is in the section I have given emphasis. Sales are up 4ish percent annually at a time when average prices have fallen 0.5%, which suggests a significantly higher than 4.0% growth in volume. This is even more surprising when food sales, which regularly account for 40% of total household retail spend, are contracting by nearly two and a half percent.

    The big question therefore is whether the clear evidence of deflation is really good news or not?
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Brown saw the bigger picture, Alexander & it appears Miliband do not.

    Yeah, you've not really made any case whatsoever for why bashing Tories is a bad idea in the context of the Scottish Independence debate. What's it going to do - turn Tories into 'yes' voters?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories are 5/2 to retain control of Croydon council with Ladbrokes.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Indeed, Miss Vance. Miliband seems to have less sense than Brown.

    A somewhat troubling thought.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    kjohnw said:

    judging by Populus the tory voters are back home from their Easter Holidays. Oh and next week we have Q1 GDP figures out and most people will be getting their April Pay packets in with the new £10K tax allowance. The good news just keeps on coming, wages up, inflation down, unemployment down, growth up, defecit down, crime down. After the Euros UKIPs star will wane and I expect by the Autumn we will see a growing tory lead barring major black swan events

    Also very small businesses will start to feel the effect of the £2k discount on Employer's NI.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    Farage agrees UKIP candidate is repellent:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/25/ukip-nigel-farage-andre-lampitt_n_5210967.html

    I suspect that Farage is among the UKIP voters who would quite like to drift back to the mainstream if he could get satisfaction on a few points. He gives a convincing impression of being genuinely uncomfortable with some of the company he keeps.

    Choosing a white Zimbabwean builder was always going to be a bit risky, I dare say.
    Its the equivalent of Labour choosing an Asian man with a big long beard and robes in their PPB (they never do do they? OTOH ethnic minorities are usually dressed up in Western clothes in political adverts... could be wrong, but maybe that's racism/prejudice) only to find his twitter account full of "Allah Akboukar" and "holy war" nonsense
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    What's the difference between Ed Miliband and Ryan Giggs? One's a fading left winger who did the dirty on his brother, the other is a footballer.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Mr. Fett, not round here. Tons of nettles, but almost as many dock leaves. We also have tons of bluebells, which are apparently endangered.

    Mr. CD13, amongst other things the Labour Party PEB, which managed to not mention Europe once, also managed never to show Ed Miliband or use his voice.

    As discussed last night it is really quite common for PEBs no feature no politicians at all...
    For the Labour Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections to not mention the EU is a rather big omission.

    Is there a director's cut version that includes their EU policy?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,925
    Neil said:

    Brown saw the bigger picture, Alexander & it appears Miliband do not.

    Yeah, you've not really made any case whatsoever for why bashing Tories is a bad idea in the context of the Scottish Independence debate. What's it going to do - turn Tories into 'yes' voters?
    Brown saw the Independence question as 'bigger' than 'Labour vs Tories'. If you frame it as 'Labour vs Tories' you are vulnerable to 'Tory rule from London' (something you spent over a decade and a half going on about) - and opinion polls in the run up to SIndyref - we've seen the first draw today......can a crossover be far behind?

    Most voters take the polls at face value - the guy with the bigger number wins - they don't know the real challenge the Tories face. By framing the hugely important independence question in terms of 'Labour vs Tories', the current Labour leadership run the risk of losing the Union over the (essentially trivial in the context of a 300 year old Union) forecast outcome of the 2015 GE.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2014
    On topic: Mike's strategy might be sound, but there's a better way to execute it.

    Bet equal amounts on (A) Con Most Votes (Evens chez Ladrokes), and (B) Lab Most Seats (around 1.78 on Betfair, i.e. 1.75 after commission, or 1.67 from Ladbrokes, Spreadex, or Paddy). If you discount the possibility of Con Most Seats, Lab Most Votes (which I think is pretty safe to discount), that works out at 7/1 with your money back if the Conservatives get most seats (which Betfair currently has as a 44% probability, and which would be a loser in Mike's bet).

    For example, bet £100 on each, using Betfair for the Most Seats part of the bet:

    Lab Most Votes and Lab Most Seats: Lose £100 on A, win £75 on B, net loss £25

    Con Most Votes, Lab Most Seats: Win £100 on A, win £75 on B, net win £175

    Con Most Votes, Con Most Seats: Win £100 on A, Lose £100 on B, net zero.

