Burnham failed in previous attempts but he is well regarded locally and I get why many in the party are desperate to try something 'new' rather than an existing Cabinet Member (or Rayner), but they are probably putting hopes before reality, and requiring a convoluted process to get in doesn't help - he cannot even be a candidate until he gets back to Westminster(?), and if Keir is going to go why would he wait until Burnham, who has been gunning for for ages, is ready?
As the header notes winning a by-election may not be easy, even if Burnham might get a boost over a generic Labour candidate.
The main reason is that while Streeting will alienate the left and Rayner will alienate the right, Burnham offers the chance of being a unity candidate, and the wiser Labour MPs, having lived through the Corbyn era, knows that another slow-burning civil war is the last thing Labour needs.
Is anyone able to give an account of the principal differences in actual policy and practice between the 'left' and the 'right', along with an account of how Burnham's policies and practices will unify them and what they will be and why it is that the differences will suddenly cease to matter and why in all other circumstances it matters enough to have civil war?
Unless this can be done I think this is in fact about friendships, deals, blocs, personalities, power, ambition and rhetoric.
Here is my stab as an outsider to the Labour party:
In opposition you have centre left and left wings. If the left are in charge, they lose so they are never in power.
If the centre left are in charge they sometimes win. The ones who get the responsibility of cabinet and are constrained by annoying things like budgets and practicalities now move from the centre left to become the right and become unpopular. They don't really have any different worldview from the centre left figures outside of government, who become more and more popular with the party over time.
Burnham failed in previous attempts but he is well regarded locally and I get why many in the party are desperate to try something 'new' rather than an existing Cabinet Member (or Rayner), but they are probably putting hopes before reality, and requiring a convoluted process to get in doesn't help - he cannot even be a candidate until he gets back to Westminster(?), and if Keir is going to go why would he wait until Burnham, who has been gunning for for ages, is ready?
As the header notes winning a by-election may not be easy, even if Burnham might get a boost over a generic Labour candidate.
The main reason is that while Streeting will alienate the left and Rayner will alienate the right, Burnham offers the chance of being a unity candidate, and the wiser Labour MPs, having lived through the Corbyn era, knows that another slow-burning civil war is the last thing Labour needs.
Is anyone able to give an account of the principal differences in actual policy and practice between the 'left' and the 'right', along with an account of how Burnham's policies and practices will unify them and what they will be and why it is that the differences will suddenly cease to matter and why in all other circumstances it matters enough to have civil war?
Unless this can be done I think this is in fact about friendships, deals, blocs, personalities, power, ambition and rhetoric.
Indeed, left and right in this context (even more than the usual context) are just convenient labels not decriptors.
A bit like how before we had political parties you can talk of broad political interests which lack entirely inclusive definition, internal factions seem to be about vibes and personality, not anything truly ideological or about overall vision.
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Burnham failed in previous attempts but he is well regarded locally and I get why many in the party are desperate to try something 'new' rather than an existing Cabinet Member (or Rayner), but they are probably putting hopes before reality, and requiring a convoluted process to get in doesn't help - he cannot even be a candidate until he gets back to Westminster(?), and if Keir is going to go why would he wait until Burnham, who has been gunning for for ages, is ready?
As the header notes winning a by-election may not be easy, even if Burnham might get a boost over a generic Labour candidate.
The main reason is that while Streeting will alienate the left and Rayner will alienate the right, Burnham offers the chance of being a unity candidate, and the wiser Labour MPs, having lived through the Corbyn era, knows that another slow-burning civil war is the last thing Labour needs.
Is anyone able to give an account of the principal differences in actual policy and practice between the 'left' and the 'right', along with an account of how Burnham's policies and practices will unify them and what they will be and why it is that the differences will suddenly cease to matter and why in all other circumstances it matters enough to have civil war?
Unless this can be done I think this is in fact about friendships, deals, blocs, personalities, power, ambition and rhetoric.
Here is my stab as an outsider to the Labour party:
In opposition you have centre left and left wings. If the left are in charge, they lose so they are never in power.
If the centre left are in charge they sometimes win. The ones who get the responsibility of cabinet and are constrained by annoying things like budgets and practicalities now move from the centre left to become the right and become unpopular. They don't really have any different worldview from the centre left figures outside of government, who become more and more popular with the party over time.
Thank you. This interesting thought relies on the idea that large groups of people hold beliefs about politics that are beyond any possibility of rational implementation. It explains quite a lot, but isn't a happy thought.
I'm sitting in the Glyn Ceiriog hotel with a pint and dinner on the way.*
A bit like TSE, no time to follow the news. So when did WWIII break out?
*This is quite poignant for me in a number of ways. My father lived in Oswestry and was the vet for the Ceiriog and Dee valleys before moving to Gloucestershire, so he frequently brought us here for short holidays. Normally we would stay at the West Arms in Llanarmon Dyffryn Ceiriog, but I couldn't quite make the numbers work on a stay there. This one, where I got a largeish discount, works better.
So I will be waking to the sound of the Afon Ceiriog and the hills above Llangollen as I often did in my childhood - but I'll be on my own this time.
Hoping to get some cycling in if the weather's not too terrible, and some hill walking if it is.
Saw a snippet of a story yesterday, presumably AI generated, since it was about someone who was involved in World War Eleven.
I got a good early start this morning, headed for Royan sixteen miles away. I managed to get there by 2pm, twenty minutes before the next ferry across the Gironde
On the way to Royan, I walked through a little town called L’Éguille. Almost everything there was oysters; farms, shops and restaurants. I really wanted oysters, but it was ten thirty in the morning
Since the ferry crossing, Ive walked another six miles to Soulac-sur-Mer. It’s a lovely little town; it has a Basilica that was buried by sand for more than a century
For some reason I couldn’t resist oysters for my starter, and I had a really good scallop dish for my main course
I'm sitting in the Glyn Ceiriog hotel with a pint and dinner on the way.*
A bit like TSE, no time to follow the news. So when did WWIII break out?
*This is quite poignant for me in a number of ways. My father lived in Oswestry and was the vet for the Ceiriog and Dee valleys before moving to Gloucestershire, so he frequently brought us here for short holidays. Normally we would stay at the West Arms in Llanarmon Dyffryn Ceiriog, but I couldn't quite make the numbers work on a stay there. This one, where I got a largeish discount, works better.
So I will be waking to the sound of the Afon Ceiriog and the hills above Llangollen as I often did in my childhood - but I'll be on my own this time.
