Is this confidence or hubris from Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

System

Is this confidence or hubris from Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

Starmer says the by-election is a “battle of values” between Reform and Labour. Hits out at the Greens for wanting to legalise all drugs and says a vote for them could hand the constituency to Reform

Read the full story here

Taz

First like Labour in G and D

DecrepiterJohnL

Keir's been on Betfair and backed Labour from 11 this morning to 8 (7/1 in old money).

Edit: 6.2 now.

Taz

Farage’s Cunning Stunt !!

Naughty of you there, TSE 😉

Sunil_Prasannan

Taz said:

First like Labour in G and D

Hubris or confidence!

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, I refuse to believe a lawyer would display hubris.

rottenborough

Taz said:

First like Labour in G and D

My wallet says Yahoo!!

But let us not count chickens just yet.

TheScreamingEagles

Taz said:

Farage’s Cunning Stunt !!

Naughty of you there, TSE 😉

Innocent face.

Big_G_NorthWales

Ironic if labour hold as that would be the Burnham effect as he has been there most days apparently

Not long to wait

rottenborough

I may choke on my popcorn if Starmer holds this seat whilst I laugh myself stupid at Matty Goodwin's career crash.

MaxPB

PoodleInASlipstream said:

Leon said:

PoodleInASlipstream said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Leon said:

America deciding to offshore its high tech chip production to Taiwan must count as one of the stupidest unforced errors in history

America had the tech and the money and the space. Uniquely so. They could have imported the hard working East Asian people if absolutely necessary

Now they are totally dependant on an island across a mighty ocean and perilously close to America’s most potent economic and military rival, a rival which claims that island as its own, and with good reason

Tut

Wasn't it the reverse? Taiwan deliberately chose to pour energy into dominating a critical sector of technology so that the US, and others, would have a vested interest in defending them should China try anything, no?

Yep. The US did not throw away their lead in chips, it was taken from them.

The Taiwanese government recognised the importance of semiconductors early on and pumped money and effort in to supporting companies that would build fabs on the island. That led to the founding of TSMC and the smaller UMC.

Japan tried something similar, which worked for a while, but their mistake was trying to get existing domestic technology companies like NEC and Hitachi to invest in semi fabs. They did, but it wasn't a core part of their business so as soon as the industry went in to a lean period they diverted funds away to other areas and fell behind the Taiwanese.

Their one notable success was Toshiba, which heavily invested in manufacturing flash memory and became the biggest supplier in the world for a while. A financial scandal forced them to spin off their flash memory division as Kioxia, which is something like third or fourth in the market today.

There are people on here with - horror! - more experience and knowledge in this area. But I catch up fast

All day I’ve been deep diving this. My impression is that it is a mix of both. Yes, Taiwan showed incredible prescience (and got a bit lucky?) and partly it was agreement - Taiwan sent young men to learn in America and America was happy to teach. Also Morris Chang!

And yet America was the world leader in all this from the 50s-70s and they did kinda chuck it away. Tho you could argue: who foresaw the arrival of a genuinely potent arrival in the form of China? Even in the 90s i can recall guys like Clinton laughing at the idea of China as a genuine threat to American supremacy

In my view almost all the mistakes made by the US in semiconductors stem from one thing; arrogance. They never believed any other country could beat them, only the US could produce cutting-edge technology.

Let foreign students come and learn, their crappy countries will never be able to catch up anyway. Build fabs in China, it's a dump that can't produce anything but cheap crap without US help.

They should have known better, and it's not like the didn't have warning. Japan gave them a mighty scare in the late 70s and early 80s when they pulled the DRAM market out from under American suppliers. People forget Intel was originally a DRAM company until the Japanese out-developed them and took that market away. Intel only survived because of the accidental success of their 8086 CPU line.

The same arrogance still exists today. US vendors dominate the most advanced design sectors - CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, etc. But competition has already eaten the lower end of those markets and are working upwards. Intel and AMD design the big CPUs, but look at the cheap microcontrollers that go into basically everything now - the US is a bit player in that market. The biggest suppliers are STMicro and Infineon (Europe), Renesas (Japan), NXP (Netherlands/China), Espressif (China), etc. The US only really has TI in that market.

Some of those microcontrollers are so powerful now they're doing jobs that would have needed a full-blown CPU a decade ago, and the gap keeps narrowing.

The arrogance of Intel leadership was something to behold IMO. It's a bit like Boeing but without the plane crashes killing people. Both US industrial titans taken over by MBA shitheads who see the cost of investing in cutting edge engineering and cut it back to the bone while pumping up prices thinking that the competition will never catch up. If it wasn't for the decade or so of criminal underinvestment by Intel the US would still have or be in the mix for engineering leadership, but the CEO listened to Wall Street instead of his own engineering teams, cut investment, concentrated on direct shareholder returns and fucked it.