    The only downside is that you need to tie up more capital than Mike is having to do.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:


    What Brown cleverly did was extoll the virtues of the Union without getting into 'bash the Tories' - yesterday Alexander, and it appears today, Miliband, has fallen into that trap

    What's wrong with bashing the Tories?
    Bashing the Tories in Scotland is a bit like bashing Russians in the Ukraine. Neither are formally in power, but both have access to fighter jets.

    Even Malcolm won't want one of those overhead.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,056
    taffys said:

    Easy target for people who want to do UKIP parodies...

    Honestly what have you kippers started??

    Zimbabwe??

    Over on the express thread the best liked comments are calling for the return of Rhodesia....

    If I lived in Zimbabwe I'd rather have Ian Smith in charge than Mugabe's thugs...
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704



    I gave up, and my account is still in the Pall Mall branch where it was set up ca. 1971, and which I've not visited for decades. "Know your bank manager?" As if.

    Nick, I have a near identical situation - haven't visited my branch since 1988. Moving branch is just damn near impossible - all the more frustrating as my account is amongst those that RBS has earmarked as being sold off to God-knows-who for competition reasons. The only thing that has kept me in place so long is that moving to another bank is even more laden down with bureaucracy and stupidity.
    Just open a new account where you want it, have two accounts for a while.

    Move Dirict debits / standing orders when it suits you. Then there is no need to go through the ridiculous bank system of 'transfer of account' or 'close an account' on their terms, but you do it on your terms, and can either keep the old account or close it once you have shifted all the bit over to the new one.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,176
    Financier said:

    kjohnw said:

    judging by Populus the tory voters are back home from their Easter Holidays. Oh and next week we have Q1 GDP figures out and most people will be getting their April Pay packets in with the new £10K tax allowance. The good news just keeps on coming, wages up, inflation down, unemployment down, growth up, defecit down, crime down. After the Euros UKIPs star will wane and I expect by the Autumn we will see a growing tory lead barring major black swan events

    Also very small businesses will start to feel the effect of the £2k discount on Employer's NI.
    OAP up this month, too; by £3.50 per week. Haven't got my NHS pension yet, which should have the tax change effect. Comes first full week of the month.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Pulpstar said:

    AveryLP said:

    Did I see a dead squirrel this morning?

    Or was it just another one of OGH's postiches?

    Where is 'pouter - He can finally put those goalposts down... Or can he.

    Think he needs crossover ALP.
    Trust 'pouter to move the goalposts!

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    BobaFett said:

    Mr. Fett, not round here. Tons of nettles, but almost as many dock leaves. We also have tons of bluebells, which are apparently endangered.

    Mr. CD13, amongst other things the Labour Party PEB, which managed to not mention Europe once, also managed never to show Ed Miliband or use his voice.

    As discussed last night it is really quite common for PEBs no feature no politicians at all...
    For the Labour Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections to not mention the EU is a rather big omission.

    Is there a director's cut version that includes their EU policy?
    That was weird

    They didn't mention the EU or the EU elections at all did they?

    Think it means a referendum under Labour not out of the question.. theyre keeping their powder dry

    Was a GE 2015 advert a year early
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,219
    edited April 2014
    Neil said:

    Brown saw the bigger picture, Alexander & it appears Miliband do not.

    Yeah, you've not really made any case whatsoever for why bashing Tories is a bad idea in the context of the Scottish Independence debate. What's it going to do - turn Tories into 'yes' voters?
    Tory-bashing could be a very good idea if you are a Labour MSP [edit] and want to stay one, or want to become one, whatever happens with indy.

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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Mr. Fett, not round here. Tons of nettles, but almost as many dock leaves. We also have tons of bluebells, which are apparently endangered.

    Mr. CD13, amongst other things the Labour Party PEB, which managed to not mention Europe once, also managed never to show Ed Miliband or use his voice.

    As discussed last night it is really quite common for PEBs no feature no politicians at all...
    For the Labour Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections to not mention the EU is a rather big omission.

    Is there a director's cut version that includes their EU policy?
    That was weird

    They didn't mention the EU or the EU elections at all did they?

    Think it means a referendum under Labour not out of the question.. theyre keeping their powder dry

    Was a GE 2015 advert a year early
    Or they have Zero interest in getting involved in any Euro arguments, and a referendum is not even on the agenda.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,219

    Neil said:

    Brown saw the bigger picture, Alexander & it appears Miliband do not.

