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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour needs to take 79 of these seats to secure a majority

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  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    Interesting. Very interesting. I see those two PBers as pretty close to the Yellow grassroots so it does look as if the Liberals now see no chance of redemption.

    Yes indeed

    I'd say that their lack of confidence makes the 8/11 Clegg to be gone by Jan 1st 2016 an even better bet
    A very tidy bet for the serious investor @Isam. I don't like tying my money up however, preferring instead to shovel it all on an out of form golfer and lose it overnight in the Masters crapshoot.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Recent poll (forget which it was) gave a different shift. And if you keep equating Mr Salmond = SNP = Independence side you are gong to make as big a mistake as it would be to equate Mr Cameron with the unionist side.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    Interesting. Very interesting. I see those two PBers as pretty close to the Yellow grassroots so it does look as if the Liberals now see no chance of redemption.

    Yes indeed

    I'd say that their lack of confidence makes the 8/11 Clegg to be gone by Jan 1st 2016 an even better bet
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    Interesting. Very interesting. I see those two PBers as pretty close to the Yellow grassroots so it does look as if the Liberals now see no chance of redemption.

    Yes indeed

    I'd say that their lack of confidence makes the 8/11 Clegg to be gone by Jan 1st 2016 an even better bet
    No indeed not . I am quite choosy who I place my bests with on here . It is much more a reflection of my opinion of you that I will not place bets with you though I was happy to place several with tim . Mike has also explained to you in great detail why he will not place that particular bet with you .
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Carnyx said:

    Someone doesn't have her head in the sand about the Labour problem in Scotland:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/sturgeon-urges-all-labour-voters-to-back-independence.23937187

    "In her speech to the SNP spring conference in Aberdeen, she will argue independence would "rejuvenate" a Labour Party "no longer dancing to Westminster's tune".

    Her comments, which are likely to rile Scots Labour leader Johann Lamont, will be accompanied by an announcement of extra Scottish Government funding for food banks, calculated to highlight the impact of the UK Government's unpopular welfare reforms.

    Ms Sturgeon, the "Yes minister" responsible for referendum strategy, will target Labour voters as polls show they are more sympathetic to independence than Conservative or LibDems' supporters, and are prominent among the one million or so Scots who remain undecided about the referendum.

    She will say: "To every Labour voter in the country I say this - the Yes campaign is not asking you to change your party, instead it offers you the chance to get your party back.

    "Independence will not mean the end of Labour but it might mean a rejuvenated Labour Party, a Labour Party free to make its own decisions, a Labour Party no longer dancing to Westminster's tune.

    "For every voter with Labour in their heart, the message is clear: don't vote No to stop the SNP, vote Yes to reclaim the Labour Party.""

    Not just rattling Ms Lamont's cage, but prodding her in the ribs as well ...

    stultifyingly dumb. Labour is a UK national party, if they vote for Indy they become the Scottish Socialist party.

    Too stupid strikes again.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

    Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.
    Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

    Another shifty trougher.
    No he didn't!

    Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally
    I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?
    I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

    I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

    If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,
    That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

    If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.
    Well lets agree that all parties have been guilty of over claiming expenses, ok

    Labour, Conservatives & Lib Dem MP's have taken from the British taxpayer for their own personal wealth (to buy 2nd homes/clear moats etc)

    UKIP have taken from a European pot to fund the party and destroy the thing they have been elected to destroy

    We shall see what the public thinks is worse
    Just as a factual point, Douglas Hogg never claimed money to clear his moat.
    Apols

    Ok, to clear Wisteria from Chimneys
    Not quite - It was to mend a leaky roof, put some outside lights on the property for security and mend some that were broken.

    I'd also appreciate your advice - The Veritas party lead by Therese Muchewicz now has 29 twitter followers – what are the chances of them taking more seats than UKIP? ; )
    Oh on that 2nd point I have no idea.. more than UKIP I suppose?

    Here's an interesting piece on David Cameron's expenses... if he fires Bone having defended Miller I might put money on him being gone before the end of 2014

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/04/why-david-cameron-isnt-being-hard-on-maria-miller.html
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Neil said:

    The Veritas party lead by Therese Muchewicz now has 29 twitter followers

    Like those Japanese soldiers in the jungle who havent been told their Emperor has surrendered. Maybe RKS could be prevailed upon to convince them to give up?
    LOL - perhaps they should rebrand to that of the Norwegian blue parrot party.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    I am quite choosy who I place my bests with on here .

    Mark, I'm now quite touched that you accepted my Brighton Pavilion bet, I didnt think it was such an honour ;)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

    Judge for yourself if it was successful

    Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

    Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.
    Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

    Another shifty trougher.
    No he didn't!

    Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally
    So misuse of public funds for party political purposes.

    Trougher!
    I see little difference between that and Councillors giving 10% of 'expenses' to their party.
    Or Charles and his chums handing over six figure sums
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BobaFett said:

    AndyJS said:

    Salmond is more popular with men in Scotland for the same reason that Farage is more popular with men in England. They both want to do something slightly risky and daring: men like that sort of thing, women are more risk-averse and prefer stability, generally speaking. A certain type of man likes to risk everything for the chance of glory and honour, even if it might all end disastrously. That's why it's likely young men will be the biggest supporters of Scottish independence in the referendum.

    Are you saying independence is the choice of the testosterone fuelled bloke Andy? ;-)

    Yes. Would you categorise that as a controversial point of view?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    stultifyingly dumb. Labour is a UK national party, if they vote for Indy they become the Scottish Socialist party.

    Too stupid strikes again.

    Not sure about that - it's aimed at Scottish Labour voters, not at the Scottish Labour Party. I'd have thought it was quite a smart line.
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    If LD's are wiped out in EU elections (which Brussels party thinks is almost certain), moves will be made against Clegg. I'm not sure if he will be *actually* deposed, but very public talks of "this man cannot lead us into the GE" are being discussed in some quarters.

    The debates are now seen as suicidal.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    Interesting. Very interesting. I see those two PBers as pretty close to the Yellow grassroots so it does look as if the Liberals now see no chance of redemption.

    Yes indeed

    I'd say that their lack of confidence makes the 8/11 Clegg to be gone by Jan 1st 2016 an even better bet
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    Interesting. Very interesting. I see those two PBers as pretty close to the Yellow grassroots so it does look as if the Liberals now see no chance of redemption.

    Yes indeed

    I'd say that their lack of confidence makes the 8/11 Clegg to be gone by Jan 1st 2016 an even better bet
    No indeed not . I am quite choosy who I place my bests with on here . It is much more a reflection of my opinion of you that I will not place bets with you though I was happy to place several with tim . Mike has also explained to you in great detail why he will not place that particular bet with you .
    Oh I want to take that money off you so badly as well!

    Never mind

    Mike's running scared, he knows exactly who I am, his son has bet with me, lost, and I haven't asked for the money...

    These aren't just yellow bellies.. these are MS yellow bellies!

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited April 2014

    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.
    So you think that the cabinet is all male even when a third are by all evidence female? [edited to clarify] I'd like to see what you think isn't homoerotic!



  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    You would have thought Farage, with 116.3K Twitter followers, would have encouraged his supporters to follow the UKIP candidate for Basingstoke, Alan Stone, who currently only has 23:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/alan_h_stone
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    stultifyingly dumb. Labour is a UK national party, if they vote for Indy they become the Scottish Socialist party.

    Too stupid strikes again.

    Not sure about that - it's aimed at Scottish Labour voters, not at the Scottish Labour Party. I'd have thought it was quite a smart line.
    Smart only in the sense of duping idiots. The whole shenanigans of promising everyone what they want to hear and hang the consequences is a problem in the making. Salmond has overpromised by a country mile and is incapable of delivering.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Carnyx said:

    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.
    With a third of the cabinet apparently [edit: intended sarcastically] female? I'd like to see what you think isn't homoerotic!