HYUFD

From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

TheScreamingEagles

rottenborough said:

I may choke on my popcorn if Starmer holds this seat whilst I laugh myself stupid at Matty Goodwin's career crash.

Same, I have an agreement with a long term lurker that if Goodwin loses, I shall never use that Farage photo again.

Taz

rottenborough said:

I may choke on my popcorn if Starmer holds this seat whilst I laugh myself stupid at Matty Goodwin's career crash.

If he holds it then what next for labour. It emboldens him and makes him safe as it does with Reeves. Does it make it easier for him to get his policy platform through.

In a KK ‘I’d love it, just love it’ moment if SKS wins it absolutely fucks Burnhams leadership chances anytime soon. Leaves them in the same position as one of TsE’s stepmoms.

wooliedyed

Labour winning should galvanise literally everyone to get out in May and give them a kicking

tlg86

https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2025969695795323334

@DPJHodges
So let me get this right. Keir Starmer asked the cabinet office to investigate Josh Simons. The cabinet office has concluded its investigation and handed its evidence to the Prime Minister. But he is still unwilling to take a decision. So has asked for yet another investigation.

Roger

What was Farage's Cunning Stunt in the Indian Ocean?

I missed all the UK News

Nigelb

MaxPB said:

PoodleInASlipstream said:

Leon said:

PoodleInASlipstream said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Leon said:

America deciding to offshore its high tech chip production to Taiwan must count as one of the stupidest unforced errors in history

America had the tech and the money and the space. Uniquely so. They could have imported the hard working East Asian people if absolutely necessary

Now they are totally dependant on an island across a mighty ocean and perilously close to America’s most potent economic and military rival, a rival which claims that island as its own, and with good reason

Tut

Wasn't it the reverse? Taiwan deliberately chose to pour energy into dominating a critical sector of technology so that the US, and others, would have a vested interest in defending them should China try anything, no?

Yep. The US did not throw away their lead in chips, it was taken from them.

The Taiwanese government recognised the importance of semiconductors early on and pumped money and effort in to supporting companies that would build fabs on the island. That led to the founding of TSMC and the smaller UMC.

Japan tried something similar, which worked for a while, but their mistake was trying to get existing domestic technology companies like NEC and Hitachi to invest in semi fabs. They did, but it wasn't a core part of their business so as soon as the industry went in to a lean period they diverted funds away to other areas and fell behind the Taiwanese.

Their one notable success was Toshiba, which heavily invested in manufacturing flash memory and became the biggest supplier in the world for a while. A financial scandal forced them to spin off their flash memory division as Kioxia, which is something like third or fourth in the market today.

There are people on here with - horror! - more experience and knowledge in this area. But I catch up fast

All day I’ve been deep diving this. My impression is that it is a mix of both. Yes, Taiwan showed incredible prescience (and got a bit lucky?) and partly it was agreement - Taiwan sent young men to learn in America and America was happy to teach. Also Morris Chang!

And yet America was the world leader in all this from the 50s-70s and they did kinda chuck it away. Tho you could argue: who foresaw the arrival of a genuinely potent arrival in the form of China? Even in the 90s i can recall guys like Clinton laughing at the idea of China as a genuine threat to American supremacy

In my view almost all the mistakes made by the US in semiconductors stem from one thing; arrogance. They never believed any other country could beat them, only the US could produce cutting-edge technology.

Let foreign students come and learn, their crappy countries will never be able to catch up anyway. Build fabs in China, it's a dump that can't produce anything but cheap crap without US help.

They should have known better, and it's not like the didn't have warning. Japan gave them a mighty scare in the late 70s and early 80s when they pulled the DRAM market out from under American suppliers. People forget Intel was originally a DRAM company until the Japanese out-developed them and took that market away. Intel only survived because of the accidental success of their 8086 CPU line.

The same arrogance still exists today. US vendors dominate the most advanced design sectors - CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, etc. But competition has already eaten the lower end of those markets and are working upwards. Intel and AMD design the big CPUs, but look at the cheap microcontrollers that go into basically everything now - the US is a bit player in that market. The biggest suppliers are STMicro and Infineon (Europe), Renesas (Japan), NXP (Netherlands/China), Espressif (China), etc. The US only really has TI in that market.

Some of those microcontrollers are so powerful now they're doing jobs that would have needed a full-blown CPU a decade ago, and the gap keeps narrowing.