    Yeah, you've not really made any case whatsoever for why bashing Tories is a bad idea in the context of the Scottish Independence debate. What's it going to do - turn Tories into 'yes' voters?
    Brown saw the Independence question as 'bigger' than 'Labour vs Tories'. If you frame it as 'Labour vs Tories' you are vulnerable to 'Tory rule from London' (something you spent over a decade and a half going on about) - and opinion polls in the run up to SIndyref - we've seen the first draw today......can a crossover be far behind?

    Most voters take the polls at face value - the guy with the bigger number wins - they don't know the real challenge the Tories face. By framing the hugely important independence question in terms of 'Labour vs Tories', the current Labour leadership run the risk of losing the Union over the (essentially trivial in the context of a 300 year old Union) forecast outcome of the 2015 GE.

    "First draw today" - where, please?

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Neil said:

    Brown saw the bigger picture, Alexander & it appears Miliband do not.

    Yeah, you've not really made any case whatsoever for why bashing Tories is a bad idea in the context of the Scottish Independence debate. What's it going to do - turn Tories into 'yes' voters?
    I think it's the combo of bashing the Tories and GE polls narrowing (most ordinary voters won't appreciate the structural advantages Labour has).

    I recall a poll a while ago suggesting that if Tories were perceived as likely to form the UK government after 2015 it was worth +2% to Yes (from DK). In a tight race that may be critical.

    Surely, therefore, it's better for SLAB to ignore the tories rather than to highlight them?
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Mr. Fett, not round here. Tons of nettles, but almost as many dock leaves. We also have tons of bluebells, which are apparently endangered.

    Mr. CD13, amongst other things the Labour Party PEB, which managed to not mention Europe once, also managed never to show Ed Miliband or use his voice.

    As discussed last night it is really quite common for PEBs no feature no politicians at all...
    For the Labour Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections to not mention the EU is a rather big omission.

    Is there a director's cut version that includes their EU policy?
    That was weird

    They didn't mention the EU or the EU elections at all did they?

    Think it means a referendum under Labour not out of the question.. theyre keeping their powder dry

    Was a GE 2015 advert a year early
    Or they have Zero interest in getting involved in any Euro arguments, and a referendum is not even on the agenda.
    Its not in the competence of MEPs to offer a referendum.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,925
    Carnyx said:

    Neil said:

    Brown saw the bigger picture, Alexander & it appears Miliband do not.

    Yeah, you've not really made any case whatsoever for why bashing Tories is a bad idea in the context of the Scottish Independence debate. What's it going to do - turn Tories into 'yes' voters?
    Brown saw the Independence question as 'bigger' than 'Labour vs Tories'. If you frame it as 'Labour vs Tories' you are vulnerable to 'Tory rule from London' (something you spent over a decade and a half going on about) - and opinion polls in the run up to SIndyref - we've seen the first draw today......can a crossover be far behind?

    Most voters take the polls at face value - the guy with the bigger number wins - they don't know the real challenge the Tories face. By framing the hugely important independence question in terms of 'Labour vs Tories', the current Labour leadership run the risk of losing the Union over the (essentially trivial in the context of a 300 year old Union) forecast outcome of the 2015 GE.

    "First draw today" - where, please?

    Be still your beating heart!

    I was referring to the Populus Poll showing a draw between Lab & Con for the 2015 GE!

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Mr. Fett, not round here. Tons of nettles, but almost as many dock leaves. We also have tons of bluebells, which are apparently endangered.

    Mr. CD13, amongst other things the Labour Party PEB, which managed to not mention Europe once, also managed never to show Ed Miliband or use his voice.

    As discussed last night it is really quite common for PEBs no feature no politicians at all...
    For the Labour Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections to not mention the EU is a rather big omission.

    Is there a director's cut version that includes their EU policy?
    That was weird

    They didn't mention the EU or the EU elections at all did they?

    Think it means a referendum under Labour not out of the question.. theyre keeping their powder dry

    Was a GE 2015 advert a year early
    Or they have Zero interest in getting involved in any Euro arguments, and a referendum is not even on the agenda.
    We'll see
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    What's the difference between Ed Miliband and Ryan Giggs? One's a fading left winger who did the dirty on his brother, the other is a footballer.

    One of them manages a team full of aging and faded stars who are going to let their great rivals run away with the prize*. The other is Ryan Giggs?

    * (of course, Liverpool are going to win the league)
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,941
    There is a Patriotic Socialist Party candidate in the Kirkburton Ward of Kirklees. I had not heard of them before. Apparently they formally launched on Jan 1st 2014. Anybody know who or what they are?
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    Charles said:

    What's the difference between Ed Miliband and Ryan Giggs? One's a fading left winger who did the dirty on his brother, the other is a footballer.

