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Ed Davey is the choice of the voters to be PM after the next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,416

    If Khamenei flees, it surely will be to Moscow. Hard to see anyone else in the region will want the potential trouble.

    Don't think Russia's too keen on Muslim clerics.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,263

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Foss said:

    Trump says Khamenei planning to flee.

    He is often full of BS, but could be onto something.

    As long as it's not here then that's probably for the best. I wonder if he'll end up in Moscow like Assad?
    Just what Putin needs, a Muslim cleric speaking out of Moscow...
    That the leading lights of the revolution, in Iran, have their Go-Bags packed is well known. For years, they have been buying property abroad, setting up their kids in jobs and universities abroad.
    To be honest, most sensible tyrants have an escape plan of some sort to ensure personal survival given they are mostly cowards. We know there's plenty of property in London owned by wealthy Arabs and if and when the Saudis, Kuwaitis, Bahrainis. Qataris and others decide they no longer want to be ruled by autocrats, said autocrats, albeit down to their last few hundred billion, will doubtless be offered sanctuary in the UK where they can do their bit for the economy by employing the locals to clean their houses, wash their cars etc.
    Strangely, some don't. Some of them meet terrible ends, when rich obscurity and safety was just a private jet flight away.
    Well Saddam and Gaddafi didn't manage to get their boarding passes in time. Assad did, but you have to wonder how much he is really enjoying the hospitality in Moscow.
    I don't think Khamenei will flee. He's 87, his legacy within the theocracy means more than a few years of poor health in Moscow. Though this assumes the regime will fall in his life time, something I doubt. It took Syria a decade to oust Assad even with Western support. Also American bombing might be tricky as their carriers are currently hanging around South America.
    I think he’ll hot foot it out of there at the first serious sign that the regime is crumbling. He won’t want to risk the Gaddafi or Ceausescu treatment.

    It seems exceptionally likely that the regime dies with him in any event, but these protests do appear to be snowballing and the regime is already at its weakest point. I don’t think it’s inconceivable that it collapses.
    Is Khameni popular in Afghanistan? Or is he the wrong sort of Muslim?
    Wrong sort! Iran (Shi'a) was fighting the Taliban (Sunni) long before the West was.

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Foss said:

    Trump says Khamenei planning to flee.

    He is often full of BS, but could be onto something.

    As long as it's not here then that's probably for the best. I wonder if he'll end up in Moscow like Assad?
    Just what Putin needs, a Muslim cleric speaking out of Moscow...
    That the leading lights of the revolution, in Iran, have their Go-Bags packed is well known. For years, they have been buying property abroad, setting up their kids in jobs and universities abroad.
    To be honest, most sensible tyrants have an escape plan of some sort to ensure personal survival given they are mostly cowards. We know there's plenty of property in London owned by wealthy Arabs and if and when the Saudis, Kuwaitis, Bahrainis. Qataris and others decide they no longer want to be ruled by autocrats, said autocrats, albeit down to their last few hundred billion, will doubtless be offered sanctuary in the UK where they can do their bit for the economy by employing the locals to clean their houses, wash their cars etc.
    Strangely, some don't. Some of them meet terrible ends, when rich obscurity and safety was just a private jet flight away.
    Well Saddam and Gaddafi didn't manage to get their boarding passes in time. Assad did, but you have to wonder how much he is really enjoying the hospitality in Moscow.
    I don't think Khamenei will flee. He's 87, his legacy within the theocracy means more than a few years of poor health in Moscow. Though this assumes the regime will fall in his life time, something I doubt. It took Syria a decade to oust Assad even with Western support. Also American bombing might be tricky as their carriers are currently hanging around South America.
    I think he’ll hot foot it out of there at the first serious sign that the regime is crumbling. He won’t want to risk the Gaddafi or Ceausescu treatment.

    It seems exceptionally likely that the regime dies with him in any event, but these protests do appear to be snowballing and the regime is already at its weakest point. I don’t think it’s inconceivable that it collapses.
    Is Khameni popular in Afghanistan? Or is he the wrong sort of Muslim?
    Wrong sort! Iran (Shi'a) was fighting the Taliban (Sunni) long before the West was.
    Thanks; I did wonder but couldn't be bothered to do the research. I knew someone here would know! I don't think there's another significant Sunni state, is there?
    Shi'a. There isn't another significant Shi'a state after Iran. Well, Iraq partly is now. Syria was Alawite dominated, and they're a subbranch of Shi'a, but the new government is Sunni-led. There are lots of Sunni states.
    Iraq is majority Shia, and Azerbaijan is also Shia.
    I did wonder about Azerbaijan as a bolthole. Can't see Iraq being a 'good idea'!
    Does Azerbaijan need the heat?
    You mean there's a Baku-p Plan?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,340
    Roger said:

    A strange thought..... I have a few issues with Starmer and Labour to do with authoritarianism and lack of principles but compared to their only realistic opponents- Badenoch's Tories and Farage's fascists- there's no comparison.......