The arrogance of Intel leadership was something to behold IMO. It's a bit like Boeing but without the plane crashes killing people. Both US industrial titans taken over by MBA shitheads who see the cost of investing in cutting edge engineering and cut it back to the bone while pumping up prices thinking that the competition will never catch up. If it wasn't for the decade or so of criminal underinvestment by Intel the US would still have or be in the mix for engineering leadership, but the CEO listened to Wall Street instead of his own engineering teams, cut investment, concentrated on direct shareholder returns and fucked it.

And up until then, it was "only the paranoid survive", with Andy Grove warning against all of the above.
Incredible, really.

Brixian59

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Ironic if labour hold as that would be the Burnham effect as he has been there most days apparently

Not long to wait

So have Rayner and Powell.

There certainly seems to be a different and more confident wiff about Labour since McSweeney and Wormold were shown the door.

Its a bit like a striker who not scored in ages have one go in off his ass and suddenly look a yard faster.

I still think they will lose the seat but come a lot closer than they dared hope for 2 weeks ago.

If they do hold on they can thank Reform for picking an awful candidate and Polanski for bottling the chance to become an MP.

Sunil_Prasannan

In an alternate reality:

Bridget: What are you doing lunch time?
Ace Starmer: Not sure, why?
Bridget: Because if you're interested, I'll be in my quarters, covered in maple syrup.
Ace Starmer: I'm sorry Bridget, I don't fraternize with the staff.
Bridget: I resign.
Ace Starmer: I'll be there at 1300.
[Ace leaves]
Bridget: What a guy!

[Later...]

Ace Starmer: Smoke me a kipper, Rachel. I'll be back for breakfast.
Rachel: I know this probably won't interest you, but I'd hate myself for the rest of my life if I didn't at least suggest it.
Ace Starmer: Suggest what?
Rachel: If you're interested, I'll be in my quarters at lunchtime, covered in Pineapple Pizza.
Ace Starmer: I didn't know you were into Hawaiians, Rachel
Rachel: I've been happily married for 15 years. It's just, a chap like you can turn a girl's head.
Ace Starmer: I'm sorry, Rachel. Lunch is... on Bridget.
Rachel: Would it make any difference if it was margherita?
Ace Starmer: I'm sorry, Rachel. I'm a strictly pepperoni type of bloke.
Rachel: Understood.
[Ace leaves]
Rachel: What a guy!

Big_G_NorthWales

Brixian59 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Ironic if labour hold as that would be the Burnham effect as he has been there most days apparently

Not long to wait

So have Rayner and Powell.

There certainly seems to be a different and more confident wiff about Labour since McSweeney and Wormold were shown the door.

Its a bit like a striker who not scored in ages have one go in off his ass and suddenly look a yard faster.

I still think they will lose the seat but come a lot closer than they dared hope for 2 weeks ago.

If they do hold on they can thank Reform for picking an awful candidate and Polanski for bottling the chance to become an MP.

And Andy Burnham

Sean_F

Even a swing like Runcorn's (17.3%) would see Labour just about hold on. So, yes, they have a good chance of holding the seat, but they will suffer a huge swing against them, whatever happens.

WRT local elections, I've been doing a bit of number-crunching.

There have been 209 by-elections, since May 2025. Reform have won 27.2%, Lib Dems 19.2%, Conservatives 16.5%, Labour 14.9%, Greens 9.8%. Others have won 8%, Scottish and Welsh nationalists 4%.

Allowing for the bigger vote for minor parties at local level, that produces the same even split between right and left that opinion polls show. If these were the NEV shares in May, the results would be catastrophic for Conservatives and Labour. The former would be down 14% on 2022 (and down 22% on 2021), and the latter would be down 20% on 2022.

Labour would be polling c.20% across London, the Conservatives would be polling c.10%.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2025969695795323334

@DPJHodges
So let me get this right. Keir Starmer asked the cabinet office to investigate Josh Simons. The cabinet office has concluded its investigation and handed its evidence to the Prime Minister. But he is still unwilling to take a decision. So has asked for yet another investigation.

Dan's being disingenuous

Sir Keir Starmer has asked his standards adviser to investigate a minister accused of paying a PR firm to look into the personal and religious background of a Sunday Times journalist.

The Times understands that Sir Laurie Magnus, the prime minister’s independent adviser on ministerial ethics, will look into whether Josh Simons, the digital government minister and former head of the Labour Together think tank, has broken the ministerial code.

A separate investigation by the Cabinet Office’s propriety and ethics team has cleared Simons of wrongdoing. However, it does not have the power to determine whether he breached the code when he repeatedly denied having asked Apco Worldwide, a US lobbying company, to investigate reporters including Gabriel Pogrund, Whitehall editor of The Sunday Times.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/starmer-investigation-labour-together-josh-simons-p9w20lz72

TheScreamingEagles

Roger said:

What was Farage's Cunning Stunt in the Indian Ocean?

