"Britain faces defeat over EU budget increase Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
Am enjoying the spectacle over at the Guardian who broke the 'news' that Prof Hawking was boycotting a conference in Israel due to "their treatment of the Palestinians", turns out it was actually due to ill health. They even have a poll going asking whether he was right or not to boycott!
On topic, I have a lot of sympathy with Dan Hodges on this (apart from the silly odds). Ed is crap. I am convinced that a lot of people haven't yet noticed quite how crap, though they will come the General Election. That said, the cross-references between Miliband's ratings and voting intention suggest there are plenty of underwhelmed very soft Labour identifiers. The question is whether come 2015 they'll go Blue, Purple, Red or NOTA.
Every time I read a post like this I remember the posts confidently predicting a Brown epiphany to be experienced by the electorate in time for the 2010 general election.
Which did happen (sort of). The final margin was a good deal closer than the Tory leads of 2008. In any case, the difference here is that it's the opposition leader who's failed to convince. Unconvincing governments can sometimes win when the opposition's worse; unconvincing oppositions pretty much never do. The default option for the electorate is the status quo.
In all the discussion about immigration, I think the settlement numbers also tell a clearer story than the immigration numbers. There are some informative charts here:
In terms of those settling here, family migration and asylum total more than those coming to work.
From the report:
"Family settlements mainly spouses and children; most spouses granted settlement have British partner."
So the only way to restrict this would be by insisting that British people who wanted to marry the nationals of non-EU countries had to emigrate. You could do this, but it's not something I would want to do, given my own experience of falling in love with a foreigner.
How many of them are arranged marriages, however? Given that almost a third of settlement is from South Asia, I imagine a large chunk.
"Julian Cook, from Devon, said: "Our local pub looks really lovely from the outside. It's got flower baskets and a nice old fashioned sign. Unfortunately it's used by local people with accents who dress differently from me and who are, I suspect, incredibly racist."
I had a local pub - its posh flats now. In the countryside I suspect drink drive laws (my parent's generation had 'one for the road') have played a major part in their decline. In central Newcastle I celebrated the first day of relaxed licensing laws by having a drink as the carpet fitters bodged on in my nearby flat - old style place with an elderly chap nursing half a pint for most of the evening. Now its a disco pub, open two nights a week & probably taking more money now than it ever did.....
This might seem a little off topic but I had a thought earlier that Cameron will very likely face a challenger after the European elections next year, the conservatives will almost certainly come third and UKIP could potentially come first. If I was thinking about launching a leadership challenge then after a result like that and a general election in a years time would almost certainly be the opportune moment.
In all the discussion about immigration, I think the settlement numbers also tell a clearer story than the immigration numbers. There are some informative charts here:
In terms of those settling here, family migration and asylum total more than those coming to work.
From the report:
"Family settlements mainly spouses and children; most spouses granted settlement have British partner."
So the only way to restrict this would be by insisting that British people who wanted to marry the nationals of non-EU countries had to emigrate. You could do this, but it's not something I would want to do, given my own experience of falling in love with a foreigner.
I wonder how many Brits move abroad to be with partners. Then other day we were being spun the line that there were hundreds of thousands of pensioners.
A friend of mine moved to Missouri a few years ago, and another is in love with a chap from Chicago and intends to move when her children have grown up.
Another friend of mine is importing her boyfriend from the Netherlands, but then she's German, so they're both EU nationals and non-Brits anyway.
"Britain faces defeat over EU budget increase Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
But its alright - if we pay this, they'll stick to the agreed budget in the years to come.....won't they?
Looks like it could be up to £1.2bn. Yet another Cameron achievement that turns out to not come true. If it's the European Parliament blackmailing us to get this money, why can't we just let them turn down the proposed budget? The voters can make their thoughts known next year.
"Britain faces defeat over EU budget increase Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
But its alright - if we pay this, they'll stick to the agreed budget in the years to come.....won't they?
Looks like it could be up to £1.2bn. Yet another Cameron achievement that turns out to not come true. If it's the European Parliament blackmailing us to get this money, why can't we just let them turn down the proposed budget? The voters can make their thoughts known next year.
On topic, I have a lot of sympathy with Dan Hodges on this (apart from the silly odds). Ed is crap. I am convinced that a lot of people haven't yet noticed quite how crap, though they will come the General Election. That said, the cross-references between Miliband's ratings and voting intention suggest there are plenty of underwhelmed very soft Labour identifiers. The question is whether come 2015 they'll go Blue, Purple, Red or NOTA.
Every time I read a post like this I remember the posts confidently predicting a Brown epiphany to be experienced by the electorate in time for the 2010 general election.
Which did happen (sort of). The final margin was a good deal closer than the Tory leads of 2008. In any case, the difference here is that it's the opposition leader who's failed to convince. Unconvincing governments can sometimes win when the opposition's worse; unconvincing oppositions pretty much never do. The default option for the electorate is the status quo.
You must have misunderstood me. The Brown epiphany was supposed to lead to a collapse in the Labour share of the vote, not to a narrowing of the Tory lead.
I'll give you a swingback - compared to the by-election swings - but the hope that "Ed is crap" will prevent a Labour lead on votes, let alone seats, is currently looking to be heroic in its optimism, for your side.
"Britain faces defeat over EU budget increase Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
But its alright - if we pay this, they'll stick to the agreed budget in the years to come.....won't they?
Looks like it could be up to £1.2bn. Yet another Cameron achievement that turns out to not come true. If it's the European Parliament blackmailing us to get this money, why can't we just let them turn down the proposed budget? The voters can make their thoughts known next year.