    .......But today I went to see the film 'Hamnet' which is universally liked and I loathed it. I'm a Shakespeare fan and pretty well know Hamlet off by heart. I also like slow paced thoughtful films so all round this film could have been made for me

    ...And then a strange thought hit me: Maybe its not Badenoch and Farage....Maybe it's me!

    On the other hand Roger you could be right and everyone else could be wrong.

    I remember reading a comparison in the Telegraph about the lives of Glenn Frey and David Bowie who both died around the time of Christmas 2016. It was an article contrasting the author's view that Frey was a talentless fraud whilst Bowie was a musical genius. Save for Rebel, Rebel I hate most of Bowie's output and I saw Bowie as a pretentious dick (although giving All the Young Dudes to Mott the Hoople was a wonderful act of generosity) and I see the Eagles' legacy as far more valuable. So on that score I am in a minority of one. But of course I am right and they are all wrong.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,936

    HYUFD said:

    'Exclusive: Labour's support has collapsed among school and college staff, according to a poll carried out on behalf of the country's biggest education union.The poll, shared exclusively with PoliticsHome, found that support for Labour among members of the National Education Union (NEU) has fallen by 70 per cent since the July 2024 general election.

    The findings come as NEU leader Daniel Kebede warned that conditions have worsened for teachers and others working in education since Keir Starmer's party entered office.

    Deltapoll surveyed 3,751 NEU members in England between December 12-15. The poll found that while 60 per cent of respondents said they voted Labour in 2024, 18 per cent would do so if a general election were held tomorrow.

    While Labour's popularity has fallen sharply, support for the Greens among members of the education union has risen from 10 per cent to 23 per cent — making Zack Polanski's party the most popular option among this cohort. The Greens have been on the rise nationwide since Polanski became leader in September, with the left-wing London Assembly Member's growing popularity seemingly coming at the expense of the Labour vote
    Support for the Liberal Democrats among NEU members has fallen from 9 per cent to 7 per cent, according to the poll, while the Conservatives have remained at 4 per cent. Reform UK's popularity rose slightly from 3 to 6 per cent, the same level of support being shown for Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana's left-wing project, Your Party.'

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/labour-support-among-neu-teachers-collapses-poll-finds

    Greens at only 23%? Given that at the last GE the Greens promised to abolish Ofsted, end high-stakes primary and secondary school tests, and scrap tuition fees, I'm surprised they're not at around 80%.
    Hang on. The aggregate all party support totals 64%, so are we comparing a prior total with Don't Knows stripped to a current total with Don't Knows included?
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,887

    Roger said:

    A strange thought..... I have a few issues with Starmer and Labour to do with authoritarianism and lack of principles but compared to their only realistic opponents- Badenoch's Tories and Farage's fascists- there's no comparison.......

    .......But today I went to see the film 'Hamnet' which is universally liked and I loathed it. I'm a Shakespeare fan and pretty well know Hamlet off by heart. I also like slow paced thoughtful films so all round this film could have been made for me

    ...And then a strange thought hit me: Maybe its not Badenoch and Farage....Maybe it's me!

    On the other hand Roger you could be right and everyone else could be wrong.

    I remember reading a comparison in the Telegraph about the lives of Glenn Frey and David Bowie who both died around the time of Christmas 2016. It was an article contrasting the author's view that Frey was a talentless fraud whilst Bowie was a musical genius. Save for Rebel, Rebel I hate most of Bowie's output and I saw Bowie as a pretentious dick (although giving All the Young Dudes to Mott the Hoople was a wonderful act of generosity) and I see the Eagles' legacy as far more valuable. So on that score I am in a minority of one. But of course I am right and they are all wrong.
    You’re not really. I do like The Eagles and Glen Frey is a supreme talent as well as a driving force, with Henley, behind the bands success.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,416

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Foss said:

    Trump says Khamenei planning to flee.

