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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour
There’s consistent talk at the moment of UKIP being a bigger threat to LAB than CON. This is a point that Mr Farage wants to hammer home on virtually every occasion.
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Duplessis is larger than the UK and Holland combined.
Looks like the Quebec Liberals have won a landslide victory:
http://globalnews.ca/news/1251035/live-quebec-election-results-2014/
Until a few weeks ago it was neck-and-neck in the polls between the PQ and the Liberals:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_general_election,_2014#Opinion_polls
In the polls rather than the polling booth.... But are the blue team as at risk of taking the biggest hit from UKIP in the seats where it matters to them at the next GE, or is it the Labour party? When it has come to actual by elections, it seems like UKIP are performing far better in Labour/Libdem held seats due to a form of tactical protest voting that takes in both former Conservative and the C1,C2 and D demographic groups that might normally be expected to turn out to vote Labour if they turn out to vote at all? Quite a heady tactical voting cocktail if they realise that their vote will matter even more when targeted in Labour seats, so just maybe some of those former Conservatives voters are not feeling the love for the Labour party even more.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques-Cartier_(provincial_electoral_district)
https://mobile.twitter.com/CTVMontreal
Wasted votes for the Liberals in most Montreal ridings....
From what I recall, following every census, when reallocating parliamentary constituencies, regardless of population change, and then it was usually a loss, Quebec got an extra seat.
At that time there was a mass business flight to Toronto. Even the Bank of Montreal moved its head office to Toronto.
The PQ was then viewed as a threat. The Bureau de la langue Francaise was a real pain. I remember meetings in Montreal where everyone spoke perfect English, yet we had to hold meetings and produce minutes in French.
One day I was trying to buy a birthday card for my wife, and went into a charming shop in Quebec City, and asked the lady behind the counter for help. She refused (pretended not to understand), until I tried to speak my schoolboy French, after which she was happy to assist me in accentless English.
That's how it was in those days.
I was having dinner one night with my wife at a Greek restaurant in downtown Toronto, when in walked several men, obviously a man and bodyguards. He went round the tables, charming and smelling of cigarette smoke, introducing himself. It was Rene Levesque.
PQ (Marois): 9,396
Lib: 9,202
CAQ: 7,053
QS: 1,137
146/186 counted
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/montreal/Latest+updates+Quebec+votes+2014/9711327/story.html
Has anyone actually researched this?
The first of the big Retail Sales predictions for March are out: the Visa Europe UK Consumer Expenditure Index compiled by Markit and based on aggregate spending on consumer Visa debit and credit cards and a similar report from Barclaycard.
Visa's Conclusion: 2014 Q1 has been the best for retail sales since the Olympics quarter in 2012.
“Warm weather, growing consumer confidence, a buoyant property market and the end of the inflation squeeze – retailers are cheering all four as spending roared ahead in clothing, footwear and household goods in March. Publicans, hoteliers and restaurant owners will be raising a glass as well, with spending increasing at the quickest rate in over two years.
“The only cloud is over food and drink sellers, including the supermarkets, as spending in this category fell by 3.2% in March following a fall in February. The late Easter this year is giving no respite to the sector as it continues to gear up for a price war.”
With yesterday's news that new car registrations in March were at their highest since 2004, all might seem luvvly jubbly in the retail world, but the Barclaycard report, compiled on similar data to Visa's, had directly contradictory findings:
"Although inflation has fallen to 1.7%, household bills are up more than 3% and wage growth is stuck at around 1.4%, leaving consumers with little choice but to cut discretionary spending to balance the books," Barclaycard said.
The group said people were spending more online to get the best deals, although online growth dropped to its slowest rate since the end of 2011, at 6.4%.
Spending on groceries and petrol fell 5.2% against last year, but clothing and entertainment spending stayed strong.
So what is going on?
Both Barclays and Visa base their indices on payment card spend. However, Barclays's figures will be skewed towards credit card purchases whereas the Visa figures will record a higher proportion of debit card payments. What seems to be happening, particularly with non-food discretionary expenditure, is that consumers are less willing than before to use unsecured lending on credit cards to fund their purchases.
