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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Most of the counting following the May 22nd local elections
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Most of the counting following the May 22nd local elections will take place the following day
The latest information 68 councils intend to count overnight and 93 to start counting on Friday. So all the fun will come on the Friday.
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Sorry, couldn't resist ...
Edit: why do they count the next day? Is it simply a cost issue? If so, do we have any idea how much is saved?
Oh, and first.
It's like wacky races with OGH as Dick Darstadly!
"An exclusive YouGov poll for The Sun revealed the anti-EU party is set to win a jumbo 27% of the nation's support on May 22, the highest figure ever notched up by any outsider"
So lets not start saying that it will be seen as a disaster if they don't win eh?
This is how the public will see it
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5584190/Ukips-euro-election-vote-will-more-than-double.html
Needless to say, :-)
Chances are counting everything would take a while, so doing it the next day would save a fair bit
For some reason, the PEBs are done in different weeks for each nation. Perhaps its to spread out any advantage/disadvantage?
"Each country has their own set of broadcasts. The Conservatives were on in Wales as well (with a similar, but not identical broadcast to England), plus the SNP in Scotland and Sinn Fein in NI. The SNP one is notable for failing to mention Europe at all, being entirely on the topic of independence.
The current schedule is
ENGLAND
WEEK 1: none / Con / UKIP / Lab / LD
WEEK 2: Grn / BNP / Con / UKIP / ??
SCOTLAND
WEEK 1: none / SNP / Lab / Con / LD
WEEK 2: Grn / Lab / Con / LD / SNP
WALES
WEEK 1: none / Con / Lab / PC / UKIP
WEEK 2: LD / ?? / Con / UKIP / ??
NORTHERN IRELAND
WEEK 1: none / SF / DUP / UUP / SDLP
WEEK 2: All / TUV / SF / UUP / DUP"
Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/4153
Which is odd, because I thought we'd already had the LD one.
FPT @Antifrank
Presumably UKIP are in the Arkansas chuggabug.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Penelope Pitstop is the UK and UKIP are the Anthill Mob
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdfxWOQ9dIs&
I think Harrow is counting overnight, so it might be borough by borough and not one time for all of London.
"Ukip will be given the same status as the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats for election broadcasts and news coverage of the May 22 contest.
However, it only applies to England and Wales as Ukip's limited support in Scotland means it will not have to be treated as a major party by broadcasters north of the border or in news coverage focusing solely on Scottish constituencies."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10674846/Ukip-must-be-treated-like-any-major-party-Ofcom-rules.html
So the scots will just have to tune in to YouTube!
http://www.youtube.com/user/ukipofficial
pretty good description of the press.....no wonder they pretended not to understand it.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up two to five points: CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%
UKIP up 3
electionista @electionista 10m
UK - average of #EP2014 polls:
LAB 31.6%
UKIP 26.4%
CON 22.9%
LDEM 8.6%
GRN 4.2%
Paddy Power still have Evens on most seats for Lab and William Hill are offering 6/5 party with most votes.
As Mike pointed out there's not long before the postal vote has been posted back so little time for them to change things.After spending the day in hospital I can only say the feedback from the wards is that the response to UKIP's posters was to increase nausea,amongst the nursing staff, so maybe the poster campaign has made as many minds up agin UKIP as for them.UKIP, too,has been targetted by the Murdoch owned press,and now has the BBC's Nick Robinson up their backs.I have no doubt the fruitier aspects of some of UKIP's brethren other than Farage will draw unfavourable attention alongside soon.Even so they may claw a bit more back,not enough I think to beat a 5% + poll lead
Labour's campaign on the bread and butter issues that people care about is nothing earthshattering but steady and solid.
All of which means that a trip to WH is in order for a point's worth at 6/5.
Coming in the next day after a good night's sleep and just that bit of distance, the atmosphere is much better, in my experience
Well you won the last European elections and have led the government for the last four years. What change have you delivered so far? A smaller increase to the UK contribution?
Can't they move the Euro results to assist me, please.
Despite the venue being the Phones4U arena, there's bugger all internet connectivity on your mobile phone in there.
At least it's better than the US situation where you had to check websites for each individual county to get the results for a particular state. In Illinois, for example, that meant checking 102 websites.
Surely you mean 10 *point* lead?
Maths indeed ;-)
Pressured the Prime Minister into offering an IN/OUT referendum.
Take two days off. Win lose or draw....it is your sworn duty to get hammered along with your helpers
http://election.pressassociation.com/declaration_times.php
I'm curious as to how Avery would explain away an increase in government borrowing from £81bn to £96bn in his Maxwell style pension fund borrowing counting.
You are failing to realise the long term plan, no referendum means all those MP's stay in place, thus bolstering the party coffers to really screw the Tories "nutz"
(take all denials of ukippers as proof that they are trying counter propaganda)
You can set your watch by YouGov.
But back in reality, a Milliband led government will drive through further integration into the European project.
And Nigel keeps riding the gravy train. Toot Toot!
Bit of a pity though that it was also £48 billion quid more than he predicted it would be in his first budget.
To put the £108bn borrowing of 2013/14 into context, in the eleven years Margaret Thatcher was prime minister total government borrowing was approximately £60bn.
No skin off my nose, I am Lib Dem.