Hoping to get some cycling in if the weather's not too terrible, and some hill walking if it is.
Saw a snippet of a story yesterday, presumably AI generated, since it was about someone who was involved in World War Eleven.
Either that or a time traveller from the most dystopian future imaginable.
Certainly Burnham cannot stand as a Labour candidate for parliament unless his supporters gain control of the NEC and allow him to be on the approved parliamentary candidate list. So all this is hypothetical until then
You know that. I know that. Everyone knows that...
... but Andy Brunham really really wants to be Prime Minister.
Wes Streeting has the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge within days, The Telegraph has learnt.
The Health Secretary has recruited more than 81 MPs – the minimum required to trigger a challenge – and is now contemplating his next move.
Sir Keir Starmer was alerted to Mr Streeting’s intentions when a Downing Street staff member was accidentally texted details of his plans, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, meaning plan for government.
Wes Streeting has the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge within days, The Telegraph has learnt.
The Health Secretary has recruited more than 81 MPs – the minimum required to trigger a challenge – and is now contemplating his next move.
Sir Keir Starmer was alerted to Mr Streeting’s intentions when a Downing Street staff member was accidentally texted details of his plans, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, meaning plan for government.
Wes Streeting has the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge within days, The Telegraph has learnt.
The Health Secretary has recruited more than 81 MPs – the minimum required to trigger a challenge – and is now contemplating his next move.
Sir Keir Starmer was alerted to Mr Streeting’s intentions when a Downing Street staff member was accidentally texted details of his plans, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, meaning plan for government.
Stop the presses...something crossed Starmer's desk.
I'm sure that Streeting wants to become PM has come as a complete surprise to Starmer, and that briefing against Streeting such as reported last Autumn absolutely did not come from anyone the PM knew.
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Not necessarily, remember most council seats up in England this year are in urban areas and city councils including London where Labour will be stronger. Whereas most of the shires and market and seaside towns and rural England where Reform and the Tories will be stronger and Labour weakest voted in their county council elections last year and have their district and unitary council elections next year
I've looked at the predictions for some of the London Boroughs including Newham and I can't recognise how they have arrived at their conclusions.
For Newham, to suggest Labour will win 60 seats, the Greens 4 and the NIP just 2 in no way represents what is happening on the ground.
Wes Streeting has the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge within days, The Telegraph has learnt.
The Health Secretary has recruited more than 81 MPs – the minimum required to trigger a challenge – and is now contemplating his next move.
Sir Keir Starmer was alerted to Mr Streeting’s intentions when a Downing Street staff member was accidentally texted details of his plans, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, meaning plan for government.
“Streeting ready to launch leadership challenge against Starmer
Health Secretary has recruited enough MPs to trigger a contest, with supporters calling for him to strike after local elections next week”
This sounds like it’s really happening. Finally?
Too early to start the gun on any contest until the results are in, if Labour end up second on seats next week as some forecasts now suggest Starmer won't be going anywhere
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Not necessarily, remember most council seats up in England this year are in urban areas and city councils including London where Labour will be stronger. Whereas most of the shires and market and seaside towns and rural England where Reform and the Tories will be stronger and Labour weakest voted in their county council elections last year and have their district and unitary council elections next year
I've looked at the predictions for some of the London Boroughs including Newham and I can't recognise how they have arrived at their conclusions.
For Newham, to suggest Labour will win 60 seats, the Greens 4 and the NIP just 2 in no way represents what is happening on the ground.
That would be a relatively 'normal' Newham election, which even not being on the ground sounds improbable in the current national climate.
Wes Streeting has the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge within days, The Telegraph has learnt.
The Health Secretary has recruited more than 81 MPs – the minimum required to trigger a challenge – and is now contemplating his next move.
Sir Keir Starmer was alerted to Mr Streeting’s intentions when a Downing Street staff member was accidentally texted details of his plans, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, meaning plan for government.
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Not necessarily, remember most council seats up in England this year are in urban areas and city councils including London where Labour will be stronger. Whereas most of the shires and market and seaside towns and rural England where Reform and the Tories will be stronger and Labour weakest voted in their county council elections last year and have their district and unitary council elections next year
I've looked at the predictions for some of the London Boroughs including Newham and I can't recognise how they have arrived at their conclusions.
For Newham, to suggest Labour will win 60 seats, the Greens 4 and the NIP just 2 in no way represents what is happening on the ground.
Not just them, Pollcheck also projects Reform first with 1421 seats, Labour second on 1110, ahead of the LDs on 824, the Tories on 707 and Greens on 689 and that is with them forecasting just 32 Labour seats in Newham https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026
Wes Streeting has the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge within days, The Telegraph has learnt.
The Health Secretary has recruited more than 81 MPs – the minimum required to trigger a challenge – and is now contemplating his next move.
Sir Keir Starmer was alerted to Mr Streeting’s intentions when a Downing Street staff member was accidentally texted details of his plans, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, meaning plan for government.
Wes Streeting has the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge within days, The Telegraph has learnt.
The Health Secretary has recruited more than 81 MPs – the minimum required to trigger a challenge – and is now contemplating his next move.
Sir Keir Starmer was alerted to Mr Streeting’s intentions when a Downing Street staff member was accidentally texted details of his plans, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, meaning plan for government.
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Not necessarily, remember most council seats up in England this year are in urban areas and city councils including London where Labour will be stronger. Whereas most of the shires and market and seaside towns and rural England where Reform and the Tories will be stronger and Labour weakest voted in their county council elections last year and have their district and unitary council elections next year
I've looked at the predictions for some of the London Boroughs including Newham and I can't recognise how they have arrived at their conclusions.
For Newham, to suggest Labour will win 60 seats, the Greens 4 and the NIP just 2 in no way represents what is happening on the ground.
Not just them, Pollcheck also projects Reform first with 1421 seats, Labour second on 1110, ahead of the LDs on 824, the Tories on 707 and Greens on 689 and that is with them forecasting just 32 Labour seats in Newham https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026
I reckon Green will do better than that, but it is worth nothing they are still coming from almost nowhere in a lot of places. Whilst it is easier to win at local elections, which have lower turnout, and they surely are going to sweep some councils, it is still a big ask.
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Not necessarily, remember most council seats up in England this year are in urban areas and city councils including London where Labour will be stronger. Whereas most of the shires and market and seaside towns and rural England where Reform and the Tories will be stronger and Labour weakest voted in their county council elections last year and have their district and unitary council elections next year
I've looked at the predictions for some of the London Boroughs including Newham and I can't recognise how they have arrived at their conclusions.