    One of them manages a team full of aging and faded stars who are going to let their great rivals run away with the prize*. The other is Ryan Giggs?

    * (of course, Liverpool are going to win the league)
    Liverpool are not going to win the league.

    I've got tickets to the Cathedral of football that is Anfield for Sunday, I'm not sure I'll be able to cope
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Indeed, Labour are stupid to raise the Conservatives in the independence debate. It won't shift blue votes, but that's not where the battle will be decided: it's floating and red voters. Banging on about the blues will only help Yes.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Mr. Fett, not round here. Tons of nettles, but almost as many dock leaves. We also have tons of bluebells, which are apparently endangered.

    Mr. CD13, amongst other things the Labour Party PEB, which managed to not mention Europe once, also managed never to show Ed Miliband or use his voice.

    As discussed last night it is really quite common for PEBs no feature no politicians at all...
    For the Labour Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections to not mention the EU is a rather big omission.

    Is there a director's cut version that includes their EU policy?
    That was weird

    They didn't mention the EU or the EU elections at all did they?

    Think it means a referendum under Labour not out of the question.. theyre keeping their powder dry

    Was a GE 2015 advert a year early
    The LAB high command can read the polls. 95% don't give a monkeys about Europe and why, anyway would they want to close down an issue that's been so poisonous to the Tories for 3 decades.







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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Charles said:

    What's the difference between Ed Miliband and Ryan Giggs? One's a fading left winger who did the dirty on his brother, the other is a footballer.

    One of them manages a team full of aging and faded stars who are going to let their great rivals run away with the prize*. The other is Ryan Giggs?

    * (of course, Liverpool are going to win the league)
    Liverpool are not going to win the league.

    I've got tickets to the Cathedral of football that is Anfield for Sunday, I'm not sure I'll be able to cope
    vs Chelesa Reserves?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27121567
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Charles said:


    Surely, therefore, it's better for SLAB to ignore the tories rather than to highlight them?

    It's certainly a near universal view amongst Tories here that being beastly to the Tories is a bad tactic.
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    slade said:

    There is a Patriotic Socialist Party candidate in the Kirkburton Ward of Kirklees. I had not heard of them before. Apparently they formally launched on Jan 1st 2014. Anybody know who or what they are?

    Basically a bunch of commies that that haven't been happy since the Berlin Wall fell

    10 Point Plan

    Patriotic socialism is an ideology that fuses the values and beliefs of both the left and the right in order to create a cohesive set of policy objectives that are based solely on the interests and the well-being of the people.

    The Party’s 10 Point Plan, which highlights the most important values and objectives of the Party and the ideology that it represents:

    1. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates national and cultural identity in order to establish a national community of which anyone can belong, irrespective of someone’s ethnicity, religion, sexuality, age, disability, gender or origin.

    2. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates social equality, equality of opportunity and basic human rights in order to elevate the standards of living for the poorest and most vulnerable in society and work towards the betterment of mankind.

    3. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates environmentalism, bio-diversity and animal welfare in order to protect the natural world and ensure our survival as a species.

    4. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates the development of manufacturing, agricultural, technological and green industries in order to reduce reliance on foreign goods, create new employment opportunities, stimulate genuine economic growth and attain national self-sufficiency.

    5. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates a system of immigration based on economic sustainability in order to influence population growth and maintain and enhance the standards of living for everyone that resides within the nation.



    http://www.patriotic-socialist.org.uk/policy

    http://www.patriotic-socialist.org.uk/

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    6. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates the nationalisation of key industries and institutions and the creation of a reformed and well-funded public sector in order to ensure that the interests and the well-being of the people are not placed solely in the hands of profiteers and that the standards of health, education, policing and transport, among others, are maintained and enhanced.

    7. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates reforming the crime and justice system in both improving the process of rehabilitation and ensuring tougher sentences are given to both repeat offenders and those guilty of the most serious offences in order to restore long-term peace, law and order.

    8. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates a revitalised armed forces in order to guarantee the safety and security of the people with both former and serving members of the armed forces being treated with a level of respect and dignity that all those who risk their lives in the service of their country deserve.

    9. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates the formation of a strong central government and the introduction of direct democracy in order to safeguard the interests of people and to allow the people to express their views on specific issues more directly.

    10. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates international co-operation with the like-minded governments of other nations in order to establish worldwide peace, security and prosperity
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,056
    edited April 2014

    On topic: Mike's strategy might be sound, but there's a better way to execute it.

