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Labour leads Reform by 8% (on preferred choice) – politicalbetting.com

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  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,856
    nico67 said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Just an aside to add to the comments earlier regarding Badenoch.

    I hadn't seen the pictures of her on the oil rig earlier in the week., Having now seen it I am rather amused.

    The rig in question - The Well-Safe Protector - is no longer a drilling rig. It is one of three rigs owned by Well-Safe and converted specifically to do well abandonments.

    Shame her advisors didn't do their research.

    To be fair - 99.9% of people looking at the pictures wouldnt know the difference between a survey rig and a production platform.
    Very true but it does leave her open to some ridicule if and when someone points it out.
    Didn’t the Wellsafe Chairman donate £250,000 to the Tory party ?

    So no conflict of interest there ……
    It has been pointed out by a number of tabloids

    I make the point it was in dry dick, was called a liar. The fact it's what it is makes it even. More of a Kemi faux pa's.

    A Tory donor visit to Aberdeen

    A Tory donir visit the next day to fill in a pot hole in a new JCB

    Political prostitution

    The one thing the Tories are world class at.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 71,031
    MattW said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    That's an important moment. By Trump and Hegseth's and the current USA's declared ethical values, Might is Right, and the Geneva Conventiona by implication have no meaning.
    For the sake of the us servicemen let us hope that Iranians don't take that view. And an alive hostage is going to be worth a hell of a lot in the eventual diplomatic stuff.

    It is only twitter though so far.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,846
    Brixian59 said:

    Just an aside to add to the comments earlier regarding Badenoch.

    I hadn't seen the pictures of her on the oil rig earlier in the week., Having now seen it I am rather amused.

    The rig in question - The Well-Safe Protector - is no longer a drilling rig. It is one of three rigs owned by Well-Safe and converted specifically to do well abandonments.

    Shame her advisors didn't do their research.

    Just an aside to add to the comments earlier regarding Badenoch.

    I hadn't seen the pictures of her on the oil rig earlier in the week., Having now seen it I am rather amused.

    The rig in question - The Well-Safe Protector - is no longer a drilling rig. It is one of three rigs owned by Well-Safe and converted specifically to do well abandonments.

    Shame her advisors didn't do their research.

    Small tremor between Colwyn Bay and Conway..



    Conwy
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 62,104

    Sky suggesting the US jet shows US in Europe on it's tailfin probably based at Lakenheath

    So it was on a defensive bombing mission?

    As opposed to

    - an offensive bombing mission
    - a quite rude bombing mission
    - an in-your-face-in-a-mildly-confrontational-way bombing mission

    etc
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 71,134
    Brixian59 said:

    nico67 said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Just an aside to add to the comments earlier regarding Badenoch.

    I hadn't seen the pictures of her on the oil rig earlier in the week., Having now seen it I am rather amused.

    The rig in question - The Well-Safe Protector - is no longer a drilling rig. It is one of three rigs owned by Well-Safe and converted specifically to do well abandonments.

    Shame her advisors didn't do their research.

    To be fair - 99.9% of people looking at the pictures wouldnt know the difference between a survey rig and a production platform.
    Very true but it does leave her open to some ridicule if and when someone points it out.
    Didn’t the Wellsafe Chairman donate £250,000 to the Tory party ?

    So no conflict of interest there ……
    It has been pointed out by a number of tabloids

    I make the point it was in dry dick, was called a liar. The fact it's what it is makes it even. More of a Kemi faux pa's.

    A Tory donor visit to Aberdeen

    A Tory donir visit the next day to fill in a pot hole in a new JCB

    Political prostitution

    The one thing the Tories are world class at.
    Long may Kemi keep winding you up alongside her fellow female mps
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,443
    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.
    Are you kidding? They are fucked with a capital فـ
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 71,134
    edited 3:12PM

    Brixian59 said:

    Just an aside to add to the comments earlier regarding Badenoch.

    I hadn't seen the pictures of her on the oil rig earlier in the week., Having now seen it I am rather amused.

    The rig in question - The Well-Safe Protector - is no longer a drilling rig. It is one of three rigs owned by Well-Safe and converted specifically to do well abandonments.

    Shame her advisors didn't do their research.

    Just an aside to add to the comments earlier regarding Badenoch.

    I hadn't seen the pictures of her on the oil rig earlier in the week., Having now seen it I am rather amused.

    The rig in question - The Well-Safe Protector - is no longer a drilling rig. It is one of three rigs owned by Well-Safe and converted specifically to do well abandonments.

    Shame her advisors didn't do their research.

    Small tremor between Colwyn Bay and Conway..



    Conwy
    Llandudno but no tremor

    And yes @Brixian59 cannot spell properly including Conwy

    @Richard_Tyndall made a fair point
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,462
    Brixian59 said:

    nico67 said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Just an aside to add to the comments earlier regarding Badenoch.

    I hadn't seen the pictures of her on the oil rig earlier in the week., Having now seen it I am rather amused.

    The rig in question - The Well-Safe Protector - is no longer a drilling rig. It is one of three rigs owned by Well-Safe and converted specifically to do well abandonments.

    Shame her advisors didn't do their research.

    To be fair - 99.9% of people looking at the pictures wouldnt know the difference between a survey rig and a production platform.
    Very true but it does leave her open to some ridicule if and when someone points it out.
    Didn’t the Wellsafe Chairman donate £250,000 to the Tory party ?

    So no conflict of interest there ……
    It has been pointed out by a number of tabloids

    I make the point it was in dry dick, was called a liar. The fact it's what it is makes it even. More of a Kemi faux pa's.

    A Tory donor visit to Aberdeen

    A Tory donir visit the next day to fill in a pot hole in a new JCB

    Political prostitution

    The one thing the Tories are world class at.
    Sounds painful....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,114
    @alexjungle.bsky.social‬

    A French general just looked at Trump’s plan to build a runway inside Iran to fly out uranium under active bombing.
    His response: “American officials should stop snorting cocaine between meetings.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/alexjungle.bsky.social/post/3milmkw4ens23
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,492
    I’m sure the US pilots if they are caught will be well looked after by the Iranians .

    Certainly they’ll view them as leverage moving forward.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,775
    Have Keirmit and Miss Piggybanks come up with any concrete proposal other than the cheapest petrol station app?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,194
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I’m struck by a poignant juxta this GF morning. Artemis breaks the Earth’s orbit and heads for the dark side of the moon. Intention: the furthering of human knowledge. Bombs rain down in the Middle East. Intention: destroying people and things. A noble uplifting deployment of our technological prowess right alongside its very opposite. You look at the first and you wonder at how far we have come. You look at the second, soundtracked by the bloodthirsty inanities of Trump and Hegseth, and you realize we’ve hardly evolved at all. Take your choice. A suitable muse for Easter, I think.

