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Apparently Labour’s choice of deputy leader can lose them the next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,965
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,349
    edited 12:49PM

    How much you need to earn, to net take home 10k a month

    🇬🇧 United Kingdom £205,000

    🇮🇹 Italy £198,000

    🇫🇷 France £172,000

    🇺🇸 United States £165,000

    🇨🇳 China £161,000

    🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates (Dubai) £120,000

    No wonder so many people are leaving the U.K. for Dubai

    https://x.com/robprogressive/status/1979438750737346981

    I've no idea if the figures are accurate or even representative. What struck me is the cluster of France, USA & China, and the higher 2-node cluster of Britain and Italy.

    The problem these days is there are so many other taxes that can and have been imposed in different countries. Even within the US, some have high additional state income taxes (why all rich people who appaear to be from NY are resident in Florida), others have zero, but can have extreme high yearly taxes on your property.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,850
    edited 12:52PM
    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Donny's peace didn't last long.
    .

    To the delight of many, no doubt.

    He got the hostages back. All credit to him for that.
    Who's delighted by it?
    Depressing predictability is my response.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,557
    edited 12:50PM
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Donny's peace didn't last long.
    .

    To the delight of many, no doubt.

    He got the hostages back. All credit to him for that.
    Although we still seem to be struggling to progress with these sausages the PM was concerned about.
    Do we ?

    All the living ones are back and many of the dead ones. I don’t doubt it’s more problematic dealing with the cadavers and where they are. They are coming back in dribs and drabs as they are located. I suspect thst is correct and it is not a game.
    Really? I thought that was the hostages.

    I'm slightly intrigued at this idea of living sausages as well. Is that a new CMOT Dibbler venture?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,349
    edited 12:55PM
    Taz said:

    Bloody snowflakes,

    Gary's Economics - Goodbye and Good Luck
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja9dTjY3uWU

    Does one video a week for a few months (and has a team behind him) and says too tirrrrrreeddd.....needs to go on holiday for months now.

    Compare to Chris Williamson, 3 videos a week, all long form interviews, week in week out, for 7 years straight....

    Is he still selling the shopping bags while he’s away ?

    The dirty (not so) secret thing about his channel is he didn't build it as this wealth tax campaign, it was built by a massive publishing house that funded it, did PR, advertised it, got him on all the tv / podcasts, in order to sell his book (which was full of lies). As soon as they had gone through the cycle of the hardback and paperback, they cut all support for the channel and immediately Mr Millionaire was begged his viewers to fund him. I don't know if that video is still up as it looked absolutely terrible, millionaire off the back of a big successful book, please pay £5 a month to watch my 4 videos a month, to fight the man.

    Compare to a Chris Williamson, the lad lost his job in COVID, and built that thing from the ground up from his bedroom with the help of one mate and by sheer hardwork. Many many years of slogging it before it got massive.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,557
    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Donny's peace didn't last long.
    .

    To the delight of many, no doubt.

    He got the hostages back. All credit to him for that.
    Who's delighted by it?
    The far right nutters in Netanyahu's cabinet.

    Netanyahu and his defence lawyers.

    Hamas and Iran.

    The people being shot by Hamas in Gaza.

    After that, I'm struggling.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,420

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Whilst I concur at what point do the Great British Public have to take their share of the blame for this rather than just lamenting the politicians and parties. Our preferences for low taxes, high spending and fairy tales make politics a simple shallow game and governance an unwinnable one.
    Yes.

    The public are never wrong, or so you would have politicians believe.
    But we are, and we often do, make the wrong choice.

    Whether that be in referendum or General Elections.
    We frequently make the wrong choice. And then blame anyone but ourselves when it does all go to shit.
    At the same time, I can only think of one GE in my lifetime where I feel the public made the categorically “wrong” decision - 2017. And that’s only that it should have been a Tory majority - the plurality still voted for May.

    May’s campaign was deeply flawed but did try to deal with serious problems, such as solving the care issue. Instead, too many people voted for free stuff with Magic Grandpa.

    If 2017 had resulted in a modest Tory majority of 50 or so, I think we’d have been spared a lot of the psychodrama of the following 6-7 years and we might have actually got a government that sorted a few things out.
    It is not about making the right or wrong choice at a GE but about creating an overton window for politicians that is impossible to implement.

