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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour needs to take 79 of these seats to secure a majority

For details of the seats themselves check out the UKPollingReport LAB target list with the names of the seats, their ranking, which party is defending and the size of the majority.

Read the full story here

JackW

Fat chance .... or as they say doing a "Pickles"

JackW

Just got a double first .... on this thread and the last thread, all within five minutes - must be a PB record !!

Charles

@taffys FPT x2

I was in another room, but I thought that the BBC reported that the English NHS is "marginally" outperforming the Welsh NHS according to some report.

First time I've ever heard the BBC qualify something like that...

AndyJS

Carl Cashman selected by LDs in Knowsley:

http://www.libdems.org.uk/carl_cashman

AndyJS

Names of candidates selected can be viewed on my Labour target list which is according to swing required.

Some of these seats aren't being targetted by Labour, such as Western Isles.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0

isam

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

JosiasJessop

FPT:

Reading Guido, the Tories' new code of conduct for MPs isn't as robust as people may like. One section of the 'employees' section seems slightly odd to me, saying they have the responsibility to: "understand the difference between normal work disagreements and harassment/bullying."

ISTR a Lib Dem document about their disciplinary procedure (which is a different area to the code of conduct). Do we have similar 'code of conduct' and 'disciplinary procedures' documents for all the parties? This is the sort of thing they should be leading best practice on ...

isam

On Topic

Labour target No2... BIG LAY!

TCPoliticalBetting

I wonder how many of the 106 are Conservative seats with a first time incumbent?

This 106 also assumes no net losses to the SNP.

ThomasNashe

Bermondsey & Southwark (123) will be a fascinating one. Hughes has held the seat for over 30 years with a very strong personal vote. It will be a tremendous triumph if he can hold on again in the current electoral circumstances.

AndyJS

Labour's 106 targets:

57 female candidates
48 male candidates
1 still to select: Bradford East

taffys

First time I've ever heard the BBC qualify something like that...

For me Labour's attitude to what's happening in Wales is like its attitude to what's happening in Scotland.

Complete head in the sand. Utter denial.

Incredible really.

MonikerDiCanio

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Richard_Nabavi

To put that figure of 79 required gains into perspective, in the past 50 years we have had 13 general elections, and only in two of them has the opposition exceeded that number of gains. Admittedly, the total number of seats has increased over that period, so a gain of 79 is proportionately less than it used to be, but, against that, we have a larger number of MPs from parties other than the big two, making it harder now for either Labour or the Conservatives to gain big numbers of seats.

Anyway here are the seat gains/losses by the main opposition party for the last half-century:

2010 +97
2005 +33
2001 +1
1997 +145
1992 +42
1987 +20
1983 -60
1979 +62
1974b -20
1974a +20
1970 +77
1966 -52
1964 +59

Blair the undisputed winner of the contest for most gains, Cameron second. Somehow I don't think Ed Miliband is going to be challenging them, or even matching Maggie's mere 62 of 1979.

taffys

Bermondsey & Southwark (123) will be a fascinating one.

Every single London constituency will be interesting. Are stratospheric house prices and gentrification having an effect on voting patterns?

TheWatcher

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

Theuniondivvie

It's that master strategist again (though I dare say Darling's being lined up as the fall guy):

'THE Chancellor’s move to rule out a deal to share the pound has made Scots more inclined to vote for independence than against it, according to an opinion poll by Survation.
The results, in a Survation poll for the Daily Record newspaper, show 28 per cent of Scots are more likely to back a Yes vote in September following the decision by George Osborne to reject the SNP plan to keep using sterling.
It compares with 21 per cent who say they are now more likely to vote No, and 51 per cent who say it makes no difference.'

http://tinyurl.com/pg7cauo

Charles

taffys said:

First time I've ever heard the BBC qualify something like that...

For me Labour's attitude to what's happening in Wales is like its attitude to what's happening in Scotland.

Complete head in the sand. Utter denial.

Incredible really.

But tactically, if you were defending the indefensible, wouldn't you conceed the point but then downplay it? So that when someone points out the stats the cynical voter just assumes that it is a ranting politician exagerating things?

AndyJS

11 former MPs in the list of 106 targets are attempting to win their seats back:

Mike O'Brien
Andrew Dismore
Nick Palmer
Bob Blizzard
Rob Marris
David Drew
Dawn Butler (was MP for Brent South, now contesting Brent Central)
Patrick Hall
Joan Ryan
Sally Keeble
Anne Snelgrove

isam

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

ThomasNashe

Richard_Nabavi said:

To put that figure of 79 required gains into perspective, in the past 50 years we have had 13 general elections, and only in two of them has the opposition exceeded that number of gains. Admittedly, the total number of seats has increased over that period, so a gain of 79 is proportionately less than it used to be, but, against that, we have a larger number of MPs from parties other than the big two, making it harder now for either Labour or the Conservatives to gain big numbers of seats.

