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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stand by for Ed’s next unlikely election victory. CON win m

SystemSystem Posts: 11,730
edited April 2014 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stand by for Ed’s next unlikely election victory. CON win most votes: LAB win most seats even possibly a majority

We all remember that moment on September 25th 2010 when Ed Miliband just squeezed past his brother, David, in the election for LAB leader. It was a huge shock for almost everybody including the Westminster village which had decided a long time earlier that the elder Miliband would be Brown’s successor.

Read the full story here


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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's certainly possible, and I agree with our host that this is a good bet at 5/1. This chimes very well with my latest post, where I look in detail at the impact on the Conservative-held marginals of defecting Lib Dems:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-3.html?m=1

    The battleground for the Conservatives is challenging.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKPR swing calculator:

    Con 36%, Lab 34%, LD 15%

    Lab 305, Con 286, LD 31

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    For this poll 2010 LDs split in favour of Labour 38/32> Previous two polls this week split has been in favour of LDs.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    Good bet, tho if today's YouGov is sustained - Lab 38, Con 32, LibD, 8 UKIP 14, Lab will get more of both:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2j5ocanyxi/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-240414.pdf

    Green on 4 may simply be MOE - or 2010 Lib Dems are finding another route for their protest....
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mike S

    I'm not too sure we can read too much into one very good LibDem local by-election gain.

    It certainly might be the usual "A Party Cannot Win Here" strategy. Alternatively a very highly regarded candidate, large scale campaigning effort or indeed some combination of all three.

    What we certainly can say is that where the LibDems are strong and put in an effort that they are clearly outperforming the national polls. The next question will be answered in a few weeks - Will this trend continue ?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,261
    A ship for our Scottish friends to bid for?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27129690
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    HurstLlama said:

    There are two things in life I can't bear. David Cameron and unpolished shoes.

    When I was working I never rejected a candidate for his or her like/dislike of a politician but I rejected plenty because they couldn't be bothered to polish their shoes. Takes less than five minutes but makes all the difference to appearance so why not do it? Ignorance or attitude, either one made them unacceptable.

    As I am now fully retired I offer this tip freely. When a Brit comes into the room to discuss business look at their shoes. Anyone whose shoes are dirty and unpolished you can safely ignore as you will never make money with them. The corollary of course is if you go to make a pitch to the likes of Mr. Charles make sure your footwear is gleaming.

    That is an absolutely ludicrous and unacceptable attitude (on your part, not the employee's). You casually and blithely assume that if someone has not polished their shoes it is because they "can't be bothered", when the reality is that it is not important. Whether someone's shoes are polished or not does not in the slightest bit "make all the difference to appearance" unless the whole of someone's appearance and character in being judged by a hysterical moron on the basis of one arbitrary and minor characteristic to the exclusion of anything else which is more relevant.

    I can't say that it has ever even occurred to me to notice whether someone's shoes are polished or not, let alone judge someone according to it.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    JackW said:


    I'm not too sure we can read too much into one very good LibDem local by-election gain.

    Especially since, if I understand the figures correctly, the "huge tactical switch from Lab" was worth all of 19 votes, neither here nor there really.....

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    JosiasJessop said:

    A ship for our Scottish friends to bid for?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27129690

    Precisely where the ship will be built is an open question.

    Given the scale of the investment, a home shipyard would obviously be preferred. But European Union rules will require that bids be invited also from beyond the UK.

    One for our Nat and UKIP friends to get stuck into.....
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    AJKAJK Posts: 20
    I wonder how many general elections it will take before the penny drops? 4 parties into FPTP doesn't go, does it? When the Tories realise this, they will have evolved. Until then, they will have to dream of the 1980s. Voters have learned to play the system: look at the opinion polls for Europe and Westminster. So different.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    CarlottaVance said:

    JackW said:


    I'm not too sure we can read too much into one very good LibDem local by-election gain.

    Especially since, if I understand the figures correctly, the "huge tactical switch from Lab" was worth all of 19 votes, neither here nor there really.....

    According to HH on the previous thread the 2011 result for the two seats was :

    Conservatives 593, 554 (Elected)
    Labour 379
    Liberal Democrats 305, 165

    Last night .. One Vacancy

    Liberal Democrats 523 .. 50.9% +27.0
    Conservative 280 .. 27.2% -19.2
    UKIP 162 .. 15.8% +15.8
    Labour 63 .. 6.1% -23.6



  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    An election victory for the Tories under FPTP is like the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,261
    Off-topic:

    The oldest organisms on earth:
    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/04/meet-the-woman-who-photographs-the-oldest-living-things-in-the-world/

    The top picture's a 2000-year old parsley. I'm not sure I'd want any on my potatoes ...
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2014
    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,590
    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    Milliband/Lab: dangerous
    Cameron/Tories: evil

    choose your poison.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    Since turnout in local/Euro elections is usually about 35% and turnout at the last GE was 65%, the answer is about 30% of the electorate. That's about 14 million people.
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    What happened to those LD switchers that are definitely going to stick with Labour?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's wonderful isn't it: because bankers screwed up, ordinary people are going to have to reveal how much they spend getting their hair cut in order to get a mortgage.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Thanks to Mike for another Red Liberals thread.
    Perfect Friday morning fare!
    Good morning everyone.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,022
    Millsy said:

    What happened to those LD switchers that are definitely going to stick with Labour?

