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Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in 2016 any more – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,189
edited June 13 in General
Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in 2016 any more – politicalbetting.com

In our Makerfield constituency poll we also asked people how they might vote in a future EU referendum. Despite the fact the constituency voted 65% to Leave in 2016 our poll suggests residents would now be more likely to vote to rejoin.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 28,453
    First old chap
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    Rupert Lowe: ‘If Tommy Robinson wants to join us that’s up to him’

    The leader of Restore Britain — he loathes Tony Blair but likes Enoch Powell — is warning of retribution on the people who ruined Britain

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rupert-lowe-restore-britain-leader-interview-m32gqrzv0
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,023
    45% for rejoin the EU almost exactly matches Burnham’s vote in Makerfield so no surprise. All the 38% for Stay Out likely voting Reform or Restore.

    Still less than half for Rejoin though and over 10% DK. As a poll last week showed if Rejoin required joining the Euro and Schengen then Stay Out would retake the lead
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,034
    It's been 10 years since the referendum. Changing voter demographics alone (~15% voter turnover over 10 years) could have been enough to reverse the 4% margin.

    I don't expect it to be on the agenda anytime soon, especially not with Reform in the ascendency, but it's important to remember Rejoin could win without a single person changing their previous vote.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,453
    The brilliant Duncan Disorderly is on the ITV panel for the soccer tonight.

    How did he get into the US ?

    I thought you couldn’t get in if you’ve spent time at Her Majesty’s Pleasure.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,852
    I love threads about Brexit. They always bring out the best of us 🤓
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,005
    We need a fact check from @dixiedean

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2065858608730960112

    So I'm told local people regard the term "Platt Waz" as quite derogatory. Which would not be entirely out of keeping with the tenor of Rob Kenyon's campaign...

    https://x.com/RobKenyonReform/status/2065823238668562550

    Out on the doorsteps in Platt Waz this afternoon
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,492
    Unless an election comes round where rejoining is a salient issue, it doesn't matter a lot, surely?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    AnneJGP said:

    Unless an election comes round where rejoining is a salient issue, it doesn't matter a lot, surely?

    nope.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,587
    Is it worth remembering that almost every poll showed Remain winning, some by large margins?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Rupert Lowe: ‘If Tommy Robinson wants to join us that’s up to him’

    The leader of Restore Britain — he loathes Tony Blair but likes Enoch Powell — is warning of retribution on the people who ruined Britain

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rupert-lowe-restore-britain-leader-interview-m32gqrzv0

    It can't happen here latest.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,222
    If you could vote for me to remain or leave, what would you choose?
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,453
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    If you could vote for me to remain or leave, what would you choose?

    Neither

    You decide.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    ydoethur said:

    Is it worth remembering that almost every poll showed Remain winning, some by large margins?

    Nah in June 2016 alone we had polls showing Leave leading by as much as 10%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    CatMan said:

    I love threads about Brexit. They always bring out the best of us 🤓

    You'll be delighted to know I've got several threads planned for the tenth anniversary of when then UK voted to impose economic sanctions on itself, which is ten days away.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    I had a siesta today, between 4.30pm and 8pm, I highly recommend them.

    All so I can watch Scotland v Haiti at 2am.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    Also my four week holiday begins in less than a fortnight.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339
    edited June 13
    FPT:
    rcs1000 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FF43 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FF43 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    LostPassword said:

    Barnesian said:

    LostPassword said:

    Barnesian said:

    LostPassword said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think the "bond market" is used as a bogeyman.

    Truss really upset the bond markets by her cavalier cutting of taxes with a complete rejection of the OBR or any expert opinion of the consequences. But that was very extreme.

    If I were Starmer I would get Bowler, Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, and Rachel Reeves in a room and say to Bowler "We are going to provide an extra £20b for defence by borrowing it, a War Bond if you like. I want you to find the best way of doing and presenting this. I don't want any objections. Just do it. If you feel you can't, then I'm happy to accept your resignation."
    And then to Rachel "Rachel I need your support on this. If not, then I'm happy to accept your resignation too."

    The bond markets will accept higher borrowing during war, because the survival of the state is at risk, and if the state does not survive then none of the existing government debt gets repaid.

    I don't think you can work that argument absent total war like WWI and WWII, simply by calling the extra debt war bonds.

    Remember that the bond market has been very lenient in allowing Britain to borrow vast sums of money already to spend on whatever it likes. But it's done so because there's always be a plan to stop borrowing within x years, and so there's been confidence that the money can be repaid.

    If your government finance plan involves borrowing so much that you can't even create a theoretical explanation of how you would close the deficit in five years then you shouldn't expect anyone to willingly lend you money, because they would have no confidence in being repaid.
    That's not how it works.
    There's never a plan to stop borrowing or repay all the debt. Any specific debt will repaid when it falls due by rolling it over and borrowing more. That is how businesses finance themselves.
    The UK public debt is about equal to the UK's annual income (GDP). Households often have mortgages much in excess of 100% of their annual income.
    It is what all the various fiscal rules have been about, and why British budget plans continue to include fictional increases in fuel duty in future years, so that the budget deficit can be shown to be reduced at the end of the budget plan.

    I think your are missing deficit and debt. I did not claim that there's a plan for Britain to repay the debt, but there is a plan to close the deficit - and that's what creates the confidence to allow Britain to continue borrowing.
    You said "But it's done so because there's always be a plan to stop borrowing within x years, and so there's been confidence that the money can be repaid."

    I'm not confusing deficit and debt. It looks as if you are.