Anyway here are the seat gains/losses by the opposition party for the last half-century:

2010 +97
2005 +33
2001 +1
1997 +145
1992 +42
1987 +20
1983 -60
1979 +62
1974b -20
1974a +20
1970 +77
1966 -52
1964 +59

Blair the undisputed winner of the contest for most gains, Cameron second. Somehow I don't think Ed Miliband is going to be challenging them, or even matching Maggie's mere 62 of 1979.

Perhaps, but the opportunity to squeeze LD votes provides EdM with a unique opportunity for easy gains. Just to take two seats I'm familiar with (Plymouth Sutton and Ealing Central and Acton), it'd be a major surprise were Labour not to take them because of the substantial LD vote in both seats. In effect they were seats that Con was able to capture last time by squeezing through the middle.

ThomasNashe

taffys said:

Bermondsey & Southwark (123) will be a fascinating one.

Every single London constituency will be interesting. Are stratospheric house prices and gentrification having an effect on voting patterns?

Perhaps it's all going to come down to the crucial Russian oligarch vote?

Charles

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

So misuse of public funds for party political purposes.

Trougher!

Richard_Nabavi

[deleted, I misunderstood your point]

ThomasNashe

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

AndyJS

Labour's list goes down to Swindon North requiring a swing of 7.02% but not Derbyshire South with 7.07%. It then includes four LD seats requiring bigger swings, Cambridge, Bermondsey, Bristol W, Leeds NW. The latter requires a swing of 13.25%.

AndreaParma_82

Some EU elections polls from Italy (9-11 April)

Pollsters: Datamaedia/Piepoli/IPSOS/EMG/IXE'

PD 31.3/33/33.9/33.9/32.2%
M5S 24.3/24.5/22.3/22.5/25.2%
FI 20/19/20.5/20.9/19.1%
NCD-UDC 5/6/5.3/5.1/5.2%
Lega 5/4/5.8/4.4/5.3%
Tsipras 3.9/4.5/3.1/3.1/4.2%
Brothers of Italy 3.3/3.5/3/3.4/3.6%
Civic Choice & Co 2.3/2.4/3.4/2.1/1.9%

Threshold is 4%

AndyJS

OGH: 79 seats needed for a majority? I make it 68.

Sean_F

Barnes said:

Peterborough 2010

Con 18,133
Lab 13,272
LD 8816
UKIP 3007

If national trends hold, with UKIP at least doubling (with the lion's share coming from CON) and LD gaflumping (with most going to Lab) can see Lab sneaking that.

I wouldn't give Labour a chance in Peterborough.

SimonStClare

Charles said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

So misuse of public funds for party political purposes.

Trougher!

I see little difference between that and Councillors giving 10% of 'expenses' to their party.

MarkSenior

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

Theft is theft even if you are Robin Hood and give the proceeds to the poor let alone finance your gang's HQ with them .

AndyJS

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

I thought Jon Snow expressed the same sort of lofty exasperation with Farage that Clegg was guilty of in the second debate.

isam

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

Charles

SimonStClare said:

Charles said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

So misuse of public funds for party political purposes.

Trougher!

I see little difference between that and Councillors giving 10% of 'expenses' to their party.

The latter is a little dubious, but if the Councillors were otherwise going to keep the money as personal income (after all, I believe they are typically allowances not expenses) then it's probably just on the right side of the line.

What I have an issue with is where, say, a staff allowance is used to cover the cost of someone who partially works on party duties and partly on public duties, or rental of offices, etc.

Richard_Nabavi

AndyJS said:

OGH: 79 seats needed for a majority? I make it 68.

You are right

AndyJS

There are 11 ethnic minority candidates in Labour's 106 seat list, with the possibility of another to come in Bradford East. Interestingly, 8 of the 11 are female.

ThomasNashe

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

I would hope it would lose them votes. See Mark Senior's response below.

isam

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

Theft is theft even if you are Robin Hood and give the proceeds to the poor let alone finance your gang's HQ with them .

As with all these smears and allegations, all they do is reinforce other party diehards views, while UKIP inclined voters see past it all.

DavidL

Those seats in the south east look pretty optimistic for a start.

Unless the SNP collapse after a no vote Dundee East looks rock solid for the SNP to me. In fact Labour should be more worried about Dundee West. My constituency MP recently sent us a letter about a coffee morning in the village hall. Don't remember him doing that before. I think he is worried and rightly so.

