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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori April Political Monitor is out
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori April Political Monitor is out
Labour will be delighted that the budget bounce other pollsters have shown hasn’t happened here as their share of the vote is up 2 and their lead has doubled from 3 to 6.
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By the way, did anyone see Jon Snow's pathetic attempt to smear Nigel Farage as a racist on Ch4 yesterday?
It was along the lines of "I hesitate to use the word black in conversation with you, but isn't this a bit like the pot calling the kettle black?"
EDIT: Here is the clip.. its at 7:45 and I amaze myself with my memory!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTo5cfaUSNA
There’s also a boost George Osborne whose approval is the best for a Tory Chancellor since Nigel Lawson in 1987, which was followed by a Tory landslide a few months later.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timwigmore/100267244/until-cameron-champions-parliamentary-recall-voters-will-keep-running-to-ukip/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Clearly great minds think alike.
@Carnyx said:
"I'm not nearly as worried as you are, in one sense anyway, as a lot of the stuff in the media is obviously deliberate disinformation.
Irrespective of the personal proclivities and language of PBers, what is becoming very obvious is that the No Campaign have been orchestrating/encouraging lots of mostly made up/biased stories about nasty cybernats in recent weeks. And Labour activists have started talking (again) about the danger of violence [emended to amend memory hiccup], as well as Labour MPs making up stories about their offices being vandalised. I was criticised here for posting Wings over Scotland's analysus of this last, and the Scotsman's resulting first page story (which BTW did not make the Herald, which still has some pretensions to quality, and that is very significant). But the point was that if the No campaign can seemingly make up frnt page stories about some old neds' spray slogans and the odd Yes sticker on the window, then what does that say about their morality, truthfulness, and reliability more generally?"
...................................................................................................
Thank you for that enlightening and utterly disinterested analysis or as others far less charitable than I might put it - getting your excuses in early.
Meanwhile, I have piled on Poults. I have a dreadful record in golf betting so avoid him unless you like losing money.
That's an outrageous slur, and just after that Labour leaflet too. The centre-left establishment is clearly getting panicked by UKIP's rise and is just trying to throw as much dirt at them as they can.
I'm sorry I can't amend the thread header as I'm off into a meeting for a bit and Mike is also busy.
SNP: 44.9 (+0.3) List: 40.6 (+0.7)
Labour: 32.1 (-1.9) List: 25.1 (-3.1)
Conservative: 13.5 (+0.5) List:12.2 (+1.1)
Liberal Democrats: 5.7(+0.7) List: 9.0 (+2.3)
Greens: List: 7.3 (-1.1)
http://tinyurl.com/p939kn3
Perhaps a hint for Bettertogether and the PB Eunuchs, attacking the SNP & Salmond while hoping SLAB and their voters will save you isn't really much of a strategy.
Free bet in play to £10 - though the offer will be gone now.
It was only yesterday, I believe, that people on here were saying UKIP don't come under the same scrutiny as the other three parties wasnt it?
Luckily enough he batted it away without a problem
Why do people always play the race card when they are losing an argument? So last century!
The only thing I'd take issue with is his phrase "just how far Labour has fallen in the four years since its election defeat.". The slide into nasty class-warfare started much earlier than that.
Oh dear - I read Infallible Jack's prediction that Poulter would come at least in the top 5 and have risked £5 ew too.
"Not Winning Here"
Bugger ....
Backed £15 e/w (£30) with Victor. Best odds available.
@JackW
My apologies. All invoices to 1 Richmond Crescent, London N1.
http://transportwatch.wordpress.com/2014/04/09/hs2-summary-case-against/
A snippet to whet the appetite:
"The passenger forecasts: The original forecasts made for HS1 were three times as high as the numbers which materialised. Those for HS2 require eighteen 1,100-seat trains per hour, an extraordinary thing not yet achieved on any high speed network in the world."
But in the spirit of the Yes Campaign I will simply comment, constructively if belatedly, that there was one factor missing from the discussion you and others had about the high turnout for the indyref on the last thread. It is that it would bring in a major element of the DKs: the Labour (Old Style) voters who are at the moment scunnered with the Unionists and with Labour (London HQ variety) for various reasons (e.g being in bed with the Tories, and increasingly merged with them like Flann O'Brien's policeman and his bike) but who have not made the jump to Yes.
Yet.
This was one of the most interesting findings from the crowdsourced polling commissioned by Wings over Scotland last year, and I wouldn't bet the house on them all going for No. I don't know if the most recent poll data throw any light on this.
Add the ratchet effect of people voting for Yes once they become more familiar with the pros and cons (some evidence for this in the recent data) and the effect of turnout is anyone's guess.
