Healey - UK considering defending the Strait of Hormuz
We could scramble some minesweepers in ooh, what, five weeks?
As quick as that ?
The UK had some “autonomous systems” available in the Middle East that could be used to search for Iranian mines, though a mine-hunting vessel previously in the region, HMS Middleton, had returned to the UK for maintenance.
The effective closure of the strait, partly by drone attacks on oil tankers and cargo vessels, has pushed the oil price to about $100 a barrel. The quickest way of ending the blockade would be through “a de-escalation of the conflict”, Healey said.
He did not rule out the UK eventually participating in a possible convoy of merchant shipping through the waterway, but a formal proposal is not thought to be close while the US vacillates over the issue.
Where did you get your “‘Healey - UK considering defending the Strait of Hormuz” quote Big G? He’s clearly not saying that in anything I found. You got a link?
It was Sky's strap line as Debra Haynes, their defence correspondent, reported live from a UK base that Healey was attending
Defence Secretary signals British forces to help evacuate Britons
I've always said it was to the UK and Argentina's immense credit that they set up a Red Cross Box during the Falklands War.
Both sides transferred wounded sailors/troops and supplies to ensure no lives were lost needlessly.
Trump, Bibi, and the Iranians would consider that utter woke nonsense/a sign of weakness.
I guess one of the issues is that in 1984 no-one in Britain hated the Argentinians. (And I don't think the Argentinians hated the Brits). So there was no real animosity.
Not the same for the ME where you sense there is generational hatred. How it ends is unclear.
Huh?
Thirty five years on and the Argentinians wanted to lynch the BBC Top Gear trio.
Thats after we had slaughtered there youth in the Falklands. No-one in the UK knew where Argentina was in 1982, let alone the Falklands.
Anyone who had regularly played Risk would know where Argentina is.
Tango dancers know where Argentina is.
As do the Welsh, since they occupied a chunk of it.
Fun fact that I learned thanks to Chris Patten, in China ‘tango dancer’ is a euphemism for a prostitute.
In Taiwan when you want waitress service or address any woman working you call her "Xiaojie" (lit. Little big sister). This is Mainland slang for prostitute. Most embarrassing.
No 10 says ministers were right to give Peter Mandelson a £75k payoff after he was sacked in disgrace - but also that he should give it back
Would those against the payout prefer we paid him £250k and lawyers another £500k after a court battle?
Sir Keir said he lied during the vetting.
Lying on a job application or during vetting is Gross Misconduct and grounds for termination without compensation.
If he did not do that, then Sir Keir has lied.
Either he should have been fired, with cause, without notice, or the PM should be resigning.
More to the point his contract made it expressly clear that he was not entitled to notice and there at the whim of the government. I don't understand why an early termination payment was even being discussed.
Interesting iconography. St Nigel the Saviour who will heal broken Britain. My OH wanted our names taken off the 'list' until I told her, its the Electoral Roll so no deal. As a staunch One-Nation Tory she may actually vote Conservative this time.
I have just received one of those Reform invitations - but in Leeds. The campaign must have cost a fortune.
As will you travelling to West Sussex.
There is a Reform rally in The First Direct Bank Arena in Leeds the day before the rally in Sussex.
Elon Musk’s Tesla has won approval to supply electricity to households and businesses across Great Britain, as the tech billionaire expands his energy ambitions.
Interesting iconography. St Nigel the Saviour who will heal broken Britain. My OH wanted our names taken off the 'list' until I told her, its the Electoral Roll so no deal. As a staunch One-Nation Tory she may actually vote Conservative this time.
I would be asking for explicit examples of where Regorm have saved money wasted by previous councils
Not had anything here yet in North Norfolk from them, but i expect to as they clearly think they can pull their shit here. I intend to marshall the plentiful local old dears into a Conservative rearguard action and see them off
Iran has allowed ships from some countries to cross Strait of Hormuz: Deputy FM More now from Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi, who has told the AFP News Agency that Iran has allowed ships from some countries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Some countries have already talked to us about passing the strait, and we have cooperated with them,” he said during an interview in Tehran.
“As far as Iran is concerned, we feel that those countries that joined the aggression should not benefit from safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Interesting iconography. St Nigel the Saviour who will heal broken Britain. My OH wanted our names taken off the 'list' until I told her, its the Electoral Roll so no deal. As a staunch One-Nation Tory she may actually vote Conservative this time.
I have just received one of those Reform invitations - but in Leeds. The campaign must have cost a fortune.
As will you travelling to West Sussex.
There is a Reform rally in The First Direct Bank Arena in Leeds the day before the rally in Sussex.
Fragile attention seeking wannabes. Glitz over substance. Seek out and humiliate.
No 10 says ministers were right to give Peter Mandelson a £75k payoff after he was sacked in disgrace - but also that he should give it back
Would those against the payout prefer we paid him £250k and lawyers another £500k after a court battle?
Sir Keir said he lied during the vetting.
Lying on a job application or during vetting is Gross Misconduct and grounds for termination without compensation.
If he did not do that, then Sir Keir has lied.
