The G&D poll is very interesting. I think it's encouraging for all three parties really. Greens because they're leading, Labour because they're not out, and Reform because the left vote is not coalescing, so they can still come through the middle.
Two of the three parties, Reform and Labour, are (I think) likely to be a bit underreported, because Labour are shit and embarrassing (why would you tell a pollster you are voting for them?), and Reform are socially unacceptable. That makes the Green lead potentially even narrower.
If the result is the same as the poll, the left vote will not have coalesced, but Reform still lose. The left vote doesn’t have to coalesce much if Reform’s vote has a ceiling.
Well obviously. Our interest leads us to interpret polls differently to the headline VI sometimes though. I'd say this lead is likely to disappear. Labour will have very solid bank of postal voting, and if they're already polling at 27%, it says to me that the Greens haven't been entirely successful in capturing Labour's Muslim vote.
Reform likewise could 'surprise on the upside' - success is also within their reach, if their are lots of shy Reformers giving 'don't know' or even other parties as their answer.
The Greens I don't see outstripping their polling, because there's no reason to hide a Green vote on a poll (unless you can think of one), so there are no hidden voters for them. Indeed there are some reasons to just reach for the word 'Green', because you're furious with Labour but not ready to admit publicly that you're voting Reform, or indeed that you're voting Labour even though you know they’re awful.
I've met quite a few Reform voters. They tend to be fairly volubly forthcoming.
This is a rather asinine point if you apply some thought.
You are meeting the voluble ones - clearly you aren't meeting the shy ones, or you are, they'rejust not revealing their voting preference. Hence designatiing them as shy. Indeed the very fact that 'out and proud' Reform voters are usually very forthright people makes my point.
The G&D poll is very interesting. I think it's encouraging for all three parties really. Greens because they're leading, Labour because they're not out, and Reform because the left vote is not coalescing, so they can still come through the middle.
Two of the three parties, Reform and Labour, are (I think) likely to be a bit underreported, because Labour are shit and embarrassing (why would you tell a pollster you are voting for them?), and Reform are socially unacceptable. That makes the Green lead potentially even narrower.
If the result is the same as the poll, the left vote will not have coalesced, but Reform still lose. The left vote doesn’t have to coalesce much if Reform’s vote has a ceiling.
Well obviously. Our interest leads us to interpret polls differently to the headline VI sometimes though. I'd say this lead is likely to disappear. Labour will have very solid bank of postal voting, and if they're already polling at 27%, it says to me that the Greens haven't been entirely successful in capturing Labour's Muslim vote.
Reform likewise could 'surprise on the upside' - success is also within their reach, if their are lots of shy Reformers giving 'don't know' or even other parties as their answer.
The Greens I don't see outstripping their polling, because there's no reason to hide a Green vote on a poll (unless you can think of one), so there are no hidden voters for them. Indeed there are some reasons to just reach for the word 'Green', because you're furious with Labour but not ready to admit publicly that you're voting Reform, or indeed that you're voting Labour even though you know they’re awful.
I've met quite a few Reform voters. They tend to be fairly volubly forthcoming.
Not on here.
Isn't that inevitable given the format is text only without sound?
For a party supposedly on c.30% nationally. any Reform supporters have certainly turned down the volume on pb.com.
Two things. There aren’t many here and if you dare to be even partly pro Reform it’s pile on time.
PB does not reflect the U.K. its largely middle aged, male, white, middle class. Some random was talking the other day of cashing in investments to the value of six figures to aid with tax planning. I doubt many can do that in Peterlee or Hartlepool. They’re just surviving day to day while being sneered at by the middle,classes.
Middle aged white males are disproportionately pro Farage- the surprisingly few posters for Reform amongst our skewed middle aged white male base might suggest that support for Reform in the country is weaker and much patchier than we might expect from the polls
Just seen Royal Mail trying to cut Sat deliveries for non 1st class post. Meanwhile my postman confirmed there were no deliveries on my round on one day this week Horsham has 18 vacancies that cannot be filled and if a round doesn't happen its cheaper to.pay the fine than deliver the post.