Hopefully Hunter Mahan can play well.
I have "Great Expectations" but I am not really a great reader of fiction, read the first chapter and didn't really get into it. Saw an interpretation of "A Tale of Two Cities" in a pub on Upper St last year, and it kind of went over my head.. one of those plays were 5 actors play the whole cast, a bit confusing
Best three books I have read are
The Count Of Monte Cristo
East Of Eden
1984
A PB Eunuch: someone who despite not having a vote in the referendum or influence on the result and with very little knowledge of Scotland, its politics or people, insists on commenting endlessly on the subject (often while claiming utter disinterest). I anoint you Cappo di Castrati.
Are there any cons? Mr. G. has spent months on here telling us that every possible downside was a scare story dreamt up by nasty men (who are also cowards and fools).
Dickens' portrayal of the french revolutionary terror is utterly riveting.
Its also a ratling good thriller.
Hard times is good for different reasons.
At his best Dickens is a man completely furious with the Victorians for their confidence, ebullience, success and hypocrisy.
Correction: cowards, fools, troughers and drunks
By the way, going back to an earlier thread what was the proportion of undergraduates from C2DE groups before the current student loans?
Given your dislike of the HS2<>HS1 link, I was amused a few days ago to skim-read Dickens' Dombey and Sons, which features the chaos caused by the construction of the railways in the Camden area.
I've always thought of you as a bit of a Dickensian character ...
Adam Smith Institute @ASI
Yvette Cooper's progressive approach to immigration looks a lot like the conservative one: http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/politics-government/the-progressive-approach-to-immigration-looks-a-lot-like-the-conservative …
Okay, I've read the first line and it uses the £80 billion cost figure.
Basically, without reading any further, it's a load of rubbish.
Don't worry, there'll be another state of mind along in a minute.
Do tell me how a poster 'excludes' another poster from debate? I'd imagine moderators who ban posters and links to their sites are the only ones who can do that.
I find Dickens an odd writer - I'm more comfortable with Scott and Trollope. However when I complained to an Eng Lit colleague about swamps of Dickensian sentiment big enough for the Crystal Palace dinosaurs (including the Megalosaurus in Bleak House), he explained ot me Dickens was not just all about sentiment: he was also aiming to compel right action as a result. I read Bleak House most recently - by complete coincidence when sorting out a relative's estate with some nasty legal traps and archaic minefields - oddly consoling to do rather better than the one in the novel. But it's still a weird book with some odd undercurrents and anomalies.
One bad poll and the gnashing of teeth reaches gnu levels.
You may also enjoy the Aubrey and Maturin books by Patrick O'Brien [adapted into a somewhat dodgy film], or the Sharpe books by Bernard Cornwell* [adapted into a rather excellent TV series].
* Trivia - the recipe I use for Christmas Cake is that of Mr Cornwell's daughter.
N/G on ALL COUNTS.
No b/e....
However, this is the second poll in a row – following Panelbase’s poll for Wings over Scotland published on Sunday – to show that the winter’s increase in Yes support may have come to a halt now that spring finally seems to be with us.
That is not the impression the Yes side would like to see created. They would prefer to see their support increase month on month – a movement with apparent sufficient momentum to take them past the winning post by September. They must fear that while the winter’s gains may have been consolidated, their further progress is now stalled.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/04/has-the-yes-sides-progress-stalled/
You must be gratified that some of your favourite journos are getting plaudits.
'Press Gazette editor Dominic Ponsford said: “Our list wasn’t based on the number of followers journalists had, but on who – in the opinion of the judges and our readers – was the best reporter on Twitter and social media.
“So we were looking for journalists who embrace social media technology to use it as a medium in its own right to communicate the news....
Press Gazette has named the top 10 choices in hierarchical order and then provides the rest of the top-50 arranged alphabetically.
Ponsford added: “We could have done a hierarchical top 50 but that felt a bit too arbitrary. These are 50 reporters who use social media well and are well worth following.”
3
Alex Thomson – @Alextomo – Chief correspondent and presenter Channel 4 News
10
Phil Mac Giolla Bhain – @Pmacgiollabhain – Journalist and writer living on the west coast of Ireland
Stuart Campbell - @Wingsscotland – Editor of pro Scottish Independence news website Wings Over Scotland'
http://tinyurl.com/pws939z
It's a conspiracy I tell ya.
Point 6 of their EU "plan" is to "take back control of criminal justice"
http://www.conservatives.com/Landing_Pages/European_Election.aspx
But The Telegraph reports that they intend to pass powers over justice and home affairs to the EU after the elections "the date being pencilled in for a Commons vote is on July 22"
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100260182/the-next-tory-plot-to-embarrass-david-cameron-on-europe-is-already-taking-shape/
Thanks also for the recommendations, I will no doubt buy them on Amazon and never read them like most other books I purchase. A well stocked bookcase makes me look clever though!
