I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.
The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.
And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.
People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
Epstein is trundling along. Let's see what gets released. If the "good stuff" doesn't get released by the DofJ, there will be patriotic citizens employed there who will leak copies.
Why would Trump destroy the DofJ if there was nothing to show?
The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.
The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.
And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.
People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
Sure. Let's see. But I recommend we don't get our hopes up regarding Trump damage.
I reckon that the thing that Trump might be worried about is - he was an informant against Epstein (Epstein seems to have thought this). And that there was an immunity deal.
Among the MAGA crowd, being an informant for the government sounds "weak". And an immunity deal would be an admission of guilt.
Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
Because we are not declining?
Setting aside the error bars on GDP growth a 0.1% fall is flat not “declining”
Hope he’s celebrating with some jellied eels, mash and liquor with a sing song with Chas and Dave.
He really nailed that cockney accent didn't he.
I don't know if it was broadcast in the UK, but his sitcom from the early Sixties with Mary Tyler Moore as his wife has aged very well. He was a master of physical comedy.
“Before I retired we had two construction job openings at my company. We had 200 people put in for them. First was a drug test. That eliminated about half of the applicants. Next was a credit report. That eliminated some more. (We didn't want creditors dunning money and having us to take it out of their checks). Next was police record. More eliminated. Next was driving record, sense they would be driving company vehicles. We ended up with 5 people out of 200 to interview. The two we hired were college grads for construction jobs. 40 years ago, we could pick from a much larger group with only a high school degree.”
Part of what’s going on there is around the credit report and the police record.
Meanwhile, the number of people in debt has also increased significantly. One unlucky bout of ill health can leave the average American being pursued by creditors. Wealth inequality has increased.
40 years ago, there were fewer Americans with a police record or bad credit report. Moreover, it was harder to check those things. So a company like this would not be filtering them out in the same way. Now, a bit of bad luck, a minor infringement with the law, those now follow you, you can’t get a job, you can’t improve your situation.
I would suggest that we are following the US in this.
Used to be that construction in the UK was full of people with a bad history. Scaffolders got their rep, because they would employ anyone who was a bit of a hard character (tough job).
I suppose it's nice that we check. But it creates a class of the unemployable. And employment is a proven, critical factor in re-offending.
Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
Because we are not declining?
Setting aside the error bars on GDP growth a 0.1% fall is flat not “declining”
I think we have another case of Schrodingers economy, beating all our peers but destroyed by Reeves...
Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
Because we are not declining?
Setting aside the error bars on GDP growth a 0.1% fall is flat not “declining”
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
So why isn't Germany growing as fast as Poland ?
Because its advantageous for poorer countries to have greater economic integration with richer countries and for those richer countries to transfer wealth to the poorer countries.
Its a lot less advantageous for the richer countries.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
Hope he’s celebrating with some jellied eels, mash and liquor with a sing song with Chas and Dave.
He really nailed that cockney accent didn't he.
I don't know if it was broadcast in the UK, but his sitcom from the early Sixties with Mary Tyler Moore as his wife has aged very well. He was a master of physical comedy.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
So why isn't Germany growing as fast as Poland ?
Because its advantageous for poorer countries to have greater economic integration with richer countries and for those richer countries to transfer wealth to the poorer countries.
Its a lot less advantageous for the richer countries.
The rich countries get cheap labour and cheap stuff. Which is advantageous to *some*.
Hope he’s celebrating with some jellied eels, mash and liquor with a sing song with Chas and Dave.
He really nailed that cockney accent didn't he.
I don't know if it was broadcast in the UK, but his sitcom from the early Sixties with Mary Tyler Moore as his wife has aged very well. He was a master of physical comedy.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
So why isn't Germany growing as fast as Poland ?
Because its advantageous for poorer countries to have greater economic integration with richer countries and for those richer countries to transfer wealth to the poorer countries.
Its a lot less advantageous for the richer countries.
Growth is measured in proportion to the size of one’s current economy. It’s easier for the smaller Polish economy to grow under those metrics, as they catch up with the larger German economy. That doesn’t mean greater economic integration is bad for the richer economies. Germany exported $98 billion value to Poland last year.
The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.
The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.
And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.
People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
Epstein is trundling along. Let's see what gets released. If the "good stuff" doesn't get released by the DofJ, there will be patriotic citizens employed there who will leak copies.
Why would Trump destroy the DofJ if there was nothing to show?
The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.
The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.
And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.
People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
Sure. Let's see. But I recommend we don't get our hopes up regarding Trump damage.
I reckon that the thing that Trump might be worried about is - he was an informant against Epstein (Epstein seems to have thought this). And that there was an immunity deal.
Among the MAGA crowd, being an informant for the government sounds "weak". And an immunity deal would be an admission of guilt.
Would be dynamite. But I'm not expecting a revelation of that sort.
Hope he’s celebrating with some jellied eels, mash and liquor with a sing song with Chas and Dave.
He really nailed that cockney accent didn't he.
I don't know if it was broadcast in the UK, but his sitcom from the early Sixties with Mary Tyler Moore as his wife has aged very well. He was a master of physical comedy.
Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
Because we are not declining?
Setting aside the error bars on GDP growth a 0.1% fall is flat not “declining”
I think we have another case of Schrodingers economy, beating all our peers but destroyed by Reeves...
However, our spending and borrowing plans a couple of decades back were on the basis that we would be richer than this now.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
I'm aware the system - I should have worked out it might have applied here.
But this result shows its limitations. The vote margin was minute, and evidently the details of the contact were wrongly presented. (And there were perhaps some shenanigans around which aircraft offers made it to the final vote.)
The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.
The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.
And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.
People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
Epstein is trundling along. Let's see what gets released. If the "good stuff" doesn't get released by the DofJ, there will be patriotic citizens employed there who will leak copies.
Why would Trump destroy the DofJ if there was nothing to show?
The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.
The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.
And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.
People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
Sure. Let's see. But I recommend we don't get our hopes up regarding Trump damage.
I reckon that the thing that Trump might be worried about is - he was an informant against Epstein (Epstein seems to have thought this). And that there was an immunity deal.
Among the MAGA crowd, being an informant for the government sounds "weak". And an immunity deal would be an admission of guilt.
Would be dynamite. But I'm not expecting a revelation of that sort.
Given the legal protections for informing and the associated deals, this is one thing that could conceivably *not* leaked.
Any criminal evidence would have leaked long ago.
If I had a pound for every time I’d heard of a “Trump ending” piece of information being released…
Hope he’s celebrating with some jellied eels, mash and liquor with a sing song with Chas and Dave.
