I saw this snippet on twitter but can’t find who wrote this but I think it’s hard to disagree with this . It’s really quite tragic . In a word we’re fxcked !
“Britain's position is especially exposed. We can wield little influence over an erratic president, and we have severed ourselves from the European Union - a strategic error that looks more egregious with each passing day. The Brexit prospectus was built for a benign geopolitical environment, predicated on deepening transatlanticism. Those assumptions have collapsed. The three pillars of recent British foreign policy - the US relationship, EU membership, and Commonwealth influence - have largely evaporated. Our vassal status is becoming harder to deny. Keir Starmer often says it is folly to choose between Europe and the United States. The truth is we now have neither.”
What’s needed is for people to stop fighting yesterday’s war. Let’s not rehearse Brexit arguments. People like me are never going to want to rejoin and people like you will always want to.
However, in practice it ain’t happening any time soon even if the British position was to join and that looked like a politically sustainable policy in Parliament. So instead what’s needed (and in fairness, this seems to be where Starmer is) is economic alignment on many goods on the basis our manufacturers will do it anyway, but to expect divergence elsewhere (sometimes us and sometimes the EU - for example their bonkers AI regs). If we can settle that relationship and be adult about it, then we can move beyond arguing and be part of a wider western alliance as Carney suggests. And we are vital to any western alliance that doesn’t include the Americans for a range of reasons, so we need to step up.
If you can win the argument to join the EU in due course then that’s your platform. If you can’t (and I hope you can’t) we’re still in a good place we can all benefit from, and we can build our future from there.
The EU beginning to talk the CPTPP about a future partnership is interesting, and really important to the U.K (and Canada actually). That’s the ticket to an actual border western economic alliance including Japan and South Korea.
It's interesting that the timescale seems a lot shorter this time. Maybe that's because of the reaction in the bond market.
I wonder whether bond traders and political leaders will decide they can pretend everything is back to normal, or if they will take it as another warning to reduce exposure to the US before the next episode of the Trump circus.
Someone's nicked his phone. Unbelievably bad timing for Farage, should have held his tongue on it.
It's very clearly not written by him, his personal style is very hard to imitate and that's not even close. I'm sure he's agreed to it of course, but he let someone else craft the message.
Rutte, ChatGPT, and MI6's copy of the Epstein files.
It's interesting that the timescale seems a lot shorter this time. Maybe that's because of the reaction in the bond market.
I wonder whether bond traders and political leaders will decide they can pretend everything is back to normal, or if they will take it as another warning to reduce exposure to the US before the next episode of the Trump circus.
With Trump, evenone seems to like to go back to pretending, maybe with token additional efforts. It'd be nice to think that on this occasion they can see that more may be needed if he's never going to stop this crap.
It is unlikely that Trump could take Greenland without a single casualty. And impossible to do so with Canada. He now won't do either, so it seems.
On reflection here is a question Trump and his gangster friends must have asked politically if not humanly: Would American public opinion be prepared for even a single American military life to be sacrificed to conquer Greenland or Canada? I don't think so.
If it proves to be the case that Greenland and Canada are now not on the sovereignty agenda the loss of face is immense.
If this is indeed a brief “reprieve” from US predation, then I do hope the democracy-loathing elite superfans in London and Brussels don’t return to their comfort zone of appeasing Trump and hoping for the best.
It's not really TACO though. He achieved his objective of dominating Davos. He had a blast.
He did. You're not a fan, neither am I. But though he comes over as a crazy there was hardly any dementia to be detected in all the braggadocio, fantasy and absurdity, and there were many uncomfortable home truths delivered to the gobsmacked audience. This is diplomacy, but not as we know it, Jim
Someone's nicked his phone. Unbelievably bad timing for Farage, should have held his tongue on it.
It's very clearly not written by him, his personal style is very hard to imitate and that's not even close. I'm sure he's agreed to it of course, but he let someone else craft the message.
Rutte, ChatGPT, and MI6's copy of the Epstein files.
“Pay attention 007. Your target is a fat Nazi sex pest who is obsessed with gold”.
If this is indeed a brief “reprieve” from US predation, then I do hope the democracy-loathing elite superfans in London and Brussels don’t return to their comfort zone of appeasing Trump and hoping for the best.
Normalcy bias means that they probably will, but we should treat Trump's threats as being merely delayed and assume that we won't be lucky next time.
It's interesting that the timescale seems a lot shorter this time. Maybe that's because of the reaction in the bond market.
I wonder whether bond traders and political leaders will decide they can pretend everything is back to normal, or if they will take it as another warning to reduce exposure to the US before the next episode of the Trump circus.
