Labour are, just, the favourites on the most seats markets now – politicalbetting.com
Labour are, just, the favourites on the most seats markets now – politicalbetting.com
Right now Labour are an implied 34% chance of winning most seats at the next general election versus Reform who are a 33.8% chance.
1
Comments
A recognition by the markets that Starmer’s unlikely to make it to the next election.
my 100/1 tipEd Miliband becoming PM?Keir Starmer granted stay of execution as Labour squabbles over successor
From Angela Rayner’s outstanding tax issues to Wes Streeting’s messages to Lord Mandelson, there’s no clear candidate to replace the prime minister
Cabinet ministers believe that Sir Keir Starmer will now survive beyond May by virtue of squabbling between the camps of contenders to replace him.
The events of last week, when Starmer survived an attempt to oust him, left Labour MPs and ministers “increasingly of the view that May might not be the moment,” a Labour source said.
“The smart people are wondering whether the same reasons he fought off last week are still the same in May. It’s a combination of no one can agree, none of the candidates are ready and there’s no organised campaign.
“There is a ‘stop Ed’ [Miliband] campaign, a ‘stop Wes’ [Streeting] campaign and a ‘stop Angela’ [Rayner] campaign,” the source said. “But there is no clear campaign for one candidate without a counter-campaign.”
A close aide to a cabinet minister said: “There’s no obvious candidate. Even without her tax issues, there’s this idea that Rayner is Labour’s Liz Truss, which is very accurate.
The internecine squabbling has led to increasing talk among Labour MPs, including ministers, about the possibility of a “unity candidate” emerging in the form of John Healey, the defence secretary, or Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary. Two Labour MPs suggested that the pair could lead on a joint ticket and Cooper could serve as Healey’s chancellor. A minister suggested that Healey would also make a strong chancellor for Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, who is seen as a leading contender to replace Starmer.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/keir-starmer-leadership-rivals-squabble-may-elections-g9gbn5c9b
The two old parties made housing unaffordable.
Reform is now the home for aspirational young people.
Simon has the real world experience to break the cycle of broken promises.
https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2020931265931985171
The apparently successful launch Rupert Spode's party is new news. He might not win many seats himself, but siphoning off a slice of Farage's vote hurts Reform a lot.
That Starmer probably won't be on the ballot next time shouldn't be news, but apparently is. On such confusions profits and losses are made.
He co-founded an interesting company with 80 employees. A chemicals company.
He’s also since said that the £10bn is the TAM for his product not the value of his shares…
Starmer has weathered the latest storm and Labour panic
Kemi Badenoch is looking more comfortable as Tory leader, pitching the party as just slightly less racist than Reform leaving their more sensible supporters homeless
Reform has peaked, falling migration leading to them turning on non-white British residents - colleagues, your children's classmates, peoples' social circle - and facing additional competition for the racist vote.
Lib Dems have a ceiling, unlikely to break through nationally.
So, when Polanski peaks and Starmer either sorts himself out or is replaced by a sensible choice. Labour are best placed.
Social media ban for under 16s could be in force this year
The prime minister will use new powers to force through faster changes to the law, which could include phone curfews or a clampdown on scrolling features
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/social-media-fuels-gender-dysphoria-among-children-says-expert-lfnt72vv8
I thought it was reasonably well established that there were female Deacons in the early church - not teachers or Rabbis but still a senior pastoral (more significantly than today’s deacons)
On Starmer, reading the runes Labour were never keen to get rid of him before May, no one wanted to take on the horror show elections pending. Their chances of gaining Bute house in May have surely now completely evaporated, but are Labour seriously going to keep the PM in his job the whole year? I don't think his personal ratings are recoverable. Neither do I think he can gain popularity even if households start to feel their money/income is going further
https://x.com/johncleese/status/1887539817484791962?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
That means they now have the same number of councillors at UKIP.
Although he's recently fled the country because, he says, he's been targetted by ISIS, and you can donate some money to help him protect his family. (I happened to be talking to an expert on ISIS at the weekend. They said, no, ISIS are definitely not targetting Tommy Robinson.)
Hmmmmmm
That raises a deep philosophical conundrum
Sweet or salted popcorn?
Although perhaps less good for the deaconesses
Heh!
“Her mother was a nun and her father a monk [further explanation needed]”
Ya think?!
Robinson is not a fan of Farage but he did tell his supporters to back Reform candidate Matt Goodwin in Gorton and Denton
Thus he possibly benefits Farage
His follows.
Is being targeted by ISIS - the new jumping the shark
Good morning, everybody.
