The politics of oil – politicalbetting.com
The politics of oil – politicalbetting.com
Now, the two charts are the initial conditions. The reaction will change who loses out. Already tankers inbound to Western countries are being diverted as Asian countries bid more for their cargos.
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I wonder where the Guardian got this idea?
Feels like we've been on the road to Hell in a handcart for the past 10 years. Oh for the Blair years ;-)
In a further sign of the UK’s shifting constitutional politics, Scotland’s first minister, John Swinney, has tentatively allied himself with Sinn Féin’s deputy leader, Michelle O’Neill, the first minister of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government – an alignment that was previously politically unthinkable.
So if I have understood the charts correctly, crudely (no pun intended) in this country this starts to have a dramatic impact on air travel at the end of the week and knock on effects on everything else after that?
Can't think why.
Good Growth Foundation, new boys with the BPC have issued their second poll this morning. Little late releasing as f/w ended 1 April
Ref 27 (-1)
Lab 20 (=)
Con 19 (-1)
Grn 15 (+3)
LD 12 (=)
SNP 2 (-1)
PC 1 (=)
Oth 4 (+1)
Or Trump can TACO. We can only all wait and hope.
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/05/nx-s1-5770205/will-hungarys-far-right-leader-viktor-orban-be-voted-out-of-power
But we can live in hope .
https://bsky.app/profile/chriso-wiki.bsky.social/post/3miqdf2v6i52w
And consider this. China has been buying influence for a decade or 2. Outright bribes, in many cases.
What will they accept? Damage to their economy, or demanding what they need at less than the market price?
Local garage diesel now at £1.94
Which means that deliveries from other sources will start failing to come here.
Who has the most money, out of the U.K. and China?
Who has the most “pull”?
Hegseth: "Shot down on a Friday -- Good Friday -- hidden in a cave, a crevice, all of Saturday. And rescued on Sunday. Flown out of Iran as the sun was rising on Easter. God is good."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2041208634076516416?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
The spending plans of a super PAC focused on the Republicans retaining the Senate. What it shows is that despite claiming to be aggressive they are pouring money into defence:
$15 million in Alaska
$44 million in Georgia
$29 million in Iowa
$42 million in Maine
$45 million in Michigan
$17 million in New Hampshire
$71 million in North Carolina
$79 million in Ohio
$79m for Ohio? A State that Trump won by double digits? Their internal polling must be at least as bad as the published material.
Pretty sure we wouldn’t be seeing this war if we were closer to the mid-terms !
Good management is important for good healthcare. We’re in the middle of an AI revolution, for example. Who is going to work out which products are safe and efficacious and how best to integrate them into current service? It’s far more efficient to give that problem to a small team of experts rather than just dumping the problem on frontline staff.
That said, there are issues with the structures of the NHS. Too much is unnecessarily devolved to a local level. The internal market discourages cooperation, while structures generally encourage cost shifting. Every hospital does things in a slightly different way.
Much discussion of the effect of Trump on Europe and NATO but the Asian earthquake might be even bigger.
Horrible man
I am supportive of continued exploration and extraction in the North Sea as a form of import substitution, but the real need is renewables.
The 60% of Yank shipping/heating oil is interesting - presumably one reason Chump wanted Venezuela back in the Empire.
I think the one things missing on oil are the stock levels, where if I understand it, richer Asian countries (incl. China) have 6-8 months, Europe has 3 months, and the USA has about 6 weeks.
The legal terms for Co-pilot explicitly call it a toy not for business use and yet that’s how MS sells it
I paid £1.84 last night. ASDA.
https://bsky.app/profile/chriso-wiki.bsky.social/post/3miqdgkv4uo2w
The North Sea from this point is about not throwing away tax yield in the medium/long term.
Slightly nervous about my holiday there in August.
I think its fair to say that the election of Trump by the US has proven to be somewhat suboptimal.
https://www.wightlink.co.uk/facilities/ferries/victoria-of-wight
(Is the fall in UK stocks another Brexit benefit, since 90 days old stock was a requirement of EU law !)