So quite a bit of churn in retail spend both in category and method of expenditure.
Visa Statistics and Yellow Box to follow in next post.
Visa: Headline findings
• Year-on-year household spending increased in March (+0.7%), following a slight increase in February (+0.3%).
• Month-on-month expenditure rose solidly in March (+1.6%), following a marginal reduction in February (-0.3%).
• Quarterly spending figures signalled that underlying expenditure improved in March (+1.2%), after a slight deterioration in February (-0.5%).
• Non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year expenditure continued to rise solidly through Online spending channels (+4.0%), declined through Mail/Telephone Order categories (-2.2%), and was relatively unchanged in Face-to-Face categories (+0.1%).
Table
Cameron is leading a Coalition government in its first term following three terms under a Labour government the latter of which gave the country its deepest and most long lasting recession in modern memory and brought the country to its highest ever level of indebtedness.
Electors in 2015 may be rather less willing to disregard the importance of sound fiscal management and economic growth than they were in 1997.
Having said that, conversations in pubs and shops suggest that there is the start of a "feelgood factor”, although there are still a lot of people struggling.
Bloomberg in a review article on the UK economy summarises:
U.K. pay growth accelerated to the fastest pace in almost seven years at the end of the first quarter as companies reported stronger overseas demand.
An index of wage growth for full-time employees rose to 62.2 in March, the highest since July 2007, from 61.7 in February, KPMG LLP and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation said in London today. Separately, the British Chambers of Commerce said measures of export sales at manufacturers and services companies increased in the first quarter, as did their employment intentions.
The strengthening of pay growth coupled with cooling inflation may support consumer spending, the main driver of the economy in 2013. The government and the Bank of England are counting on a pickup in exports and investment to keep momentum in the recovery. Industrial production probably rose 0.3 percent in February, economists said in a survey before a report today.
“Growth is strengthening in the short term, but challenges persist and, despite this progress, the recovery is not yet secure,” said BCC Chief Economist David Kern. “U.K. growth is still reliant on consumer spending, driven by a resurgent housing market and a declining savings ratio.”
Business investment, both foreign and domestic, and growth in exports tend to lag in an economic recovery. Early indicators such as housing market revivals, consumer spending and borrowing are the kick starts. They generate the confidence and increased demand which provides incentives to invest.
If the current government is to be successful in sustaining economic growth, then the boost provided by consumer spending must be replaced over the medium term as there is a limit to how long household savings (or credit lines) can be raided.
Recent signs are positive in business investment (good growth through 2013), inbound foreign direct investment and in exports (if gas & oil extraction; slow recovery in investment and wholesale banking; and, depressed returns and liquidation of overseas investments are excluded). So patience is all. Especially as two of the three exclusions should recover in the medium term and even gas extraction has a fracking future in the longer term.
As for "highest ever level of indebtedness", you quote credit card figures to illustrate sound economic management?
Nice formatting of your previous post, though.
In today's poll which is favourable to UKIP, the 2010 VI splits (ignoring WNV and DK) show:
Cons have lost 19% of their 2010 VI to UKIP (this is high compared to recent polls)
Labour have lost 7% and
LibDems have lost 9%.
So the Cons:LAB ratio for UKIP defections is less than 3 to 1.
Regionally the strongest UKIP support comes from Midlands/Wales (19%), Rest of South (17%) and then North (13%).
John Major's government delivered average quarterly GDP growth in excess of 1%, making his five year term the most successful in terms of growth of any in the post war period.
By contrast, Maggie's first government (1979-83) delivered only half a per cent growth in aggregate across the whole term.
You would never have known that from pub conversations.
On fiscal management, debt did increase in the first half of Major's 1992 government but was brought under control and started to decline in the final two years.
In terms of lowest debt per GDP, it was Brown and Labour, who achieved that in the 1997 government, after committing to Major's expenditure plans for a term which also enjoyed peak North Sea output in volume and value.
It was not until 2002-3 on government debt and 1998-99 on household debt, after Tony B. let Mrs Rochester out of the No 10 attic, that fiscal management started to show symptoms of insanity.