With Trump, evenone seems to like to go back to pretending, maybe with token additional efforts. It'd be nice to think that on this occasion they can see that more may be needed if he's never going to stop this crap.
It is possible the Carney's speech will, over time, be the beginning of the end of middle powers sucking up. A mixture of ignoring Trump and normalising our political behaviour would be a relief.
It's interesting that the timescale seems a lot shorter this time. Maybe that's because of the reaction in the bond market.
I wonder whether bond traders and political leaders will decide they can pretend everything is back to normal, or if they will take it as another warning to reduce exposure to the US before the next episode of the Trump circus.
With Trump, evenone seems to like to go back to pretending, maybe with token additional efforts. It'd be nice to think that on this occasion they can see that more may be needed if he's never going to stop this crap.
I guess it's a mistake to talk about politicians collectively. We know Carney gets it, and there are signs that Merz has cast aside any delusions. Starmer might be the last to do so, but there are others who might react to this psychodrama.
Worth noting today's Focaldata is their first public offering since late November 2025 and the changes announced are from that poll not some hypothetical poll announced last week.
To argue therefore the ups and downs are directly related to the defection of Jenrick last week is patently absurd - we don't know from this poll what impact (if any) those events had. Over a two month period we can see some changes but those changes might have been the same had this poll been taken before the events of last week.
Why some people on here have trouble reading fieldwork and comparison dates is a mystery - anyone would think they were trying to spin the numbers to make a cheap point (not that anyone does that).
We've had three polls in the field in the past few days - YouGov, Focaldata and More In Common and while the figures for Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems are broadly consistent, Reform are much higher with More In Common and Greens much higher with YouGov.
I don't "average" polls - you can't. If you said to me the current state was Reform 25%, Labour 20%, Conservative 20%, LD 13%, Greens 10%, would I believe it - yes, I probably would.
Maybe he's folded having only just realised he was trying to get Greenland when he really wants Iceland.
My hunch is that someone finally managed to get him to listen long enough to explain that "owning" Greenland but losing all the US bases in Europe would be a very bad deal.
It's not really TACO though. He achieved his objective of dominating Davos. He had a blast.
He did. You're not a fan, neither am I. But though he comes over as a crazy there was hardly any dementia to be detected in all the braggadocio, fantasy and absurdity, and there were many uncomfortable home truths delivered to the gobsmacked audience. This is diplomacy, but not as we know it, Jim
A deeply malevolent imbecile without the excuse of dementia. He's bad not mad. His drivers are $$$ and ego-fuelling attention. Both of these he is receiving in bucket loads.
I do wonder if this whole march up the hill on Greenland has been some sort of elaborate ruse to sort something else out away from the glare.
It often feels like everything Trump does is a new distraction from the previous distraction which was a distraction from the previous outrage, which itself was just a distraction from... the Epstein Files. And the corruption.
If this is indeed a brief “reprieve” from US predation, then I do hope the democracy-loathing elite superfans in London and Brussels don’t return to their comfort zone of appeasing Trump and hoping for the best.
So how much would you cut welfare and pensions by to funnel into defence spending? I'd go for £50bn out of working age welfare (unemployment, disability and in work) and a further £30bn from public sector and state pensions by imposing a 5 year freeze on contributions and abolishing the triple lock.
Push £60bn into the defence budget and £20bn on energy security/infrastructure investment. If we want to be truly independent of American, Chinese, Russian or other influence then we need to be a net energy exporter and we need a military that the rest of the world fears to cross. Of the £60bn I'd set aside £10bn of it for the first 10 years on developing and building a truly independent nuclear deterrent and phasing out trident or at least no longer solely relying on the kindness of America for our nuclear programme.
The UK has become fat and bloated with welfare and generous public sector pensions (and payrolls). It's not just hurting the economy now, it's actively harming our position in the world and makes us beholden to America which as we can see is not acceptable in the short, medium or long term.
Someone's nicked his phone. Unbelievably bad timing for Farage, should have held his tongue on it.
It's very clearly not written by him, his personal style is very hard to imitate and that's not even close. I'm sure he's agreed to it of course, but he let someone else craft the message.
The em dash is odd, written in the British style. AI or an Anglophile staffer. (There again, Trump himself often wears British ties.)
It's interesting that the timescale seems a lot shorter this time. Maybe that's because of the reaction in the bond market.
I wonder whether bond traders and political leaders will decide they can pretend everything is back to normal, or if they will take it as another warning to reduce exposure to the US before the next episode of the Trump circus.