    The Apollo moon program occurred alongside wars in Vietnam and the Middle East and a near nuclear exchange between China and the Soviet Union.
    Indeed. I bet even in the earliest times you'd find men sharpening stones to cut meat and feed the multitude whilst others used theirs to bash people on the head. It's a hardy perennial.
    Have to fight over the watering hole:

    https://youtu.be/ypEaGQb6dJk?t=473
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,084

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of @Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,114
    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy: "Russian losses this March have reached their highest level since the start of the war: our drone strikes alone resulted in 33,988 Russian servicemembers killed or seriously wounded, while artillery and other strikes eliminated another 1,363 Russian occupiers."
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,194
    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy: "Russian losses this March have reached their highest level since the start of the war: our drone strikes alone resulted in 33,988 Russian servicemembers killed or seriously wounded, while artillery and other strikes eliminated another 1,363 Russian occupiers."

    I remember being told here a couple of years ago that it was an artillery war and that drones were a sideshow.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,876
    Dura_Ace said:

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.
    Are you kidding? They are fucked with a capital فـ
    If we get a crane in the middle of Tehran scenario then... BRACE
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,734
    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,876
    edited 3:25PM
    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,624
    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    So you were deeply offended by the muslim one too, right?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,194
    Scott_xP said:

    @alexjungle.bsky.social‬

    A French general just looked at Trump’s plan to build a runway inside Iran to fly out uranium under active bombing.
    His response: “American officials should stop snorting cocaine between meetings.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/alexjungle.bsky.social/post/3milmkw4ens23

    The USA has a history of unfeasibly convoluted plans against Iran:

    The plan was designed so all four main services of the Department of Defense would have a part: Army, Navy, Air Force and the Marine Corps. It was planned that helicopters and C-130 aircraft, following different routes, would rendezvous on a salt flat (code-named Desert One) 200 miles (320 km) southeast of Tehran. Here the helicopters would refuel from the C-130s and pick up the combat troops who had flown in on the C-130 transports. The helicopters would then transport the troops to a mountain location (Desert Two) closer to Tehran, from which the rescue raid would be launched into the city the following night. The operation was further to be supported by an in-country CIA team. On completion of the raid, hostages were to be taken to a captured Tehran airport from where they were to be flown to Egypt.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Claw#Planning_and_preparation
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,876
    edited 3:26PM

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.

    That it would show up the Israelis and Americans as malignant, violent thugs is a nice bonus.
    Regardless of your feelings on the war and the US and Israel, it’s ridiculous to pretend the Iranian ruling regime aren’t violent thugs too.
    I didn't do that, did I?

    In fact I made that very point.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,166
    edited 3:26PM

    Have Keirmit and Miss Piggybanks come up with any concrete proposal other than the cheapest petrol station app?

    What else can they do - sod all point reducing the tax when you want / need to reduce demand as much as possible..
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,131
    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    It is amazing how this annual celebration of chocolate shaped into eggs and flavoured hot cross buns has been taken over by weird religious ideas. Modern life, eh?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,443
    Eabhal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.
    Are you kidding? They are fucked with a capital فـ
    If we get a crane in the middle of Tehran scenario then... BRACE
    The very least they can expect is an exceptionally thorough pasting from whatever militia/IRGC unit scoops them up.

    Kill a local taxi driver, take his car and then full send to the Iraqi border would be my plan.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 71,134

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.

    That it would show up the Israelis and Americans as malignant, violent thugs is a nice bonus.
    Regardless of your feelings on the war and the US and Israel, it’s ridiculous to pretend the Iranian ruling regime aren’t violent thugs too.
    Well said
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,734
    carnforth said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    So you were deeply offended by the muslim one too, right?
    No, I'm joking. I don't care. I was just making a silly point.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 62,104

    Scott_xP said:

    @alexjungle.bsky.social‬

    A French general just looked at Trump’s plan to build a runway inside Iran to fly out uranium under active bombing.
    His response: “American officials should stop snorting cocaine between meetings.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/alexjungle.bsky.social/post/3milmkw4ens23

    The USA has a history of unfeasibly convoluted plans against Iran:

    The plan was designed so all four main services of the Department of Defense would have a part: Army, Navy, Air Force and the Marine Corps. It was planned that helicopters and C-130 aircraft, following different routes, would rendezvous on a salt flat (code-named Desert One) 200 miles (320 km) southeast of Tehran. Here the helicopters would refuel from the C-130s and pick up the combat troops who had flown in on the C-130 transports. The helicopters would then transport the troops to a mountain location (Desert Two) closer to Tehran, from which the rescue raid would be launched into the city the following night. The operation was further to be supported by an in-country CIA team. On completion of the raid, hostages were to be taken to a captured Tehran airport from where they were to be flown to Egypt.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Claw#Planning_and_preparation
    Which then led to Credible Sport - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSFjhWw4DNo

    A C130 that was modified to near VSTOL
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,303
    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    Must be the "ghastly Sadiq Khan attempting dominance"

    According to Nigel Farage. Personally I think the ghastly one is someone else.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,919
    edited 3:32PM

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    It is amazing how this annual celebration of chocolate shaped into eggs and flavoured hot cross buns has been taken over by weird religious ideas. Modern life, eh?
    I mean it's objectively just reverted back to being a national spring festival that also has religious meaning for a Christian minority.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,775
    eek said:

    Have Keirmit and Miss Piggybanks come up with any concrete proposal other than the cheapest petrol station app?

    What else can they do - sod all point reducing the tax when you want / need to reduce demand as much as possible..
    Mili-Beaker has approved North Sea drilling
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,624
    CatMan said:

    carnforth said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    So you were deeply offended by the muslim one too, right?
    No, I'm joking. I don't care. I was just making a silly point.
    You can see how I may have been waylaid by the whole "I'm not kidding" part :smile:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,114
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    One of the crew members of the US F-15E jet downed in Iran has been successfully rescued, Channel 12 reports.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,093
    Ratters said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    It is amazing how this annual celebration of chocolate shaped into eggs and flavoured hot cross buns has been taken over by weird religious ideas. Modern life, eh?
    I mean it's objectively just reverted back to being a national spring festival that also has religious meaning for a Christian minority.
    The first day of the County Championship, you mean?