    Nicola Sturgeon is a bloke.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

    Judge for yourself if it was successful

    Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

    Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.
    Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

    Another shifty trougher.
    No he didn't!

    Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally
    Theft is theft even if you are Robin Hood and give the proceeds to the poor let alone finance your gang's HQ with them .
    As with all these smears and allegations, all they do is reinforce other party diehards views, while UKIP inclined voters see past it all.
    As with all these truths even when confessed to by Farage , UKIP inclined voters will ignore them or justify them in their minds .
    As a LD voter, are you outraged to learn that LD MPs rent office space from their local LD Party?

    http://order-order.com/2013/11/14/clegg-24-other-libdems-are-re-renting/
    Provided that it is on a fully arms-length basis and at a freely negotiated market rent I wouldnt have an issue in theory.

    In practice, however, shared site agreements are notoriously easy to abuse, so I think it is easier to have a bright line test and simply ban the arrangement
    Policing a ban would be hard to do.

    http://order-order.com/2013/06/21/bergers-trade-union-lobbyist-merry-go-round/

    If the costs are receipted and published, I think that's best long term solution.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Smart only in the sense of duping idiots. The whole shenanigans of promising everyone what they want to hear and hang the consequences is a problem in the making. Salmond has overpromised by a country mile and is incapable of delivering.

    Yes, well that is true.

    Still, give him his due; people say that the positive case for the union hasn't been made, but he's been doing an excellent job pointing out, in a very positive way, the advantages of a shared currency, shared monarchy, shared institutions, no border controls, integrated economy, and a financial sector which can service the whole UK.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Smart only in the sense of duping idiots. The whole shenanigans of promising everyone what they want to hear and hang the consequences is a problem in the making. Salmond has overpromised by a country mile and is incapable of delivering.

    Yes, well that is true.

    Still, give him his due; people say that the positive case for the union hasn't been made, but he's been doing an excellent job pointing out, in a very positive way, the advantages of a shared currency, shared monarchy, shared institutions, no border controls, integrated economy, and a financial sector which can service the whole UK.
    LOL hadn't looked at it that way Richard ;-)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Daniel said:

    If LD's are wiped out in EU elections (which Brussels party thinks is almost certain), moves will be made against Clegg. I'm not sure if he will be *actually* deposed, but very public talks of "this man cannot lead us into the GE" are being discussed in some quarters.

    The debates are now seen as suicidal.

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited April 2014

    Daniel said:

    If LD's are wiped out in EU elections (which Brussels party thinks is almost certain), moves will be made against Clegg. I'm not sure if he will be *actually* deposed, but very public talks of "this man cannot lead us into the GE" are being discussed in some quarters.

    The debates are now seen as suicidal.

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    The maths makes a literal wipeout pretty unlikely in my mind, will happily offer odds that they are wiped out if anyone is interested.

    EDIT: Not sure I can beat Shadsy's odds here, I will confess.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

    Judge for yourself if it was successful

    Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

    Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.
    Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

    Another shifty trougher.
    No he didn't!

    Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally
    So misuse of public funds for party political purposes.

    Trougher!
    I see little difference between that and Councillors giving 10% of 'expenses' to their party.
    Or Charles and his chums handing over six figure sums
    Prince Charles? - peronally I have no qualms with private individual donating to political parties of their choice - isn't there a cap on donations not exceeding 5 figures?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    stultifyingly dumb. Labour is a UK national party, if they vote for Indy they become the Scottish Socialist party.

    Too stupid strikes again.

    Not sure about that - it's aimed at Scottish Labour voters, not at the Scottish Labour Party. I'd have thought it was quite a smart line.
    Undoubtedly aimed at voters. But it would also put pressure on the Labour Party through its low-level activists, and exactly at the incipient fractures in the Labour Party in Scotland - between the hierarchy who are desperate to keep their London links and those who are actual and potential members of Labour for Indy, and again between the hierarchy who are happy to get into bed with Tories, and those who would rather catch a dose of crabs.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @Carnyx - Yes, that makes sense.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:

    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.
    With a third of the cabinet apparently [edit: intended sarcastically] female? I'd like to see what you think isn't homoerotic!



    Nicola Sturgeon is a bloke.
    Admittedly I wasn't too clear. But remind me never to invite you to go on a blind date ...

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Danny565 said:

    Quincel said:

    Current LAB prices in their Scottish target seats:

    Dundee East (SNP) 11/4 (FAV = SNP 1/4)
    East Dunbartonshire (LD) 1/2 FAV
    Argyll & Bute (LD) 2/1 (FAV = SNP 7/4)
    Edinburgh West (LD) 4/5 FAV
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 9/4 (FAV = Con 2/5)
    Western Isles (SNP): no prices yet
    Gordon (LD) 7/2 (Joint FAV = SNP and LD both on 11/8)
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (LD) 3/1 (FAV = LD 2/5)
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD) 7/2 (FAV = LD 1/2)

    So, LAB are odds-on FAV in two Lib Dem seats. Otherwise, it is looking like an uphill job in those other target seats.

    LDs are surely too short in loads of those? They're polling 6-8% in Scottish Westminster polls right now, how can they be favourites in more than one or two seats if that could be their vote share across Scotland? Money to be made betting against them in all the ones they lead, surely?

    EDIT: OK, now polling quite as low as I though. But my point still stands.
    The Scottish Lib Dems are safe in two Scottish seats:

    a) Orkney & Shetland (the Scottish Secretary Carmichael)
    b) Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charlie Kennedy)

    Otherwise it is smelly breeks time all round for SLD MPs and the new SLD PPCs where the sitting MP is retiring.

    I think that the Lib Dems have been priced laughably short by Shadsy in most of their Scottish seats. He has already been forced to lengthen several of them. The pickings are rich for early birds.

    Who do you think will take Inverness? The Highlands have been heavily trending away from Labour in recent times, which is why I don't give them any chance at all of taking Caithness or Argyll & Bute despite them being close-ish, but I've been thinking about Inverness purely because they held that seat in the fairly recent past which might mean they have slightly more of a "base" there.
    I am very familiar with Inverness, and I would certainly not write off Labour in Inverness itself: they have some good personnel and they know how to get their vote out. However, they are next to non-existent in vast swathes of the constituency. The SNP vote is more evenly spread throughout the entire geographic area.

    If pushed I would have this down as SNP FAV with LAB breathing down our necks. Danny Alexander will be fighting it out for 3rd place with his Tory chums.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

    Judge for yourself if it was successful

    Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

    Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.
    Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

    Another shifty trougher.
    No he didn't!

    Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally
    So misuse of public funds for party political purposes.

    Trougher!
    I see little difference between that and Councillors giving 10% of 'expenses' to their party.
    Or Charles and his chums handing over six figure sums
    what I do with my taxed income, none of which comes from public funds, is entirely up to me. As it happenes, I don't donate to the Tories any more, and the maximum I ever gave was only 6 figures if you include the pence as well...
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014
    Carnyx said:

    Someone doesn't have her head in the sand about the Labour problem in Scotland:

    Carnyx, you don't seriously expect the PB tories and comedy bluenoses to have a clue about the campaign do you?

    How out of touch do they have to be not to realise that being associated with the tories is toxic for SLAB in scotland.

    For that matter how many of them remember that scottish labour and the the unionist friendly papers were very quick to highlight the gender gap in the polls when SLAB were ahead by double figures before the 2011 election? Roughly as many as remember just how quickly they dropped that line of attack when it all started going pear-shaped. It was their favourite crutch stat until the polls narrowed and then reversed before the landslide. They are simply incapable of learning from past mistakes.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Carnyx said:

    stultifyingly dumb. Labour is a UK national party, if they vote for Indy they become the Scottish Socialist party.