    The current fiscal rules are that day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenues rather than by borrowing, but the government can borrow to fund long-term capital investments.
    Some defence expenditure will be capital investment.
    I was using "repaid" in an informal sense - i.e. that the country is good for the money. But if the government lose the confidence of the bond market then they won't be able to roll over debt, and so existing debt won't be able to be repaid when it falls due. So it's relevant without it being a scenario where the total amount of debt is reduced.

    The point being that we can only borrow if there is credibility over the country's solvency, and that means demonstrating that there are limits on our borrowing.

    Truss showed how brittle that credibility was. Simply adding increases in defence spending to already high levels of borrowing isn't credible in my view.
    I don't know why we're still using the Truss episode as the nadir of bond market instability when things now (afaik) are far worse. It is Reeves and Starmer who get the gold medal.
    I lost a quarter of the value of one of my pensions, on supposedly low risk investments, thanks to Liz Truss.

    I don't feel warm and fuzzy towards her.
    Nobody is asking you to feel warm and fuzzy.
    , just to stay vaguely in touch with the facts.
    The facts are that Liz Truss willfully did a stupid thing, which had bad consequences. Why should anyone afford her the benefit of the tiniest doubt? She deserves every bit of blame in her direction, and to the extent she involved the Conservative Party in her shenanigans, so do they.
    Dear Lord in heaven above, sorry to shout, but BOND YIELDS ARE HIGHER NOW THAN THEY WERE DURING THE WORST OF THE LDI/MINIBUDGET CRISIS.

    I am really struggling to see what part of this you don't understand. There is a higher premium for lending to Starmer and Reeves than there was for lending to Truss and Kwarteng. And that's without an energy price shock, or the Bank of England deciding to flog off £80bn bonds.

    I don't particularly wish to relitigate the minibudget - by all means think as you wish, I am merely saying that the borrowing position is worse now.
    Isn't is more intellectually honest than to compare the premium (or discount!) that investors demand for holding UK assets relative to peers?
    No. If anything, the fact that other countries are looking iffier than before would have a beneficial impact on British bond yields if we looked credible, because it would drive people toward lending here as a safe haven.

    We are doing worse than Truss because we are doing worse. The bond markets are 'not ideological' as people here are so fond of solemnly opining (though not so much recently oddly).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,557
    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    The most historically inaccurate film ever made.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,852
    ydoethur said:

    Is it worth remembering that almost every poll showed Remain winning, some by large margins?

    Really? There might have been the occasional one showing a large lead, but the averages looks pretty close to me

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it worth remembering that almost every poll showed Remain winning, some by large margins?

    Nah in June 2016 alone we had polls showing Leave leading by as much as 10%
    The wikiworm graph is here:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

    Biggest average lead was Remain by about 7% in summer 2015; it started closing fairly steadily after that, mostly with DK's breaking for Leave.

    And for now, the only political effect is that Leavers have sufficient support to be a blocking minority. Although Brexit is unpopular, its supporters are numerous enough and enthusiastic enough to scare off substantial moves to undo their lifetime achievement. It stinks out a lot of political space, but that's all.

    The much harder questions are whether the movement we've seen in recent years (more people wanting to undo what looks like a bad idea) continues, and what the blocking minority threshold is. it's not written down anywhere, but I suspect we'll know it if it arrives.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,222
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    The most historically inaccurate film ever made.
    Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,557
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Stephen Yaxley-Lennon Tommy Robinson was detained at Heathrow Airport under Section 3 of the Counter-Terrorism and Border Security Act 2019, and authorities seized his mobile phone.

    The “again” in his first sentence is superfluous.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,487
    Entirely predictable, now that people have discovered that far from solving all our problems as was dishonestly promised or implied, Brexit has actually made some of them worse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531

    Cllr Rob Kenyon
    @RobKenyonReform
    ·
    1h
    Westminster journalist spends one day in Wigan then lectures locals on what to call our places...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,542
    IanB2 said:

    Entirely predictable, now that people have discovered that far from solving all our problems as was dishonestly promised or implied, Brexit has actually made some of them worse.

    That's the fault of Bozo and his gang, not the concept of Brexit.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 6,071
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    The most historically inaccurate film ever made.
    I'd like to introduce you to John Wayne playing Genghis Khan :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjz-DJz8Kdg

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,542
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also my four week holiday begins in less than a fortnight.

    I didn't realise you had joined the civil service.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,073
    SandyRentool said:

    IanB2 said:

    Entirely predictable, now that people have discovered that far from solving all our problems as was dishonestly promised or implied, Brexit has actually made some of them worse.

    That's the fault of Bozo and his gang, not the concept of Brexit.
    Which of the Brexit gangs wouldn't have made a mess of it? Farage, Boris, Gove, Cummings, Corbyn, Hannan, Francois, ReesMogg, they are all dysfunctional.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,098
    HYUFD said:

    45% for rejoin the EU almost exactly matches Burnham’s vote in Makerfield so no surprise. All the 38% for Stay Out likely voting Reform or Restore.

    Still less than half for Rejoin though and over 10% DK. As a poll last week showed if Rejoin required joining the Euro and Schengen then Stay Out would retake the lead

    A poll that lists arguments for one side of a debate only isn’t of much value. Also, it seems unlikely that, should the UK rejoin, that Schengen would be a requirement.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,542
    noneoftheabove said:

    SandyRentool said:

    IanB2 said:

    Entirely predictable, now that people have discovered that far from solving all our problems as was dishonestly promised or implied, Brexit has actually made some of them worse.