Either he should have been fired, with cause, without notice, or the PM should be resigning.
More to the point his contract made it expressly clear that he was not entitled to notice and there at the whim of the government. I don't understand why an early termination payment was even being discussed.
#NU10K - failure looks different.
For most people failure means losing your job. Prison even.
For the Blessed Ones, failure means a payout, followed by getting another job. A better one. With a golden hello.
To not give him a payout would be “vindictive”. It would break the moral obligation to treat him as One of Us, rather than a prole.
ChatGPT obviousy still doesn't care about factual information, because they're still giving inaccurate election results. Just tried it again with a question about votes cast at the 1983 election in a random constituency.
On topic, thank you @JosiasJessop for a really informative header. What I think we are seeing here is another example of the lawless world that Carney so eloquently described. He quoted Thucydides: " the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." This is where we have got to and it is very sad, not least for the victims caught by such brutality.
We were wrong not to call out the criminal acts of "double tapping" those on boats off Venezuela attacked without evidence or justification by the US. We were wrong not to call out the criminal acts of the US and Israel in attacking Iran. Standing for these principles is not always comfortable but the consequences of not doing so are cruel indeed.
ChatGPT obviousy still doesn't care about factual information, because they're still giving inaccurate election results. Just tried it again with a question about votes cast at the 1983 election in a random constituency.
Ai does not check facts - it’s makes up plausible answers and isn’t trustworthy
ChatGPT obviousy still doesn't care about factual information, because they're still giving inaccurate election results. Just tried it again with a question about votes cast at the 1983 election in a random constituency.
Ai does not check facts - it’s makes up plausible answers and isn’t trustworthy
No wonder the US administration uses it so much. Although it will need to work on the "plausible" bit.
No 10 says ministers were right to give Peter Mandelson a £75k payoff after he was sacked in disgrace - but also that he should give it back
Would those against the payout prefer we paid him £250k and lawyers another £500k after a court battle?
Sir Keir said he lied during the vetting.
Lying on a job application or during vetting is Gross Misconduct and grounds for termination without compensation.
If he did not do that, then Sir Keir has lied.
Either he should have been fired, with cause, without notice, or the PM should be resigning.
More to the point his contract made it expressly clear that he was not entitled to notice and there at the whim of the government. I don't understand why an early termination payment was even being discussed.
#NU10K - failure looks different.
For most people failure means losing your job. Prison even.
For the Blessed Ones, failure means a payout, followed by getting another job. A better one. With a golden hello.
To not give him a payout would be “vindictive”. It would break the moral obligation to treat him as One of Us, rather than a prole.
'NU10k' or not - I'd argue he's something a little more unusual than that - I doubt Peter Mandelson is going to progress to a better job.
Two Iranian diplomats defect: Alireza Sohbati and Mohammad Pournajaf, posted in Copenhagen and Canberra, seek asylum, joining a rising wave of Iranian officials abandoning their posts.
Two Iranian diplomats defect: Alireza Sohbati and Mohammad Pournajaf, posted in Copenhagen and Canberra, seek asylum, joining a rising wave of Iranian officials abandoning their posts.
Be interesting if they have info on sleeper cells...
No 10 says ministers were right to give Peter Mandelson a £75k payoff after he was sacked in disgrace - but also that he should give it back
Would those against the payout prefer we paid him £250k and lawyers another £500k after a court battle?
Sir Keir said he lied during the vetting.
Lying on a job application or during vetting is Gross Misconduct and grounds for termination without compensation.
If he did not do that, then Sir Keir has lied.
Either he should have been fired, with cause, without notice, or the PM should be resigning.
More to the point his contract made it expressly clear that he was not entitled to notice and there at the whim of the government. I don't understand why an early termination payment was even being discussed.
#NU10K - failure looks different.
For most people failure means losing your job. Prison even.
For the Blessed Ones, failure means a payout, followed by getting another job. A better one. With a golden hello.
To not give him a payout would be “vindictive”. It would break the moral obligation to treat him as One of Us, rather than a prole.
'NU10k' or not - I'd argue he's something a little more unusual than that - I doubt Peter Mandelson is going to progress to a better job.
He will “rest” for a bit. Then gradually, he will accidentally fall into new jobs.
Probably charity stuff to start the rehabilitation - on the board of a few.
Then, after the next election, the potential prosecution will be dropped - insufficient evidence and not in the public interest….
ChatGPT obviousy still doesn't care about factual information, because they're still giving inaccurate election results. Just tried it again with a question about votes cast at the 1983 election in a random constituency.
I was at the Current Archaeoogy Conference in London a couple of weeks ago. Loads of really interesting talks. One was on notable women in Archaeology, of which there have been plenty over the last century.
To start the talk the two presenters said that they had asked Chat GPT to tell them the 3 most notable men in British Archaeology since 1900 and give a resume of their careers. With a few minor errors the answers provided were broadly correct although of course there is always room for debate in these things.
They then asked Chat GPT to do the same for the 3 most notable women over the same period. The answers duly came back along with resumes, notable achievements, positions held and papers published.