For Newham, to suggest Labour will win 60 seats, the Greens 4 and the NIP just 2 in no way represents what is happening on the ground.
Not just them, Pollcheck also projects Reform first with 1421 seats, Labour second on 1110, ahead of the LDs on 824, the Tories on 707 and Greens on 689 and that is with them forecasting just 32 Labour seats in Newham https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026
Doesn't make them right, either.
Pollcheck has Labour losing control of Newham losing half their seats (32). The Greens win 17 and the NIP also win 17.
That's not going to happen - the Greens will win seven seats at most in Newham.
Once again, we have projections based on all sorts of statistical gimmickry ignoring the reality of what is actually happening.
This time next week, we'll be in a position to test Britain Elects and Pollcheck and all the others against reality.
Interesting that Boris Johnson is now saying we should embrace a decline in the population level and not listen to scaremongering politicians who say that we need to import workers to "do the jobs".
Jesus Christ the state of Bluesky. Screeds of earnest worthy humourless snide pathetic woke virtue signalling drivel. What an awful place it is, full of awful people
What are the odds that Sir Keir makes it to the next GE, then the seats fall in a way that Rupert Lowe becomes PM? Because someone on Betfair wants £600@42 he’s next Prime Minister. I just can’t see it being a 2% chance, not even 0.5% really
"My plan is that in the wake of a historically awful local election result for Labour, I will trigger a vanity by-election and give the electorate another chance to give us a kicking."
Less of a cunning plan, more of a Plan 9 From Outer Space.
Currently showing on BFI player in their "trash cinema" section. It really is a sensationally bad film, a sort of triumph of cinema akin to naive art, with no concessions to film convention such as script, plot, continuity or acting.
I think even the knuckleheaded cops that foiled Plan 9 could cope with Burnham.
They screwed the 'Plan 9' copyright renewal up so there are legal copies all over YouTube and Archive.org.
'Night of the Living Dead' is available on similar terms.
If you're after films of that rough era - "Carnival of Souls" is a bit of a hidden gem. Really quite peculiar for the time. Copies on YT and archive.org - not entirely sure if they are legit but archive.org says 'Public Domain' so... that's on them.
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Not necessarily, remember most council seats up in England this year are in urban areas and city councils including London where Labour will be stronger. Whereas most of the shires and market and seaside towns and rural England where Reform and the Tories will be stronger and Labour weakest voted in their county council elections last year and have their district and unitary council elections next year
I've looked at the predictions for some of the London Boroughs including Newham and I can't recognise how they have arrived at their conclusions.
For Newham, to suggest Labour will win 60 seats, the Greens 4 and the NIP just 2 in no way represents what is happening on the ground.
Not just them, Pollcheck also projects Reform first with 1421 seats, Labour second on 1110, ahead of the LDs on 824, the Tories on 707 and Greens on 689 and that is with them forecasting just 32 Labour seats in Newham https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026
Doesn't make them right, either.
Pollcheck has Labour losing control of Newham losing half their seats (32). The Greens win 17 and the NIP also win 17.
That's not going to happen - the Greens will win seven seats at most in Newham.
Once again, we have projections based on all sorts of statistical gimmickry ignoring the reality of what is actually happening.
This time next week, we'll be in a position to test Britain Elects and Pollcheck and all the others against reality.
In a post on X, Birmigham Police said: "We are carrying out an evacuation at the Utilita Arena in Birmingham after a potential suspicious bag was found. A 19-year-old man is in custody and as a precaution the site is currently subject of a search. We will provide further updates when we can."
A bigger shock, Peter Kay still flogging that tour. Hasn't he been doing it for 3-4 years now?
Interesting that Boris Johnson is now saying we should embrace a decline in the population level and not listen to scaremongering politicians who say that we need to import workers to "do the jobs".
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Not necessarily, remember most council seats up in England this year are in urban areas and city councils including London where Labour will be stronger. Whereas most of the shires and market and seaside towns and rural England where Reform and the Tories will be stronger and Labour weakest voted in their county council elections last year and have their district and unitary council elections next year
I've looked at the predictions for some of the London Boroughs including Newham and I can't recognise how they have arrived at their conclusions.
For Newham, to suggest Labour will win 60 seats, the Greens 4 and the NIP just 2 in no way represents what is happening on the ground.
Not just them, Pollcheck also projects Reform first with 1421 seats, Labour second on 1110, ahead of the LDs on 824, the Tories on 707 and Greens on 689 and that is with them forecasting just 32 Labour seats in Newham https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026
Doesn't make them right, either.
Pollcheck has Labour losing control of Newham losing half their seats (32). The Greens win 17 and the NIP also win 17.
That's not going to happen - the Greens will win seven seats at most in Newham.
Once again, we have projections based on all sorts of statistical gimmickry ignoring the reality of what is actually happening.
This time next week, we'll be in a position to test Britain Elects and Pollcheck and all the others against reality.
We will, Hayward predicts Labour will be fifth, in which case Starmer is gone but if Britain Elects and Pollcheck are correct Starmer will live to fight another day
Jesus Christ the state of Bluesky. Screeds of earnest worthy humourless snide pathetic woke virtue signalling drivel. What an awful place it is, full of awful people
Wes Streeting has just messaged all Labour MPs after reports his leadership plans were leaked to No 10
“There is currently an industry in fishing expeditions by lobby journalists at the moment. Don’t feed it. It undermines all of us fighting elections locally”
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
Wes Streeting has just messaged all Labour MPs after reports his leadership plans were leaked to No 10
“There is currently an industry in fishing expeditions by lobby journalists at the moment. Don’t feed it. It undermines all of us fighting elections locally”
Wes Streeting has just messaged all Labour MPs after reports his leadership plans were leaked to No 10
“There is currently an industry in fishing expeditions by lobby journalists at the moment. Don’t feed it. It undermines all of us fighting elections locally”
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Not necessarily, remember most council seats up in England this year are in urban areas and city councils including London where Labour will be stronger. Whereas most of the shires and market and seaside towns and rural England where Reform and the Tories will be stronger and Labour weakest voted in their county council elections last year and have their district and unitary council elections next year
I've looked at the predictions for some of the London Boroughs including Newham and I can't recognise how they have arrived at their conclusions.
For Newham, to suggest Labour will win 60 seats, the Greens 4 and the NIP just 2 in no way represents what is happening on the ground.