    [Looks outside]

    What were they thinking?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,852
    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    One question I would like answered on North Sea oil. Would any public subsidy be involved?

    No.
    They do get tax relief for various activities, which a lot of people describe as subsidy, even if it's really not.
    If a particular sector gets preferential tax treatment it absolutely is a subsidy. I appreciate the general public thinks of direct grants only, but there are loads of ways government can support a sector other than just cash transfers.
    If a particular sector is generating considerable net tax revenue, then for me at least it seems inaccurate to call it subsidised.

    Some of its activities (exploration at one end, and remediation at the other) are subsidised by the tax relief. For public benefit.
    Preferential tax relief counts as a subsidy under WTO definitions.
    That is a red herring; they also get taxed at far higher rates than other sectors.
    As long as Hormuz stays closed, yes. The expectation at least prior to this was North Sea revenues would essentially disappear over the next five years. There's no reason for believing authorising new licences will materially add to revenue in the medium term.

    We seem to have gone from a £25 billion bonanza and fuel bills in pennies to will it need subsidy in a few dozen comments but such are the byways of PB.com.

    Anyhow the discussion at that moment was well as my observation were about definitions. Preferential tax treatment is a subsidy as far as WTO is concerned. A subsidy doesn't require you to hand over cash

    The oil price isn't dependent on cost of production; it's a global market determined by supply and demand.
    Subsidies/tax breaks shouldn't bother the WTO in the slightest here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,084
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,030
    Scott_xP said:

    US military prisoners of war in Iranian jails is going to add somewhat to the headache.

    Remember when TV entertainer and inexplicably Secretary of Defense/War/whatevs Pete Hegseth said "No quarter given..."

    I wonder how that is going to work out?

    Public executions? That's the sort of content he likes, right?
    Trump and Hegseth, being models of logicality, will scream blue murder about barbarism
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,775
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Even if we used no oil and gas for 'energy', we'd still need oil for plastics and pharmaceiticals, and (this is the big one) natural gas for nitrogen fertilizer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,462

    Ratters said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    It is amazing how this annual celebration of chocolate shaped into eggs and flavoured hot cross buns has been taken over by weird religious ideas. Modern life, eh?
    I mean it's objectively just reverted back to being a national spring festival that also has religious meaning for a Christian minority.
    The first day of the County Championship, you mean?

    [Looks outside]

    What were they thinking?
    May I ask for your evidence for this extraordinary and outrageous claim that the organisation responsible for the Hundred is capable of thinking?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,734
    carnforth said:

    CatMan said:

    carnforth said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    So you were deeply offended by the muslim one too, right?
    No, I'm joking. I don't care. I was just making a silly point.
    You can see how I may have been waylaid by the whole "I'm not kidding" part :smile:
    I should have put a comma in there, sorry!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,852

    kinabalu said:

    Breaking headline: "Trump says JD Vance is responsible for fraud in the US"

    I thought, wow that's a schism in the regime.

    But on investigation no, it's a big new job for the VP. He's now the Fraud Czar tasked with rooting out the misuse of taxpayer dollars by state officials outside Washington.

    As a matter of time management, and in order to get the most bang for the buck, he'll start by looking exclusively at fraud in Democrat run states.

    You'll like this one. Trump looking for JD Vance in the audience:

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/2039484894519108013

    Oh, JD. He’s lost weight. He got a little thinner. And I’m looking for a heavyset gentleman, and now I find a perfect — a perfect-looking specimen.
    Yond JD has a lean and hungry look. He thinks too much..
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,443
    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    One of the crew members of the US F-15E jet downed in Iran has been successfully rescued, Channel 12 reports.

    It'll soon be dark in the area. That will definitely favour the CSAR effort and the downed crew.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,775
    edited 3:46PM
    So I’ve done Keirmit, Miss Piggybanks, MiliBeaker and Ange-imal..

    Any suggestions for the rest of the Muppet Show running the country?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,846
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    It we will keep on burning Saudi oil and Norwegian and Qatari gas. As long as we have the demand, we should be fulfilling as much of it as possible from UK sources.

    And we are locking in demand for natural gas until 2050, thanks to the CCGT and Blue Hydrogen plants that DESNZ is supporting.

    I'm a broken record on this issue, but all it needs is EdM to see sense and I'll be able to shut up about it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,291
    edited 3:46PM
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Sadly they may be bright but they show an acute lack of common sense and logic. As I have said before using imported hydrocarbons instead of our own not only doesn't reduce carbon emmissions, it actually increases them. When we import LNG from the US, 1% of the total volume is lost on the journey over here due to evaporation. Same goes for importing LNG from anywhere else in the world.

    We spend £2 billion a year in tariffs and transport costs over and above the actual cost of the product to import gas from Norway and the US. We also import oil from places with far lower environmental standards than the UK.

    Put simply, your academicss are supporting more pollution., not less and are expecting the UK to pay for it as well.

    It is hypocritical and idiotic.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,194
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Many people are sufficiently distanced from the means of production (whether agriculture, energy or manufacturing) that they neither know nor care what the requirements of production are.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,624
    CatMan said:

    carnforth said:

    CatMan said:

    carnforth said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    So you were deeply offended by the muslim one too, right?
    No, I'm joking. I don't care. I was just making a silly point.
    You can see how I may have been waylaid by the whole "I'm not kidding" part :smile:
    I should have put a comma in there, sorry!
    Christ, and I'm sober. Oh dear.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,131

    So I’ve done Keirmit, Miss Piggybanks, MiliBeaker and Ange-imal..

    Any suggestions for more of the Muppet Show running the country

    The audience/electorate?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,239
    edited 3:46PM

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    It is amazing how this annual celebration of chocolate shaped into eggs and flavoured hot cross buns has been taken over by weird religious ideas. Modern life, eh?
    Good Friday is a day for Christians to reflect on the crucifixion. Easter Sunday is the day the secular can celebrate Easter eggs and bunnies and hot cross buns with Christians for whom it is also a day of celebration of the resurrection as well as the start of Spring
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,852

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.

    That it would show up the Israelis and Americans as malignant, violent thugs is a nice bonus.
    Regardless of your feelings on the war and the US and Israel, it’s ridiculous to pretend the Iranian ruling regime aren’t violent thugs too.
    They haven't stopped the execution of protestors.
    No one should be cheering either side, each of whom doesn't give a fuck about their civilians.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,775
    Are the bondage queens and the bondage kings running the Green Party going to find common ground other than “Israel bad”?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,852
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Even if we used no oil and gas for 'energy', we'd still need oil for plastics and pharmaceiticals, and (this is the big one) natural gas for nitrogen fertilizer.
    And the helium byproduct.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 71,031
    Today in Satire is Dead - Trump has just announced VD Vance will be a new FRAUD Czar - rooting out fraud across the country especially in Dem areas.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,239
    edited 3:52PM
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Quite an interesting piece from Lord Frost in the Telegraph.