I suppose electing a UK govt that had withdrawal in it's manifesto would be proxy for an OUT vote, so a referendum wouldn't be necessary
Some might point out that less than 50% had voted for them (if they had) though so it might lack legitimacy
"Wishful thinking."
I think that has been said before in politics.
And went on the wrong date - a week early to be precise.
But I was intelligent enough not to give my name.
A week later I passed the test.
The other night I mentioned how Western intelligence had identified the Chinese firm that was supplying bulk Chlorine supplies that were making their way to Syria for use in alleged chemical weapons attacks.
In the last few hours the Chinese government has said it is investigating whether one of its own major companies, Norinco, was supplying the gear after Chlorine gas canisters bearing the Chinese combines insignia were reported found on the ground at the sites of alleged attacks.
Interestingly the Chinese statement refers to the Chlorine not just the canisters. In short they are getting their retaliation in first pointing out that Chlorine has many uses. My understanding is that the canisters are supplied empty and the bulk chemical then inserted at locations much closer to Damascus than to Beijing.
The Chinese authorities know exactly what the story is but the fact that they have broken radio silence is interesting.
As I mentioned the other night this is a slow burner.
PS tension on the Israeli Lebanese/Syrian border is very very high.
Imo, that proves that, contrary to the Westminster bubble's groupthink, normal people just don't care about the public finances or whether the deficit is cut or not, and they never have. In a narrow sense, that might seem to favour the Conservatives, since no-one will care that they failed to meet their promise of eliminating the deficit because they never thought that was important in the first place. But on the other hand, it could potentially favour Labour because it means they can (if they have the balls to withstand jeers from the Westminster chatterati) afford to not pledge to cut the deficit precisely because of that lack of public concern about it.
Do they ever have local government reorganisations there ?
So that's why I think, if UKIP do very well in the Euros/locals next month, Miliband will put a referendum in the manifesto. I bet it at 2/1 with Richard Nabavi yesterday
It was when they began to appear obviously incompetent that they took a hit. All Labour have to do is avoid making any major cock-ups, and given they are not in government that should be pretty easy, and though they might take some hit from those who do care about such figures and who might cut the deficit faster, most people will not care as much,
If George Osborne has money to spend at the next budget, which of the following do you think should be his main priority?
Income tax cuts 41%
Reducing the deficit 22%
Increasing public spending 21%
Reducing business taxes 4%
None/don't know 11%
The public don't exactly seem to be obsessively fretting about supposed "profligacy".
Most people don't even know what deficit means, not a Scooby.
In any case, I'm not sure that that poll tells you very much, given that it starts from the premise that there is 'money to spend'.
Looks like we've got the BBC onside. Bet No - Vote No
There will be those that claim insurgents are responsible but all evidence points to air dropped gas canisters that are in turn packed into barrels with small detonator charges.
There ought to be a few tickets available for members of the public to observe the process.
People getting excited about UKIP having election date wrong in PEB. But they are citing a PEB from last year. Whoops pic.twitter.com/t1hj20xteW
Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll sees UKIP up 3 to 15 equalling their highest for the year CON 32 LAB 37 LD 10 UKIP 15
But, yes, the deficit deniers, be they cynical or (God forbid!) sincere, are certainly still a major force in Labour. That's why the outcome I most fear is a weak Labour-led government in a hung parliament, where they'd have maximum influence.
Neither would offer because they think its fair and democratic. They just want power and this is a way of helping secure it.
Answer: yes they are, for the first time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_(European_Parliament_constituency)#2014
In my experience, the main complaints about Labour are that they don't know what the party stands for either positively or negatively, that they think EdM is a bit of a joke and out of his depth, that Labour have forgotten about the working class and that they let too many immigrants in. (I also don't hear people complaining that they're "soft on welfare" all that much either, despite what the Westminster bubble have convinced themselves.)
The BNP erroneously had a candidate elected about five years ago in Birmingham, and in 2010 there was a mistake in Walthamstow which wasn't noticed at the time:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/liberal-democrats-high-street-waltham-forest-recount-21044.html
There's an amusing scramble and elbow jostling amongst the partisans to get good position and desperately scribble notes on how the votes from each box break down.
Then some whispered visual reckoning on the size of the piles to reckon the result.
I remember in the '08 local elections I ended up in pontypool at a recount at about 4am (having started leafleting at 4am the morning before). Watching someone count votes it was all I could do to stay awake.
You seem very dyspeptic.
Let's look at those figures again.
This is what St. George said in his 2010 budget:
"As a result of the measures I will announce today, public sector net borrowing will be: £149 billion this year, falling to £116 billion next year, then £89 billion in 2012-13, and then £60 billion in 2013-14. By 2014-15 borrowing reaches £37 billion, exactly half the amount forecast in the March Budget."
Let's look at that 2010 forecast for 'PSNB ex' and compare it to actual outcomes as published in the latest Public Finances Bulletin from the ONS: This looks like very accurate forecasting to me. Especially within the context and complexity of a national economy.
1. In three out of four years borrowing has come in under the original forecast.
2. The cumulative error after four years is 7.2% of forecast total borrowing for the period.
3. The overshoot only occurred in the fourth year of forecast.
Find me another Chancellor who has been more accurate over a four year forward forecast!
And what you are missing is the performance on real borrowing, i.e. performance against the net financing remit submitted to the DMO at each budget.
But I shall leave you to digest the above before giving away any more secrets.