    In simple terms, as far as I understand it, the argument is that there is a big block of anti-Tory voters, who will decide whether to vote Lab or LD according to the local constituency position. Think of it as a return to 1997, if you like.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    AndyJS said:

    It's wonderful isn't it: because bankers screwed up, ordinary people are going to have to reveal how much they spend getting their hair cut in order to get a mortgage.

    That's my remortgage plans in trouble then. My wife's hairdressing bill brings a gasp to the back of the throat.

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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,451
    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    And the same is true of the Tories. When it comes to fear factor I believe more people are afraid of the Tories than of Labour.

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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    ThomasNashe said:

    Millsy said:

    What happened to those LD switchers that are definitely going to stick with Labour?

    In simple terms, as far as I understand it, the argument is that there is a big block of anti-Tory voters, who will decide whether to vote Lab or LD according to the local constituency position. Think of it as a return to 1997, if you like.
    That's it. Even the fabled Red Liberals seem willing to hold their noses and vote Yellow when it means stopping the Tory.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    RochdalePioneers said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    And the same is true of the Tories. When it comes to fear factor I believe more people are afraid of the Tories than of Labour.

    There have been a few toxicity polls which would appear to back you up.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,022
    AJK said:

    I wonder how many general elections it will take before the penny drops? 4 parties into FPTP doesn't go, does it? When the Tories realise this, they will have evolved. Until then, they will have to dream of the 1980s. Voters have learned to play the system: look at the opinion polls for Europe and Westminster. So different.

    This may well be the one, if Mike is correct. PR is the tories best chance in the long term - it would enable a fiscally conservative, socially liberal rump to emerge who could plausibly lead governments of the centre.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    Because you live in a safe CON seat all your vote will do is add to the overall national aggregate and demonstrate even more how the electoral system works best for LAB.

    I believe we are heading for a perverse outcome with UKIP having the most to complain about.

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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut? And (as most but not all of us are male) what about the wives/girlfriends of PBers?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I usually pay £7 for a haircut.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,244
    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    What Miliband will do is barely any different to what Cameron or Clegg would do. Your tin foil hat paranoia is hilarious.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeSmithson said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    Because you live in a safe CON seat all your vote will do is add to the overall national aggregate and demonstrate even more how the electoral system works best for LAB.

    I believe we are heading for a perverse outcome with UKIP having the most to complain about.

    Perverse meaning Lab more seats than Con with Con more votes than Lab, and LD more seats than UKIP with UKIP more votes than LD.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,022
    BobaFett said:

    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut? And (as most but not all of us are male) what about the wives/girlfriends of PBers?

    Me - I pay £10 (standard price at an Ealing barber's). My wife, however, goes to Toni and Guy and pays around £100. To be fair she only goes about once every six months, whereas I have a haircut roughly every six weeks.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Radio Four - "people will have to give information about their haircuts, gambling habits"...

    Nice to know we're topical on PB.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    AndyJS said:

    I usually pay £7 for a haircut.

    Same here.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    edited April 2014
    AndyJS said:

    It's wonderful isn't it: because bankers screwed up, ordinary people are going to have to reveal how much they spend getting their hair cut in order to get a mortgage.

    This doesn't sound that different from when I got my first mortgage 30 years ago - there were checks on your salary, and also a chat about expenses (and the mortgage was capped at 2.5 times salary) - sounds like a return to good practice to me.....
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PR means permanent coalition, something that neither Labour or Tories want. I am not sure that even the LDs want another go at it. NOC does look a likely outcome in 2015.

    UKIP is not a stable party and has a very interesting history of splits and coups. It is a combination of protectionists and free traders, social conservatives and libertarians, Empire nostalgics and prophets. It would not be a stable coalition partner because it agrees on little apart from leaving the EU.

    Conservatives take the long view and would not want PR, but rather to reabsorb the sensible wings of both UKIP and LDs, following an EU referendum. A referendum that the BOOers would probably lose, and accept the result. The Scottish Indyref shows the benefit (as well as tediousness) of a long campaign.
    ThomasNashe said:

    AJK said:

    I wonder how many general elections it will take before the penny drops? 4 parties into FPTP doesn't go, does it? When the Tories realise this, they will have evolved. Until then, they will have to dream of the 1980s. Voters have learned to play the system: look at the opinion polls for Europe and Westminster. So different.