    He's become a Roman Catholic, in a process which I think would bear comparison with Tony Blair's motivations. In the sense of Cardinal JH Newman, he is looking for something more comprehensive and 'fully orbed' than he has known before. Brits, especially High or liberal catholic Anglicans, can feel an attraction to the RC world which is almost magnetic in its feel.

    Britain is quietly awakening to full-fat supernatural Christianity
    I have turned to Rome and I am not alone in wanting to be part of an ethereal reality sustained by a creator God


    Full article link: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/82c46688e81c1311

    (Personally I think he is a little confused in some of the background he puts forward, and reacting more to his own perceptions eg about "woke", and not that well informed - but it is worth a read nonetheless. As is his habit he is on there replying to commenters at 10am ie now.)

    I've said if I were a Christian, I would choose to be a Catholic as confession would be perfect for me. Once a week I get the opportunity to brag about my sins, then all I have to do is say 100 Hail Marys and I'm forgiven.
    Russian Orthodoxy for me. I love the ancient icons and smoky mysticism and the singing can be epic. That said, I love English churches and cathedrals and the Anglican choral tradition is unexampled so ideally the two churches would fuse, just for me. Not much to ask

    I am getting more religious as I age. And it’s not just the greater proximity of death. It becomes evermore obvious, to me, that the universe is shaped with a purpose. Fuck knows what it is, but ineffability is part of the deal

    Yesterday I had a call from an old friend. He and his wife have joined a church (quite unexpectedly). I wonder if there is a subtle return to faith out there, even tho the data is disputed

    Happy Easter, PB
    Have you done your London Churches rabbit holes? Given you, I'm assuming you would visit one sometimes.

    St Dunstan-in-the-West on Fleet Street is a City Church with a real (Romanian Orthodox) iconostasis inside (they share the building), from St Antim Monastery in Bucharest, installed in 1966. They also have the oldest public clock in London from 1671, with Gog and Magog striking the hours, and the oldest outdoor public statue of Queen Elizabeth I.

    If I recommended a visit to one other City Church, it would be the Roman Catholic one of St Mary Moorfields (1791), which is almost camouflaged in a row of buildings on Eldon Street near Finsbury Circus, and is such a surprise to see the inside.
    https://maps.app.goo.gl/vrDMzvgm42krcGnCA

    Yes - happy Easter to all PB.

    Yes I love London churches. I know the first of the ones you mention but not the second. Will check, ta

    Hawksmoor is possibly my favourite. My heart leaps every time I see Christ Church Spitalfields, the concentrated power.

    For pure noom, however, St Bartholomew the Great is great. And personally St Sepulchre-without-Newgate has a special place. I went in there alone to pray on the first day of my rape trial at the Old Bailey across the road, like many Londoners for centuries before me. Because the Bailey was Newgate, of course
    Marcus Walker, the Vicar of St Bartholomew, is also one of the few staunch Tory vicars still in the C of E. As you say Newgate was round the corner, William Wallace, Wat Tyler and the Protestant martyrs were all executed at Smithfield round the corner.

    Christ Church Spitalfields is also worth a visit, my father did the accounts there for a few years before retiring and Florence and the Machine filmed a video there
    It was interesting Frosty's article being illustrated by Great St Barts, and the associated irony.

    Frost states that the "Quiet Revival" (such as it is which is something but nothing like the claims, which Frost recognises) is amongst Roman Catholics, Anglo-Catholics and Protestant evangelicals (which is a slightly strange category).

    Yet Great St Barts is a thriving theologically liberal *, and liturgically traditional, parish where one of the first same sex marriages was held between two Church of England priests in 2008 by the Rector Martin Dudley - illegally. But they also maintained St Barts the Less open throughout Covid for prayer which I surmise Frosty would approve.

    So his "it's the supernaturalists" claim somewhat collapses.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/a803b660da36bac3

    * Or he has come interesting category definitions, which is quite possible. He may not be differentiating between theology and style of worship, both of which can be liberal or traditionalist.
    Great St Barts may have been liberal under Dudley, it certainly now isn't under Walker who is fervently high Tory Anglo Catholic with traditional BCP services and no net zero or woke obsessed sermons either. It also certainly doesn't perform same sex marriages now either, though Walker did support PLF
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,131
    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    It is amazing how this annual celebration of chocolate shaped into eggs and flavoured hot cross buns has been taken over by weird religious ideas. Modern life, eh?
    Good Friday is a day for Christians to reflect on the crucifixion. Easter Sunday is the day the secular can celebrate Easter eggs and bunnies and hot cross buns with Christians for whom it is also a day of celebration of the resurrection as well as the start of Spring
    Judging by the stock in shops people start celebrating easter with eggs around 1st January and buns from valentines day, so not sure your rules are working or understood. Maybe you'll need to start funding state schools similarly to private ones if you want us to be so disciplined.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,846
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    You are right, the academics are wrong.

    I know plenty of academics. They are wrong some of the time too.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,093

    So I’ve done Keirmit, Miss Piggybanks, MiliBeaker and Ange-imal..

    Any suggestions for more of the Muppet Show running the country

    The audience/electorate?
    We're more like Waldorf and Statler.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,291
    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    One question I would like answered on North Sea oil. Would any public subsidy be involved?

    No.
    They do get tax relief for various activities, which a lot of people describe as subsidy, even if it's really not.
    If a particular sector gets preferential tax treatment it absolutely is a subsidy. I appreciate the general public thinks of direct grants only, but there are loads of ways government can support a sector other than just cash transfers.
    If a particular sector is generating considerable net tax revenue, then for me at least it seems inaccurate to call it subsidised.

    Some of its activities (exploration at one end, and remediation at the other) are subsidised by the tax relief. For public benefit.
    Preferential tax relief counts as a subsidy under WTO definitions.
    That is a red herring; they also get taxed at far higher rates than other sectors.
    As long as Hormuz stays closed, yes. The expectation at least prior to this was North Sea revenues would essentially disappear over the next five years. There's no reason for believing authorising new licences will materially add to revenue in the medium term.