Given how volatile Trump is and the SC have kicked the can down the road on tariffs, again, I cannot see how anyone rational can assume the former.
It's not really TACO though. He achieved his objective of dominating Davos. He had a blast.
He did. You're not a fan, neither am I. But though he comes over as a crazy there was hardly any dementia to be detected in all the braggadocio, fantasy and absurdity, and there were many uncomfortable home truths delivered to the gobsmacked audience. This is diplomacy, but not as we know it, Jim
I was going to have a listen to Trump's speech, but then I learnt that it was 75 minutes.
Er .. no thanks.
He does not do braggadocio; he does gormless twattery on a random walk.
And he's done all sides of almost everything, which guarantees that none of it can be trusted, so it all has to be ignore, other than for use as a pacifier for mad grandpa who escaped from the mental hospital.
If this is indeed a brief “reprieve” from US predation, then I do hope the democracy-loathing elite superfans in London and Brussels don’t return to their comfort zone of appeasing Trump and hoping for the best.
So how much would you cut welfare and pensions by to funnel into defence spending? I'd go for £50bn out of working age welfare (unemployment, disability and in work) and a further £30bn from public sector and state pensions by imposing a 5 year freeze on contributions and abolishing the triple lock.
Push £60bn into the defence budget and £20bn on energy security/infrastructure investment. If we want to be truly independent of American, Chinese, Russian or other influence then we need to be a net energy exporter and we need a military that the rest of the world fears to cross. Of the £60bn I'd set aside £10bn of it for the first 10 years on developing and building a truly independent nuclear deterrent and phasing out trident or at least no longer solely relying on the kindness of America for our nuclear programme.
The UK has become fat and bloated with welfare and generous public sector pensions (and payrolls). It's not just hurting the economy now, it's actively harming our position in the world and makes us beholden to America which as we can see is not acceptable in the short, medium or long term.
I suspect the only way to save £50bn from working age welfare would be to remove housing benefit - now that would be fun to watch - but preferably from a distance and definitely not if you are a landlord.
Labour raising taxes on hard working people to pay benefits. Labour punishing business and farming. Labour anti-aspiration.
The Tories, with a Damascene conversion after 2010 - 2024 but she’s saying the right stuff. She seems comfortable on camera and talking to people
If I were Kemi, or indeed whoever in Labour fancies Number 10, I'd look for a solution to the student debt problem.
Looking through that YouGov thread it would seem that doing something for students and ex-students could be key for Labour. If they don't then Polanski is very likely to promise to do so.
I'd like to see the final deal before deciding if anyone has "won".
There is no deal.
Trump can now place some missiles on Greenland, as he could have always done more quickly via a junior US military officer emailing their Danish counterpart.
Greenland will remain a part of Denmark. Increased Danish and non-US NATO troops will remain there. No tariffs will come into effect for said nations.
It's an utter capitulation from Trump, for now at least.
But if I were Starmer I would be calling it a very hard won deal to Trump's face. Keep the oversized toddler happy.
It does look like a complete climb down by Trump but it would be an illusion to think that we are back to the status quo. The threat of tariffs and military threats against allies will not be forgotten. The world has changed as Carney has spelt out. No one pretends any longer that the US is a reliable ally. The steps to reduce reliance on the US will continue. He has done immense damage to the US and its standing in the world. Again.
I'd like to see the final deal before deciding if anyone has "won".
There is no deal.
Trump can now place some missiles on Greenland, as he could have always done more quickly via a junior US military officer emailing their Danish counterpart.
Greenland will remain a part of Denmark. Increased Danish and non-US NATO troops will remain there. No tariffs will come into effect for said nations.
It's an utter capitulation from Trump, for now at least.
But if I were Starmer I would be calling it a very hard won deal to Trump's face. Keep the oversized toddler happy.
It does look like a complete climb down by Trump but it would be an illusion to think that we are back to the status quo. The threat of tariffs and military threats against allies will not be forgotten. The world has changed as Carney has spelt out. No one pretends any longer that the US is a reliable ally. The steps to reduce reliance on the US will continue. He has done immense damage to the US and its standing in the world. Again.
This is the thing - he's been crass and aggressive before, sure, and bluffed and bullied, and because the USA is so powerful and the relationship worthwhile countries look the other way and move on.
This time he militarily threatened NATO allies, that is so far over the line. He's now said he won't do that, I guess, and very desperate people will say it was crude but ok because he never really meant it, but the very threat is such a deal breaker.
We very clearly saw that the vast majority of his political minions were going to go along with military action if he required it too, so the fact it did not happen does not excuse ignoring it by thinking it could never happen.
