Skip to content

There’s one story that has dominated the last week – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,170
edited April 22 in General
There’s one story that has dominated the last week – politicalbetting.com

What news story do Britons say they heard the most about last week? (fieldwork 19-20 April 2026)US-Iran war: 57% -General: 39% -Closure of Strait of Hormuz: 10% -Increase in fuel prices: 5% -Ceasefire talks: 3%Peter Mandelson vetting scandal: 18%yougov.com/en-gb/articl…

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,120
    edited April 22

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    Yes, the Mandelson story is largely a Westminster village story. The Iran conflict and rising cost of living with surging fuel prices is what impacts on the average voter far more. The more Starmer can focus on the latter and his keeping the UK out of the conflict while providing support for those on low incomes facing rise bills and the less on the former then the better for him
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726

    Foss said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Large chunks of Wales disliking the Tories is the status quo, large chunks of Wales disliking Labour is not.
    That really isn't as true as you think it is. Wales were very much in the Johnson camp during GE2019 as I recall. Much of SE Wales, rural Wales and coastal North Wales was very much on side with Thatcher, industrial Wales on the whole excepted, during the 80s.Yes it was Tory free in 1997 but that was the exception rather than the rule. Welsh Tories only reached the Senedd because of the list system in the first time of asking but Welsh Tories in the Senedd have subsequently on the whole been remarkably poor.


    (Pinched from wiki)

    Labour have never had less than 40% of the seats and are usually closer to 50%. YouGov are predicting a tremendous drop from 44 seats to 12 or 12.5% of the total.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    Foss said:

    Foss said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Large chunks of Wales disliking the Tories is the status quo, large chunks of Wales disliking Labour is not.
    That really isn't as true as you think it is. Wales were very much in the Johnson camp during GE2019 as I recall. Much of SE Wales, rural Wales and coastal North Wales was very much on side with Thatcher, industrial Wales on the whole excepted, during the 80s.Yes it was Tory free in 1997 but that was the exception rather than the rule. Welsh Tories only reached the Senedd because of the list system in the first time of asking but Welsh Tories in the Senedd have subsequently on the whole been remarkably poor.


    (Pinched from wiki)

    Labour have never had less than 40% of the seats and are usually closer to 50%. YouGov are predicting a tremendous drop from 44 seats to 12 or 12.5% of the total.
    Plaid would still likely need Labour support to keep out Reform if Reform are largest party in the Senedd and even if Plaid win most seats still for Plaid to get legislation through
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629
    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    Second, it doesn’t touch daily life. Most voters are focused on prices, mortgages and whatever the current global crisis happens to be.

    Curtice’s “floor” point is relevant here as well. If Labour/Starmer ratings are already close to rock bottom, there’s limited further downside. You can’t meaningfully damage numbers that are already baked in.

    So even if this dominates PB and the lobby, it doesn’t follow that it shifts votes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, the Mandelson story is largely a Westminster village story. The Iran conflict and rising cost of living with surging fuel prices is what impacts on the average voter far more. The more Starmer can focus on the latter and his keeping the UK out of the conflict while providing support for those on low incomes facing rise bills and the less on the former then the better for him

    The problem is his mps are not as sanquine and certainly the Mandelson story will continue tomorrow and Tuesday with McSweeney in front of the foreign affairs committee, then the May results followed by further tranches of Mandelson files released to the public

    It is a drip drip story that must have labour mps in despair

    https://news.sky.com/liveblog-webview/politics-latest-keir-starmer-peter-mandelson-vetting-commons-iran-war-olly-robbins-12593360
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320
    edited April 22
    A lot depends on whether the public think okay he totally screwed up with the Mandelson fiasco but he made a good decision on Iran .

    What though counts against this is he wasn’t popular before the fiasco and not wanting to flog a dead horse but everything began to unravel after the winter fuel allowance announcement .

    It’s this that made me realize both Starmer and Reeves were politically clueless.

    I’ve since partly forgiven Reeves for her ineptitude as she’s one of the cabinet members most enthusiastic about much closer ties with the EU and she did seem to be steadying the ship before Trumps imbecilic war in Iran .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760
    Foss said:

    Foss said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Large chunks of Wales disliking the Tories is the status quo, large chunks of Wales disliking Labour is not.
    That really isn't as true as you think it is. Wales were very much in the Johnson camp during GE2019 as I recall. Much of SE Wales, rural Wales and coastal North Wales was very much on side with Thatcher, industrial Wales on the whole excepted, during the 80s.Yes it was Tory free in 1997 but that was the exception rather than the rule. Welsh Tories only reached the Senedd because of the list system in the first time of asking but Welsh Tories in the Senedd have subsequently on the whole been remarkably poor.


    (Pinched from wiki)

    Labour have never had less than 40% of the seats and are usually closer to 50%. YouGov are predicting a tremendous drop from 44 seats to 12 or 12.5% of the total.
    You have only selected Senedd elections. Have a look at GEs too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    edited April 22
    39% for the war in Iran is also quite low when you think of the consquences

    Maybe Starmer is already a lost cause in the public's view

    And Trump at 6% is really astonishingly low

    Artemis moon mission at 1% !!!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566

    39% for the war in Iran is also quite low when you think of the consquences

    Maybe Starmer is already a lost cause in the public's view

    And Trump at 6% is really astonishingly low

    It’s 59% when you add in the other options.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760
    nico67 said:

    A lot depends on whether the public think okay he totally screwed up with the Mandelson fiasco but he made a good decision on Iran .

    What though counts against this is he wasn’t popular before the fiasco and not wanting to flog a dead horse but everything began to unravel after the winter fuel allowance announcement .

    It’s this that made me realize both Starmer and Reeves were politically clueless.

    I’ve since partly forgiven Reeves for her ineptitude as she’s one of the cabinet members most enthusiastic about much closer ties with the EU and she did seem to be steadying the ship before Trumps imbecilic war in Iran .

    I think we are beyond "Starmer is having a good war".
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129

    39% for the war in Iran is also quite low when you think of the consquences

    Maybe Starmer is already a lost cause in the public's view

    And Trump at 6% is really astonishingly low

    It’s 59% when you add in the other options.
    Fair comment
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,142
    Here's a curious statistic - probably variation but

    Week beginning on April 12, 2026: 429.80 ppm
    Weekly value from 1 year ago: 430.16 ppm

    Very rare the weekly value is below the previous year's CO2.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,186
    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a curious statistic - probably variation but

    Week beginning on April 12, 2026: 429.80 ppm
    Weekly value from 1 year ago: 430.16 ppm

    Very rare the weekly value is below the previous year's CO2.

    Its because we are all holding our breath over Iran...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,421

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    There are some Tory posters; fair enough.

    The rest don't strike me as particularly Tory, though. Labour (still), LibDem, some trending Green.