    That's the fault of Bozo and his gang, not the concept of Brexit.
    Which of the Brexit gangs wouldn't have made a mess of it? Farage, Boris, Gove, Cummings, Corbyn, Hannan, Francois, ReesMogg, they are all dysfunctional.
    A Labour government.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,315
    edited June 13
    noneoftheabove said:

    SandyRentool said:

    IanB2 said:

    Entirely predictable, now that people have discovered that far from solving all our problems as was dishonestly promised or implied, Brexit has actually made some of them worse.

    That's the fault of Bozo and his gang, not the concept of Brexit.
    Which of the Brexit gangs wouldn't have made a mess of it? Farage, Boris, Gove, Cummings, Corbyn, Hannan, Francois, ReesMogg, they are all dysfunctional.
    Brexit is forever, not just for Christmas. Permenently redeemable.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,542
    bondegezou said:

    HYUFD said:

    45% for rejoin the EU almost exactly matches Burnham’s vote in Makerfield so no surprise. All the 38% for Stay Out likely voting Reform or Restore.

    Still less than half for Rejoin though and over 10% DK. As a poll last week showed if Rejoin required joining the Euro and Schengen then Stay Out would retake the lead

    A poll that lists arguments for one side of a debate only isn’t of much value. Also, it seems unlikely that, should the UK rejoin, that Schengen would be a requirement.
    We should be in Schengen regardless of EU membership.

    Being outside hardly achieves the objective of securing our borders.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,073
    SandyRentool said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    SandyRentool said:

    IanB2 said:

    Entirely predictable, now that people have discovered that far from solving all our problems as was dishonestly promised or implied, Brexit has actually made some of them worse.

    That's the fault of Bozo and his gang, not the concept of Brexit.
    Which of the Brexit gangs wouldn't have made a mess of it? Farage, Boris, Gove, Cummings, Corbyn, Hannan, Francois, ReesMogg, they are all dysfunctional.
    A Labour government.
    Forgive me for not having faith in Corbyn et al, even before trying to understand how a Labour Brexit govt would be formed when 80% of their MPs were against it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,073
    carnforth said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    SandyRentool said:

    IanB2 said:

    Entirely predictable, now that people have discovered that far from solving all our problems as was dishonestly promised or implied, Brexit has actually made some of them worse.

    That's the fault of Bozo and his gang, not the concept of Brexit.
    Which of the Brexit gangs wouldn't have made a mess of it? Farage, Boris, Gove, Cummings, Corbyn, Hannan, Francois, ReesMogg, they are all dysfunctional.
    Brexit is forever, not just for Christmas. Permenently redeemable.
    Nothing is forever. Yes we should redeem ourselves.....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,382
    edited June 13
    This swing seems much larger than for the country as a whole. Two obvious possibilities.

    1. Population change in the constituency has brought in more Remain voters.
    2. The polling result is a sign that the sample has picked up more Remain voters than it should have (due to false recall, perhaps) and so the polling is wrong, which also implies that Reform have a much better chance of winning the by-election than the opinion poll would suggest.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,882
    ydoethur said:

    Is it worth remembering that almost every poll showed Remain winning, some by large margins?

    Not quite: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,542
    noneoftheabove said:

    SandyRentool said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    SandyRentool said:

    IanB2 said:

    Entirely predictable, now that people have discovered that far from solving all our problems as was dishonestly promised or implied, Brexit has actually made some of them worse.

    That's the fault of Bozo and his gang, not the concept of Brexit.
    Which of the Brexit gangs wouldn't have made a mess of it? Farage, Boris, Gove, Cummings, Corbyn, Hannan, Francois, ReesMogg, they are all dysfunctional.
    A Labour government.
    Forgive me for not having faith in Corbyn et al, even before trying to understand how a Labour Brexit govt would be formed when 80% of their MPs were against it.
    A Labour government, accepting the will of the people, but not idealogically wedded to sticking two fingers up to Brussels, would have been more pragmatic, maintaining closer relations where in our best interests while making the most of the opportunities of our new-found freedom.

    That's what I voted for.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,882
    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    ...which shows the Scottish side losing and its captain being disembowelled, castrated, and dismembered.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,509
    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    ...which shows the Scottish side losing and its captain being disembowelled, castrated, and dismembered.
    You don't mess with Haiti.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    ohnotnow said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    The most historically inaccurate film ever made.
    I'd like to introduce you to John Wayne playing Genghis Khan :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjz-DJz8Kdg

    My all time favourite John Wayne miscasting was in The Longest Day when the 55 year old John Wayne played the 27 year old Benjamin H. Vandervoort.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also my four week holiday begins in less than a fortnight.

    I didn't realise you had joined the civil service.
    Private sector, I have a generous holiday allowance, I rolled some over from last year, I've TOILed a few weeks when the shit hit the fan earlier on this year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    Justice for Qatar.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,089
    edited June 13
    HYUFD said:

    45% for rejoin the EU almost exactly matches Burnham’s vote in Makerfield so no surprise. All the 38% for Stay Out likely voting Reform or Restore.

    Still less than half for Rejoin though and over 10% DK. As a poll last week showed if Rejoin required joining the Euro and Schengen then Stay Out would retake the lead

    On that basis it was only 37.5% voted for Leave in 2016.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,509
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    The most historically inaccurate film ever made.
    There must be a bunch where America won WW2 without any help from their Allies?

    One about U-boats and Enigma rings a bell....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,148
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Justice for Qatar.

    The Swiss will be cross with that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    The most historically inaccurate film ever made.
    There must be a bunch where America won WW2 without any help from their Allies?