He really nailed that cockney accent didn't he.
I don't know if it was broadcast in the UK, but his sitcom from the early Sixties with Mary Tyler Moore as his wife has aged very well. He was a master of physical comedy.
Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
Because we are not declining?
Setting aside the error bars on GDP growth a 0.1% fall is flat not “declining”
Conservatives dead. Labour on the critical list. Thinking about voting bonkers?
Hope he’s celebrating with some jellied eels, mash and liquor with a sing song with Chas and Dave.
He really nailed that cockney accent didn't he.
I don't know if it was broadcast in the UK, but his sitcom from the early Sixties with Mary Tyler Moore as his wife has aged very well. He was a master of physical comedy.
He was yes. Song, dance, comedy. Extremely talented guy.
Still is, if a little more creaky.
And still sharp. Voted Harris last year.
Was a New Deal Democrat, as has never really changed. Endorsed Bernie, and backed Hillary when she got the nomination. One of the good guys - and had friends across the political spectrum.
I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.
What are they complaining about, exactly? The front page is all royal cancer or lack thereof (happily).
I wouldn't have had Dura down as a DM reader. I wonder if he's collecting vouchers for a special commerorative coin.
Dura is far more widely read than many of us here, I think.
Pravda and Isvestia in their original Russian. No doubt to confirn that Pravda has no truth and Isvestia has no news.
That old saw is a staple of Russian language exams because you have to remember that Pravda is singular and takes the prepositional case while Izvestiya (not Izvestia FFS. я = ya ) is plural and takes the instrumental.
In other certain and imminent victory for Ukraine news, Solovyov did his show from Krasnoarmeysk (or 'Pokrovsk' as the Ultras like to refer to it) last night and had very little good to say about the glacial pace of the SMO.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
It's the bare-faced 'couldn't-give-a-shit'ness of it that one has to admire.
Presidential candidates must submit a list of their prospective vice-presidents for sport, which must be selected from each of the FIA's six global regions.
But the world council list contains only one candidate from South America, Brazilian Fabiana Ecclestone - wife of former F1 boss Bernie. She is already a member of Ben Sulayem's team.
...the FIA said in a statement that the presidential election was a "structured and democractic process" to ensure "fairness and integrity at every stage".
“Some men just want to see the world burn” - various edgelord types take this to mean a kind of cool, total anarchy.
The reality is tosspots who can’t see a window without wanting to smash it.
Apparently zero tolerance policing is a bad thing though
Zero tolerance is stupid because you end up with arresting people for all kinds of minor stuff that shouldn’t be a crime.
“Broken Windows” policing involves quite a bit of discretion, incidently. In New York, it wasn’t just Lock Everyone Up. Though lots went to prison.
Harder to balance justice and mercy by discretion now that everyone can know everyone's business. There's often a good reason to punish X but not Y, but hard to explain in short terms.
Talking of which, an interesting straw in the wind that goes well beyond "Outrage as school enforces rules";
The school’s leadership has created a structured environment that can be positive for those who can navigate its strictures.
However, this same system is implemented with a rigidity and a lack of differentiation that does not protect the wellbeing of a vulnerable minority.
It's the bare-faced 'couldn't-give-a-shit'ness of it that one has to admire.
Presidential candidates must submit a list of their prospective vice-presidents for sport, which must be selected from each of the FIA's six global regions.
But the world council list contains only one candidate from South America, Brazilian Fabiana Ecclestone - wife of former F1 boss Bernie. She is already a member of Ben Sulayem's team.
...the FIA said in a statement that the presidential election was a "structured and democractic process" to ensure "fairness and integrity at every stage".
In the stacked field of horrid sports organisations the FIA will have to accept being in a poor second place to FIFA but their effort is noted.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.
Only a small % of the total population are volunteer activists of any sort. My guess it is about 10%. The culture has shifted for this group - which is millions strong of course - from politics to things like environment, nature, health, sport, culture, heritage, temporary single issue stuff, foodbanks, helping in schools. In totality religious volunteering remains substantial though much smaller than it once was.
The shift can be generalised as one from the general national political good, to the specific and identifiable and especially local good, where the effect and impact is clear.
One big reason for the modern difficulties is that when I was young the local voluntary world was run by middle class mothers who didn't work.
Now it is mostly run by retired middle class grandmothers
Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.
From “O Holy Night”:
Truly He taught us to love one another; His law is love and His gospel is peace. Chains shall He break, for the slave is our brother, and in His name all oppression shall cease.
Don’t know that Tommy will be too keen on those words!
The point about carols and hymns is not the sinner who is singing them but the words he is singing, which even in bad carols are remarkable.
Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.
Only a small % of the total population are volunteer activists of any sort. My guess it is about 10%. The culture has shifted for this group - which is millions strong of course - from politics to things like environment, nature, health, sport, culture, heritage, temporary single issue stuff, foodbanks, helping in schools. In totality religious volunteering remains substantial though much smaller than it once was.
The shift can be generalised as one from the general national political good, to the specific and identifiable and especially local good, where the effect and impact is clear.
One big reason for the modern difficulties is that when I was young the local voluntary world was run by middle class mothers who didn't work.
Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
Because we are not declining?
Setting aside the error bars on GDP growth a 0.1% fall is flat not “declining”
Remember that we get a 0,1% bounce back next year courtesy of the Land Rover production halt and restart.
Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.
Only a small % of the total population are volunteer activists of any sort. My guess it is about 10%. The culture has shifted for this group - which is millions strong of course - from politics to things like environment, nature, health, sport, culture, heritage, temporary single issue stuff, foodbanks, helping in schools. In totality religious volunteering remains substantial though much smaller than it once was.
The shift can be generalised as one from the general national political good, to the specific and identifiable and especially local good, where the effect and impact is clear.
One big reason for the modern difficulties is that when I was young the local voluntary world was run by middle class mothers who didn't work.
The challenge for any political organisation that experiences a rapid influx of new members is to identify and nurture those very small number among them who might go on to devote a huge amount of their spare time and energy to intense activism, and so in years and decades to come help grow their party’s reach. I know myself people who I signed up on the doorstep, who then went on to become councillors and mayors and who continued their activism even when they moved away to a new part of the country. None of that would have happened had they not been welcomed as new members and encouraged to get more involved. Both Reform and the Greens, and perhaps even Your Party, will be facing this challenge currently.
For the LibDems, Jo Grimond’s inspirational leadership of the Liberal Party back in the ‘60s brought many new people into the party who went on, during my period of activity, to become prominent in the party, and so multiply the impact of their recruitment down through the decades, and those people probably sowed the seeds that kept Britain’s third party alive through to the current day.