    Too stupid strikes again.

    Not sure about that - it's aimed at Scottish Labour voters, not at the Scottish Labour Party. I'd have thought it was quite a smart line.
    Undoubtedly aimed at voters. But it would also put pressure on the Labour Party through its low-level activists, and exactly at the incipient fractures in the Labour Party in Scotland - between the hierarchy who are desperate to keep their London links and those who are actual and potential members of Labour for Indy, and again between the hierarchy who are happy to get into bed with Tories, and those who would rather catch a dose of crabs.

    I mean really Mr Carnyx what is this Tories bollocks ? Who are these mystical Bond villains ? Even someone like myself who Richard will happily vouch has a regular go at SE complacency will tell you the kind of evil masterminds you fantasise about don't exist. Most people in the South of Britain are decent hardworking people with ridiculously high mortgages who don't have the time or inclination to go around telling others what to do. It seems to me most of your villains are in your head. Try getting out more.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If no one else has mentioned it, @election_data is a great source of election information and well worth following on twitter.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    Interesting. Very interesting. I see those two PBers as pretty close to the Yellow grassroots so it does look as if the Liberals now see no chance of redemption.

    Yes indeed

    I'd say that their lack of confidence makes the 8/11 Clegg to be gone by Jan 1st 2016 an even better bet
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    Interesting. Very interesting. I see those two PBers as pretty close to the Yellow grassroots so it does look as if the Liberals now see no chance of redemption.

    Yes indeed

    I'd say that their lack of confidence makes the 8/11 Clegg to be gone by Jan 1st 2016 an even better bet
    No indeed not . I am quite choosy who I place my bests with on here . It is much more a reflection of my opinion of you that I will not place bets with you though I was happy to place several with tim . Mike has also explained to you in great detail why he will not place that particular bet with you .
    Do you bet on Betfair?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Quincel said:

    Daniel said:

    If LD's are wiped out in EU elections (which Brussels party thinks is almost certain), moves will be made against Clegg. I'm not sure if he will be *actually* deposed, but very public talks of "this man cannot lead us into the GE" are being discussed in some quarters.

    The debates are now seen as suicidal.

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    The maths makes a literal wipeout pretty unlikely in my mind, will happily offer odds that they are wiped out if anyone is interested.

    EDIT: Not sure I can beat Shadsy's odds here, I will confess.
    A wipeout would be fun though. :-)

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    AndyJS said:

    BobaFett said:

    AndyJS said:

    Salmond is more popular with men in Scotland for the same reason that Farage is more popular with men in England. They both want to do something slightly risky and daring: men like that sort of thing, women are more risk-averse and prefer stability, generally speaking. A certain type of man likes to risk everything for the chance of glory and honour, even if it might all end disastrously. That's why it's likely young men will be the biggest supporters of Scottish independence in the referendum.

    Are you saying independence is the choice of the testosterone fuelled bloke Andy? ;-)

    Yes. Would you categorise that as a controversial point of view?
    Not really. I just thought it was an interesting point of view.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Has anyone mentioned the Populus most-noticed poll this week?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bk8rClxCQAA9xCQ.jpg

    Four times as many people picked up on the Maria Miller expenses story as picked up last week on the Clegg-Farage debate. More people noticed the royal visit to New Zealand this week than noticed the first Clegg-Farage debate two weeks ago.

    Note also the impact of Oscar Pistorius' trial.
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    IMHO? no. Opinion polls have LD's at 9% - would lose all MEPs. UKIP very strong in South East, Greens have pockets of support in some areas. I expect Labour to dominate in London, along with Tories, UKIP and Greens - LD's will get drowned out.

    I cannot see, again my opinion, LD's doing well and gaining enough support to keep any seats.

    But I'm more keen in the local elections; it is a perfect time to analysis just have strongly UKIP do take voters Labour. Council elections are predominately in Labour heartlands this year.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Peter Bone: Tory MP Investigated Over Expenses

    Wellingborough and Rushden MP Peter Bone says he has done nothing wrong as a standards watchdog investigates a claim of £89,185.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1240986/peter-bone-tory-mp-investigated-over-expenses
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    antifrank said:

    Has anyone mentioned the Populus most-noticed poll this week?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bk8rClxCQAA9xCQ.jpg

    Four times as many people picked up on the Maria Miller expenses story as picked up last week on the Clegg-Farage debate. More people noticed the royal visit to New Zealand this week than noticed the first Clegg-Farage debate two weeks ago.

    Note also the impact of Oscar Pistorius' trial.

    Miller has had no effect on the Tory VI, hence not salient. The poor woman has been kicked out for nothing. A dismal episode.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Daniel said:

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    IMHO? no. Opinion polls have LD's at 9% - would lose all MEPs. UKIP very strong in South East, Greens have pockets of support in some areas. I expect Labour to dominate in London, along with Tories, UKIP and Greens - LD's will get drowned out.

    I cannot see, again my opinion, LD's doing well and gaining enough support to keep any seats.

    But I'm more keen in the local elections; it is a perfect time to analysis just have strongly UKIP do take voters Labour. Council elections are predominately in Labour heartlands this year.
    I just want Andrew Duff to lose his seat.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Mick_Pork said:

    Peter Bone: Tory MP Investigated Over Expenses

    Wellingborough and Rushden MP Peter Bone says he has done nothing wrong as a standards watchdog investigates a claim of £89,185.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1240986/peter-bone-tory-mp-investigated-over-expenses

    He should be investigated for telling the same sorry old Mrs Bone 'joke' over and over again.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Helena Bonham-Carter protests outside parliament – bloody luvvies at it again..!

    http://news.sky.com/story/1241045/suffragette-cast-make-history-at-parliament
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:

    stultifyingly dumb. Labour is a UK national party, if they vote for Indy they become the Scottish Socialist party.

    Too stupid strikes again.

    Not sure about that - it's aimed at Scottish Labour voters, not at the Scottish Labour Party. I'd have thought it was quite a smart line.
    Undoubtedly aimed at voters. But it would also put pressure on the Labour Party through its low-level activists, and exactly at the incipient fractures in the Labour Party in Scotland - between the hierarchy who are desperate to keep their London links and those who are actual and potential members of Labour for Indy, and again between the hierarchy who are happy to get into bed with Tories, and those who would rather catch a dose of crabs.

    I mean really Mr Carnyx what is this Tories bollocks ? Who are these mystical Bond villains ? Even someone like myself who Richard will happily vouch has a regular go at SE complacency will tell you the kind of evil masterminds you fantasise about don't exist. Most people in the South of Britain are decent hardworking people with ridiculously high mortgages who don't have the time or inclination to go around telling others what to do. It seems to me most of your villains are in your head. Try getting out more.
    All I do is mention Tories once! I wasn't even thinking of the people south of the border (I do often criticise Westminster, but that is quite different). The fact is they exist all right. Y9u know, the blokes in blue rosettes. Actually there are quite a few in Scotland as I know very well and often comment (much more than the FPTP system suggests). But I was thinking - in all seriousness - of the Labour voter up here. To such voters, they are, rightly or wrongly, less popular than the aforesaid form of pediculosis - it's a fact of life, so to speak and one that is absolutely fundamental to the apparent paralysis of Labour in the indy debate.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    BobaFett said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Peter Bone: Tory MP Investigated Over Expenses

    Wellingborough and Rushden MP Peter Bone says he has done nothing wrong as a standards watchdog investigates a claim of £89,185.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1240986/peter-bone-tory-mp-investigated-over-expenses

    He should be investigated for telling the same sorry old Mrs Bone 'joke' over and over again.
    On that basis most of PB would be under inestigation. Crossover anyone ?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    antifrank said:

    If no one else has mentioned it, @election_data is a great source of election information and well worth following on twitter.