    Bet equal amounts on (A) Con Most Votes (Evens chez Ladrokes), and (B) Lab Most Seats (around 1.78 on Betfair, i.e. 1.75 after commission, or 1.67 from Ladbrokes, Spreadex, or Paddy). If you discount the possibility of Con Most Seats, Lab Most Votes (which I think is pretty safe to discount), that works out at 7/1 with your money back if the Conservatives get most seats (which Betfair currently has as a 44% probability, and which would be a loser in Mike's bet).

    For example, bet £100 on each, using Betfair for the Most Seats part of the bet:

    Lab Most Votes and Lab Most Seats: Lose £100 on A, win £75 on B, net loss £25

    Con Most Votes, Lab Most Seats: Win £100 on A, win £75 on B, net win £175

    Con Most Votes, Con Most Seats: Win £100 on A, Lose £100 on B, net zero.

    The only downside is that you need to tie up more capital than Mike is having to do.

    I've already got positions (Except most votes) with all the markets including Mike's but that is an excellent spot - done exactly as advised.

    £200 more capital tied up for GE2015 !
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Incidentally, it seems UKIP have managed to move from being a single issue party to a broader church (even if it's a protest one, at least partly, right now). Could be a serious change in politics and a good step for the purples.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I think we're still awaiting how much any lady PBer spend to rearrange their strands atop ?

    And although Mrs JackW has opined here a few times I've just been advised that I don't want to know and if I did I'd have to sign the Official Secrets Act whilst taking anti-anxiety medication !!
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    isam said:

    Charles said:

    What's the difference between Ed Miliband and Ryan Giggs? One's a fading left winger who did the dirty on his brother, the other is a footballer.

    One of them manages a team full of aging and faded stars who are going to let their great rivals run away with the prize*. The other is Ryan Giggs?

    * (of course, Liverpool are going to win the league)
    Liverpool are not going to win the league.

    I've got tickets to the Cathedral of football that is Anfield for Sunday, I'm not sure I'll be able to cope
    vs Chelesa Reserves?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27121567
    A reserve side that cost more than Liverpool's first team.
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    Actually they're more National Socialists aren't they?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,925
    Charles said:

    Neil said:

    Brown saw the bigger picture, Alexander & it appears Miliband do not.

    Yeah, you've not really made any case whatsoever for why bashing Tories is a bad idea in the context of the Scottish Independence debate. What's it going to do - turn Tories into 'yes' voters?
    I recall a poll a while ago suggesting that if Tories were perceived as likely to form the UK government after 2015 it was worth +2% to Yes (from DK). In a tight race that may be critical.
    Earlier this week:

    If the Tories look like winning the 2015 general election the Yes campaign could be on the cusp of victory at 49% excluding undecided voters, according to further ICM results published today by sister paper The Scotsman.

    The prospect of a Tory government would see a two per cent swing from undecided to boost Yes to 41% while the No vote remains unchanged.

    The prospect of a Labour government would see support for independence fall to 36%, support for the union surge to 44% and leave 20% undecided.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/poll-says-scots-more-likely-to-vote-yes-if-they-think-the-torys-will-win-th.1398070214

    Labour voters......
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2014
    ''If I lived in Zimbabwe I'd rather have Ian Smith in charge than Mugabe's thugs... ''

    Et Tu Pulpstar?

    Blimey.

    I am starting wonder if Lampitt's portrayal of Milli as an unbritish Pole will do the labour leader more damage than a thousand Dan Hodges columns.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,331
    Charles said:

    What's the difference between Ed Miliband and Ryan Giggs? One's a fading left winger who did the dirty on his brother, the other is a footballer.

    One of them manages a team full of aging and faded stars who are going to let their great rivals run away with the prize*. The other is Ryan Giggs?

    * (of course, Liverpool are going to win the league)
    One has won the respect of his team's fans. The other is leader of the Labour party?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Neil said:

    Charles said:


    Surely, therefore, it's better for SLAB to ignore the tories rather than to highlight them?

    It's certainly a near universal view amongst Tories here that being beastly to the Tories is a bad tactic.
    No - but when the Yes campaign is trying to talk up the possibility of Tory rule from London, and the polls show that it is sensible to do so, you wonder why SLAB wants to copy them.

    May be Douglas Alexander is an unheralded political genius.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    6. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates the nationalisation of key industries and institutions and the creation of a reformed and well-funded public sector in order to ensure that the interests and the well-being of the people are not placed solely in the hands of profiteers and that the standards of health, education, policing and transport, among others, are maintained and enhanced.