The problem was that none of these women actually existed. These were detailed answers including citations for 3 women who are no more real than Miss Marple.
Of course the lack of immediate women for Chat GPT to seek out and use is part of the problem (though there are dozens of very notable female archaeologists down the years) but it also served to illustrate the problem with LLMs. They are trained to provide answers and when they can't they just make shit up to fulfill their task.
No 10 says ministers were right to give Peter Mandelson a £75k payoff after he was sacked in disgrace - but also that he should give it back
Would those against the payout prefer we paid him £250k and lawyers another £500k after a court battle?
Sir Keir said he lied during the vetting.
Lying on a job application or during vetting is Gross Misconduct and grounds for termination without compensation.
If he did not do that, then Sir Keir has lied.
Either he should have been fired, with cause, without notice, or the PM should be resigning.
More to the point his contract made it expressly clear that he was not entitled to notice and there at the whim of the government. I don't understand why an early termination payment was even being discussed.
#NU10K - failure looks different.
For most people failure means losing your job. Prison even.
For the Blessed Ones, failure means a payout, followed by getting another job. A better one. With a golden hello.
To not give him a payout would be “vindictive”. It would break the moral obligation to treat him as One of Us, rather than a prole.
'NU10k' or not - I'd argue he's something a little more unusual than that - I doubt Peter Mandelson is going to progress to a better job.
He will “rest” for a bit. Then gradually, he will accidentally fall into new jobs.
Probably charity stuff to start the rehabilitation - on the board of a few.
Then, after the next election, the potential prosecution will be dropped - insufficient evidence and not in the public interest….
Hmm, maybe, but I think not in this case. It's a pretty high profile and intense disgrace. And there's that 'pedo' aspect. It's not just corruption and £££.
No 10 says ministers were right to give Peter Mandelson a £75k payoff after he was sacked in disgrace - but also that he should give it back
Would those against the payout prefer we paid him £250k and lawyers another £500k after a court battle?
Sir Keir said he lied during the vetting.
Lying on a job application or during vetting is Gross Misconduct and grounds for termination without compensation.
If he did not do that, then Sir Keir has lied.
Either he should have been fired, with cause, without notice, or the PM should be resigning.
More to the point his contract made it expressly clear that he was not entitled to notice and there at the whim of the government. I don't understand why an early termination payment was even being discussed.
#NU10K - failure looks different.
For most people failure means losing your job. Prison even.
For the Blessed Ones, failure means a payout, followed by getting another job. A better one. With a golden hello.
To not give him a payout would be “vindictive”. It would break the moral obligation to treat him as One of Us, rather than a prole.
'NU10k' or not - I'd argue he's something a little more unusual than that - I doubt Peter Mandelson is going to progress to a better job.
He will “rest” for a bit. Then gradually, he will accidentally fall into new jobs.
Probably charity stuff to start the rehabilitation - on the board of a few.
Then, after the next election, the potential prosecution will be dropped - insufficient evidence and not in the public interest….
Hmm, maybe, but I think not in this case. It's a pretty high profile and intense disgrace. And there's that 'pedo' aspect. It's not just corruption and £££.
I've always said it was to the UK and Argentina's immense credit that they set up a Red Cross Box during the Falklands War.
Both sides transferred wounded sailors/troops and supplies to ensure no lives were lost needlessly.
Trump, Bibi, and the Iranians would consider that utter woke nonsense/a sign of weakness.
I guess one of the issues is that in 1984 no-one in Britain hated the Argentinians. (And I don't think the Argentinians hated the Brits). So there was no real animosity.
Not the same for the ME where you sense there is generational hatred. How it ends is unclear.
Huh?
Thirty five years on and the Argentinians wanted to lynch the BBC Top Gear trio.
Thats after we had slaughtered there youth in the Falklands. No-one in the UK knew where Argentina was in 1982, let alone the Falklands.
Anyone who had regularly played Risk would know where Argentina is.
Tango dancers know where Argentina is.
As do the Welsh, since they occupied a chunk of it.
Fun fact that I learned thanks to Chris Patten, in China ‘tango dancer’ is a euphemism for a prostitute.
In Taiwan when you want waitress service or address any woman working you call her "Xiaojie" (lit. Little big sister). This is Mainland slang for prostitute. Most embarrassing.
The trailer for "Disclosure Day" is out. It looks bloody marvellous: Spielberg being proper 70/80s Spielberg, not this Ready Player One gubbins. Here it is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCYT8vb2siQ
(mutters "...Please be a stealth sequel to CE3K. Please be a stealth sequel to CE3K....)
I've always said it was to the UK and Argentina's immense credit that they set up a Red Cross Box during the Falklands War.
Both sides transferred wounded sailors/troops and supplies to ensure no lives were lost needlessly.
Trump, Bibi, and the Iranians would consider that utter woke nonsense/a sign of weakness.
I guess one of the issues is that in 1984 no-one in Britain hated the Argentinians. (And I don't think the Argentinians hated the Brits). So there was no real animosity.