    He is often full of BS, but could be onto something.

    As long as it's not here then that's probably for the best. I wonder if he'll end up in Moscow like Assad?
    Just what Putin needs, a Muslim cleric speaking out of Moscow...
    That the leading lights of the revolution, in Iran, have their Go-Bags packed is well known. For years, they have been buying property abroad, setting up their kids in jobs and universities abroad.
    To be honest, most sensible tyrants have an escape plan of some sort to ensure personal survival given they are mostly cowards. We know there's plenty of property in London owned by wealthy Arabs and if and when the Saudis, Kuwaitis, Bahrainis. Qataris and others decide they no longer want to be ruled by autocrats, said autocrats, albeit down to their last few hundred billion, will doubtless be offered sanctuary in the UK where they can do their bit for the economy by employing the locals to clean their houses, wash their cars etc.
    Strangely, some don't. Some of them meet terrible ends, when rich obscurity and safety was just a private jet flight away.
    Well Saddam and Gaddafi didn't manage to get their boarding passes in time. Assad did, but you have to wonder how much he is really enjoying the hospitality in Moscow.
    I don't think Khamenei will flee. He's 87, his legacy within the theocracy means more than a few years of poor health in Moscow. Though this assumes the regime will fall in his life time, something I doubt. It took Syria a decade to oust Assad even with Western support. Also American bombing might be tricky as their carriers are currently hanging around South America.
    I think he’ll hot foot it out of there at the first serious sign that the regime is crumbling. He won’t want to risk the Gaddafi or Ceausescu treatment.

    It seems exceptionally likely that the regime dies with him in any event, but these protests do appear to be snowballing and the regime is already at its weakest point. I don’t think it’s inconceivable that it collapses.
    Is Khameni popular in Afghanistan? Or is he the wrong sort of Muslim?
    Wrong sort! Iran (Shi'a) was fighting the Taliban (Sunni) long before the West was.

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Foss said:

    Trump says Khamenei planning to flee.

    He is often full of BS, but could be onto something.

    As long as it's not here then that's probably for the best. I wonder if he'll end up in Moscow like Assad?
    Just what Putin needs, a Muslim cleric speaking out of Moscow...
    That the leading lights of the revolution, in Iran, have their Go-Bags packed is well known. For years, they have been buying property abroad, setting up their kids in jobs and universities abroad.
    To be honest, most sensible tyrants have an escape plan of some sort to ensure personal survival given they are mostly cowards. We know there's plenty of property in London owned by wealthy Arabs and if and when the Saudis, Kuwaitis, Bahrainis. Qataris and others decide they no longer want to be ruled by autocrats, said autocrats, albeit down to their last few hundred billion, will doubtless be offered sanctuary in the UK where they can do their bit for the economy by employing the locals to clean their houses, wash their cars etc.
    Strangely, some don't. Some of them meet terrible ends, when rich obscurity and safety was just a private jet flight away.
    Well Saddam and Gaddafi didn't manage to get their boarding passes in time. Assad did, but you have to wonder how much he is really enjoying the hospitality in Moscow.
    I don't think Khamenei will flee. He's 87, his legacy within the theocracy means more than a few years of poor health in Moscow. Though this assumes the regime will fall in his life time, something I doubt. It took Syria a decade to oust Assad even with Western support. Also American bombing might be tricky as their carriers are currently hanging around South America.
    I think he’ll hot foot it out of there at the first serious sign that the regime is crumbling. He won’t want to risk the Gaddafi or Ceausescu treatment.

    It seems exceptionally likely that the regime dies with him in any event, but these protests do appear to be snowballing and the regime is already at its weakest point. I don’t think it’s inconceivable that it collapses.
    Is Khameni popular in Afghanistan? Or is he the wrong sort of Muslim?
    Wrong sort! Iran (Shi'a) was fighting the Taliban (Sunni) long before the West was.
    Thanks; I did wonder but couldn't be bothered to do the research. I knew someone here would know! I don't think there's another significant Sunni state, is there?
    Shi'a. There isn't another significant Shi'a state after Iran. Well, Iraq partly is now. Syria was Alawite dominated, and they're a subbranch of Shi'a, but the new government is Sunni-led. There are lots of Sunni states.
    Iraq is majority Shia, and Azerbaijan is also Shia.
    I did wonder about Azerbaijan as a bolthole. Can't see Iraq being a 'good idea'!
    Does Azerbaijan need the heat?
    You mean there's a Baku-p Plan?
    One of my (indirect) ancestors got married in Baku during the Revolution.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,556

    NEW THREAD

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,133

    Roger said:

    A strange thought..... I have a few issues with Starmer and Labour to do with authoritarianism and lack of principles but compared to their only realistic opponents- Badenoch's Tories and Farage's fascists- there's no comparison.......