Overall this is going to be a bit of a challenge for Labour. Standing current polling I think it is entirely possible the tory vote will increase marginally and the Labour vote rather more. This may produce a lot fewer gains than is currently being contemplated if the tories lose votes to UKIP in safe seats.

Charles

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.

isam

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

I would hope it would lose them votes. See Mark Senior's response below.

Asking Mark Senior about UKIP is like asking Captain Bligh what he thinks of Fletcher Christian

AndreaParma_82

Something like 79-80

TCPoliticalBetting said:

I wonder how many of the 106 are Conservative seats with a first time incumbent?

AndyJS

The list includes 3 seats Labour didn't hold at any time during 1997-2010: Edinburgh West, Argyll & Bute, Bermondsey.

taffys

''But tactically, if you were defending the indefensible, wouldn't you concede the point but then downplay it?''

You would have thought that by now Labour would have had umpteen crisis meetings about Wales. This is their home turf. Education and Health are the main thrusts of their attack at every election.

At the next election those thrusts will be smashed before they even start.

Candidates wanting the criticise the coalition on public services will be silenced to gibbering wrecks before they even start, like Douglas Alexander was on QT the other night, by the mention of Wales.

You can tell by the way it goes completely silent on here and in the media Labour haven't even begun to start thinking about this, Just like they say they are happy to lose 40 MPs in Scotland.

Astonishing really.

MarkSenior

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

Clearly as someone who supports UKIP , you do not see anything wrong with the leader of your own party troughing .

Richard_Nabavi

Given UKIP's remarkable record on MEPs sent to jail for fraudulently claiming expenses (a record even more remarkable, proportionately, than Labour's equivalent for MPs), they'd be well advised to shut up on the subject of expenses.

Charles

isam said:

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

Theft is theft even if you are Robin Hood and give the proceeds to the poor let alone finance your gang's HQ with them .

As with all these smears and allegations, all they do is reinforce other party diehards views, while UKIP inclined voters see past it all.

If it is the truth then it is not a smear

Stuart_Dickson

Paddy Power have cut their UKIP price from 20/1 to 7/1 in Basingstoke (Maria Miller's seat).

Best prices:

Con 1/10 (Lad, Hills)
UKIP 10/1 (Lad, Hills)
Lab 33/1 (PP)
LD 66/1 (PP)

isam

Charles said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.

Well lets agree that all parties have been guilty of over claiming expenses, ok

Labour, Conservatives & Lib Dem MP's have taken from the British taxpayer for their own personal wealth (to buy 2nd homes/clear moats etc)

UKIP have taken from a European pot to fund the party and destroy the thing they have been elected to destroy

We shall see what the public thinks is worse

isam

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

Clearly as someone who supports UKIP , you do not see anything wrong with the leader of your own party troughing .

Clearly, if it for the party cause, and from the EU.

MarkSenior

isam said:

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

Theft is theft even if you are Robin Hood and give the proceeds to the poor let alone finance your gang's HQ with them .

As with all these smears and allegations, all they do is reinforce other party diehards views, while UKIP inclined voters see past it all.

As with all these truths even when confessed to by Farage , UKIP inclined voters will ignore them or justify them in their minds .

isam

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

Theft is theft even if you are Robin Hood and give the proceeds to the poor let alone finance your gang's HQ with them .

As with all these smears and allegations, all they do is reinforce other party diehards views, while UKIP inclined voters see past it all.

As with all these truths even when confessed to by Farage , UKIP inclined voters will ignore them or justify them in their minds .

Obviously, or they wouldn't vote for them or join the party

Want to bet on 2015 vote share.. I will give you a special price of 4/5 on LD bt UKIP

TheWatcher

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.

UKIP have taken from a European pot to fund the party and destroy the thing they have been elected to destroy

And where does all that Euro money come from? Oh, yes, the British taxpayer amongst others.

Farage and UKIP are troughers, same as the rest of them.

Garethofthevale

AndyJS said:

Carl Cashman selected by LDs in Knowsley:

http://www.libdems.org.uk/carl_cashman

Can he hold on to his deposit (LD got 13% last time round) in Lab's 2nd safest seat?

anotherDave

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

Theft is theft even if you are Robin Hood and give the proceeds to the poor let alone finance your gang's HQ with them .

As with all these smears and allegations, all they do is reinforce other party diehards views, while UKIP inclined voters see past it all.

As with all these truths even when confessed to by Farage , UKIP inclined voters will ignore them or justify them in their minds .