Something is v wrong if this is true
If you can't be bothered to pay for a first class stamp why should you expect to see your letter or parcel delivered on a Saturday?
I normally use 1st class stamps but letters posted in this neck of the woods usually take about a week to be delivered.
So still can be delivered within the week on a Saturday then if sent first class
"Horsham has 18 vacancies that cannot be filled"
And yet millions of young people are sat on the sofa without work or education.
But there are two further questions. Are those unemployed in Horsham? And, if not, can they afford to move to Horsham and live there? Bear in mind their salaries will need to cover their moving costs. Plus a premium for cutting off their friends and family support network.
if there are job vacancies anywhere in the country and they don't take one then benefits should stop immediately. Not for the state to pay for people to chose where and where not they will live. Lazy barstewards.
Hmmmm.
If somebody up your way was offered a job in Dover, but no help with relocation, given the effective death of the affordable rental sector and the disaster that is the housing market I'm not seeing that as entirely equitable.
If they were offered a job within an hour's bus ride* of where they lived that would be rather different.
*Approx three miles, in my experience of buses.
The cut in bus services is the biggest act of self-harm this country has done in decades. If you're disabled, or young, or just poor enough so it's difficult to build up the capital required for even a very basic car, the scope for you to be travel more than a couple of miles from your house has been massively reduced over the last 15 years. And that's before we get to lack of investment in other forms of public transport.
I think it links into housing costs too because young people in work are severely restricted geographically, so competition is fierce anywhere within walking distance of actual jobs.
(and Malcolm has betrayed a lack of uncerstanding of UC - because what he describes is exactly what happens).
Clearly the solution is to reduce the cost of motoring so it becomes accessible to more people rather than forcing the poor onto buses to keep the roads clear for the better off 👍
The cost of motoring has fallen significantly over the last 15 years. The beauty of a bus system like we have in Edinburgh, or a public transport system as in London, is everyone uses and benefits from it. And if you do need to drive, the fact 4/5th of journeys are not by car massively reduces congestion for you.
I'll be getting the bus to the pub this evening, as will the bar staff who will be serving me. When I'm in London, I get the tube and DLR, as does almost everyone else (except for the cyclists).
Just seen Royal Mail trying to cut Sat deliveries for non 1st class post. Meanwhile my postman confirmed there were no deliveries on my round on one day this week Horsham has 18 vacancies that cannot be filled and if a round doesn't happen its cheaper to.pay the fine than deliver the post.
Something is v wrong if this is true
If you can't be bothered to pay for a first class stamp why should you expect to see your letter or parcel delivered on a Saturday?
I normally use 1st class stamps but letters posted in this neck of the woods usually take about a week to be delivered.
So still can be delivered within the week on a Saturday then if sent first class
"Horsham has 18 vacancies that cannot be filled"
And yet millions of young people are sat on the sofa without work or education.
But there are two further questions. Are those unemployed in Horsham? And, if not, can they afford to move to Horsham and live there? Bear in mind their salaries will need to cover their moving costs. Plus a premium for cutting off their friends and family support network.
if there are job vacancies anywhere in the country and they don't take one then benefits should stop immediately. Not for the state to pay for people to chose where and where not they will live. Lazy barstewards.
By anywhere in the country, do you mean anywhere in the UK, or just anywhere in England? Should the unemployed in Scotland be forced to leave their country?
I don’t think it’s been discussed here but unemployment in Scotland (both general and youth) is noticeably lower in Scotland than England, so I guess the migration of jobseekers would tend to one direction.
AI says Scotland's Labour force participation is 74.7%, somewhat below the UK average of 75.1%.
I imagine that's the result of a larger aging population, no doubt including all those pensioners migrating for the Scotch good life.
What does AI say about my point, the unemployment rate in Scotland (both general and youth) compared to England?
