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Fewer than half of Brits support retaining the monarchy – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,141
    edited October 29
    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    After the obsession in the media with the fact Andrew slept with a 17 year old, stupidly but legally in the UK given age of consent is 16 and over the fact he paid £8 million for the Royal Lodge lease and refurbishments for a, again legal, peppercorn rent little surprise.

    However, still a comfortable 18% lead for monarchy over republic even in the new MiC poll. A massive 66% of Tories for retaining the monarchy and a large 65% of Reform voters for retaining the monarchy as well. A significant 18% lead for retaining the monarchy amongst LD voters and a small 10% lead for the monarchy amongst Labour voters as well.

    Clearly more Green voters want a republic than to keep the monarchy but given if Polansi won a majority he would whack up tax and nationalise so much industry and suck up to Hamas harder than Corbyn so we would be a near Marxist state that would be the least of our worries.

    What is going on with people on here over the past few days trying to miminize disgusting behaviour. The obsession isn't JUST he did this, it is that a senior member of the royal was best buds with a profilic sex trafficer, continued that friendships for years after being convicted, let said individual into the heart of royal family with invites to parties for their kids, and then has lied repeatedly about it.
    The obsession is from republicans, maybe including you, when there is no evidence Andrew did anything illegal no matter how stupid and when you largely ignore the likes of Trump, Clinton, Bill Gates, Kevin Spacey, Mandelson etc who were also in Epstein's orbit
    Quite.
    I think HY misses the point. I am (very gently) a monarchist, for the reasons OLB wrote upthread.
    But I can also see that our Royal Family, if they are to play any sensible function in modern society, should be held to a higher moral standard than politicians or actors. The late Queen did this very well and, notwithstanding his complicated relationships with Diana and Camilla, so does Charles imv.
    Thus when a fairly senior Royal is found to be in Epstein's world, I think it rightly gets more focus than a list of Americans or a politician who is known already to be pretty odious.
    Not just any old Americans, TWO US Presidents were in those in Epstein's world, they are/were actual US heads of state and government, Andrew isn't even in top 5 in line of accession now
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,272
    Labor government in Australia.

    "Australia deports foreign criminals to remote Pacific island
    Murderers, paedophiles, drug smugglers and other migrants are being sent to the tiny atoll of Nauru"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/28/australia-deports-foreign-criminals-pacific-island-nauru/?recomm_id=5fb1e59c-3812-4869-a602-ff97d4bd1023
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,794
    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    After the obsession in the media with the fact Andrew slept with a 17 year old, stupidly but legally in the UK given age of consent is 16 and over the fact he paid £8 million for the Royal Lodge lease and refurbishments for a, again legal, peppercorn rent little surprise.

    However, still a comfortable 18% lead for monarchy over republic even in the new MiC poll. A massive 66% of Tories for retaining the monarchy and a large 65% of Reform voters for retaining the monarchy as well. A significant 18% lead for retaining the monarchy amongst LD voters and a small 10% lead for the monarchy amongst Labour voters as well.

    Clearly more Green voters want a republic than to keep the monarchy but given if Polansi won a majority he would whack up tax and nationalise so much industry and suck up to Hamas harder than Corbyn so we would be a near Marxist state that would be the least of our worries.

    What is going on with people on here over the past few days trying to miminize disgusting behaviour. The obsession isn't JUST he did this, it is that a senior member of the royal was best buds with a profilic sex trafficer, continued that friendships for years after being convicted, let said individual into the heart of royal family with invites to parties for their kids, and then has lied repeatedly about it.
    The obsession is from republicans, maybe including you, when there is no evidence Andrew did anything illegal no matter how stupid and when you largely ignore the likes of Trump, Clinton, Bill Gates, Kevin Spacey, Mandelson etc who were also in Epstein's orbit
    Quite.
    I think HY misses the point. I am (very gently) a monarchist, for the reasons OLB wrote upthread.
    But I can also see that our Royal Family, if they are to play any sensible function in modern society, should be held to a higher moral standard than politicians or actors. The late Queen did this very well and, notwithstanding his complicated relationships with Diana and Camilla, so does Charles imv.
    Thus when a fairly senior Royal is found to be in Epstein's world, I think it rightly gets more focus than a list of Americans or a politician who is known already to be pretty odious.
    Not just any old Americans, TWO US Presidents were in those in Epstein's world, they are/were actual US heads of state and government, Andrew isn't even in top 5 in line of accession now
    True, and in many ways the US Presidency is very close to a monarchy.
    But I think the point still stands.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,970
    Andy_JS said:

    Labor government in Australia.

    "Australia deports foreign criminals to remote Pacific island
    Murderers, paedophiles, drug smugglers and other migrants are being sent to the tiny atoll of Nauru"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/28/australia-deports-foreign-criminals-pacific-island-nauru/?recomm_id=5fb1e59c-3812-4869-a602-ff97d4bd1023

    Doesn’t suggest that Nauru’s an attractive place to visit!
  • From what I can glean, £500 is well above the average annual income in Ethiopia (£310pa according to https://wagecentre.com/salary/africa/ethiopia )

    If Roger's post that he is an English teacher was any more than a Swan and Paedo fantasy, then it's about 4 months' salary for a high school teacher ( https://bdeex.com/ethiopia/ )

    That's pretty good money for just a bit of paedo joshing and three months inside
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,177
    maxh said:

    Carnyx said:

    maxh said:

    kinabalu said:

    maxh said:

    Entirely self-indulgent, apologies. My photo quota of the day.

    Wow. Which one is you?
    Green helmet. Viewcode: Pic was taken by our coach, who was also in the door (it's a very wide-angle camera). You can just see her arm with the black band on it in the bottom left of the picture.
    BTW what plane was it please? Obviously specially adapted anyway with the commuter monkey-hanger bars.
    A Cessna Grand Caravan (with something called a Blackhawk conversion to make the engine more powerful). They're standard fare in the skydiving world.

    I once jumped out of an old Russian Mi-8 helicopter in the Slovak republic, but it was somewhat sketchy - it rattled a lot at 14,000 ft!
    Thank you! Obviously moved on from Antonov 2s and Beavers etc.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,177

    Andy_JS said:

    Labor government in Australia.

    "Australia deports foreign criminals to remote Pacific island
    Murderers, paedophiles, drug smugglers and other migrants are being sent to the tiny atoll of Nauru"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/28/australia-deports-foreign-criminals-pacific-island-nauru/?recomm_id=5fb1e59c-3812-4869-a602-ff97d4bd1023

    Doesn’t suggest that Nauru’s an attractive place to visit!
    Doesn't say whether the crims come from Nauru in the first place.

    It's about 8 sq miles and basically a derelict birdshit mine (worked out). Population about 10K, which is a lot for somewhere smaller than the Isle of Eigg.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,686
    maxh said:

    kinabalu said:

    maxh said:

    Entirely self-indulgent, apologies. My photo quota of the day.

    Wow. Which one is you?
    Green helmet. Viewcode: Pic was taken by our coach, who was also in the door (it's a very wide-angle camera). You can just see her arm with the black band on it in the bottom left of the picture.
    Mourning band?
    Might be a bit disconcerting to see this on your parachute instructor.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,776

    King William V looks safe then.

    The best hope for Republicans is that the William and Kate kids grow up well-adjusted enough to realise that they don't want to be part of the circus and abdicate when they reach adulthood.
    Why should we give republicans hope?

    PB is a very weird demographic that seems to have ideological objections to monarchy.

    Most of us love it.
    Republicans might have hope regardless of what you think about it.

    PB is not so weird a demographic. Plenty of people would choose to get rid of the monarchy, and I'd expect people with a bias to systematic/logical thinking would tend to be more likely to be Republicans.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,299
    edited October 29
    Exit poll in Holland expected at 8pm UkTime. My Brother who lives in amsterdam is voting for the 'Party for the Animals' or Green/Socialist. Should be close.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,501
    Andy_JS said:

    Labor government in Australia.