    Can't recall any Reformers but you have to be able to use a keyboard to post here!
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,242

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    I think you are somewhat deluded. I see no evidence that PB, in its current iteration, is a Tory site. It might once have been. And I don't think many on here actively hate other posters, they perhaps strongly disagree and/or think them insane, but hate is remarkably absent from PB. It is one of the best places on the internet in that regard.
    Don't we all come here to lose money? It's certainly helped me do that.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320

    nico67 said:

    A lot depends on whether the public think okay he totally screwed up with the Mandelson fiasco but he made a good decision on Iran .

    What though counts against this is he wasn’t popular before the fiasco and not wanting to flog a dead horse but everything began to unravel after the winter fuel allowance announcement .

    It’s this that made me realize both Starmer and Reeves were politically clueless.

    I’ve since partly forgiven Reeves for her ineptitude as she’s one of the cabinet members most enthusiastic about much closer ties with the EU and she did seem to be steadying the ship before Trumps imbecilic war in Iran .

    I think we are beyond "Starmer is having a good war".
    That might be the case but I think Labour should try a Hail Mary at the May elections .

    They should go after Badenoch and Farage on their support for the US action .

    They both supported a war which is now screwing you on the cost of living .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,884

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a curious statistic - probably variation but

    Week beginning on April 12, 2026: 429.80 ppm
    Weekly value from 1 year ago: 430.16 ppm

    Very rare the weekly value is below the previous year's CO2.

    Its because we are all holding our breath over Iran...
    Very good.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,490
    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,884
    MattW said:

    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297

    A mistake. Obviously.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    A lot depends on whether the public think okay he totally screwed up with the Mandelson fiasco but he made a good decision on Iran .

    What though counts against this is he wasn’t popular before the fiasco and not wanting to flog a dead horse but everything began to unravel after the winter fuel allowance announcement .

    It’s this that made me realize both Starmer and Reeves were politically clueless.

    I’ve since partly forgiven Reeves for her ineptitude as she’s one of the cabinet members most enthusiastic about much closer ties with the EU and she did seem to be steadying the ship before Trumps imbecilic war in Iran .

    I think we are beyond "Starmer is having a good war".
    That might be the case but I think Labour should try a Hail Mary at the May elections .

    They should go after Badenoch and Farage on their support for the US action .

    They both supported a war which is now screwing you on the cost of living .
    Starmer continually attacks Farage and Reform improve in the polls

    Why Starmer gives Farage airtime is a mystery to me
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,499
    edited April 22
    Given the possibility that Starmer might resign, Why are Powell's odds so high?

    Bf 70 next PM and 50 next Lab leader. Too big surely?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320
    edited April 22

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    A lot depends on whether the public think okay he totally screwed up with the Mandelson fiasco but he made a good decision on Iran .

    What though counts against this is he wasn’t popular before the fiasco and not wanting to flog a dead horse but everything began to unravel after the winter fuel allowance announcement .

    It’s this that made me realize both Starmer and Reeves were politically clueless.

    I’ve since partly forgiven Reeves for her ineptitude as she’s one of the cabinet members most enthusiastic about much closer ties with the EU and she did seem to be steadying the ship before Trumps imbecilic war in Iran .

    I think we are beyond "Starmer is having a good war".
    That might be the case but I think Labour should try a Hail Mary at the May elections .

    They should go after Badenoch and Farage on their support for the US action .

    They both supported a war which is now screwing you on the cost of living .
    Starmer continually attacks Farage and Reform improve in the polls

    Why Starmer gives Farage airtime is a mystery to me
    Farage gets airtime regardless . Brits don’t like Trump and Farages ugly face gleaming at Trump should be on campaign leaflets . A vote for Reform is a vote for Trump whose stupid war is screwing our economy .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,835
    edited April 22
    Now briefing against the PM from the cabinet

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/22/olly-robbins-starmer-sacking-ministers-cabinet-meeting

    Cabinet ministers have expressed concern about Keir’s Starmer’s decision to sack Olly Robbins as the Foreign Office’s top official over the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal as they warned him not to alienate the civil service, sources have told the Guardian.

    Those who intervened included the deputy prime minister, David Lammy, who warned against creating a “them and us” mentality between ministers and officials, as Whitehall reels in the fallout from the vetting scandal.

    The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is understood to have questioned whether it was justifiable to sack Robbins for his failure to tell Starmer that Mandelson had failed vetting, and then to praise him as an outstanding civil servant.

    Three others, including the health secretary, Wes Streeting, and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, warned the prime minister not to pick fights with officials and instead to keep them “on side” – a position with which Starmer said he agreed.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,421

    Now briefing against the PM from the cabinet

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/22/olly-robbins-starmer-sacking-ministers-cabinet-meeting

    Cabinet ministers have expressed concern about Keir’s Starmer’s decision to sack Olly Robbins as the Foreign Office’s top official over the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal as they warned him not to alienate the civil service, sources have told the Guardian.

    Those who intervened included the deputy prime minister, David Lammy, who warned against creating a “them and us” mentality between ministers and officials, as Whitehall reels in the fallout from the vetting scandal.

    The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is understood to have questioned whether it was justifiable to sack Robbins for his failure to tell Starmer that Mandelson had failed vetting, and then to praise him as an outstanding civil servant.

    Three others, including the health secretary, Wes Streeting, and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, warned the prime minister not to pick fights with officials and instead to keep them “on side” – a position with which Starmer said he agreed.

    Sound advice.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,378
    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    "That Starmer is almost as dodgy a wanker as that "Lord" Mandelson, eh?"

    Sorted.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,884
    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a curious statistic - probably variation but

    Week beginning on April 12, 2026: 429.80 ppm
    Weekly value from 1 year ago: 430.16 ppm

    Very rare the weekly value is below the previous year's CO2.

    Can the atmospheric conditions affect this?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,339
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297

    A mistake. Obviously.
    Oh I don't know. They are getting a royal visit out of it.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,936

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    I don’t even hate Roger, who said that I deserved a sleepless night of excruciating pain for having the wrong opinion on Gaza

    You two are so desperate to be victims; it’s weird..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,378
    Battlebus said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    I think you are somewhat deluded. I see no evidence that PB, in its current iteration, is a Tory site. It might once have been. And I don't think many on here actively hate other posters, they perhaps strongly disagree and/or think them insane, but hate is remarkably absent from PB. It is one of the best places on the internet in that regard.
    Don't we all come here to lose money? It's certainly helped me do that.
    I come here to lose time.

    Huge amounts of time...
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,259
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    A lot depends on whether the public think okay he totally screwed up with the Mandelson fiasco but he made a good decision on Iran .

    What though counts against this is he wasn’t popular before the fiasco and not wanting to flog a dead horse but everything began to unravel after the winter fuel allowance announcement .

    It’s this that made me realize both Starmer and Reeves were politically clueless.

    I’ve since partly forgiven Reeves for her ineptitude as she’s one of the cabinet members most enthusiastic about much closer ties with the EU and she did seem to be steadying the ship before Trumps imbecilic war in Iran .