    We seem to have gone from a £25 billion bonanza and fuel bills in pennies to will it need subsidy in a few dozen comments but such are the byways of PB.com.

    Anyhow the discussion at that moment was well as my observation were about definitions. Preferential tax treatment is a subsidy as far as WTO is concerned. A subsidy doesn't require you to hand over cash

    Except the UK oil and gas industry doesn't get a preferential tax treatment. Exactly the opposite. It gets a punitive tax treatment that doesn't apply to any other industry and whose main aim is to destroy the industry rather than to raise revenue. The only comp[arable tax regime I can think of is smoking.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,131

    Today in Satire is Dead - Trump has just announced VD Vance will be a new FRAUD Czar - rooting out fraud across the country especially in Dem areas.

    To be fair, the challenge would be a bit too easy for a VP if he was allowed to do it from the White House.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,462

    Today in Satire is Dead - Trump has just announced VD Vance will be a new FRAUD Czar - rooting out fraud across the country especially in Dem areas.

    He's been put in charge of all the administration's fraud and corruption in Dem areas?

    Sounds like a pretty full-time job. Is Trump planning to try and get rid of him? Can't sack a Veep although to be fair when's the law ever stopped him?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,846
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Even if we used no oil and gas for 'energy', we'd still need oil for plastics and pharmaceiticals, and (this is the big one) natural gas for nitrogen fertilizer.
    You can make ammonia using Green Hydrogen. Green Ammonia, it is imaginatively called.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,291

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Many people are sufficiently distanced from the means of production (whether agriculture, energy or manufacturing) that they neither know nor care what the requirements of production are.
    Similar to those who ask why we have to have factory farming when we can just buy meat at the supermarket
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,840
    Nigelb said:

    Not beating their rep for being Russian shills.

    Reform Senedd candidate blamed Nato for Ukraine war
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70dxwg0zq7o

    We need another list :smile: .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,850

    So I’ve done Keirmit, Miss Piggybanks, MiliBeaker and Ange-imal..

    Any suggestions for the rest of the Muppet Show running the country?

    Perhaps leave it there. We don't want too much of a good thing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 71,031
    Putin: "You should make the american army a lot more like the russian army"

    Trump: "Hey, that's a great idea."
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,303
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    One question I would like answered on North Sea oil. Would any public subsidy be involved?

    No.
    They do get tax relief for various activities, which a lot of people describe as subsidy, even if it's really not.
    If a particular sector gets preferential tax treatment it absolutely is a subsidy. I appreciate the general public thinks of direct grants only, but there are loads of ways government can support a sector other than just cash transfers.
    If a particular sector is generating considerable net tax revenue, then for me at least it seems inaccurate to call it subsidised.

    Some of its activities (exploration at one end, and remediation at the other) are subsidised by the tax relief. For public benefit.
    Preferential tax relief counts as a subsidy under WTO definitions.
    That is a red herring; they also get taxed at far higher rates than other sectors.
    As long as Hormuz stays closed, yes. The expectation at least prior to this was North Sea revenues would essentially disappear over the next five years. There's no reason for believing authorising new licences will materially add to revenue in the medium term.

    We seem to have gone from a £25 billion bonanza and fuel bills in pennies to will it need subsidy in a few dozen comments but such are the byways of PB.com.

    Anyhow the discussion at that moment was well as my observation were about definitions. Preferential tax treatment is a subsidy as far as WTO is concerned. A subsidy doesn't require you to hand over cash

    The oil price isn't dependent on cost of production; it's a global market determined by supply and demand.
    Subsidies/tax breaks shouldn't bother the WTO in the slightest here.
    Preferential tax treatment is a subsidy. Whether it's an illegal subsidy under WTO rules depends on the circumstances. WTO is nearly dead so it is mostly inconsequential. But if we are discussing definitions, it's a subsidy
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,084

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Many people are sufficiently distanced from the means of production (whether agriculture, energy or manufacturing) that they neither know nor care what the requirements of production are.
    I do not want to name these people on here for obvious reasons but they both work in geosciences, these are not some airy fairy theoreticians. They simply regard the global warming crisis as overwhelmingly the greatest threat to life and civilisation and think we need to do everything, no matter how small, to reduce it. As you will have gathered I strongly disagree but I always find it thought provoking when seriously intelligent and informed people hold very different views.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,852

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Even if we used no oil and gas for 'energy', we'd still need oil for plastics and pharmaceiticals, and (this is the big one) natural gas for nitrogen fertilizer.
    You can make ammonia using Green Hydrogen. Green Ammonia, it is imaginatively called.
    How many times the price of the conventional stuff is it currently ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,239
    edited 3:56PM
    After earlier discussions of VP Vance earlier, he is now far ahead in polling of Republican voters for the 2028 GOP primaries and ahead of Trump Jr and Rubio combined.

    On average it is Vance 45%, Trump Jr 15%, Rubio 13%, DeSantis 8%, Kennedy Jr 4%, Haley 3%, Carlson 3%, Cruz 2%, Ramaswamay 2%, Gabbard 1%

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2028/national
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,114

    Putin: "You should make the american army a lot more like the russian army"

    Trump: "Hey, that's a great idea."

    @timothysnyder.bsky.social‬

    War update:

    Russia helps Iran resist Trump, succeeds

    Russia helps Cuba resist Trump, succeeds

    Trump helps Russia invade Ukraine, fails
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 71,031
    President Trump will ask Congress to approve roughly $1.5 trillion in funding for the military in the 2027 fiscal year, according to a budget request released by the White House on Friday. If approved, that amount would set military spending at its highest level in modern history.

    NY Times


    I wonder what he plans to do with an enlarged military?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,968
    edited 3:59PM

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.

    That it would show up the Israelis and Americans as malignant, violent thugs is a nice bonus.
    Regardless of your feelings on the war and the US and Israel, it’s ridiculous to pretend the Iranian ruling regime aren’t violent thugs too.
    Wholeheartedly agree but one can still hope that they see propaganda value in treating the POWs well to reinforce the propaganda value of their 'letter to America'.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,876
    edited 4:01PM
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    To take a step back, it is astonishing and depressing that the main policy response and discussion from this crisis is about the North Sea. Something that has zero impact now, marginal impact in the future, and would not have protected either us from 2022/Ukraine or the umpteen fossil fuel crises to come.

    So you'll forgive a deep scepticism, even loathing, of those who are prattling on about it now. It's a deeply cynical diversion away from the only lesson you can draw from this and from Ukraine - we need to stop consuming fossil fuels as fast as possible.