    This may well be the one, if Mike is correct. PR is the tories best chance in the long term - it would enable a fiscally conservative, socially liberal rump to emerge who could plausibly lead governments of the centre.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MikeSmithson said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    Because you live in a safe CON seat all your vote will do is add to the overall national aggregate and demonstrate even more how the electoral system works best for LAB.

    I believe we are heading for a perverse outcome with UKIP having the most to complain about.

    So if you live in a safe seat and strongly believe in keeping FPTP then you should not vote to keep the inbuilt Labour bias less visible?

    Extreme tactical voting :)

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,261
    AndyJS said:

    I usually pay £7 for a haircut.

    You spendthrift. Spend £50 on a good set of clippers and shave your had to 11 mm (nearly grade 4). In summer, if it's hot, 9mm.

    They last for years. At one trim a month, you soon get your money back ...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    AndyJS said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    Because you live in a safe CON seat all your vote will do is add to the overall national aggregate and demonstrate even more how the electoral system works best for LAB.

    I believe we are heading for a perverse outcome with UKIP having the most to complain about.

    Perverse meaning Lab more seats than Con with Con more votes than Lab, and LD more seats than UKIP with UKIP more votes than LD.
    All of which seem highly likely, especially the latter pair. Add that to a No in Indyref and won't there be a lot of little rays of sunshine!

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    This is probably true for most places: there are two towns near where I live, one upmarket and one downmarket. Haircuts for men are £7 in the latter and about £15 in the former.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,038
    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Mr. Llama, quite. Disestablishment for the sake of it is just unnecessary. It wouldn't gain the country anything. No surprise it comes from a man who wants to axe the Lords (where several bishops sit) and would probably be happy to axe the monarchy and kneel before a Brussels Lord High Bureaucrat.

    Haircuts: £4. However, I'll soon probably have to have it shaved off entirely, and then incur a one-off expense on some clippers.

    Speaking of money, Amazon still doesn't have Dragon Age: Inquisition up. Bloody slackers.

    On-topic: the election could indeed be a weird one. UKIP could hold together or splinter. My guess is many blues will return to the Conservatives and the reds may stick with UKIP because Miliband's uninspiring (I realise Cameron is as well, but he's mediocre as opposed to actively awful).

    The Lib Dems and their diminished support will also be interesting to watch.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BobaFett said:

    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut?

    That's a very brave question to ask on Mike Smithson's site !!

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    £9 for me, but a gentleman should never inquire about the cost of a lady friends hair and beauty treatment. It is not good for either the relationship or the coronary arteries.

    Consider it the same as living opposite a thatched cottage, you get the benefit of the view without the cost of maintenance.
    ThomasNashe said:

    BobaFett said:

    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut? And (as most but not all of us are male) what about the wives/girlfriends of PBers?

    Me - I pay £10 (standard price at an Ealing barber's). My wife, however, goes to Toni and Guy and pays around £100. To be fair she only goes about once every six months, whereas I have a haircut roughly every six weeks.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    My haircut in theory is provided free of charge my mrs BJO. In reality it works out more expensive than a visit by Mr Sasoon in person
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    'British Worker' on UKIP posters is none other than IRISH actor David O'Rourke

    UKIP = The gift that keeps on giving! http://t.co/pRwrdlWT6t
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,288
    Plane hijacked, apparently on way from Brisbane to Bali
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    CarlottaVance said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's wonderful isn't it: because bankers screwed up, ordinary people are going to have to reveal how much they spend getting their hair cut in order to get a mortgage.

    This doesn't sound that different from when I got my first mortgage 30 years ago - there were checks on your salary, and also a chat about expenses (and the mortgage was capped at 2.5 times salary) - sounds like a return to good practice to me.....
    Well not really - I have no idea what my wife spends on her hair other than it is so much she refuses to tell me. I suspect many others are in the same boat so they will simply be presenting a guess to the mortgage snoops.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    CarlottaVance said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's wonderful isn't it: because bankers screwed up, ordinary people are going to have to reveal how much they spend getting their hair cut in order to get a mortgage.

    This doesn't sound that different from when I got my first mortgage 30 years ago - there were checks on your salary, and also a chat about expenses (and the mortgage was capped at 2.5 times salary) - sounds like a return to good practice to me.....
    I’ll second that – it may sound intrusive to some, but the days of 5x salary and self certified mortgages are over.

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241
    JosiasJessop said:

    A ship for our Scottish friends to bid for?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27129690

    Not allowed to by London unfortunately , unless bids are open till after September
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Cameron admits Sir George Young's seat in NW Hampshire may be being lined up for Boris:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10786294/Boris-Johnson-could-fight-Sir-George-Youngs-seat-at-2015-election-admits-David-Cameron.html
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @JosiasJessop wrote :

    "You spendthrift. Spend £50 on a good set of clippers and shave your had to 11 mm (nearly grade 4). In summer, if it's hot, 9mm."

    ......................................................................