Not the same for the ME where you sense there is generational hatred. How it ends is unclear.
Huh?
Thirty five years on and the Argentinians wanted to lynch the BBC Top Gear trio.
Thats after we had slaughtered there youth in the Falklands. No-one in the UK knew where Argentina was in 1982, let alone the Falklands.
Anyone who had regularly played Risk would know where Argentina is.
Tango dancers know where Argentina is.
As do the Welsh, since they occupied a chunk of it.
The trailer for Disclosure Day is out. It looks bloody marvellous: Spielberg being proper 70/80s Spielberg, not this Ready Player One gubbins. Here it is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCYT8vb2siQ
(mutters "...Please be a stealth sequel to CE3K. Please be a stealth sequel to CE3K....)
Politics in 2026. Labour and Conservatives competing over whether immigrants should be deported voluntarily or involuntarily. How did we get into this mess?
Politics in 2026. Labour and Conservatives competing over whether immigrants should be deported voluntarily or involuntarily. How did we get into this mess?
Where is Priti Patel being deported to? And when? Can I watch?
The trailer for Disclosure Day is out. It looks bloody marvellous: Spielberg being proper 70/80s Spielberg, not this Ready Player One gubbins. Here it is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCYT8vb2siQ
(mutters "...Please be a stealth sequel to CE3K. Please be a stealth sequel to CE3K....)
Politics in 2026. Labour and Conservatives competing over whether immigrants should be deported voluntarily or involuntarily. How did we get into this mess?
Politics in 2026. Labour and Conservatives competing over whether immigrants should be deported voluntarily or involuntarily. How did we get into this mess?
Because they didn't listen to the electorate at any time on immigration.
“We started a war that is actively enriching the country we've been sanctioning for four years, and now we're considering giving them a sanctions pass to help clean up the mess.”
I've always said it was to the UK and Argentina's immense credit that they set up a Red Cross Box during the Falklands War.
Both sides transferred wounded sailors/troops and supplies to ensure no lives were lost needlessly.
Trump, Bibi, and the Iranians would consider that utter woke nonsense/a sign of weakness.
I guess one of the issues is that in 1984 no-one in Britain hated the Argentinians. (And I don't think the Argentinians hated the Brits). So there was no real animosity.
Not the same for the ME where you sense there is generational hatred. How it ends is unclear.
Huh?
Thirty five years on and the Argentinians wanted to lynch the BBC Top Gear trio.
Thats after we had slaughtered there youth in the Falklands. No-one in the UK knew where Argentina was in 1982, let alone the Falklands.
Anyone who had regularly played Risk would know where Argentina is.
Tango dancers know where Argentina is.
As do the Welsh, since they occupied a chunk of it.
Isn't that partly why they play rugby?
They have also won as many Olympic Polo gold medals as we have. Between 1900 and 1936. They only played in the 2 tournaments where they won gold. It's just like football.
Politics in 2026. Labour and Conservatives competing over whether immigrants should be deported voluntarily or involuntarily. How did we get into this mess?
Because they didn't listen to the electorate at any time on immigration.
Boris did. He quite properly explained that as we wanted to kick out Eastern Europeans because we voted Brexit we would need to bring in "our friends" from the Indian Sub-Continent to pick up the slack.
We all told Boris that we didn't like Eastern Europeans and we wanted healthcare and service provision from farther afield and he obliged.
Sums it up well. Trump and Hegseth are just a couple of over-grown schoolkids who see all this killing as just a glorified video game. They make me want to puke.
ChatGPT obviousy still doesn't care about factual information, because they're still giving inaccurate election results. Just tried it again with a question about votes cast at the 1983 election in a random constituency.
Neither ChatGPT nor any other AI "care" about factual information. That's not what they do. They are incredibly useful tools, but they aren't a source of facts. Surely everybody knows this by now!
Thank you to @JosiasJessop for an excellent, if depressing, thread header.
Iran's targeting of non combatant Gulf states in retaliation further emphasises the precarious nature of global stability. What was the world's policeman since WWII has now become a semi-rogue state itself.
It's not at all clear how we climb back out of this.
The same way we climbed out of it last time - bouncing off the bottom of the abyss. If we fight hard for our principles and have a large slice of luck.
Otherwise, we don't. Human society regresses to a more violent and less free state.
Interesting iconography. St Nigel the Saviour who will heal broken Britain. My OH wanted our names taken off the 'list' until I told her, its the Electoral Roll so no deal. As a staunch One-Nation Tory she may actually vote Conservative this time.
Do either the "not on open register" or "vote anonymously" options take you off the mailing list?
Thank you to @JosiasJessop for an excellent, if depressing, thread header.
Iran's targeting of non combatant Gulf states in retaliation further emphasises the precarious nature of global stability. What was the world's policeman since WWII has now become a semi-rogue state itself.
It's not at all clear how we climb back out of this.
The same way we climbed out of it last time - bouncing off the bottom of the abyss. If we fight hard for our principles and have a large slice of luck.
Otherwise, we don't. Human society regresses to a more violent and less free state.