I missed all the UK News

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/22/nigel-farage-accused-of-maga-stunts-chagos

Brixian59

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Brixian59 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Ironic if labour hold as that would be the Burnham effect as he has been there most days apparently

Not long to wait

So have Rayner and Powell.

There certainly seems to be a different and more confident wiff about Labour since McSweeney and Wormold were shown the door.

Its a bit like a striker who not scored in ages have one go in off his ass and suddenly look a yard faster.

I still think they will lose the seat but come a lot closer than they dared hope for 2 weeks ago.

If they do hold on they can thank Reform for picking an awful candidate and Polanski for bottling the chance to become an MP.

And Andy Burnham

Clearly Burnham has been there.

If Labour wins it proves Starmer was right to ensure he stayed in the job he is in.

Burnham may have won Gorton, Labour would almost certainly lose the mayorality and that would be a far far greater blow to the whole region

Burnham as mayor
A Labour MP reelected is a massive win for Starmer.

Sean_F

Sean_F said:

Even a swing like Runcorn's (17.3%) would see Labour just about hold on. So, yes, they have a good chance of holding the seat, but they will suffer a huge swing against them, whatever happens.

WRT local elections, I've been doing a bit of number-crunching.

There have been 209 by-elections, since May 2025. Reform have won 27.2%, Lib Dems 19.2%, Conservatives 16.5%, Labour 14.9%, Greens 9.8%. Others have won 8%, Scottish and Welsh nationalists 4%.

Allowing for the bigger vote for minor parties at local level, that produces the same even split between right and left that opinion polls show. If these were the NEV shares in May, the results would be catastrophic for Conservatives and Labour. The former would be down 14% on 2022 (and down 22% on 2021), and the latter would be down 20% on 2022.

Labour would be polling c.20% across London, the Conservatives would be polling c.10%.

The Lib Dems and Greens would be unchanged (in terms of vote share) on 2022.

bigjohnowls

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Keir's been on Betfair and backed Labour from 11 this morning to 8 (7/1 in old money).

Edit: 6.2 now.

Lab as short as 9/2 but can still get 10/1 with AK Bet
Greens as sort as 2/7 but can still get 1/2 with WH
Reform as short as 15/8 but can still get 7/2 with AK Bet

MEDIAN ODDS AT 16.35 TODAY GRN 4/11, REFORM 11/4 LAB 8/1

Looks almost identical to when i looked on Friday

Also still happy with my 9/2 on GRN.s when it became obvious to me SKS was going to block King Andy (about 5 days before he did)

Sweeney74

Forecast for Thursday is mild with light rain and a gentle breeze - so a fairly typical day.
Not sure who that benefits tbh, but I don't see the weather alone reducing turn-out.

Roger

rottenborough said:

I may choke on my popcorn if Starmer holds this seat whilst I laugh myself stupid at Matty Goodwin's career crash.

That's my thinking. 1st choice humiliation for Goodwin. 2nd a big win for the dope smoking plumber with Starmer beaten on a recount

Taz

Jesus wept.

From LBC

‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job and protecting the public and are probably still in a job.

Trebles all round.

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.

Sean_F

Taz said:

Jesus wept.

From LBC

‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job.

It's good to see that they have their priorities right.

Sean_F

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.

No, the defending party never wants to give an opponent the chance to generate a bandwagon. A quick election is always best, when defending a seat. Both Reform and the Greens are fighting this seat without any historic canvassing data.

williamglenn

https://x.com/danbloom1/status/2025954719668080678

EXCL: Josh Simons has accidentally messaged details of his case to a mass WhatsApp group of 2024-intake Labour MPs today

The message (swiftly deleted) said: "Jonny rang, PM will ask Laurie to look in to it. Aim is to move fast. But PET did find I had not broken the code."

Sweeney74

Taz said:

Jesus wept.

From LBC

‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job and protecting the public and are probably still in a job.

Trebles all round.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/nottingham-killer-released-by-mental-health-workers-informed-by-race-research-crkcdc3p9

Mental health professionals had been “leaning towards” sectioning Calocane, who had been arrested for criminal damage earlier that day for attacking another neighbour’s door. However, he was released after “the team of professionals considered the research evidence that shows over-representation of young black males in detention”, the inquiry was told.

wooliedyed

Sean_F said:

Even a swing like Runcorn's (17.3%) would see Labour just about hold on. So, yes, they have a good chance of holding the seat, but they will suffer a huge swing against them, whatever happens.

WRT local elections, I've been doing a bit of number-crunching.

There have been 209 by-elections, since May 2025. Reform have won 27.2%, Lib Dems 19.2%, Conservatives 16.5%, Labour 14.9%, Greens 9.8%. Others have won 8%, Scottish and Welsh nationalists 4%.