    I'm quite clear Mrs JackW wouldn't have me wandering about looking like some aging skinhead with braces, granddad shirt and dm boots and voting for Ukip !!
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241
    JohnLoony said:

    HurstLlama said:

    There are two things in life I can't bear. David Cameron and unpolished shoes.

    When I was working I never rejected a candidate for his or her like/dislike of a politician but I rejected plenty because they couldn't be bothered to polish their shoes. Takes less than five minutes but makes all the difference to appearance so why not do it? Ignorance or attitude, either one made them unacceptable.

    As I am now fully retired I offer this tip freely. When a Brit comes into the room to discuss business look at their shoes. Anyone whose shoes are dirty and unpolished you can safely ignore as you will never make money with them. The corollary of course is if you go to make a pitch to the likes of Mr. Charles make sure your footwear is gleaming.

    That is an absolutely ludicrous and unacceptable attitude (on your part, not the employee's). You casually and blithely assume that if someone has not polished their shoes it is because they "can't be bothered", when the reality is that it is not important. Whether someone's shoes are polished or not does not in the slightest bit "make all the difference to appearance" unless the whole of someone's appearance and character in being judged by a hysterical moron on the basis of one arbitrary and minor characteristic to the exclusion of anything else which is more relevant.

    I can't say that it has ever even occurred to me to notice whether someone's shoes are polished or not, let alone judge someone according to it.
    Exactly and Charles would most likely have had his polished by one of his servant's into the bargain.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Individual local by-elections tell us very little - look at Horncastle last night - a seat one would have expected UKIP to gain easily.

    Con 38.4%
    Ind 31.4%
    UKIP 30.2%
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,288
    malcolmg said:

    JohnLoony said:

    HurstLlama said:

    There are two things in life I can't bear. David Cameron and unpolished shoes.

    When I was working I never rejected a candidate for his or her like/dislike of a politician but I rejected plenty because they couldn't be bothered to polish their shoes. Takes less than five minutes but makes all the difference to appearance so why not do it? Ignorance or attitude, either one made them unacceptable.

    As I am now fully retired I offer this tip freely. When a Brit comes into the room to discuss business look at their shoes. Anyone whose shoes are dirty and unpolished you can safely ignore as you will never make money with them. The corollary of course is if you go to make a pitch to the likes of Mr. Charles make sure your footwear is gleaming.

    That is an absolutely ludicrous and unacceptable attitude (on your part, not the employee's). You casually and blithely assume that if someone has not polished their shoes it is because they "can't be bothered", when the reality is that it is not important. Whether someone's shoes are polished or not does not in the slightest bit "make all the difference to appearance" unless the whole of someone's appearance and character in being judged by a hysterical moron on the basis of one arbitrary and minor characteristic to the exclusion of anything else which is more relevant.

    I can't say that it has ever even occurred to me to notice whether someone's shoes are polished or not, let alone judge someone according to it.
    Exactly and Charles would most likely have had his polished by one of his servant's into the bargain.
    Don't be silly! Two feet, two servants, half the time...

    I have children for this kind of work.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,261
    My old hairdressers in Derby shut last year. It was a fairly unique place: a barber's shop combined with a railway bookshop. The owner is a real gent and a real character who has a rather eclectic source of local contacts.

    Chris is a great guy, and it was a unique place. There was even an album named after it, and Bill Drummond (of KLF fame) visited for art purposes.

    It is a place I would always nip into to say 'hi!' if I was in Derby. He also liked morris dancing...

    http://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/City-barber-s-doubles-rail-bookshop-shuts/story-19704953-detail/story.html
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241
    edited April 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut? And (as most but not all of us are male) what about the wives/girlfriends of PBers?

    Mine is £4, though it is not much of a cut nowadays so probably expensive per hair. My wife will be around £100 mark.

    Both go every six weeks
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2014
    RochdalePioneers said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    And the same is true of the Tories. When it comes to fear factor I believe more people are afraid of the Tories than of Labour.

    Monksfield said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I do wonder how many people are like me. I cant be arsed to vote in local or Euro elections, but I will definitely vote in the GE, My vote is in a safe seat, but the threat of Miliband will force me out of my armchair.. Miliband is dangerous, that hasn't been factored in yet. When people realise what he would actually do, the picture may well change. Only time will tell.

    What Miliband will do is barely any different to what Cameron or Clegg would do. Your tin foil hat paranoia is hilarious.
    History teaches us that Labour Govts cannot practise fiscal rectitude.. talk about it yes do it no.. that's why Labour are dangerous.. They mustn't be allowed to ruin the recovery.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,038
    Mr. Jessop, sounds like your barber was a splendid fellow of excellent taste.