    "Australia deports foreign criminals to remote Pacific island
    Murderers, paedophiles, drug smugglers and other migrants are being sent to the tiny atoll of Nauru"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/28/australia-deports-foreign-criminals-pacific-island-nauru/?recomm_id=5fb1e59c-3812-4869-a602-ff97d4bd1023

    If that was tried here, by any government, the cries of fascism would never end - and it would be bitterly opposed until it ground to a halt.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,501
    I could have also added that Australia has quite a bit of experience in dealing with deported foreign criminals.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,970
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labor government in Australia.

    "Australia deports foreign criminals to remote Pacific island
    Murderers, paedophiles, drug smugglers and other migrants are being sent to the tiny atoll of Nauru"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/28/australia-deports-foreign-criminals-pacific-island-nauru/?recomm_id=5fb1e59c-3812-4869-a602-ff97d4bd1023

    Doesn’t suggest that Nauru’s an attractive place to visit!
    Doesn't say whether the crims come from Nauru in the first place.

    It's about 8 sq miles and basically a derelict birdshit mine (worked out). Population about 10K, which is a lot for somewhere smaller than the Isle of Eigg.
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labor government in Australia.

    "Australia deports foreign criminals to remote Pacific island
    Murderers, paedophiles, drug smugglers and other migrants are being sent to the tiny atoll of Nauru"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/28/australia-deports-foreign-criminals-pacific-island-nauru/?recomm_id=5fb1e59c-3812-4869-a602-ff97d4bd1023

    Doesn’t suggest that Nauru’s an attractive place to visit!
    Doesn't say whether the crims come from Nauru in the first place.

    It's about 8 sq miles and basically a derelict birdshit mine (worked out). Population about 10K, which is a lot for somewhere smaller than the Isle of Eigg.
    I don’t think they're ‘native Naureans’; if indeed there are any such. Deeply unattractive, anyway.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,776
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    When I was young I opposed the monarchy on the grounds that it sanctified the principle of hereditary privilege and I'd argue that case quite strongly in a loud voice with some jabbing of fingers. These days I've become a bit more susceptible to the sort of 'would the alternative be an improvement in practice?' prevarication befitting of a man in his mid-sixties. Still, if there were a Keep/Scrap referendum I'd probably vote S. It's essentially a crazy way to select a head of state.

    Referendums are of course pointless as Brexit proved anyway. MPs and peers refused to vote to implement Brexit and the signed Withdrawal Agreements for 3 years after the 2016 EU referendum Leave vote and only the Conservative majority at the 2019 general election got it done.

    So unless the Greens win a general election majority we will likely always keep our constitutional monarchy
    After the Brexit debacle I think I'm more opposed to Referendums than I am the Monarchy.
    David Runciman had a rather thoughtful podcast on referendums recently. They do seem to do them a lot better in many other countries.

    And the turnout for the Brexit referendum was impressively high.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,177
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25578434.new-train-station-west-lothian-village-green-lit-council/

    Something for Sunil to look forward to. (It's in old oil shale mining and refining country - where the oil industry began originally.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,501

    King William V looks safe then.

    The best hope for Republicans is that the William and Kate kids grow up well-adjusted enough to realise that they don't want to be part of the circus and abdicate when they reach adulthood.
    Why should we give republicans hope?

    PB is a very weird demographic that seems to have ideological objections to monarchy.

    Most of us love it.
    Republicans might have hope regardless of what you think about it.

    PB is not so weird a demographic. Plenty of people would choose to get rid of the monarchy, and I'd expect people with a bias to systematic/logical thinking would tend to be more likely to be Republicans.
    I think that explains the PB plurality view; it's dominated by posters who see look for logic in everything, and can't see it in the monarchy.

    That said, I think that's part of the appeal: monarchy humanises the State with a real family which, coupled with the ceremony and ritual, provides something both special that logic cannot.

    It also explains why Andrew doesn't really damage it: every family has a black sheep, and people recognise that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,177

    I could have also added that Australia has quite a bit of experience in dealing with deported foreign criminals.

    They weren't foreign at the time (the question of the Irish until 1801 aside) The various colonies were entirely British. Would have been shocked to see you say that.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 311

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    When I was young I opposed the monarchy on the grounds that it sanctified the principle of hereditary privilege and I'd argue that case quite strongly in a loud voice with some jabbing of fingers. These days I've become a bit more susceptible to the sort of 'would the alternative be an improvement in practice?' prevarication befitting of a man in his mid-sixties. Still, if there were a Keep/Scrap referendum I'd probably vote S. It's essentially a crazy way to select a head of state.

    Referendums are of course pointless as Brexit proved anyway. MPs and peers refused to vote to implement Brexit and the signed Withdrawal Agreements for 3 years after the 2016 EU referendum Leave vote and only the Conservative majority at the 2019 general election got it done.

    So unless the Greens win a general election majority we will likely always keep our constitutional monarchy
    After the Brexit debacle I think I'm more opposed to Referendums than I am the Monarchy.
    David Runciman had a rather thoughtful podcast on referendums recently. They do seem to do them a lot better in many other countries.

    And the turnout for the Brexit referendum was impressively high.
    So much time has passed and the vote expressing the people's will still enrages so many on this site and beyond. It was decision I regret and not my will but respect for the will of the majority trumps my own pique. It's not a difficult concept. Heigh ho.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,535
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    After the obsession in the media with the fact Andrew slept with a 17 year old, stupidly but legally in the UK given age of consent is 16 and over the fact he paid £8 million for the Royal Lodge lease and refurbishments for a, again legal, peppercorn rent little surprise. Not much mention of the fact Andrew is not even in the top 5 in line to the throne either or that Presidents Trump and ex President Clinton in US republic met Andrew unlike the King or William.

    However, still a comfortable 18% lead for monarchy over republic even in the new MiC poll. A massive 66% of Tories for retaining the monarchy and a large 65% of Reform voters for retaining the monarchy as well. A significant 18% lead for retaining the monarchy amongst LD voters and a small 10% lead for the monarchy amongst Labour voters as well.

    Clearly more Green voters want a republic than to keep the monarchy but given if Polansi won a majority he would whack up tax and nationalise so much industry and suck up to Hamas harder than Corbyn such that we would be a near Marxist state that would be the least of our worries.

    Massive 71% approval rating for Prince William, just 8% negative and clear approval for the Princess of Wales too, both of whom have higher approval ratings than the King, Queen Consort and royal family overall. So when William becomes King the monarchy likely gets a bounce overall and with the young especially

    It will cost a pretty penny to buy out 40? 50? years of peppercorn rent on that property.
    Are you using the Chagas discounting convention?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,535

    HYUFD said:

    After the obsession in the media with the fact Andrew slept with a 17 year old, stupidly but legally in the UK given age of consent is 16 and over the fact he paid £8 million for the Royal Lodge lease and refurbishments for a, again legal, peppercorn rent little surprise.

    However, still a comfortable 18% lead for monarchy over republic even in the new MiC poll. A massive 66% of Tories for retaining the monarchy and a large 65% of Reform voters for retaining the monarchy as well. A significant 18% lead for retaining the monarchy amongst LD voters and a small 10% lead for the monarchy amongst Labour voters as well.

    Clearly more Green voters want a republic than to keep the monarchy but given if Polansi won a majority he would whack up tax and nationalise so much industry and suck up to Hamas harder than Corbyn so we would be a near Marxist state that would be the least of our worries.

    What is going on with people on here over the past few days trying to miminize some terrible behaviour.

    The obsession isn't JUST he did this one thing, it is the girl at the time was being trafficked, that a senior member of the royal was best buds with a profilic sex trafficer, continued that friendships for years after being convicted, let said individual into the heart of royal family with invites to parties for their kids, and then has lied repeatedly about it. And we keep finding out more and more.
    And the girl said she saw Andrew having sex with girls who were under 16 on Epstein's island.
    I believe it was girls who LOOKED LIKE they were under 16.