Sharp, warm and ruthlessly focused on national interest, she is the most formidable politician in Europe today…providing political stability after many had written her and Italy off.
A pleasure to see her again. A meeting of like minds!
Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.
I suspect even Reform members will mainly be contacted via emails. They won't have to spend that much money on stamps.
Here's one for PB's ICE apologist to get their teeth into.
Let's talk ONLY facts. Here are true statements only: Donna Hughes Brown is a legal resident of the United States of America. She came here legally almost 50 years ago and stayed here legally. She married a US Navy vet, and raised a son who became a United States Marine. Her brother was a Colonel in the US Army. This is a family that has given and given and given to the United States.
ICE grabbed her at the O'hare airport in Chicago in July, sent her to a detention facility in Kentucky, a detention facility which has been widely criticized for unsanitary conditions and medical neglect of detainees, and she has been there ever since.
The reason ICE gives? She wrote two bad checks by accident for a total of less than $80 over a decade ago. It was immediately caught, and she paid the difference in full. She's now looking at deportation.
If you support this, and I want to be abundantly clear here, you are not a patriot, you're a poser. Meanwhile a man defrauded the American public by pretending to raise money for veterans and then used the donations to fund his campaign and pay off legal debts to the damages of $2million and we elected him to be our president... https://x.com/TheTrueVanguard/status/1999194391672750521
I recall seeing this a while ago.
The issue is that her offence was technically sufficient to breach the terms of her green card. The US government is within its rights to deport her.
Now, of course, any rational and humane government would decide that she should be allowed to stay. But this is Trump’s administration we are dealing with.
Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
Because we are not declining?
Setting aside the error bars on GDP growth a 0.1% fall is flat not “declining”
I think we have another case of Schrodingers economy, beating all our peers but destroyed by Reeves...
An economy is like a supertanker.
The waves impact everyone, the steering the individual ship but it takes time for the effect to become apparent.
Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.
Only a small % of the total population are volunteer activists of any sort. My guess it is about 10%. The culture has shifted for this group - which is millions strong of course - from politics to things like environment, nature, health, sport, culture, heritage, temporary single issue stuff, foodbanks, helping in schools. In totality religious volunteering remains substantial though much smaller than it once was.
The shift can be generalised as one from the general national political good, to the specific and identifiable and especially local good, where the effect and impact is clear.
One big reason for the modern difficulties is that when I was young the local voluntary world was run by middle class mothers who didn't work.
My comment is that all of that list ARE politics.
Yes. More or less everything can be described as political. But not party political. They are do with the fact that humans are creatures who by character dwell in a polis or community, as Aristotle tells us, but the overlap between that and the politics of party is limited. Party politics finds it hard to escape finding difference or division; most of that which is political or pre-political (Stephen Clark's description) looks for the common good and is not interested in the conflict of ideas.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
But, then again, the Swiss manage to build infrastructure and housing. Certainly better than we manage.
The problem comes back things such as we can only build hideous mass estates and take 27 years to do that. As opposed to development that local people like and might even benefit them.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
But, then again, the Swiss manage to build infrastructure and housing. Certainly better than we manage.
The problem comes back things such as we can only build hideous mass estates and take 27 years to do that. As opposed to development that local people like and might even benefit them.
You get hideous mass estates in Switzerland too. If you are flying into Geneva from the west approach you will see the mass of soulless tower blocks. They get v antsy about building extra homes in their villages/communes too and each communal mayor has to balance out the need for housing for the young and being re-elected.
Sharp, warm and ruthlessly focused on national interest, she is the most formidable politician in Europe today…providing political stability after many had written her and Italy off.
A pleasure to see her again. A meeting of like minds!
The withering looks she gives to some leaders is a joy to behold
Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.
From “O Holy Night”:
Truly He taught us to love one another; His law is love and His gospel is peace. Chains shall He break, for the slave is our brother, and in His name all oppression shall cease.
Don’t know that Tommy will be too keen on those words!
The Bible is just the same. It's part of the reason why Tommy will go pop trying to quote-mine the OT to support his xenophobia. He has less credibility than Born Again Russell Brand.
eg Leviticus 19:33-34. "When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the Lord your God."
Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.
The bad kind of muppet. Christmas Carol
I went out with a Christmas Carol once. Well, she was called Carol because she was born on Christmas Eve. We used to say she was lucky not to be called Tree, or Present.
I dated a Holly once, also born at Christmas.
But my favourite was a very pukka retired RAF fighter pilot named Valentine, born 14th Feb. A certain nominative determinism there I think.
Surely more appropriate if he had been born November 14th?
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
But, then again, the Swiss manage to build infrastructure and housing. Certainly better than we manage.
The problem comes back things such as we can only build hideous mass estates and take 27 years to do that. As opposed to development that local people like and might even benefit them.
You get hideous mass estates in Switzerland too. If you are flying into Geneva from the west approach you will see the mass of soulless tower blocks. They get v antsy about building extra homes in their villages/communes too and each communal mayor has to balance out the need for housing for the young and being re-elected.
Sure - but overall their system seems to do better than lawfare NIMBYism.
One thing I would like to try is infrastructure led development, in the UK.
Build the new GPs surgery, schools, train station etc etc *first*. Then layout the new roads and sell the plots.
That way the locals get the tangible benefits upfront.
I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.
What are they complaining about, exactly? The front page is all royal cancer or lack thereof (happily).
I wouldn't have had Dura down as a DM reader. I wonder if he's collecting vouchers for a special commerorative coin.
Dura is far more widely read than many of us here, I think.
Pravda and Isvestia in their original Russian. No doubt to confirn that Pravda has no truth and Isvestia has no news.
That old saw is a staple of Russian language exams because you have to remember that Pravda is singular and takes the prepositional case while Izvestiya (not Izvestia FFS. я = ya ) is plural and takes the instrumental.
Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.
From “O Holy Night”:
Truly He taught us to love one another; His law is love and His gospel is peace. Chains shall He break, for the slave is our brother, and in His name all oppression shall cease.
Don’t know that Tommy will be too keen on those words!
The Bible is just the same. It's part of the reason why Tommy will go pop trying to quote-mine the OT to support his xenophobia. He has less credibility than Born Again Russell Brand.
eg Leviticus 19:33-34. "When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the Lord your God."
Talking about Christmas spirit, two men arrested in relation to the Shotton Tree.