Maybe he's folded having only just realised he was trying to get Greenland when he really wants Iceland.
I reckon he has this pattern because he's riding the waves of publicity. He milks one approach for all it's worth, then before the publicity starts to ebb he goes in the opposite direction which generates another wave of publicity.
Comments
However, in practice it ain’t happening any time soon even if the British position was to join and that looked like a politically sustainable policy in Parliament. So instead what’s needed (and in fairness, this seems to be where Starmer is) is economic alignment on many goods on the basis our manufacturers will do it anyway, but to expect divergence elsewhere (sometimes us and sometimes the EU - for example their bonkers AI regs). If we can settle that relationship and be adult about it, then we can move beyond arguing and be part of a wider western alliance as Carney suggests. And we are vital to any western alliance that doesn’t include the Americans for a range of reasons, so we need to step up.
If you can win the argument to join the EU in due course then that’s your platform. If you can’t (and I hope you can’t) we’re still in a good place we can all benefit from, and we can build our future from there.
The EU beginning to talk the CPTPP about a future partnership is interesting, and really important to the U.K (and Canada actually). That’s the ticket to an actual border western economic alliance including Japan and South Korea.
I wonder whether bond traders and political leaders will decide they can pretend everything is back to normal, or if they will take it as another warning to reduce exposure to the US before the next episode of the Trump circus.
Stephen Daisley" (£)
https://spectator.com/article/europe-must-give-trump-what-he-wants/
On reflection here is a question Trump and his gangster friends must have asked politically if not humanly: Would American public opinion be prepared for even a single American military life to be sacrificed to conquer Greenland or Canada? I don't think so.
If it proves to be the case that Greenland and Canada are now not on the sovereignty agenda the loss of face is immense.
“Haven’t we done this one before Sir?”
To argue therefore the ups and downs are directly related to the defection of Jenrick last week is patently absurd - we don't know from this poll what impact (if any) those events had. Over a two month period we can see some changes but those changes might have been the same had this poll been taken before the events of last week.
Why some people on here have trouble reading fieldwork and comparison dates is a mystery - anyone would think they were trying to spin the numbers to make a cheap point (not that anyone does that).
We've had three polls in the field in the past few days - YouGov, Focaldata and More In Common and while the figures for Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems are broadly consistent, Reform are much higher with More In Common and Greens much higher with YouGov.
I don't "average" polls - you can't. If you said to me the current state was Reform 25%, Labour 20%, Conservative 20%, LD 13%, Greens 10%, would I believe it - yes, I probably would.
Don't drink 34 Jagerbombs in half an hour.
The palpitations aren't fun.
Shit-policy as media-management strategy.
Push £60bn into the defence budget and £20bn on energy security/infrastructure investment. If we want to be truly independent of American, Chinese, Russian or other influence then we need to be a net energy exporter and we need a military that the rest of the world fears to cross. Of the £60bn I'd set aside £10bn of it for the first 10 years on developing and building a truly independent nuclear deterrent and phasing out trident or at least no longer solely relying on the kindness of America for our nuclear programme.
The UK has become fat and bloated with welfare and generous public sector pensions (and payrolls). It's not just hurting the economy now, it's actively harming our position in the world and makes us beholden to America which as we can see is not acceptable in the short, medium or long term.
No way do I want him as PM.
https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3mcwvygckbk2x
Er .. no thanks.
He does not do braggadocio; he does gormless twattery on a random walk.
And he's done all sides of almost everything, which guarantees that none of it can be trusted, so it all has to be ignore, other than for use as a pacifier for mad grandpa who escaped from the mental hospital.
NEW THREAD
COLLINS: Does it include the US having ownership of Greenland?
TRUMP: It's a long term deal. It's the ultimate long term deal
COLLINS: How long is it?
TRUMP: Infinite. There is no time limit. It's a deal that's forever.
Is it possible the 'deal' he was offered was the US can put as many bases as they want in Greenland and fuck all else?
Another T20 league.
This time Europe.
https://x.com/espncricinfo/status/2013800315985056124?s=61
A Greenlander's point of view.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMPe_e-WRMk
* Yes, it does exist: https://rowan441.github.io/1dchess/chess.html
And the correct response is to acquiesce. Right.
This time he militarily threatened NATO allies, that is so far over the line. He's now said he won't do that, I guess, and very desperate people will say it was crude but ok because he never really meant it, but the very threat is such a deal breaker.
We very clearly saw that the vast majority of his political minions were going to go along with military action if he required it too, so the fact it did not happen does not excuse ignoring it by thinking it could never happen.