    Either way it’s an unsubstantiated accusation
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,177

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    After the obsession in the media with the fact Andrew slept with a 17 year old, stupidly but legally in the UK given age of consent is 16 and over the fact he paid £8 million for the Royal Lodge lease and refurbishments for a, again legal, peppercorn rent little surprise. Not much mention of the fact Andrew is not even in the top 5 in line to the throne either or that Presidents Trump and ex President Clinton in US republic met Andrew unlike the King or William.

    However, still a comfortable 18% lead for monarchy over republic even in the new MiC poll. A massive 66% of Tories for retaining the monarchy and a large 65% of Reform voters for retaining the monarchy as well. A significant 18% lead for retaining the monarchy amongst LD voters and a small 10% lead for the monarchy amongst Labour voters as well.

    Clearly more Green voters want a republic than to keep the monarchy but given if Polansi won a majority he would whack up tax and nationalise so much industry and suck up to Hamas harder than Corbyn such that we would be a near Marxist state that would be the least of our worries.

    Massive 71% approval rating for Prince William, just 8% negative and clear approval for the Princess of Wales too, both of whom have higher approval ratings than the King, Queen Consort and royal family overall. So when William becomes King the monarchy likely gets a bounce overall and with the young especially

    It will cost a pretty penny to buy out 40? 50? years of peppercorn rent on that property.
    Are you using the Chagas discounting convention?
    I wouldn't recommend it, it has bugs.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,228
    I think a constitutional monarchy is a much better system than a political head of state. The big drawback is the pressure it places on one individual. Not at all surprising if that individual would decide not for him/her.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,244
    Andy_JS said:

    Labor government in Australia.

    "Australia deports foreign criminals to remote Pacific island
    Murderers, paedophiles, drug smugglers and other migrants are being sent to the tiny atoll of Nauru"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/28/australia-deports-foreign-criminals-pacific-island-nauru/?recomm_id=5fb1e59c-3812-4869-a602-ff97d4bd1023

    They, at least, get it.

    The problem, frankly, is that people here feel unsafe due to immigration. There may be racist attitudes, and/or concerns about integration too. But the killer perception is that we are seeing an influx of "fighting age" young men from a very different, not to say, hostile culture. Whether this is a fair perception, in the overall scheme of things, I've no idea. But it is a political disaster and acting as rocket fuel for the populist far right. It's completely dominating the news cycle, including the BBC.

    The political class needs to put one side its fear of seeming to condone, or accommodate racism, and act. This is no longer the 1970s and the battle against old-style racism has been largely won, as we can see by the prominence of so many BAME people in public life now. This is a different kind of conflict zone.

    @Leon (what happened to him?) was, unfortunately, right about this.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,177

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labor government in Australia.

    "Australia deports foreign criminals to remote Pacific island
    Murderers, paedophiles, drug smugglers and other migrants are being sent to the tiny atoll of Nauru"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/28/australia-deports-foreign-criminals-pacific-island-nauru/?recomm_id=5fb1e59c-3812-4869-a602-ff97d4bd1023

    Doesn’t suggest that Nauru’s an attractive place to visit!
    Doesn't say whether the crims come from Nauru in the first place.

    It's about 8 sq miles and basically a derelict birdshit mine (worked out). Population about 10K, which is a lot for somewhere smaller than the Isle of Eigg.
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labor government in Australia.

    "Australia deports foreign criminals to remote Pacific island
    Murderers, paedophiles, drug smugglers and other migrants are being sent to the tiny atoll of Nauru"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/28/australia-deports-foreign-criminals-pacific-island-nauru/?recomm_id=5fb1e59c-3812-4869-a602-ff97d4bd1023

    Doesn’t suggest that Nauru’s an attractive place to visit!
    Doesn't say whether the crims come from Nauru in the first place.

    It's about 8 sq miles and basically a derelict birdshit mine (worked out). Population about 10K, which is a lot for somewhere smaller than the Isle of Eigg.
    I don’t think they're ‘native Naureans’; if indeed there are any such. Deeply unattractive, anyway.
    It's not self-sufficient in food, which has to be imported, or in *drinking water* either. "Schools are frequently forced to close because they do not have reliable toilets or drinking water for students to use" says Wiki in a gruesome piece on the place. Definitely one for Leon to try, or perhaps not.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,535
    rcs1000 said:

    @StillWaters

    From two threads ago, on the subject of Daylight Savings Time, I would point out that some parts of Arizona observe daylights savings time, while others do not.

    It results in some interestingly creative attempts to commit insurance fraud.

    America is endearingly batty
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,501
    AnneJGP said:

    I think a constitutional monarchy is a much better system than a political head of state. The big drawback is the pressure it places on one individual. Not at all surprising if that individual would decide not for him/her.

    The alternatives are either a ceremonial President that no-one knows or cares about (Germany or Ireland) or a political President that everybody does (France or the USA) where the ceremony rancours.

    I can't see any alternative that provides anything like the same benefits for the UK.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,970

    AnneJGP said:

    I think a constitutional monarchy is a much better system than a political head of state. The big drawback is the pressure it places on one individual. Not at all surprising if that individual would decide not for him/her.

    The alternatives are either a ceremonial President that no-one knows or cares about (Germany or Ireland) or a political President that everybody does (France or the USA) where the ceremony rancours.

    I can't see any alternative that provides anything like the same benefits for the UK.
    Norway? Holland?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,769
    Cyclefree said:


    "Speak to any 14 year old girl, or woman who remembers being 14. Such creepy behaviour by older men is very common."

    @Foxy on a previous thread.

    Yes - as someone who endured this and worse at 14 and on numerous occasions since then it is creepy and criminal and very common.

    And it is very common because men like you, I'm sorry to say, do not take it seriously, underplay it because it has happened "since time immemorial" (your words) so girls should just put up with it and it is far too much expense and bother to build the facilities to lock up the men who make women and girls' life a misery with this sort of behaviour.

    What is needed instead is for us to clamp down hard on men who do this, the first time they do it to send a very clear message that this is intolerable and will not be tolerated. Instead of expecting women to endure it, letting such men carry on with their repellent behaviour for years then being all shocked when they carry out some appalling crime and we learn of all the previous occasions when we turned a blind eye or were far too lenient because .... Well why? Because men can never be expected to behave or accept the consequences of their actions, apparently.

    Women are so fucking fed up and furious at being thought of as second class citizens whose interests don't matter, whose rights to basic decency must always come second to those of men. Every single fucking day in this country we see example after example of this contempt for women and girls, even from professionals such as @ Foxy who might be expected to know better.

    I did not deny that it was an act that neded dealing with by the police, and that it is an offense. I stressed in my first post on this that it should not be tolerated at 0756 today.

    All I called into question was whether a custodial sentence was appropriate.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,177

    Andy_JS said:

    Labor government in Australia.

    "Australia deports foreign criminals to remote Pacific island
    Murderers, paedophiles, drug smugglers and other migrants are being sent to the tiny atoll of Nauru"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/28/australia-deports-foreign-criminals-pacific-island-nauru/?recomm_id=5fb1e59c-3812-4869-a602-ff97d4bd1023

    They, at least, get it.

    The problem, frankly, is that people here feel unsafe due to immigration. There may be racist attitudes, and/or concerns about integration too. But the killer perception is that we are seeing an influx of "fighting age" young men from a very different, not to say, hostile culture. Whether this is a fair perception, in the overall scheme of things, I've no idea. But it is a political disaster and acting as rocket fuel for the populist far right. It's completely dominating the news cycle, including the BBC.

    The political class needs to put one side its fear of seeming to condone, or accommodate racism, and act. This is no longer the 1970s and the battle against old-style racism has been largely won, as we can see by the prominence of so many BAME people in public life now. This is a different kind of conflict zone.

    @Leon (what happened to him?) was, unfortunately, right about this.
    Isn't the headline and ensuing discussion perhaps conflating criminals with migrants? The issue is important given how small Nauru is - they even import drinking water.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,705

    Heathrow, NatWest and Minecraft sites down amid global Microsoft outage
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rj45n4x5eo

    Cloud computing – what could go wrong?

    It is apparently a DNS issue !
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,535

    rcs1000 said:

    If we were starting a country from scratch, would we choose to have a monarchy? Of course not.

    But we're not.