Not just them, Pollcheck also projects Reform first with 1421 seats, Labour second on 1110, ahead of the LDs on 824, the Tories on 707 and Greens on 689 and that is with them forecasting just 32 Labour seats in Newham https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026
Doesn't make them right, either.
Pollcheck has Labour losing control of Newham losing half their seats (32). The Greens win 17 and the NIP also win 17.
That's not going to happen - the Greens will win seven seats at most in Newham.
Once again, we have projections based on all sorts of statistical gimmickry ignoring the reality of what is actually happening.
This time next week, we'll be in a position to test Britain Elects and Pollcheck and all the others against reality.
We will, Hayward predicts Labour will be fifth, in which case Starmer is gone but if Britain Elects and Pollcheck are correct Starmer will live to fight another day
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
In a post on X, Birmigham Police said: "We are carrying out an evacuation at the Utilita Arena in Birmingham after a potential suspicious bag was found. A 19-year-old man is in custody and as a precaution the site is currently subject of a search. We will provide further updates when we can."
A bigger shock, Peter Kay still flogging that tour. Hasn't he been doing it for 3-4 years now?
People keep going. Same misheard lyrics (probably).
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
Since he's actually been a mayor maybe he would actually believe in extensive devolution, but I expect we'd get another 'pots of funding for regions to bid for' type situation.
He wouldn't touch council tax revaluation - too much hassle.
National Care Service - been hearing that one since 2017, we shall see.
Not sure why an elected upper chamber makes it into the list of promises to try to excite people, it's not populist stuff, but whatever
No welfare reforms - of course, not we can have terrible growth and increasing demand but continue to assign what we do and more forever.
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Not necessarily, remember most council seats up in England this year are in urban areas and city councils including London where Labour will be stronger. Whereas most of the shires and market and seaside towns and rural England where Reform and the Tories will be stronger and Labour weakest voted in their county council elections last year and have their district and unitary council elections next year
I've looked at the predictions for some of the London Boroughs including Newham and I can't recognise how they have arrived at their conclusions.
For Newham, to suggest Labour will win 60 seats, the Greens 4 and the NIP just 2 in no way represents what is happening on the ground.
Not just them, Pollcheck also projects Reform first with 1421 seats, Labour second on 1110, ahead of the LDs on 824, the Tories on 707 and Greens on 689 and that is with them forecasting just 32 Labour seats in Newham https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026
Doesn't make them right, either.
Pollcheck has Labour losing control of Newham losing half their seats (32). The Greens win 17 and the NIP also win 17.
That's not going to happen - the Greens will win seven seats at most in Newham.
Once again, we have projections based on all sorts of statistical gimmickry ignoring the reality of what is actually happening.
This time next week, we'll be in a position to test Britain Elects and Pollcheck and all the others against reality.
We will, Hayward predicts Labour will be fifth, in which case Starmer is gone but if Britain Elects and Pollcheck are correct Starmer will live to fight another day
In a post on X, Birmigham Police said: "We are carrying out an evacuation at the Utilita Arena in Birmingham after a potential suspicious bag was found. A 19-year-old man is in custody and as a precaution the site is currently subject of a search. We will provide further updates when we can."
A bigger shock, Peter Kay still flogging that tour. Hasn't he been doing it for 3-4 years now?
People keep going. Same misheard lyrics (probably).
People must be on their 3-4th going around by now.
I like Peter Kay, Phoenix Night is great, but his stand-up is just fine, its very middle of the road and full of 'member berries, so I can see why lots of people have gone. But I can't imagine wanting to go multiple times.
What are the odds that Sir Keir makes it to the next GE, then the seats fall in a way that Rupert Lowe becomes PM? Because someone on Betfair wants £600@42 he’s next Prime Minister. I just can’t see it being a 2% chance, not even 0.5% really
Isn't there a chace of a flesh eating bacteria killing 69 million people in the UK?
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
I don't even know what 'scrap the whipping system' would even mean. You'd just have unofficial whipping and no one is stupid enough to believe otherwise.
It's like when people have committee leadership, you still end up with individuals dominating, just less officially.
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
I don't even know what 'scrap the whipping system' would even mean. You'd just have unofficial whipping and no one is stupid enough to believe otherwise.
It's like when people have committee leadership, you still end up with individuals dominating, just less officially.
Yes, it'd be like when they tried to ban team orders in F1.
FELIPE....FERNANDO IS FASTER THAN YOU. Did you understand that message?
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
An elected upper chamber is just barmy. It should be a mix of appointees and experts, strongly biased towards the latter.
Given it took 27 years to move from excluding most hereditaries to excluding them all, then if the goal is a fully elected upper chamber - as many want - then we might as well target it for 2050, no need to rush, clearly.
More seriously, it would force questions about the current constitutional settlement between the chambers, which does not seem worth getting into right now.
Less seriously, I hope they retain the name House of Lords if/when they go for fully elected - Senate is so common and boring now, and what harm using the historical title?
I remember a poll on Lib Dem Voice about 15 years ago where various options were suggested, one of which was 'The Other Place', as a funny nod to how the chambers refer to each other.
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Quite.
My expected seat ordering is Reform, Green, LD, Con, Lab. I feel very certain about 1, and think they'll be some way ahead. I feel that 2 and 3 will be pretty close, but with the Greens perhaps 50-100 seats ahead of the LDs. And I think 4 and 5 will be some way back again.
In a post on X, Birmigham Police said: "We are carrying out an evacuation at the Utilita Arena in Birmingham after a potential suspicious bag was found. A 19-year-old man is in custody and as a precaution the site is currently subject of a search. We will provide further updates when we can."
A bigger shock, Peter Kay still flogging that tour. Hasn't he been doing it for 3-4 years now?
People keep going. Same misheard lyrics (probably).
People must be on their 3-4th going around by now.
I like Peter Kay, Phoenix Night is great, but his stand-up is just fine, its very middle of the road and full of 'member berries, so I can see why lots of people have gone. But I can't imagine wanting to go multiple times.
Peter Kay’s stand up is like Family Guy - lots of stuff those of a certain age will get.
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
An elected upper chamber is just barmy. It should be a mix of appointees and experts, strongly biased towards the latter.
I have no issue with an elected upper house. Why not two representatives per county?