Farage remains what he has always been, a rightwing traditional Tory hoping to show enough leg to voters further to the right to persuade them into his camp while maintaining enough distance from outright fascists to keep centre right voters on board. I reckon Lowe unambiguously makes that position harder for him to maintain.
"The Bedfordshire Police officer can be heard informing Robinson during the conversation: "So we have received intelligence that an Isis publication has stated... are encouraging others to commit violence against yourself."
"The constabulary, responsible for policing Robinson's native Luton, verified the telephone exchange was genuine and took place on Thursday, reports the Mirror.
"During the recording, Robinson enquired whether he might obtain a copy of the material, but was advised it is probably classified as proscribed content, which UK residents are prohibited from holding under counter- terrorism legislation. During the call, the officer proceeds to inform Robinson that he lacks authorisation to carry weapons or "take pre-emptive action" against others."
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/tommy-robinson-leaves-uk-after-33424514
Dunno, maybe you, @bondegezou are the sort of ultra-brave type that would shrug off a call by ISIS for its followers to harm or kill you, but I somehow suspect you are not "the ultra-brave type", indeed I imagine you are the absolute opposite, a delta-gamma cuck who would scuttle away if you were slightly menaced by the Salvation Army
Your Party, not so much, unless there is an Overton Window of political ineptitude, which they are eager to fill
The number of people who are astonished when you tell them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wycliffe existed....
Do you thank benefits the forum? Or your soul?
If UK prisons are too soft may be we could swop him for someone in a hell hole despot County, or Hong Kong may be - let the Chinese have him.
He's an interesting chap, El Roop
I find his politics a bit too gamey, even for my rightwing tastes, but he's impressive on camera. Eloquent, calm, unflnching, and with a definite charisma, inasmuch as an old school Tory farming type can be "charismatic"
A Cameroon, he is not, but until about 30-40 years ago gents like him were the backbone of the Conservatives
To the left at some point Polanski will be exposed as anything but a Green and things will turn against him.
Meanwhile the SNP will be left to deal with their own shit and Plaid will realise that Government is not easy.
It all points to the Labour succesor to emerge last 2026 / early 2027 and the longer it goes on the stronger the claims of Darren Jones!
There is of course a train of thought that Starmer’s departure will improve their fortunes - but that isn’t guaranteed. There is an absence of a very popular alternative. I suspect someone like Rayner can unite the left wing vote better than Starmer can but that could also have the opposite effect of driving more voters rightward.
Similarly while Reform’s polling appears to have peaked we’re not seeing any meaningful, significant decline at the moment. I thought that there was the potential, given the number of Tory defections and Badenoch’s mini recovery, that they could see a bit more movement back to the Tories and Labour - there appears to have been a small movement, but nothing seismic and they’re still on course for a strong performance in May. I really don’t think Lowe is going to have any meaningful impact in the polls.
Farage can’t win a majority without Robinson and Lowe voters, he has already lost some Labour 2024 voters who flirted with Reform after welcoming half Liz Truss’ Cabinet into Reform
1)Restore are the party you want to vote for because of XYZ.
2) which party do you want to vote for?
It’s not a valid poll
He should be in jail as a criminal, not deceased as a "martyr".
Excl: The email exchange between Morgan McSweeney and Peter Mandelson — asking about his links to Epstein — is one of the documents that police have asked the government not to publish
It means one of Keir Starmer’s key pieces of evidence could be in limbo for weeks or months
Are you OK ?
Far too good for her.
Jones probably needs a similar mega-promotion to be able to stake a claim, and late 2027/early 2028 probably works better for him, but it's less crazy than some of the suggestions being put forward.
Their write up even states it is not standard wording and should not be compared to regular VI
Which seems a plus.
Zelenskyy calls for stronger sanctions against Russia as peace talks stall:
“Fuck away to Russia. Go home. You don’t respect anybody in the United States. You don’t respect the rules. You don’t respect democracy. You don’t respect Ukraine or Europe. Go home.”
Nothing, my precious.
Mind you, there have been some fairly exciting games, and even the ones with the outcomes that were as expected have been tighter than expected (double Super Over in SA/Afg).
*Actually inflammable isn't a negative of course, it just looks like one.
You cannot interfere with Police, CPS Legal framework for political gain under any circumstances.
Woe betide any opportunist opposition leader or MP who tries to do so or subvert justice.
I do think though that without going in to specifics that The Metropolitan Police and CPS should make occasional updates on progress independently of political interference.
This is common practise, not new and been seen many times in the past.
Massive PR win for Starmer
Ask the Chinese to keep him for 10 years minimum
He has stated all information has to be sent to the Intelligence committee and they, acting on behalf of parliament, will decide