    Scrap the triple lock? No way!
    Increase taxes? Never!
    Reduce public services? Why would we want that?
    Give us more nurses and care workers but make sure they are not immigrants and that the salaries don't go up.
    I still firmly believe that a good political communicator can sell difficult decisions to the electorate. We just haven’t seen politicians of that calibre for some time.
    Whoever is the leader of the Conservative and Labour party with a bright young MP who wanted to talk about putting up taxes or cutting services would ensure they remain a backbencher. That is the logical outcome of the current landscape and what is happening.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,579
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Donny's peace didn't last long.
    .

    To the delight of many, no doubt.

    He got the hostages back. All credit to him for that.
    He did, Taz, and he deserves credit for that. It should however also be acknowledged that he used the same plan that Biden had used without success. The difference this time round was that he had more leverage with the Israelis. You might then generously allow that this was due to his relationship with them, or you might think it had more to do with the fact that so many world leaders were so balled off with the Israelis that they had little choice but to give way this time.

    Personally I think it's more the latter than the former but there's a wide range of reasonable views on that one.
    I think it’s the latter too but then I get the impression with the Israelis they’re a bit like Millwall FC, as we’ve being doing soccer, basically ‘no one likes us and we don’t care’

    Also one of the few good things from his first 4 years was the Abraham accords. I am not an expert on the Middle East but I do get the impression many Arab nations want normal relations with Israel and to move on past old conflicts.
    Yes, the feeling in the region is that they all want to move away from war, and expanding the Abraham Accords would be an acknowledgment of this. Countries who trade with each other generally don’t fight with each other.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,349
    edited 1:01PM
    The Home Office confirmed that the returns this week had taken the total number deported under the deal to 42.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15206349/Dozens-migrants-returned-France-Labour-Britain-small-boats.html

    It not supposed to be one-in-one-out per week....

    Usual pattern again this past week, Saturday is the big day.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,965

    The Home Office confirmed that the returns this week had taken the total number deported under the deal to 42.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15206349/Dozens-migrants-returned-France-Labour-Britain-small-boats.html

    It not supposed to be one-in-one-out per week....

    Usual pattern again this past week, Saturday is the big day.

    It has utterly failed as a disincentive.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,965

    Taz said:

    Bloody snowflakes,

    Gary's Economics - Goodbye and Good Luck
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja9dTjY3uWU

    Does one video a week for a few months (and has a team behind him) and says too tirrrrrreeddd.....needs to go on holiday for months now.

    Compare to Chris Williamson, 3 videos a week, all long form interviews, week in week out, for 7 years straight....

    Is he still selling the shopping bags while he’s away ?

    The dirty (not so) secret thing about his channel is he didn't build it as this wealth tax campaign, it was built by a massive publishing house that funded it, did PR, advertised it, got him on all the tv / podcasts, in order to sell his book (which was full of lies). As soon as they had gone through the cycle of the hardback and paperback, they cut all support for the channel and immediately Mr Millionaire was begged his viewers to fund him. I don't know if that video is still up as it looked absolutely terrible, millionaire off the back of a big successful book, please pay £5 a month to watch my 4 videos a month, to fight the man.

    Compare to a Chris Williamson, the lad lost his job in COVID, and built that thing from the ground up from his bedroom with the help of one mate and by sheer hardwork. Many many years of slogging it before it got massive.
    This is the idiot that viewcode introduced us to last week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,850
    edited 1:11PM

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that.

    Kemi has 6 more months to see if her neoliberal on economics, culture wars on social issues starts to see the Conservatives rise in the polls. If not then I predict Tory MPs will remove her after losses in the May local elections and elect Cleverly to replace her
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,110
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,563
    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Donny's peace didn't last long.
    .

    To the delight of many, no doubt.

    He got the hostages back. All credit to him for that.
    Who's delighted by it?
    Depressing predictability is my response.
    I recall the gullible here and elsewhere were berating lefties for not cheering Trump to the rafters for his wonderful deal.

    I gather the IDF has been killing a dozen Palestinians a day since the big, beautiful peace deal. Obviously the term cease fire has a different meaning in Hebrew to the commonly accepted one.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,322
    edited 1:17PM
    Just for Taz, it's all happening in Kent.