I think our county structure does not work as well for that purpose as, say, the states of the USA do. Outside of Yorkshire and Cornwall the sense of identity and coherence seems pretty low, and that's not even getting in to historic vs ceremonial vs administrative counties, and how you account for big urban areas as part of it (which MPs themselves faced a long time ago).
I think Ed M's suggestion was the Senate of Nations and Regions, but I don't think it had details on how you'd break it down. And some of the incoming strategic mayoral authorities may cross the standard English regions (Swindon not to be joined with the South West for example) so those may not be usable.
I think it is a matter more complex than people think of just making it all elected, so probably needs some kind of commission first.
It may have been a real thing in the second world war. Perhaps our continuing fixation on WW2 extends the myth? And under Trump? The only special relationship he has is with himself. His preference is for hubristic splendid isolation (until things go wrong).
The irony is that the Trump admin - despite its madness - is probably the most instinctively Anglophile US admin since Reagan
Trump and Vance and others genuinely see the UK as the homeland. The mother country. What they hate is the lefty woke way the old country has been misgoverned for decades
And for all their many other disastrous flaws, it’s hard to argue with their perception here
I think that is a rather optimistic view. The bile that comes from Vance in particular about Europe, which seems to include the UK, seems a bit too venemous to be merely dislike of woke leftists.
I do wonder if some random European or Brit once spoke down to Vance, and he's seethed about it ever since.
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
What are the odds that Sir Keir makes it to the next GE, then the seats fall in a way that Rupert Lowe becomes PM? Because someone on Betfair wants £600@42 he’s next Prime Minister. I just can’t see it being a 2% chance, not even 0.5% really
Isn't there a chace of a flesh eating bacteria killing 69 million people in the UK?
It may have been a real thing in the second world war. Perhaps our continuing fixation on WW2 extends the myth? And under Trump? The only special relationship he has is with himself. His preference is for hubristic splendid isolation (until things go wrong).
The irony is that the Trump admin - despite its madness - is probably the most instinctively Anglophile US admin since Reagan
Trump and Vance and others genuinely see the UK as the homeland. The mother country. What they hate is the lefty woke way the old country has been misgoverned for decades
And for all their many other disastrous flaws, it’s hard to argue with their perception here
I think that is a rather optimistic view. The bile that comes from Vance in particular about Europe, which seems to include the UK, seems a bit too venemous to be merely dislike of woke leftists.
I do wonder if some random European or Brit once spoke down to Vance, and he's seethed about it ever since.
It was those uppity Parisian waiters I hear so much about, it was bound to cause trouble eventually.
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Quite.
My expected seat ordering is Reform, Green, LD, Con, Lab. I feel very certain about 1, and think they'll be some way ahead. I feel that 2 and 3 will be pretty close, but with the Greens perhaps 50-100 seats ahead of the LDs. And I think 4 and 5 will be some way back again.
Of the last 5 GB polls, Reform lead in all of them, Labour lead the Greens in 4 of them and lead the LDs in all of them. That was before Polanski's Golders Green police gaffe today. The Tories are second in 3 of them. I think the Greens will make gains but underperform and Labour's expectations game is so low now Starmer can probably point to some swing on the upside when the results come in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
Trump: "Somalia, it's a beautiful place. It's got no anything. It's got one thing that's really strong -- crime. All they do is run around shooting each other. It's filthy dirty, disgusting dirty. It's a horrible place. They come here, and Ilhan Omar, she heads it. She married her brother. I would imagine they're looking at her. Isn't she despicable? We ought to get those people the hell out of our country."
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
An elected upper chamber is just barmy. It should be a mix of appointees and experts, strongly biased towards the latter.
Given it took 27 years to move from excluding most hereditaries to excluding them all, then if the goal is a fully elected upper chamber - as many want - then we might as well target it for 2050, no need to rush, clearly.
More seriously, it would force questions about the current constitutional settlement between the chambers, which does not seem worth getting into right now.
Less seriously, I hope they retain the name House of Lords if/when they go for fully elected - Senate is so common and boring now, and what harm using the historical title?
I remember a poll on Lib Dem Voice about 15 years ago where various options were suggested, one of which was 'The Other Place', as a funny nod to how the chambers refer to each other.
You can't have a House of Lords without any Lords in it, if we have a fully elected Senate it would just be full of common Senators, not even life peers and Lord Bishops let alone the departing hereditaries
Trump: "Somalia, it's a beautiful place. It's got no anything. It's got one thing that's really strong -- crime. All they do is run around shooting each other. It's filthy dirty, disgusting dirty. It's a horrible place. They come here, and Ilhan Omar, she heads it. She married her brother. I would imagine they're looking at her. Isn't she despicable? We ought to get those people the hell out of our country."
Remember - the GOP and 40% of voters LOVE when he does this stuff. They're looking at it and going 'He is so cool and strong for going after that person we hate'.
I could get behind most of that Burnham agenda. Regarding the Lords proposals, this should be the easiest on to push through, but with the lowest chance of actually getting through - because of the Lords themselves.
It will have broad support from Labour activists because it gives them a chance to get on the greasy pole.
The way to get Lords proposal through is to first cap the size of HoL as same size as HoC. To be achieved progressively by attrition - say 2 out 1 in until cap reached. Meanwhile all new members (whether appointed or elected) to be for single fixed term of 10 years only. No more Life Peers - no hereditiary peers - no religious appointments.
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
An elected upper chamber is just barmy. It should be a mix of appointees and experts, strongly biased towards the latter.
Given it took 27 years to move from excluding most hereditaries to excluding them all, then if the goal is a fully elected upper chamber - as many want - then we might as well target it for 2050, no need to rush, clearly.
More seriously, it would force questions about the current constitutional settlement between the chambers, which does not seem worth getting into right now.
Less seriously, I hope they retain the name House of Lords if/when they go for fully elected - Senate is so common and boring now, and what harm using the historical title?
I remember a poll on Lib Dem Voice about 15 years ago where various options were suggested, one of which was 'The Other Place', as a funny nod to how the chambers refer to each other.
You can't have a House of Lords without any Lords in it
Of course you can, it's just a name - we have 700 people in it right now who have no hereditary title but we randomly say 'OK, you are a "Lord" for life now. Or until you resign from this place'. Ask someone 130 years ago and I'd bet they'd say the people we call Lords now are not really Lords as they cannot pass on their titles.
Lord could just be a term we use for someone elected to the second chamber, it isn't a natural law that they have to be called Senators, which is just as random as "Lord" for some former academic or charity worker (or Spad) who has been appointed.