    Amen, brilliant stuff coming out of him/her.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Peter Bone: Tory MP Investigated Over Expenses

    Wellingborough and Rushden MP Peter Bone says he has done nothing wrong as a standards watchdog investigates a claim of £89,185.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1240986/peter-bone-tory-mp-investigated-over-expenses

    He should be investigated for telling the same sorry old Mrs Bone 'joke' over and over again.
    On that basis most of PB would be under inestigation. Crossover anyone ?
    JackW would be locked up.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,147
    Carnyx said:


    All I do is mention Tories once! I wasn't even thinking of the people south of the border (I do often criticise Westminster, but that is quite different). The fact is they exist all right. Y9u know, the blokes in blue rosettes. Actually there are quite a few in Scotland as I know very well and often comment (much more than the FPTP system suggests). But I was thinking - in all seriousness - of the Labour voter up here. To such voters, they are, rightly or wrongly, less popular than the aforesaid form of pediculosis - it's a fact of life, so to speak and one that is absolutely fundamental to the apparent paralysis of Labour in the indy debate.

    Don't worry Carnyx, to certain PBers the Nats are to blame for everything, even SLab voters not wanting to touch touch the Tories with a shi**y stick.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited April 2014
    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    Has anyone mentioned the Populus most-noticed poll this week?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bk8rClxCQAA9xCQ.jpg

    Four times as many people picked up on the Maria Miller expenses story as picked up last week on the Clegg-Farage debate. More people noticed the royal visit to New Zealand this week than noticed the first Clegg-Farage debate two weeks ago.

    Note also the impact of Oscar Pistorius' trial.

    Miller has had no effect on the Tory VI, hence not salient. The poor woman has been kicked out for nothing. A dismal episode.
    In all seriousness, not necessarily for nothing: consider if she had stayed.

    Actually I think the press'll find someone else to attack - plenty of potential targets in Parliament if what is said here was correct.

    [edit: deleted what turns out to be an unfortunate double entendre in the light of latest news]

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    stultifyingly dumb. Labour is a UK national party, if they vote for Indy they become the Scottish Socialist party.

    Too stupid strikes again.

    Not sure about that - it's aimed at Scottish Labour voters, not at the Scottish Labour Party. I'd have thought it was quite a smart line.
    Undoubtedly aimed at voters. But it would also put pressure on the Labour Party through its low-level activists, and exactly at the incipient fractures in the Labour Party in Scotland - between the hierarchy who are desperate to keep their London links and those who are actual and potential members of Labour for Indy, and again between the hierarchy who are happy to get into bed with Tories, and those who would rather catch a dose of crabs.

    I mean really Mr Carnyx what is this Tories bollocks ? Who are these mystical Bond villains ? Even someone like myself who Richard will happily vouch has a regular go at SE complacency will tell you the kind of evil masterminds you fantasise about don't exist. Most people in the South of Britain are decent hardworking people with ridiculously high mortgages who don't have the time or inclination to go around telling others what to do. It seems to me most of your villains are in your head. Try getting out more.
    All I do is mention Tories once! I wasn't even thinking of the people south of the border (I do often criticise Westminster, but that is quite different). The fact is they exist all right. Y9u know, the blokes in blue rosettes. Actually there are quite a few in Scotland as I know very well and often comment (much more than the FPTP system suggests). But I was thinking - in all seriousness - of the Labour voter up here. To such voters, they are, rightly or wrongly, less popular than the aforesaid form of pediculosis - it's a fact of life, so to speak and one that is absolutely fundamental to the apparent paralysis of Labour in the indy debate.
    It's rather the accumulation of nat wisdom every time they get under pressure it's toories is the justification. So is what you're saying that you think 1 in 6 Scots are pariahs ? Are you saying people on this board like DavidL or Easterross or Fitalass are somehow evil or out to do you ill ?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Daniel said:

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    IMHO? no. Opinion polls have LD's at 9% - would lose all MEPs. UKIP very strong in South East, Greens have pockets of support in some areas. I expect Labour to dominate in London, along with Tories, UKIP and Greens - LD's will get drowned out.

    I cannot see, again my opinion, LD's doing well and gaining enough support to keep any seats.

    But I'm more keen in the local elections; it is a perfect time to analysis just have strongly UKIP do take voters Labour. Council elections are predominately in Labour heartlands this year.
    All the Euro opinion polls even those with LD's at 9% show they will keep several seats because the decline is not uniform . London is pretty consistently the area with the highest LD % .
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Peter Bone: Tory MP Investigated Over Expenses

    Wellingborough and Rushden MP Peter Bone says he has done nothing wrong as a standards watchdog investigates a claim of £89,185.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1240986/peter-bone-tory-mp-investigated-over-expenses

    He should be investigated for telling the same sorry old Mrs Bone 'joke' over and over again.
    I'm sure the public will be chuckling away right now along with Cammie.
    Maybe Bone's £90,000 will be deemed chickenfeed and of no consequence too.
    Like Miller wasn't by the public and even 82% of tory members.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Cochrane's wife is just about as stupid and biased as him. Typical unionist trying to pin it on one person rather than the truth. Fodder for a serial liar like Monica. If women have not made their mind up yet I doubt it is all down to Alex Salmond. Nothing to add to the debate so kick the man as hard as you can. You unionist drones can only wish you had such a colossus in your team instead of the wall to wall donkeys.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited April 2014

    Carnyx said:


    All I do is mention Tories once! I wasn't even thinking of the people south of the border (I do often criticise Westminster, but that is quite different). The fact is they exist all right. Y9u know, the blokes in blue rosettes. Actually there are quite a few in Scotland as I know very well and often comment (much more than the FPTP system suggests). But I was thinking - in all seriousness - of the Labour voter up here. To such voters, they are, rightly or wrongly, less popular than the aforesaid form of pediculosis - it's a fact of life, so to speak and one that is absolutely fundamental to the apparent paralysis of Labour in the indy debate.

    Don't worry Carnyx, to certain PBers the Nats are to blame for everything, even SLab voters not wanting to touch touch the Tories with a shi**y stick.
    What do you think of the SNP weasels now applauding Margo MacDonald's memory ?
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/2701077.stm
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    stultifyingly dumb. Labour is a UK national party, if they vote for Indy they become the Scottish Socialist party.

    Too stupid strikes again.

    Not sure about that - it's aimed at Scottish Labour voters, not at the Scottish Labour Party. I'd have thought it was quite a smart line.
    Undoubtedly aimed at voters. But it would also put pressure on the Labour Party through its low-level activists, and exactly at the incipient fractures in the Labour Party in Scotland - between the hierarchy who are desperate to keep their London links and those who are actual and potential members of Labour for Indy, and again between the hierarchy who are happy to get into bed with Tories, and those who would rather catch a dose of crabs.

    I mean really Mr Carnyx what is this Tories bollocks ? Who are these mystical Bond villains ? Even someone like myself who Richard will happily vouch has a regular go at SE complacency will tell you the kind of evil masterminds you fantasise about don't exist. Most people in the South of Britain are decent hardworking people with ridiculously high mortgages who don't have the time or inclination to go around telling others what to do. It seems to me most of your villains are in your head. Try getting out more.
    All I do is mention Tories once!
    Carnyx there is crystal clear polling backing that toxicity up even if we were all somehow witless and blind enough to ignore what happened to the lib dems in scotland after their tory love in.

    More pandas than scottish tory MPs. They REALLY still don't get it???


    LOL
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    BobaFett said:

    AndyJS said:

    Salmond is more popular with men in Scotland for the same reason that Farage is more popular with men in England. They both want to do something slightly risky and daring: men like that sort of thing, women are more risk-averse and prefer stability, generally speaking. A certain type of man likes to risk everything for the chance of glory and honour, even if it might all end disastrously. That's why it's likely young men will be the biggest supporters of Scottish independence in the referendum.