As a LD voter, are you outraged to learn that LD MPs rent office space from their local LD Party?

http://order-order.com/2013/11/14/clegg-24-other-libdems-are-re-renting/

Stuart_Dickson

Current LAB prices in their Scottish target seats:

Dundee East (SNP) 11/4 (FAV = SNP 1/4)
East Dunbartonshire (LD) 1/2 FAV
Argyll & Bute (LD) 2/1 (FAV = SNP 7/4)
Edinburgh West (LD) 4/5 FAV
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 9/4 (FAV = Con 2/5)
Western Isles (SNP): no prices yet
Gordon (LD) 7/2 (Joint FAV = SNP and LD both on 11/8)
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (LD) 3/1 (FAV = LD 2/5)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD) 7/2 (FAV = LD 1/2)

So, LAB are odds-on FAV in two Lib Dem seats. Otherwise, it is looking like an uphill job in those other target seats.

isam

TheWatcher said:

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.

UKIP have taken from a European pot to fund the party and destroy the thing they have been elected to destroy

And where does all that Euro money come from? Oh, yes, the British taxpayer amongst others.

Farage and UKIP are troughers, same as the rest of them.

Haha! "amongst others!"

Im sure the people who voted UKIP in EU elections wouldn't mind the party claiming from the EU and funding the party with it

If it annoys the Pro EU parties and their voters... so what?

AndyJS

TCPoliticalBetting said:

I wonder how many of the 106 are Conservative seats with a first time incumbent?

This 106 also assumes no net losses to the SNP.

Only 86 of them are Con seats. The others are 16 LD, 2 PC, 1 Green, 1 SNP.

4 Of the Tories are retiring and another 5 were elected before 2010, so 77 will be first-time incumbents defending their seats.

Quincel

Stuart_Dickson said:

Current LAB prices in their Scottish target seats:

Dundee East (SNP) 11/4 (FAV = SNP 1/4)
East Dunbartonshire (LD) 1/2 FAV
Argyll & Bute (LD) 2/1 (FAV = SNP 7/4)
Edinburgh West (LD) 4/5 FAV
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 9/4 (FAV = Con 2/5)
Western Isles (SNP): no prices yet
Gordon (LD) 7/2 (Joint FAV = SNP and LD both on 11/8)
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (LD) 3/1 (FAV = LD 2/5)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD) 7/2 (FAV = LD 1/2)

So, LAB are odds-on FAV in two Lib Dem seats. Otherwise, it is looking like an uphill job in those other target seats.

LDs are surely too short in loads of those? They're polling 6-8% in Scottish Westminster polls right now, how can they be favourites in more than one or two seats if that could be their vote share across Scotland? Money to be made betting against them in all the ones they lead, surely?

EDIT: OK, now polling quite as low as I though. But my point still stands.

TheWatcher

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.

UKIP have taken from a European pot to fund the party and destroy the thing they have been elected to destroy

And where does all that Euro money come from? Oh, yes, the British taxpayer amongst others.

Farage and UKIP are troughers, same as the rest of them.

Haha! "amongst others!"

Im sure the people who voted UKIP in EU elections wouldn't mind the part claiming from the EU and funding the party

If it annoys the Pro EU parties and their voters... so what?

Troughing is troughing.

What was Farage's USP again? To be different from the others?

It looks as if he's no better to me, simply another member of the sponging political class.

MonikerDiCanio

An piece on Salmond's inability to attract female voters;
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jennyhjul/100266741/alex-salmond-fails-to-lure-the-female-voter/

isam

TheWatcher said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.

UKIP have taken from a European pot to fund the party and destroy the thing they have been elected to destroy

And where does all that Euro money come from? Oh, yes, the British taxpayer amongst others.

Farage and UKIP are troughers, same as the rest of them.

Haha! "amongst others!"

Im sure the people who voted UKIP in EU elections wouldn't mind the part claiming from the EU and funding the party

If it annoys the Pro EU parties and their voters... so what?

Troughing is troughing.

What was Farage's USP again? To be different from the others? Looks as if he's no better to me.

Vote for someone else then

Richard_Nabavi

Incidentally, can anyone point us to the quarterly statements of UKIP MEP expenses?

Farage insisted on Friday that from next month [June 2009] all his MEPs would publish their expenses online. "From the moment any Ukip members get elected, all elected MEPs will provide a clear and traceable quarterly statement of their expense accounts," he said.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/may/24/mps-expenses-ukip-nigel-farage

marco

Labour would do better with a decent candidate, they did remarkably well here in 2010 with one of the best results for labour in the region and came top at the PCC elections in 2012. A strong local independent could do well here and would be well worth as bet.

anotherDave

Richard_Nabavi said:

Incidentally, can anyone point us to the quarterly statements of UKIP MEP expenses?