    And there isn't a really good reason that I can see to actually get rid of the monarchy. Nor is there any settled view on what we should replace it with.

    So, I'm voting to keep it.

    I fundamentally believe that someone shouldn't be born into a position simply by having the right parents. Why is King Charles king? Because of his mother. In no other area of life do we expect this to be the case (although nepotism is strong in politics and the arts).
    Greg Penner is the chairman of Walmart, I believe. He's only that because he's Sam Walton's son-in-law.
    Thats a private business, not paid for by taxation. Same way I don't object to people inheriting houses etc. But thats different to the royal family. I'm expected to call Charles 'Your Royal Highness" simply because of whose vagina he emerged from.
    You are not required to call Charles "Your Royal Highness". It's a custom, but you won't be arrested if you call him Mr Windsor.

    (#pbpedantry It's not about the vagina he transited. If he'd been born by Caesarean section, he'd still be King. If the Queen's egg had been mixed with Prince Charles' sperm in a petri dish and then the resulting early embryo implanted in a surrogate's womb, he'd still be King, I guess?)
    I believe it needs to be “of the body born” so surrogates don’t count
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,977

    From what I can glean, £500 is well above the average annual income in Ethiopia (£310pa according to https://wagecentre.com/salary/africa/ethiopia )

    If Roger's post that he is an English teacher was any more than a Swan and Paedo fantasy, then it's about 4 months' salary for a high school teacher ( https://bdeex.com/ethiopia/ )

    That's pretty good money for just a bit of paedo joshing and three months inside

    You sound very bitter...
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,426
    Scott_xP said:

    Heathrow, NatWest and Minecraft sites down amid global Microsoft outage
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rj45n4x5eo

    Cloud computing – what could go wrong?

    It is apparently a DNS issue !
    My John Lewis credit card account is down for "maintenance". They usually do it in the middle of the night...
  • From what I can glean, £500 is well above the average annual income in Ethiopia (£310pa according to https://wagecentre.com/salary/africa/ethiopia )

    If Roger's post that he is an English teacher was any more than a Swan and Paedo fantasy, then it's about 4 months' salary for a high school teacher ( https://bdeex.com/ethiopia/ )

    That's pretty good money for just a bit of paedo joshing and three months inside

    You sound very bitter...
    I'm concerned that we may have created an incentive for "asylum" trips to the UK - it's over 18 months average pay ffs

    My poor pay is a matter of record on here, nice of you to poke fun at it
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,713
    Scott_xP said:

    Heathrow, NatWest and Minecraft sites down amid global Microsoft outage
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rj45n4x5eo

    Cloud computing – what could go wrong?

    It is apparently a DNS issue !
    After Googling DNS I am still none the wiser.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,977

    From what I can glean, £500 is well above the average annual income in Ethiopia (£310pa according to https://wagecentre.com/salary/africa/ethiopia )

    If Roger's post that he is an English teacher was any more than a Swan and Paedo fantasy, then it's about 4 months' salary for a high school teacher ( https://bdeex.com/ethiopia/ )

    That's pretty good money for just a bit of paedo joshing and three months inside

    You sound very bitter...
    I'm concerned that we may have created an incentive for "asylum" trips to the UK - it's over 18 months average pay ffs

    My poor pay is a matter of record on here, nice of you to poke fun at it
    I never even mentioned your pay! For that matter I suspect it is significantly higher than my pension.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602
    edited October 29
    maxh said:

    Entirely self-indulgent, apologies. My photo quota of the day.

    That one time you bought tickets off SkyScanner for an airline you have never heard of......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602

    From what I can glean, £500 is well above the average annual income in Ethiopia (£310pa according to https://wagecentre.com/salary/africa/ethiopia )

    If Roger's post that he is an English teacher was any more than a Swan and Paedo fantasy, then it's about 4 months' salary for a high school teacher ( https://bdeex.com/ethiopia/ )

    That's pretty good money for just a bit of paedo joshing and three months inside

    You sound very bitter...
    I'm concerned that we may have created an incentive for "asylum" trips to the UK - it's over 18 months average pay ffs

    My poor pay is a matter of record on here, nice of you to poke fun at it
    He actually took a low ball offer, £2k is up for grabs.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,535

    Let's have a ballot for next Head of State. Two options:

    William Windsor
    Reopen Nominations

    I'm voting for Ron.

    Pickering?
    If you badger him enough he might admit it’s Ron Davies?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,116

    Scott_xP said:

    Heathrow, NatWest and Minecraft sites down amid global Microsoft outage
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rj45n4x5eo

    Cloud computing – what could go wrong?

    It is apparently a DNS issue !
    After Googling DNS I am still none the wiser.
    The internet currently thinks you are Daftbloke McDuff and you have always voted for the Whigs, will inherit Wiltshire, and shop in Aldi for your steel refineries. Now I know much of that is true, but we can't have the world knowing all our secrets.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,511
    Scott_xP said:

    Heathrow, NatWest and Minecraft sites down amid global Microsoft outage
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rj45n4x5eo

    Cloud computing – what could go wrong?

    It is apparently a DNS issue !
    I can't load X-Box Game Pass. I wanted to download The Outer Worlds 2. Boooooo.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,713
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25578434.new-train-station-west-lothian-village-green-lit-council/

    Something for Sunil to look forward to. (It's in old oil shale mining and refining country - where the oil industry began originally.)

    "Train station" and "green lit" in the same headline.

    Jesus wept.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,272
    "Suella Braverman
    Anti-white racism is rampant and must be stopped
    Discrimination has crept into national life under the banner of progress"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/29/anti-white-racism-is-rampant-in-modern-britain/?recomm_id=054d61bd-4183-446e-a102-721153626696
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,419

    Scott_xP said:

    Heathrow, NatWest and Minecraft sites down amid global Microsoft outage
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rj45n4x5eo

    Cloud computing – what could go wrong?

    It is apparently a DNS issue !
    After Googling DNS I am still none the wiser.
    When you type "google.com" into your browser, the browser doesn't know where "google.com" is. DNS enables the browser to look up the name (eg "www.google.com"), find the IP address (eg "173.194.39.78"), and go find that instead, because it knows how to do that.

    So if DNS goes down, the internet breaks.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,272
    Visiting Tokyo, you certainly don't get the impression of a "less is more" city.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602
    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Heathrow, NatWest and Minecraft sites down amid global Microsoft outage
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rj45n4x5eo

    Cloud computing – what could go wrong?

    It is apparently a DNS issue !
    After Googling DNS I am still none the wiser.
    When you type "google.com" into your browser, the browser doesn't know where "google.com" is. DNS enables the browser to look up the name (eg "www.google.com"), find the IP address (eg "173.194.39.78"), and go find that instead, because it knows how to do that.

    So if DNS goes down, the internet breaks.

    Bring back the yellow pages.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602
    edited October 29
    Reform back to a 33% high in our Voting Intention. The combined Green/Reform vote hits 44% - 5 points higher than the Tory/Labour vote

    ➡️ REF UK 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON 18% (-1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1)
    🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-)

    N 2,030 | 24 -27/10 | Change w 20/10

    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dafzc2uc27

    Headline numbers aren't that interesting, but the supplementals show the Greens have the Maomentum.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,610

    Reform back to a 33% high in our Voting Intention. The combined Green/Reform vote hits 44% - 5 points higher than the Tory/Labour vote

    ➡️ REF UK 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON 18% (-1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1)
    🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-)

    N 2,030 | 24 -27/10 | Change w 20/10

    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dafzc2uc27

    Headline numbers aren't that interesting, but the supplementals show the Greens have the Maomentum.

    Only because YourSultanasParty haven't got their act together.

    Green vote will drop by a 1/3 maybe more if/when they ever do.