    I think we are beyond "Starmer is having a good war".
    That might be the case but I think Labour should try a Hail Mary at the May elections .

    They should go after Badenoch and Farage on their support for the US action .

    They both supported a war which is now screwing you on the cost of living .
    What is that to do with local elections?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760

    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    "That Starmer is almost as dodgy a wanker as that "Lord" Mandelson, eh?"

    Sorted.
    He is, but you are Lord Astor and I am Mandy Rice Davies, or Miss Austin 1960 if you prefer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,884

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297

    A mistake. Obviously.
    Oh I don't know. They are getting a royal visit out of it.
    But when they say, “NO KINGS” it is surely implied that is other than Charles III?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,553
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a curious statistic - probably variation but

    Week beginning on April 12, 2026: 429.80 ppm
    Weekly value from 1 year ago: 430.16 ppm

    Very rare the weekly value is below the previous year's CO2.

    Can the atmospheric conditions affect this?
    That's fascinating. How rare an event is this?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,378

    Three others, including the health secretary, Wes Streeting, and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, warned the prime minister not to pick fights with officials and instead to keep them “on side” – a position with which Starmer said he agreed.

    Did he say that before or after picking a fight with officials?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297

    A mistake. Obviously.
    Oh I don't know. They are getting a royal visit out of it.
    But when they say, “NO KINGS” it is surely implied that is other than Charles III?
    I expect most Democrats like most Canadians would on a forced choice prefer King Charles III as their head of state to Trump
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760
    edited April 22

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    I think you are somewhat deluded. I see no evidence that PB, in its current iteration, is a Tory site. It might once have been. And I don't think many on here actively hate other posters, they perhaps strongly disagree and/or think them insane, but hate is remarkably absent from PB. It is one of the best places on the internet in that regard.
    But then you haven't been on the receiving end. It's fair game as I have suggested. When I was in full Boris is a w***** mode there was a lot of kickback, some in private.

    Hating non-conformist posters is all part of the fun.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,421

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    I think you are somewhat deluded. I see no evidence that PB, in its current iteration, is a Tory site. It might once have been. And I don't think many on here actively hate other posters, they perhaps strongly disagree and/or think them insane, but hate is remarkably absent from PB. It is one of the best places on the internet in that regard.
    But then you haven't been on the receiving end. It's fair game as I have suggested. When I was in full Boris is a w***** mode there was a lot of kickback, some in private.

    Hating non-conformist posters is all part of the fun.
    OGH isn't a Tory.

    Anyone know how he is these days? Wish him well.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    I don’t even hate Roger, who said that I deserved a sleepless night of excruciating pain for having the wrong opinion on Gaza

    You two are so desperate to be victims; it’s weird..
    As an aside you are not one of my favourite posters either, but I'll keep that to myself.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297

    A mistake. Obviously.
    Oh I don't know. They are getting a royal visit out of it.
    But when they say, “NO KINGS” it is surely implied that is other than Charles III?
    I expect most Democrats like most Canadians would on a forced choice prefer King Charles III as their head of state to Trump
    You are not suggesting we invade the US and install Charlie are you ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    I think you are somewhat deluded. I see no evidence that PB, in its current iteration, is a Tory site. It might once have been. And I don't think many on here actively hate other posters, they perhaps strongly disagree and/or think them insane, but hate is remarkably absent from PB. It is one of the best places on the internet in that regard.
    But then you haven't been on the receiving end. It's fair game as I have suggested. When I was in full Boris is a w***** mode there was a lot of kickback, some in private.

    Hating non-conformist posters is all part of the fun.
    OGH isn't a Tory.

    Anyone know how he is these days? Wish him well.
    I think there is a particular brand of non-conformist who gets the backs up of a certain breed of conformist. Brixian, Roger, Horse and myself are good examples. Although there are and have been others, some of whom have thrown in the towel. All part of the cut and thrust of being on this site.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,884

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297

    A mistake. Obviously.
    Oh I don't know. They are getting a royal visit out of it.
    But when they say, “NO KINGS” it is surely implied that is other than Charles III?
    I expect most Democrats like most Canadians would on a forced choice prefer King Charles III as their head of state to Trump
    You are not suggesting we invade the US and install Charlie are you ?
    I am not entirely sure we are up to invading the Isle of Wright anymore.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,553

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    A lot depends on whether the public think okay he totally screwed up with the Mandelson fiasco but he made a good decision on Iran .

    What though counts against this is he wasn’t popular before the fiasco and not wanting to flog a dead horse but everything began to unravel after the winter fuel allowance announcement .

    It’s this that made me realize both Starmer and Reeves were politically clueless.

    I’ve since partly forgiven Reeves for her ineptitude as she’s one of the cabinet members most enthusiastic about much closer ties with the EU and she did seem to be steadying the ship before Trumps imbecilic war in Iran .

    I think we are beyond "Starmer is having a good war".
    That might be the case but I think Labour should try a Hail Mary at the May elections .

    They should go after Badenoch and Farage on their support for the US action .

    They both supported a war which is now screwing you on the cost of living .
    What is that to do with local elections?
    Realistically, how many votes at local elections reflect local issues? Substantially less than half, I would suggest.

    I still haven't decided how I will vote at the locals. Rationally, Labour, as the local representative of continuity LabCon against any potential GrnRef candidate. But it's going to be the party leaders who carry the can for the score, and I feel like giving Kemi a vote of confidence.

    It seems hard to believe my local result will be anything but Lab, but I do buy the projections of Lab losing 75% of their councillors and there's going to be a lot of people thinking their local result is still nailed on Lab who end up surprised.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,914

    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    "That Starmer is almost as dodgy a wanker as that "Lord" Mandelson, eh?"

    Sorted.
    Did you see all the dodgy stuff Starmer did to make his dodgy mate “Lord” Mandelson the US Ambassador to make Trump happy.

    That last bit added to really trigger some people
  • eekeek Posts: 33,914
    Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    A lot depends on whether the public think okay he totally screwed up with the Mandelson fiasco but he made a good decision on Iran .

    What though counts against this is he wasn’t popular before the fiasco and not wanting to flog a dead horse but everything began to unravel after the winter fuel allowance announcement .

    It’s this that made me realize both Starmer and Reeves were politically clueless.

    I’ve since partly forgiven Reeves for her ineptitude as she’s one of the cabinet members most enthusiastic about much closer ties with the EU and she did seem to be steadying the ship before Trumps imbecilic war in Iran .

    I think we are beyond "Starmer is having a good war".
    That might be the case but I think Labour should try a Hail Mary at the May elections .

    They should go after Badenoch and Farage on their support for the US action .

    They both supported a war which is now screwing you on the cost of living .
    What is that to do with local elections?
    Realistically, how many votes at local elections reflect local issues? Substantially less than half, I would suggest.

    I still haven't decided how I will vote at the locals. Rationally, Labour, as the local representative of continuity LabCon against any potential GrnRef candidate. But it's going to be the party leaders who carry the can for the score, and I feel like giving Kemi a vote of confidence.