Allowing for the bigger vote for minor parties at local level, that produces the same even split between right and left that opinion polls show. If these were the NEV shares in May, the results would be catastrophic for Conservatives and Labour. The former would be down 14% on 2022 (and down 22% on 2021), and the latter would be down 20% on 2022.

Labour would be polling c.20% across London, the Conservatives would be polling c.10%.

Obviously you need to work out the NEV on these by elections first. And remove the Scot/Welsh Nats. If the Tories (for example) really are on a bit above half their 2022 NEV then theyd be on about 13 to 14% in London (on proportionate swing) where they got 25%. However they were already doing worse in London than the rest of England.
They average 23% in the 10 by elections in London since LE 2025 and were ahead of Reform in 6 of the 10.
They'll do much better than 10%

Sunil_Prasannan

Green politician blames Manchester Arena bombing on... Conservatives!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuVtFW6oAIw

Unpopular

Taz said:

Jesus wept.

From LBC

‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job and protecting the public and are probably still in a job.

Trebles all round.

I'm not sure about stuff like this. In my experience such excuses are often used pre-emptively as cover for being a lazy bastard. 'Oh, I can't do that because of GDPR' or to use a particular example for a course I know of 'We can't run selection interviews because it would violate the Equality Act.'

Further, if I had dropped a bollock and let some nutter run rampage because I couldn't be arsed with the paperwork of having them detained, I'd absolutely blame the Woke for my mistake.

That said, I'm not familiar with the situation so I have no idea.

wooliedyed

First tranche of Mandy docs now 'early March'
Shredders running 24/7

Cookie

Sean_F said:

Taz said:

Jesus wept.

From LBC

‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job.

It's good to see that they have their priorities right.

Important to note here that it was not that health workers thought that detaining him would be racist - it was that they feared if they did they would be labelled racist. And probably this fear was justified. The cry of 'racist' is a trump card.
We have created a system where ethnic minorities must be given preferential treatment.
This, more than anything else, is why race relations are rather less cordial than they were.

Sean_F

wooliedyed said:

Sean_F said:

Even a swing like Runcorn's (17.3%) would see Labour just about hold on. So, yes, they have a good chance of holding the seat, but they will suffer a huge swing against them, whatever happens.

WRT local elections, I've been doing a bit of number-crunching.

There have been 209 by-elections, since May 2025. Reform have won 27.2%, Lib Dems 19.2%, Conservatives 16.5%, Labour 14.9%, Greens 9.8%. Others have won 8%, Scottish and Welsh nationalists 4%.

Allowing for the bigger vote for minor parties at local level, that produces the same even split between right and left that opinion polls show. If these were the NEV shares in May, the results would be catastrophic for Conservatives and Labour. The former would be down 14% on 2022 (and down 22% on 2021), and the latter would be down 20% on 2022.

Labour would be polling c.20% across London, the Conservatives would be polling c.10%.

Obviously you need to work out the NEV on these by elections first. And remove the Scot/Welsh Nats. If the Tories (for example) really are on a bit above half their 2022 NEV then theyd be on about 13 to 14% in London (on proportionate swing) where they got 25%. However they were already doing worse in London than the rest of England.
They average 23% in the 10 by elections in London since LE 2025 and were ahead of Reform in 6 of the 10.
They'll do much better than 10%

I think there is a floor for the Conservatives in London above 10%, and for Labour above 20%, but in turn, that might imply sharper drops in support, elsewhere.

Brixian59

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.

Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

Bizarre

SandyRentool

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Ironic if labour hold as that would be the Burnham effect as he has been there most days apparently

Not long to wait

I hope Burnham is taking it as annual leave. Door knocking in a by-election campaign does not feature in the GM Mayor's job description.

Taz

Cookie said:

Sean_F said:

Taz said:

Jesus wept.

From LBC

‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job.

It's good to see that they have their priorities right.

Important to note here that it was not that health workers thought that detaining him would be racist - it was that they feared if they did they would be labelled racist. And probably this fear was justified. The cry of 'racist' is a trump card.
We have created a system where ethnic minorities must be given preferential treatment.
This, more than anything else, is why race relations are rather less cordial than they were.

Same with the security guard at the Manchester Arena bombing although, as we know from the Green campaign, the responsibility for that atrocity is either Reforms or the Tories.

wooliedyed

Sean_F said:

wooliedyed said:

Sean_F said:

Even a swing like Runcorn's (17.3%) would see Labour just about hold on. So, yes, they have a good chance of holding the seat, but they will suffer a huge swing against them, whatever happens.

WRT local elections, I've been doing a bit of number-crunching.