    Mr. G, a Yorkshireman and a Scot tied for who spends the least. Who would have thought it?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    rcs1000 said:

    Plane hijacked, apparently on way from Brisbane to Bali

    On the ground in Bali:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2612867/BREAKING-NEWS-Virgin-passenger-plane-hijacked-forced-land-Bali-airport.html

    Duke & Duchess of Cambridge in the air en-route from Australia too.......
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    £9 plus a £1 tip and I go when I'm told I look too shaggy to go out in public :-)
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    malcolmg said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    A ship for our Scottish friends to bid for?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27129690

    Not allowed to by London unfortunately , unless bids are open till after September
    Since the UK has ordered ships from Korea, even Scotland not being in the EU should not be a barrier.....assuming the yards have got the expertise (the last British one was built on the Tyne...)

    I would guess STX and the Finns would get it......

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,261
    malcolmg said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    A ship for our Scottish friends to bid for?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27129690

    Not allowed to by London unfortunately , unless bids are open till after September
    Source?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jessop, sounds like your barber was a splendid fellow of excellent taste.

    Mr. G, a Yorkshireman and a Scot tied for who spends the least. Who would have thought it?

    MD I always give him a fiver , does that relegate you to least.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,038
    Mr. G, not least, most frugal.

    And yes.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    BobaFett said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's wonderful isn't it: because bankers screwed up, ordinary people are going to have to reveal how much they spend getting their hair cut in order to get a mortgage.

    This doesn't sound that different from when I got my first mortgage 30 years ago - there were checks on your salary, and also a chat about expenses (and the mortgage was capped at 2.5 times salary) - sounds like a return to good practice to me.....
    Well not really
    You don't think it appropriate for your lender to enquire into the affordability of your loan?

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241
    rcs1000 said:

    malcolmg said:

    JohnLoony said:

    HurstLlama said:

    There are two things in life I can't bear. David Cameron and unpolished shoes.

    When I was working I never rejected a candidate for his or her like/dislike of a politician but I rejected plenty because they couldn't be bothered to polish their shoes. Takes less than five minutes but makes all the difference to appearance so why not do it? Ignorance or attitude, either one made them unacceptable.

    As I am now fully retired I offer this tip freely. When a Brit comes into the room to discuss business look at their shoes. Anyone whose shoes are dirty and unpolished you can safely ignore as you will never make money with them. The corollary of course is if you go to make a pitch to the likes of Mr. Charles make sure your footwear is gleaming.

    That is an absolutely ludicrous and unacceptable attitude (on your part, not the employee's). You casually and blithely assume that if someone has not polished their shoes it is because they "can't be bothered", when the reality is that it is not important. Whether someone's shoes are polished or not does not in the slightest bit "make all the difference to appearance" unless the whole of someone's appearance and character in being judged by a hysterical moron on the basis of one arbitrary and minor characteristic to the exclusion of anything else which is more relevant.

    I can't say that it has ever even occurred to me to notice whether someone's shoes are polished or not, let alone judge someone according to it.
    Exactly and Charles would most likely have had his polished by one of his servant's into the bargain.
    Don't be silly! Two feet, two servants, half the time...

    I have children for this kind of work.
    Children grown up but my lovely wife polishes mine normally.
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited April 2014
    JosiasJessop said:

    AndyJS said:

    I usually pay £7 for a haircut.

    You spendthrift. Spend £50 on a good set of clippers and shave your had to 11 mm (nearly grade 4). In summer, if it's hot, 9mm.

    They last for years. At one trim a month, you soon get your money back ...
    That's very good. I've got a couple of dedicated holders for hair cutting that use razor blades. With a bit of practice you can cut your own, quickly and at any length, with the help of a shaving mirror in the bathroom say. I've submitted to no commercial haircut since I was given an action-ably bad one in the early 70s. This has saved me much money, and more importantly, time---and also the thoroughly disagreeable experience of sitting around in the barber shop culture, although I gather that unisex may have improved things in that regard.
    Here's a tip: never turn down the offer of a hair trim/cut by a lady art student.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    rcs1000 said:

    malcolmg said:

    JohnLoony said:

    HurstLlama said:

    There are two things in life I can't bear. David Cameron and unpolished shoes.

    When I was working I never rejected a candidate for his or her like/dislike of a politician but I rejected plenty because they couldn't be bothered to polish their shoes. Takes less than five minutes but makes all the difference to appearance so why not do it? Ignorance or attitude, either one made them unacceptable.

    As I am now fully retired I offer this tip freely. When a Brit comes into the room to discuss business look at their shoes. Anyone whose shoes are dirty and unpolished you can safely ignore as you will never make money with them. The corollary of course is if you go to make a pitch to the likes of Mr. Charles make sure your footwear is gleaming.

    That is an absolutely ludicrous and unacceptable attitude (on your part, not the employee's). You casually and blithely assume that if someone has not polished their shoes it is because they "can't be bothered", when the reality is that it is not important. Whether someone's shoes are polished or not does not in the slightest bit "make all the difference to appearance" unless the whole of someone's appearance and character in being judged by a hysterical moron on the basis of one arbitrary and minor characteristic to the exclusion of anything else which is more relevant.