I hadn't realised it was/is* a living tree, a permanent feature of the local scene planted a decade ago to honour the Great War dead, rather than the usual thinned-out surplus from the nearest plantation.
Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.
The bad kind of muppet. Christmas Carol
I went out with a Christmas Carol once. Well, she was called Carol because she was born on Christmas Eve. We used to say she was lucky not to be called Tree, or Present.
I dated a Holly once, also born at Christmas.
But my favourite was a very pukka retired RAF fighter pilot named Valentine, born 14th Feb. A certain nominative determinism there I think.
Surely more appropriate if he had been born November 14th?
I was born on 25th September. I guess I was lucky not to be named Father Christmas.
Here's one for PB's ICE apologist to get their teeth into.
Let's talk ONLY facts. Here are true statements only: Donna Hughes Brown is a legal resident of the United States of America. She came here legally almost 50 years ago and stayed here legally. She married a US Navy vet, and raised a son who became a United States Marine. Her brother was a Colonel in the US Army. This is a family that has given and given and given to the United States.
ICE grabbed her at the O'hare airport in Chicago in July, sent her to a detention facility in Kentucky, a detention facility which has been widely criticized for unsanitary conditions and medical neglect of detainees, and she has been there ever since.
The reason ICE gives? She wrote two bad checks by accident for a total of less than $80 over a decade ago. It was immediately caught, and she paid the difference in full. She's now looking at deportation.
If you support this, and I want to be abundantly clear here, you are not a patriot, you're a poser. Meanwhile a man defrauded the American public by pretending to raise money for veterans and then used the donations to fund his campaign and pay off legal debts to the damages of $2million and we elected him to be our president... https://x.com/TheTrueVanguard/status/1999194391672750521
I recall seeing this a while ago.
The issue is that her offence was technically sufficient to breach the terms of her green card. The US government is within its rights to deport her.
Now, of course, any rational and humane government would decide that she should be allowed to stay. But this is Trump’s administration we are dealing with.
The rhetoric is all about "the worst of the worst" - rapists; murderers; drug traffickers; the criminally insane etc.
The reality is literally anyone for whom they can find a technical reason to deport; often law abiding residents for decades.
It's the bare-faced 'couldn't-give-a-shit'ness of it that one has to admire.
Presidential candidates must submit a list of their prospective vice-presidents for sport, which must be selected from each of the FIA's six global regions.
But the world council list contains only one candidate from South America, Brazilian Fabiana Ecclestone - wife of former F1 boss Bernie. She is already a member of Ben Sulayem's team.
...the FIA said in a statement that the presidential election was a "structured and democractic process" to ensure "fairness and integrity at every stage".
In the stacked field of horrid sports organisations the FIA will have to accept being in a poor second place to FIFA but their effort is noted.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
Although I appreciate we are still a little ways off, I thought I would pop on here to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a good festive period. I am winding down my posting for a bit now, in all likelihood until after the New Year. As usual it is a busy time of year, and without getting into specifics (but nothing ominous), particularly so for me this year. While politics is relatively quiet, now is the time for me to sign off for a bit. Best wishes to you all.
It would appear that EITHER Belarus is moving away from Russia OR the USA is relaxing its attitude.
That sounds a little parallel to developments around the relationship between Transnistria and Moldova in recent months, brought on by various factors such as Ukraine cutting the gas pipeline.
And also perhaps increasing isolation of Kaliningrad from Russia.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
It's the bare-faced 'couldn't-give-a-shit'ness of it that one has to admire.
Presidential candidates must submit a list of their prospective vice-presidents for sport, which must be selected from each of the FIA's six global regions.
But the world council list contains only one candidate from South America, Brazilian Fabiana Ecclestone - wife of former F1 boss Bernie. She is already a member of Ben Sulayem's team.
...the FIA said in a statement that the presidential election was a "structured and democractic process" to ensure "fairness and integrity at every stage".
In the stacked field of horrid sports organisations the FIA will have to accept being in a poor second place to FIFA but their effort is noted.
The IOC says hello.
The FA are pretty bad, although it's incompetence rather than corruption that is the problem.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
That's clearly not the full story because they are doing dramatically better than neighbours like the Czech Republic.
First, when I look at them, I don’t see much evidence of gerrymandering. There aren’t any of the weird shapes that often accompany successful gerrymanders.
Second, I don’t see much room for gerrymanders, by either party. Greedy Republicans might gain 1 by changing the 1st district; Democrats could — probably — gain 1 by splitting the 7th (Indianapolis) in two.
The cube rule or cube law is an empirical observation regarding elections under the first-past-the-post system. The rule suggests that the party getting the most votes is over-represented (and conversely, the party getting the fewest votes is under-represented). It was first formulated in a report on British elections in 1909, then extended to elections in other countries. Both in theory and in practice, the cube rule is only applicable in a two-party system. In a multi-party democracy operating under the first-past-the-post system, the cube law invariably fails, often leading to capricious results.
Fourth — and here I am speculating a little bit — in the United States Democrats are handicapped in districting by their tendency to cluster. If you were to use a software program to draw districts (which I favor in principle), it would probably result in Republican gains.
Although I appreciate we are still a little ways off, I thought I would pop on here to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a good festive period. I am winding down my posting for a bit now, in all likelihood until after the New Year. As usual it is a busy time of year, and without getting into specifics (but nothing ominous), particularly so for me this year. While politics is relatively quiet, now is the time for me to sign off for a bit. Best wishes to you all.
Best wishes for the season.
We are shortly hosting the annual pre-xmas friends dinner as has been a tradition for thirty-odd years. This always marks for me the beginning of Xmas as we put the tree etc up ready for the guests.
I'll be making a rich festive veggie shepherds pie.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
That's clearly not the full story because they are doing dramatically better than neighbours like the Czech Republic.
Czechia, of course, famously left a larger political and economic union before later joining the EU. Perhaps they would’ve done better if not for that.
We should also differentiate between members who pay their subs and that's all, and active members who do crazy stuff like attending meetings, delivering leaflets, canvassing and, if they are totally bonkers, stand for election.
The vast majority of Labour members are in the first category.
Thats true of pretty much all parties.
I don't think membership numbers matter much in a world where elections are won by keyboard warriors, including those overseas.
Just look at last years election for example where a number of candidates who did no campaigning got thousands of votes.
We saw it to at the locals where quite a few paper candidates got elected as Reform councillors.
I've always been highly sceptical of what is achieved by the 'ground game', especially at General Elections.
For locals, it can sway a few results at the margins, but as we see every year, the overall change in seats just follows national opinion poll trends.