    It seems hard to believe my local result will be anything but Lab, but I do buy the projections of Lab losing 75% of their councillors and there's going to be a lot of people thinking their local result is still nailed on Lab who end up surprised.
    It’s the nailed on Lab voters who don’t actually vote that will result in Labour losing those seats. How you get your vote out without giving the other side confidence is an impossible task however
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,421
    edited April 22
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297

    A mistake. Obviously.
    Oh I don't know. They are getting a royal visit out of it.
    But when they say, “NO KINGS” it is surely implied that is other than Charles III?
    I expect most Democrats like most Canadians would on a forced choice prefer King Charles III as their head of state to Trump
    You are not suggesting we invade the US and install Charlie are you ?
    I am not entirely sure we are up to invading the Isle of Wright anymore.
    The Canvey Island Independence Party controls Canvey Town Council and have been left to get on with it!

    Although Reform are challenging them now; sometimes I wish I was still involved in politics there. It would be an 'interesting' experience.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,186

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    I think you are somewhat deluded. I see no evidence that PB, in its current iteration, is a Tory site. It might once have been. And I don't think many on here actively hate other posters, they perhaps strongly disagree and/or think them insane, but hate is remarkably absent from PB. It is one of the best places on the internet in that regard.
    But then you haven't been on the receiving end. It's fair game as I have suggested. When I was in full Boris is a w***** mode there was a lot of kickback, some in private.

    Hating non-conformist posters is all part of the fun.
    OGH isn't a Tory.

    Anyone know how he is these days? Wish him well.
    I think there is a particular brand of non-conformist who gets the backs up of a certain breed of conformist. Brixian, Roger, Horse and myself are good examples. Although there are and have been others, some of whom have thrown in the towel. All part of the cut and thrust of being on this site.
    Brixian is essentially a Labour staffer spamming the site with Anti-Badenoch posts. Thats not a non-conformist. Roger is fiercely animated by a hatred of Israel.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629
    edited April 22
    eek said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    "That Starmer is almost as dodgy a wanker as that "Lord" Mandelson, eh?"

    Sorted.
    Did you see all the dodgy stuff Starmer did to make his dodgy mate “Lord” Mandelson the US Ambassador to make Trump happy.

    That last bit added to really trigger some people

    Fine as a barb but most voters aren’t following the detail and aren’t especially interested in it. It doesn’t affect their day-to-day, so it gets filed under “politics being politics”.
    It's background noise confirming what people already think - if his approval ratings are accurate.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    I think you are somewhat deluded. I see no evidence that PB, in its current iteration, is a Tory site. It might once have been. And I don't think many on here actively hate other posters, they perhaps strongly disagree and/or think them insane, but hate is remarkably absent from PB. It is one of the best places on the internet in that regard.
    But then you haven't been on the receiving end. It's fair game as I have suggested. When I was in full Boris is a w***** mode there was a lot of kickback, some in private.

    Hating non-conformist posters is all part of the fun.
    OGH isn't a Tory.

    Anyone know how he is these days? Wish him well.
    I think there is a particular brand of non-conformist who gets the backs up of a certain breed of conformist. Brixian, Roger, Horse and myself are good examples. Although there are and have been others, some of whom have thrown in the towel. All part of the cut and thrust of being on this site.
    Brixian is essentially a Labour staffer spamming the site with Anti-Badenoch posts. Thats not a non-conformist. Roger is fiercely animated by a hatred of Israel.
    See what I mean.

    Roger is Manchester Jewish. You are making the same mistake, but from a different vantage point, as BJO did earlier of confusing Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben Gvir with Jewish people going about their business in the South of France but who disagree vehemently with the regime.

    I doubt Brixian was a staffer. Anyway he's gone now, so no harm done.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,835
    Jennie Formby defects to the Greens

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/2046952999809933463
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,186

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    I think you are somewhat deluded. I see no evidence that PB, in its current iteration, is a Tory site. It might once have been. And I don't think many on here actively hate other posters, they perhaps strongly disagree and/or think them insane, but hate is remarkably absent from PB. It is one of the best places on the internet in that regard.
    But then you haven't been on the receiving end. It's fair game as I have suggested. When I was in full Boris is a w***** mode there was a lot of kickback, some in private.

    Hating non-conformist posters is all part of the fun.
    OGH isn't a Tory.

    Anyone know how he is these days? Wish him well.
    I think there is a particular brand of non-conformist who gets the backs up of a certain breed of conformist. Brixian, Roger, Horse and myself are good examples. Although there are and have been others, some of whom have thrown in the towel. All part of the cut and thrust of being on this site.
    Brixian is essentially a Labour staffer spamming the site with Anti-Badenoch posts. Thats not a non-conformist. Roger is fiercely animated by a hatred of Israel.
    See what I mean.

    Roger is Manchester Jewish. You are making the same mistake, but from a different vantage point, as BJO did earlier of confusing Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben Gvir with Jewish people going about their business in the South of France but who disagree vehemently with the regime.

    I doubt Brixian was a staffer. Anyway he's gone now, so no harm done.
    I don't think I am. Its perfectly possible for a jew to loathe Israel, in the same way that it is possible for left wingers to hate England. Roger's post rarely show any nuance regarding Gaza/Palestine.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    A lot depends on whether the public think okay he totally screwed up with the Mandelson fiasco but he made a good decision on Iran .

    What though counts against this is he wasn’t popular before the fiasco and not wanting to flog a dead horse but everything began to unravel after the winter fuel allowance announcement .

    It’s this that made me realize both Starmer and Reeves were politically clueless.

    I’ve since partly forgiven Reeves for her ineptitude as she’s one of the cabinet members most enthusiastic about much closer ties with the EU and she did seem to be steadying the ship before Trumps imbecilic war in Iran .

    I think we are beyond "Starmer is having a good war".
    That might be the case but I think Labour should try a Hail Mary at the May elections .

    They should go after Badenoch and Farage on their support for the US action .

    They both supported a war which is now screwing you on the cost of living .
    What is that to do with local elections?
    Cost of living issues are going to be made worse by the war , voters needed to be reminded of who supports that .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760

    Jennie Formby defects to the Greens

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/2046952999809933463

    Thoughts and prayers for the Green Tories of North Herefordshire.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    I think you are somewhat deluded. I see no evidence that PB, in its current iteration, is a Tory site. It might once have been. And I don't think many on here actively hate other posters, they perhaps strongly disagree and/or think them insane, but hate is remarkably absent from PB. It is one of the best places on the internet in that regard.
    But then you haven't been on the receiving end. It's fair game as I have suggested. When I was in full Boris is a w***** mode there was a lot of kickback, some in private.

    Hating non-conformist posters is all part of the fun.
    OGH isn't a Tory.