There have been 209 by-elections, since May 2025. Reform have won 27.2%, Lib Dems 19.2%, Conservatives 16.5%, Labour 14.9%, Greens 9.8%. Others have won 8%, Scottish and Welsh nationalists 4%.

Allowing for the bigger vote for minor parties at local level, that produces the same even split between right and left that opinion polls show. If these were the NEV shares in May, the results would be catastrophic for Conservatives and Labour. The former would be down 14% on 2022 (and down 22% on 2021), and the latter would be down 20% on 2022.

Labour would be polling c.20% across London, the Conservatives would be polling c.10%.

Obviously you need to work out the NEV on these by elections first. And remove the Scot/Welsh Nats. If the Tories (for example) really are on a bit above half their 2022 NEV then theyd be on about 13 to 14% in London (on proportionate swing) where they got 25%. However they were already doing worse in London than the rest of England.
They average 23% in the 10 by elections in London since LE 2025 and were ahead of Reform in 6 of the 10.
They'll do much better than 10%

I think there is a floor for the Conservatives in London above 10%, and for Labour above 20%, but in turn, that might imply sharper drops in support, elsewhere.

It might, yeah, but taken in the round half the vote outside London versus 2022 doesnt look a million miles off an average in the by elections thus far, then we need to see if the 'voter strike' is starting to abate with either of them

Nigelb

Which liar is the liar here ?

Trump, July 19: "All three nuclear sites in Iran were completely destroyed and/or OBLITERATED. It would take years to bring them back into service."

Witkoff, Sunday: "They're probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material."
https://x.com/peterbakernyt/status/2025911307501719659

SandyRentool

Whatever the result on Friday morning, some pundits who predicted a different result will be interviewed and say that they knew all along that this would be the result.

JohnLilburne

Brixian59 said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.

Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

Bizarre

Only 4% of the electorate voted Tory at the last election, so there aren't many to start with.

TheScreamingEagles

Mandy arrested

tlg86

Nigelb said:

Which liar is the liar here ?

Trump, July 19: "All three nuclear sites in Iran were completely destroyed and/or OBLITERATED. It would take years to bring them back into service."

Witkoff, Sunday: "They're probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material."
https://x.com/peterbakernyt/status/2025911307501719659

Both?

bigjohnowls

LAB Previous day closing prices with oddschecker across all sportsbook bookies

Previous Day Closing Price LAB
Mean Ave 8.71/1 across 17 bookies

bigjohnowls said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Keir's been on Betfair and backed Labour from 11 this morning to 8 (7/1 in old money).

Edit: 6.2 now.

Lab as short as 9/2 but can still get 10/1 with AK Bet
Greens as sort as 2/7 but can still get 1/2 with WH
Reform as short as 15/8 but can still get 7/2 with AK Bet

MEDIAN ODDS AT 16.35 TODAY GRN 4/11, REFORM 11/4 LAB 8/1

Looks almost identical to when i looked on Friday

Also still happy with my 9/2 on GRN.s when it became obvious to me SKS was going to block King Andy (about 5 days before he did)

Best LAB INTO 9/1 with BET MGM, Virgin bet

turbotubbs

Taz said:

Jesus wept.

From LBC

‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job and protecting the public and are probably still in a job.

Trebles all round.

See also the crimes we cannot talk about on PB.

I get it. People are nice, kind and want to do the right thing. And then suddenly we get society into a tangle because people are afraid of being called racist. I recall furore when an older politician used the phrase 'coloured person' rather than 'person of colour'. They were trying to be respectful yet somehow transgressed and were attacked for it.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mandy arrested

Excellent news

Sean_F

Brixian59 said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.

Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

Bizarre

The Conservatives won less than 8% in 2024. One would not meet many Conservative voters.

Taz

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mandy arrested

If it hadn't have been for Mandy
Her promise up above me
Well I wouldn't be here at all

TheScreamingEagles

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/police-lead-lord-mandelson-out-of-london-home-bl5bqgljh

wooliedyed

RIP The Labour Party

TheScreamingEagles

I am so glad nothing major happens when I go on holiday, I think I might extend my holiday until Easter.

williamglenn

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Gavin Newsom says he's a "960 SAT guy" and is not able to read a speech.

https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2025749760443908555

That wasn’t the controversial bit. The controversial bit was him saying “I’m just like you, with my 960 SAT and an inability to read” to a black audience.

A four-letter response from Newsom:

https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/2025944365114290457

Taz

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

Jesus wept.

From LBC

‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job and protecting the public and are probably still in a job.

Trebles all round.

See also the crimes we cannot talk about on PB.