    From the Leader from Kent CC:

    'They are looking at us and judging us every single day' (Check)
    'Nigel knows that, and he is super aware that we are the flagship council' (Check)
    'When it comes to making the big decisions, and I'm afraid LGR is one of those big decisions, sometimes I may make a decision that may not be liked by everybody in the group. But I'm afraid you're just going to have to fucking suck it up, OK?' (Errrrr.....)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/18/suck-it-up-leaked-video-exposes-bitter-infighting-at-reform-uks-flagship-kent-council

    There's something here about not behaving when a public figure as you did before, which applies to calling neighbours n****r multiple times, weeing on garden walls in public (this may have been from before, without checking), making lewd remarks to women around the Council offices, assaulting people, and various other items.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,557

    The Home Office confirmed that the returns this week had taken the total number deported under the deal to 42.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15206349/Dozens-migrants-returned-France-Labour-Britain-small-boats.html

    It not supposed to be one-in-one-out per week....

    Usual pattern again this past week, Saturday is the big day.

    It has utterly failed as a disincentive.
    Although to be fair to Starmer that is 38 more people than were sent to Rwanda.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,145
    I can see that having a senior figure in the party who isn't bound by collective responsibility does give that person wider latitude than perhaps is desirable. This might especially be the case for a Labour party in government which is obliged to do things that are distinctly non-Labour in style. I didn't join the Labour party to do xyz.

    Good afternoon, everybody.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,850
    edited 1:16PM
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,349
    edited 1:19PM
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Interesting from the interview with JL Partners polling bod he said the Cameron type Tories don't exist anymore in any great numbers. They are either now solidly Lib Dem voters (and have been for nearly 10 years) and the Tories number is being held up with oldies who were never Cameron fans but remain suspicious of Farage.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,778
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 26
    MattW said:

    Just for Taz, it's all happening in Kent.

    From the Leader from Kent CC:

    'They are looking at us and judging us every single day' (Check)
    'Nigel knows that, and he is super aware that we are the flagship council' (Check)
    'When it comes to making the big decisions, and I'm afraid LGR is one of those big decisions, sometimes I may make a decision that may not be liked by everybody in the group. But I'm afraid you're just going to have to fucking suck it up, OK?' (Errrrr.....)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/18/suck-it-up-leaked-video-exposes-bitter-infighting-at-reform-uks-flagship-kent-council

    There's something here about not behaving when a public figure as you did before, which applies to calling neighbours n****r multiple times, weeing on garden walls in public (this may have been from before, without checking), making lewd remarks to women around the Council offices, assaulting people, and various other items.

    That's an extraordinary video. I have sat in more local authority group meetings than i care to remember, i mean, literally hundreds, and I don't remember a situation in which the Leader of the group (and when majority seats, Leader of the council) didnt subject their decisions that were contentious to a majority vote, and then abide by that decision. Never.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Donny's peace didn't last long.
    .

    To the delight of many, no doubt.

    He got the hostages back. All credit to him for that.
    Although we still seem to be struggling to progress with these sausages the PM was concerned about.
    Do we ?

    All the living ones are back and many of the dead ones. I don’t doubt it’s more problematic dealing with the cadavers and where they are. They are coming back in dribs and drabs as they are located. I suspect thst is correct and it is not a game.
    Really? I thought that was the hostages.

    I'm slightly intrigued at this idea of living sausages as well. Is that a new CMOT Dibbler venture?
    Is CMOT that artist who lost out on best LP at the Mercury’s ?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,545
    edited 1:28PM
    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,349
    edited 1:31PM
    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    I doubt most people even follow things that closely that they know who runs their council and it doesn't seem to have had much of an impact in the past e.g. Labour busting Birmingham council*, Labour still won lots of MPs there and the West Midlands Mayoral post.

    * and that was absolutely on them, yes they lost the equal pay dispute, but they didn't budget for the payouts while wasting £10 millions on a broken IT system.