    I think that's what driving a lot of the blunt opposition to it. We need more people like you and Richard_Tyndall making the case for both, otherwise people will understandbly sense an ulterior (or frankly open) motive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,239
    edited 3:59PM

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    It is amazing how this annual celebration of chocolate shaped into eggs and flavoured hot cross buns has been taken over by weird religious ideas. Modern life, eh?
    Good Friday is a day for Christians to reflect on the crucifixion. Easter Sunday is the day the secular can celebrate Easter eggs and bunnies and hot cross buns with Christians for whom it is also a day of celebration of the resurrection as well as the start of Spring
    Judging by the stock in shops people start celebrating easter with eggs around 1st January and buns from valentines day, so not sure your rules are working or understood. Maybe you'll need to start funding state schools similarly to private ones if you want us to be so disciplined.
    Well shops will obviously try and sell Easter goods as early as they can get money from them as their primary objective is to make a profit.

    Though they are still of course rightly operating at least reduced hours if not shut altogether on Good Friday, in Christian state schools the Easter story of Crucifixion and Resurrection will of course be well told
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,846
    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    It is amazing how this annual celebration of chocolate shaped into eggs and flavoured hot cross buns has been taken over by weird religious ideas. Modern life, eh?
    Good Friday is a day for Christians to reflect on the crucifixion. Easter Sunday is the day the secular can celebrate Easter eggs and bunnies and hot cross buns with Christians for whom it is also a day of celebration of the resurrection as well as the start of Spring
    Easter is an interesting time for Unitarians, who mostly consider the whole resurrection malarkey to be a load of old bollocks.

    Or a metaphor, to put it more politely. Jesus' teaching lives on, not the man himself.

    I've tried the metaphor argument on some Christian colleagues at work, and got nowhere.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,929
    I am Church of England, through and through.

    It's our church, and I'm very traditional.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,200

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    One question I would like answered on North Sea oil. Would any public subsidy be involved?

    No.
    They do get tax relief for various activities, which a lot of people describe as subsidy, even if it's really not.
    If a particular sector gets preferential tax treatment it absolutely is a subsidy. I appreciate the general public thinks of direct grants only, but there are loads of ways government can support a sector other than just cash transfers.
    If a particular sector is generating considerable net tax revenue, then for me at least it seems inaccurate to call it subsidised.

    Some of its activities (exploration at one end, and remediation at the other) are subsidised by the tax relief. For public benefit.
    Preferential tax relief counts as a subsidy under WTO definitions.
    That is a red herring; they also get taxed at far higher rates than other sectors.
    As long as Hormuz stays closed, yes. The expectation at least prior to this was North Sea revenues would essentially disappear over the next five years. There's no reason for believing authorising new licences will materially add to revenue in the medium term.

    We seem to have gone from a £25 billion bonanza and fuel bills in pennies to will it need subsidy in a few dozen comments but such are the byways of PB.com.

    Anyhow the discussion at that moment was well as my observation were about definitions. Preferential tax treatment is a subsidy as far as WTO is concerned. A subsidy doesn't require you to hand over cash

    Except the UK oil and gas industry doesn't get a preferential tax treatment. Exactly the opposite. It gets a punitive tax treatment that doesn't apply to any other industry and whose main aim is to destroy the industry rather than to raise revenue. The only comp[arable tax regime I can think of is smoking.
    "BP, external and Shell, external both received more money back from the UK government than they paid in tax every year from 2015 to 2020 (except Shell in 2017)."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60295177

    That doesn't sound crazily punitive to me.

    Taxes on profits have the difficulty that companies often manage to hide their profits.

    Ultimately no govt in my lifetime has made big corporations pay what they should, and with big tech I think its only getting worse.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,437
    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    One question I would like answered on North Sea oil. Would any public subsidy be involved?

    No.
    They do get tax relief for various activities, which a lot of people describe as subsidy, even if it's really not.
    If a particular sector gets preferential tax treatment it absolutely is a subsidy. I appreciate the general public thinks of direct grants only, but there are loads of ways government can support a sector other than just cash transfers.
    If a particular sector is generating considerable net tax revenue, then for me at least it seems inaccurate to call it subsidised.

    Some of its activities (exploration at one end, and remediation at the other) are subsidised by the tax relief. For public benefit.
    Preferential tax relief counts as a subsidy under WTO definitions.
    That is a red herring; they also get taxed at far higher rates than other sectors.
    As long as Hormuz stays closed, yes. The expectation at least prior to this was North Sea revenues would essentially disappear over the next five years. There's no reason for believing authorising new licences will materially add to revenue in the medium term.

    We seem to have gone from a £25 billion bonanza and fuel bills in pennies to will it need subsidy in a few dozen comments but such are the byways of PB.com.

    Anyhow the discussion at that moment was well as my observation were about definitions. Preferential tax treatment is a subsidy as far as WTO is concerned. A subsidy doesn't require you to hand over cash

    The oil price isn't dependent on cost of production; it's a global market determined by supply and demand.
    Subsidies/tax breaks shouldn't bother the WTO in the slightest here.
    Preferential tax treatment is a subsidy. Whether it's an illegal subsidy under WTO rules depends on the circumstances. WTO is nearly dead so it is mostly inconsequential. But if we are discussing definitions, it's a subsidy
    There would have to be a preferential tax treatment for that to be relevant.

    Quite the contrary is the case instead.
  • MattW said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    That's an important moment. By Trump and Hegseth's and the current USA's declared ethical values, Might is Right, and the Geneva Conventiona by implication have no meaning.
    Presumably Hegseth thinks the Iranians should give no quarter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 135,239

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    It is amazing how this annual celebration of chocolate shaped into eggs and flavoured hot cross buns has been taken over by weird religious ideas. Modern life, eh?
    Good Friday is a day for Christians to reflect on the crucifixion. Easter Sunday is the day the secular can celebrate Easter eggs and bunnies and hot cross buns with Christians for whom it is also a day of celebration of the resurrection as well as the start of Spring
    Easter is an interesting time for Unitarians, who mostly consider the whole resurrection malarkey to be a load of old bollocks.

    Or a metaphor, to put it more politely. Jesus' teaching lives on, not the man himself.