I'm all up for just not paying the extra.
Right. Cameron backed down after the veto and allowed them to use EU resources for the new treaty. It's about time he stood his ground. We negotiated a flat budget. That isn't an excuse for these MEPs, on the gravy train with their £200k a year salary plus expenses, to squeeze even more money out of the hurting British taxpayer.
In all the discussion about immigration, I think the settlement numbers also tell a clearer story than the immigration numbers. There are some informative charts here:
In terms of those settling here, family migration and asylum total more than those coming to work.
From the report:
"Family settlements mainly spouses and children; most spouses granted settlement have British partner."
So the only way to restrict this would be by insisting that British people who wanted to marry the nationals of non-EU countries had to emigrate. You could do this, but it's not something I would want to do, given my own experience of falling in love with a foreigner.
I wonder how many Brits move abroad to be with partners. Then other day we were being spun the line that there were hundreds of thousands of pensioners.
Three of my schoolfriends married foreigners and all were happy to live abroad. Obviously, circumstances are different from couple to couple but I don't see the problem in insisting on minimum standards even when someone wishes to immigrate due to marriage.
"As well as voting intention YouGov also had a poll this morning on attitudes to Europe, asked on the back of Nigel Lawson coming out in favour of withdrawal from the EU. The poll had 46% saying they would vote to leave the EU, 35% that they would vote to stay. This is pretty typical of recent YouGov polling on a EU referendum which for the last couple of months has tended to show an “OUT” lead of between 7 and 11 points. Last year polls were showing much bigger leads for “OUT”, but they narrowed dramatically in January when Cameron made his referendum pledge before settling down at around their current levels.
On topic, I have a lot of sympathy with Dan Hodges on this (apart from the silly odds). Ed is crap. I am convinced that a lot of people haven't yet noticed quite how crap, though they will come the General Election. That said, the cross-references between Miliband's ratings and voting intention suggest there are plenty of underwhelmed very soft Labour identifiers. The question is whether come 2015 they'll go Blue, Purple, Red or NOTA.
Every time I read a post like this I remember the posts confidently predicting a Brown epiphany to be experienced by the electorate in time for the 2010 general election.
Which did happen (sort of). The final margin was a good deal closer than the Tory leads of 2008. In any case, the difference here is that it's the opposition leader who's failed to convince. Unconvincing governments can sometimes win when the opposition's worse; unconvincing oppositions pretty much never do. The default option for the electorate is the status quo.
You must have misunderstood me. The Brown epiphany was supposed to lead to a collapse in the Labour share of the vote, not to a narrowing of the Tory lead.
I'll give you a swingback - compared to the by-election swings - but the hope that "Ed is crap" will prevent a Labour lead on votes, let alone seats, is currently looking to be heroic in its optimism, for your side.
There was a Brown epiphany that led to a collapse in the Labour vote though. It happened following the Election That Never Was.
The polls prior to then showed a Labour majority would happen.
O/T there's an excellent summary of the County Council elections results from Andy JS. Only the figures for Suffolk, Somerset and Isle of Wight remain to be added.
Once we have those, the overall numbers will probably be something like Conservative 35%, Labour and UKIP 21% each, Lib Dem 14%, Others 9%. For those who wonder why the Conservatives are still committed to FPTP, this vote share gave them 50% of the seats.
Right. The government has done some good things, like strengthen the need for English language skills for family migrants. Unfortunately things to stop some of the forced marriages, like limiting marriage visas to over 21 year olds, was prevented by the European courts. Even non-EU immigration policy isn't fully in the UK government's hands any more.
"Britain faces defeat over EU budget increase Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
But its alright - if we pay this, they'll stick to the agreed budget in the years to come.....won't they?
Looks like it could be up to £1.2bn. Yet another Cameron achievement that turns out to not come true. If it's the European Parliament blackmailing us to get this money, why can't we just let them turn down the proposed budget? The voters can make their thoughts known next year.
I'm all up for just not paying the extra.
So what's to stop Brussels from overspending on the revised budget and just presenting the bill in future years?
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 10m Oh dear. Two long consultations needed on Immigration Bill; landlords and NHS. Means PMOS unable to say will get assent by Jan 2014.
Come on everybody, lets all sing the song, you know the words by now
O/T there's an excellent summary of the County Council elections results from Andy JS. Only the figures for Suffolk, Somerset and Isle of Wight remain to be added.
Once we have those, the overall numbers will probably be something like Conservative 35%, Labour and UKIP 21% each, Lib Dem 14%, Others 9%. For those who wonder why the Conservatives are still committed to FPTP, this vote share gave them 50% of the seats.
So why was UKIP calculated to have a "National Projected Vote Share" of 23%?
Surely UKIP would on average do worse in areas which didn't have Locals last week?
Scotland yes, probably London too. However, it's worth noting that UKIP polled 24% in South Shields, which follows from similarly creditable scores in places like Rotherham. The idea that Farage's party is attractive only spluttering Daily Mail types in the shires is far from the truth.
"Britain faces defeat over EU budget increase Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
But its alright - if we pay this, they'll stick to the agreed budget in the years to come.....won't they?
Looks like it could be up to £1.2bn. Yet another Cameron achievement that turns out to not come true. If it's the European Parliament blackmailing us to get this money, why can't we just let them turn down the proposed budget? The voters can make their thoughts known next year.
I'm all up for just not paying the extra.
So what's to stop Brussels from overspending on the revised budget and just presenting the bill in future years?
Good question. It's the old CAP con all over again. We pay more now in exchange for getting something later, and yet the something later will never materialise.