    I am sure plenty of Tory, Lib Dem and Green examples of piss poor council management but come the GE still voted in an MP for that party. Brighton springs to mind for the Greens.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,229

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Interesting from the interview with JL Partners polling bod he said the Cameron type Tories don't exist anymore in any great numbers. They are either now solidly Lib Dem voters (and have been for nearly 10 years) and the Tories number is being held up with oldies who were never Cameron fans but remain suspicious of Farage.
    Bear in mind those Cameron Tories will be lost to the LibDems the second they join a Labour-led govt in the event of a hung parliament which seems pretty likely. A silver lining for the Tories in a pretty dark-complexioned sky.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,545
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Donny's peace didn't last long.
    .

    To the delight of many, no doubt.

    He got the hostages back. All credit to him for that.
    Although we still seem to be struggling to progress with these sausages the PM was concerned about.
    Do we ?

    All the living ones are back and many of the dead ones. I don’t doubt it’s more problematic dealing with the cadavers and where they are. They are coming back in dribs and drabs as they are located. I suspect thst is correct and it is not a game.
    Really? I thought that was the hostages.

    I'm slightly intrigued at this idea of living sausages as well. Is that a new CMOT Dibbler venture?
    Is CMOT that artist who lost out on best LP at the Mercury’s ?
    CMOPT Dibbler ls Discworld's most enterprisingly successful unsuccessful entrepreneur
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    MattW said:

    Just for Taz, it's all happening in Kent.

    From the Leader from Kent CC:

    'They are looking at us and judging us every single day' (Check)
    'Nigel knows that, and he is super aware that we are the flagship council' (Check)
    'When it comes to making the big decisions, and I'm afraid LGR is one of those big decisions, sometimes I may make a decision that may not be liked by everybody in the group. But I'm afraid you're just going to have to fucking suck it up, OK?' (Errrrr.....)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/18/suck-it-up-leaked-video-exposes-bitter-infighting-at-reform-uks-flagship-kent-council

    There's something here about not behaving when a public figure as you did before, which applies to calling neighbours n****r multiple times, weeing on garden walls in public (this may have been from before, without checking), making lewd remarks to women around the Council offices, assaulting people, and various other items.

    Is it as exciting as that Jackie Weaver moron who has had her 15 minutes of fame ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Donny's peace didn't last long.
    .

    To the delight of many, no doubt.

    He got the hostages back. All credit to him for that.
    Although we still seem to be struggling to progress with these sausages the PM was concerned about.
    Do we ?

    All the living ones are back and many of the dead ones. I don’t doubt it’s more problematic dealing with the cadavers and where they are. They are coming back in dribs and drabs as they are located. I suspect thst is correct and it is not a game.
    Really? I thought that was the hostages.

    I'm slightly intrigued at this idea of living sausages as well. Is that a new CMOT Dibbler venture?
    Is CMOT that artist who lost out on best LP at the Mercury’s ?
    CMOPT Dibbler ls Discworld's most enterprisingly successful unsuccessful entrepreneur
    I’ll be honest, I haven’t the foggiest what that means,
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 26

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Interesting from the interview with JL Partners polling bod he said the Cameron type Tories don't exist anymore in any great numbers. They are either now solidly Lib Dem voters (and have been for nearly 10 years) and the Tories number is being held up with oldies who were never Cameron fans but remain suspicious of Farage.
    Bear in mind those Cameron Tories will be lost to the LibDems the second they join a Labour-led govt in the event of a hung parliament which seems pretty likely. A silver lining for the Tories in a pretty dark-complexioned sky.
    So much is in flux. It's like brand loyalty for energy companies and old utility companies and old banks. Once youve broken the British Gas, British Telecom, Northern Electric, HSBC default, it no longer matters if it's Octopus Energy, Monzo or Fibrus.
    You go to the one that presents the best offer, and a reputation it can carry out its promises.

    There is no golden rule that come closer to 2029 they'll be swing back to Labour or the Cons. As someone pointed out on here Reform and the Greens, who are two cheeks of the same bottom presenting simple solutions to immensely difficult policy issues, and lying excessively through their teeth about how achievable they are could end up being the Government and the Opposition at the next GE.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,229

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    I doubt most people even follow things that closely that they know who runs their council and it doesn't seem to have had much of an impact in the past e.g. Labour busting Birmingham council*, Labour still won lots of MPs there and the West Midlands Mayoral post.

    * and that was absolutely on them, yes they lost the equal pay dispute, but they didn't budget for the payouts while wasting £10 millions on a broken IT system.