/ @oflynndirector BBC panels should be Tory, Labour and a 3rd, alternating between Lib Dems and UKIP #clarifyingtweet
3
Alex Thomson – @Alextomo – Chief correspondent and presenter Channel 4 News
10
Phil Mac Giolla Bhain – @Pmacgiollabhain – Journalist and writer living on the west coast of Ireland
Stuart Campbell - @Wingsscotland – Editor of pro Scottish Independence news website Wings Over Scotland'
http://tinyurl.com/pws939z
It's a conspiracy I tell ya.
Is the common thread that they are all obsessed by Scottish matters but none of them live there ?
I don't think Thomson has commented on many Scottish matters other than the club that used to be Rangers.
This presumption that Labour have - or should have - some sort of stranglehold over "minorities" is insulting and despicable
First rule of PB - If there is a poll that is good for the Tory Party , it gets numerous posts and is sub sectioned to an inch of it's life.
Second rule of PB - If it is not a good poll for the Tory Paty ....look squirrel.
Third rule of PB - Go back to the first rule.
Any other party.....meh!
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 7.4%
Con seat lead 59 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 97.8%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 61.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 38.3%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
More or less where its been since May 2013...
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/apr/10/how-case-against-nigel-evans-fell-apart?CMP=twt_gu
Nicholas Watt is good on the background:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/apr/10/nigel-evans-trial-profile
(Pony Juice forecast)
Con vote lead 197.4%
Con seat lead 259 seats
(10000 Brighton swimming baths simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 300.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 297.8%
Chance of a Hung Parliament:0.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 338.3%
Chance of a Labour majority: -40.0%
You still sticking to 1 May crossover or is it 31 May - it's hard to keep up...
Well, there's a surprise.
Interesting blog and report tonight on Channel 4 news about Labour's crutch.
Will he want to?
Can Evans' accusers be charged with perjury?
My daughter and I have this ongiong discussion about whether it is best to read the book or watch the film first - I tend to get disappointed by films if I have read the book first, but she tends to get confused a bit by books when she has seen the film first.
Needless to say, I read the Aubrey and Maturin books before seeing the film, and saw the [modern] film of the Count of Monte Cristo before reading the book.
Can't say that you've entirely convinced me that there's a lot of drained brain that has to be sooked back out of the plughole.
Madness.
You cannot make up for not prosecuting Jimmy Savile by picking on other people.
@antifrank thanks for that link, it was a very interesting article on polling trends. IIRC, despite Brown's 10p tax con in his last budget as Chancellor being picked up and widely reported by the media almost instantly. It was only when many of those actually effected by this tax change opened their wage packets a year later that they realised what Brown had done despite the intense media coverage of this change in the first 48 hours after that budget. I suspect that on hindsight, the slow steady erosion of the Labour lead in the polls over the last year will be traced right back to the start of the ever more visible recovery in the UK economy in much the same way.
Dave still more popular than Ed as well....
Ignoring splash screens, I think UKIP, Plaid and the Greens have the best home pages.
Greens
http://www.greenparty.org.uk
Plaid
http://www.partyofwales.org/?force=1
UKIP
http://www.ukip.org
I think the Greens edge it with their "help in your community" option.
The other party websites don't seem to have done much cross browser testing, as many of their options are below the fold for me.
Conservatives
http://www.conservatives.com
Labour
http://www.labour.org.uk/home
LD
http://www.libdems.org.uk
SNP
http://www.snp.org
#include <stdio.h>
int main()
{
char buffer[100];
snprintf (buffer. sizeof(buffer), "Singback, Crossover" );
while (true)
{
puts(buffer);
}
}
The CPS is almost asking to be disbanded and the powers placed elsewhere in a body that can use them in a snsible way.
I'll throw in One Day as, erm, a starter for ten. Great book - utterly dire film that completely misses the point of the book.
'After Scottish Sun journalist Simon Houston allegedly received a threatening email and an angry and negative response from Rangers supporters "jammed the switchboards" of local radio station sports broadcasts, the editor of The Scottish Sun cancelled the serialisation. The paper envisaged a boycott from Rangers fans, similar to that experienced in Merseyside by the English edition of the paper by Liverpool FC fans after coverage of the Hillsborough Tragedy.'
The 'blighted isle' that you'll welcome back to the UK fold? Very noble of you.
A blog on Ha'aretz says he is:
http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/1.584979