It's not looking great, is it? It seems like after every major conflict promises are made to abide by jointly drafted rules and to eschew violence as far as possible. To never forget. Then after a few decades, we do indeed forget and it all kicks off again.
“We started a war that is actively enriching the country we've been sanctioning for four years, and now we're considering giving them a sanctions pass to help clean up the mess.”
When you have a political party in charge of America that has gone f***ing insane, that's the sort of stuff that happens.
Phew! I have invested my time and efforts mostly into the fez, not politics. I’m now exhausted.
I have though noticed claims, it’s the hands of Russia steering Iran to stop oil movement and force the price up a bit, on outside chance Ukraines allies will allow that situation to benefit Russia.
Also, as a catch up, are any opposition parties trying to claim it was Starmer himself that made the mistake in appointing Mandelson, to try and damage Starmer with that perception?
Interesting FON poll because it’s yet another one showing very close numbers between multiple parties.
It’s going to play havoc with FPTP if it continues. I think this calls for another ratio, or index. Yes, let’s do an index: the election forecast obfuscation factor, or EF-OFF.
Let’s take the 2019 results as our base, 100 value. Achieved by:
- 1/STDev of the percentages for the 5 national parties plus “other” / - highest party score / second party score - Indexed to 100
Politics in 2026. Labour and Conservatives competing over whether immigrants should be deported voluntarily or involuntarily. How did we get into this mess?
Interesting FON poll because it’s yet another one showing very close numbers between multiple parties.
It’s going to play havoc with FPTP if it continues. I think this calls for another ratio, or index. Yes, let’s do an index: the election forecast obfuscation factor, or EF-OFF.
Let’s take the 2019 results as our base, 100 value. Achieved by:
- 1/STDev of the percentages for the 5 national parties plus “other” / - highest party score / second party score - Indexed to 100
Ed Miliband must step in and bar Tesla from holding an energy licence.
Elon Musk is a threat to our national security and clearly not a fit person to operate in our energy industry.
We can’t have the lights go out because he’s having a strop on X.
I agree with Ed.
The bit that makes it more than just a politician sounding off for the sake of it is the truth of “We can’t have the lights go out because he’s having a strop on X.”
Kemi going in boots on over Starmer having sent petrol prices through the roof with his war with Iran.
I wonder if she's thought about blockading Ebbsfleet and Fawley with trucks and tractors like Hague did in 2000.
Go on girl!
Surely Starmer just says: I never supported this war, but you did - you own these rises.
She has categorically explained that she has been against an offensive war since day one. She says that she only ever supported the notion of a defensive war, and has castigated Starmer for his Iran War flip-floppery.
Sums it up well. Trump and Hegseth are just a couple of over-grown schoolkids who see all this killing as just a glorified video game. They make me want to puke.
There's a follow up that leans in to the video game theme:
I've always said it was to the UK and Argentina's immense credit that they set up a Red Cross Box during the Falklands War.
Both sides transferred wounded sailors/troops and supplies to ensure no lives were lost needlessly.
Trump, Bibi, and the Iranians would consider that utter woke nonsense/a sign of weakness.
I guess one of the issues is that in 1984 no-one in Britain hated the Argentinians. (And I don't think the Argentinians hated the Brits). So there was no real animosity.
Not the same for the ME where you sense there is generational hatred. How it ends is unclear.
Huh?
Thirty five years on and the Argentinians wanted to lynch the BBC Top Gear trio.
Thats after we had slaughtered there youth in the Falklands. No-one in the UK knew where Argentina was in 1982, let alone the Falklands.
Anyone who had regularly played Risk would know where Argentina is.
Tango dancers know where Argentina is.
As do the Welsh, since they occupied a chunk of it.
A huge part in the Aberystwyth Noir books, if I recall correctly. (Malcolm Pryce)
Truth or Aberdare.
Malcolm Pryce is very funny. Long time back had a riotous night out in Borth, it was all pretty tame until we passed the Friendship Inn heading back home. A well-dressed mature lady chatting on her mobile fell out of the door completely hammered, thought "why don't we have a last pint in here?", 4 hours and a lot of singing and laughter later we were chucked out
Thank you to @JosiasJessop for an excellent, if depressing, thread header.
Iran's targeting of non combatant Gulf states in retaliation further emphasises the precarious nature of global stability. What was the world's policeman since WWII has now become a semi-rogue state itself.
It's not at all clear how we climb back out of this.
The same way we climbed out of it last time - bouncing off the bottom of the abyss. If we fight hard for our principles and have a large slice of luck.
Otherwise, we don't. Human society regresses to a more violent and less free state.
It's not looking great, is it? It seems like after every major conflict promises are made to abide by jointly drafted rules and to eschew violence as far as possible. To never forget. Then after a few decades, we do indeed forget and it all kicks off again.
I'm not looking forward to China being the global hegemon, and enforcing its style of global order, because the US destroyed itself by following the deranged whims of a corrupt narcissist.
The major risk is that the forces of democracy and law don't win the next major conflict. And then we're really in the shit.