I get it. People are nice, kind and want to do the right thing. And then suddenly we get society into a tangle because people are afraid of being called racist. I recall furore when an older politician used the phrase 'coloured person' rather than 'person of colour'. They were trying to be respectful yet somehow transgressed and were attacked for it.

Also happened to posh Luvvie Benedict Cumberbatch

His response was pathetic. Full on hairshirt and self reproachment instead of telling the offendotrons to go fuck themselves

‘ “I’m devastated to have caused offence by using this outmoded terminology. I offer my sincere apologies. I make no excuse for my being an idiot and know the damage is done.”

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2015/jan/26/benedict-cumberbatch-apologises-after-calling-black-actors-coloured

wooliedyed

Any chance in G and D just evaporated, lol

Sunil_Prasannan

Mandy arrested??

bigjohnowls

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

Even a swing like Runcorn's (17.3%) would see Labour just about hold on. So, yes, they have a good chance of holding the seat, but they will suffer a huge swing against them, whatever happens.

WRT local elections, I've been doing a bit of number-crunching.

There have been 209 by-elections, since May 2025. Reform have won 27.2%, Lib Dems 19.2%, Conservatives 16.5%, Labour 14.9%, Greens 9.8%. Others have won 8%, Scottish and Welsh nationalists 4%.

Allowing for the bigger vote for minor parties at local level, that produces the same even split between right and left that opinion polls show. If these were the NEV shares in May, the results would be catastrophic for Conservatives and Labour. The former would be down 14% on 2022 (and down 22% on 2021), and the latter would be down 20% on 2022.

Labour would be polling c.20% across London, the Conservatives would be polling c.10%.

The Lib Dems and Greens would be unchanged (in terms of vote share) on 2022.

"Greens would be unchanged (in terms of vote share) on 2022"

Filed in large grey file (also known as bin)

TheScreamingEagles

I've deleted my post about Mandy getting arrested, there's a lot of rumours flying about, and The Times haven't used the A word.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've deleted my post about Mandy getting arrested, there's a lot of rumours flying about, and The Times haven't used the A word.

Sky confirm Mandelson arrested by police

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've deleted my post about Mandy getting arrested, there's a lot of rumours flying about, and The Times haven't used the A word.

GB News showing footage of him being led away by plain-clothes officers.

williamglenn

Confirmed

https://x.com/danbloom1/status/2025980772474097914

BREAKING: Police arrest Peter Mandelson

A Metropolitan Police spokesperson said: "Officers have arrested a 72-year-old man on suspicion of misconduct in public office.
"He ... has been taken to a London police station for interview. This follows search warrants at two addresses"

Big_G_NorthWales

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've deleted my post about Mandy getting arrested, there's a lot of rumours flying about, and The Times haven't used the A word.

GB News showing footage of him being led away by plain-clothes officers.

Sky say Met Police confirm arrest for misconduct in public office

wooliedyed

Roll on PMQs.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've deleted my post about Mandy getting arrested, there's a lot of rumours flying about, and The Times haven't used the A word.

Premature Deletion - happens to the best of us!

wooliedyed

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

AnneJGP

Interesting that the by-election is a battle of values between Labour and Reform. A bit more info would be good. What are Labour’s values?

bigjohnowls

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've deleted my post about Mandy getting arrested, there's a lot of rumours flying about, and The Times haven't used the A word.

They presumably think calling him an Arsehole could be prejudicial.

bigjohnowls

bigjohnowls said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've deleted my post about Mandy getting arrested, there's a lot of rumours flying about, and The Times haven't used the A word.

They presumably think calling him an Arsehole could be prejudicial.

I believe SKS might have used the C word

AnneJGP

wooliedyed said:

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

I don't know - depends whether people view those as the values that are competing with Reform's.

squareroot2

The Mirror just sent an e mail saying thecAzword

Scott_xP

@lewisgoodall.com‬
· 3m
NEW: Police confirm Peter Mandelson has been arrested

Met spokesperson-

“He was arrested at an address in Camden on Monday, 23 February and has been taken to a London police station for interview.

This follows search warrants at two addresses in the Wiltshire and Camden areas.”

wooliedyed

AnneJGP said:

Interesting that the by-election is a battle of values between Labour and Reform. A bit more info would be good. What are Labour’s values?

Elevate the friends of nonces and set security sevices on journalists. Pay to give away British territory
All the high moral things

squareroot2

The Times uses the word arrested

wooliedyed

AnneJGP said:

wooliedyed said:

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

I don't know - depends whether people view those as the values that are competing with Reform's.

Reform will fade over the next few months. Empty suits and failed Tories.

MattW

williamglenn said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Gavin Newsom says he's a "960 SAT guy" and is not able to read a speech.

https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2025749760443908555

That wasn’t the controversial bit. The controversial bit was him saying “I’m just like you, with my 960 SAT and an inability to read” to a black audience.