    Are you saying independence is the choice of the testosterone fuelled bloke Andy? ;-)

    He is just listening to two fannies who would not know the answer if it slapped them in the face.
    It is not a vote on Salmond or the UK despite what the turnips on here believe. It is actually about Scotland and the YES campaign. The saddo losers who have no clue can only parrot that Salmond has a problem, they wish.
  • Helena Bonham-Carter protests outside parliament – bloody luvvies at it again..!

    The odds on that film actually showing the enormous damage the WSPU did to the cause of female suffrage are very slim. An anachronistic hagiography is likely.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2014
    antifrank said:

    Has anyone mentioned the Populus most-noticed poll this week?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bk8rClxCQAA9xCQ.jpg

    Four times as many people picked up on the Maria Miller expenses story as picked up last week on the Clegg-Farage debate. More people noticed the royal visit to New Zealand this week than noticed the first Clegg-Farage debate two weeks ago.

    Note also the impact of Oscar Pistorius' trial.

    I like you Antifrank, but why are you spinning this line about the Clegg-Farage debate so persistently?

    Another way of interpreting those figures would be to say five times more people noticed the second debate than Kate and Wills NZ visit, but no one can be bothered to do that

    The fact that the debate is still in the top ten this week, having happened last week proves you wrong doesn't it? As does the poll bounce for UKIP and the slump of the nations 4th party
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Helena Bonham-Carter protests outside parliament – bloody luvvies at it again..!

    The odds on that film actually showing the enormous damage the WSPU did to the cause of female suffrage are very slim. An anachronistic hagiography is likely.

    You're late!

    We had this debate a few months ago. It was a Saturday.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.
    Dear Dear Alan, you are losing the plot now as well, there is no hope.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Daniel said:

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    IMHO? no. Opinion polls have LD's at 9% - would lose all MEPs. UKIP very strong in South East, Greens have pockets of support in some areas. I expect Labour to dominate in London, along with Tories, UKIP and Greens - LD's will get drowned out.

    I cannot see, again my opinion, LD's doing well and gaining enough support to keep any seats.

    But I'm more keen in the local elections; it is a perfect time to analysis just have strongly UKIP do take voters Labour. Council elections are predominately in Labour heartlands this year.
    All the Euro opinion polls even those with LD's at 9% show they will keep several seats because the decline is not uniform . London is pretty consistently the area with the highest LD % .
    Ho ho. Mark is pinning his hopes on the sub-samples. What a chump.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    malcolmg said:

    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.
    Dear Dear Alan, you are losing the plot now as well, there is no hope.

    admit it malc there's nothing more you want to do than buy some nice strappy sandals and walk round Ayshire in a tartan skirt.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Labour gained the seat after it had been long held by the Libdems in 1997, and then they lost it, again to the Libdems in 2005. It should be noted that the boundary changes at that time proved extremely favourable to the Libdems in this seat as well as in Gordon and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. The Libdem held Highland/North East seats are an excellent example of why Clegg and his colleagues were determined to find any passing excuse to renege on their Coalition agreement on new boundary changes in this Parliament.
    Danny565 said:

    Quincel said:

    Current LAB prices in their Scottish target seats:

    Dundee East (SNP) 11/4 (FAV = SNP 1/4)
    East Dunbartonshire (LD) 1/2 FAV
    Argyll & Bute (LD) 2/1 (FAV = SNP 7/4)
    Edinburgh West (LD) 4/5 FAV
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 9/4 (FAV = Con 2/5)
    Western Isles (SNP): no prices yet
    Gordon (LD) 7/2 (Joint FAV = SNP and LD both on 11/8)
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (LD) 3/1 (FAV = LD 2/5)
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD) 7/2 (FAV = LD 1/2)

    So, LAB are odds-on FAV in two Lib Dem seats. Otherwise, it is looking like an uphill job in those other target seats.

    LDs are surely too short in loads of those? They're polling 6-8% in Scottish Westminster polls right now, how can they be favourites in more than one or two seats if that could be their vote share across Scotland? Money to be made betting against them in all the ones they lead, surely?

    EDIT: OK, now polling quite as low as I though. But my point still stands.
    The Scottish Lib Dems are safe in two Scottish seats:

    a) Orkney & Shetland (the Scottish Secretary Carmichael)
    b) Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charlie Kennedy)

    Otherwise it is smelly breeks time all round for SLD MPs and the new SLD PPCs where the sitting MP is retiring.

    I think that the Lib Dems have been priced laughably short by Shadsy in most of their Scottish seats. He has already been forced to lengthen several of them. The pickings are rich for early birds.

    Who do you think will take Inverness? The Highlands have been heavily trending away from Labour in recent times, which is why I don't give them any chance at all of taking Caithness or Argyll & Bute despite them being close-ish, but I've been thinking about Inverness purely because they held that seat in the fairly recent past which might mean they have slightly more of a "base" there.
  • I am very familiar with Inverness

    Very sorry to hear that.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour candidates selected to replace retiring MPs


    Aberavon (35.7% majority): Stephen Kinnock (son of, husband of)
    St Helens South (30.6%): Marie Rimmer (veteran local Cllr)
    Lewisham Deptford (30.3%): Vicky Foxcroft (local Cllr since 2010, Unite official)
    Leeds East (27.2%): Richard Burgon (GMB lawyer)
    Coventy North East (27.1%): Colleen Fletcher (veteran local Cllr)
    Greenwich and Woolwich (24.7%): Matthew Pennycook (Greenwich Cllr)
    Aberdeen North (22.2%): Richard Baker (MSP)
    Blackburn (21.7%): Kate Hollern (Blackburn with Darwen council leader)
    Stoke North (20.5%) Ruth Smeeth (Hope not Hate deputy director, 2010 Burton candidate)
    Dulwich and West Norwood (19.4%): Helen Hayes (Southwark Cllr since 2010)
    Bristol South (9.8%): Karin Smyth (officer manager of Bristol West 1997-2005 MP)
    Gower (6.4%): Liz Evans (national officer with the Public and Commercial Services union, from Swansea)
    Southampton Itchen (0.4%): Rowenna Davies (journalist?)
    Hampstead and Kilburn (0.1%): Tulip Siddiq (cabinet member on Camden council)


    Selections coming up: Batley and Spen (8.5%), Sheffield Heeley (14.2%), Ellesmere Port and Neston (9.8%) and Stirling (17.9%): AWS, AWS, Open, AWS
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Mick_Pork said:

    BobaFett said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Peter Bone: Tory MP Investigated Over Expenses

    Wellingborough and Rushden MP Peter Bone says he has done nothing wrong as a standards watchdog investigates a claim of £89,185.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1240986/peter-bone-tory-mp-investigated-over-expenses

    He should be investigated for telling the same sorry old Mrs Bone 'joke' over and over again.
    I'm sure the public will be chuckling away right now along with Cammie.
    Maybe Bone's £90,000 will be deemed chickenfeed and of no consequence too.
    Like Miller wasn't by the public and even 82% of tory members.
    No, she was deemed not guilty by those who tried her.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Has anyone mentioned the Populus most-noticed poll this week?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bk8rClxCQAA9xCQ.jpg

    Four times as many people picked up on the Maria Miller expenses story as picked up last week on the Clegg-Farage debate. More people noticed the royal visit to New Zealand this week than noticed the first Clegg-Farage debate two weeks ago.

    Note also the impact of Oscar Pistorius' trial.

    I like you Antifrank, but why are you spinning this line about the Clegg-Farage debate so persistently?