    One about U-boats and Enigma rings a bell....
    U-571.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,509
    Late leveller from Qatar....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,542
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also my four week holiday begins in less than a fortnight.

    I didn't realise you had joined the civil service.
    Private sector, I have a generous holiday allowance, I rolled some over from last year, I've TOILed a few weeks when the shit hit the fan earlier on this year.
    I have fond memories of my 33 days annual leave plus up to 13 flexidays from my time at British Gas.

    Public sector Ts&Cs carried over into the private sector.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,509
    edited June 13
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    The most historically inaccurate film ever made.
    There must be a bunch where America won WW2 without any help from their Allies?

    One about U-boats and Enigma rings a bell....
    U-571.
    That'll be it.

    Cracking review from Time Out:

    "Without much charge and even less depth...."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also my four week holiday begins in less than a fortnight.

    I didn't realise you had joined the civil service.
    Private sector, I have a generous holiday allowance, I rolled some over from last year, I've TOILed a few weeks when the shit hit the fan earlier on this year.
    God knows what hell you are exposing us all to to by going on holiday yet again.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also my four week holiday begins in less than a fortnight.

    I didn't realise you had joined the civil service.
    Private sector, I have a generous holiday allowance, I rolled some over from last year, I've TOILed a few weeks when the shit hit the fan earlier on this year.
    God knows what hell you are exposing us all to to by going on holiday yet again.

    The first two weeks is mostly at home watching the knockout phases of the world cup.

    Last time Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested, the Greens won a by-election, and Trump & Bibi started their short war.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also my four week holiday begins in less than a fortnight.

    I didn't realise you had joined the civil service.
    Private sector, I have a generous holiday allowance, I rolled some over from last year, I've TOILed a few weeks when the shit hit the fan earlier on this year.
    I have fond memories of my 33 days annual leave plus up to 13 flexidays from my time at British Gas.

    Public sector Ts&Cs carried over into the private sector.
    I get 25 days plus stats, plus 1 year for every full year I've worked here (capped at 10 years) and technically I've been here since 2011.

    In certain circumstances I can buy 10 to 20 days, plus TOIL up to 10 days.

    Two years ago when I had my surgery I was off work for seven weeks on full pay, I've been fortunate I've always worked for great employers
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also my four week holiday begins in less than a fortnight.

    I didn't realise you had joined the civil service.
    Private sector, I have a generous holiday allowance, I rolled some over from last year, I've TOILed a few weeks when the shit hit the fan earlier on this year.
    God knows what hell you are exposing us all to to by going on holiday yet again.

    The first two weeks is mostly at home watching the knockout phases of the world cup.

    Last time Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested, the Greens won a by-election, and Trump & Bibi started their short war.
    Will Burnham be PM by the time you return from leave?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,920
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ohnotnow said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    The most historically inaccurate film ever made.
    I'd like to introduce you to John Wayne playing Genghis Khan :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjz-DJz8Kdg

    My all time favourite John Wayne miscasting was in The Longest Day when the 55 year old John Wayne played the 27 year old Benjamin H. Vandervoort.
    A 38 year old John Mills played 21 year old Pip in the 1946 version of Great Expectations.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,005
    edited June 13
    https://x.com/lara_spirit/status/2065904867600674824

    EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham has *12-point* lead in new Makerfield poll

    Labour: 49
    Reform: 37
    Greens: 5
    Restore: 5
    Conservative: 3
    Lib Dem: 1
    Other: 1

    Poll conducted by @convergentrsrch – newly established by Dylan Spielman and Fintan Smith, who led Labour’s polling and data op in the 2024 general election

    Fieldwork 2-12 June / sample 525
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,920
    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    ...which shows the Scottish side losing and its captain being disembowelled, castrated, and dismembered.
    Robert Bruce captained and won the replay, however...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also my four week holiday begins in less than a fortnight.

    I didn't realise you had joined the civil service.
    Private sector, I have a generous holiday allowance, I rolled some over from last year, I've TOILed a few weeks when the shit hit the fan earlier on this year.
    God knows what hell you are exposing us all to to by going on holiday yet again.

    The first two weeks is mostly at home watching the knockout phases of the world cup.

    Last time Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested, the Greens won a by-election, and Trump & Bibi started their short war.
    Will Burnham be PM by the time you return from leave?
    No, because I expect Starmer to contest the leadership contest.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,556
    edited June 13
    SandyRentool said:

    bondegezou said:

    HYUFD said:

    45% for rejoin the EU almost exactly matches Burnham’s vote in Makerfield so no surprise. All the 38% for Stay Out likely voting Reform or Restore.

    Still less than half for Rejoin though and over 10% DK. As a poll last week showed if Rejoin required joining the Euro and Schengen then Stay Out would retake the lead

    A poll that lists arguments for one side of a debate only isn’t of much value. Also, it seems unlikely that, should the UK rejoin, that Schengen would be a requirement.
    We should be in Schengen regardless of EU membership.

    Being outside hardly achieves the objective of securing our borders.
    We should certainly not be in Schengen, either inside or outside the EU.

    I am a big advocate for freedom of movement. The Government (no Government here or in the EU) should be telling law abiding people who are no threat to the country where they can or cannot travel and how long they can stay. So unless people pose a threat to public safety or the country as a whole we should not be forbidding them from entering the country.

    But Schengen is about removing the ability to control who does and does not cross your borders. It is a direct risk to public and national safety. Why do you think that, after a terrorist attack, the first thing France, Belgium and Germany have done in the past is to suspend Schengen? Why is it that right now Schengen is suspended for Austria, Denmark, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Sweden, France, Switzerland and Norway? All cite criminal and terror threats.