    Anyone know how he is these days? Wish him well.
    I think there is a particular brand of non-conformist who gets the backs up of a certain breed of conformist. Brixian, Roger, Horse and myself are good examples. Although there are and have been others, some of whom have thrown in the towel. All part of the cut and thrust of being on this site.
    Brixian is essentially a Labour staffer spamming the site with Anti-Badenoch posts. Thats not a non-conformist. Roger is fiercely animated by a hatred of Israel.
    See what I mean.

    Roger is Manchester Jewish. You are making the same mistake, but from a different vantage point, as BJO did earlier of confusing Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben Gvir with Jewish people going about their business in the South of France but who disagree vehemently with the regime.

    I doubt Brixian was a staffer. Anyway he's gone now, so no harm done.
    I don't think I am. Its perfectly possible for a jew to loathe Israel, in the same way that it is possible for left wingers to hate England. Roger's post rarely show any nuance regarding Gaza/Palestine.
    Blimey another stereotype. Left wingers hate England. What next? Only flag hanging racists are patriots.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    Second, it doesn’t touch daily life. Most voters are focused on prices, mortgages and whatever the current global crisis happens to be.

    Curtice’s “floor” point is relevant here as well. If Labour/Starmer ratings are already close to rock bottom, there’s limited further downside. You can’t meaningfully damage numbers that are already baked in.

    So even if this dominates PB and the lobby, it doesn’t follow that it shifts votes.

    Starmer appointed Epstein friend Peter Mandelson even though he failed vetting.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887
    edited April 22
    Sweeney74 said:

    eek said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    "That Starmer is almost as dodgy a wanker as that "Lord" Mandelson, eh?"

    Sorted.
    Did you see all the dodgy stuff Starmer did to make his dodgy mate “Lord” Mandelson the US Ambassador to make Trump happy.

    That last bit added to really trigger some people
    Fine as a barb but most voters aren’t following the detail and aren’t especially interested in it. It doesn’t affect their day-to-day, so it gets filed under “politics being politics”.
    It's background noise confirming what people already think - if his approval ratings are accurate.

    Boris eating a birthday cake didn’t “affect their daily life” either. But look what happened there.

    This is about morals, judgement and integrity. Do you not think voters care about those?
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629
    More vetting failures:

    The Times - Reform UK candidate said Nazis were ‘real visionaries’
    Reform UK has been accused of a “systemic failure” in its vetting after candidates were found to have described the Nazis as “real visionaries”, complained that immigrants breed “like rats” and encouraged Southport rioters to burn down a mosque.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,421
    Sweeney74 said:

    More vetting failures:

    The Times - Reform UK candidate said Nazis were ‘real visionaries’

    Reform UK has been accused of a “systemic failure” in its vetting after candidates were found to have described the Nazis as “real visionaries”, complained that immigrants breed “like rats” and encouraged Southport rioters to burn down a mosque.
    Not sure that Reform would regard that as a 'failure''
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629
    edited April 22

    Sweeney74 said:

    eek said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    "That Starmer is almost as dodgy a wanker as that "Lord" Mandelson, eh?"

    Sorted.
    Did you see all the dodgy stuff Starmer did to make his dodgy mate “Lord” Mandelson the US Ambassador to make Trump happy.

    That last bit added to really trigger some people

    Fine as a barb but most voters aren’t following the detail and aren’t especially interested in it. It doesn’t affect their day-to-day, so it gets filed under “politics being politics”.
    It's background noise confirming what people already think - if his approval ratings are accurate.
    Boris eating a birthday cake didn’t “affect their daily life” either. But look what happened there.

    This is about morals, judgement and integrity. Do you not think voters care about those?
    I didn't say they don't care, more that his status is so low that it is already baked in... the affair doesn't change the perception.
    Partygate cut through because it was instantly legible (“they made rules and broke them”) and it did connect to daily life. People couldn’t see family, attend funerals, etc. That wasn’t abstract.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760
    edited April 22

    Sweeney74 said:

    eek said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    "That Starmer is almost as dodgy a wanker as that "Lord" Mandelson, eh?"

    Sorted.
    Did you see all the dodgy stuff Starmer did to make his dodgy mate “Lord” Mandelson the US Ambassador to make Trump happy.

    That last bit added to really trigger some people
    Fine as a barb but most voters aren’t following the detail and aren’t especially interested in it. It doesn’t affect their day-to-day, so it gets filed under “politics being politics”.
    It's background noise confirming what people already think - if his approval ratings are accurate.
    Boris eating a birthday cake didn’t “affect their daily life” either. But look what happened there.

    This is about morals, judgement and integrity. Do you not think voters care about those?
    Point of order.

    Johnson was not sanctioned by Parliament for eating a birthday cake.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,320

    Sweeney74 said:

    eek said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    "That Starmer is almost as dodgy a wanker as that "Lord" Mandelson, eh?"

    Sorted.
    Did you see all the dodgy stuff Starmer did to make his dodgy mate “Lord” Mandelson the US Ambassador to make Trump happy.

    That last bit added to really trigger some people
    Fine as a barb but most voters aren’t following the detail and aren’t especially interested in it. It doesn’t affect their day-to-day, so it gets filed under “politics being politics”.
    It's background noise confirming what people already think - if his approval ratings are accurate.
    Boris eating a birthday cake didn’t “affect their daily life” either. But look what happened there.

    This is about morals, judgement and integrity. Do you not think voters care about those?

    The cake myth has done a lot of heavy lifting . This wasn’t what brought Johnson down . The final straw was the Pincher affair . Starmer for all his faults isn’t in the same league as Johnson.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,352

    Jennie Formby defects to the Greens

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/2046952999809933463

    Thoughts and prayers for the Green Tories of North Herefordshire.
    None of this would be happening if Corbyn and Sultana had not f-cked up the launch of their own party.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760

    Jennie Formby defects to the Greens

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/2046952999809933463

    Thoughts and prayers for the Green Tories of North Herefordshire.
    None of this would be happening if Corbyn and Sultana had not f-cked up the launch of their own party.
    I see the weakness in your argument there. I have highlighted the issue.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,936

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    I don’t even hate Roger, who said that I deserved a sleepless night of excruciating pain for having the wrong opinion on Gaza

    You two are so desperate to be victims; it’s weird..
    As an aside you are not one of my favourite posters either, but I'll keep that to myself.
    Thank holy fuck for that
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760
    edited April 22
    nico67 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    eek said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    "That Starmer is almost as dodgy a wanker as that "Lord" Mandelson, eh?"

    Sorted.
    Did you see all the dodgy stuff Starmer did to make his dodgy mate “Lord” Mandelson the US Ambassador to make Trump happy.

    That last bit added to really trigger some people
    Fine as a barb but most voters aren’t following the detail and aren’t especially interested in it. It doesn’t affect their day-to-day, so it gets filed under “politics being politics”.
    It's background noise confirming what people already think - if his approval ratings are accurate.
    Boris eating a birthday cake didn’t “affect their daily life” either. But look what happened there.