    Another way of interpreting those figures would be to say five times more people noticed the second debate than Kate and Wills NZ visit, but no one can be bothered to do that

    The fact that the debate is still in the top ten this week, having happened last week proves you wrong doesn't it? As does the poll bounce for UKIP and the slump of the nations 4th party
    That poll bounce for UKIP is so visible in today's Populus poll isn't it?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes as to why women are not being persuaded by the Yes Campaign. I have said before over the years that I have always found Salmond a very cold fish, excuse the pun. :)

    But right now Salmond is the spiv in a suit asking a lot of women to take the biggest gamble of their lives on their future financial security to realise a nationalist dream of independence they don't share. Its going to be interesting to look back and compare Salmond's personal ratings over the term of this Holyrood Parliament after the Indy Ref and nearer the Scottish elections.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Just read about Cam's bible bashing. Religion should be a private matter.
    I always thought he was an atheist actually. Egg-cruciating.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Euro election - Most seats - best prices

    Lab 5/4 (Betfair)
    UKIP 11/8 (PP)
    Con 7/1 (Betfair)
    Grn 150/1 (PP)
    LD 200/1 (Betfair)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Daniel said:

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    IMHO? no. Opinion polls have LD's at 9% - would lose all MEPs. UKIP very strong in South East, Greens have pockets of support in some areas. I expect Labour to dominate in London, along with Tories, UKIP and Greens - LD's will get drowned out.

    I cannot see, again my opinion, LD's doing well and gaining enough support to keep any seats.

    But I'm more keen in the local elections; it is a perfect time to analysis just have strongly UKIP do take voters Labour. Council elections are predominately in Labour heartlands this year.
    All the Euro opinion polls even those with LD's at 9% show they will keep several seats because the decline is not uniform . London is pretty consistently the area with the highest LD % .
    Ho ho. Mark is pinning his hopes on the sub-samples. What a chump.
    Nope you idiot , I am saying that any decline in the LD vote will not be uniform , it will be greater in say the West Midlands and less in say London .
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Just read about Cam's bible bashing. Religion should be a private matter.
    I always thought he was an atheist actually. Egg-cruciating.

    It's as repulsive as Blair and Bush praying together before they launched operation slaughter
    Get religion out of politics.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Helena Bonham-Carter protests outside parliament – bloody luvvies at it again..!

    The odds on that film actually showing the enormous damage the WSPU did to the cause of female suffrage are very slim. An anachronistic hagiography is likely.
    I think you may be right - 'theatreland' do have a habit of airbrushing inconvenient truths.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Has anyone mentioned the Populus most-noticed poll this week?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bk8rClxCQAA9xCQ.jpg

    Four times as many people picked up on the Maria Miller expenses story as picked up last week on the Clegg-Farage debate. More people noticed the royal visit to New Zealand this week than noticed the first Clegg-Farage debate two weeks ago.

    Note also the impact of Oscar Pistorius' trial.

    I like you Antifrank, but why are you spinning this line about the Clegg-Farage debate so persistently?

    Another way of interpreting those figures would be to say five times more people noticed the second debate than Kate and Wills NZ visit, but no one can be bothered to do that

    The fact that the debate is still in the top ten this week, having happened last week proves you wrong doesn't it? As does the poll bounce for UKIP and the slump of the nations 4th party
    That poll bounce for UKIP is so visible in today's Populus poll isn't it?
    Looking at just one poll, which is a clear outlier. Tut tut.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    very simple solution Fitalass, Scottish women go on a sex strike 6 weeks before 18.09.14 to be lifted only on a no vote :-)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Daniel said:

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    IMHO? no. Opinion polls have LD's at 9% - would lose all MEPs. UKIP very strong in South East, Greens have pockets of support in some areas. I expect Labour to dominate in London, along with Tories, UKIP and Greens - LD's will get drowned out.

    I cannot see, again my opinion, LD's doing well and gaining enough support to keep any seats.

    But I'm more keen in the local elections; it is a perfect time to analysis just have strongly UKIP do take voters Labour. Council elections are predominately in Labour heartlands this year.
    All the Euro opinion polls even those with LD's at 9% show they will keep several seats because the decline is not uniform . London is pretty consistently the area with the highest LD % .
    Ho ho. Mark is pinning his hopes on the sub-samples. What a chump.
    Nope you idiot , I am saying that any decline in the LD vote will not be uniform , it will be greater in say the West Midlands and less in say London .
    Fess up you little fibber. You love sub-samples. They make you all moist and excited. You just cannot stand it when someone else gives them the look.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Barnes said:

    "Danny Alexander will be fighting it out for 3rd place with his Tory chums."

    Oh that makes me happy :-)

    I shouldn't be smiling too soon.

    @shadsy isn't given to outbreaks of fervent generosity when marking up political markets. Parsimonious springs to mind.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    BobaFett said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Peter Bone: Tory MP Investigated Over Expenses

    Wellingborough and Rushden MP Peter Bone says he has done nothing wrong as a standards watchdog investigates a claim of £89,185.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1240986/peter-bone-tory-mp-investigated-over-expenses

    He should be investigated for telling the same sorry old Mrs Bone 'joke' over and over again.
    I'm sure the public will be chuckling away right now along with Cammie.
    Maybe Bone's £90,000 will be deemed chickenfeed and of no consequence too.
    Like Miller wasn't by the public and even 82% of tory members.
    No, she was deemed not guilty by those who tried her.
    She wasn't on trial and she didn't go to jail. She simply lost an extremely well paid and sought-after cabinet position, which was VERY quickly filled since it isn't actually that onerous. She finally quit long, long after it was clear she and her expenses were damaging the tories. Tory MPs saying it was costing them votes on the doorstep was the last straw.
    So at least try to get it right.

    You don't perhaps think when even 82% of tory members thought she should go then it should be crystal clear that those who are out of touch on this certainly aren't the public but those bizarrely pretending she is a martyr who did nothing wrong?

    No doubt Bone's £90,000 in expenses will be viewed with equal equanimity by the public since "we're all in this together".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337





    It's rather the accumulation of nat wisdom every time they get under pressure it's toories is the justification. So is what you're saying that you think 1 in 6 Scots are pariahs ? Are you saying people on this board like DavidL or Easterross or Fitalass are somehow evil or out to do you ill ?

    Quite the contrary. If you are talking about people who are of that general political view amongst us and who live and work here, then of course they must be represented.

    I know quite a few Tories locally. It's the UK party and the UK system that became the problem, once the Tories as a UK wide party started to appeal only to elements of the populace and in so doing abandoned Scotland totally de facto (certainly in the sense of their favourite voting system) and created the democratic deficit that led to the policies imposed on Scotland being firstly different from those for which it actually voted, and secondly (which is not quite the same thing) run by a steadily diminishing number of people actually elected there. The way the votes were going, if it hadn't been for the Scottish Parliament you can imagine the reaction to Scotland being run by unelected Tory MPs from outwith the country and by peers. As things are, Mr Mundell fortunately has the LDs to accompany him.

    That is at the root of where we are today, facing an indy referendum. The Tories created that problem (and I can still not quite believe how appallingly they have managed to do that, given the nature of the Tory vote and Scottish society in the 1950s and 1960s). You may not like that but enough people voted for a party which offered that democratic choice, which I must add parenthetically is a damn sight more than the unionist parties did once Labour had tried to tackle the problem with the Parliament (despite Ms Alexander's urging, which was prescient).

    Look how well the Tories do even in the Scottish Parliament as it is now, with its rather different voting system. It is much healthier that Ms Fitalass and Messrs DavidL and Easterross actually get some representation whatever happens in London (which has very seriously shaken me in many ways which I won't go into here). Ms Goldie did a pretty good job of maintaining their point of view during the SNP minority administration and because of that she managed to get some things done her way when Labour were still throwing their toys out of the pram and the LDs didn't have a clue what was going on (though I still think voting for the trams was criminal in terms of opportunities lost as well as the cash). To break the link with London will have a very healthy effect on them and one I can't predict with any confidence.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2014
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Has anyone mentioned the Populus most-noticed poll this week?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bk8rClxCQAA9xCQ.jpg

    Four times as many people picked up on the Maria Miller expenses story as picked up last week on the Clegg-Farage debate. More people noticed the royal visit to New Zealand this week than noticed the first Clegg-Farage debate two weeks ago.