Labour as sound fiscal managers? Again not a meme you will hear in pubs but undoubtedly true at least for the first three years of their 1997 term (if you exclude household debt) and five years to 2002 (if you only look at government debt).
I agree that things were getting better in the later Major years but it was "too little too late”. Had Black Wednesday occurred later in the electoral cycle I suspect that the Tory bloodbath would have been even greater.
And I don’t take my views on Labour or Tory financial management from my friends in pubs; I simply listen to their views on how they’re feeling, where they think they can afford holidays and so on.
Tip to all Peebies (including myself): you can write a credible post, or you can write a post that makes you feel good about yourself. But probably not both at once...
The Visa and Barclaycard consumer spending indices are compiled from aggregate expenditure on payment cards in the UK. This will be a mixture of transactions on debit cards (accessing consumer deposits) and credit cards (sometimes but not always accessing unsecured credit lines). the use of cards as opposed to say cash or cheques does not tell us much about whether current salaries, savings or credit lines are being used.
Overall 'fiscal' management by a government in its narrowest sense refers to management of public finances (government and public sector), particularly taxes and revenues. But it can have a broader sense extending across all three sectors (government, public and private) and including both funding (revenues and borrowing) and expenditure (current, capital etc.). In my comments on Major and Brown was using the term 'fiscal' in its broader sense.
Current best prices
Yes 10/3 (YouWin)
No 3/10 (Betdaq)
Now out to 10 at Betfair (their most votes market).
Certainly this is going to be a more interesting year for political punters than last year.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/election-quebec-2014
Difficult to disagree with the nominations for Blame Monkeys.
But I think you also have to give some credit to Salmond for making the SNP more than just a protest party, but actually a credible, successful and popular party of government.
Liberals gain power with 70/125 seats.
Farage Delenda Est.
(Which is terrible Latin I know)
I was using 'pub conversations' as a generic designator of received popular wisdom rather than personally impugning your data sources!
Black Wednesday had an odd effect on me. I had just bought a flat in London on an horrendous but interest subsidised mortgage so I was lucky to just see rather than feel the impact of the rate rises. I was also mostly, about two thirds of the year, abroad during this time.
But I still think it has gained a weight in left wing mythology which is not justified by its real economic impact. The impact of high rates was relatively short lived and didn't much affect the long trend of bank rate across the term:
UKIP are certainly a threat to Labour if they are taking votes from the Lib Dems and the Conservatives that might otherwise have gone to the Official Opposition. Sure, I'm not suggesting that people like Sean Fear would be contemplating voting Labour if UKIP weren't around, but looking at the effect of UKIP solely in respect to changes on the 2010 votes is misleading because it was Labour's nadir.
If UKIP were really smart they might back a minimum wage increase. It would fit with a "make work pay" message, but also appeal to the left-leaning WWC.
Fast forward to 2010 and the result was:
Labour - 33%
Tory - 31%
LD - 22%
Others - 14%
(Others included Ukip 6% and BNP 5%)
Are Labour really going to hoover up the votes and get back to well over 40% of the vote? Maybe, maybe not. If Ukip surge, it will also be in seats like this. There are plenty of other seats like it, look also at Dudley North.
Actually, if I was Cammo, I'd give UKIP a clear run in Doncaster North...
It's not surprising that the Tories are losing most voters to Ukip as they have the most 2010 voters to lose anyway and plenty of people are pissed off with the party in government. But come 2020 they might actually be in a position to challenge Labour
Perception does play a significant part of how people “remember” events!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc007520-be5d-11e3-961f-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2yESEmi33
The increase to 15% was reversed in under 24 hours followed by as you show a rapid fall in interest rates.
If it hadn't been for Black Wednesday then thousands more business would have gone bankrupt and tens of thousands more homes would have been repossessed.
What was damaging politically was the image of the government being not of control of its economic policy rather than the beneficial effects that the forced change to its economic policy brought.
The damage has already been done to the Tories: the next 5% from them will be progressively harder to secure because you are coming up against the likes of Mr Nabavi who, I suspect, is unlike to be a natural UKIP supporter.