One reason why I can't be arsed door knocking.
Up to a point. If a party regards a seat as hopeless they don't bother to assign volunteers there, and people notice, and reduce the share of the vote accordingly to 3% or so. Conversely a determined effort can overcome skepticism - I wasn't expected to win Broxtowe in 1997 and party didn't bother to make an effort, but by coming over every weekend for 9 months, mostly canvassing on my own (I was working in Switzerland at the time) we managed a swing of over 12%. By 2010 when I finally lost it was a super-marginal, with a gap of 0.7% vs 16% in 1992, although the national result was similar: a Tory lead of 7% in both 1992 and 2010.
First, when I look at them, I don’t see much evidence of gerrymandering. There aren’t any of the weird shapes that often accompany successful gerrymanders.
Second, I don’t see much room for gerrymanders, by either party. Greedy Republicans might gain 1 by changing the 1st district; Democrats could — probably — gain 1 by splitting the 7th (Indianapolis) in two.
The cube rule or cube law is an empirical observation regarding elections under the first-past-the-post system. The rule suggests that the party getting the most votes is over-represented (and conversely, the party getting the fewest votes is under-represented). It was first formulated in a report on British elections in 1909, then extended to elections in other countries. Both in theory and in practice, the cube rule is only applicable in a two-party system. In a multi-party democracy operating under the first-past-the-post system, the cube law invariably fails, often leading to capricious results.
Fourth — and here I am speculating a little bit — in the United States Democrats are handicapped in districting by their tendency to cluster. If you were to use a software program to draw districts (which I favor in principle), it would probably result in Republican gains.
But the rejected redistricting would have been gerrymandered:
Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.
From “O Holy Night”:
Truly He taught us to love one another; His law is love and His gospel is peace. Chains shall He break, for the slave is our brother, and in His name all oppression shall cease.
Don’t know that Tommy will be too keen on those words!
The Bible is just the same. It's part of the reason why Tommy will go pop trying to quote-mine the OT to support his xenophobia. He has less credibility than Born Again Russell Brand.
eg Leviticus 19:33-34. "When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the Lord your God."
Hence the glow around Zack. Not so much a politician but He who has returned.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
That's clearly not the full story because they are doing dramatically better than neighbours like the Czech Republic.
Czechia, of course, famously left a larger political and economic union before later joining the EU. Perhaps they would’ve done better if not for that.
We should also differentiate between members who pay their subs and that's all, and active members who do crazy stuff like attending meetings, delivering leaflets, canvassing and, if they are totally bonkers, stand for election.
The vast majority of Labour members are in the first category.
Thats true of pretty much all parties.
I don't think membership numbers matter much in a world where elections are won by keyboard warriors, including those overseas.
Just look at last years election for example where a number of candidates who did no campaigning got thousands of votes.
We saw it to at the locals where quite a few paper candidates got elected as Reform councillors.
I've always been highly sceptical of what is achieved by the 'ground game', especially at General Elections.
For locals, it can sway a few results at the margins, but as we see every year, the overall change in seats just follows national opinion poll trends.
One reason why I can't be arsed door knocking.
Up to a point. If a party regards a seat as hopeless they don't bother to assign volunteers there, and people notice, and reduce the share of the vote accordingly to 3% or so. Conversely a determined effort can overcome skepticism - I wasn't expected to win Broxtowe in 1997 and party didn't bother to make an effort, but by coming over every weekend for 9 months, mostly canvassing on my own (I was working in Switzerland at the time) we managed a swing of over 12%. By 2010 when I finally lost it was a super-marginal, with a gap of 0.7% vs 16% in 1992, although the national result was similar: a Tory lead of 7% in both 1992 and 2010.
First, when I look at them, I don’t see much evidence of gerrymandering. There aren’t any of the weird shapes that often accompany successful gerrymanders.
Second, I don’t see much room for gerrymanders, by either party. Greedy Republicans might gain 1 by changing the 1st district; Democrats could — probably — gain 1 by splitting the 7th (Indianapolis) in two.
The cube rule or cube law is an empirical observation regarding elections under the first-past-the-post system. The rule suggests that the party getting the most votes is over-represented (and conversely, the party getting the fewest votes is under-represented). It was first formulated in a report on British elections in 1909, then extended to elections in other countries. Both in theory and in practice, the cube rule is only applicable in a two-party system. In a multi-party democracy operating under the first-past-the-post system, the cube law invariably fails, often leading to capricious results.
Fourth — and here I am speculating a little bit — in the United States Democrats are handicapped in districting by their tendency to cluster. If you were to use a software program to draw districts (which I favor in principle), it would probably result in Republican gains.
But the rejected redistricting would have been gerrymandered:
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
An investment in defeating completely Putin's mad and desperate invasion - as opposed to just helping them survive - would pay enormous future dividends.
The future cost of a stalemate on Russia's/Trump's terms would be correspondingly large.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
Certainly the combination of the public wanting radical change and the only people promising it being chancers and fantasists puts our politics in an unhealthy place.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
An investment in defeating completely Putin's mad and desperate invasion - as opposed to just helping them survive - would pay enormous future dividends.
The future cost of a stalemate on Russia's/Trump's terms would be correspondingly large.
There would be nothing more infuriating to Russian irredentists than “losing” a huge “Slavic” population to “European values”.
So the flip side of this will be generations of hostility.
Part of the problem with the “Realist”’ position on Ukraine is that the Russian Ultranationalists see anything but Ukraine being a colony of Russia (if not an actual part of) as an unacceptable defeat.
See Putin declaring that any government in Kyiv is fundamentally illegitimate and can’t be dealt with.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
It would need a treaty change to get them in due to their mind-bending levels of corruption and poverty that are a million verst (genitive plural, don't fuck it up) from the accession criteria. They couldn't be finessed in like Greece and while a treaty change is theoretically possible... Fico, Orban, Italian Fash Karen, etc.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
An investment in defeating completely Putin's mad and desperate invasion - as opposed to just helping them survive - would pay enormous future dividends.
The future cost of a stalemate on Russia's/Trump's terms would be correspondingly large.
It could also be very destabilising because of the effect on politically important sectors like French agriculture.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
It would need a treaty change to get them in due to their mind-bending levels of corruption and poverty that are a million verst (genitive plural, don't fuck it up) from the accession criteria. They couldn't be finessed in like Greece and while a treaty change is theoretically possible... Fico, Orban, Italian Fash Karen, etc.
But, as with other countries, they could be brought closer to Europe over time, with EU help to deal with the corruption and the poverty, until they did meet the accession criteria.