Farage insisted on Friday that from next month [June 2009] all his MEPs would publish their expenses online. "From the moment any Ukip members get elected, all elected MEPs will provide a clear and traceable quarterly statement of their expense accounts," he said.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/may/24/mps-expenses-ukip-nigel-farage

I think MEPs have allowances, rather than re-claim expenses.

AndyJS

2010 Tories retiring on the list: Jonathan Evans, Lorraine Fullbrook, Jessica Lee, Aidan Burley.

Tories on the list elected before 2010: Stewart Jackson, Lee Scott, Edward Timpson, Stephen Crabb, Chloe Smith, David Mundell.

I missed Chloe Smith before, so 76 not 77 will be Tory first-time incumbents.

Richard_Nabavi

anotherDave said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Incidentally, can anyone point us to the quarterly statements of UKIP MEP expenses?

Farage insisted on Friday that from next month [June 2009] all his MEPs would publish their expenses online. "From the moment any Ukip members get elected, all elected MEPs will provide a clear and traceable quarterly statement of their expense accounts," he said.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/may/24/mps-expenses-ukip-nigel-farage

I think MEPs have allowances, rather than re-claim expenses.

Yes, but I was asking for a link to the clear and traceable quarterly statements. They do exist as promised, right?

Sean_F

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.

UKIP have taken from a European pot to fund the party and destroy the thing they have been elected to destroy

And where does all that Euro money come from? Oh, yes, the British taxpayer amongst others.

Farage and UKIP are troughers, same as the rest of them.

Haha! "amongst others!"

Im sure the people who voted UKIP in EU elections wouldn't mind the party claiming from the EU and funding the party with it

If it annoys the Pro EU parties and their voters... so what?

So long as it's lawful, then it makes sense to use money from our opponents against them,

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

Theft is theft even if you are Robin Hood and give the proceeds to the poor let alone finance your gang's HQ with them .

As with all these smears and allegations, all they do is reinforce other party diehards views, while UKIP inclined voters see past it all.

As with all these truths even when confessed to by Farage , UKIP inclined voters will ignore them or justify them in their minds .

As a LD voter, are you outraged to learn that LD MPs rent office space from their local LD Party?

http://order-order.com/2013/11/14/clegg-24-other-libdems-are-re-renting/

Nope , office space has to be rented from someone , makes sense for an MP to rent from their own party which is what most MP's do if there is suitable property available .

isam

*****BETTING POST*****

Two prominent Lib Dems on the site @MikeSmithson & @MarkSenior have declined to back their party to outpoll UKIP next year at 8/11 & 4/5 respectively

Ladbrokes are 6/4 UKIP

Garethofthevale

And where does all that Euro money come from? Oh, yes, the British taxpayer amongst others.

Farage and UKIP are troughers, same as the rest of them.





And the German, French, Dutch taxpayer etc. The difference is that the level of expenses UKIP claims in no way impacts on the amount we handover to the EU. On the other hand the amount Westminster MPs claim does impact on the national debt in a tiny tiny way

Stuart_Dickson

Quincel said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Current LAB prices in their Scottish target seats:

Dundee East (SNP) 11/4 (FAV = SNP 1/4)
East Dunbartonshire (LD) 1/2 FAV
Argyll & Bute (LD) 2/1 (FAV = SNP 7/4)
Edinburgh West (LD) 4/5 FAV
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 9/4 (FAV = Con 2/5)
Western Isles (SNP): no prices yet
Gordon (LD) 7/2 (Joint FAV = SNP and LD both on 11/8)
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (LD) 3/1 (FAV = LD 2/5)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD) 7/2 (FAV = LD 1/2)

So, LAB are odds-on FAV in two Lib Dem seats. Otherwise, it is looking like an uphill job in those other target seats.

LDs are surely too short in loads of those? They're polling 6-8% in Scottish Westminster polls right now, how can they be favourites in more than one or two seats if that could be their vote share across Scotland? Money to be made betting against them in all the ones they lead, surely?

EDIT: OK, now polling quite as low as I though. But my point still stands.

The Scottish Lib Dems are safe in two Scottish seats:

a) Orkney & Shetland (the Scottish Secretary Carmichael)
b) Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charlie Kennedy)

Otherwise it is smelly breeks time all round for SLD MPs and the new SLD PPCs where the sitting MP is retiring.

I think that the Lib Dems have been priced laughably short by Shadsy in most of their Scottish seats. He has already been forced to lengthen several of them. The pickings are rich for early birds.

MarkSenior

isam said:

*****BETTING POST*****

Two prominent Lib Dems on the site @MikeSmithson & @MarkSenior have declined to back their party to outpoll UKIP next year at 8/11 & 4/5 respectively

Ladbrokes are 6/4 UKIP

We may get better odds post the EU elections . In any case I would not bet with you personally .

anotherDave

MarkSenior said:

Nope , office space has to be rented from someone , makes sense for an MP to rent from their own party which is what most MP's do if there is suitable property available .