    Schengen facilitates criminal activity and terrorism. Lets have freedom of movement but consign Schengen to the dustbin.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,005
    https://x.com/PeteHegseth/status/2065897156226015690

    Three months ago, @DeptofWar kicked @AnthropicAI out of our building—forever.

    Every passing day proves why that was the right move. 🇺🇸
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,300
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    ...which shows the Scottish side losing and its captain being disembowelled, castrated, and dismembered.
    Robert Bruce captained and won the replay, however...
    The Scot’s tend to remember the famous wins against the English. I do the same with wins over the French. The defeats, not so much.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    🚨EXC: Senior Burnham advisers are lobbying Shabana Mahmood to be his chancellor

    – Efforts accelerated in recent days amid concern about Ed Miliband entering No11

    – BUT Mahmood has told them them she still doesn't want it – she is determined to remain home secretary and see her immigration reforms through

    https://x.com/lara_spirit/status/2065904214598176997
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/lara_spirit/status/2065904867600674824

    EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham has *12-point* lead in new Makerfield poll

    Labour: 49
    Reform: 37
    Greens: 5
    Restore: 5
    Conservative: 3
    Lib Dem: 1
    Other: 1

    Poll conducted by @convergentrsrch – newly established by Dylan Spielman and Fintan Smith, who led Labour’s polling and data op in the 2024 general election

    Fieldwork 2-12 June / sample 525

    They are BPC registered.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,315
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    SandyRentool said:

    bondegezou said:

    HYUFD said:

    45% for rejoin the EU almost exactly matches Burnham’s vote in Makerfield so no surprise. All the 38% for Stay Out likely voting Reform or Restore.

    Still less than half for Rejoin though and over 10% DK. As a poll last week showed if Rejoin required joining the Euro and Schengen then Stay Out would retake the lead

    A poll that lists arguments for one side of a debate only isn’t of much value. Also, it seems unlikely that, should the UK rejoin, that Schengen would be a requirement.
    We should be in Schengen regardless of EU membership.

    Being outside hardly achieves the objective of securing our borders.
    We should certainly not be in Schengen, either inside or outside the EU.

    I am a big advocate for freedom of movement. The Government (no Government here or in the EU) should be telling law abiding people who are no threat to the country where they can or cannot travel and how long they can stay. So unless people pose a threat to public safety or the country as a whole we should not be forbidding them from entering the country.

    But Schengen is about removing the ability to control who does and does not cross your borders. It is a direct risk to public and national safety. Why do you think that, after a terrorist attack, the first thing France, Belgium and Germany have done in the past is to suspend Schengen? Why is it that right now Schengen is suspended for Austria, Denmark, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Sweden, France, Switzerland and Norway? All cite criminal and terror threats.

    Schengen facilitates criminal activity and terrorism. Lets have freedom of movement but consign Schengen to the dustbin.
    Schengen is a no-brainer (yes!) if you are in continental Europe and a no-brainer (no!) if you are on an archipeligo.

    Not sure about the first part. Partial-brainer, maybe.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,121
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/lara_spirit/status/2065904867600674824

    EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham has *12-point* lead in new Makerfield poll

    Labour: 49
    Reform: 37
    Greens: 5
    Restore: 5
    Conservative: 3
    Lib Dem: 1
    Other: 1

    Poll conducted by @convergentrsrch – newly established by Dylan Spielman and Fintan Smith, who led Labour’s polling and data op in the 2024 general election

    Fieldwork 2-12 June / sample 525

    Ooh, that's a corker.

    Would be amusing, after all the posturing, if RefUk + ResBrit don't get near Team Andy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,691
    Rubbish.

    The poll was 55:45 for Stay Out over Rejoin last week when it was pointed out this would be on standard EU terms.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/lara_spirit/status/2065904867600674824

    EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham has *12-point* lead in new Makerfield poll

    Labour: 49
    Reform: 37
    Greens: 5
    Restore: 5
    Conservative: 3
    Lib Dem: 1
    Other: 1

    Poll conducted by @convergentrsrch – newly established by Dylan Spielman and Fintan Smith, who led Labour’s polling and data op in the 2024 general election

    Fieldwork 2-12 June / sample 525

    Ooh, that's a corker.

    Would be amusing, after all the posturing, if RefUk + ResBrit don't get near Team Andy.
    Suspect that is a more accurate Restore figure than we have seen of late.

    Their likely support wont turn out on the actual day imho.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,691
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/lara_spirit/status/2065904867600674824

    EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham has *12-point* lead in new Makerfield poll

    Labour: 49
    Reform: 37
    Greens: 5
    Restore: 5
    Conservative: 3
    Lib Dem: 1
    Other: 1

    Poll conducted by @convergentrsrch – newly established by Dylan Spielman and Fintan Smith, who led Labour’s polling and data op in the 2024 general election

    Fieldwork 2-12 June / sample 525

    Ooh, that's a corker.

    Would be amusing, after all the posturing, if RefUk + ResBrit don't get near Team Andy.
    There's a good bet on Betfair of Labour getting above 43.5% of the vote at c.1.33, or at least it was earlier today.

    That's real value, I think.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,556
    carnforth said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    SandyRentool said:

    bondegezou said:

    HYUFD said:

    45% for rejoin the EU almost exactly matches Burnham’s vote in Makerfield so no surprise. All the 38% for Stay Out likely voting Reform or Restore.