    I've tried the metaphor argument on some Christian colleagues at work, and got nowhere.
    Unitarians are now less than 0.1% of the UK population, they are now an endangered species. 46% of the population are still Christian though overall on the last census
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,846

    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:

    As an agnostic, I'm deeply offended* by this blatant display of Christianity in the middle of London. How dare they express domination over me like that?

    https://bsky.app/profile/london.gov.uk/post/3milz57xtpk27

    *(No I'm not I'm kidding)

    It is amazing how this annual celebration of chocolate shaped into eggs and flavoured hot cross buns has been taken over by weird religious ideas. Modern life, eh?
    Good Friday is a day for Christians to reflect on the crucifixion. Easter Sunday is the day the secular can celebrate Easter eggs and bunnies and hot cross buns with Christians for whom it is also a day of celebration of the resurrection as well as the start of Spring
    Judging by the stock in shops people start celebrating easter with eggs around 1st January and buns from valentines day, so not sure your rules are working or understood. Maybe you'll need to start funding state schools similarly to private ones if you want us to be so disciplined.
    Happily, M&S stocks hot cross buns all year round.

    However, it is only at the back end of the year that you can enjoy the hot cross bun & mince pie combo.
  • MattW said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    That's an important moment. By Trump and Hegseth's and the current USA's declared ethical values, Might is Right, and the Geneva Conventiona by implication have no meaning.
    Presumably Hegseth thinks the Iranians should give no quarter.
    Oops I see I'm about an hour late making that point ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,462

    MattW said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    That's an important moment. By Trump and Hegseth's and the current USA's declared ethical values, Might is Right, and the Geneva Conventiona by implication have no meaning.
    Presumably Hegseth thinks the Iranians should give no quarter.
    They shouldn't give a dime.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,558

    Today in Satire is Dead - Trump has just announced VD Vance will be a new FRAUD Czar - rooting out fraud across the country especially in Dem areas.

    America made Al Capone President. What did they expect?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,462

    I am Church of England, through and through.

    It's our church, and I'm very traditional.

    A priest in Kerry asked a man if he was a Catholic.

    'Yes, indeed, Father!'

    'Yet you do not seem a regular churchgoer?'

    'None better Father! Every Easter.'
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,200
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Many people are sufficiently distanced from the means of production (whether agriculture, energy or manufacturing) that they neither know nor care what the requirements of production are.
    I do not want to name these people on here for obvious reasons but they both work in geosciences, these are not some airy fairy theoreticians. They simply regard the global warming crisis as overwhelmingly the greatest threat to life and civilisation and think we need to do everything, no matter how small, to reduce it. As you will have gathered I strongly disagree but I always find it thought provoking when seriously intelligent and informed people hold very different views.
    Another view i have heard is that if we have civilisational collapse, we will need a store of hydrocarbons to reindustrialise afterwards.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,846
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Even if we used no oil and gas for 'energy', we'd still need oil for plastics and pharmaceiticals, and (this is the big one) natural gas for nitrogen fertilizer.
    You can make ammonia using Green Hydrogen. Green Ammonia, it is imaginatively called.
    How many times the price of the conventional stuff is it currently ?
    That depends on whether you factor in the ETS costs or not.

    But yes, it is expensive.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,753
    OT. Birthright citizenship for those with a legal interest in such things. I found this interesting and I love this girls podcasts

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmCAzdJmSXA
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,876
    edited 4:07PM
    maxh said:

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.

    That it would show up the Israelis and Americans as malignant, violent thugs is a nice bonus.
    Regardless of your feelings on the war and the US and Israel, it’s ridiculous to pretend the Iranian ruling regime aren’t violent thugs too.
    Wholeheartedly agree but one can still hope that they see propaganda value in treating the POWs well to reinforce the propaganda value of their 'letter to America'.
    It should not need stating given my original post was clear (somehow Gallowgate and Big_G_NorthWales have misconstrued it), but my point was that if the IRGC behave as normal and we witness the torture and public execution of a US pilot, the chance of peace is nil, Hormuz is closed for basically ever, and it gives Netanyahu and Trump twisted justification to wipe out Iranian (and Lebanese) civilian populations.

    As such I hope they play for worldwide public opinion here rather than go full death-cult. Dura_Ace is right that I'm being optimistic.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,968

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Many people are sufficiently distanced from the means of production (whether agriculture, energy or manufacturing) that they neither know nor care what the requirements of production are.
    Similar to those who ask why we have to have factory farming when we can just buy meat at the supermarket
    Does anyone actually ask that? If that's a real thing then I'm a bit speechless...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,462
    edited 4:09PM
    Eabhal said:

    maxh said:

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.

    That it would show up the Israelis and Americans as malignant, violent thugs is a nice bonus.
    Regardless of your feelings on the war and the US and Israel, it’s ridiculous to pretend the Iranian ruling regime aren’t violent thugs too.
    Wholeheartedly agree but one can still hope that they see propaganda value in treating the POWs well to reinforce the propaganda value of their 'letter to America'.
    It should not need stating given my original post was clear (somehow Gallowgate and Big_G_NorthWales have misconstrued it), but my point was that if the IRGC behave as normal and we witness the torture and public execution of a US pilot, the chance of peace is nil, Hormuz is closed for basically ever, and it gives Netanyahu and Trump twisted justification to wipe out Iranian (and Lebanese) civilian populations.

    As such I hope they play for worldwide public opinion here rather than go full death-cult. Dura_Ace is right that I'm being optimistic.
    If they offer to trade these two pilots for Trump and Netanyahu, that will leave all of us who hate Iran with an awful dilemma.

    Should the Iranians have Trump and Netanyahu shot or hanged?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 71,031
    Eabhal said:

    maxh said:

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.

    That it would show up the Israelis and Americans as malignant, violent thugs is a nice bonus.
    Regardless of your feelings on the war and the US and Israel, it’s ridiculous to pretend the Iranian ruling regime aren’t violent thugs too.
    Wholeheartedly agree but one can still hope that they see propaganda value in treating the POWs well to reinforce the propaganda value of their 'letter to America'.
    It should not need stating given my original post was clear (somehow Gallowgate and Big_G_NorthWales have misconstrued it), but my point was that if the IRGC behave as normal and we witness the torture and public execution of a US pilot, the chance of peace is nil, Hormuz is closed for basically ever, and it gives Netanyahu and Trump twisted justification to wipe out Iranian (and Lebanese) civilian populations.

    As such I hope they play for worldwide public opinion here rather than go full death-cult. Dura_Ace is right that I'm being optimistic.
    Why on earth would they kill a POW hostage?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,437
    Eabhal said:

    maxh said:

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    I really hope the Iranians make a song and dance about the Geneva Convention etc etc. Deeply cynical given their record but that’s the best outcome for the pilots, Iran and the rest of the world.