Questions Labour HQ need to resolve that were put to them at the recent Grantham event for all labour party organisers.
1) If you could have one voter who would it be; the dartford guy who is small conservative but voted labour under blair or the bakewell lady who is diehard labour but stopped voting after 2001?
I think Ed has a credibility problem. Basically he's softy Walter and the thought of him negotiating with foreign grown-ups is painful. Gordon may have been as mad as a hatter but he was an adult.
Labour did have a few other options - why did they pick the child?
'Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
Any idea how many net contributor countries there are in the EU? .
O/T there's an excellent summary of the County Council elections results from Andy JS. Only the figures for Suffolk, Somerset and Isle of Wight remain to be added.
Once we have those, the overall numbers will probably be something like Conservative 35%, Labour and UKIP 21% each, Lib Dem 14%, Others 9%. For those who wonder why the Conservatives are still committed to FPTP, this vote share gave them 50% of the seats.
So why was UKIP calculated to have a "National Projected Vote Share" of 23%?
Surely UKIP would on average do worse in areas which didn't have Locals last week?
Possibly because UKIP only contested around 75% of these seats and the NEV calculation assumed an increase in % because of this which more than compensated for the areas not having local elections being weaker . The NEV calculation in any case is shrouded in secrecy and not guaranteed to be correct .
"Britain faces defeat over EU budget increase Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
But its alright - if we pay this, they'll stick to the agreed budget in the years to come.....won't they?
Looks like it could be up to £1.2bn. Yet another Cameron achievement that turns out to not come true. If it's the European Parliament blackmailing us to get this money, why can't we just let them turn down the proposed budget? The voters can make their thoughts known next year.
The issue, as I understand it, is that if the proposed 5-year budget is rejected then the default situation returns of annual budget negotiations, which are subject not to unanimity but to qualified majority voting, which as we see in this case can lead to Britain being outvoted. So if the Council of Ministers were to reject the Parliament's position (which they seem minded not to do anyway), the outcome would probably be higher spending. The basic problem is that there is not a settled EU consensus among either elected governments or elected MEPs for a spending cut.
But yes, the way the deal was sold by Cameron was built on sand, as per usual.
I also like how the Eurocrats are forcing huge economic pain on Spain, Greece etc to punish them for their overspending, while waving through a £10bn overspend. Clearly subsidies to farmers and expense accounts are more important than schools and hospitals.
I think Ed has a credibility problem. Basically he's softy Walter and the thought of him negotiating with foreign grown-ups is painful. Gordon may have been as mad as a hatter but he was an adult.
Labour did have a few other options - why did they pick the child?
2) Why don't you follow the obama/clinton democratic party model of building up your base in the north and midlands and create a firewall where its impossible for the tory party to win no matter the circumstances? Wisconsin, Pennslyvania and Michigan are now 20 years in the democratic column and they went from being marginals to solid democratic states where it became a fools gold to campaign there. Forget pandering to the south, put all the resources into lancashire, yorkshire and the midlands and make it impossible for the tories ever to have a majority again.
The issue, as I understand it, is that if the proposed 5-year budget is rejected then the default situation returns of annual budget negotiations, which are subject not to unanimity but to qualified majority voting, which as we see in this case can lead to Britain being outvoted. So if the Council of Ministers were to reject the Parliament's position (which they seem minded not to do anyway), the outcome would probably be higher spending. The basic problem is that there is not a settled EU consensus among either elected governments or elected MEPs for a spending cut.
So we can either agree to hand over billions of our money now, or get billions taken from us without our consent later?
Ladies and gentlemen, I present you the European Union.
2) Why don't you follow the obama/clinton democratic party model of building up your base in the north and midlands and create a firewall where its impossible for the tory party to win no matter the circumstances? Wisconsin, Pennslyvania and Michigan are now 20 years in the democratic column and they went from being marginals to solid democratic states where it became a fools gold to campaign there. Forget pandering to the south, put all the resources into lancashire, yorkshire and the midlands and make it impossible for the tories ever to have a majority again.
The problem for village pubs is that they are pricey and don't offer much to make up for that. When there were 3 TV channels, the internet did not exist and drink drive laws were less strict they had a lot more going for them. The equivalent of pubs are closing across the world.
village pubs that do good food are still busy, I think that is the way for them to go
Also pubs that show 3pm Saturday football are popular
basically, boozers need to provide something you can't get at home
"Britain faces defeat over EU budget increase Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
But its alright - if we pay this, they'll stick to the agreed budget in the years to come.....won't they?
Looks like it could be up to £1.2bn. Yet another Cameron achievement that turns out to not come true. If it's the European Parliament blackmailing us to get this money, why can't we just let them turn down the proposed budget? The voters can make their thoughts known next year.
The issue, as I understand it, is that if the proposed 5-year budget is rejected then the default situation returns of annual budget negotiations, which are subject not to unanimity but to qualified majority voting, which as we see in this case can lead to Britain being outvoted. So if the Council of Ministers were to reject the Parliament's position (which they seem minded not to do anyway), the outcome would probably be higher spending. The basic problem is that there is not a settled EU consensus among either elected governments or elected MEPs for a spending cut.
But yes, the way the deal was sold by Cameron was built on sand, as per usual.
As another poster said Nick, a bit like Tony's (sorry Labour party's) negotiation giving up part of Maggies rebate for a vague promise on action on the CAP, which never happened. Trustworthy these Europeans aren't they.