    Still less than half for Rejoin though and over 10% DK. As a poll last week showed if Rejoin required joining the Euro and Schengen then Stay Out would retake the lead

    A poll that lists arguments for one side of a debate only isn’t of much value. Also, it seems unlikely that, should the UK rejoin, that Schengen would be a requirement.
    We should be in Schengen regardless of EU membership.

    Being outside hardly achieves the objective of securing our borders.
    We should certainly not be in Schengen, either inside or outside the EU.

    I am a big advocate for freedom of movement. The Government (no Government here or in the EU) should be telling law abiding people who are no threat to the country where they can or cannot travel and how long they can stay. So unless people pose a threat to public safety or the country as a whole we should not be forbidding them from entering the country.

    But Schengen is about removing the ability to control who does and does not cross your borders. It is a direct risk to public and national safety. Why do you think that, after a terrorist attack, the first thing France, Belgium and Germany have done in the past is to suspend Schengen? Why is it that right now Schengen is suspended for Austria, Denmark, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Sweden, France, Switzerland and Norway? All cite criminal and terror threats.

    Schengen facilitates criminal activity and terrorism. Lets have freedom of movement but consign Schengen to the dustbin.
    Schengen is a no-brainer (yes!) if you are in continental Europe and a no-brainer (no!) if you are on an archipeligo.

    Not sure about the first part. Partial-brainer, maybe.
    Clearly it isn't a no brainer for many Governments inside the EU.

    France for example reintroduced border checks in 2015 and has never lifted them. They reapply to the EU every 6 months for an extension and it is always granted. Effectively France has been outside Schengen for the last 11 years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    Not many The Wizard of Oz fans on here I see.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,382
    turbotubbs said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    ...which shows the Scottish side losing and its captain being disembowelled, castrated, and dismembered.
    Robert Bruce captained and won the replay, however...
    The Scot’s tend to remember the famous wins against the English. I do the same with wins over the French. The defeats, not so much.
    Which would be the biggest English/British military defeats on land and at sea?

    I think the Dutch won a few large naval battles against the English. Singapore seems like an obvious one. The Battle of Hastings, obvs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    🚨EXC: Senior Burnham advisers are lobbying Shabana Mahmood to be his chancellor

    – Efforts accelerated in recent days amid concern about Ed Miliband entering No11

    – BUT Mahmood has told them them she still doesn't want it – she is determined to remain home secretary and see her immigration reforms through

    https://x.com/lara_spirit/status/2065904214598176997

    She's now 1.04 on BF
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,315
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    carnforth said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    SandyRentool said:

    bondegezou said:

    HYUFD said:

    45% for rejoin the EU almost exactly matches Burnham’s vote in Makerfield so no surprise. All the 38% for Stay Out likely voting Reform or Restore.

    Still less than half for Rejoin though and over 10% DK. As a poll last week showed if Rejoin required joining the Euro and Schengen then Stay Out would retake the lead

    A poll that lists arguments for one side of a debate only isn’t of much value. Also, it seems unlikely that, should the UK rejoin, that Schengen would be a requirement.
    We should be in Schengen regardless of EU membership.

    Being outside hardly achieves the objective of securing our borders.
    We should certainly not be in Schengen, either inside or outside the EU.

    I am a big advocate for freedom of movement. The Government (no Government here or in the EU) should be telling law abiding people who are no threat to the country where they can or cannot travel and how long they can stay. So unless people pose a threat to public safety or the country as a whole we should not be forbidding them from entering the country.

    But Schengen is about removing the ability to control who does and does not cross your borders. It is a direct risk to public and national safety. Why do you think that, after a terrorist attack, the first thing France, Belgium and Germany have done in the past is to suspend Schengen? Why is it that right now Schengen is suspended for Austria, Denmark, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Sweden, France, Switzerland and Norway? All cite criminal and terror threats.

    Schengen facilitates criminal activity and terrorism. Lets have freedom of movement but consign Schengen to the dustbin.
    Schengen is a no-brainer (yes!) if you are in continental Europe and a no-brainer (no!) if you are on an archipeligo.

    Not sure about the first part. Partial-brainer, maybe.
    Clearly it isn't a no brainer for many Governments inside the EU.

    France for example reintroduced border checks in 2015 and has never lifted them. They reapply to the EU every 6 months for an extension and it is always granted. Effectively France has been outside Schengen for the last 11 years.
    Oh come now. They may have occasional checks on major roads but no-one's stopping the average motorist or an illegal immigrant or a gun-runner walking across fields. Not really "effectively outside Schengen".

    If I fly to Basel and hire a car, will I be routinely stopped entering France?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,920
    LostPassword said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    ...which shows the Scottish side losing and its captain being disembowelled, castrated, and dismembered.
    Robert Bruce captained and won the replay, however...
    The Scot’s tend to remember the famous wins against the English. I do the same with wins over the French. The defeats, not so much.
    Which would be the biggest English/British military defeats on land and at sea?

    I think the Dutch won a few large naval battles against the English. Singapore seems like an obvious one. The Battle of Hastings, obvs.
    Yorktown, Pollilur.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,385
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    The most historically inaccurate film ever made.
    There must be a bunch where America won WW2 without any help from their Allies?

    One about U-boats and Enigma rings a bell....
    All parodied to mostly good effect in Churchill the Hollywood Years.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,920
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Not many The Wizard of Oz fans on here I see.

    You have no heart!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    Deadpan as usual from NY Times:


    The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, spoke by telephone with President Trump on Saturday about the war with Iran, his office said. Starmer, who is facing political problems at home, welcomed the progress made toward a deal

    NY Times blog


    "facing political problems"? He's going to be out on his arse by the end of the month.