So why are you accusing UKIP of theft?

AndyJS

Interesting fact that might swing the entire election if it's close:

A whopping 45 of Labour's 106 targets are seats where the Labour candidate is a woman and the Con/LD/SNP candidate is a man.

38 Con/Lab
6 LD/Lab
1 SNP/Lab

SimonStClare

isam said:

*****BETTING POST*****

Two prominent Lib Dems on the site @MikeSmithson & @MarkSenior have declined to back their party to outpoll UKIP next year at 8/11 & 4/5 respectively

Ladbrokes are 6/4 UKIP

That is not a 'BETTING POST' - but it is a little childish.

isam

SimonStClare said:

isam said:

*****BETTING POST*****

Two prominent Lib Dems on the site @MikeSmithson & @MarkSenior have declined to back their party to outpoll UKIP next year at 8/11 & 4/5 respectively

Ladbrokes are 6/4 UKIP

That is not a 'BETTING POST' - but it is a little childish.

It's both

isam

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

*****BETTING POST*****

Two prominent Lib Dems on the site @MikeSmithson & @MarkSenior have declined to back their party to outpoll UKIP next year at 8/11 & 4/5 respectively

Ladbrokes are 6/4 UKIP

We may get better odds post the EU elections . In any case I would not bet with you personally .

Oh whys that? (point 2)

Danny565

Richard_Nabavi said:

To put that figure of 79 required gains into perspective, in the past 50 years we have had 13 general elections, and only in two of them has the opposition exceeded that number of gains. Admittedly, the total number of seats has increased over that period, so a gain of 79 is proportionately less than it used to be, but, against that, we have a larger number of MPs from parties other than the big two, making it harder now for either Labour or the Conservatives to gain big numbers of seats.

Anyway here are the seat gains/losses by the main opposition party for the last half-century:

2010 +97
2005 +33
2001 +1
1997 +145
1992 +42
1987 +20
1983 -60
1979 +62
1974b -20
1974a +20
1970 +77
1966 -52
1964 +59

Blair the undisputed winner of the contest for most gains, Cameron second. Somehow I don't think Ed Miliband is going to be challenging them, or even matching Maggie's mere 62 of 1979.

I don't think even the most optimistic Labour supporter is expecting Blair levels of gains, but why on earth would you rule out Miliband challenging Cameron's less-than-spectacular 2010 performance?

And of course the "LOL as if Miliband will do better than Thatcher!!!11" argument doesn't really stand up either, since Thatcher was also considered a weird annoying incompetent before she became PM.

MarkSenior

isam said:

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

*****BETTING POST*****

Two prominent Lib Dems on the site @MikeSmithson & @MarkSenior have declined to back their party to outpoll UKIP next year at 8/11 & 4/5 respectively

Ladbrokes are 6/4 UKIP

We may get better odds post the EU elections . In any case I would not bet with you personally .

Oh whys that? (point 2)

My personal choice .

AndyJS

Salmond is more popular with men in Scotland for the same reason that Farage is more popular with men in England. They both want to do something slightly risky and daring: men like that sort of thing, women are more risk-averse and prefer stability, generally speaking. A certain type of man likes to risk everything for the chance of glory and honour, even if it might all end disastrously. That's why it's likely young men will be the biggest supporters of Scottish independence in the referendum.

Danny565

Stuart_Dickson said:

Quincel said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Current LAB prices in their Scottish target seats:

Dundee East (SNP) 11/4 (FAV = SNP 1/4)
East Dunbartonshire (LD) 1/2 FAV
Argyll & Bute (LD) 2/1 (FAV = SNP 7/4)
Edinburgh West (LD) 4/5 FAV
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 9/4 (FAV = Con 2/5)
Western Isles (SNP): no prices yet
Gordon (LD) 7/2 (Joint FAV = SNP and LD both on 11/8)
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (LD) 3/1 (FAV = LD 2/5)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (LD) 7/2 (FAV = LD 1/2)

So, LAB are odds-on FAV in two Lib Dem seats. Otherwise, it is looking like an uphill job in those other target seats.

LDs are surely too short in loads of those? They're polling 6-8% in Scottish Westminster polls right now, how can they be favourites in more than one or two seats if that could be their vote share across Scotland? Money to be made betting against them in all the ones they lead, surely?

EDIT: OK, now polling quite as low as I though. But my point still stands.