BenPointer: The Indiana legislature followed the advice of Mitch Daniels:
I have kept almost entirely quiet about matters of partisan politics ever since leaving elective office more than a dozen years ago. But watching the national drive to redraw congressional district lines mid-decade prompts a temporary departure from my bleacher seat. My home state of Indiana is on the national Republican target list for new lines, as part of the quest to ensure continued control of the House. While the outcome sought is one I support, the tactic being employed to get there is not, and I hope earnestly that my state’s leaders will politely decline to participate.
The recent actions in Texas and North Carolina are not without precedent, but almost. Aside from court-ordered redraws in 1960s Georgia and 1990s North Carolina, exceptions to the long-established custom of decennial, post-census redistricting have been very rare. The most flagrant example of out-of-cycle gerrymandering was — here’s a surprise — the work of Illinois Democrats in the 1980s.
Not subspecies. Those animals belong in at least two mammalian [edit] orders - just look at the snouts for a start.
AI is shite, no. 647.
My Haggis is the English subspecies.
Oh, I don't doubt that. But that movie shows one subspecies more in common with rabbits (I think) edit: or possibly guinea pigs than anything else, and another which gives me echidna vibes (from memory, spending a day watching the monotremes and marsupials in Sydney zoo). But the snow hides the toes, and there are no genital or dental shots ...
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
Certainly the combination of the public wanting radical change and the only people promising it being chancers and fantasists puts our politics in an unhealthy place.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
Certainly the combination of the public wanting radical change and the only people promising it being chancers and fantasists puts our politics in an unhealthy place.
Does 'radical change' quite capture the mood? It seems to me that the public on the whole want a maximum possible return to the sorts of norms and expectations that were common not all that long ago. This involves stuff like house prices, social housing, job opportunities, decent provision of collective services like NHS, less ludicrous chains of student debt for the aspirational, a responsive police and other emergency services, low inflation, gradual increasing prosperity, a benefit system that doesn't take the mickey of workers, secure borders.
None of this is radical at all. It's boringly ordinary.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
Certainly the combination of the public wanting radical change and the only people promising it being chancers and fantasists puts our politics in an unhealthy place.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
Certainly the combination of the public wanting radical change and the only people promising it being chancers and fantasists puts our politics in an unhealthy place.
Does 'radical change' quite capture the mood? It seems to me that the public on the whole want a maximum possible return to the sorts of norms and expectations that were common not all that long ago. This involves stuff like house prices, social housing, job opportunities, decent provision of collective services like NHS, less ludicrous chains of student debt for the aspirational, a responsive police and other emergency services, low inflation, gradual increasing prosperity, a benefit system that doesn't take the mickey of workers, secure borders.
None of this is radical at all. It's boringly ordinary.
Not to mention a government that can actually do things & prioritises the law/rule abiding over the criminals.
Not subspecies. Those animals belong in at least two mammalian [edit] orders - just look at the snouts for a start.
AI is shite, no. 647.
My Haggis is the English subspecies.
Oh, I don't doubt that. But that movie shows one subspecies more in common with rabbits (I think) edit: or possibly guinea pigs than anything else, and another which gives me echidna vibes (from memory, spending a day watching the monotremes and marsupials in Sydney zoo). But the snow hides the toes, and there are no genital or dental shots ...
Echidnas, for those who don’t know, have a cloaca, rather than a separate anus, urethra and vagina, as placental mammals have.
(I explained this as a ~10-year old at a school “show and tell” in North Carolina. The reaction was somewhat muted.)
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
It would need a treaty change to get them in due to their mind-bending levels of corruption and poverty that are a million verst (genitive plural, don't fuck it up) from the accession criteria. They couldn't be finessed in like Greece and while a treaty change is theoretically possible... Fico, Orban, Italian Fash Karen, etc.
The irony of the most corrupt government in the EU seeking to block any progress with Ukraine's prospective membership isn't lost on me.
Postwar, there will be a new government, and there is certainly the appetite for both reform and EU membership. It was, after all, the latter which motivated mad Vlad's land grab and attempted decapitation of Ukraine's leadership.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
It would need a treaty change to get them in due to their mind-bending levels of corruption and poverty that are a million verst (genitive plural, don't fuck it up) from the accession criteria. They couldn't be finessed in like Greece and while a treaty change is theoretically possible... Fico, Orban, Italian Fash Karen, etc.
But, as with other countries, they could be brought closer to Europe over time, with EU help to deal with the corruption and the poverty, until they did meet the accession criteria.
They should go in the Commonwealth, they'll take any fucker. DJT and VVP have both never heard of it so it won't give them the arsehole.
Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.
From “O Holy Night”:
Truly He taught us to love one another; His law is love and His gospel is peace. Chains shall He break, for the slave is our brother, and in His name all oppression shall cease.
Don’t know that Tommy will be too keen on those words!
The Bible is just the same. It's part of the reason why Tommy will go pop trying to quote-mine the OT to support his xenophobia. He has less credibility than Born Again Russell Brand.
eg Leviticus 19:33-34. "When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the Lord your God."
Hence the glow around Zack. Not so much a politician but He who has returned.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
An investment in defeating completely Putin's mad and desperate invasion - as opposed to just helping them survive - would pay enormous future dividends.
The future cost of a stalemate on Russia's/Trump's terms would be correspondingly large.
It could also be very destabilising because of the effect on politically important sectors like French agriculture.
I'm not sure why that's a concern for you ?
In any event, there's majority public support in France for Ukraine's membership aspirations.
Not subspecies. Those animals belong in at least two mammalian [edit] orders - just look at the snouts for a start.
AI is shite, no. 647.
My Haggis is the English subspecies.
Oh, I don't doubt that. But that movie shows one subspecies more in common with rabbits (I think) edit: or possibly guinea pigs than anything else, and another which gives me echidna vibes (from memory, spending a day watching the monotremes and marsupials in Sydney zoo). But the snow hides the toes, and there are no genital or dental shots ...
Echidnas, for those who don’t know, have a cloaca, rather than a separate anus, urethra and vagina, as placental mammals have.
(I explained this as a ~10-year old at a school “show and tell” in North Carolina. The reaction was somewhat muted.)
It is good that that is not the mammalian biology.
The stock of Anglo-Saxon insults would be severely impoverished.
Though I imagine that in ancient Rome some people were branded as a "Cloaca Maxima".
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
That's clearly not the full story because they are doing dramatically better than neighbours like the Czech Republic.