    This is about morals, judgement and integrity. Do you not think voters care about those?
    The cake myth has done a lot of heavy lifting . This wasn’t what brought Johnson down . The final straw was the Pincher affair . Starmer for all his faults isn’t in the same league as Johnson.
    Sacking Robbins comes quite close.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,877
    edited April 22
    rcs1000 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    Second, it doesn’t touch daily life. Most voters are focused on prices, mortgages and whatever the current global crisis happens to be.

    Curtice’s “floor” point is relevant here as well. If Labour/Starmer ratings are already close to rock bottom, there’s limited further downside. You can’t meaningfully damage numbers that are already baked in.

    So even if this dominates PB and the lobby, it doesn’t follow that it shifts votes.

    Starmer appointed Epstein friend Peter Mandelson even though he failed vetting.
    It would be like running a bank and you decide you will let Tommy Robinson open an account because you want all his lovely donation money sitting in there and then, even though you know he’s a bad un and telling him he has to wait to go through Due Diligence and then checking with compliance if he passes, you send him an email to tell him his account is sorted, pass on the bank details for him to send his funds, like a Linked-In post where he tells his supporters he’s glad to be using your bank and then sacking the head of compliance when they reject his account for reputational risk and source of funds problems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,835
    https://x.com/BBCPolitics/status/2046964073762545780

    "Your position is that Olly Robbins followed the correct process, but the correct process turns out to be flawed?"

    On #PoliticsLive @hzeffman questions Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray over the Peter Mandelson vetting process
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629

    nico67 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    eek said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    On the lack of cut-through, this looks fairly straightforward.

    First, it’s not legible. You can’t explain the Mandelson story in a single clean sentence without disappearing into procedural detail.

    "That Starmer is almost as dodgy a wanker as that "Lord" Mandelson, eh?"

    Sorted.
    Did you see all the dodgy stuff Starmer did to make his dodgy mate “Lord” Mandelson the US Ambassador to make Trump happy.

    That last bit added to really trigger some people
    Fine as a barb but most voters aren’t following the detail and aren’t especially interested in it. It doesn’t affect their day-to-day, so it gets filed under “politics being politics”.
    It's background noise confirming what people already think - if his approval ratings are accurate.
    Boris eating a birthday cake didn’t “affect their daily life” either. But look what happened there.

    This is about morals, judgement and integrity. Do you not think voters care about those?
    The cake myth has done a lot of heavy lifting . This wasn’t what brought Johnson down . The final straw was the Pincher affair . Starmer for all his faults isn’t in the same league as Johnson.
    Sacking Robbins comes quite close.
    You can argue it’s the same broad category (judgement, patronage, what did he know and when), so in that sense it has a similar “shape”.

    But it doesn’t have the same weight or clarity as Partygate.

    That cut through because it combined rule-breaking by those making the rules with direct personal impact and a very simple narrative. This is more procedural and second-order.

    So it may “smell” a bit similar to people already inclined that way, but it’s not the same kind of issue politically, which is why it’s not landing in the same way.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,648
    Has Brexian gone? Where? When? Why?


    Not banished to ConHome, I hope. He was bad, but that would be extreme.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,835
    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2046979561666011137

    Today at PMQs, Keir Starmer selectively quoted Olly Robbins’ evidence at the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.

    Starmer said on Mandelson’s vetting: "no pressure existed whatsoever in relation to this case".

    But Robbins’ own written evidence to the Committee talks of an “atmosphere of pressure" from No10.

    On Monday, Robbins told the Committee: "Throughout January, honestly, my office and the Foreign Secretary’s office were under constant pressure. There was an atmosphere of constant chasing".

    Starmer was therefore wrong to say that "no pressure existed whatsoever".

    He must correct the record immediately.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629

    Has Brexian gone? Where? When? Why?


    Not banished to ConHome, I hope. He was bad, but that would be extreme.

    He said Adios the other night when being accused of homophobia...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,553

    Jennie Formby defects to the Greens

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/2046952999809933463

    Thoughts and prayers for the Green Tories of North Herefordshire.
    None of this would be happening if Corbyn and Sultana had not f-cked up the launch of their own party.
    There was a comment on here a few weeks back - the Greens are riven by internal contradictions and are a massively disparate coalition yet are able to put all this aside in the interests of winning. Your Party disagree internally on almost nothing visible to the outside world yet cannot manage to stay united for more than five minutes. A coalition of the disagreeable.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,352
    Cookie said:

    Jennie Formby defects to the Greens

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/2046952999809933463

    Thoughts and prayers for the Green Tories of North Herefordshire.
    None of this would be happening if Corbyn and Sultana had not f-cked up the launch of their own party.
    There was a comment on here a few weeks back - the Greens are riven by internal contradictions and are a massively disparate coalition yet are able to put all this aside in the interests of winning. Your Party disagree internally on almost nothing visible to the outside world yet cannot manage to stay united for more than five minutes. A coalition of the disagreeable.
    But if all these Corbynites join the Greens then they will bring their politics of continual falling out and splits and factions and before long the Green Party will be in turmoil.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,762
    viewcode said:

    ... introduced voluntary repatriation (Mahmood)...

    Apparently you're not allowed to criticise her (Mahmood) because if you do that's racist.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/04/21/shabana-mahmood-home-secretary-tells-white-liberals-f-off/

    She was heckled for being Reform-lite. So she said she wanted to taser and then deport Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch, Zack Polanski and Sir Ed Davey. She said claims if being Reform-lite were “just a way of delegitimising the point of view that I bring to the table”, which includes the "perfectly valid, legitimate views of millions of people in this country, including ethnic minorities in this country".

    Well, that told them.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    edited April 22
    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a curious statistic - probably variation but

    Week beginning on April 12, 2026: 429.80 ppm
    Weekly value from 1 year ago: 430.16 ppm

    Very rare the weekly value is below the previous year's CO2.

    Very interesting. My understanding is this is more common in April than any other month, because of variation in photosynthesis.

    CO2’s sawtooth curve peaks in boreal winter and then falls in boreal summer as the continents and oceans go green and absorb more from the atmosphere. In April there can be very pronounced year on year differences in seasonal progression in Eurasia and North America, so the speed of reduction varies. So your stat suggests we’ve had an earlier NH spring than last year.

    Still, would take a lot of interannual variation to wipe out the usual 2-3 ppm annual increase.

    ETA: ENSO can also have an effect but both last year and this have La Niña patterns (so far) so seems unlikely to have had much impact.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,760

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2046979561666011137

    Today at PMQs, Keir Starmer selectively quoted Olly Robbins’ evidence at the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.

    Starmer said on Mandelson’s vetting: "no pressure existed whatsoever in relation to this case".

    But Robbins’ own written evidence to the Committee talks of an “atmosphere of pressure" from No10.

    On Monday, Robbins told the Committee: "Throughout January, honestly, my office and the Foreign Secretary’s office were under constant pressure. There was an atmosphere of constant chasing".