The next targets are those tribal loyal Labour voters that EdM doesn't enthuse plus those former Labour voter who have given up voting for anyone. One is a direct challenge to Labour, the other is competing with Labour for a similar pool of voters.
'The loudest cheers for the break-up of Britain would be from our adversaries and from our enemies', 'cataclysmic', 'forces of darkness'.
Wafi.
All I would add is that is that the image was of a tired government not in control of its own party more than one not in control of economic policy. The mistake was not in the government's response to Black Wednesday but the decision to enter the ERM in the first place.
Cameron is right not to debate Farage. He has nothing to gain and plenty to lose.
As I explained downthread today is "Turquoise Tuesday" which means all blue on blue fire will be lost to the background.
TSE
I thought the real issue was whether the parents were able to recognise which of their children were living at home.
Bloomberg overnight:
Industrial production probably rose 0.3% in February, economists said in a survey before a report today.
ONS at 9:30 a.m. this morning:
Total production increased by 0.9% between January 2014 and February 2014. There were upward contributions from three of the main sectors, with manufacturing being the largest contributor increasing by 1.0%, its third consecutive monthly rise.
Champagne fuelled dancing in the aisles of the City trading floors today.
Full headlines from ONS report:
• Production output increased by 2.7% between February 2013 and February 2014. This reflects increases of 3.8% in manufacturing; 8.5% in water supply, sewerage & waste management and 0.2% in mining & quarrying.
• The only decrease was in electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning output, which decreased by 8.8% between February 2013 and February 2014. This was attributed to the average temperature in February 2014 being warmer than February 2013.
• The main manufacturing components contributing to the increase between February 2013 and February 2014 were the manufacture of rubber & plastic products & other non-metallic mineral products; the manufacture of transport equipment and the manufacture of machinery & equipment not elsewhere classified.
• Total production increased by 0.9% between January 2014 and February 2014. There were upward contributions from three of the main sectors, with manufacturing being the largest contributor increasing by 1.0%, its third consecutive monthly rise.
• The main components contributing to the increase in manufacturing between January 2014 and February 2014 were the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products & pharmaceutical preparations; the manufacture of transport equipment and the manufacture of food products, beverages & tobacco.
• In this release the earliest period open for revision was January 2014. There is no impact on previously published GDP estimates from revisions reported in this release.
Even the Lib Dems are getting excited. In honour of St. Vince they are proposing that today be referred to henceforward as "Turquoise Tuesday"!
Sometimes it's more a gradual drift, as in the last German Federal elections.
It's actually rather unusual for nothing much to change over a year, although that too can certainly happen. The 2005 UK general election was one good example.
SIR – Before ministers are appointed to the Cabinet, they should be required to sit a short intelligence test:
1. You have two homes and spend more nights each year in one than the other. Which one is your main home?
2. Can you recognise whether your parents are also living in one of your homes?
Guy Smith
Reigate, Surrey
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/10750669/The-Maria-Miller-scandal-is-damaging-the-Conservatives-electoral-hopes.html
We should remember that there was no need for an election to be called after just 2 years of the parliament , it was only the desire of Marois and PQ for a majority government that led them to call it . The polls were not massively saying that they were certain to do so .
.....The tactic comes after last week’s revelatons in The Independent that BNP activists are trying to woo support by taking mobile food banks to poor areas – echoing the Greek extremists Golden Dawn.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/mod-condemns-immoral-bnp-for-exploiting-brutal-murder-of-lee-rigby-in-campaign-video-9244883.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10751255/Tory-MPs-call-for-Miller-to-be-sacked.html
"A source* said senior members of the 1922 Committee were “in no doubt that this is absolutely toxic” for the party. Mr Brady would “make that very clear” to Mr Cameron. "
* Very Dan Hodges, I do say.
Populus EU poll took place after last week's debate
CON 27
LAB 32
UKIP 25
LD 10
GRN 3
SNP/PC 4
They are all at it:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10749902/Jeremy-Browne-Under-Nick-Clegg-weve-turned-timid.html
What price they're just guessing?!
Obviously this means Chelsea will win tonight, but not qualify.