I also like how the Eurocrats are forcing huge economic pain on Spain, Greece etc to punish them for their overspending, while waving through a £10bn overspend. Clearly subsidies to farmers and expense accounts are more important than schools and hospitals.
Give Europe a budget that it has to fund through its own taxes and then you give it a deficit/surplus and a motivation to control spending.
Since the EU is currently funded through grants from the national governments it lacks the budgetary discipline of being responsible for raising that money.
Even as a righty, I fail to see the point of all the 'ed is crap' mudslinging. It's beside the point. The numbers are currently that Ed doesn't have to be good to win. He could be the cr*ppest leader in Christendom but as things stand, that won;t stop him being prime minister.
The problem for village pubs is that they are pricey and don't offer much to make up for that. When there were 3 TV channels, the internet did not exist and drink drive laws were less strict they had a lot more going for them. The equivalent of pubs are closing across the world.
village pubs that do good food are still busy, I think that is the way for them to go
Also pubs that show 3pm Saturday football are popular
basically, boozers need to provide something you can't get at home
live music is another option
The pub I go to back home is great. On a Sunday afternoons they bring out complementary cheeses and baked potatoes, so you can prop yourself at the bar and get drunk while snacking on delicious free food!
No referendum pledge but Queen's Speech does contain backing for EU 'propaganda' promoting the virtues of Brussels
Cameron under pressure to bring forward in-out referendum Buried in Queen's Speech is European Union Approvals Speech It authorises Europe for Citizens scheme developing 'understanding' of EU
I also like how the Eurocrats are forcing huge economic pain on Spain, Greece etc to punish them for their overspending, while waving through a £10bn overspend. Clearly subsidies to farmers and expense accounts are more important than schools and hospitals.
Give Europe a budget that it has to fund through its own taxes and then you give it a deficit/surplus and a motivation to control spending.
Since the EU is currently funded through grants from the national governments it lacks the budgetary discipline of being responsible for raising that money.
If we restrict the tax base to being EU employees only, I'm all for it.
I also like how the Eurocrats are forcing huge economic pain on Spain, Greece etc to punish them for their overspending, while waving through a £10bn overspendgrant to France. Clearly subsidies to farmers and expense accounts are more important than schools and hospitals.
Wisconsin may be trending Republican, Pa much as it ever was and only Mi trending Dem, maybe.
They have said that for the last decade that wisconsin was treading republican. Every time we have a presidential campaign, the republicans pour into the state, bush spent millions lost both in 00 amd 04 due to a massive democratic farmer union turnout. While obama connected with the white collars voters and expanded the voter registration gap in green bay turning it republican to democrat nullifying waukesha county. Romney picked ryan as again the republicans thought ryan could carry the state. Didn't work out. Tommy thompson former governor extremely popular got taking to the cleaners by an extreme liberal in tammy baldwin. She represented the madison area in congress extremely liberal.
Pennslyvania has always been fools gold. They pick up seats in the state/local elections gain hope polling looks good. The democrats dont campaign there, the republicans say its close, polling shows its close, still democrats dont go there. Day before election both mccain and romney visit pennsylvania. Result....pennsylvania goes obama 08. pennslyvania goes obama 12. Even in 2004, despite all those visits, all those bus tours, gay marriage, 9/11...kerry wins pennslyvania.
Creating firewalls is the key to electoral succuess. Labour have to build firewalls
STOP PANDERING TO THE SOUTH..FIGHT FOR EVERY VOTE IN EVERY VILLAGE/TOWN/CITY IN THE MIDLANDS/NORTH. they will vote labour if you knock on their door and ask for their vote and stop pandering to the southern voter who is naturally small conservative.
The problem for village pubs is that they are pricey and don't offer much to make up for that. When there were 3 TV channels, the internet did not exist and drink drive laws were less strict they had a lot more going for them. The equivalent of pubs are closing across the world.
village pubs that do good food are still busy, I think that is the way for them to go
Also pubs that show 3pm Saturday football are popular
basically, boozers need to provide something you can't get at home
live music is another option
The pub I go to back home is great. On a Sunday afternoons they bring out complementary cheeses and baked potatoes, so you can prop yourself at the bar and get drunk while snacking on delicious free food!
In many cases it does not matter whether a pub is profitable or not , if planning permission is available to turn it into a block of flats then it will be closed . There are several pubs in Sussex that have gone some were struggling some successful but all worth more by converting than staying as a pub .
In other shocking news, the immigration bill revealed to be empty posturing for gullible tory MPs.
Immigration bill – the devil's in the detail
Clamping down on migrants' access to benefits makes for easy headlines in the Queen's speech, but agreeing on how it should work in practice will prove much harder
I also like how the Eurocrats are forcing huge economic pain on Spain, Greece etc to punish them for their overspending, while waving through a £10bn overspend. Clearly subsidies to farmers and expense accounts are more important than schools and hospitals.
Give Europe a budget that it has to fund through its own taxes and then you give it a deficit/surplus and a motivation to control spending.
Since the EU is currently funded through grants from the national governments it lacks the budgetary discipline of being responsible for raising that money.
While there is some sense in that, on logical terms, that is surely a rubicon that no-one would cross.
Nadine welcomed back home to her family after denying that she had been taken captive by the kippers.
Speccie exclusive:
"Nadine Dorries has been given the Conservative whip back by Sir George Young, Coffee House can exclusively reveal. Sources in the Tory party tell me that the MP, who was suspended in November for appearing on the reality TV show I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!, has just been told she can now return from exile."
If anyone was wondering why I was bothering to do spreadsheets with the local election results, the answer is very simple: they weren't available anywhere else in that form.