  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,315
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also my four week holiday begins in less than a fortnight.

    I didn't realise you had joined the civil service.
    Private sector, I have a generous holiday allowance, I rolled some over from last year, I've TOILed a few weeks when the shit hit the fan earlier on this year.
    God knows what hell you are exposing us all to to by going on holiday yet again.

    The first two weeks is mostly at home watching the knockout phases of the world cup.

    Last time Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested, the Greens won a by-election, and Trump & Bibi started their short war.
    Will Burnham be PM by the time you return from leave?
    No, because I expect Starmer to contest the leadership contest.
    If Burnham wins next Thursday and declares he's seeking a Leadership Election and Streeting also declares he's seeking nominations, I think it would take at least 10 Ministerial :resignations (cabinet level) to dissuade Starnmner not to Stand
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,557
    @christinalamb

    Is Scotland going to be first European team to win a match in #WorldCup2026 ?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,300
    LostPassword said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    ...which shows the Scottish side losing and its captain being disembowelled, castrated, and dismembered.
    Robert Bruce captained and won the replay, however...
    The Scot’s tend to remember the famous wins against the English. I do the same with wins over the French. The defeats, not so much.
    Which would be the biggest English/British military defeats on land and at sea?

    I think the Dutch won a few large naval battles against the English. Singapore seems like an obvious one. The Battle of Hastings, obvs.
    The armada we sent to Spain after their one was defeated did not end well. Singapore, for shame. Bannockburn. Most of the latter Hundred Years’ War.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,300
    Scott_xP said:

    @christinalamb

    Is Scotland going to be first European team to win a match in #WorldCup2026 ?

    Or Haiti?
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,385
    LostPassword said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    ...which shows the Scottish side losing and its captain being disembowelled, castrated, and dismembered.
    Robert Bruce captained and won the replay, however...
    The Scot’s tend to remember the famous wins against the English. I do the same with wins over the French. The defeats, not so much.
    Which would be the biggest English/British military defeats on land and at sea?

    I think the Dutch won a few large naval battles against the English. Singapore seems like an obvious one. The Battle of Hastings, obvs.
    Gallipoli
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,300
    Stereodog said:

    LostPassword said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    ...which shows the Scottish side losing and its captain being disembowelled, castrated, and dismembered.
    Robert Bruce captained and won the replay, however...
    The Scot’s tend to remember the famous wins against the English. I do the same with wins over the French. The defeats, not so much.
    Which would be the biggest English/British military defeats on land and at sea?

    I think the Dutch won a few large naval battles against the English. Singapore seems like an obvious one. The Battle of Hastings, obvs.
    Gallipoli
    More stalemate than defeat, arguably.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,095
    I see that Rubio is now the favourite to be the Republican candidate for the Presidency in 2028.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,542
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Not many The Wizard of Oz fans on here I see.

    I've never managed to watch it all the way to the end. The tedium always proved too much.

    I have no idea whether they get to see the Wizard or not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,949
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Not many The Wizard of Oz fans on here I see.

    We are not all friends of Dorothy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    Barnesian said:

    I see that Rubio is now the favourite to be the Republican candidate for the Presidency in 2028.

    Is this since there were rumours Vance would be made to sign the shit sandwich Iran "peace" deal instead of Trumpski?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,073
    Barnesian said:

    I see that Rubio is now the favourite to be the Republican candidate for the Presidency in 2028.

    It will be a Trump.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    turbotubbs said:

    Stereodog said:

    LostPassword said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    STV are showing Braveheart before the match...

    ...which shows the Scottish side losing and its captain being disembowelled, castrated, and dismembered.
    Robert Bruce captained and won the replay, however...
    The Scot’s tend to remember the famous wins against the English. I do the same with wins over the French. The defeats, not so much.
    Which would be the biggest English/British military defeats on land and at sea?

    I think the Dutch won a few large naval battles against the English. Singapore seems like an obvious one. The Battle of Hastings, obvs.
    Gallipoli
    More stalemate than defeat, arguably.
    1842 retreat from Kabul
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,877
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Not many The Wizard of Oz fans on here I see.

    I hear Toto, I think Wolff
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,755
    solarflare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Not many The Wizard of Oz fans on here I see.

    I hear Toto, I think Wolff
    Same.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,315
    edited June 13
    Lib Dem Surge!



    Ok, no, it's the right wing party in Australia:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,095
    rottenborough said:

    Barnesian said:

    I see that Rubio is now the favourite to be the Republican candidate for the Presidency in 2028.

    Is this since there were rumours Vance would be made to sign the shit sandwich Iran "peace" deal instead of Trumpski?
    I think it is going to be an electronic signing now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,949
    edited June 13
    LostPassword said:

    This swing seems much larger than for the country as a whole. Two obvious possibilities.

    1. Population change in the constituency has brought in more Remain voters.
    2. The polling result is a sign that the sample has picked up more Remain voters than it should have (due to false recall, perhaps) and so the polling is wrong, which also implies that Reform have a much better chance of winning the by-election than the opinion poll would suggest.

    If Bregret is quite common amongst Leave voters, so they have false recall, it doesn't follow that they are now Reformites. More likely they have shifted Lab/LD/Green.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    On the topic:



    Antonello Guerrera
    @antoguerrera
    FULL INTERVIEW - Nigel Farage: Brexit was the greatest day of my life, but now it annoys me

    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/2065901475000414529
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,095
    noneoftheabove said:

    Barnesian said:

    I see that Rubio is now the favourite to be the Republican candidate for the Presidency in 2028.