@JosiasJessop An excellent article, many thanks. My father was a merchant seaman during WWII, so I'm familiar with some (not much) of the history.
Seconded @JosiasJessop - just by coincidence this week I obtained via eBay reasonably good copies of "Cruisers of World War 2" and "Destroyers of World War 2" by M J Whitley.
Interesting FON poll because it’s yet another one showing very close numbers between multiple parties.
It’s going to play havoc with FPTP if it continues. I think this calls for another ratio, or index. Yes, let’s do an index: the election forecast obfuscation factor, or EF-OFF.
Let’s take the 2019 results as our base, 100 value. Achieved by:
- 1/STDev of the percentages for the 5 national parties plus “other” / - highest party score / second party score - Indexed to 100
Given that a score of 161 in 24 already caused havoc, these current numbers are going to blow the model entirely.
Several interesting factors from that. How does it impact the Local Election models which give us the NEV type things? In a few weeks time, will the Boffins who built models on 2.4 party politics, and TV companies who have paid these boffins for use of them this year, stand by the utter guff 2.4 party political modelling comes up with? It’s now nearer 8.1 party political modelling that is needed.
Just a few months ago it was still safe to say three voting blocks, #Reform - right of centre populist, #Kemi’s Conservatives - right of centre populist, #ProgBloc - Lab/LibDem/Green centre and left lending each other votes to defeat the right of centre candidates. I don’t think we can now include Green in ProgBloc, as Greens under this leader are Populist not Progressive, whilst once Libdem coalesced with Green in elections, Lab and LibDem should now treat Greens in exactly the same way Boris Conservatives treated UKIP: don’t work them, treat them like shit, aggressively devour their voters. Much like the crowding field of right wing Populist outfits already treating each other, syphon votes from each other to survive existential threat.
If a Psephologist claims today they have a great model for parliament seats from polls, and for a NEV from votes, I will call them a pathetic liar.
Thank you to @JosiasJessop for an excellent, if depressing, thread header.
Iran's targeting of non combatant Gulf states in retaliation further emphasises the precarious nature of global stability. What was the world's policeman since WWII has now become a semi-rogue state itself.
It's not at all clear how we climb back out of this.
The same way we climbed out of it last time - bouncing off the bottom of the abyss. If we fight hard for our principles and have a large slice of luck.
Otherwise, we don't. Human society regresses to a more violent and less free state.
It's not looking great, is it? It seems like after every major conflict promises are made to abide by jointly drafted rules and to eschew violence as far as possible. To never forget. Then after a few decades, we do indeed forget and it all kicks off again.
I'm not looking forward to China being the global hegemon, and enforcing its style of global order, because the US destroyed itself by following the deranged whims of a corrupt narcissist.
The major risk is that the forces of democracy and law don't win the next major conflict. And then we're really in the shit.
It baffles me how some people in the West were eagerly supportive of a messy end to American hegemony. It had it's issues, to be sure, but a multipolar world is not looking to be a better one overall.
Interesting iconography. St Nigel the Saviour who will heal broken Britain. My OH wanted our names taken off the 'list' until I told her, its the Electoral Roll so no deal. As a staunch One-Nation Tory she may actually vote Conservative this time.
I have just received one of those Reform invitations - but in Leeds. The campaign must have cost a fortune.
As will you travelling to West Sussex.
Location is interesting as the Ardingly Showground is synonymous with the farming community. Wonder if he hopes to get a few of the Shire Tories along to offer them reduced CGT and more subsidies. Paid for by the savings they are achieving.
Another day, another, well, we'll see, at Cheltenham.
I come on here and read we are going to deport immigrants - I thought we already deported those whose applications for asylum were unsuccessful but it seems instead as was the case once with tax and spend, we are embarking on a dutch auction to see who can be the "hardest" on immigration. A fine example of what happens when your have Government and Opposition positions determined by focus groups and tweets rather than what is good for the country.
It also seems we want to continue with one of our stupidest moves in the past 30-40 years - there's no problem with taking infrastructure out of public hands but we sell it to foreign companies. Fine, we get a nice little sum in the coffers but longer term you end up with the spectacle of British consumers having to pay more for their electricity and gas to foreign companies who use that to subsidise the costs their home customers pay.
Poor foreign people aren't welcome but rich foreign companies are - we begrudge any money going to the former but we are happy to pay more than we should to the latter - makes no sense at all.
Kemi going in boots on over Starmer having sent petrol prices through the roof with his war with Iran.
I wonder if she's thought about blockading Ebbsfleet and Fawley with trucks and tractors like Hague did in 2000.
Go on girl!
Surely Starmer just says: I never supported this war, but you did - you own these rises.
She has categorically explained that she has been against an offensive war since day one. She says that she only ever supported the notion of a defensive war, and has castigated Starmer for his Iran War flip-floppery.
Kemi and her followers on PB and in the MSM gave Starmer and his government a very hard time for 10 days, calling him wrong for refusing Trump use of our bases for offensive missions, that these days, by not joining with US, Labour are unpatriotic compared to how they were a patriotic party after the war.