Just seen Royal Mail trying to cut Sat deliveries for non 1st class post. Meanwhile my postman confirmed there were no deliveries on my round on one day this week Horsham has 18 vacancies that cannot be filled and if a round doesn't happen its cheaper to.pay the fine than deliver the post.
Something is v wrong if this is true
If you can't be bothered to pay for a first class stamp why should you expect to see your letter or parcel delivered on a Saturday?
I normally use 1st class stamps but letters posted in this neck of the woods usually take about a week to be delivered.
So still can be delivered within the week on a Saturday then if sent first class
"Horsham has 18 vacancies that cannot be filled"
And yet millions of young people are sat on the sofa without work or education.
But there are two further questions. Are those unemployed in Horsham? And, if not, can they afford to move to Horsham and live there? Bear in mind their salaries will need to cover their moving costs. Plus a premium for cutting off their friends and family support network.
if there are job vacancies anywhere in the country and they don't take one then benefits should stop immediately. Not for the state to pay for people to chose where and where not they will live. Lazy barstewards.
By anywhere in the country, do you mean anywhere in the UK, or just anywhere in England? Should the unemployed in Scotland be forced to leave their country?
I don’t think it’s been discussed here but unemployment in Scotland (both general and youth) is noticeably lower in Scotland than England, so I guess the migration of jobseekers would tend to one direction.
AI says Scotland's Labour force participation is 74.7%, somewhat below the UK average of 75.1%.
I imagine that's the result of a larger aging population, no doubt including all those pensioners migrating for the Scotch good life.
What does AI say about my point, the unemployment rate in Scotland (both general and youth) compared to England?
The employment rate (which is what Luckyguy1983 is referencing) excludes people who aren't in the labour force, so it is a good measure. But at 74.7% v 75.1%, you're way inside the error margin on the LFS so it's certainly not "somewhat below" - it's statistically no difference.
And it doesn't take into account sudents, carers, early retirees and so on. And you might still be right anyway, because the rate of caring in particular is higher among older people within the 16-64 year old group, and we might have lots of early retirees. Particularly thinking of O&G and ex-military in the NE.
Just seen Royal Mail trying to cut Sat deliveries for non 1st class post. Meanwhile my postman confirmed there were no deliveries on my round on one day this week Horsham has 18 vacancies that cannot be filled and if a round doesn't happen its cheaper to.pay the fine than deliver the post.
Something is v wrong if this is true
If you can't be bothered to pay for a first class stamp why should you expect to see your letter or parcel delivered on a Saturday?
I normally use 1st class stamps but letters posted in this neck of the woods usually take about a week to be delivered.
So still can be delivered within the week on a Saturday then if sent first class
"Horsham has 18 vacancies that cannot be filled"
And yet millions of young people are sat on the sofa without work or education.
But there are two further questions. Are those unemployed in Horsham? And, if not, can they afford to move to Horsham and live there? Bear in mind their salaries will need to cover their moving costs. Plus a premium for cutting off their friends and family support network.
if there are job vacancies anywhere in the country and they don't take one then benefits should stop immediately. Not for the state to pay for people to chose where and where not they will live. Lazy barstewards.
Hmmmm.
If somebody up your way was offered a job in Dover, but no help with relocation, given the effective death of the affordable rental sector and the disaster that is the housing market I'm not seeing that as entirely equitable.
If they were offered a job within an hour's bus ride* of where they lived that would be rather different.
*Approx three miles, in my experience of buses.
The cut in bus services is the biggest act of self-harm this country has done in decades. If you're disabled, or young, or just poor enough so it's difficult to build up the capital required for even a very basic car, the scope for you to be travel more than a couple of miles from your house has been massively reduced over the last 15 years. And that's before we get to lack of investment in other forms of public transport.
I think it links into housing costs too because young people in work are severely restricted geographically, so competition is fierce anywhere within walking distance of actual jobs.