From what I can see five moderately useful reasons to open new oil fields:
1. Maintains an asset that would otherwise permanently disappear
2. Provides the UK with an exportable product
3. Continues employment
4. A degree of energy security
5. North Sea oil is extracted to higher environmental standards than elsewhere.
But if renewables and electrification weren't the absolute focus before, they should be now.
Arrive and fill up same day, fill up day before leaving, so Fri sat pinch points.
Off to Lichfield for 5 days but drove right in and tanked up last night. No supply issues
(It looks quite updated since the broad numbers I heard back before started - closed on 28 Feb.)
If either Farage or Kemi becomes PM after the next general then it will be full speed ‘drill baby drill’ for oil in the North Sea
Removing the drilling ban and reducing the tax burden is not going to get new exploration wells drilled in the next few months, not least because of the shortage of rigs.
What it does do is signal to the industry that their platforms are once again viable and it is worth drilling more development wells from them. This could be done and have oil or gas flowing in far less than 6 months. There are wells planned, ready to drill but they are not being drilled because the companies know that without the further exploration in the medium term the platforms become unviable, especially with electrification looming. So they are not interested in drilling more wells, spending tens of millions of pounds when they know they are going to be shutting down the platforms and plugging the wells in the near future.
You can't extract stuff that's not there. Even on the most optimistic reading of the geology, there's not much oil and gas left.
The govt will need more taxes given the slowing of the economy and ILR being granted to the Boriswave imminently.
I get that it would be more difficult and expensive to open them in the future due to the need to rebuild expertise and retool, but they'll still be there. The oil's not going to evaporate or seep away. On the contrary, exploiting them is what will make them permanently disappear, and then we'll be completely dependent on foreign sources.
I'd have thought the best approach would be to carefully eke out our remaining resources, maintaining the minimum flow needed for technical reasons and to maintain expertise. That way we'll still have some left when we really need it in the future for applications that are difficult to replace with alternatives.
But when challenging such a presumption, the backstop kicks in such is the value of having certain people in place.
One is to change the processes, so that fewer staff are needed because there is less admin work. The other is to turn the doctors, academics, teachers etc into expensive self-admin staff. Guess which one we have had most of.
Try Norway !
I once use used that to delete a bank's compliance database latest version rather than create another one to work on.
Two generations ago offices were filled with secretaries and typists, now they're not.
Admin has become both easier for people to do themselves and also more technical, so requiring the person with the specialised knowledge to complete it.
I have said this before, but I started to look at polls this way in 2015, and it indicated that a Tory majority was the value bet, but I was so caught up in the media certainty that it would be NOM that I neither tipped nor backed it
Changing this would upset the Foreigner Office, and the many people whose targets include “CO2 reduction”
In the summer they'll lose more by evaporation than going to top up.
It's like sugar and bog roll hoarders.
A sweetener or spoonful of honey and a supply of the Daily Mail or Express or Telegraph if you have IBS are just as good.
Nice of them to admit their own article is hysterical halfway through.
If you plug a well and remove the production facilities - which is a legal requirement for North Sea “abandonment”, you are looking at the full cost to refill and install production facilities.
IIRC the legalities of abandonment mean that anything other that plugging and removal of the rigs is not allowed.
So mothballing platforms in place is not allowed. Low rate production would be uneconomic…
- Lots of processes, while retaining the old ones. This means that existing rice bowls don’t get broken. And duplication of input is guaranteed.
- Turn the people who actually do the work into admin staff, as you say.
Here's a 3rd outing for a new Poll
Budget airlines scuppered those plans.
Hypocrisy on stilts
However, I agree it cannot be universal but do not expect Starmer not to be reminded of his past
Protestant dragons have a shorter left leg. Catholic dragons the right leg. Hence “Which foot dae kick with?”
Even on your figures 200 miles a month is approx 7 miles a day which puts your claim in context
More nonsense
I am mentally preparing myself for the 10 hour Victoria to Paris Flixbus coach experience. Unless I can get a £35 ticket on Eurostar Snap, which is unlikely in the summer.