How to interpret “British Troops are just hanging around” if it’s not an attack line on the governments stance on involvement?
Interesting FON poll because it’s yet another one showing very close numbers between multiple parties.
It’s going to play havoc with FPTP if it continues. I think this calls for another ratio, or index. Yes, let’s do an index: the election forecast obfuscation factor, or EF-OFF.
Let’s take the 2019 results as our base, 100 value. Achieved by:
- 1/STDev of the percentages for the 5 national parties plus “other” / - highest party score / second party score - Indexed to 100
Given that a score of 161 in 24 already caused havoc, these current numbers are going to blow the model entirely.
Several interesting factors from that. How does it impact the Local Election models which give us the NEV type things? In a few weeks time, will the Boffins who built models on 2.4 party politics, and TV companies who have paid these boffins for use of them this year, stand by the utter guff 2.4 party political modelling comes up with? It’s now nearer 8.1 party political modelling that is needed.
Just a few months ago it was still safe to say three voting blocks, #Reform - right of centre populist, #Kemi’s Conservatives - right of centre populist, #ProgBloc - Lab/LibDem/Green centre and left lending each other votes to defeat the right of centre candidates. I don’t think we can now include Green in ProgBloc, as Greens under this leader are Populist not Progressive, whilst once Libdem coalesced with Green in elections, Lab and LibDem should now treat Greens in exactly the same way Boris Conservatives treated UKIP: don’t work them, treat them like shit, aggressively devour their voters. Much like the crowding field of right wing Populist outfits already treating each other, syphon votes from each other to survive existential threat.
If a Psephologist claims today they have a great model for parliament seats from polls, and for a NEV from votes, I will call them a pathetic liar.
I agree, until we’ve had a national election under these conditions we really don’t have much of a clue. And frankly, even after the locals I don’t think our clue will be that helpful. Only once we’ve had a general election under these conditions will we know how the new world is going to work.
Time to move to STV, as the Lib Dems have been arguing for decades.
Kemi going in boots on over Starmer having sent petrol prices through the roof with his war with Iran.
I wonder if she's thought about blockading Ebbsfleet and Fawley with trucks and tractors like Hague did in 2000.
Go on girl!
Surely Starmer just says: I never supported this war, but you did - you own these rises.
She has categorically explained that she has been against an offensive war since day one. She says that she only ever supported the notion of a defensive war, and has castigated Starmer for his Iran War flip-floppery.
Kemi and her followers on PB and in the MSM gave Starmer and his government a very hard time for 10 days, calling him wrong for refusing Trump use of our bases for offensive missions, that these days, by not joining with US, Labour are unpatriotic compared to how they were a patriotic party after the war.
How to interpret “British Troops are just hanging around” if it’s not an attack line on the governments stance on involvement?
Also, interestingly, Labour keeping us out of this war was based on its huge failing being a political party of human rights lawyers, stupidly tied up in and in hoc to International Law. So what is the Conservative position of keeping us out of this war actually based on?
Comments
Defence Secretary signals British forces to help evacuate Britons
https://news.sky.com/video/share-13518719
This is Mainland slang for prostitute. Most embarrassing.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/1/us-israel-attacks-on-iran-death-toll-and-injuries-live-tracker
The IDF will likely accelerate to try and get their kill bonuses .
Elon Musk’s Tesla has won approval to supply electricity to households and businesses across Great Britain, as the tech billionaire expands his energy ambitions.
I intend to marshall the plentiful local old dears into a Conservative rearguard action and see them off
Seek out and humiliate.
For most people failure means losing your job. Prison even.
For the Blessed Ones, failure means a payout, followed by getting another job. A better one. With a golden hello.
To not give him a payout would be “vindictive”. It would break the moral obligation to treat him as One of Us, rather than a prole.
We were wrong not to call out the criminal acts of "double tapping" those on boats off Venezuela attacked without evidence or justification by the US. We were wrong not to call out the criminal acts of the US and Israel in attacking Iran. Standing for these principles is not always comfortable but the consequences of not doing so are cruel indeed.
Although it will need to work on the "plausible" bit.
Fiscal policy seems rather similar too. Although Reform seem to operate on the half a pint of Truss with a dash of Corbyn economic model.
Two Iranian diplomats defect: Alireza Sohbati and Mohammad Pournajaf, posted in Copenhagen and Canberra, seek asylum, joining a rising wave of Iranian officials abandoning their posts.
Probably charity stuff to start the rehabilitation - on the board of a few.
Then, after the next election, the potential prosecution will be dropped - insufficient evidence and not in the public interest….
Kemi announced in the HOC she will back Mahmoud's proposals to ensure they pass because of some labour mps opposition
To start the talk the two presenters said that they had asked Chat GPT to tell them the 3 most notable men in British Archaeology since 1900 and give a resume of their careers. With a few minor errors the answers provided were broadly correct although of course there is always room for debate in these things.
They then asked Chat GPT to do the same for the 3 most notable women over the same period. The answers duly came back along with resumes, notable achievements, positions held and papers published.