  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,799
    Andy_JS said:

    "Suella Braverman
    Anti-white racism is rampant and must be stopped
    Discrimination has crept into national life under the banner of progress"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/29/anti-white-racism-is-rampant-in-modern-britain/?recomm_id=054d61bd-4183-446e-a102-721153626696

    Oh FFS!! which pigment deprived snowflakes think this?
    As someone in the white british category it's not something I've experienced in my many decades
  • Suella is another numpty who will be loudly praising the camps even as she is being locked up in one. Maybe she'll get to share a bunk-bed with Kemi and Mrs Farage
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602

    Reform back to a 33% high in our Voting Intention. The combined Green/Reform vote hits 44% - 5 points higher than the Tory/Labour vote

    ➡️ REF UK 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON 18% (-1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1)
    🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-)

    N 2,030 | 24 -27/10 | Change w 20/10

    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dafzc2uc27

    Headline numbers aren't that interesting, but the supplementals show the Greens have the Maomentum.

    Only because YourSultanasParty haven't got their act together.

    Green vote will drop by a 1/3 maybe more if/when they ever do.

    I am starting to wonder if the fruit and nutters have missed their chance and allowed a calmer more telegenic bloke to steal all their limelight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,141
    edited October 29

    Reform back to a 33% high in our Voting Intention. The combined Green/Reform vote hits 44% - 5 points higher than the Tory/Labour vote

    ➡️ REF UK 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON 18% (-1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1)
    🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-)

    N 2,030 | 24 -27/10 | Change w 20/10

    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dafzc2uc27

    Headline numbers aren't that interesting, but the supplementals show the Greens have the Maomentum.

    Surely the 32% combined Labour and Green vote is of more interest, given no chance of the Greens ever doing a deal with Reform?

    Still just behind the 33% for Reform, though add the LDs and SNP too to Labour and the Greens and you get to 46%, well ahead of Reform.

    Add the Tory total to Reform's though in turn and you get to 51%, albeit about a quarter to a third of Tories would go LD on a forced choice over Reform
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,810
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:


    "Speak to any 14 year old girl, or woman who remembers being 14. Such creepy behaviour by older men is very common."

    @Foxy on a previous thread.

    Yes - as someone who endured this and worse at 14 and on numerous occasions since then it is creepy and criminal and very common.

    And it is very common because men like you, I'm sorry to say, do not take it seriously, underplay it because it has happened "since time immemorial" (your words) so girls should just put up with it and it is far too much expense and bother to build the facilities to lock up the men who make women and girls' life a misery with this sort of behaviour.

    What is needed instead is for us to clamp down hard on men who do this, the first time they do it to send a very clear message that this is intolerable and will not be tolerated. Instead of expecting women to endure it, letting such men carry on with their repellent behaviour for years then being all shocked when they carry out some appalling crime and we learn of all the previous occasions when we turned a blind eye or were far too lenient because .... Well why? Because men can never be expected to behave or accept the consequences of their actions, apparently.

    Women are so fucking fed up and furious at being thought of as second class citizens whose interests don't matter, whose rights to basic decency must always come second to those of men. Every single fucking day in this country we see example after example of this contempt for women and girls, even from professionals such as @ Foxy who might be expected to know better.

    I did not deny that it was an act that neded dealing with by the police, and that it is an offense. I stressed in my first post on this that it should not be tolerated at 0756 today.

    All I called into question was whether a custodial sentence was appropriate.
    Your posts absolutely downplayed the crime. He physically assaulted two women, one being a 14 year old child. You also chose not to find the judges comments when passing sentence which made it clear why a custodial was necessary

    You also claimed he was a victim of racism.

    Cyclefree is absolutely right here.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,370
    edited October 29
    Sean_F said:

    On topic, of the twenty countries with the highest human development indices, twelve are constitutional monarchies (UK, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Luxembourg, Lichtenstein). Constitutional monarchy fulfills the basic test of a polity. It works.

    A high tax burden monarchy might be just the compromise we've been looking for ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,141
    edited October 29

    King William V looks safe then.

    The best hope for Republicans is that the William and Kate kids grow up well-adjusted enough to realise that they don't want to be part of the circus and abdicate when they reach adulthood.
    Why should we give republicans hope?

    PB is a very weird demographic that seems to have ideological objections to monarchy.

    Most of us love it.
    Republicans might have hope regardless of what you think about it.

    PB is not so weird a demographic. Plenty of people would choose to get rid of the monarchy, and I'd expect people with a bias to systematic/logical thinking would tend to be more likely to be Republicans.
    Uh no, the only party which has most of its voters backing a republic are the Greens and the Greens are not showing a systematic or logical approach to their proposals for government, certainly not in terms of their socialist economics
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,810
    Dopermean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Suella Braverman
    Anti-white racism is rampant and must be stopped
    Discrimination has crept into national life under the banner of progress"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/29/anti-white-racism-is-rampant-in-modern-britain/?recomm_id=054d61bd-4183-446e-a102-721153626696

    Oh FFS!! which pigment deprived snowflakes think this?
    As someone in the white british category it's not something I've experienced in my many decades
    Ah, if you’ve not experienced it that’s okay then, 👍
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,837

    Reform back to a 33% high in our Voting Intention. The combined Green/Reform vote hits 44% - 5 points higher than the Tory/Labour vote

    ➡️ REF UK 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON 18% (-1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1)
    🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-)

    N 2,030 | 24 -27/10 | Change w 20/10

    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dafzc2uc27

    Headline numbers aren't that interesting, but the supplementals show the Greens have the Maomentum.

    Only because YourSultanasParty haven't got their act together.

    Green vote will drop by a 1/3 maybe more if/when they ever do.

    I am starting to wonder if the fruit and nutters have missed their chance and allowed a calmer more telegenic bloke to steal all their limelight.
    The Sultanas still have the benefit of ten or so constituencies with highly concentrated support.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,794

    Reform back to a 33% high in our Voting Intention. The combined Green/Reform vote hits 44% - 5 points higher than the Tory/Labour vote

    ➡️ REF UK 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON 18% (-1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1)
    🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-)

    N 2,030 | 24 -27/10 | Change w 20/10

    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dafzc2uc27

    Headline numbers aren't that interesting, but the supplementals show the Greens have the Maomentum.

    Only because YourSultanasParty haven't got their act together.

    Green vote will drop by a 1/3 maybe more if/when they ever do.

    I am starting to wonder if the fruit and nutters have missed their chance and allowed a calmer more telegenic bloke to steal all their limelight.
    As one of their target voters, the two parties seem indistiguishable to me except that one has incessant infighting and seems self-obsessed and the other is organised, vocal and increasingly popular (if a bit mad).

    So yes, I'd tend to agree with you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,141
    Some good news for Kemi, the Tories now lead Reform with 18-28 year olds according to MiC. Only problem is they also still trail not only Labour but also the Greens with the youngest age group.

    Gen Z voting intention

    Greens 29%
    Labour 27%
    Conservatives 18%
    Reform 16%
    LDs 5%
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dagecfbk27
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,419

    Netherlands

    Polls close 8pm GMT

    https://nos.nl/collectie/14006/livestream/2588409-kijk-hier-live-nos-nederland-kiest-de-uitslagen

    https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2025/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Dutch_general_election

    Ok so we are nearing the end of the 2025 election season - Tuesday will see a raft of state and local elections in the US, including the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorials and the New York city mayoral.

    If you love pure PR, a multi-party system, drawn-out coalition negotiations, and governments that often collapse early, the Dutch political scene is the one for you.

    I'll post further links if I find any better live maps etc - one of Schiermonnikoog, Rozendaal, or Renswoude is likely to be the first result declared, although this may take a while with the beach towel-sized ballot papers.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Yay, it's election night! @DoubleCarpet is here!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,217
    edited October 29
    Pointless poll given the shite around. Andrew.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,837
    O/T but over the past year, I’ve paid out £700,000 in Inheritance Tax, on estates. That’s staggering, for a tiny law firm.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,837
    HYUFD said:

    Some good news for Kemi, the Tories now lead Reform with 18-28 year olds according to MiC. Only problem is they also still trail not only Labour but also the Greens with the youngest age group.