    Starmer was therefore wrong to say that "no pressure existed whatsoever".

    He must correct the record immediately.

    She is still clutching at straws when their is an absolute whopper of an egregious act right in front of her*.

    * Sacking Robbins.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858
    edited April 22

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297

    A mistake. Obviously.
    Oh I don't know. They are getting a royal visit out of it.
    But when they say, “NO KINGS” it is surely implied that is other than Charles III?
    I expect most Democrats like most Canadians would on a forced choice prefer King Charles III as their head of state to Trump
    You are not suggesting we invade the US and install Charlie are you ?
    No but I expect if Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maine, New Jersey, Connecticut and New York, Minnesota and Illinois and California and Washington and Oregon and Hawaii were offered temporary membership of the Commonwealth realms until 2029 they would accept
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Foss said:

    Sky just ran their YG MRP for London, details should be online shortly
    Vote shares were

    Lab 26
    Grn 22
    Con 17
    LD 15
    Ref 14

    There's also a new Senedd MRP here. It has Labour on 13%.
    I've looked at the Senedd mRP link you provided. It's...awful for the legacy parties. Labour might be the junior partner in a PC-Lab coalition. The Conservatives won't have enough members for a group. The LDs will have one member.

    As for the newer ones, Reform will have a plurality at 37 (49 needed for a majority), Green rise from 0 to seven members, and Plaid will have 36.

    Only plausible majority solution is PC+Lab+Lib=36+12+1=49, assuming PC+Ref is implausible. PC+Lab =48 which would work for a while. Minority administrations by Ref or PC possible

    But the takeaway from this is Labour (nominal) losing 32 out of 44 members. That is as bad for Labour in Wales as the Scottish realignment in the 2010s. How do they recover from this?

    Olympus has fallen
    On the bright side for Labour, Plaid and the SNP will have to beg them for support to get power and legislation through and keep Reform out in Scotland and Wales as neither will win a majority. Indeed in Scotland the latest MiC poll has the SNP even failing to have a majority with the Greens
    Neither will 'beg' labour for support

    Plaid has made it clear they will govern as a minority government if necessary

    You do not seem to understand how toxic labour are in Wales
    But nowhere near as toxic the Tories if that poll is correct.
    Conservatives in Wales are going to have a bad night but nothing like labour who have been in power since devolution and are heading to fringe party status

    This feels like labour's surrender to SNP in Scotland from which they have not recovered
    As you say Labour have been in power since devolution and every party eventually runs out of steam. They are also suffering from the mid-term blues that affects just about every government. What is the Tories excuse for their performance?
    Long Johnson.
    You must mention Boris around ten times every day

    It does seem a smidgeon excessive
    Nowhere near as many times as you mention Skyr. Although during these days of Starmer jeopardy that is perfectly acceptable.

    Anyway, you don't like me posting at all so why not make like the a good right winger and plant some flags on me .
    It's okay Pete, they hate me too.
    Don't be silly

    Disagreeing about politics is the DNA of this site but hate should have no part in it
    Hating specific left and Centist posters is part of the fun of the site from both sides of the coin. It's a Tory site so that is fair enough. No one has come around to beat the c**p out of me yet. So all is good.

    It looks like we have seen the back of Brixian, so one down several to go.
    I think you are somewhat deluded. I see no evidence that PB, in its current iteration, is a Tory site. It might once have been. And I don't think many on here actively hate other posters, they perhaps strongly disagree and/or think them insane, but hate is remarkably absent from PB. It is one of the best places on the internet in that regard.
    +1

    It’s reasonable to hate on SeanT, since he’s an ignorant racist trolling twat, but otherwise, this site is an exemplar of what people hoped for from the internet, before it all started to go bandy a decade or so back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    Jennie Formby defects to the Greens

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/2046952999809933463

    Corbyn's General Secretary, I expect more a blow to Corbyn she did not join Your Party than SKS who will say good riddance
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566
    Liam Rosenior sacked.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,378
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297

    A mistake. Obviously.
    Oh I don't know. They are getting a royal visit out of it.
    But when they say, “NO KINGS” it is surely implied that is other than Charles III?
    I expect most Democrats like most Canadians would on a forced choice prefer King Charles III as their head of state to Trump
    You are not suggesting we invade the US and install Charlie are you ?
    No but I expect if Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maine, New Jersey, Connecticut and New York, Minnesota and Illinois and California and Washington and Oregon and Hawaii were offered temporary membership of the Commonwealth realms until 2029 they would accept
    There might be few south-eastern seaboard states too. Be fun to have Trumpistan reduced to the fly-over states.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,339
    Lobular breast cancer and the Moonshot campaign was raised at PMQs today.

    Peter Fortune
    (Bromley and Biggin Hill) (Con)
    Today, vigils are being held across Westminster for the 22 women who are diagnosed with lobular breast cancer every day, and I think we are privileged to say that some of those extraordinarily brave women are in the Gallery this afternoon. When I raised this issue with the Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, she promised to take action and not just commit words, so will the Prime Minister today commit to the Lobular Moon Shot Project’s plan to fund lobular breast cancer?

    The Prime Minister
    I thank the hon. Gentleman for drawing the attention of the House to the vigils and the campaign, and I acknowledge those who are here in the Gallery today. I will make sure that this is looked at to see what further we can do, and that any relevant meetings are set up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,378

    Liam Rosenior sacked.

    5 losses from 5 is a good reason.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,104

    Has Brexian gone? Where? When? Why?


    Not banished to ConHome, I hope. He was bad, but that would be extreme.

    A flounce.

    Hope he returns. Ignoring the tedious partisan shite his other stuff on Brum and the like was great.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566
    Nigel Farage better pipe down on vetting failures

    One of Reform’s candidates is Ben Rowe, who is standing in the Ham ward of Plymouth. He urged protesters throwing bricks at police defending a mosque to “get rid of that filthy building” during the 2024 Southport riots.

    Commenting beneath a YouTube video in February, Rowe accused “the Jews” of “creating division by forcing other races on our societies”. He elsewhere described immigrants to the UK “breeding like rats”, posted blackface memes and labelled Islam “a cancer”.

    Nathaniel Menday, standing for Reform in Woodhouse, Sheffield, has called himself an “ethno-nationalist” and encouraged the use of white supremacist symbols. Last October, he asked a fellow Sheffield United fan to add a sonnenrad “sun wheel” emblem to a flag — a symbol widely used by neo-Nazis.

    In January 2024, he shared a picture of Berlin’s Olympiastadion and wrote: “Whichever group of people built this must have been real visionaries!” The stadium was built by Nazi Germany to host the 1936 Olympics and designed by Albert Speer, the munitions minister who was convicted at the Nuremberg trials of crimes against humanity.

    In 2023, Menday suggested “Jewish people in the West” were responsible for the antisemitism they were suffering because they “overwhelmingly favour open borders”. He added: “Sow the wind reap the whirlwind.”...