    I can't say that it has ever even occurred to me to notice whether someone's shoes are polished or not, let alone judge someone according to it.
    Exactly and Charles would most likely have had his polished by one of his servant's into the bargain.
    I have children for this kind of work.
    I lost one up the chimney......

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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,163
    ThomasNashe said:

    AJK said:

    I wonder how many general elections it will take before the penny drops? 4 parties into FPTP doesn't go, does it? When the Tories realise this, they will have evolved. Until then, they will have to dream of the 1980s. Voters have learned to play the system: look at the opinion polls for Europe and Westminster. So different.

    This may well be the one, if Mike is correct. PR is the tories best chance in the long term - it would enable a fiscally conservative, socially liberal rump to emerge who could plausibly lead governments of the centre.
    Well, there is a four party system in Scotland already, where the opinion polls are again different (I assume the same for Wales but don't really know enough). Look how the Tories in Scotland do under the admittedly gerrymandered voting system - rather than 1 MP they had MSPs in double figures (if in the teens). Under Ms Goldie, they were able to get some key policy decisions made or adjusted to their liking during the SNP minority government.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    malcolmg said:

    JohnLoony said:

    HurstLlama said:

    There are two things in life I can't bear. David Cameron and unpolished shoes.

    When I was working I never rejected a candidate for his or her like/dislike of a politician but I rejected plenty because they couldn't be bothered to polish their shoes. Takes less than five minutes but makes all the difference to appearance so why not do it? Ignorance or attitude, either one made them unacceptable.

    As I am now fully retired I offer this tip freely. When a Brit comes into the room to discuss business look at their shoes. Anyone whose shoes are dirty and unpolished you can safely ignore as you will never make money with them. The corollary of course is if you go to make a pitch to the likes of Mr. Charles make sure your footwear is gleaming.

    That is an absolutely ludicrous and unacceptable attitude (on your part, not the employee's). You casually and blithely assume that if someone has not polished their shoes it is because they "can't be bothered", when the reality is that it is not important. Whether someone's shoes are polished or not does not in the slightest bit "make all the difference to appearance" unless the whole of someone's appearance and character in being judged by a hysterical moron on the basis of one arbitrary and minor characteristic to the exclusion of anything else which is more relevant.

    I can't say that it has ever even occurred to me to notice whether someone's shoes are polished or not, let alone judge someone according to it.
    Exactly and Charles would most likely have had his polished by one of his servant's into the bargain.
    Don't be silly! Two feet, two servants, half the time...

    I have children for this kind of work.
    Children grown up but my lovely wife polishes mine normally.
    Perhaps your good lady and Jacky Smithson should exchange notes ....

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Plane hijacked, apparently on way from Brisbane to Bali

    On the ground in Bali:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2612867/BREAKING-NEWS-Virgin-passenger-plane-hijacked-forced-land-Bali-airport.html

    Duke & Duchess of Cambridge in the air en-route from Australia too.......
    Good spot. Certainly a bit of a coincidence.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Plane hijacked, apparently on way from Brisbane to Bali

    On the ground in Bali:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2612867/BREAKING-NEWS-Virgin-passenger-plane-hijacked-forced-land-Bali-airport.html

    Duke & Duchess of Cambridge in the air en-route from Australia too.......
    Looks like its been resolved:

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-04-25/passenger-arrested-after-virgin-plane-hijack-attempt/

    Pax attempted to enter cockpit & pilot called 'hijack' Too many tinies?
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    CarlottaVance said:

    BobaFett said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's wonderful isn't it: because bankers screwed up, ordinary people are going to have to reveal how much they spend getting their hair cut in order to get a mortgage.

    This doesn't sound that different from when I got my first mortgage 30 years ago - there were checks on your salary, and also a chat about expenses (and the mortgage was capped at 2.5 times salary) - sounds like a return to good practice to me.....
    Well not really
    You don't think it appropriate for your lender to enquire into the affordability of your loan?

    Of course. But asking me how much my wife pays to get her hair done is a fool's errand. I would just give a (probably very bad) guess. Do you know how much your wife spends on her hair?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    JackW said:

    BobaFett said:

    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut?

    That's a very brave question to ask on Mike Smithson's site !!

    Tescos:
    Mr Sheen Spring Fresh Polish 300Ml £1.40
    Tesco Everyday Value Dusters 5 Pack £0.71
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    TGOHF,

    'British Worker' on UKIP posters is none other than IRISH actor David O'Rourke"

    Sorry to be the one to tell you but .... PPBs, posters and political advertising = advertising.

    And those telly adverts where a harassed mum comes up smiling after a domestic emergency is not a real mother who's confiding her woes to a gentleman caller who just happened to have a camera.

    Oh and Kevin Costner isn't really Robin Hood.

    I suspect the real story is that Ukip is getting extra inspection that the other parties don't. But to Ukip, this just feeds into the theme that the "Establishment" is out to get them.

    Welcome to the Establishment, Harry.