Lord Ashcroft tweets: "Excellent news that @NadineDorriesMP is now "whipped" back into the fold. Was getting "nasty". defection Would have been a coup for UKIP."
Wisconsin may be trending Republican, Pa much as it ever was and only Mi trending Dem, maybe.
They have said that for the last decade that wisconsin was treading republican. Every time we have a presidential campaign, the republicans pour into the state, bush spent millions lost both in 00 amd 04 due to a massive democratic farmer union turnout. While obama connected with the white collars voters and expanded the voter registration gap in green bay turning it republican to democrat nullifying waukesha county. Romney picked ryan as again the republicans thought ryan could carry the state. Didn't work out. Tommy thompson former governor extremely popular got taking to the cleaners by an extreme liberal in tammy baldwin. She represented the madison area in congress extremely liberal.
Pennslyvania has always been fools gold. They pick up seats in the state/local elections gain hope polling looks good. The democrats dont campaign there, the republicans say its close, polling shows its close, still democrats dont go there. Day before election both mccain and romney visit pennsylvania. Result....pennsylvania goes obama 08. pennslyvania goes obama 12. Even in 2004, despite all those visits, all those bus tours, gay marriage, 9/11...kerry wins pennslyvania.
Creating firewalls is the key to electoral succuess. Labour have to build firewalls
STOP PANDERING TO THE SOUTH..FIGHT FOR EVERY VOTE IN EVERY VILLAGE/TOWN/CITY IN THE MIDLANDS/NORTH. they will vote labour if you knock on their door and ask for their vote and stop pandering to the southern voter who is naturally small conservative.
So Labour's master wheeze is to Balkanise the country. The labour bits that don't do economic growth hold the rest to ransom ?
Wisconsin may be trending Republican, Pa much as it ever was and only Mi trending Dem, maybe.
They have said that for the last decade that wisconsin was treading republican. Every time we have a presidential campaign, the republicans pour into the state, bush spent millions lost both in 00 amd 04 due to a massive democratic farmer union turnout. While obama connected with the white collars voters and expanded the voter registration gap in green bay turning it republican to democrat nullifying waukesha county. Romney picked ryan as again the republicans thought ryan could carry the state. Didn't work out. Tommy thompson former governor extremely popular got taking to the cleaners by an extreme liberal in tammy baldwin. She represented the madison area in congress extremely liberal.
Pennslyvania has always been fools gold. They pick up seats in the state/local elections gain hope polling looks good. The democrats dont campaign there, the republicans say its close, polling shows its close, still democrats dont go there. Day before election both mccain and romney visit pennsylvania. Result....pennsylvania goes obama 08. pennslyvania goes obama 12. Even in 2004, despite all those visits, all those bus tours, gay marriage, 9/11...kerry wins pennslyvania.
Creating firewalls is the key to electoral succuess. Labour have to build firewalls
STOP PANDERING TO THE SOUTH..FIGHT FOR EVERY VOTE IN EVERY VILLAGE/TOWN/CITY IN THE MIDLANDS/NORTH. they will vote labour if you knock on their door and ask for their vote and stop pandering to the southern voter who is naturally small conservative.
What do you offer them, a blank sheet of paper? or a pig in a poke (note to canvassers: may not go down well in some constituencies)
We have not yet been told what Coalition changes (Spare room subsidy? benefit cap? loosening of migration rules? undoing Lansleys reforms? cutting tuition fees? etc etc) would be reveresed by a Labour government.
Until we know what Labour austerity looks like, voters will give them short shrift, or be lied to.
Lord Ashcroft tweets: "Excellent news that @NadineDorriesMP is now "whipped" back into the fold. Was getting "nasty". defection Would have been a coup for UKIP."
Next she'll be writing an X-rated book about it...
ShippersUnbound We have a government with few ideas and an opposition with few policies. Can we just have a general election now so they have to get some?
To be fair, both the Lib Dems and Tories have quite a few policies. Unfortunately, neither party will support the other's and you end with a classic example of the total being decidedly less than the sum of its parts.
have they never heard of negotiating or doing a deal ? In the rest of the world it's often how you get things done.
To be fair, in the real world you can only negotiate a deal if you can trust the other side not to back out after signing.
I said they were trending. In 1988 the Reps were -5 off national share in Wisconsin. In 2012 -1. Hence the trend.
1) Look at how much they spent in wisconsin in 1988 to 2012. Value for money?
2) Look at the amount of resources poured into one state that have put little electoral value - a vp pick - hundreds of millions of dollars no victory.
I was assured it was 'nothing to worry about' and all a 'fuss about nothing'.....
The irony being that it's potentially an even more serious problem for the rest of the UK than it would be for an independent Scotland.
For some companies in the rest of the UK.....I did not see a breakdown of how many companies would be affected - but presumably a company with a headquarters in Scotland, but many more pensioners in England (at a guess RBS, for example) will be particularly challenged.....
ShippersUnbound We have a government with few ideas and an opposition with few policies. Can we just have a general election now so they have to get some?
To be fair, both the Lib Dems and Tories have quite a few policies. Unfortunately, neither party will support the other's and you end with a classic example of the total being decidedly less than the sum of its parts.
have they never heard of negotiating or doing a deal ? In the rest of the world it's often how you get things done.
To be fair, in the real world you can only negotiate a deal if you can trust the other side not to back out after signing.
silly partisan post Charles, they'd say that on AV.
The parties probably do collate the information - but privately. (A bit petty-minded if true). I think it should be available to everyone.