    Note also the impact of Oscar Pistorius' trial.

    I like you Antifrank, but why are you spinning this line about the Clegg-Farage debate so persistently?

    Another way of interpreting those figures would be to say five times more people noticed the second debate than Kate and Wills NZ visit, but no one can be bothered to do that

    The fact that the debate is still in the top ten this week, having happened last week proves you wrong doesn't it? As does the poll bounce for UKIP and the slump of the nations 4th party
    That poll bounce for UKIP is so visible in today's Populus poll isn't it?
    Oh don't! You're better than this!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    JackW said:

    Barnes said:

    "Danny Alexander will be fighting it out for 3rd place with his Tory chums."

    Oh that makes me happy :-)

    I shouldn't be smiling too soon.

    @shadsy isn't given to outbreaks of fervent generosity when marking up political markets. Parsimonious springs to mind.

    Sometimes he is... Evens about Conservatives in Berwick...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    very simple solution Fitalass, Scottish women go on a sex strike 6 weeks before 18.09.14 to be lifted only on a no vote :-)

    Not too sure Mr Fitalass would be too keen on that policy and modesty forfids what Fitalass might think !!

    As for Mrs JackW .... No chance !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Daniel said:

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    IMHO? no. Opinion polls have LD's at 9% - would lose all MEPs. UKIP very strong in South East, Greens have pockets of support in some areas. I expect Labour to dominate in London, along with Tories, UKIP and Greens - LD's will get drowned out.

    I cannot see, again my opinion, LD's doing well and gaining enough support to keep any seats.

    But I'm more keen in the local elections; it is a perfect time to analysis just have strongly UKIP do take voters Labour. Council elections are predominately in Labour heartlands this year.
    All the Euro opinion polls even those with LD's at 9% show they will keep several seats because the decline is not uniform . London is pretty consistently the area with the highest LD % .
    Ho ho. Mark is pinning his hopes on the sub-samples. What a chump.
    Nope you idiot , I am saying that any decline in the LD vote will not be uniform , it will be greater in say the West Midlands and less in say London .
    Fess up you little fibber. You love sub-samples. They make you all moist and excited. You just cannot stand it when someone else gives them the look.
    You were looking in a mirror as you posted that .
    FWIW I have taken up a small wager with Paddypower that LD's will get 2 or more seats in the Euro elections at 5/6 .
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Daniel said:

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    IMHO? no. Opinion polls have LD's at 9% - would lose all MEPs. UKIP very strong in South East, Greens have pockets of support in some areas. I expect Labour to dominate in London, along with Tories, UKIP and Greens - LD's will get drowned out.

    I cannot see, again my opinion, LD's doing well and gaining enough support to keep any seats.

    But I'm more keen in the local elections; it is a perfect time to analysis just have strongly UKIP do take voters Labour. Council elections are predominately in Labour heartlands this year.
    All the Euro opinion polls even those with LD's at 9% show they will keep several seats because the decline is not uniform . London is pretty consistently the area with the highest LD % .
    Ho ho. Mark is pinning his hopes on the sub-samples. What a chump.
    Nope you idiot , I am saying that any decline in the LD vote will not be uniform , it will be greater in say the West Midlands and less in say London .
    Fess up you little fibber. You love sub-samples. They make you all moist and excited. You just cannot stand it when someone else gives them the look.
    Funny folk these Lib Dems. Most people prefer to bet against some one they don't like, makes taking the dough all the sweeter

    But then again, their party has sold them out, so understandable they have no faith in it anymore
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Daniel said:

    Is it certain? Aren't the LD MEPs likely to hang on in London and the South East?

    IMHO? no. Opinion polls have LD's at 9% - would lose all MEPs. UKIP very strong in South East, Greens have pockets of support in some areas. I expect Labour to dominate in London, along with Tories, UKIP and Greens - LD's will get drowned out.

    I cannot see, again my opinion, LD's doing well and gaining enough support to keep any seats.

    But I'm more keen in the local elections; it is a perfect time to analysis just have strongly UKIP do take voters Labour. Council elections are predominately in Labour heartlands this year.
    All the Euro opinion polls even those with LD's at 9% show they will keep several seats because the decline is not uniform . London is pretty consistently the area with the highest LD % .
    Ho ho. Mark is pinning his hopes on the sub-samples. What a chump.
    Nope you idiot , I am saying that any decline in the LD vote will not be uniform , it will be greater in say the West Midlands and less in say London .
    Fess up you little fibber. You love sub-samples. They make you all moist and excited. You just cannot stand it when someone else gives them the look.
    Stuart / Mark - this flirting has to stop. Get a room!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.
    Dear Dear Alan, you are losing the plot now as well, there is no hope.

    admit it malc there's nothing more you want to do than buy some nice strappy sandals and walk round Ayshire in a tartan skirt.
    LOL, I like the Lederhosen but it would be suicide walking about Ayrshire in them , would have to be Germany and bonus would be the beer. Happy with a special skirt but does not go with sandals, you need at least a nice pair of brogues.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    malcolmg said:

    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.
    Dear Dear Alan, you are losing the plot now as well, there is no hope.

    admit it malc there's nothing more you want to do than buy some nice strappy sandals and walk round Ayshire in a tartan skirt.
    Alan, have you seen the Highland regiment uniforms? For instance, those in the regimental museum in Stirling Castle? The sporrans are so huge and hairy there is absolutely no doubt of the gender it is intended to convey. None of those Spartan comrades pulling each others' hairs out with tweezers before a nice supper of blood soup or whatever it was they ate.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    fitalass said:

    That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes as to why women are not being persuaded by the Yes Campaign.

    Your chums in SLAB thought the exact same thing months out from the 2011 scottish election. How did that turn out again?

    As accurate as your prediction that Annabel Goldie was safe mere hours before she quit.

    LOL

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,147
    edited April 2014
    fitalass said:

    That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes as to why women are not being persuaded by the Yes Campaign. I have said before over the years that I have always found Salmond a very cold fish, excuse the pun. :)

    But right now Salmond is the spiv in a suit asking a lot of women to take the biggest gamble of their lives on their future financial security to realise a nationalist dream of independence they don't share. Its going to be interesting to look back and compare Salmond's personal ratings over the term of this Holyrood Parliament after the Indy Ref and nearer the Scottish elections.

    'That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes' (trans. from Fitalassian) - 'that article precisely reflects all my personal prejudices'.

    Ipsos satisfaction ratings Sep 2013 - Women

    Salmond -4 (DK 14%)
    Davidson +3 (DK 42%)
    Lamont +11 (DK 39%)
    Cameron -25 (DK 10%)
    Sturgeon +18 (DK 20%)
    Darling +7 (DK 36%)

    Scottish women can obviously see a spiv in a suit a mile off.



  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    fitalass said:

    That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes as to why women are not being persuaded by the Yes Campaign. I have said before over the years that I have always found Salmond a very cold fish, excuse the pun. :)

    But right now Salmond is the spiv in a suit asking a lot of women to take the biggest gamble of their lives on their future financial security to realise a nationalist dream of independence they don't share. Its going to be interesting to look back and compare Salmond's personal ratings over the term of this Holyrood Parliament after the Indy Ref and nearer the Scottish elections.