The Scottish Lib Dems are safe in two Scottish seats:

a) Orkney & Shetland (the Scottish Secretary Carmichael)
b) Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charlie Kennedy)

Otherwise it is smelly breeks time all round for SLD MPs and the new SLD PPCs where the sitting MP is retiring.

I think that the Lib Dems have been priced laughably short by Shadsy in most of their Scottish seats. He has already been forced to lengthen several of them. The pickings are rich for early birds.

Who do you think will take Inverness? The Highlands have been heavily trending away from Labour in recent times, which is why I don't give them any chance at all of taking Caithness or Argyll & Bute despite them being close-ish, but I've been thinking about Inverness purely because they held that seat in the fairly recent past which might mean they have slightly more of a "base" there.

john_zims

@MonikerDiCanio

Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

Charles

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.

Well lets agree that all parties have been guilty of over claiming expenses, ok

Labour, Conservatives & Lib Dem MP's have taken from the British taxpayer for their own personal wealth (to buy 2nd homes/clear moats etc)

UKIP have taken from a European pot to fund the party and destroy the thing they have been elected to destroy

We shall see what the public thinks is worse

Just as a factual point, Douglas Hogg never claimed money to clear his moat.

AndyJS

Where did this 79 figure come from? ElectionData?

AndreaParma_82

Norwich South
Morecambe & Lunesdale
East Dunbartonshire
Brent Central
Harrow East
Ealing Central & Acton
Pendle
Colne Valley
Brighton Pavillion
Bristol West

which is the 11th?

AndyJS said:

There are 11 ethnic minority candidates in Labour's 106 seat list, with the possibility of another to come in Bradford East. Interestingly, 8 of the 11 are female.

Charles

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

Theft is theft even if you are Robin Hood and give the proceeds to the poor let alone finance your gang's HQ with them .

As with all these smears and allegations, all they do is reinforce other party diehards views, while UKIP inclined voters see past it all.

As with all these truths even when confessed to by Farage , UKIP inclined voters will ignore them or justify them in their minds .

As a LD voter, are you outraged to learn that LD MPs rent office space from their local LD Party?

http://order-order.com/2013/11/14/clegg-24-other-libdems-are-re-renting/

Provided that it is on a fully arms-length basis and at a freely negotiated market rent I wouldnt have an issue in theory.

In practice, however, shared site agreements are notoriously easy to abuse, so I think it is easier to have a bright line test and simply ban the arrangement

BobaFett

@Isam

Interesting. Very interesting. I see those two PBers as pretty close to the Yellow grassroots so it does look as if the Liberals now see no chance of redemption.

isam

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

MarkSenior said:

isam said:

*****BETTING POST*****

Two prominent Lib Dems on the site @MikeSmithson & @MarkSenior have declined to back their party to outpoll UKIP next year at 8/11 & 4/5 respectively

Ladbrokes are 6/4 UKIP

We may get better odds post the EU elections . In any case I would not bet with you personally .

Oh whys that? (point 2)

My personal choice .

Haha you wally!

isam

Charles said:

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.

Well lets agree that all parties have been guilty of over claiming expenses, ok

Labour, Conservatives & Lib Dem MP's have taken from the British taxpayer for their own personal wealth (to buy 2nd homes/clear moats etc)

UKIP have taken from a European pot to fund the party and destroy the thing they have been elected to destroy

We shall see what the public thinks is worse

Just as a factual point, Douglas Hogg never claimed money to clear his moat.

Apols

Ok, to clear Wisteria from Chimneys

BobaFett

AndyJS said:

Salmond is more popular with men in Scotland for the same reason that Farage is more popular with men in England. They both want to do something slightly risky and daring: men like that sort of thing, women are more risk-averse and prefer stability, generally speaking. A certain type of man likes to risk everything for the chance of glory and honour, even if it might all end disastrously. That's why it's likely young men will be the biggest supporters of Scottish independence in the referendum.

Are you saying independence is the choice of the testosterone fuelled bloke Andy? ;-)

AndyJS

AndreaParma_82 said:

Norwich South
Morecambe & Lunesdale
East Dunbartonshire
Brent Central
Harrow East
Ealing Central & Acton
Pendle
Colne Valley
Brighton Pavillion
Bristol West

which is the 11th?

AndyJS said:

There are 11 ethnic minority candidates in Labour's 106 seat list, with the possibility of another to come in Bradford East. Interestingly, 8 of the 11 are female.

Hastings & Rye:

http://www.chineseforlabour.org/news/item/two-chinese-for-labour-members-selected-as-labour-candidates

old_labour

@AndyJS‌
Thanks again for marshalling the stats re the upcoming elections.