    I am sure plenty of Tory, Lib Dem and Green examples of piss poor council management but come the GE still voted in an MP for that party. Brighton springs to mind for the Greens.
    Well, yes but...the other parties, esp the Tories, will use the lack of experience, unpreparedness of Reform as a major attack line. And it's a definite vulnerability which voters will be inclined to believe. It's really not so much of a problem for the other parties. Come the actual general election could well lead to second thoughts which is why I suspect Reform will under-perform - another reason being anti-Farage tactical voting.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,674
    Battlebus said:

    I just think it's adorable that someone thinks Labour hasn't lost the next election.

    FYI There are 272 Constituencies which have elected the same party in 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2024. None are Reform. So there are likely only 378 Constituencies in play. Odds on a hung Parliament or a minority Labour should be good.
    Good point. I have no clue what will be the result of the next election, and nor does anyone else, but among the front runners is a Labour minority/Labour majority/Labour led coalition.

    My guess (and it is only a guess) is that between them they have over a 40% chance.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,776
    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    There is indeed, a ton of wishful thinking about Reform, on this site.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,250

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Interesting from the interview with JL Partners polling bod he said the Cameron type Tories don't exist anymore in any great numbers. They are either now solidly Lib Dem voters (and have been for nearly 10 years) and the Tories number is being held up with oldies who were never Cameron fans but remain suspicious of Farage.
    Bear in mind those Cameron Tories will be lost to the LibDems the second they join a Labour-led govt in the event of a hung parliament which seems pretty likely. A silver lining for the Tories in a pretty dark-complexioned sky.
    That requires there to be a Conservative party to go back to after 2029. And right now, it's not obvious that's going to be the case.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,349
    edited 1:40PM

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    I doubt most people even follow things that closely that they know who runs their council and it doesn't seem to have had much of an impact in the past e.g. Labour busting Birmingham council*, Labour still won lots of MPs there and the West Midlands Mayoral post.

    * and that was absolutely on them, yes they lost the equal pay dispute, but they didn't budget for the payouts while wasting £10 millions on a broken IT system.

    I am sure plenty of Tory, Lib Dem and Green examples of piss poor council management but come the GE still voted in an MP for that party. Brighton springs to mind for the Greens.
    Well, yes but...the other parties, esp the Tories, will use the lack of experience, unpreparedness of Reform as a major attack line. And it's a definite vulnerability which voters will be inclined to believe. It's really not so much of a problem for the other parties. Come the actual general election could well lead to second thoughts which is why I suspect Reform will under-perform - another reason being anti-Farage tactical voting.
    I think the anti-Farage tactical voting is a bigger problem for Reform. All the other parties will point at Trump and say look....chaos....which is what obviously happened in Canada (despite there the right leaning leader being less of a Trump fan boy).

    JL Partners polling bod said his feeling was Labour hanging on to government at the next GE for this reason even with a very low national polling number.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,923
    edited 1:46PM
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that.

    Kemi has 6 more months to see if her neoliberal on economics, culture wars on social issues starts to see the Conservatives rise in the polls. If not then I predict Tory MPs will remove her after losses in the May local elections and elect Cleverly to replace her
    Altrincham is just the sort of seat I could see going LibDem if they could get a foot in the door. I think there will be a more nuanced vote from left and centre left voters next time. Reform are marmite and people will work out how to stop them in many seats, that’s assuming they don’t collapse in the next 3 years. Or merge with the Jenrick led Tories.
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 26
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    Mr Henig is the reason I joined the Conservative party... No really.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,965
    edited 1:49PM
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that.

    Kemi has 6 more months to see if her neoliberal on economics, culture wars on social issues starts to see the Conservatives rise in the polls. If not then I predict Tory MPs will remove her after losses in the May local elections and elect Cleverly to replace her
    Immigration is a perfect example of where your analysis falls down. This is AI so DYOR, but:
    According to a recent Ipsos poll conducted between April 11-13, 2025, two-thirds (67%) of Britons believe the total number of people entering the UK is too high, with 43% stating it is "much too high". Another poll by YouGov, conducted in May 2025, found that 70% of the public think immigration is too high, while only 3% believe it is too low.
    Why would the Tories, whose activist base, historical support base and traditional voters, are all to the right on immigration, tack the other way just as 67-70% of the voting public think the numbers coming in are too high? It would be utterly loony. Even the Lib Dems are having to come up with their own (useless) plans to stop the boats. Tacking right on immigration isn't trying to park tanks on Reform's lawn, it is an appropriate action taken to shut down that debate so that the Tories can outperform Reform on other issues like the economy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    edited 1:53PM

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    Mr Henig is the reason I joined the Conservative party... No really.
    Really, why ?