Czechia, of course, famously left a larger political and economic union before later joining the EU. Perhaps they would’ve done better if not for that.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
It would need a treaty change to get them in due to their mind-bending levels of corruption and poverty that are a million verst (genitive plural, don't fuck it up) from the accession criteria. They couldn't be finessed in like Greece and while a treaty change is theoretically possible... Fico, Orban, Italian Fash Karen, etc.
But, as with other countries, they could be brought closer to Europe over time, with EU help to deal with the corruption and the poverty, until they did meet the accession criteria.
They should go in the Commonwealth, they'll take any fucker. DJT and VVP have both never heard of it so it won't give them the arsehole.
Our medals totals at the Commonwealth games would suffer pretty badly.
Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
Because we are not declining?
Setting aside the error bars on GDP growth a 0.1% fall is flat not “declining”
I think we have another case of Schrodingers economy, beating all our peers but destroyed by Reeves...
Not a surprise or a shock, Europe has been failing for decades.
Its why we were right to leave the failing institution.
We need to do better than our peers. Freed from the shackles of being EU members, we just might, but it depends upon us doing the right things.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
Certainly the combination of the public wanting radical change and the only people promising it being chancers and fantasists puts our politics in an unhealthy place.
I hadn't realised that Switzerland holds referendums on these deals.
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase. https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490 "The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
IIRC you can hold a referendum on any action of the Swiss government or law. Just need to get enough signatures on a petition.
I think it is a good system.
It's a system where almost nothing ever gets decided. Maybe sclerosis is underestimated. The word is normally used as an insult around here.
I mean that seriously. So there's a big debate about whether to do something. Either there's an eventual vote where the people decide not to bother, or it's already been put in the too difficult basket because proponents know it's never going to pass. People accept no change because it's their collective choice. Switzerland is a haven for small c conservatives, which is maybe not a bad thing in a chaotic world.
Certainly the combination of the public wanting radical change and the only people promising it being chancers and fantasists puts our politics in an unhealthy place.
Does 'radical change' quite capture the mood? It seems to me that the public on the whole want a maximum possible return to the sorts of norms and expectations that were common not all that long ago. This involves stuff like house prices, social housing, job opportunities, decent provision of collective services like NHS, less ludicrous chains of student debt for the aspirational, a responsive police and other emergency services, low inflation, gradual increasing prosperity, a benefit system that doesn't take the mickey of workers, secure borders.
None of this is radical at all. It's boringly ordinary.
Good question. But I'm presuming there's more than that going on with "roll the dice" on the populist right/left polling at nearly 50%.
Course another thing about Desire For Change is people have different ideas of what it should entail. Maybe all it really means is wouldn't it be great if the government were to fix everything and if they'd listen to me they could.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
It would need a treaty change to get them in due to their mind-bending levels of corruption and poverty that are a million verst (genitive plural, don't fuck it up) from the accession criteria. They couldn't be finessed in like Greece and while a treaty change is theoretically possible... Fico, Orban, Italian Fash Karen, etc.
The irony of the most corrupt government in the EU seeking to block any progress with Ukraine's prospective membership isn't lost on me.
Postwar, there will be a new government, and there is certainly the appetite for both reform and EU membership. It was, after all, the latter which motivated mad Vlad's land grab and attempted decapitation of Ukraine's leadership.
There is also a stridently anti-EU strand of Ukro-nationalism which Z Man has to keep onside in the Rada as the internal coalition of Servant of the People has disintegrated. One of the reasons he unsuccessfully attempted to take the anti-corruption authorities under direct presidential control was that they were perceived to be tentacles of the EU. Well, that and trying to save old mates Yermak and Mindich.
Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.
What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
Is this not in phases?
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
One reason that a chunk of German politicians are quite keen on integrating Ukraine into the EU system is that that EU investment in Ukraine as it comes up to speed will provide a huge opportunity for German companies. Much as the development of Poland (and other Eastern European countries) did.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
Ukraine's integration into Europe would be if huge benefit, both economically to both parties, and for the security of both.
It would need a treaty change to get them in due to their mind-bending levels of corruption and poverty that are a million verst (genitive plural, don't fuck it up) from the accession criteria. They couldn't be finessed in like Greece and while a treaty change is theoretically possible... Fico, Orban, Italian Fash Karen, etc.
The irony of the most corrupt government in the EU seeking to block any progress with Ukraine's prospective membership isn't lost on me.
Postwar, there will be a new government, and there is certainly the appetite for both reform and EU membership. It was, after all, the latter which motivated mad Vlad's land grab and attempted decapitation of Ukraine's leadership.
There is also a stridently anti-EU strand of Ukro-nationalism which Z Man has to keep onside in the Rada as the internal coalition of Servant of the People has disintegrated. One of the reasons he unsuccessfully attempted to take the anti-corruption authorities under direct presidential control was that they were perceived to be tentacles of the EU. Well, that and trying to save old mates Yermak and Mindich.
So what ? After the war there will be a new government, and it's pretty clear what the majority want.
Comments
Switzerland will no longer buy 36 F-35As after its claim that Bern would pay a fixed price for the contract was rejected by Washington. It will now buy fewer aircraft, but within the 6 billion Swiss Franc framework allocated. They have not yet said how many they will purchase.
https://x.com/Rotorfocus/status/1999491624293011490
"The Federal Council and the Parliament had approved the purchase at a cost of 6 billion CHF."
It was a tight referendum
For: 50.13
Against: 49.87
https://x.com/MattEmanuelP97/status/1999610041830080911
Among the MAGA crowd, being an informant for the government sounds "weak". And an immunity deal would be an admission of guilt.
Setting aside the error bars on GDP growth a 0.1% fall is flat not “declining”
https://youtu.be/jNXxWXBShFk?si=IeBtR87cFEF8mMpP
Used to be that construction in the UK was full of people with a bad history. Scaffolders got their rep, because they would employ anyone who was a bit of a hard character (tough job).
I suppose it's nice that we check. But it creates a class of the unemployable. And employment is a proven, critical factor in re-offending.
Because its advantageous for poorer countries to have greater economic integration with richer countries and for those richer countries to transfer wealth to the poorer countries.
Its a lot less advantageous for the richer countries.
I think it is a good system.
Since we aren't, there's a problem.
But this result shows its limitations. The vote margin was minute, and evidently the details of the contact were wrongly presented.
(And there were perhaps some shenanigans around which aircraft offers made it to the final vote.)
Any criminal evidence would have leaked long ago.
If I had a pound for every time I’d heard of a “Trump ending” piece of information being released…
“Broken Windows” policing involves quite a bit of discretion, incidently. In New York, it wasn’t just Lock Everyone Up. Though lots went to prison.