    That it would show up the Israelis and Americans as malignant, violent thugs is a nice bonus.
    Regardless of your feelings on the war and the US and Israel, it’s ridiculous to pretend the Iranian ruling regime aren’t violent thugs too.
    Wholeheartedly agree but one can still hope that they see propaganda value in treating the POWs well to reinforce the propaganda value of their 'letter to America'.
    It should not need stating given my original post was clear (somehow Gallowgate and Big_G_NorthWales have misconstrued it), but my point was that if the IRGC behave as normal and we witness the torture and public execution of a US pilot, the chance of peace is nil, Hormuz is closed for basically ever, and it gives Netanyahu and Trump twisted justification to wipe out Iranian (and Lebanese) civilian populations.

    As such I hope they play for worldwide public opinion here rather than go full death-cult. Dura_Ace is right that I'm being optimistic.
    The normal play for Iran seems to be to hold on to a hostage until the other party pays the ransom.

    As we did, which we should not have.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,291
    maxh said:

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Why are UK North Sea hydrocarbons more environmentally damaging than the rest of the World's hydrocarbons?

    Ironically they are less damaging by almost every measure. Including how they are extracted. The UK and Noway have just about the strictest environmental rules in the world governing North Sea operations. They are so strict about pollution we have to collect the rain water that falls on the rig and send it back to the beach for processing in case it has picked up any hydrocarbons.
    As I said earlier my wife lost a nephew in Piper Alpha and no doubt lessons were learnt but I just cannot see any sense in Miliband destroying jobs and tax revenues on an increasingly isolated idealistic position
    Agree entirely.
    Well not entirely. The underlying premise of Big_G_NorthWales' proposition is that Ed Miliband has sense but appears to be acting contrary to it on this particular occasion. It is not a premise that I agree with.
    One thing this political betting site has failed to discuss is public opinion. You might get the false sense from my posts that even the looniest econ-loons think we should be open to drilling the North Sea, but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Fossil fuels are widely unpopular.

    There is a simple, perverse logic that is difficult to quash - keeping oil and gas in the ground = oil and gas that isn't burnt. And in the Trump era, non-sensical destructive defiance is now commonplace in all sorts of areas. This time the shoe is on the other foot.
    Good friends of mine who are very capable academics at Edinburgh University were 100% behind the banning of further exploration in the North Sea. And they still are. Their reasoning is that we must do everything possible to reduce our use of hydrocarbons as rapidly as possible and that means not encouraging any further production where we can control it.

    I am all for us building up our renewables, ideally to over 100% of our internal demand, but I simply do not understand this rationale at all. If we still need hydrocarbons whilst we are transitioning as fast as possible we should use our own rather than importing it from elsewhere in the world where much of the production is far more ecologically damaging than north sea production. The idea that the amount we can produce from the North Sea will have any effect of world production and consumption is frankly ridiculous and self harming. But these are exceptionally bright people that I respect greatly and I have to accept it is not quite the no brainer I consider it.
    Many people are sufficiently distanced from the means of production (whether agriculture, energy or manufacturing) that they neither know nor care what the requirements of production are.
    Similar to those who ask why we have to have factory farming when we can just buy meat at the supermarket
    Does anyone actually ask that? If that's a real thing then I'm a bit speechless...
    I have heard it on two seperate occasions from people old enough to know better when at anti-vivisection meetings. Neither of them in the last decade admitedly but it always stuck in my mind. The first time I laughed out loud, as did the lady chairing the meeting as we genuinely thought it was meant as a joke. Needless to say it was made very clear that it wasn't. It did mean I was forewarned the second time around and tried to be more balanced in my reply.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,756
    edited 4:15PM

    MattW said:

    Twitter saying Iranian media saying they have US POWs.

    That's an important moment. By Trump and Hegseth's and the current USA's declared ethical values, Might is Right, and the Geneva Conventiona by implication have no meaning.
    Presumably Hegseth thinks the Iranians should give no quarter.
    Ben Gvir demonstrated Israel's thoughts on all this the other day
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,558

    Are the bondage queens and the bondage kings running the Green Party going to find common ground other than “Israel bad”?

    Zack doesn't like Starmer. That brings the entire nation together.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,852
    .
    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    One question I would like answered on North Sea oil. Would any public subsidy be involved?

    No.
    They do get tax relief for various activities, which a lot of people describe as subsidy, even if it's really not.
    If a particular sector gets preferential tax treatment it absolutely is a subsidy. I appreciate the general public thinks of direct grants only, but there are loads of ways government can support a sector other than just cash transfers.
    If a particular sector is generating considerable net tax revenue, then for me at least it seems inaccurate to call it subsidised.

    Some of its activities (exploration at one end, and remediation at the other) are subsidised by the tax relief. For public benefit.
    Preferential tax relief counts as a subsidy under WTO definitions.
    That is a red herring; they also get taxed at far higher rates than other sectors.
    As long as Hormuz stays closed, yes. The expectation at least prior to this was North Sea revenues would essentially disappear over the next five years. There's no reason for believing authorising new licences will materially add to revenue in the medium term.

    We seem to have gone from a £25 billion bonanza and fuel bills in pennies to will it need subsidy in a few dozen comments but such are the byways of PB.com.

    Anyhow the discussion at that moment was well as my observation were about definitions. Preferential tax treatment is a subsidy as far as WTO is concerned. A subsidy doesn't require you to hand over cash

    The oil price isn't dependent on cost of production; it's a global market determined by supply and demand.
    Subsidies/tax breaks shouldn't bother the WTO in the slightest here.
    Preferential tax treatment is a subsidy. Whether it's an illegal subsidy under WTO rules depends on the circumstances. WTO is nearly dead so it is mostly inconsequential. But if we are discussing definitions, it's a subsidy
    Again, you have to look at the overall picture.
    It's not "preferential tax treatment" when the tax on production is massively higher than other corporate taxes.
    What is the net figure ?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,339
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Electoral Calculus has an interesting new April projection with Reform first on 266 seats, the Tories second on 107 and Greens third on 74. Followed by the LDs on 69 MPs and Labour on 63

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

    Nowcast though has Reform again ahead on 283 MPs but the LDs second on 84, Labour third on 74, followed by the Greens on 64 and Tories on 63

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

    Interesting to see an article by Richard Rose on there. He was ITN's election expert on their 1974 election night show. He was around 40 then so must be about 92 now.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_rrose_20260403.html
    He was my 2nd year tutor at Manchester. He was the main reason that I became a political scientist.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,753
    Apart from Trump is there a more repulsive American than John Bolton. On Radio 4 now.
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