    I always found him quite pleasant although not caring for his brand of Durham City first politics. Especially as his seat was in N Durham.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,850
    edited 1:54PM

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that.

    Kemi has 6 more months to see if her neoliberal on economics, culture wars on social issues starts to see the Conservatives rise in the polls. If not then I predict Tory MPs will remove her after losses in the May local elections and elect Cleverly to replace her
    Immigration is a perfect example of where your analysis falls down. This is AI so DYOR, but:
    According to a recent Ipsos poll conducted between April 11-13, 2025, two-thirds (67%) of Britons believe the total number of people entering the UK is too high, with 43% stating it is "much too high". Another poll by YouGov, conducted in May 2025, found that 70% of the public think immigration is too high, while only 3% believe it is too low.
    Why would the Tories, whose activist base, historical support base and traditional voters, are all to the right on immigration, tack the other way just as 67-70% of the voting public think the numbers coming in are too high? It would be utterly loony. Even the Lib Dems are having to come up with their own (useless) plans to stop the boats. Tacking right on immigration isn't trying to park tanks on Reform's lawn, it is an appropriate action taken to shut down that debate so that the Tories can outperform Reform on other issues like the economy.
    So what? The stats don't lie 'Looking in more detail, non-EU+ immigration has dropped by more than 350,000 since a year earlier. '
    https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/05/22/taking-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fall-in-net-migration/

    That is down to Sunak and Cleverly mainly.

    As I said Kemi has 6 months to show her leave the ECHR and scrap net zero policies etc are seeing poll gains from Reform, if not she will be dumped for Cleverly who with Stride will keep the Stamp Duty cut and outperform Reform and Labour on the economy anyway and can at least get tactical Labour and LD votes in Tory seats against Reform
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,850

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Interesting from the interview with JL Partners polling bod he said the Cameron type Tories don't exist anymore in any great numbers. They are either now solidly Lib Dem voters (and have been for nearly 10 years) and the Tories number is being held up with oldies who were never Cameron fans but remain suspicious of Farage.
    There are enough in Tory held seats still though who would hold their noses and vote Conservative for a Cleverly led Tories say in order to beat Reform
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,674

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    I doubt most people even follow things that closely that they know who runs their council and it doesn't seem to have had much of an impact in the past e.g. Labour busting Birmingham council*, Labour still won lots of MPs there and the West Midlands Mayoral post.

    * and that was absolutely on them, yes they lost the equal pay dispute, but they didn't budget for the payouts while wasting £10 millions on a broken IT system.

    I am sure plenty of Tory, Lib Dem and Green examples of piss poor council management but come the GE still voted in an MP for that party. Brighton springs to mind for the Greens.
    Well, yes but...the other parties, esp the Tories, will use the lack of experience, unpreparedness of Reform as a major attack line. And it's a definite vulnerability which voters will be inclined to believe. It's really not so much of a problem for the other parties. Come the actual general election could well lead to second thoughts which is why I suspect Reform will under-perform - another reason being anti-Farage tactical voting.
    I think the anti-Farage tactical voting is a bigger problem for Reform. All the other parties will point at Trump and say look....chaos....which is what obviously happened in Canada (despite there the right leaning leader being less of a Trump fan boy).

    JL Partners polling bod said his feeling was Labour hanging on to government at the next GE for this reason even with a very low national polling number.
    An interesting question in the next election is the status of a Tory vote, and will that status be a variable geometry.

    Will voting Tory in 2028/9 be:
    A vote for a Tory MP who will be part of a Reform coalition
    A vote for a Tory MP in order to stop Reform winning the seat
    A vote for a Tory MP who will be part of an anti Reform coalition
    or (this feels a bit fanciful)
    A vote for a Tory MP who will be one of the 326 MPs forming the Tory government.