    7. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates reforming the crime and justice system in both improving the process of rehabilitation and ensuring tougher sentences are given to both repeat offenders and those guilty of the most serious offences in order to restore long-term peace, law and order.

    8. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates a revitalised armed forces in order to guarantee the safety and security of the people with both former and serving members of the armed forces being treated with a level of respect and dignity that all those who risk their lives in the service of their country deserve.

    9. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates the formation of a strong central government and the introduction of direct democracy in order to safeguard the interests of people and to allow the people to express their views on specific issues more directly.

    10. The Patriotic Socialist Party advocates international co-operation with the like-minded governments of other nations in order to establish worldwide peace, security and prosperity

    Sounds almost facistic (in the Italian sense)
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,925
    Neil said:

    Charles said:


    Surely, therefore, it's better for SLAB to ignore the tories rather than to highlight them?

    It's certainly a near universal view amongst Tories here that being beastly to the Tories is a bad tactic.
    They can be as nasty as they like after the SIndy ref is out of the way.....sadly it seems they cannot see that bigger picture, a failing they share with others......

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Anybody wanting to see a couple of comfortably off lefties get a savaging need only go to the threads below the handwringing articles on UKIP by Suzanne Moore and Hugh Muir on the Guardian site

    It really is most enjoyable reading....
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Charles said:


    Surely, therefore, it's better for SLAB to ignore the tories rather than to highlight them?

    It's certainly a near universal view amongst Tories here that being beastly to the Tories is a bad tactic.
    They can be as nasty as they like after the SIndy ref is out of the way.....sadly it seems they cannot see that bigger picture, a failing they share with others......

    Again I'm not sure that having a love-in with Tories is quite the winning tactic for this referendum that you think it is. But we're obviously not going to agree on this so let's move on.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    What's the difference between Ed Miliband and Ryan Giggs? One's a fading left winger who did the dirty on his brother, the other is a footballer.

    Why does nobody ever talk about David Miliband doing the dirty on his brother. DM had his chances in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and didn't have the bottle to go through with it. He wanted the leadership on a plate. His failure showed why he would have been a poor leader like Brown who also wanted the job on a plate.


    Well tough shite.


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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One topped a poll that was much criticised by outside commentators for the dubious means by which his supporters secured the necessary votes?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Mr. Fett, not round here. Tons of nettles, but almost as many dock leaves. We also have tons of bluebells, which are apparently endangered.

    Mr. CD13, amongst other things the Labour Party PEB, which managed to not mention Europe once, also managed never to show Ed Miliband or use his voice.

    As discussed last night it is really quite common for PEBs no feature no politicians at all...
    For the Labour Party PEB for the EU Parliament elections to not mention the EU is a rather big omission.

    Is there a director's cut version that includes their EU policy?
    That was weird

    They didn't mention the EU or the EU elections at all did they?

    Think it means a referendum under Labour not out of the question.. theyre keeping their powder dry

    Was a GE 2015 advert a year early
    The LAB high command can read the polls. 95% don't give a monkeys about Europe and why, anyway would they want to close down an issue that's been so poisonous to the Tories for 3 decades.

    Well a party that bangs on about Europe constantly are polling 14-20%

    Maybe they know being pro EU is unpopular, and think by not mentioning it they might get enough votes to squeak a win next month

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @AveryLP

    "Now which part of this is good news?

    Healthy Retail Sales in this morning from the ONS. March up 4.2% on year"

    I am not sure that is good news. Whenever I hear of retail sales increases all I see is a worsening of of balance of trade and wealth leaving these shores. I know I am in a minority these days but so much of what we buy in the shops is imported that I don't believe increasing retail sales is actually beneficial in the medium/long term.

    Good news would be that households are saving more and those savings could be put to productive use by UK industry investing to make products that they can sell.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. Neil, nobody's arguing for a love-in, they're suggesting Scottish Labour should not mention the Conservatives at all.

    Doing so increases the chances of a Yes, breaking up the union and costing Labour 40 odd seats. It's just stupid.

    Mr. Smithson, because he didn't. D. Miliband didn't talk E. Miliband out of resigning when Purnell did and then stand against him.

    Also, E. Miliband is a bloody abysmal leader. His adoration of Hollande's policies and price-freezing idiocy rather stand out, and as Environment Secretary he appears to have been as zealous a green as Davey but without Davey's intelligence and foresight.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,925
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    Charles said:


    Surely, therefore, it's better for SLAB to ignore the tories rather than to highlight them?