    Gen Z voting intention

    Greens 29%
    Labour 27%
    Conservatives 18%
    Reform 16%
    LDs 5%
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dagecfbk27

    34% for right wing parties, among the youngest voters, seems quite healthy.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,569

    Scott_xP said:

    Heathrow, NatWest and Minecraft sites down amid global Microsoft outage
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rj45n4x5eo

    Cloud computing – what could go wrong?

    It is apparently a DNS issue !
    My John Lewis credit card account is down for "maintenance". They usually do it in the middle of the night...
    My Gym app (no laughing at the back) is not working.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,741
    HYUFD said:

    Reform back to a 33% high in our Voting Intention. The combined Green/Reform vote hits 44% - 5 points higher than the Tory/Labour vote

    ➡️ REF UK 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON 18% (-1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1)
    🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-)

    N 2,030 | 24 -27/10 | Change w 20/10

    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dafzc2uc27

    Headline numbers aren't that interesting, but the supplementals show the Greens have the Maomentum.

    Surely the 32% combined Labour and Green vote is of more interest, given no chance of the Greens ever doing a deal with Reform?

    Still just behind the 33% for Reform, though add the LDs and SNP too to Labour and the Greens and you get to 46%, well ahead of Reform.

    Add the Tory total to Reform's though in turn and you get to 51%, albeit about a quarter to a third of Tories would go LD on a forced choice over Reform
    I am Spartacus.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,534

    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Heathrow, NatWest and Minecraft sites down amid global Microsoft outage
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rj45n4x5eo

    Cloud computing – what could go wrong?

    It is apparently a DNS issue !
    After Googling DNS I am still none the wiser.
    When you type "google.com" into your browser, the browser doesn't know where "google.com" is. DNS enables the browser to look up the name (eg "www.google.com"), find the IP address (eg "173.194.39.78"), and go find that instead, because it knows how to do that.

    So if DNS goes down, the internet breaks.

    Bring back the yellow pages.....
    There actually was a Yellow Pages but they (well, Sun) had to change its name because BT owned the trademark. It was more of an AD or LDAP equivalent rather than DNS.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,272
    edited October 29
    "Lee Anderson: I gamed the system to get people on benefits
    MP says welfare advisers are skilled at manipulating the claims process as Reform announces plan to restrict PIPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/10/29/lee-anderson-mp-gamed-system-fittest-man-benefits-reform-uk
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,228
    Sean_F said:

    O/T but over the past year, I’ve paid out £700,000 in Inheritance Tax, on estates. That’s staggering, for a tiny law firm.

    Your clients are doing their bit for the exchequer. Good on them.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,128
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some good news for Kemi, the Tories now lead Reform with 18-28 year olds according to MiC. Only problem is they also still trail not only Labour but also the Greens with the youngest age group.

    Gen Z voting intention

    Greens 29%
    Labour 27%
    Conservatives 18%
    Reform 16%
    LDs 5%
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dagecfbk27

    34% for right wing parties, among the youngest voters, seems quite healthy.
    There are a lot of Reformey young people in the new media space but little evidence that the party itself is building on it. Very much still the Farage show.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,141
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some good news for Kemi, the Tories now lead Reform with 18-28 year olds according to MiC. Only problem is they also still trail not only Labour but also the Greens with the youngest age group.

    Gen Z voting intention

    Greens 29%
    Labour 27%
    Conservatives 18%
    Reform 16%
    LDs 5%
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dagecfbk27

    34% for right wing parties, among the youngest voters, seems quite healthy.
    Yes, at the 2024 general election the combined vote for the Tories and Reform was just 12% with 18-24s and 23% with 25-34s.

    Even in 2019 the combined Conservative and Brexit Party vote was a mere 22% with 18 to 24s and 24% with 25-29s
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Results

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,501
    I see Starmer and Reeves have refused to rule out income tax rises.

    Which I presume means income tax rises are coming.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,829
    I should have said that men convicted of possession of CSA images are very often NOT sent to prison.

    I find it baffling and enraging.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602
    edited October 29

    I see Starmer and Reeves have refused to rule out income tax rises.

    Which I presume means income tax rises are coming.

    But but but the manifesto commitments.....and the last £40bn in tax rises that were to fix the foundations being a one off.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,610
    edited October 29

    I see Starmer and Reeves have refused to rule out income tax rises.

    Which I presume means income tax rises are coming.

    But but but the manifesto commitments.....and the last £40bn in tax rises that were to fix the foundations being a one off.....

    Robert Peston
    @Peston

    Big moment at #PMQs. Keir Starmer refused to say he would stand by Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance, VAT or corporation tax. It is increasingly clear the budget will include a significant rise in income tax - because it is the only clean way, ministers believe, to fill the £35bn budget black hole.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1983506906262995081



    Peston says income tax rise coming.

    I'm sure PBers will know what this means.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,494
    Dutch exit poll in terms of projected seats, NOT votes:

    D66: 27
    PVV: 25
    VVD: 23
    GL/PVDA: 20
    CDA: 19
    JA21: 9
    Others: 27

    Fantastic result for D66 - their best ever. Much better from VVD than seemed likely but not so good for GL/PVDA but only an exit poll, real numbers to follow.

  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,794
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:


    "Speak to any 14 year old girl, or woman who remembers being 14. Such creepy behaviour by older men is very common."

    @Foxy on a previous thread.

    Yes - as someone who endured this and worse at 14 and on numerous occasions since then it is creepy and criminal and very common.

    And it is very common because men like you, I'm sorry to say, do not take it seriously, underplay it because it has happened "since time immemorial" (your words) so girls should just put up with it and it is far too much expense and bother to build the facilities to lock up the men who make women and girls' life a misery with this sort of behaviour.

    What is needed instead is for us to clamp down hard on men who do this, the first time they do it to send a very clear message that this is intolerable and will not be tolerated. Instead of expecting women to endure it, letting such men carry on with their repellent behaviour for years then being all shocked when they carry out some appalling crime and we learn of all the previous occasions when we turned a blind eye or were far too lenient because .... Well why? Because men can never be expected to behave or accept the consequences of their actions, apparently.

    Women are so fucking fed up and furious at being thought of as second class citizens whose interests don't matter, whose rights to basic decency must always come second to those of men. Every single fucking day in this country we see example after example of this contempt for women and girls, even from professionals such as @ Foxy who might be expected to know better.

    I did not deny that it was an act that neded dealing with by the police, and that it is an offense. I stressed in my first post on this that it should not be tolerated at 0756 today.

    All I called into question was whether a custodial sentence was appropriate.
    Why would a custodial sentence be inappropriate?

    And if a custodial sentence is not given in what way are we showing - not just saying - that such acts should not be tolerated?

    See for instance the number of men convicted of having child porn images, some of the very worst kind, who are very often sent to prison. Listen to the excuses given: "stress" and "good character" and so on. Then we wonder at why it is so prevalent.

    As for @maxh's question - sentiments, even horrible ones, are not crimes. It is actions which are crimes and words which incite violence. Thoughts are not crimes. So if someone attacks an immigrant or a trans person etc of course they should be dealt with firmly. Equally if those groups commit crimes they should be dealt with firmly. I would only note that the police do not take an even handed approach on this. It is apparently ok to make all kinds of threats of violence or commit actual violence against women, often in public places, with the police doing nothing at all.
    Thanks Cyclefree - that difference is obvious now you have pointed it out and I am embarrassed that you needed to do so! And of course there are instances of actual crimes in relation to eg inciting violence against immigrants that are clamped down on very harshly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,769
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:


    "Speak to any 14 year old girl, or woman who remembers being 14. Such creepy behaviour by older men is very common."

    @Foxy on a previous thread.

    Yes - as someone who endured this and worse at 14 and on numerous occasions since then it is creepy and criminal and very common.

    And it is very common because men like you, I'm sorry to say, do not take it seriously, underplay it because it has happened "since time immemorial" (your words) so girls should just put up with it and it is far too much expense and bother to build the facilities to lock up the men who make women and girls' life a misery with this sort of behaviour.