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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    bigjohnowls said:

    My haircut in theory is provided free of charge my mrs BJO. In reality it works out more expensive than a visit by Mr Sasoon in person

    My wife's blonde friend revealed to her the other day that she spends £240 on each hairdressing appointment. There appears to be arms race going on.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrTimDunn: The "British" worker in that #UKIP ad is of course... not British. #marketing http://t.co/5Z0ieOXAss (v @qwghlm) http://t.co/VPOjNLKNVo
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    AndyJS said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Plane hijacked, apparently on way from Brisbane to Bali

    On the ground in Bali:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2612867/BREAKING-NEWS-Virgin-passenger-plane-hijacked-forced-land-Bali-airport.html

    Duke & Duchess of Cambridge in the air en-route from Australia too.......
    Good spot. Certainly a bit of a coincidence.
    CarlottaVance said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Plane hijacked, apparently on way from Brisbane to Bali

    On the ground in Bali:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2612867/BREAKING-NEWS-Virgin-passenger-plane-hijacked-forced-land-Bali-airport.html

    Duke & Duchess of Cambridge in the air en-route from Australia too.......
    If they are on their way back does it mean we can be spared the obsequious daily updates about Kate being a good djay (she isn't), Wills being a demon bowler (he isn't) or us being thrilled by the latest frock Kate is wearing (actually we are bored to tears).
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Scott_P said:

    @MrTimDunn: The "British" worker in that #UKIP ad is of course... not British. #marketing http://t.co/5Z0ieOXAss (v @qwghlm) http://t.co/VPOjNLKNVo

    What's your view of the story? I can look at Twitter myself.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Former Gillard advisor bemoans declining support for Australian republicanism:

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-republic-cause-is-receding-20140423-zqy29.html
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BobaFett said:

    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut? And (as most but not all of us are male) what about the wives/girlfriends of PBers?

    £12 if I can be bother to walk 20 mins to the cheap barber. £16 if I'm feeling lazy. My wife spends about £40.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,288
    edited April 2014
    Charles said:

    BobaFett said:

    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut? And (as most but not all of us are male) what about the wives/girlfriends of PBers?

    £12 if I can be bother to walk 20 mins to the cheap barber. £16 if I'm feeling lazy. My wife spends about £40.
    Can I ask your wife to educate my wife...
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    BobaFett said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    BobaFett said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's wonderful isn't it: because bankers screwed up, ordinary people are going to have to reveal how much they spend getting their hair cut in order to get a mortgage.

    This doesn't sound that different from when I got my first mortgage 30 years ago - there were checks on your salary, and also a chat about expenses (and the mortgage was capped at 2.5 times salary) - sounds like a return to good practice to me.....
    Well not really
    You don't think it appropriate for your lender to enquire into the affordability of your loan?

    Of course. But asking me how much my wife pays to get her hair done is a fool's errand. I would just give a (probably very bad) guess. Do you know how much your wife spends on her hair?
    I think you are missing the point – if a couple are applying for a joint mortgage, these are the very questions they should be asking each other if they are to have a realistic idea of what they can afford in mortgage repayments and what sacrifices (if any) must be made. – I’d like to think most people realise this before applying for a mortgage, others will need ‘prompting’ for want of a better word.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    @Toms said, "Here's a tip: never turn down the offer of a hair trim/cut by a lady art student. "

    Absolutely, I have not paid for a haircut for the last 10 years at least - except when overseas. Round here we do not have Toni & Guy but most of the local establishments are unisex and only a bit cheaper.

    However, the best hairdresser seems to have an unending succession of trainees and so every 2 weeks I have a FOC trim given by a friendly young lady. However, it is rare to have the same one in succession as most seem not able to work an 8 hour day and Saturdays and revert back to living on benefits - more sleep and less hassle I am told.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Haircut survey.£5.80 for no 1 to hair,beard and eyebrow trim,back is extra and bring your own talc..Not bad for every 3 months or before dental appointments where they complain about being able to get access to the mouth.
    Health warning-beware "Organic" hair spray.I developed a nasty rash across the neck and back,necessitating a visit to an NHS walk-in,one that is subject to possible closure by the way.On examining the ingredients of the spray,the nurse on duty revealed all.It was a nettle rash,from nettles used to make the hair spray.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    CD13 said:


    I suspect the real story is that Ukip is getting extra inspection that the other parties don't. But to Ukip, this just feeds into the theme that the "Establishment" is out to get them.

    Welcome to the Establishment, Harry.

    No, I think UKIP (and since 2010, the Lib Dems) are getting the scrutiny that Con & Lab have had for years - and their reaction is very similar to the Lib Dems over their embarrassments.....
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,038
    Mr. Pete, did you treat it with dock leaves? [Not being sarcastic, incidentally, dock leaves do alleviate nettle stings].
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Bobba,

    If you believe what you see in advertising, I know a nice Nigerian gentleman who would like to offer you a business proposition online. Unless, you're a Ukip candidate, of course.

    Ooops, I've just joined the "Establishment".