    ...Reform candidates have also shared conspiracy theories about the Covid pandemic and American politics.

    Rowe reposted content that suggested Covid had a “Hebrew” source, while Axel Tye, standing for Reform in Penshaw & Shiney Row, Sunderland, said: “Stop covid in it’s [sic] tracks in two simple steps. 1. Delete the app. 2. Stop getting tested.”

    Trevor Jones, a Reform candidate for Bolton North East, said he was “not buying another convenient virus just before Christmas” in November 2021.

    He also shared posts calling the former US president Joe Biden “Bin Biden”, accusing him of having “rigged elections” and urging a suspension in the rollout of 5G.

    Bev Watkins, standing in Wakefield for Reform, shared hoax content which warned against taking a “new” paracetamol which “contains ‘Machupo’ virus, considered one of the most dangerous viruses in the world, with a high mortality rate”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/reform-uk-local-election-candidates-vetting-sjq0g0lj5
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,129

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2046979561666011137

    Today at PMQs, Keir Starmer selectively quoted Olly Robbins’ evidence at the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.

    Starmer said on Mandelson’s vetting: "no pressure existed whatsoever in relation to this case".

    But Robbins’ own written evidence to the Committee talks of an “atmosphere of pressure" from No10.

    On Monday, Robbins told the Committee: "Throughout January, honestly, my office and the Foreign Secretary’s office were under constant pressure. There was an atmosphere of constant chasing".

    Starmer was therefore wrong to say that "no pressure existed whatsoever".

    He must correct the record immediately.

    She is still clutching at straws when their is an absolute whopper of an egregious act right in front of her*.

    * Sacking Robbins.
    I do not agree

    Starmer contradicted Robbins testimony to Thornberry
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860
    The thing about surveys like this is...

    Most sensible people don't consume very much news.

    I once saw it suggested that Political Operative Bootcamp should include a week of only getting news from the bulletins on a mainstream music station. You're up to date in two minutes, of which a third is an Ofcom-mandated local story and a third is showbiz.

    There's a good reason that a lot of stories fail to cut through.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,104
    Sweeney74 said:

    Has Brexian gone? Where? When? Why?


    Not banished to ConHome, I hope. He was bad, but that would be extreme.

    He said Adios the other night when being accused of homophobia...
    Yeah, I doubt he’s homophobic in any way, shape or form. He was just saying how he thinks the public saw Mandelson.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,378

    Has Brexian gone? Where? When? Why?


    Not banished to ConHome, I hope. He was bad, but that would be extreme.

    A Birmingham City fan knows when they are running on pure optimism....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,421
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Judge Clarence Thomas giving a lecture at the University of Texas on April 15th on his view of the US Declaration of Independence:

    https://youtu.be/iXijcySC0ZU?t=297

    A mistake. Obviously.
    Oh I don't know. They are getting a royal visit out of it.
    But when they say, “NO KINGS” it is surely implied that is other than Charles III?
    I expect most Democrats like most Canadians would on a forced choice prefer King Charles III as their head of state to Trump
    You are not suggesting we invade the US and install Charlie are you ?
    No but I expect if Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maine, New Jersey, Connecticut and New York, Minnesota and Illinois and California and Washington and Oregon and Hawaii were offered temporary membership of the Commonwealth realms until 2029 they would accept
    Hawaii was a British protectorate (or similar) until a group of American 'colonists' managed to swing the then ruling group to prefer the USA.

    If it had stayed British the 1941-45 Pacific War might not have happened.

    Of course the Americans would then have stayed neutral in the Anti-Nazi War of 1939-45.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,104

    Has Brexian gone? Where? When? Why?


    Not banished to ConHome, I hope. He was bad, but that would be extreme.

    A Birmingham City fan knows when they are running on pure optimism....
    I can assure you as a Blues fan of over 50 years standing optimism is something we rarely ever have.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376

    Liam Rosenior sacked.

    Bah, just in time for a Chelsea bounce to wreck the weekend
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566

    Liam Rosenior sacked.

    Bah, just in time for a Chelsea bounce to wreck the weekend
    Oh God, not a Dirty Leeds fan.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,378

    Nigel Farage better pipe down on vetting failures

    One of Reform’s candidates is Ben Rowe, who is standing in the Ham ward of Plymouth. He urged protesters throwing bricks at police defending a mosque to “get rid of that filthy building” during the 2024 Southport riots.

    Commenting beneath a YouTube video in February, Rowe accused “the Jews” of “creating division by forcing other races on our societies”. He elsewhere described immigrants to the UK “breeding like rats”, posted blackface memes and labelled Islam “a cancer”.

    Nathaniel Menday, standing for Reform in Woodhouse, Sheffield, has called himself an “ethno-nationalist” and encouraged the use of white supremacist symbols. Last October, he asked a fellow Sheffield United fan to add a sonnenrad “sun wheel” emblem to a flag — a symbol widely used by neo-Nazis.

    In January 2024, he shared a picture of Berlin’s Olympiastadion and wrote: “Whichever group of people built this must have been real visionaries!” The stadium was built by Nazi Germany to host the 1936 Olympics and designed by Albert Speer, the munitions minister who was convicted at the Nuremberg trials of crimes against humanity.

    In 2023, Menday suggested “Jewish people in the West” were responsible for the antisemitism they were suffering because they “overwhelmingly favour open borders”. He added: “Sow the wind reap the whirlwind.”...

    ...Reform candidates have also shared conspiracy theories about the Covid pandemic and American politics.

    Rowe reposted content that suggested Covid had a “Hebrew” source, while Axel Tye, standing for Reform in Penshaw & Shiney Row, Sunderland, said: “Stop covid in it’s [sic] tracks in two simple steps. 1. Delete the app. 2. Stop getting tested.”

    Trevor Jones, a Reform candidate for Bolton North East, said he was “not buying another convenient virus just before Christmas” in November 2021.

    He also shared posts calling the former US president Joe Biden “Bin Biden”, accusing him of having “rigged elections” and urging a suspension in the rollout of 5G.

    Bev Watkins, standing in Wakefield for Reform, shared hoax content which warned against taking a “new” paracetamol which “contains ‘Machupo’ virus, considered one of the most dangerous viruses in the world, with a high mortality rate”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/reform-uk-local-election-candidates-vetting-sjq0g0lj5

    The worry are those not dumb enough to pipe up on social media, but still plenty dumb enough to hold these and similarr views.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376

    Liam Rosenior sacked.

    Bah, just in time for a Chelsea bounce to wreck the weekend
    Oh God, not a Dirty Leeds fan.
    I thought you knew that Eagles.
    MOT
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,835
    https://x.com/BBCNewsnight/status/2046981882974204246

    “This situation is going to really damage trust between officials and ministers”

    Ex-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reacts to the Government’s handing of the Peter Mandelson vetting row: “We need our government to govern and when it’s dealing with this, that’s what it’s not doing.”
This discussion has been closed.