(and Malcolm has betrayed a lack of uncerstanding of UC - because what he describes is exactly what happens).
Clearly the solution is to reduce the cost of motoring so it becomes accessible to more people rather than forcing the poor onto buses to keep the roads clear for the better off 👍
The cost of motoring has fallen significantly over the last 15 years. The beauty of a bus system like we have in Edinburgh, or a public transport system as in London, is everyone uses and benefits from it. And if you do need to drive, the fact 4/5th of journeys are not by car massively reduces congestion for you.
I'll be getting the bus to the pub this evening, as will the bar staff who will be serving me. When I'm in London, I get the tube and DLR, as does almost everyone else (except for the cyclists).
Has the cost of motoring fallen when the cost of buying a car is factored in? It seems to me that the cost of buying/leasing both new and second hand cars is probably rising faster than earnings and certainly inflation
Just seen Royal Mail trying to cut Sat deliveries for non 1st class post. Meanwhile my postman confirmed there were no deliveries on my round on one day this week Horsham has 18 vacancies that cannot be filled and if a round doesn't happen its cheaper to.pay the fine than deliver the post.
Something is v wrong if this is true
If you can't be bothered to pay for a first class stamp why should you expect to see your letter or parcel delivered on a Saturday?
I normally use 1st class stamps but letters posted in this neck of the woods usually take about a week to be delivered.
So still can be delivered within the week on a Saturday then if sent first class
"Horsham has 18 vacancies that cannot be filled"
And yet millions of young people are sat on the sofa without work or education.
But there are two further questions. Are those unemployed in Horsham? And, if not, can they afford to move to Horsham and live there? Bear in mind their salaries will need to cover their moving costs. Plus a premium for cutting off their friends and family support network.
if there are job vacancies anywhere in the country and they don't take one then benefits should stop immediately. Not for the state to pay for people to chose where and where not they will live. Lazy barstewards.
Hmmmm.
If somebody up your way was offered a job in Dover, but no help with relocation, given the effective death of the affordable rental sector and the disaster that is the housing market I'm not seeing that as entirely equitable.
If they were offered a job within an hour's bus ride* of where they lived that would be rather different.
*Approx three miles, in my experience of buses.
The cut in bus services is the biggest act of self-harm this country has done in decades. If you're disabled, or young, or just poor enough so it's difficult to build up the capital required for even a very basic car, the scope for you to be travel more than a couple of miles from your house has been massively reduced over the last 15 years. And that's before we get to lack of investment in other forms of public transport.
I think it links into housing costs too because young people in work are severely restricted geographically, so competition is fierce anywhere within walking distance of actual jobs.
(and Malcolm has betrayed a lack of uncerstanding of UC - because what he describes is exactly what happens).
Clearly the solution is to reduce the cost of motoring so it becomes accessible to more people rather than forcing the poor onto buses to keep the roads clear for the better off 👍
There's an initial capital cost to motoring which a lot of people will have trouble finding the money for. Many people need to spend a while commuting by public transport while they sort out a car. If you have just been unemployed for a while, you may have debts and/or other urgent things you have been putting off spending money on. And finance companies aren't keen on lending to people who have just been unemployed. And of course many people can't drive, often for medical reasons
Comments
You are meeting the voluble ones - clearly you aren't meeting the shy ones, or you are, they'rejust not revealing their voting preference. Hence designatiing them as shy. Indeed the very fact that 'out and proud' Reform voters are usually very forthright people makes my point.
I'll be getting the bus to the pub this evening, as will the bar staff who will be serving me. When I'm in London, I get the tube and DLR, as does almost everyone else (except for the cyclists).
What does AI say about my point, the unemployment rate in Scotland (both general and youth) compared to England?
And it doesn't take into account sudents, carers, early retirees and so on. And you might still be right anyway, because the rate of caring in particular is higher among older people within the 16-64 year old group, and we might have lots of early retirees. Particularly thinking of O&G and ex-military in the NE.