A four-letter response from Newsom:

https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/2025944365114290457

How will this play?

wre the audience laughing with him?

AnneJGP

wooliedyed said:

AnneJGP said:

wooliedyed said:

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

I don't know - depends whether people view those as the values that are competing with Reform's.

Reform will fade over the next few months. Empty suits and failed Tories.

Yeahbut the by-election isn't a few months away.

wooliedyed

AnneJGP said:

wooliedyed said:

AnneJGP said:

wooliedyed said:

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

I don't know - depends whether people view those as the values that are competing with Reform's.

Reform will fade over the next few months. Empty suits and failed Tories.

Yeahbut the by-election isn't a few months away.

Green gain.

Chris

wooliedyed said:

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

They're just praying that Mandelson and the Andrew Formerly Known will both be charged as quickly as possible so that it will all become sub judice and no one will be able to say anything about it until after the next election.

squareroot2

Why has it taken so.long to arrest him. He had plenty of time to get rid of embarrasing stuff....

williamglenn

Chris said:

wooliedyed said:

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

They're just praying that Mandelson and the Andrew Formerly Known will both be charged as quickly as possible so that it will all become sub judice and no one will be able to say anything about it until after the next election.

The interesting question with Mandy is whether he'll be charged over anything that's not yet in the public domain.

wooliedyed

Chris said:

wooliedyed said:

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

They're just praying that Mandelson and the Andrew Formerly Known will both be charged as quickly as possible so that it will all become sub judice and no one will be able to say anything about it until after the next election.

Of course then all the mandy docs (non case related) come out and everyone sees the influence the guy had over Labour and Labour MPs. The stench will be overwhelming

Malmesbury

squareroot2 said:

Why has it taken so.long to arrest him. He had plenty of time to get rid of embarrasing stuff....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9Ujwst_5Aw

Roger

Brixian59 said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.

Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

Bizarre

Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

#kemigetsmuchworse

Brixian59

Roger said:

Brixian59 said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.

Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

Bizarre

Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

#kemigetsmuchworse

I saw that.

A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv

wooliedyed

williamglenn said:

Chris said:

wooliedyed said:

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

They're just praying that Mandelson and the Andrew Formerly Known will both be charged as quickly as possible so that it will all become sub judice and no one will be able to say anything about it until after the next election.

The interesting question with Mandy is whether he'll be charged over anything that's not yet in the public domain.

Or if 'anyone else' from his, ahem, old posse get dragged in

bondegezou

squareroot2 said:

Why has it taken so.long to arrest him. He had plenty of time to get rid of embarrasing stuff....

They raided his houses earlier, so they'll already have any of the embarrassing stuff that he had at that time.

Cicero

AnneJGP said:

wooliedyed said:

AnneJGP said:

wooliedyed said:

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

I don't know - depends whether people view those as the values that are competing with Reform's.

Reform will fade over the next few months. Empty suits and failed Tories.

Yeahbut the by-election isn't a few months away.

Not getting massive vibes for Reform storming it... and they really need to, if they are seriously going to make any kind of national breakthrough.

Roger

Josh Simons to be next Minister to go. You heard it here first

Brixian59

wooliedyed said:

Any chance in G and D just evaporated, lol

On the contrary

He's done wrong allegedly

He's been questioned under arrest

Where is Michelle One?

Sunil_Prasannan

Malmesbury said:

squareroot2 said:

Why has it taken so.long to arrest him. He had plenty of time to get rid of embarrasing stuff....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9Ujwst_5Aw

"The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist."

Taz

wooliedyed said:

AnneJGP said:

wooliedyed said:

Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

I don't know - depends whether people view those as the values that are competing with Reform's.

Reform will fade over the next few months. Empty suits and failed Tories.

People, yourself included, have been calling this repeatedly.

Like people calling stock market crashes.

Eventually you’ll be right.

Big_G_NorthWales

Brixian59 said:

Roger said:

Brixian59 said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.

Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

Bizarre

Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

#kemigetsmuchworse

I saw that.

A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv

Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms

AnneJGP

bondegezou said:

squareroot2 said:

Why has it taken so.long to arrest him. He had plenty of time to get rid of embarrasing stuff....

They raided his houses earlier, so they'll already have any of the embarrassing stuff that he had at that time.

He must have disposed of any paper trail long ago. It's all devices and online accounts these days, isn't it?

bondegezou

The Scottish elections will be fun, with Murrell on trial and Mandelson awaiting trial. That's two parties representing 2/3 of the current MSPs with high profile scandals. Who is the more significant figure in each party?

Taz

Mandelson arrested but not handcuffed when he gets into the back of the car.