    It will be a Trump.
    Of the Trumps, Donald is the favourite (20) followed by Ivanka (38) then Eric (70).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,555
    Barnesian said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Barnesian said:

    I see that Rubio is now the favourite to be the Republican candidate for the Presidency in 2028.

    It will be a Trump.
    Of the Trumps, Donald is the favourite (20) followed by Ivanka (38) then Eric (70).
    Which Donald?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,315
    Foxy said:

    LostPassword said:

    This swing seems much larger than for the country as a whole. Two obvious possibilities.

    1. Population change in the constituency has brought in more Remain voters.
    2. The polling result is a sign that the sample has picked up more Remain voters than it should have (due to false recall, perhaps) and so the polling is wrong, which also implies that Reform have a much better chance of winning the by-election than the opinion poll would suggest.

    If Bregret is quite common amongst Leave voters, so they have false recall, it doesn't follow that they are now Reformites. More likely they have shifted Lab/LD/Green.
    A fifth of Reform voters want a second referendum:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-uk-second-referendum-b2993826.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,555
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FF43 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FF43 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    LostPassword said:

    Barnesian said:

    LostPassword said:

    Barnesian said:

    LostPassword said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think the "bond market" is used as a bogeyman.

    Truss really upset the bond markets by her cavalier cutting of taxes with a complete rejection of the OBR or any expert opinion of the consequences. But that was very extreme.

    If I were Starmer I would get Bowler, Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, and Rachel Reeves in a room and say to Bowler "We are going to provide an extra £20b for defence by borrowing it, a War Bond if you like. I want you to find the best way of doing and presenting this. I don't want any objections. Just do it. If you feel you can't, then I'm happy to accept your resignation."
    And then to Rachel "Rachel I need your support on this. If not, then I'm happy to accept your resignation too."

    The bond markets will accept higher borrowing during war, because the survival of the state is at risk, and if the state does not survive then none of the existing government debt gets repaid.

    I don't think you can work that argument absent total war like WWI and WWII, simply by calling the extra debt war bonds.

    Remember that the bond market has been very lenient in allowing Britain to borrow vast sums of money already to spend on whatever it likes. But it's done so because there's always be a plan to stop borrowing within x years, and so there's been confidence that the money can be repaid.

    If your government finance plan involves borrowing so much that you can't even create a theoretical explanation of how you would close the deficit in five years then you shouldn't expect anyone to willingly lend you money, because they would have no confidence in being repaid.
    That's not how it works.
    There's never a plan to stop borrowing or repay all the debt. Any specific debt will repaid when it falls due by rolling it over and borrowing more. That is how businesses finance themselves.
    The UK public debt is about equal to the UK's annual income (GDP). Households often have mortgages much in excess of 100% of their annual income.
    It is what all the various fiscal rules have been about, and why British budget plans continue to include fictional increases in fuel duty in future years, so that the budget deficit can be shown to be reduced at the end of the budget plan.

    I think your are missing deficit and debt. I did not claim that there's a plan for Britain to repay the debt, but there is a plan to close the deficit - and that's what creates the confidence to allow Britain to continue borrowing.
    You said "But it's done so because there's always be a plan to stop borrowing within x years, and so there's been confidence that the money can be repaid."

    I'm not confusing deficit and debt. It looks as if you are.

    The current fiscal rules are that day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenues rather than by borrowing, but the government can borrow to fund long-term capital investments.
    Some defence expenditure will be capital investment.
    I was using "repaid" in an informal sense - i.e. that the country is good for the money. But if the government lose the confidence of the bond market then they won't be able to roll over debt, and so existing debt won't be able to be repaid when it falls due. So it's relevant without it being a scenario where the total amount of debt is reduced.

    The point being that we can only borrow if there is credibility over the country's solvency, and that means demonstrating that there are limits on our borrowing.

    Truss showed how brittle that credibility was. Simply adding increases in defence spending to already high levels of borrowing isn't credible in my view.
    I don't know why we're still using the Truss episode as the nadir of bond market instability when things now (afaik) are far worse. It is Reeves and Starmer who get the gold medal.
    I lost a quarter of the value of one of my pensions, on supposedly low risk investments, thanks to Liz Truss.

    I don't feel warm and fuzzy towards her.
    Nobody is asking you to feel warm and fuzzy.
    , just to stay vaguely in touch with the facts.
    The facts are that Liz Truss willfully did a stupid thing, which had bad consequences. Why should anyone afford her the benefit of the tiniest doubt? She deserves every bit of blame in her direction, and to the extent she involved the Conservative Party in her shenanigans, so do they.
    Dear Lord in heaven above, sorry to shout, but BOND YIELDS ARE HIGHER NOW THAN THEY WERE DURING THE WORST OF THE LDI/MINIBUDGET CRISIS.

    I am really struggling to see what part of this you don't understand. There is a higher premium for lending to Starmer and Reeves than there was for lending to Truss and Kwarteng. And that's without an energy price shock, or the Bank of England deciding to flog off £80bn bonds.

    I don't particularly wish to relitigate the minibudget - by all means think as you wish, I am merely saying that the borrowing position is worse now.
    Isn't is more intellectually honest than to compare the premium (or discount!) that investors demand for holding UK assets relative to peers?
    No. If anything, the fact that other countries are looking iffier than before would have a beneficial impact on British bond yields if we looked credible, because it would drive people toward lending here as a safe haven.

    We are doing worse than Truss because we are doing worse. The bond markets are 'not ideological' as people here are so fond of solemnly opining (though not so much recently oddly).
    Bond markets tend to move in lockstep, because factors like commodity prices impact inflation for all countries.

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