It may have been a real thing in the second world war. Perhaps our continuing fixation on WW2 extends the myth? And under Trump? The only special relationship he has is with himself. His preference is for hubristic splendid isolation (until things go wrong).
The irony is that the Trump admin - despite its madness - is probably the most instinctively Anglophile US admin since Reagan
Trump and Vance and others genuinely see the UK as the homeland. The mother country. What they hate is the lefty woke way the old country has been misgoverned for decades
And for all their many other disastrous flaws, it’s hard to argue with their perception here
I think that is a rather optimistic view. The bile that comes from Vance in particular about Europe, which seems to include the UK, seems a bit too venemous to be merely dislike of woke leftists.
I do wonder if some random European or Brit once spoke down to Vance, and he's seethed about it ever since.
Judging by his marriage, religious conversion and intellectual pretensions I'd say that Vance hates his own background and is yearning for acceptance by 'elites'.
Instead he gets the couch shagging bollox spread around instead.
He probably hates Trump as well for being a privileged moron.
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Quite.
My expected seat ordering is Reform, Green, LD, Con, Lab. I feel very certain about 1, and think they'll be some way ahead. I feel that 2 and 3 will be pretty close, but with the Greens perhaps 50-100 seats ahead of the LDs. And I think 4 and 5 will be some way back again.
Of the last 5 GB polls, Reform lead in all of them, Labour lead the Greens in 4 of them and lead the LDs in all of them. That was before Polanski's Golders Green police gaffe today. The Tories are second in 3 of them. I think the Greens will make gains but underperform and Labour's expectations game is so low now Starmer can probably point to some swing on the upside when the results come in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Yes, but I'm talking seats.
The LDs will be nowhere in 55% of the country, and challenging hard in 45%.
I could get behind most of that Burnham agenda. Regarding the Lords proposals, this should be the easiest on to push through, but with the lowest chance of actually getting through - because of the Lords themselves.
It will have broad support from Labour activists because it gives them a chance to get on the greasy pole.
The way to get Lords proposal through is to first cap the size of HoL as same size as HoC. To be achieved progressively by attrition - say 2 out 1 in until cap reached. Meanwhile all new members (whether appointed or elected) to be for single fixed term of 10 years only. No more Life Peers - no hereditiary peers - no religious appointments.
I've long bored people with some very easy quick ways to improve it without necessarily getting rid of it. A non-exhaustive list:
Upper limit on size of chamber
Retirement age of 75 (like Supreme Court judges) or 20 years maximum
Attendance requirements or you lose your seat - they are not elected, so it is fair
No one who has served in the Commons may be appointed for 8 years or 2 parliamentary terms, whichever is longer - so it is not a retirement home
No one who has donated to a political party (this includes heading a union which donated money) may be appointed for 8 years or 2 parliamentary terms, whichever is longer - so you cannot buy your way in like you can now
Retains the same set up and powers as now, no awkward arguments, you still have political patronage and turnover, but some egregious issues avoided.
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
An elected upper chamber is just barmy. It should be a mix of appointees and experts, strongly biased towards the latter.
Given it took 27 years to move from excluding most hereditaries to excluding them all, then if the goal is a fully elected upper chamber - as many want - then we might as well target it for 2050, no need to rush, clearly.
More seriously, it would force questions about the current constitutional settlement between the chambers, which does not seem worth getting into right now.
Less seriously, I hope they retain the name House of Lords if/when they go for fully elected - Senate is so common and boring now, and what harm using the historical title?
I remember a poll on Lib Dem Voice about 15 years ago where various options were suggested, one of which was 'The Other Place', as a funny nod to how the chambers refer to each other.
You can't have a House of Lords without any Lords in it
Of course you can, it's just a name - we have 700 people in it right now who have no hereditary title but we randomly say 'OK, you are a "Lord" for life now. Or until you resign from this place'. Ask someone 130 years ago and I'd bet they'd say the people we call Lords now are not really Lords as they cannot pass on their titles.
Lord could just be a term we use for someone elected to the second chamber, it isn't a natural law that they have to be called Senators, which is just as random as "Lord" for some former academic or charity worker (or Spad) who has been appointed.
Agreed. And if they want to keep using the title after the electorate has booted them out, so be it.
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
All this speculation about Burnham seems unlikely, not least it assumes other potential leaders are going to put on one side their ambitions for the return of someone who expects to win the crown without a contest
I assume next weekend, and before the King's speech, will be a very perilous time for Starmer (who is so unsuited to the job) and the opportunity for those hoping to claim the crown before the king of the north (which he is) attempts to roll up in the HOC
Not necessarily though, the latest Britain Votes Now forecast for next week is Reform to win most local council seats with 1393, then Labour second with 1253, the LDs third with 789, the Tories 4th with 721 and the Greens fifth with 631. If those were the results I expect Starmer survives
Another set of laughable predictions unfortunately.
Quite.
My expected seat ordering is Reform, Green, LD, Con, Lab. I feel very certain about 1, and think they'll be some way ahead. I feel that 2 and 3 will be pretty close, but with the Greens perhaps 50-100 seats ahead of the LDs. And I think 4 and 5 will be some way back again.
Of the last 5 GB polls, Reform lead in all of them, Labour lead the Greens in 4 of them and lead the LDs in all of them. That was before Polanski's Golders Green police gaffe today. The Tories are second in 3 of them. I think the Greens will make gains but underperform and Labour's expectations game is so low now Starmer can probably point to some swing on the upside when the results come in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Yes, but I'm talking seats.
The LDs will be nowhere in 55% of the country, and challenging hard in 45%.
Even on seats you would expect on the latest polling Labour to certainly beat the Greens and maybe even the LDs too given most seats up are in urban areas which favour Labour rather than the shires where the LDs do better
Sensible points. But too late. It’s over. You’re an even bigger busted flush than the Tories. Two-thirds of your MPs and over half the cabinet on course to lose their seats. Bye. The problem is that what comes next unlikely to be any better. We really are in trouble.
I don't think many Labour colleagues will appreciate coming back from a day canvassing for Thursday's elections to see energy being wasted on leadership speculation and talk about deliberately causing byelections, most of which comes across as rather entitled and about x.com/jessicaelgot/s…
Sensible points. But too late. It’s over. You’re an even bigger busted flush than the Tories. Two-thirds of your MPs and over half the cabinet on course to lose their seats. Bye. The problem is that what comes next unlikely to be any better. We really are in trouble.