Labour on the critical list.
Thinking about voting bonkers?
We don’t have your confidence.
Endorsed Bernie, and backed Hillary when she got the nomination. One of the good guys - and had friends across the political spectrum.
Difficult balance to strike.
Being ineffective or a jack booted thug is so much easier.
In other certain and imminent victory for Ukraine news, Solovyov did his show from Krasnoarmeysk (or 'Pokrovsk' as the Ultras like to refer to it) last night and had very little good to say about the glacial pace of the SMO.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c4geezgewrvo
Presidential candidates must submit a list of their prospective vice-presidents for sport, which must be selected from each of the FIA's six global regions.
But the world council list contains only one candidate from South America, Brazilian Fabiana Ecclestone - wife of former F1 boss Bernie. She is already a member of Ben Sulayem's team.
...the FIA said in a statement that the presidential election was a "structured and democractic process" to ensure "fairness and integrity at every stage".
Talking of which, an interesting straw in the wind that goes well beyond "Outrage as school enforces rules";
The school’s leadership has created a structured environment that can be positive for those who can navigate its strictures.
However, this same system is implemented with a rigidity and a lack of differentiation that does not protect the wellbeing of a vulnerable minority.
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/mossbourne-success-of-high-performing-school-achieved-at-too-high-a-cost-for-some-pupils/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDRLKbNqyyI
(I have one in the freezer, that is just that shape.)
For the LibDems, Jo Grimond’s inspirational leadership of the Liberal Party back in the ‘60s brought many new people into the party who went on, during my period of activity, to become prominent in the party, and so multiply the impact of their recruitment down through the decades, and those people probably sowed the seeds that kept Britain’s third party alive through to the current day.
Giorgia Meloni is a force of nature.
Sharp, warm and ruthlessly focused on national interest, she is the most formidable politician in Europe today…providing political stability after many had written her and Italy off.
A pleasure to see her again. A meeting of like minds!
The issue is that her offence was technically sufficient to breach the terms of her green card. The US government is within its rights to deport her.
Now, of course, any rational and humane government would decide that she should be allowed to stay. But this is Trump’s administration we are dealing with.
The waves impact everyone, the steering the individual ship but it takes time for the effect to become apparent.
The problem comes back things such as we can only build hideous mass estates and take 27 years to do that. As opposed to development that local people like and might even benefit them.
AI is shite, no. 647.
eg Leviticus 19:33-34.
"When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the Lord your God."
One thing I would like to try is infrastructure led development, in the UK.
Build the new GPs surgery, schools, train station etc etc *first*. Then layout the new roads and sell the plots.
That way the locals get the tangible benefits upfront.
I hadn't realised it was/is* a living tree, a permanent feature of the local scene planted a decade ago to honour the Great War dead, rather than the usual thinned-out surplus from the nearest plantation.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/dec/13/two-men-arrested-after-christmas-tree-in-durham-village-chopped-down-hours-after-lights-switched-on
*The stump, anyway.
The reality is literally anyone for whom they can find a technical reason to deport; often law abiding residents for decades.
The early years were initial rebound from communism. Then influx of especially German companies after lower cost manufacture. Then continued growth sustained by heavy EU investment in infrastructure.
A rough Google AI estimate of EU institutional investment in Poland is 12 billion Euro per annum over the period 2004 to 2023. On a GDP growing from 250 to 800 billion Euro over the period, that is a major underpinning.
And also perhaps increasing isolation of Kaliningrad from Russia.
Pre war, there was massive investment going on - remember the dislocations in apparently Western European products, due to components from Ukraine not being there anymore?
https://x.com/stefanfschubert/status/1997092082205196704
Some remarks on the House districts in Indiana:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana's_congressional_districts
First, when I look at them, I don’t see much evidence of gerrymandering. There aren’t any of the weird shapes that often accompany successful gerrymanders.
Second, I don’t see much room for gerrymanders, by either party. Greedy Republicans might gain 1 by changing the 1st district; Democrats could — probably — gain 1 by splitting the 7th (Indianapolis) in two.
Third, the 7-2 division is about what I would expect, given the cube rule:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cube_rule Fourth — and here I am speculating a little bit — in the United States Democrats are handicapped in districting by their tendency to cluster. If you were to use a software program to draw districts (which I favor in principle), it would probably result in Republican gains.
We are shortly hosting the annual pre-xmas friends dinner as has been a tradition for thirty-odd years. This always marks for me the beginning of Xmas as we put the tree etc up ready for the guests.
I'll be making a rich festive veggie shepherds pie.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broxtowe_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
But the rejected redistricting would have been gerrymandered:
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/house-rating-changes-following-tn-7-special-plus-updates-on-indiana-redistricting-and-the-overall-house-map/
And of course at local level, last May plenty of Reform paper candidates found themselves elected by accident in wards that were not being targeted.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/house-rating-changes-following-tn-7-special-plus-updates-on-indiana-redistricting-and-the-overall-house-map/
An investment in defeating completely Putin's mad and desperate invasion - as opposed to just helping them survive - would pay enormous future dividends.
The future cost of a stalemate on Russia's/Trump's terms would be correspondingly large.
So the flip side of this will be generations of hostility.
Part of the problem with the “Realist”’ position on Ukraine is that the Russian Ultranationalists see anything but Ukraine being a colony of Russia (if not an actual part of) as an unacceptable defeat.
See Putin declaring that any government in Kyiv is fundamentally illegitimate and can’t be dealt with.
Daniels is a remarkable man: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Daniels
None of this is radical at all. It's boringly ordinary.
(I explained this as a ~10-year old at a school “show and tell” in North Carolina. The reaction was somewhat muted.)
Postwar, there will be a new government, and there is certainly the appetite for both reform and EU membership.
It was, after all, the latter which motivated mad Vlad's land grab and attempted decapitation of Ukraine's leadership.
In any event, there's majority public support in France for Ukraine's membership aspirations.
The stock of Anglo-Saxon insults would be severely impoverished.
Though I imagine that in ancient Rome some people were branded as a "Cloaca Maxima".
(Who put "show and tell" into UK driving tests?)
Its why we were right to leave the failing institution.
We need to do better than our peers. Freed from the shackles of being EU members, we just might, but it depends upon us doing the right things.
Course another thing about Desire For Change is people have different ideas of what it should entail. Maybe all it really means is wouldn't it be great if the government were to fix everything and if they'd listen to me they could.
After the war there will be a new government, and it's pretty clear what the majority want.