    It's certainly a near universal view amongst Tories here that being beastly to the Tories is a bad tactic.
    They can be as nasty as they like after the SIndy ref is out of the way.....sadly it seems they cannot see that bigger picture, a failing they share with others......

    Again I'm not sure that having a love-in with Tories is quite the winning tactic for this referendum that you think it is. But we're obviously not going to agree on this so let's move on.
    No one is suggesting 'a love in' - just focussing, as Brown did - on the bigger picture - the language of division and difference belongs to the Nats - aping it helps them.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    What's the difference between Ed Miliband and Ryan Giggs? One's a fading left winger who did the dirty on his brother, the other is a footballer.

    Why does nobody ever talk about David Miliband doing the dirty on his brother. DM had his chances in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and didn't have the bottle to go through with it. He wanted the leadership on a plate. His failure showed why he would have been a poor leader like Brown who also wanted the job on a plate.


    Well tough shite.


    Nobody would know you won a huge pile of cash on Ed defeating his brother ....

    Titters ....

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. Antifrank, there's nothing dubious about having Ed Miliband's face plastered all over the envelopes.

    Likewise, he's been brave and tough to reduce reliance on the unions, by having Labour's finances dominated by a bank 75% owned by, um, unions...
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    What's the difference between Ed Miliband and Ryan Giggs? One's a fading left winger who did the dirty on his brother, the other is a footballer.

    Why does nobody ever talk about David Miliband doing the dirty on his brother. DM had his chances in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and didn't have the bottle to go through with it. He wanted the leadership on a plate. His failure showed why he would have been a poor leader like Brown who also wanted the job on a plate.


    Well tough shite.


    Bang on again Mike.

    It has become a very weird Tory obsession, doing the violin act for David. Fair play to Ed who beat his big brother fair and square under the rules.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Why does nobody ever talk about David Miliband doing the dirty on his brother.

    Because he is no longer an MP, so no one gives a "shite" what he did or didn't do.
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    What's the difference between Ed Miliband and Ryan Giggs? One's a fading left winger who did the dirty on his brother, the other is a footballer.

    Why does nobody ever talk about David Miliband doing the dirty on his brother. DM had his chances in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and didn't have the bottle to go through with it. He wanted the leadership on a plate. His failure showed why he would have been a poor leader like Brown who also wanted the job on a plate.


    Well tough shite.


    I've never been impressed by either brother.

    Bananaman was forever damaged, I was a James Purnell man.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,922
    "still tickles the Labour instinct to kick the Tories where it hurts most."

    This isn't a Labour instnict at all. There are very many people who hate the Tories but are not Labourites (nor LD supporters either). They often do vote Labour but when they see a chance to switch to keep the Tories out they will (provided it is not for another Right party such as UKIP). I bet that in this byelection almost all those who are Labourites still voted Labour but it was the Tory haters who made the jump from Lab or no-vote to LD.

    Of these Tory haters nationally, many will be the "LD > Labour Switchers" PB always talks about. They will vote tactically and will vote LD in a LD/Con two way seat" . They are also make up a considerable chunk of the "stay at homers" in the safe Labour seats who would gladly put a cross against Labour in a marginal seat but aren't bothered enough to contribute another 0.00003% to the national vote statistic when in a safe seat.

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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Jack

    There aren't any lady PBers that I know of. There may be the odd lurker but sadly this is a very male dominated site. Hence all the talk of £4 haircuts.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Today's PB Tory wisdom: Tory bashing is unwise according to Tories.

    I'm glad I log on every morning for the upfront incisive analysis.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,331
    An egg-stremely gooey story from Wales:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-east-wales-27153682

    I'm not quite sure what to think ...
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @M.Dancer

    Can't you bring yourself to refer to Ed by his given name?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,056
    eristdoof said:

    "still tickles the Labour instinct to kick the Tories where it hurts most."

    This isn't a Labour instnict at all. There are very many people who hate the Tories but are not Labourites (nor LD supporters either). They often do vote Labour but when they see a chance to switch to keep the Tories out they will (provided it is not for another Right party such as UKIP). I bet that in this byelection almost all those who are Labourites still voted Labour but it was the Tory haters who made the jump from Lab or no-vote to LD.

    Of these Tory haters nationally, many will be the "LD > Labour Switchers" PB always talks about. They will vote tactically and will vote LD in a LD/Con two way seat" . They are also make up a considerable chunk of the "stay at homers" in the safe Labour seats who would gladly put a cross against Labour in a marginal seat but aren't bothered enough to contribute another 0.00003% to the national vote statistic when in a safe seat.