    What is needed instead is for us to clamp down hard on men who do this, the first time they do it to send a very clear message that this is intolerable and will not be tolerated. Instead of expecting women to endure it, letting such men carry on with their repellent behaviour for years then being all shocked when they carry out some appalling crime and we learn of all the previous occasions when we turned a blind eye or were far too lenient because .... Well why? Because men can never be expected to behave or accept the consequences of their actions, apparently.

    Women are so fucking fed up and furious at being thought of as second class citizens whose interests don't matter, whose rights to basic decency must always come second to those of men. Every single fucking day in this country we see example after example of this contempt for women and girls, even from professionals such as @ Foxy who might be expected to know better.

    I did not deny that it was an act that neded dealing with by the police, and that it is an offense. I stressed in my first post on this that it should not be tolerated at 0756 today.

    All I called into question was whether a custodial sentence was appropriate.
    Why would a custodial sentence be inappropriate?

    And if a custodial sentence is not given in what way are we showing - not just saying - that such acts should not be tolerated?

    See for instance the number of men convicted of having child porn images, some of the very worst kind, who are very often sent to prison. Listen to the excuses given: "stress" and "good character" and so on. Then we wonder at why it is so prevalent.

    As for @maxh's question - sentiments, even horrible ones, are not crimes. It is actions which are crimes and words which incite violence. Thoughts are not crimes. So if someone attacks an immigrant or a trans person etc of course they should be dealt with firmly. Equally if those groups commit crimes they should be dealt with firmly. I would only note that the police do not take an even handed approach on this. It is apparently ok to make all kinds of threats of violence or commit actual violence against women, often in public places, with the police doing nothing at all.
    I think there are reasonable alternatives to prison for many offences, and that prison is an expensive way of making bad people worse.

    While his circumstances are more unusual, in that there probably is significant flight risk so remand probably required, but if he was a British citizen then he probably would be better punished by being placed on the sexual offenders register and a suspended sentence.

    If you really want to tackle the issue of preventing re-offending by paedophiles then systems like "circles of support" are probably the best system.

    https://circles-uk.org.uk/about/#our_impact
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,983
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:


    "Speak to any 14 year old girl, or woman who remembers being 14. Such creepy behaviour by older men is very common."

    @Foxy on a previous thread.

    Yes - as someone who endured this and worse at 14 and on numerous occasions since then it is creepy and criminal and very common.

    And it is very common because men like you, I'm sorry to say, do not take it seriously, underplay it because it has happened "since time immemorial" (your words) so girls should just put up with it and it is far too much expense and bother to build the facilities to lock up the men who make women and girls' life a misery with this sort of behaviour.

    What is needed instead is for us to clamp down hard on men who do this, the first time they do it to send a very clear message that this is intolerable and will not be tolerated. Instead of expecting women to endure it, letting such men carry on with their repellent behaviour for years then being all shocked when they carry out some appalling crime and we learn of all the previous occasions when we turned a blind eye or were far too lenient because .... Well why? Because men can never be expected to behave or accept the consequences of their actions, apparently.

    Women are so fucking fed up and furious at being thought of as second class citizens whose interests don't matter, whose rights to basic decency must always come second to those of men. Every single fucking day in this country we see example after example of this contempt for women and girls, even from professionals such as @ Foxy who might be expected to know better.

    I did not deny that it was an act that neded dealing with by the police, and that it is an offense. I stressed in my first post on this that it should not be tolerated at 0756 today.

    All I called into question was whether a custodial sentence was appropriate.
    Why would a custodial sentence be inappropriate?

    And if a custodial sentence is not given in what way are we showing - not just saying - that such acts should not be tolerated?

    See for instance the number of men convicted of having child porn images, some of the very worst kind, who are very often sent to prison. Listen to the excuses given: "stress" and "good character" and so on. Then we wonder at why it is so prevalent.

    As for @maxh's question - sentiments, even horrible ones, are not crimes. It is actions which are crimes and words which incite violence. Thoughts are not crimes. So if someone attacks an immigrant or a trans person etc of course they should be dealt with firmly. Equally if those groups commit crimes they should be dealt with firmly. I would only note that the police do not take an even handed approach on this. It is apparently ok to make all kinds of threats of violence or commit actual violence against women, often in public places, with the police doing nothing at all.
    The mods won't allow me to discuss my experience of it here but they frequently ignore crimes against trans women, too.

    I am in absolute agreement with you that male violence against women - in my view against both cis and trans women - is a problem.

    Not trying to get into an argument with you - some of the attitudes on display from various posters in recent days on historical crimes like Polanski's and the Epping sex pest - are exemplars of men minimising and excusing violence against women.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602
    stodge said:

    Dutch exit poll in terms of projected seats, NOT votes:

    D66: 27
    PVV: 25
    VVD: 23
    GL/PVDA: 20
    CDA: 19
    JA21: 9
    Others: 27

    Fantastic result for D66 - their best ever. Much better from VVD than seemed likely but not so good for GL/PVDA but only an exit poll, real numbers to follow.

    And now for 6 months of negiotations over coalitions.
  • I see Starmer and Reeves have refused to rule out income tax rises.

    Which I presume means income tax rises are coming.

    But but but the manifesto commitments.....and the last £40bn in tax rises that were to fix the foundations being a one off.....

    Robert Peston
    @Peston

    Big moment at #PMQs. Keir Starmer refused to say he would stand by Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance, VAT or corporation tax. It is increasingly clear the budget will include a significant rise in income tax - because it is the only clean way, ministers believe, to fill the £35bn budget black hole.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1983506906262995081



    Peston says income tax rise coming.

    I'm sure PBers will know what this means.

    Blessed are the naïve ones who think it will only be those richer than them who will be taxed.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,312
    edited October 29

    I see Starmer and Reeves have refused to rule out income tax rises.

    Which I presume means income tax rises are coming.

    But but but the manifesto commitments.....and the last £40bn in tax rises that were to fix the foundations being a one off.....
    It would be a very… brave… choice.

    There’s a decent argument that they should’ve just done it last autumn and gotten it over with. To do it now, after having expended a lot of political capital telling everyone for the past 18 months you won’t, is going to be a pretty hard sell. Possibly terminal for the government, I think. See Bush 1990.

    Of course the other choices (tinkering and trying to raise revenue through all sorts of other creative means) is poor economics, and unlikely to help.

    I do think there has to be a good chance this is all expectations management though, so when they don’t raise it they can claim it as some sort of win.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602

    I see Starmer and Reeves have refused to rule out income tax rises.

    Which I presume means income tax rises are coming.

    But but but the manifesto commitments.....and the last £40bn in tax rises that were to fix the foundations being a one off.....

    Robert Peston
    @Peston

    Big moment at #PMQs. Keir Starmer refused to say he would stand by Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance, VAT or corporation tax. It is increasingly clear the budget will include a significant rise in income tax - because it is the only clean way, ministers believe, to fill the £35bn budget black hole.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1983506906262995081



    Peston says income tax rise coming.

    I'm sure PBers will know what this means.

    I wish I could breath a sigh of relief, but I fear Prof Peston might actually be right on this one rare occasion.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602

    I see Starmer and Reeves have refused to rule out income tax rises.

    Which I presume means income tax rises are coming.

    But but but the manifesto commitments.....and the last £40bn in tax rises that were to fix the foundations being a one off.....
    It would be a very… brave… choice.

    There’s a decent argument that they should’ve just done it last autumn and gotten it over with. To do it now, after having expended a lot of political capital telling everyone for the past 18 months you won’t, is going to be a pretty hard sell. Possibly terminal for the government, I think. See Bush 1990.

    Of course the other choices (tinkering and trying to raise revenue through all sorts of other creative means) is poor economics, and unlikely to help.

    I do think there has to be a good chance this is all expectations management though, so when they don’t raise it they can claim it as some sort of win.
    I definitely think there has been a fair amount of anchoring going on.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,494
    On other polling, the discrepency between YouGov and More In Common is astonishing.

    Putting the two numbers together for each party:

    ➡️ REF UK 27%/33%
    🌹 LAB 17%/21%
    🌳 CON 17%/18%
    🔶 LIB DEM 15%/12%
    🌍 GREEN 16%/11%
    🟡 SNP 3%/2%

    That level of divergence is huge and suggests very different sampling and weighting methodologies. It's not a question of who is "right" now but who (if either) will turn out to be right at the next GE.
  • Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:


    "Speak to any 14 year old girl, or woman who remembers being 14. Such creepy behaviour by older men is very common."