    As someone who always voted Tory (but not 2024) in GEs, I feel that I can't vote Tory unless I know the answer, but that it is essential to Tories not to tell us. I am not sure if that is a problem for me, the Tories or the country.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,965

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    I doubt most people even follow things that closely that they know who runs their council and it doesn't seem to have had much of an impact in the past e.g. Labour busting Birmingham council*, Labour still won lots of MPs there and the West Midlands Mayoral post.

    * and that was absolutely on them, yes they lost the equal pay dispute, but they didn't budget for the payouts while wasting £10 millions on a broken IT system.

    I am sure plenty of Tory, Lib Dem and Green examples of piss poor council management but come the GE still voted in an MP for that party. Brighton springs to mind for the Greens.
    Well, yes but...the other parties, esp the Tories, will use the lack of experience, unpreparedness of Reform as a major attack line. And it's a definite vulnerability which voters will be inclined to believe. It's really not so much of a problem for the other parties. Come the actual general election could well lead to second thoughts which is why I suspect Reform will under-perform - another reason being anti-Farage tactical voting.
    I think the anti-Farage tactical voting is a bigger problem for Reform. All the other parties will point at Trump and say look....chaos....which is what obviously happened in Canada (despite there the right leaning leader being less of a Trump fan boy).

    JL Partners polling bod said his feeling was Labour hanging on to government at the next GE for this reason even with a very low national polling number.
    Polling people have their own opinions - even the blessed Sir John when interviewed comes across having very firm views that I suspect could at times colour his predictions. More In Common is a Pro-EU campaign group. Matt Goodwin is a Reform polemicist. Yougov seems very peculiar - almost State Pollster vibes from them. JL Partner's 'feelings' are unlikely to be Holy Writ.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,545
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    Mr Henig is the reason I joined the Conservative party... No really.
    Really, why ?

    I always found him quite pleasant although not caring for his brand of Durham City first politics. Especially as his seat was in N Durham.
    Taz lives in N. Durham - I suspect that explains it...
  • isamisam Posts: 42,838
    edited 2:06PM
    Interesting to compare the constituencies that votes at 16 will have the biggest effect with those most likely to go Islamic Indy/ Your Party

    Massive overlap, and with the Muslim demographic being much younger than the country average, it can only mean one thing. An unintended consequence no doubt, but huge ramifications

    Where will votes at 16 make the most impact?

    Constituencies with largest numbers of teenagers (in order):

    Birmingham Ladywood
    Barking
    Slough
    Bradford East
    Bradford West
    Birmingham Hodge Hill
    Enfield North
    East Ham
    Ilford South
    Birmingham Perry Barr
    Erith&Thamesmead
    Bolton South

    https://x.com/richardmarcj/status/1979834195225821445?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    The MRP prediction of Your Party seats

    Bradford West
    Blackburn
    Islington North
    Bethnal Green and Stepney
    Birmingham Ladywood
    Leicester South
    Birmingham Perry Barr
    Dewsbury and Batley
    Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley
    Slough
    Ilford South
    Ilford North
    East Ham



  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 26
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    Mr Henig is the reason I joined the Conservative party... No really.
    Really, why ?

    I always found him quite pleasant although not caring for his brand of Durham City first politics. Especially as his seat was in N Durham.
    Not for any bad reasons, he just got me interested in politics and suggested i join a party..
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,778
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    So Reform have done every other party a favour by taking up some of the burden (or poisoned chalice)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,255
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Never Boris
    Probably not May because of the stubbornness, but otherwise ok
    Rishi is difficult to know because he was handed a poison chalice
    Major and Cameron I can live with.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,965
    edited 2:14PM
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that.