    And long may they stay at home, now I'm all over the Lab Seats Con Votes & the Nabavi variant 6 ways till sunday.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,219

    Carnyx said:

    Neil said:

    Brown saw the bigger picture, Alexander & it appears Miliband do not.

    Yeah, you've not really made any case whatsoever for why bashing Tories is a bad idea in the context of the Scottish Independence debate. What's it going to do - turn Tories into 'yes' voters?
    Brown saw the Independence question as 'bigger' than 'Labour vs Tories'. If you frame it as 'Labour vs Tories' you are vulnerable to 'Tory rule from London' (something you spent over a decade and a half going on about) - and opinion polls in the run up to SIndyref - we've seen the first draw today......can a crossover be far behind?

    Most voters take the polls at face value - the guy with the bigger number wins - they don't know the real challenge the Tories face. By framing the hugely important independence question in terms of 'Labour vs Tories', the current Labour leadership run the risk of losing the Union over the (essentially trivial in the context of a 300 year old Union) forecast outcome of the 2015 GE.

    "First draw today" - where, please?

    Be still your beating heart!

    I was referring to the Populus Poll showing a draw between Lab & Con for the 2015 GE!

    Mphm, given recent polling on indyref voter's attitudes to the prospect of a Tory government that is promising something very close to crossover in the indyref too.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,331
    eristdoof said:

    "still tickles the Labour instinct to kick the Tories where it hurts most."

    This isn't a Labour instnict at all. There are very many people who hate the Tories but are not Labourites (nor LD supporters either). They often do vote Labour but when they see a chance to switch to keep the Tories out they will (provided it is not for another Right party such as UKIP). I bet that in this byelection almost all those who are Labourites still voted Labour but it was the Tory haters who made the jump from Lab or no-vote to LD.

    Of these Tory haters nationally, many will be the "LD > Labour Switchers" PB always talks about. They will vote tactically and will vote LD in a LD/Con two way seat" . They are also make up a considerable chunk of the "stay at homers" in the safe Labour seats who would gladly put a cross against Labour in a marginal seat but aren't bothered enough to contribute another 0.00003% to the national vote statistic when in a safe seat.

    Hate is such a destructive emotion. Perhaps people who 'hate' their political opponents should look at their own lives first?

    I'm on record on here as not liking Miliband. I don't think he's any good, and that he's massively hypocritical. But do I hate him? Nah. I'd have a drink with him if the opportunity came around.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The Standard has a good story on UKIP postergate

    The British builder is an Irish immigrant actor in real life....
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BobaFett said:

    @Jack

    There aren't any lady PBers that I know of. There may be the odd lurker but sadly this is a very male dominated site. Hence all the talk of £4 haircuts.

    There was a lady 'Poster of the Year'.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2014
    More good news?

    The other main ONS release this morning is its Index of Private Housing Rental Prices.

    Now with all the talk of a house price boom there are those, even on PB, who believe that rental prices are currently increasing at unsustainable rates.

    However counter-intuitive it may seem, the growth rate in rental prices tends to fall below inflation when the capital value of housing increases above it. This is because yields on investments in property come from a combination of capital appreciation and rental income. So if one goes up the other compensates and the yield remains stable (or at least so the theory goes).

    What the ONS Index tells us is that private property housing rents are increasing and have increased for some time at below the headline rate of inflation although the gap is closing as inflation has fallen.

    Still there is a wide regional disparity and there will be many areas which counter the average trends.

    Here are the key findings:

    • Private rental prices paid by tenants in Great Britain rose by 1.0% in the 12 months to March 2014, unchanged from a 1.0% increase in the 12 months to February 2014.

    • Private rental prices grew by 1.0% in England, 1.3% in Scotland and 0.6% in Wales in the 12 months to March 2014.

    • Rental prices increased in all the English regions over the year to March 2014, with rental prices increasing the most in London (1.4%).


    So if fuel prices are falling by 5%, average consumer prices by 0.5%, with housing rent growing below the rate of inflation and mortgage interest rates stable (after a sustained fall) and wages are increasing above the rate of inflation, just where is this cost of living crisis, Mr Miliband?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @TheWatcher

    I'm not aware of any lady posters who post regularly. Hence all the talk of getting your kids to cut your hair or doing it with razor blades. Without straying into sexism, this is not normal womanly behaviour.
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