    @Foxy on a previous thread.

    Yes - as someone who endured this and worse at 14 and on numerous occasions since then it is creepy and criminal and very common.

    And it is very common because men like you, I'm sorry to say, do not take it seriously, underplay it because it has happened "since time immemorial" (your words) so girls should just put up with it and it is far too much expense and bother to build the facilities to lock up the men who make women and girls' life a misery with this sort of behaviour.

    What is needed instead is for us to clamp down hard on men who do this, the first time they do it to send a very clear message that this is intolerable and will not be tolerated. Instead of expecting women to endure it, letting such men carry on with their repellent behaviour for years then being all shocked when they carry out some appalling crime and we learn of all the previous occasions when we turned a blind eye or were far too lenient because .... Well why? Because men can never be expected to behave or accept the consequences of their actions, apparently.

    Women are so fucking fed up and furious at being thought of as second class citizens whose interests don't matter, whose rights to basic decency must always come second to those of men. Every single fucking day in this country we see example after example of this contempt for women and girls, even from professionals such as @ Foxy who might be expected to know better.

    I did not deny that it was an act that neded dealing with by the police, and that it is an offense. I stressed in my first post on this that it should not be tolerated at 0756 today.

    All I called into question was whether a custodial sentence was appropriate.
    Why would a custodial sentence be inappropriate?

    And if a custodial sentence is not given in what way are we showing - not just saying - that such acts should not be tolerated?

    See for instance the number of men convicted of having child porn images, some of the very worst kind, who are very often sent to prison. Listen to the excuses given: "stress" and "good character" and so on. Then we wonder at why it is so prevalent.

    As for @maxh's question - sentiments, even horrible ones, are not crimes. It is actions which are crimes and words which incite violence. Thoughts are not crimes. So if someone attacks an immigrant or a trans person etc of course they should be dealt with firmly. Equally if those groups commit crimes they should be dealt with firmly. I would only note that the police do not take an even handed approach on this. It is apparently ok to make all kinds of threats of violence or commit actual violence against women, often in public places, with the police doing nothing at all.
    I think there are reasonable alternatives to prison for many offences, and that prison is an expensive way of making bad people worse.

    While his circumstances are more unusual, in that there probably is significant flight risk so remand probably required, but if he was a British citizen then he probably would be better punished by being placed on the sexual offenders register and a suspended sentence.

    If you really want to tackle the issue of preventing re-offending by paedophiles then systems like "circles of support" are probably the best system.

    https://circles-uk.org.uk/about/#our_impact
    Or deport them immediately if they have no right to be here. We can do it inside three days, apparently. No need for more than a week in jail for the offenders
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,829

    Reform back to a 33% high in our Voting Intention. The combined Green/Reform vote hits 44% - 5 points higher than the Tory/Labour vote

    ➡️ REF UK 33% (+2)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-1)
    🌳 CON 18% (-1)
    🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1)
    🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-)

    N 2,030 | 24 -27/10 | Change w 20/10

    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3m4dafzc2uc27

    Headline numbers aren't that interesting, but the supplementals show the Greens have the Maomentum.

    Only because YourSultanasParty haven't got their act together.

    Green vote will drop by a 1/3 maybe more if/when they ever do.

    I am starting to wonder if the fruit and nutters have missed their chance and allowed a calmer more telegenic bloke to steal all their limelight.
    Someone is going to have to provide a few details about Polanski's views and how his party actually acts. He and his party are not quite the cuddly outfit they like to pretend. They have, for instance, an approach to compliance with the law which is positively Trumpian and dangerous.

    It will have to be me I sense.

    But not this evening as I am on a train. I have had a very busy and enjoyable time in Edinburgh and, for anyone who can, the Andy Galsworthy exhibition is very well worth seeing. As is the main National Gallery which has some really superb art in there, including a portrait of one of my ancestors.

    The only problem was the heat in there. Unbelievably hot. At one point I thought I'd have to take my top off to stop me fainting. And, really, what would the problem with that have been? I'd still have been more dressed that those in the portraits. Anyway I didn't, which is why you have been spared the story of the Lady Lawyer in the Gallery shouting "Look, it's a very nice Rigby& Peller bra. What is your problem?!"

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,837
    stodge said:

    On other polling, the discrepency between YouGov and More In Common is astonishing.

    Putting the two numbers together for each party:

    ➡️ REF UK 27%/33%
    🌹 LAB 17%/21%
    🌳 CON 17%/18%
    🔶 LIB DEM 15%/12%
    🌍 GREEN 16%/11%
    🟡 SNP 3%/2%

    That level of divergence is huge and suggests very different sampling and weighting methodologies. It's not a question of who is "right" now but who (if either) will turn out to be right at the next GE.

    I think that Yougov’s house effects under-record support for the Right.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,837

    I see Starmer and Reeves have refused to rule out income tax rises.

    Which I presume means income tax rises are coming.

    Labour going sub-15%?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,494

    stodge said:

    Dutch exit poll in terms of projected seats, NOT votes:

    D66: 27
    PVV: 25
    VVD: 23
    GL/PVDA: 20
    CDA: 19
    JA21: 9
    Others: 27

    Fantastic result for D66 - their best ever. Much better from VVD than seemed likely but not so good for GL/PVDA but only an exit poll, real numbers to follow.

    And now for 6 months of negiotations over coalitions.
    Possibly not - D66, VVD and CDA have governed together in the recent past (they formed the last Rutte Government). They would have 67 so short of the 75 needed but they could possibly get support from minor parties.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,769

    I see Starmer and Reeves have refused to rule out income tax rises.

    Which I presume means income tax rises are coming.

    It might do.

    It used to be normal though for ministers to not publically comment on a budget in the weeks preceeding it being presented as it may influence market movements. This was a tradition that the last government often ignored.

    https://www.accountingweb.co.uk/community/blogs/philip-fisher/whatever-happened-to-budget-purdah



  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,494
    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    On other polling, the discrepency between YouGov and More In Common is astonishing.

    Putting the two numbers together for each party:

    ➡️ REF UK 27%/33%
    🌹 LAB 17%/21%
    🌳 CON 17%/18%
    🔶 LIB DEM 15%/12%
    🌍 GREEN 16%/11%
    🟡 SNP 3%/2%

    That level of divergence is huge and suggests very different sampling and weighting methodologies. It's not a question of who is "right" now but who (if either) will turn out to be right at the next GE.

    I think that Yougov’s house effects under-record support for the Right.
    I'm tempted to say - you would say that, wouldn't you?

    Isn't it also possible More In Common's methodologies are exaggerating Reform support?
  • I see Starmer and Reeves have refused to rule out income tax rises.

    Which I presume means income tax rises are coming.

    But but but the manifesto commitments.....and the last £40bn in tax rises that were to fix the foundations being a one off.....

    Robert Peston
    @Peston

    Big moment at #PMQs. Keir Starmer refused to say he would stand by Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance, VAT or corporation tax. It is increasingly clear the budget will include a significant rise in income tax - because it is the only clean way, ministers believe, to fill the £35bn budget black hole.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1983506906262995081



    Peston says income tax rise coming.

    I'm sure PBers will know what this means.

    I was getting worried taxes would rise, good to know they won't. Thanks Peston.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,569
    Has there been any two-party forced-choice polling since the last election?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,419
    stodge said:

    Dutch exit poll in terms of projected seats, NOT votes:

    D66: 27
    PVV: 25
    VVD: 23
    GL/PVDA: 20
    CDA: 19
    JA21: 9
    Others: 27

    Fantastic result for D66 - their best ever. Much better from VVD than seemed likely but not so good for GL/PVDA but only an exit poll, real numbers to follow.

    https://www.dutchnews.nl/2025/10/d66-top-the-nos-exit-poll-with-27-seats-pvv-second-on-25/
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