I think a democracy/elections section on gov.uk with information/stats about all elections would be a worthy addition. I guess getting councils to return results to one centralised location with a standardised schema would be tricky.
The eastern european woman is the silent voter we are forgetting about. They are now marrying of to an english man with english parents and they are providing a grandchild. Criticising eastern europeans for coming here is the wrong group. Its pakistani asians whose culture has come and offended the british way of life not eastern europeans. They like the irish and italians have embraced our society and in a way have a stronger sense of family values and are making english men happy.
How right you are. You were also right re. the gene pool ....
I think that is v unfair to Pakistanis and Asians. Any group of people that move en masse to another country where conditions are better for them are likely tô stick together and form large communities that dont bear any resemblance to the existing culture.
It's the politicians that allowed it and the people that vote for them that are to blame
Yesh, but there's no need to marry your first cousin. On the other hand, some people marry their i-pads or smart-phones .... but at least this doesn't give 10 times the average UK frequency of birth disabilities which the cousin-marrying generates.
presumably a company with a headquarters in Scotland, but many more pensioners in England (at a guess RBS, for example) will be particularly challenged.....
No, the split in membership doesnt matter, just the fact that there are members in different jurisdictions.
The reason schemes in the rest of the UK could be hit worse is because of the way it has incorporated the IORP directive into domestic law (very little leeway). Whereas Scotland has potentially more of an opportunity to write some flexibility into its new domestic arrangements. I'm speculating there, obviously.
Swinney's response was deeply unimpressive though and Salmond hasnt managed to back up his assertion that there would be no difference in the length of recovery plans. Suddenly the Scottish government's paper on pensions could be more important than anyone anticipated.
For a party supposedly close to a majority at the next election, I thought the Labour benches looked very gloomy when Cameron laid out their record on open-door mass low-level "nie mowie nic po Angielsku" immigration. I notice though many chocolate-skinned French speakers in Birmingham .... are we generous on benefits? Or iis it that we have a free International Treasure in the NHS?
If there's one thing the Electoral Commission ought to be doing, it's collating the information from elections like last Thursday's. Unfortunately they seem to do everything else except that, spending huge sums of money in the process.
Of course we had the same problem with the US presidential results. Despite it being the most important election on the globe, there wasn't a central website collating the latest results from each state. People rely on the US TV networks to do the job, but as soon as the winner is projected they tend to lose interest and don't bother to update the totals.
What do you offer them, a blank sheet of paper? or a pig in a poke (note to canvassers: may not go down well in some constituencies)
We have not yet been told what Coalition changes (Spare room subsidy? benefit cap? loosening of migration rules? undoing Lansleys reforms? cutting tuition fees? etc etc) would be reveresed by a Labour government.
Until we know what Labour austerity looks like, voters will give them short shrift, or be lied to.
How about offer the midlands and northern villages/towns and cities a reversal of a decade of margaret thatcher.
Pour every penny, give private sector companies incentives to base in these regions bringing jobs and prosperity. Crushing the south at every opportunity, creating mass unemployment in the south and promting them to move to the north.
How about build up the infrastructure of the north/midlands? How about putting the people in northern/midland england first like thatcher did with the south.
STOP PANDERING TO THE SOUTH they are disloyal. give them 10 years of what thatcher gave the north and scotland. hammer dorset, wiltshire into oblivion and leave them to rot while derbyshire, notts, leics, merseyside, lancashire boom.
the country will be better with a thriving northern britain and we will then be able to pay our way. I
presumably a company with a headquarters in Scotland, but many more pensioners in England (at a guess RBS, for example) will be particularly challenged.....
Suddenly the Scottish government's paper on pensions could be more important than anyone anticipated.
The official UKIP web site has been hacked. Time is now being taken for a complete re-design.
"UKIP appologises that due to sabatage and foul play the main UKIP website is unavailable the situation is currently being rectified it should be back up later! UKIP is using opportunity to revamp the site while the situation is being rectified"
It will be sometime between now and the referendum. The SNP cant afford to go into a campaign with members of every major private sector pension scheme wondering whether independence might cause their pension scheme to close and only having Salmond's assertion that it wont. It's not a lot of people but it's probably nearly 200,000 not including spouses.
AndyJS - great info on the voting last week, but made me wonder how the projected national vote share of 23% for UKIP comes about.
These area are surely about as UKIP friendly as you'd get - rural mid/south England, yet the actual percentage on real votes was 20% - that would mean that UKIP would have to poll at greater than 23% in less friendly areas such as London, or urban north or Scotland to achieve this which doesn't seem credible.
Also note that the Tory actual vote was 34%, but factored down to 25% in the national predictions, surely UKIP should go in the same direction.
One final point, in low turn out elections (such as last week) I imagine that the hard core elderly voters are even more disproportionately likely to vote, and also more likely to vote UKIP. If this were a general election with a 60-70% turnout that is going to bring far more younger people to the polls who didn't vote last week than older ones. So again this suggests to me that the UKIP level of support is somewhat inflated compared to what might happen in a UK-wide election with a high turnout.
Shows how little the yanks know about football. This is almost certainly the end of an era. United will remain a strong club but the days of winning the title every other year are over.
AndyJS - great info on the voting last week, but made me wonder how the projected national vote share of 23% for UKIP comes about.
These area are surely about as UKIP friendly as you'd get - rural mid/south England, yet the actual percentage on real votes was 20% - that would mean that UKIP would have to poll at greater than that in less friendly areas such as London, or urban north or Scotland to achieve this which doesn't seem credible.
Also note that the Tory actual vote was 34%, but factored down to 25% in the national predictions, surely UKIP should go in the same direction.