AndreaParma_82

Thanks Andy. Form her pic when selected I didn't put her down as BAME but looking at her again knowing her Malaysian heritage it's pretty clear

isam

BobaFett said:

@Isam

Interesting. Very interesting. I see those two PBers as pretty close to the Yellow grassroots so it does look as if the Liberals now see no chance of redemption.

Yes indeed

I'd say that their lack of confidence makes the 8/11 Clegg to be gone by Jan 1st 2016 an even better bet

old_labour

The Sun has nominated George Robertson as its villain of the week for his speech on independence
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/article4751667.ece

SimonStClare

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Charles said:

isam said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

isam said:

Here is the Jon Snow attempted hatchet job of Nigel Farage from Wednesday

Judge for yourself if it was successful

Personally I thought Snow tried every trick in the book, including allegations of racism (4:07) to get Farage riled, and failed. He even accused Farage of having a bad expenses record (4:13) and then pretended when challenged seconds later, (4:23) that hadn't said it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4OxvVtgAx0

Snow is unable to control himself. His aged face is a mask of hate and panic during that interrogation.

Farage totally avoids answering the question on expenses.

Another shifty trougher.

No he didn't!

Clear as crystal, he said they took as much as they could and funded the party with it, without gaining personally

I have to say that struck me as a curious line. Using public money for party coffers is OK, so long as you don't enrich yourself personally?

I'd have no problem with Sinn Fein MP's squeezing as much money as they can out of Westminster expenses as using it to fund their party. Same applies to UKIP in Brussels.

I wouldn't have thought the people that vote UKIP and Sinn Fein would mind either. Do you think it will lose them votes?

If they were doing it and spending it on themselves (buying a 2nd hoime/making £1m profit/Wisteria/DuckHouse/Moat) that would be different,

That's an immoral and undemocratic position.

If UKIP believes that parties should be state funded they should have the guts to put it in their manifesto. Money allocated by Parliament for one function should not be diverted to another use.

Well lets agree that all parties have been guilty of over claiming expenses, ok

Labour, Conservatives & Lib Dem MP's have taken from the British taxpayer for their own personal wealth (to buy 2nd homes/clear moats etc)

UKIP have taken from a European pot to fund the party and destroy the thing they have been elected to destroy

We shall see what the public thinks is worse

Just as a factual point, Douglas Hogg never claimed money to clear his moat.

Apols

Ok, to clear Wisteria from Chimneys

Not quite - It was to mend a leaky roof, put some outside lights on the property for security and mend some that were broken.

I'd also appreciate your advice - The Veritas party lead by Therese Muchewicz now has 29 twitter followers – what are the chances of them taking more seats than UKIP? ; )

Carnyx

Someone doesn't have her head in the sand about the Labour problem in Scotland:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/sturgeon-urges-all-labour-voters-to-back-independence.23937187

"In her speech to the SNP spring conference in Aberdeen, she will argue independence would "rejuvenate" a Labour Party "no longer dancing to Westminster's tune".

Her comments, which are likely to rile Scots Labour leader Johann Lamont, will be accompanied by an announcement of extra Scottish Government funding for food banks, calculated to highlight the impact of the UK Government's unpopular welfare reforms.

Ms Sturgeon, the "Yes minister" responsible for referendum strategy, will target Labour voters as polls show they are more sympathetic to independence than Conservative or LibDems' supporters, and are prominent among the one million or so Scots who remain undecided about the referendum.

She will say: "To every Labour voter in the country I say this - the Yes campaign is not asking you to change your party, instead it offers you the chance to get your party back.

"Independence will not mean the end of Labour but it might mean a rejuvenated Labour Party, a Labour Party free to make its own decisions, a Labour Party no longer dancing to Westminster's tune.

"For every voter with Labour in their heart, the message is clear: don't vote No to stop the SNP, vote Yes to reclaim the Labour Party.""

Not just rattling Ms Lamont's cage, but prodding her in the ribs as well ...

Alanbrooke

john_zims said:

@MonikerDiCanio

Salmond's clearly got a women problem,all the publicity about his troughing can't have helped or maybe they just see through all the bluff,bluster and bull$hit.

'Only 28.5 per cent of the female electorate would now vote for independence, down from 32.5 per cent in March, according to the Survation poll. Support for the No camp was much higher among women than men (51 per cent compared to 44 per cent).'

Well of course Salmond has a woman problem, the nats are a bunch of blunt irate blokes who ignore ladies and seek male company in a kind of clannish way. There's something vaguely homoerotic about it, think of the film 300 with body hair.

Neil

SimonStClare said:

The Veritas party lead by Therese Muchewicz now has 29 twitter followers

Like those Japanese soldiers in the jungle who havent been told their Emperor has surrendered. Maybe RKS could be prevailed upon to convince them to give up?