The problem was that none of these women actually existed. These were detailed answers including citations for 3 women who are no more real than Miss Marple.
Of course the lack of immediate women for Chat GPT to seek out and use is part of the problem (though there are dozens of very notable female archaeologists down the years) but it also served to illustrate the problem with LLMs. They are trained to provide answers and when they can't they just make shit up to fulfill their task.
(mutters "...Please be a stealth sequel to CE3K. Please be a stealth sequel to CE3K....)
"Iran is run by religeous lunatics!"
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0KTVDjt5hPA
https://x.com/whitehouse/status/2031895801064985021
Zelensky:
It was the Iranians who launched the first Shahed drones at Ukraine.
Russian operators did not exist; they were trained to do this.
https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2032124561001456040
Ed Miliband must step in and bar Tesla from holding an energy licence.
Elon Musk is a threat to our national security and clearly not a fit person to operate in our energy industry.
We can’t have the lights go out because he’s having a strop on X.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Strait-Is-Closed-the-Story-Keeps-Changing-and-Youre-Paying-for-It-All.html
This sums up the madness !
“We started a war that is actively enriching the country we've been sanctioning for four years, and now we're considering giving them a sanctions pass to help clean up the mess.”
The Hormuz Reckoning
And how the neglect of one aspect of naval warfare is costing us dear
https://markurban.substack.com/p/the-hormuz-reckoning
In 1936 the beat us in the final 11-0 .
We all told Boris that we didn't like Eastern Europeans and we wanted healthcare and service provision from farther afield and he obliged.
He gave us what we asked for.
They make me want to puke.
I wonder if she's thought about blockading Ebbsfleet and Fawley with trucks and tractors like Hague did in 2000.
Go on girl!
Otherwise, we don't. Human society regresses to a more violent and less free state.
They use that graphic everywhere.
I have though noticed claims, it’s the hands of Russia steering Iran to stop oil movement and force the price up a bit, on outside chance Ukraines allies will allow that situation to benefit Russia.
Also, as a catch up, are any opposition parties trying to claim it was Starmer himself that made the mistake in appointing Mandelson, to try and damage Starmer with that perception?
It’s going to play havoc with FPTP if it continues. I think this calls for another ratio, or index. Yes, let’s do an index: the election forecast obfuscation factor, or EF-OFF.
Let’s take the 2019 results as our base, 100 value. Achieved by:
- 1/STDev of the percentages for the 5 national parties plus “other” /
- highest party score / second party score
- Indexed to 100
2019 GE: 100
2024 GE: 161
Latest poll averages: 254
FON poll: 309
Latest YouGov: 373!
Given that a score of 161 in 24 already caused havoc, these current numbers are going to blow the model entirely.
https://x.com/DaTop_X/status/2032095026419773931/photo/1
https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2032115039985881556
Long time back had a riotous night out in Borth, it was all pretty tame until we passed the Friendship Inn heading back home. A well-dressed mature lady chatting on her mobile fell out of the door completely hammered, thought "why don't we have a last pint in here?", 4 hours and a lot of singing and laughter later we were chucked out
The major risk is that the forces of democracy and law don't win the next major conflict. And then we're really in the shit.
Just a few months ago it was still safe to say three voting blocks, #Reform - right of centre populist, #Kemi’s Conservatives - right of centre populist, #ProgBloc - Lab/LibDem/Green centre and left lending each other votes to defeat the right of centre candidates. I don’t think we can now include Green in ProgBloc, as Greens under this leader are Populist not Progressive, whilst once Libdem coalesced with Green in elections, Lab and LibDem should now treat Greens in exactly the same way Boris Conservatives treated UKIP: don’t work them, treat them like shit, aggressively devour their voters. Much like the crowding field of right wing Populist outfits already treating each other, syphon votes from each other to survive existential threat.
If a Psephologist claims today they have a great model for parliament seats from polls, and for a NEV from votes, I will call them a pathetic liar.
Another day, another, well, we'll see, at Cheltenham.
I come on here and read we are going to deport immigrants - I thought we already deported those whose applications for asylum were unsuccessful but it seems instead as was the case once with tax and spend, we are embarking on a dutch auction to see who can be the "hardest" on immigration. A fine example of what happens when your have Government and Opposition positions determined by focus groups and tweets rather than what is good for the country.
It also seems we want to continue with one of our stupidest moves in the past 30-40 years - there's no problem with taking infrastructure out of public hands but we sell it to foreign companies. Fine, we get a nice little sum in the coffers but longer term you end up with the spectacle of British consumers having to pay more for their electricity and gas to foreign companies who use that to subsidise the costs their home customers pay.
Poor foreign people aren't welcome but rich foreign companies are - we begrudge any money going to the former but we are happy to pay more than we should to the latter - makes no sense at all.
How to interpret “British Troops are just hanging around” if it’s not an attack line on the governments stance on involvement?
https://news.sky.com/story/pm-sitting-on-the-fence-over-iran-kemi-badenoch-claims-and-labour-is-no-longer-patriotic-13516331
Time to move to STV, as the Lib Dems have been arguing for decades.