One final point, in low turn out elections (such as last week) I imagine that the hard core elderly voters are even more disproportionately likely to vote, and also more likely to vote UKIP. If this were a general election with a 60-70% turnout that is going to bring far more younger people to the polls who didn't vote last week than older ones. So again this suggests to me that the UKIP level of support is somewhat inflated compared to what might happen in a UK-wide election with a high turnout.
I gave a possible answer to your query up thread . It is possibly down to UKIP only contesting 75% or so of the seats last week .
The official UKIP web site has been hacked. Time is now being taken for a complete re-design.
"UKIP appologises that due to sabatage and foul play the main UKIP website is unavailable the situation is currently being rectified it should be back up later! UKIP is using opportunity to revamp the site while the situation is being rectified"
They were showing a Plesk welcome page earlier.
During the 2009 EU elections the Conservatives website crashed, and they muttered away about DDoS attacks. It looked more like a traffic spike.
It is so odd that there isn't a common reporting format for the election results. Have you managed to find data on postal votes issued and returned; and spoilt papers?
Comments
"Britain faces defeat over EU budget increase
Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10044392/Britain-faces-defeat-over-EU-budget-increase.html
But its alright - if we pay this, they'll stick to the agreed budget in the years to come.....won't they?
Talk about egg on face.
I had a local pub - its posh flats now. In the countryside I suspect drink drive laws (my parent's generation had 'one for the road') have played a major part in their decline. In central Newcastle I celebrated the first day of relaxed licensing laws by having a drink as the carpet fitters bodged on in my nearby flat - old style place with an elderly chap nursing half a pint for most of the evening. Now its a disco pub, open two nights a week & probably taking more money now than it ever did.....
Another friend of mine is importing her boyfriend from the Netherlands, but then she's German, so they're both EU nationals and non-Brits anyway.
Ed is no longer working from a blank sheet of paper...
@PennyMordauntMP: Brave of Red Ed to focus so much on fag packets in his speech. :-)
I'll give you a swingback - compared to the by-election swings - but the hope that "Ed is crap" will prevent a Labour lead on votes, let alone seats, is currently looking to be heroic in its optimism, for your side.
This is precisely the sort of thing that convinces me we're better off out.
Scottish independence ‘would lead to higher energy bills’
Experts warn of ramifications of supply security issues
http://www.uswitch.com/gas-electricity/news/2013/05/08/scottish-independence-would-lead-to-higher-energy-bills/
"As well as voting intention YouGov also had a poll this morning on attitudes to Europe, asked on the back of Nigel Lawson coming out in favour of withdrawal from the EU. The poll had 46% saying they would vote to leave the EU, 35% that they would vote to stay. This is pretty typical of recent YouGov polling on a EU referendum which for the last couple of months has tended to show an “OUT” lead of between 7 and 11 points. Last year polls were showing much bigger leads for “OUT”, but they narrowed dramatically in January when Cameron made his referendum pledge before settling down at around their current levels.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7404
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10041817/Federal-Europe-will-be-a-reality-in-a-few-years-says-Jose-Manuel-Barroso.html
The polls prior to then showed a Labour majority would happen.
Surely UKIP would on average do worse in areas which didn't have Locals last week?
Right. The government has done some good things, like strengthen the need for English language skills for family migrants. Unfortunately things to stop some of the forced marriages, like limiting marriage visas to over 21 year olds, was prevented by the European courts. Even non-EU immigration policy isn't fully in the UK government's hands any more.
http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2013/may/mammoth-task-to-split-pension-funds-for-companies-operating-in-an-independent-scotland-says-expert/
1) If you could have one voter who would it be; the dartford guy who is small conservative but voted labour under blair or the bakewell lady who is diehard labour but stopped voting after 2001?
2) W
I think Ed has a credibility problem. Basically he's softy Walter and the thought of him negotiating with foreign grown-ups is painful. Gordon may have been as mad as a hatter but he was an adult.
Labour did have a few other options - why did they pick the child?
'Britain is facing defeat over David Cameron's attempts to control the EU's spending as finance ministers prepare to vote through a £6.2 billion increase in this year's Brussels budget next week."
Any idea how many net contributor countries there are in the EU? .
But yes, the way the deal was sold by Cameron was built on sand, as per usual.
Ed cried
That is all.
Ladies and gentlemen, I present you the European Union.
Since the EU is currently funded through grants from the national governments it lacks the budgetary discipline of being responsible for raising that money.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=NHWjlCaIrQo#t=199s
The master strategy continues apace.
Pennslyvania has always been fools gold. They pick up seats in the state/local elections gain hope polling looks good. The democrats dont campaign there, the republicans say its close, polling shows its close, still democrats dont go there. Day before election both mccain and romney visit pennsylvania. Result....pennsylvania goes obama 08. pennslyvania goes obama 12. Even in 2004, despite all those visits, all those bus tours, gay marriage, 9/11...kerry wins pennslyvania.
Creating firewalls is the key to electoral succuess. Labour have to build firewalls
STOP PANDERING TO THE SOUTH..FIGHT FOR EVERY VOTE IN EVERY VILLAGE/TOWN/CITY IN THE MIDLANDS/NORTH. they will vote labour if you knock on their door and ask for their vote and stop pandering to the southern voter who is naturally small conservative.