    But they certainly are getting a rigorous going over that the other parties don't.
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    BobaFett said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrTimDunn: The "British" worker in that #UKIP ad is of course... not British. #marketing http://t.co/5Z0ieOXAss (v @qwghlm) http://t.co/VPOjNLKNVo

    What's your view of the story? I can look at Twitter myself.

    Will that be the South African born Kipper who featured in the UKIP PPB moaning about migrants coming to take British jobs and then was caught out making allegedly racist rants on twitter? Nearly as good as the Farage PA pretending several times to be an ordinary voter.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    Cameron admits Sir George Young's seat in NW Hampshire may be being lined up for Boris:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10786294/Boris-Johnson-could-fight-Sir-George-Youngs-seat-at-2015-election-admits-David-Cameron.html

    Paddy Power still has Boris to stand at all at 5/6. (Young's seat specifically is 9/2.)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Easterross said:


    Will that be the South African born Kipper who featured in the UKIP PPB moaning about migrants coming to take British jobs and then was caught out making allegedly racist rants on twitter? Nearly as good as the Farage PA pretending several times to be an ordinary voter.

    Tragically it's a different non-British worker in a different UKIP ad
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,149
    JackW said:

    BobaFett said:

    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut?

    That's a very brave question to ask on Mike Smithson's site !!

    £10 plus £1 in the charity box when it's done by the nice Thai lady who works in the one I go to in England. She also does eyebrows, nose and ear hair. (All iclusiven) If the proprietor does it it's £9 plus the £ and, if wanted, one also gets a full account of West Ham's last home match.
    Having said that it's often worth sitting there for an hour or so just for the local gossip.
    Plus free spirits Christmas week!

    Slightly under a £ when done by the Thai lady I go to in Thailand, but she doesn't do eyebrows etc.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Carlotta,

    I don't disagree, but it can come over as people in glass houses leading the stone throwing.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751
    I've been building up a similar portfolio.

    With both Ladbrokes and Publicity Shy Paddy Power.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751
    Irony Alert.

    Man U v Norwich tomorrow, and it is the Man U manager who is famous for sleeping with his family.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    CD13 said:

    Carlotta,

    I don't disagree, but it can come over as people in glass houses leading the stone throwing.

    I think its simply throwing stones back! Both Lab & Con (and the SNP since they entered government) have been hauled up over their 'fake' 'real people' - it goes with the territory - suck it up and get your agency to do their homework......
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    OldKingCole said:

    JackW said:

    BobaFett said:

    Just out of interest, what do other PBers pay for a haircut?

    That's a very brave question to ask on Mike Smithson's site !!

    £10 plus £1 in the charity box when it's done by the nice Thai lady who works in the one I go to in England. She also does eyebrows, nose and ear hair. (All iclusiven) If the proprietor does it it's £9 plus the £ and, if wanted, one also gets a full account of West Ham's last home match.
    Having said that it's often worth sitting there for an hour or so just for the local gossip.
    Plus free spirits Christmas week!

    Slightly under a £ when done by the Thai lady I go to in Thailand, but she doesn't do eyebrows etc.
    Poor OGH must be pulling his hair out over the thread direction .... and it's not my fault !!

    Titters ....

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Haircut every 6-8 months or so, a friend of mine does it - no charge but I give her a tenner. She's a trained hairdresser but works in retail.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/labour-fears-loss-of-coops-1m-gift-not-its-loan-9284630.html

    "And today, sources at the bank made it clear that far from Labour approaching it to transfer its loan elsewhere, it was the bank that told Labour it was no longer keen on its business.

    “We are not looking at big organisations any more,” a source at the bank recently said. “We are looking to move non-core customers elsewhere.”

    It is understood that in discussions, Co-op informed Labour it was going significantly to increase the charges in relation to the loan – triggering the move."
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Easterross said:

    BobaFett said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrTimDunn: The "British" worker in that #UKIP ad is of course... not British. #marketing http://t.co/5Z0ieOXAss (v @qwghlm) http://t.co/VPOjNLKNVo

    What's your view of the story? I can look at Twitter myself.

    Will that be the South African born Kipper who featured in the UKIP PPB moaning about migrants coming to take British jobs and then was caught out making allegedly racist rants on twitter? Nearly as good as the Farage PA pretending several times to be an ordinary voter.
    They're just taking tips from labour...not everyone can afford proper actors pretending to be 'ordinary people'

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    Ed's 'zero-hours' 'U-turn' coming in for flak:

    Why has Labour watered down its plans to tackle zero-hour contracts?
    The party previously suggested that workers would be offered a full-time contract after 12 weeks. But that period has been extended to a year.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/why-has-labour-watered-down-its-plans-tackle-zero-hour-contracts

    And Hardman reckons it will do little to shore up the Union:

    Labour’s unimpressive ‘zero hours’ announcement

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/labours-unimpressive-zero-hours-announcement/
This discussion has been closed.