I don't think many Labour colleagues will appreciate coming back from a day canvassing for Thursday's elections to see energy being wasted on leadership speculation and talk about deliberately causing byelections, most of which comes across as rather entitled and about x.com/jessicaelgot/s…
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
An elected upper chamber is just barmy. It should be a mix of appointees and experts, strongly biased towards the latter.
Given it took 27 years to move from excluding most hereditaries to excluding them all, then if the goal is a fully elected upper chamber - as many want - then we might as well target it for 2050, no need to rush, clearly.
More seriously, it would force questions about the current constitutional settlement between the chambers, which does not seem worth getting into right now.
Less seriously, I hope they retain the name House of Lords if/when they go for fully elected - Senate is so common and boring now, and what harm using the historical title?
I remember a poll on Lib Dem Voice about 15 years ago where various options were suggested, one of which was 'The Other Place', as a funny nod to how the chambers refer to each other.
You can't have a House of Lords without any Lords in it
Of course you can, it's just a name - we have 700 people in it right now who have no hereditary title but we randomly say 'OK, you are a "Lord" for life now. Or until you resign from this place'. Ask someone 130 years ago and I'd bet they'd say the people we call Lords now are not really Lords as they cannot pass on their titles.
Lord could just be a term we use for someone elected to the second chamber, it isn't a natural law that they have to be called Senators, which is just as random as "Lord" for some former academic or charity worker (or Spad) who has been appointed.
No you can't, Lords are peers of the realm, originally hereditary and since the 20th century life peers too.
An elected Senator is not a peer of the realm and never will be so an elected Senate can on no definition be a House of Lords as they depend on the whims of the voters for their place, they don't have it for life like life peers or for their children too like hereditary peers
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
That MAYBE prefix I suspect would apply to three quarters of the list.
a) It reads like a Compass meeting agenda
b) At least Labour would actually be fucking doing something if they did some of this. They were swept into power on a Change ticket and then did virtually nothing other than continuity Sunak (other than Ed M's energy stuff).
I don't really get the antipathy toward Burnham in some Labour-sympathetic circles. It's lucky for you that anyone half decent actually wants to take over the Labour shitshow. Stop looking a gift horse in the mouth and talking yourself into sticking with Sir Security Risk.
'The Burnham manifesto: •Rejoin the European Union •Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules… •Extensive devolution, including tax powers. •A wealth tax •Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail •A land value tax •A council tax revaluation •A ‘National Care Service’ •Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network •A £2 single fare bus cap •A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords •Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.” •No welfare reforms. •Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion… •Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy… •MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
An elected upper chamber is just barmy. It should be a mix of appointees and experts, strongly biased towards the latter.
Given it took 27 years to move from excluding most hereditaries to excluding them all, then if the goal is a fully elected upper chamber - as many want - then we might as well target it for 2050, no need to rush, clearly.
More seriously, it would force questions about the current constitutional settlement between the chambers, which does not seem worth getting into right now.
Less seriously, I hope they retain the name House of Lords if/when they go for fully elected - Senate is so common and boring now, and what harm using the historical title?
I remember a poll on Lib Dem Voice about 15 years ago where various options were suggested, one of which was 'The Other Place', as a funny nod to how the chambers refer to each other.
You can't have a House of Lords without any Lords in it
Of course you can, it's just a name - we have 700 people in it right now who have no hereditary title but we randomly say 'OK, you are a "Lord" for life now. Or until you resign from this place'. Ask someone 130 years ago and I'd bet they'd say the people we call Lords now are not really Lords as they cannot pass on their titles.
Lord could just be a term we use for someone elected to the second chamber, it isn't a natural law that they have to be called Senators, which is just as random as "Lord" for some former academic or charity worker (or Spad) who has been appointed.
Agreed. And if they want to keep using the title after the electorate has booted them out, so be it.
A Lord by definition should not ever need to care what the electorate think about them to keep their title, that was what distinguished them from the elected House of Commons and MPs in the first place! They were supposed to take a longer term view and not be prone to what the latest populist view of the masses was. MPs did need to care what voters thought of them to keep their title
Comments
In opposition you have centre left and left wings. If the left are in charge, they lose so they are never in power.
If the centre left are in charge they sometimes win. The ones who get the responsibility of cabinet and are constrained by annoying things like budgets and practicalities now move from the centre left to become the right and become unpopular. They don't really have any different worldview from the centre left figures outside of government, who become more and more popular with the party over time.
A bit like how before we had political parties you can talk of broad political interests which lack entirely inclusive definition, internal factions seem to be about vibes and personality, not anything truly ideological or about overall vision.
“Streeting ready to launch leadership challenge against Starmer
Health Secretary has recruited enough MPs to trigger a contest, with supporters calling for him to strike after local elections next week”
This sounds like it’s really happening. Finally?
On the way to Royan, I walked through a little town called L’Éguille. Almost everything there was oysters; farms, shops and restaurants. I really wanted oysters, but it was ten thirty in the morning
Since the ferry crossing, Ive walked another six miles to Soulac-sur-Mer. It’s a lovely little town; it has a Basilica that was buried by sand for more than a century
For some reason I couldn’t resist oysters for my starter, and I had a really good scallop dish for my main course
The Health Secretary has recruited more than 81 MPs – the minimum required to trigger a challenge – and is now contemplating his next move.
Sir Keir Starmer was alerted to Mr Streeting’s intentions when a Downing Street staff member was accidentally texted details of his plans, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, meaning plan for government.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/01/streeting-ready-to-launch-leadership-challenge-starmer/
Stop the presses...something crossed Starmer's desk.
Andrea Jenkins could play the Olive character and Zia Yousef could play the token brown person.
Most of their supporters would love it.
For Newham, to suggest Labour will win 60 seats, the Greens 4 and the NIP just 2 in no way represents what is happening on the ground.
Though that seems unlikely.
https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026
https://bsky.app/profile/mayor.nyc.gov/post/3mkdenykdhs2d
We're in a very reactive age, and it's hard to say even when a decision gets made with a big majority that it might end up being reversed.
Popcorn…
So Streeting, Rayner, Burnham (if he can), anyone else? Yvette?
Pollcheck has Labour losing control of Newham losing half their seats (32). The Greens win 17 and the NIP also win 17.
That's not going to happen - the Greens will win seven seats at most in Newham.
Once again, we have projections based on all sorts of statistical gimmickry ignoring the reality of what is actually happening.