    .......But today I went to see the film 'Hamnet' which is universally liked and I loathed it. I'm a Shakespeare fan and pretty well know Hamlet off by heart. I also like slow paced thoughtful films so all round this film could have been made for me

    ...And then a strange thought hit me: Maybe its not Badenoch and Farage....Maybe it's me!

    On the other hand Roger you could be right and everyone else could be wrong.

    I remember reading a comparison in the Telegraph about the lives of Glenn Frey and David Bowie who both died around the time of Christmas 2016. It was an article contrasting the author's view that Frey was a talentless fraud whilst Bowie was a musical genius. Save for Rebel, Rebel I hate most of Bowie's output and I saw Bowie as a pretentious dick (although giving All the Young Dudes to Mott the Hoople was a wonderful act of generosity) and I see the Eagles' legacy as far more valuable. So on that score I am in a minority of one. But of course I am right and they are all wrong.
    I'm with you on the Eagles. Only ever bought one Bowie record - the single Sorrow (the B-side being Jacque Brel's "Amsterdam").
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,340
    edited January 9

    Roger said:

    A strange thought..... I have a few issues with Starmer and Labour to do with authoritarianism and lack of principles but compared to their only realistic opponents- Badenoch's Tories and Farage's fascists- there's no comparison.......

    .......But today I went to see the film 'Hamnet' which is universally liked and I loathed it. I'm a Shakespeare fan and pretty well know Hamlet off by heart. I also like slow paced thoughtful films so all round this film could have been made for me

    ...And then a strange thought hit me: Maybe its not Badenoch and Farage....Maybe it's me!

    On the other hand Roger you could be right and everyone else could be wrong.

    I remember reading a comparison in the Telegraph about the lives of Glenn Frey and David Bowie who both died around the time of Christmas 2016. It was an article contrasting the author's view that Frey was a talentless fraud whilst Bowie was a musical genius. Save for Rebel, Rebel I hate most of Bowie's output and I saw Bowie as a pretentious dick (although giving All the Young Dudes to Mott the Hoople was a wonderful act of generosity) and I see the Eagles' legacy as far more valuable. So on that score I am in a minority of one. But of course I am right and they are all wrong.
    I'm with you on the Eagles. Only ever bought one Bowie record - the single Sorrow (the B-side being Jacque Brel's "Amsterdam").
    I do apologise it was a Guardian article from Jan 20th 2016 entitled "You mourned David Bowie, but you mock Glenn Frey. Why?" by Everett True.

    I don't credit Bowie with Sorrow which is a sublime song, but by the McCoys (who also sang Hang on Sloppy) and was covered by the Merseys before the Thin White Twat. I'll give him credit for Lulu's The Man Who Sold the World. But that is about it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,636
    Roger said:

    A strange thought..... I have a few issues with Starmer and Labour to do with authoritarianism and lack of principles but compared to their only realistic opponents- Badenoch's Tories and Farage's fascists- there's no comparison.......

    .......But today I went to see the film 'Hamnet' which is universally liked and I loathed it. I'm a Shakespeare fan and pretty well know Hamlet off by heart. I also like slow paced thoughtful films so all round this film could have been made for me

    ...And then a strange thought hit me: Maybe its not Badenoch and Farage....Maybe it's me!

    :) I loved the film, particularly the cinematography. You could almost smell the streets and the damp rooms. The ambient sounds and the peasant faces. The child births were a bit much though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,166
    Last few days of our Mexican adventure and we're on Isla Holbox. I think it's one of the most beautiful beach islands I've ever been to but it's also got what I think are the most mosquitoes I've ever seen.

    It's also an abject lesson in not having any control over planning. The infrastructure on the island is basically nil and all the hotels just fend for themselves. If you go to the wrong beaches at the wrong time of day there is a very strong stench of sewage and the water has a worrying shade of brown at times. I think with better planning and infrastructure investment this could be an amazing place to visit. Even with the mosquitoes.
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