The pollsters have spoken about that FindOutNow poll – politicalbetting.com
The pollsters have spoken about that FindOutNow poll – politicalbetting.com
I always think more information is good and particularly so in a race like this where voters across spectrum will be thinking tactically. I worry however that an opinion poll with such a small sample risks obscuring the contours & narratives of the race rather than helping voters.
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UK physics research and science facilities face ‘substantial’ cuts
Science and Technology Facilities Council seeks £162m cost savings, with existing projects facing axe
https://www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-research-councils-2026-1-uk-physics-research-and-science-facilities-face-substantial-cuts/
In that case then the sample should have included respondents from that community .
https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/2015780557599146049
Or are they just in a more desperate state of their finances?
You can see why they’ve posted it as it’s news and I suspect they think that the representative group of people willing to waste time on a bad website in the hope of cash is representative enough to be worth posting but it probably seriously underestimates the Muslim and student demographics
Good morning, everyone.
Does Galloway really peel votes away from the Greens?
FoN remains our favourite polling company on PB unless Lord Ashcroft arrives with a similarity nice one.
The existence of Find Out Now implies the existence of a second pollster called Fuck Around Now
Why should anyone be pleased with such a poll
When I first saw it I thought a digit was missing but a poll of 143 is simply unreliable
There will be more from other pollsters and then lets see, and in the meantime ignore FON
But in principle, asking a quick question on a site people are visiting for other purposes might be better than taking a massive sample of people prepared to sit through half an hour of inane questions, or running a panel, if it means less need for weighting to fix sampling problems.
“NHS is worse than Sudan for patients’ mortality rate
Britain ranked 141st out of 205 countries for deaths from ‘adverse effects of medical treatment’”
Telegraph
@patrickwintour
From IPPR report
"ChatGPT’s top source was the Guardian, which was used as a source in 58 per cent of responses, and linked to far more than any other outlet, followed by Reuters, the Independent, and the Financial Times".
Think of the number of A level essays written by the Guardian.
https://x.com/patrickwintour/status/2016788595172835636?s=20
Note that is for The Lottery rather than this lottery.
But the bigger point is that it's too easy to create the superficial image of something (in this case an opinion poll) with rather wobbly mechanisms in the background. Another manifestation of the same thing, at some level.
We want abundant, cheap and now, and stuff the future. (STDC does big pure science, which is the ultimate in "this will probably generate a return overall, we just don't know which hits or when".)
The human desire has always been there, what's different is the willingness to deliver it.
Whatever happened to leaving something better for future generations?
That said it's true that professional pollsters in Britain mostly wouldn't do this, so the fact that these characters did is a sign that everything else about the poll may also be wonky.
Their journalists, especially the masters and masteresses of the unhinged headline, work on the subjective rather than the objective. From a great organ of Fleet Street The Telegraph has become an unworthy comic, which is a shame.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/506a5224e77a3fcf
Gift link so no paywall. Note to Kemi's PMQs team: your lot were in charge.
I got told off recently for quoting a poll with 2000 responses so you just can't win.
On a more general point about polling and campaigning, it's a dreadful poll for Reform - I've fought enough elections to know the one place you don't want to be early is in front with a small lead because that paints a great big target on your back.
The second place party - especially if it's within touching distance of the leader will also be happy to see a large and potentially squeezable third party vote. The campaign messaging more or less writes itself.
1. Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House?: 20
2. Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate?: 3
3. Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election?: 59
4. Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election?: 44
5. UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage (British Polling Council registered pollsters only)?: Reform, 16%
6. Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC?: 16%
7. Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026?: 11
8. The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026?: Angela Rayner
9. Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026?: No
10. UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025)?: £121 bn
11. UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025)?: 1.5%
12. Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup?: Argentina
* technically ambient so as not to attract VAT
Starmer stands at a diminutive 5ft 9. The same height as the statuesque Johnson.
https://x.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/2016744849332903997
By the way, the actual report is here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/Stories/global-state-patient-safety-2025/
Edit: Sorry, I just noticed that noneoftheabove already made the same obvious point.
Reform can win but not sure they deserve to be favourites..
It's why he got rid of Rayner, because she kept standing next to him in heels.
“Attached to this order is an appendix that identifies 96 court orders that ICE has violated in 74 cases. … ICE has likely violated more court orders in January 2026 than some federal agencies have violated in their entire existence.”
https://x.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/2016642763169669307
AI is being presented as bringing average up to excellent. Its core advantage - at present at least - is bringing poor up to average-plus.
(So experts can't understand its value and normies think it's great.)
That's why Johnson always looks shorter than he is.
And a Good Morning to one and all.
It is typically short sighted that we haven't reflected about who will be choosing our nursing homes in due course. Or what other amendments could be made to the current bill for that matter.
Quoting the thread, this poll doesn't "risk" trashing the wider credibility of Find Out Now, it has definitely trashed it. Clearly the veracity of their polling methodology is a negligible consideration compared to the need to generate headlines to support their business model.
This then has much wider implications. If the tiny subset motivated to do the "Pick My Postcode" lottery have any substantive biases compared to the general population (which a moment's reflection tells you they will have, in spades), then what this poll tells you is that if Find Out Know know that they can't properly correct for those biases in political polling with weighting (something inherently difficult to do properly with a heavily skewed sample) then they'll still publish their polling regardless because the profile it generates helps their business model. They'll devote as much effort as necessary to window dressing to provide a fig leaf of an argument that their methodology is reliable, all that matters to them is that they can carry it off not whether that argument is correct.
Read by Elizabeth Warren.
https://x.com/mazemoore/status/2016676363277664512?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
In better news for the US President, there was a 100% increase in the audience for its second showing...
"Undeveloped or developing countries are less likely to carry out as many medical procedures or treatments as in the UK, while the accuracy of reporting incidents may not be as robust."
Incidentally, since the craft, and their engines are abandoned when they arrive in Kent, what happens to the engines etc? Are they sold on the secondhand market (please say no!) or are they scrapped?
Let 'em all die.
Now its a welfare state with a country.
"Starmer making his visit to China all about the "cost of living" in the UK shows him to be deeply unserious about geopolitics..."
.....oh and it looked like tripe
The UK spends too much on welfare.
Most other first world countries spend too much on welfare.
The only variants are the precise ways, the magnitudes and the speeds which those countries are damaging themselves.
It is the latest swathe of closures by the Spanish-owned bank which, like others on the high street, is closing bricks-and-mortar stores as customers move online.
Last year, it announced plans to close 95, or a quarter, of its branches which had 750 workers. Lloyds Bank is also planning to shut more than 100 branches by March under a scheme of closures announced last year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq8415jjw92o
SFAICS the only big western exception to our sort of levels of state managed expenditure is the USA. The USA has many things to emulate, but, for example, we should also ask: Is there a relation between USA welfarism generally and the fact that they have a prison population of 1,800,000.
Happened to us once. We 'won' some sort of small 'decorative' cheeseboard, so put it back in the next raffle. Went round to a colleagues house shortly afterwards and saw it proudly displayed as a mantelpiece centrepiece.
There are already 48 countries who have this.