It wasn’t Keynes’ homosexuality that made him cavalier about future generations – it was his eugenicism
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/brendanoneill2/100215768/it-wasnt-keynes-homosexuality-that-made-him-cavalier-about-future-generations-it-was-his-eugenicism/
"Nadine Dorries has been given the Conservative whip back by Sir George Young, Coffee House can exclusively reveal. Sources in the Tory party tell me that the MP, who was suspended in November for appearing on the reality TV show I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!, has just been told she can now return from exile."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/exclusive-nadine-dorries-reinstated-as-a-tory-mp/
@RobD
"I wonder if some sort of centralised local elections website is in order.... "
I don't think it will happen because they wouldn't spend money on something only a small number of people would be interested in looking at.
I really am starting to wonder whether Labour is actually going to blow 2015.
Should make an interesting Civil War.
We have not yet been told what Coalition changes (Spare room subsidy? benefit cap? loosening of migration rules? undoing Lansleys reforms? cutting tuition fees? etc etc) would be reveresed by a Labour government.
Until we know what Labour austerity looks like, voters will give them short shrift, or be lied to.
The parties probably do collate the information - but privately. (A bit petty-minded if true). I think it should be available to everyone.
2) Look at the amount of resources poured into one state that have put little electoral value
- a vp pick
- hundreds of millions of dollars no victory.
Northants:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFZXQnBLTWNaNUN6YlFzQWRfU25qSHc#gid=0
Lincs:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHVhWDR5UnEwN05FWHFiR0hMQzhmX2c#gid=0
Dorset:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dExxNjV4VHczRXlINTZBdl80NjlKcmc#gid=0
East Sussex:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDdrVS1yQV85SUVwRV9GNFAyOTk0anc#gid=0
Staffs:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHhKUk9GU1d5R3pIUzdHZ09ZNzAtLUE#gid=0
Norfolk:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFpySDhGdGFDMjY5ZGZtcTdOSW16UWc#gid=0
Cornwall:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dC02dFJobkdWY1E1VTBiaWFiN3EwOFE#gid=0
Essex:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDIySUJiWThFM3gxcWEyNll4Rkx0Mnc#gid=0
Totals:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFzVlVSWGtOaGlNQllBQjBmVzc0Mnc#gid=0
The reason schemes in the rest of the UK could be hit worse is because of the way it has incorporated the IORP directive into domestic law (very little leeway). Whereas Scotland has potentially more of an opportunity to write some flexibility into its new domestic arrangements. I'm speculating there, obviously.
Swinney's response was deeply unimpressive though and Salmond hasnt managed to back up his assertion that there would be no difference in the length of recovery plans. Suddenly the Scottish government's paper on pensions could be more important than anyone anticipated.
If there's one thing the Electoral Commission ought to be doing, it's collating the information from elections like last Thursday's. Unfortunately they seem to do everything else except that, spending huge sums of money in the process.
Of course we had the same problem with the US presidential results. Despite it being the most important election on the globe, there wasn't a central website collating the latest results from each state. People rely on the US TV networks to do the job, but as soon as the winner is projected they tend to lose interest and don't bother to update the totals.
What do you offer them, a blank sheet of paper? or a pig in a poke (note to canvassers: may not go down well in some constituencies)
We have not yet been told what Coalition changes (Spare room subsidy? benefit cap? loosening of migration rules? undoing Lansleys reforms? cutting tuition fees? etc etc) would be reveresed by a Labour government.
Until we know what Labour austerity looks like, voters will give them short shrift, or be lied to.
How about offer the midlands and northern villages/towns and cities a reversal of a decade of margaret thatcher.
Pour every penny, give private sector companies incentives to base in these regions bringing jobs and prosperity. Crushing the south at every opportunity, creating mass unemployment in the south and promting them to move to the north.
How about build up the infrastructure of the north/midlands? How about putting the people in northern/midland england first like thatcher did with the south.
STOP PANDERING TO THE SOUTH they are disloyal. give them 10 years of what thatcher gave the north and scotland. hammer dorset, wiltshire into oblivion and leave them to rot while derbyshire, notts, leics, merseyside, lancashire boom.
the country will be better with a thriving northern britain and we will then be able to pay our way.
I
http://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/Article.aspx/3230494
The ultimate Heineken challenge!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_Donside_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0
"UKIP appologises that due to sabatage and foul play the main UKIP website is unavailable the situation is currently being rectified it should be back up later! UKIP is using opportunity to revamp the site while the situation is being rectified"
Funny how you're not dwelling on Ed's performance....'The weak are a long time in politics'....
you forgot to nuke London.
These area are surely about as UKIP friendly as you'd get - rural mid/south England, yet the actual percentage on real votes was 20% - that would mean that UKIP would have to poll at greater than 23% in less friendly areas such as London, or urban north or Scotland to achieve this which doesn't seem credible.
Also note that the Tory actual vote was 34%, but factored down to 25% in the national predictions, surely UKIP should go in the same direction.
One final point, in low turn out elections (such as last week) I imagine that the hard core elderly voters are even more disproportionately likely to vote, and also more likely to vote UKIP. If this were a general election with a 60-70% turnout that is going to bring far more younger people to the polls who didn't vote last week than older ones. So again this suggests to me that the UKIP level of support is somewhat inflated compared to what might happen in a UK-wide election with a high turnout.
Shows how little the yanks know about football. This is almost certainly the end of an era. United will remain a strong club but the days of winning the title every other year are over.
During the 2009 EU elections the Conservatives website crashed, and they muttered away about DDoS attacks. It looked more like a traffic spike.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/04/opposition_website_ddos/
It is so odd that there isn't a common reporting format for the election results. Have you managed to find data on postal votes issued and returned; and spoilt papers?
What is the point of The EC?