    Is there a female breakdown by age - is Salmond more popular with older women ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited April 2014
    @Carnyx

    ( long post to reply to )

    that the party system encourages overcentralisation is hardly unique to the conservatives. It has happened with all national parties and the corollary of your representation thread is EVEL and Labour's botched devolution. Indeed much of your approach is simply repeating the idiocy of Brown and Scottish Labour in the 1980s where the vilified southern Tories were responsible for all Scotland's ills. In effect they did half the SNP's job for them and the wedges they drove between different parts of these islands are now starting to work against them. Not only have they half neutered themselves but they've spent their time fighting the wrong enemy. Paradoxically post indy ref and assuming Scotland stays put the evil tory theme will have to fall from labour's arguments or they will continue to slice their own throats.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    fitalass said:

    That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes as to why women are not being persuaded by the Yes Campaign. I have said before over the years that I have always found Salmond a very cold fish, excuse the pun. :)

    But right now Salmond is the spiv in a suit asking a lot of women to take the biggest gamble of their lives on their future financial security to realise a nationalist dream of independence they don't share. Its going to be interesting to look back and compare Salmond's personal ratings over the term of this Holyrood Parliament after the Indy Ref and nearer the Scottish elections.

    They should just be listening to their men and voting the right way , none of this bra burning stuff. Just do what's right and make sure their man's tea is on the table.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Barnes said:

    "Danny Alexander will be fighting it out for 3rd place with his Tory chums."

    Oh that makes me happy :-)

    I shouldn't be smiling too soon.

    @shadsy isn't given to outbreaks of fervent generosity when marking up political markets. Parsimonious springs to mind.

    Sometimes he is... Evens about Conservatives in Berwick...
    After 42 years with Alan Beith it's trickier to read than I'd like. Good result last time from the Conservatives but a local I know predicts a very tight result so Evens about a Con gain isn't overly wonderful.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    incompetent fop.

    YouGov ‏@YouGov Apr 10

    63% of the public think that David Cameron showed poor judgement in standing by Maria Miller http://y-g.co/1oOXyLJ
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.
    Dear Dear Alan, you are losing the plot now as well, there is no hope.

    admit it malc there's nothing more you want to do than buy some nice strappy sandals and walk round Ayshire in a tartan skirt.
    Alan, have you seen the Highland regiment uniforms? For instance, those in the regimental museum in Stirling Castle? The sporrans are so huge and hairy there is absolutely no doubt of the gender it is intended to convey. None of those Spartan comrades pulling each others' hairs out with tweezers before a nice supper of blood soup or whatever it was they ate.

    Women in the Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders ????

    Shirley Shum Mishtayk ????

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    AndyJS said:

    2010 Tories retiring on the list: Jonathan Evans, Lorraine Fullbrook, Jessica Lee, Aidan Burley.

    Tories on the list elected before 2010: Stewart Jackson, Lee Scott, Edward Timpson, Stephen Crabb, Chloe Smith, David Mundell.

    I missed Chloe Smith before, so 76 not 77 will be Tory first-time incumbents.

    As both Edward Timpson and Chloe Smith won their seats in by-elections barely a year before GE2010 they are in effect 1st time incumbents
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    fitalass said:

    That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes as to why women are not being persuaded by the Yes Campaign. I have said before over the years that I have always found Salmond a very cold fish, excuse the pun. :)

    But right now Salmond is the spiv in a suit asking a lot of women to take the biggest gamble of their lives on their future financial security to realise a nationalist dream of independence they don't share. Its going to be interesting to look back and compare Salmond's personal ratings over the term of this Holyrood Parliament after the Indy Ref and nearer the Scottish elections.

    'That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes' (trans. from Fitalassian) - 'that article precisely reflects all my personal prejudices'.

    Ipsos satisfaction ratings Sep 2013 - Women

    Salmond -4 (DK 14%)
    Davidson +3 (DK 42%)
    Lamont +11 (DK 39%)
    Cameron -25 (DK 10%)
    Sturgeon +18 (DK 20%)
    Darling +7 (DK 36%)

    Scottish women can obviously see a spiv in a suit a mile off.



    :)

    Fitalassian. I'll have to remember that one.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Choc bar recommendation
    Tesco's "finest swiss 72% dark chocolate" is v.nice.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.
    Dear Dear Alan, you are losing the plot now as well, there is no hope.

    admit it malc there's nothing more you want to do than buy some nice strappy sandals and walk round Ayshire in a tartan skirt.
    Alan, have you seen the Highland regiment uniforms? For instance, those in the regimental museum in Stirling Castle? The sporrans are so huge and hairy there is absolutely no doubt of the gender it is intended to convey. None of those Spartan comrades pulling each others' hairs out with tweezers before a nice supper of blood soup or whatever it was they ate.

    Now you're having a laugh, a sporran is simply a front hung handbag. It's where pipers keep their make-up.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    fitalass said:

    That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes as to why women are not being persuaded by the Yes Campaign. I have said before over the years that I have always found Salmond a very cold fish, excuse the pun. :)

    But right now Salmond is the spiv in a suit asking a lot of women to take the biggest gamble of their lives on their future financial security to realise a nationalist dream of independence they don't share. Its going to be interesting to look back and compare Salmond's personal ratings over the term of this Holyrood Parliament after the Indy Ref and nearer the Scottish elections.

    'That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes' (trans. from Fitalassian) - 'that article precisely reflects all my personal prejudices'.

    Ipsos satisfaction ratings Sep 2013 - Women

    Salmond -4 (DK 14%)
    Davidson +3 (DK 42%)
    Lamont +11 (DK 39%)
    Cameron -25 (DK 10%)
    Sturgeon +18 (DK 20%)
    Darling +7 (DK 36%)

    Scottish women can obviously see a spiv in a suit a mile off.



    I think there is also a degree of confusion in certain quarters. This is talking about Mr Salmond and you have picked it correctly. (How did the LD chappie score BTW?)

    These polls which are for indy yes/no are not talking about Mr Salmond, convenient as it is for some to given him the Emmanuel Goldstein treatment. To make my point, it is just as logical for them to be interpreted as young ladies swooning at Mr Osborne's debonair looks. Or those of Mr Miliband with his Darceyesque air and firm, robust statement of One nation!

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TGOHF said:

    fitalass said:

    That article is bang on the money in all the points it makes as to why women are not being persuaded by the Yes Campaign. I have said before over the years that I have always found Salmond a very cold fish, excuse the pun. :)

    But right now Salmond is the spiv in a suit asking a lot of women to take the biggest gamble of their lives on their future financial security to realise a nationalist dream of independence they don't share. Its going to be interesting to look back and compare Salmond's personal ratings over the term of this Holyrood Parliament after the Indy Ref and nearer the Scottish elections.

    Is there a female breakdown by age - is Salmond more popular with older women ?
    Ha Ha.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    JackW said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    john_zims said:

    @MonikerDiCanio

    Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

    'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

    Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.
    Dear Dear Alan, you are losing the plot now as well, there is no hope.

    admit it malc there's nothing more you want to do than buy some nice strappy sandals and walk round Ayshire in a tartan skirt.
    Alan, have you seen the Highland regiment uniforms? For instance, those in the regimental museum in Stirling Castle? The sporrans are so huge and hairy there is absolutely no doubt of the gender it is intended to convey. None of those Spartan comrades pulling each others' hairs out with tweezers before a nice supper of blood soup or whatever it was they ate.

    Women in the Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders ????

    Shirley Shum Mishtayk ????

    Those were Victorian uniforms IIRC! I hardly think there was much chance of that, with the morning inspection as immortalised in Up the Khyber Pass ...

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Incompetent fop.


    ConservativeGR ‏@ToryGrassroots 4h

    Maria Miller: David Cameron pays the price for grievous lapse of judgment - via @Telegraph http://fw.to/aBafad

    Ha Ha.

    :)
This discussion has been closed.