This time next week, we'll be in a position to test Britain Elects and Pollcheck and all the others against reality.
https://x.com/BorisJohnson/status/2050283114740511089
A bigger shock, Peter Kay still flogging that tour. Hasn't he been doing it for 3-4 years now?
That will not leave you in good odour with TSE...
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/starmer-labour-local-elections-polling-guru-5HjdYRk_2/
https://x.com/maddenifico/status/2050180943197995335
“There is currently an industry in fishing expeditions by lobby journalists at the moment. Don’t feed it. It undermines all of us fighting elections locally”
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2050313455924560028?s=20
•Rejoin the European Union
•Break the fiscal rules to borrow more for defence. Thus destroying the fiscal rules…
•Extensive devolution, including tax powers.
•A wealth tax
•Nationalise water, energy, utilities, and what remains of rail
•A land value tax
•A council tax revaluation
•A ‘National Care Service’
•Rollout of nationalised bus franchising, modelled on Greater Manchester’s Bee Network
•A £2 single fare bus cap
•A fully elected upper chamber to replace the Lords
•Bring in “free transport for teenagers in England.”
•No welfare reforms.
•Build more council houses. By borrowing £40 billion…
•Scrap the whipping system in the Commons. An old favourite, truly barmy…
•MAYBE: Proportional representation. Once behind the No10 door, people tend to lose interest in that one…'
https://x.com/_adamcherry_/status/2049948099507089650?s=20
He wouldn't touch council tax revaluation - too much hassle.
National Care Service - been hearing that one since 2017, we shall see.
Not sure why an elected upper chamber makes it into the list of promises to try to excite people, it's not populist stuff, but whatever
No welfare reforms - of course, not we can have terrible growth and increasing demand but continue to assign what we do and more forever.
I like Peter Kay, Phoenix Night is great, but his stand-up is just fine, its very middle of the road and full of 'member berries, so I can see why lots of people have gone. But I can't imagine wanting to go multiple times.
It's like when people have committee leadership, you still end up with individuals dominating, just less officially.
FELIPE....FERNANDO IS FASTER THAN YOU. Did you understand that message?
More seriously, it would force questions about the current constitutional settlement between the chambers, which does not seem worth getting into right now.
Less seriously, I hope they retain the name House of Lords if/when they go for fully elected - Senate is so common and boring now, and what harm using the historical title?
I remember a poll on Lib Dem Voice about 15 years ago where various options were suggested, one of which was 'The Other Place', as a funny nod to how the chambers refer to each other.
My expected seat ordering is Reform, Green, LD, Con, Lab. I feel very certain about 1, and think they'll be some way ahead. I feel that 2 and 3 will be pretty close, but with the Greens perhaps 50-100 seats ahead of the LDs. And I think 4 and 5 will be some way back again.
I think Ed M's suggestion was the Senate of Nations and Regions, but I don't think it had details on how you'd break it down. And some of the incoming strategic mayoral authorities may cross the standard English regions (Swindon not to be joined with the South West for example) so those may not be usable.
I think it is a matter more complex than people think of just making it all elected, so probably needs some kind of commission first.
PR it? Reserve seats for each nation equally?
Are you Iranian or summat?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assembly_of_Experts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
The video clip is something else.
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
Trump: "Somalia, it's a beautiful place. It's got no anything. It's got one thing that's really strong -- crime. All they do is run around shooting each other. It's filthy dirty, disgusting dirty. It's a horrible place. They come here, and Ilhan Omar, she heads it. She married her brother. I would imagine they're looking at her. Isn't she despicable? We ought to get those people the hell out of our country."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2050312243993035225
Maybe 3-5% are inwardly cringing a bit.
It will have broad support from Labour activists because it gives them a chance to get on the greasy pole.
The way to get Lords proposal through is to first cap the size of HoL as same size as HoC. To be achieved progressively by attrition - say 2 out 1 in until cap reached. Meanwhile all new members (whether appointed or elected) to be for single fixed term of 10 years only. No more Life Peers - no hereditiary peers - no religious appointments.
Lord could just be a term we use for someone elected to the second chamber, it isn't a natural law that they have to be called Senators, which is just as random as "Lord" for some former academic or charity worker (or Spad) who has been appointed.
Instead he gets the couch shagging bollox spread around instead.
He probably hates Trump as well for being a privileged moron.
The LDs will be nowhere in 55% of the country, and challenging hard in 45%.
- Upper limit on size of chamber
- Retirement age of 75 (like Supreme Court judges) or 20 years maximum
- Attendance requirements or you lose your seat - they are not elected, so it is fair
- No one who has served in the Commons may be appointed for 8 years or 2 parliamentary terms, whichever is longer - so it is not a retirement home
- No one who has donated to a political party (this includes heading a union which donated money) may be appointed for 8 years or 2 parliamentary terms, whichever is longer - so you cannot buy your way in like you can now
Retains the same set up and powers as now, no awkward arguments, you still have political patronage and turnover, but some egregious issues avoided.Andrew Neil
@afneil
Sensible points. But too late. It’s over. You’re an even bigger busted flush than the Tories. Two-thirds of your MPs and over half the cabinet on course to lose their seats. Bye. The problem is that what comes next unlikely to be any better. We really are in trouble.
Quote
Luke Akehurst
@lukeakehurst
I don't think many Labour colleagues will appreciate coming back from a day canvassing for Thursday's elections to see energy being wasted on leadership speculation and talk about deliberately causing byelections, most of which comes across as rather entitled and about x.com/jessicaelgot/s…
https://x.com/afneil/status/2050308127669498337
Andrew Neil
@afneil
Sensible points. But too late. It’s over. You’re an even bigger busted flush than the Tories. Two-thirds of your MPs and over half the cabinet on course to lose their seats. Bye. The problem is that what comes next unlikely to be any better. We really are in trouble.
Quote
Luke Akehurst
@lukeakehurst
I don't think many Labour colleagues will appreciate coming back from a day canvassing for Thursday's elections to see energy being wasted on leadership speculation and talk about deliberately causing byelections, most of which comes across as rather entitled and about x.com/jessicaelgot/s…
https://x.com/afneil/status/2050308127669498337
An elected Senator is not a peer of the realm and never will be so an elected Senate can on no definition be a House of Lords as they depend on the whims of the voters for their place, they don't have it for life like life peers or for their children too like hereditary peers
b) At least Labour would actually be fucking doing something if they did some of this. They were swept into power on a Change ticket and then did virtually nothing other than continuity Sunak (other than Ed M's energy stuff).