    Kemi has 6 more months to see if her neoliberal on economics, culture wars on social issues starts to see the Conservatives rise in the polls. If not then I predict Tory MPs will remove her after losses in the May local elections and elect Cleverly to replace her
    Immigration is a perfect example of where your analysis falls down. This is AI so DYOR, but:
    According to a recent Ipsos poll conducted between April 11-13, 2025, two-thirds (67%) of Britons believe the total number of people entering the UK is too high, with 43% stating it is "much too high". Another poll by YouGov, conducted in May 2025, found that 70% of the public think immigration is too high, while only 3% believe it is too low.
    Why would the Tories, whose activist base, historical support base and traditional voters, are all to the right on immigration, tack the other way just as 67-70% of the voting public think the numbers coming in are too high? It would be utterly loony. Even the Lib Dems are having to come up with their own (useless) plans to stop the boats. Tacking right on immigration isn't trying to park tanks on Reform's lawn, it is an appropriate action taken to shut down that debate so that the Tories can outperform Reform on other issues like the economy.
    So what? The stats don't lie 'Looking in more detail, non-EU+ immigration has dropped by more than 350,000 since a year earlier. '
    https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/05/22/taking-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fall-in-net-migration/

    That is down to Sunak and Cleverly mainly.

    As I said Kemi has 6 months to show her leave the ECHR and scrap net zero policies etc are seeing poll gains from Reform, if not she will be dumped for Cleverly who with Stride will keep the Stamp Duty cut and outperform Reform and Labour on the economy anyway and can at least get tactical Labour and LD votes in Tory seats against Reform
    What do you mean 'so what'? It is you who is claiming that the Tories need to tack to the left on migration - a piece of utter stupidity that even Starmer isn't idiot enough to get behind.

    Attacking the scrapping of Net Zero - you really can't see a sinking ship without wanting the Tories to board it can you? Kemi has not chosen to scrap Net Zero because she wants Reform's voters - she's chosen to do it because she is vaguely serious about the economy and realises that no economy has ever grown without inexpensive energy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,965
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Never Boris
    Probably not May because of the stubbornness, but otherwise ok
    Rishi is difficult to know because he was handed a poison chalice
    Major and Cameron I can live with.
    Pet Tories.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,850
    edited 2:22PM
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Never Boris
    Probably not May because of the stubbornness, but otherwise ok
    Rishi is difficult to know because he was handed a poison chalice
    Major and Cameron I can live with.
    So still probably Major, Cameron and May and maybe even Rishi for you over Farage on a forced choice.

    That is what every Tory MP needs to tell Labour or LD voters in their constituency, either vote for me or you get an MP chosen by Farage
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,241
    edited 2:25PM

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Donny's peace didn't last long.
    .

    To the delight of many, no doubt.

    He got the hostages back. All credit to him for that.
    He did, Taz, and he deserves credit for that. It should however also be acknowledged that he used the same plan that Biden had used without success. The difference this time round was that he had more leverage with the Israelis. You might then generously allow that this was due to his relationship with them, or you might think it had more to do with the fact that so many world leaders were so balled off with the Israelis that they had little choice but to give way this time.

    Personally I think it's more the latter than the former but there's a wide range of reasonable views on that one.
    How much credit did the Biden administration get for the 35 hostages he got returned ?
    Pretty close to zero, evidently.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,850
    edited 2:26PM

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that.

    Kemi has 6 more months to see if her neoliberal on economics, culture wars on social issues starts to see the Conservatives rise in the polls. If not then I predict Tory MPs will remove her after losses in the May local elections and elect Cleverly to replace her
    Immigration is a perfect example of where your analysis falls down. This is AI so DYOR, but:
    According to a recent Ipsos poll conducted between April 11-13, 2025, two-thirds (67%) of Britons believe the total number of people entering the UK is too high, with 43% stating it is "much too high". Another poll by YouGov, conducted in May 2025, found that 70% of the public think immigration is too high, while only 3% believe it is too low.
    Why would the Tories, whose activist base, historical support base and traditional voters, are all to the right on immigration, tack the other way just as 67-70% of the voting public think the numbers coming in are too high? It would be utterly loony. Even the Lib Dems are having to come up with their own (useless) plans to stop the boats. Tacking right on immigration isn't trying to park tanks on Reform's lawn, it is an appropriate action taken to shut down that debate so that the Tories can outperform Reform on other issues like the economy.
    So what? The stats don't lie 'Looking in more detail, non-EU+ immigration has dropped by more than 350,000 since a year earlier. '
    https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/05/22/taking-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fall-in-net-migration/

    That is down to Sunak and Cleverly mainly.

    As I said Kemi has 6 months to show her leave the ECHR and scrap net zero policies etc are seeing poll gains from Reform, if not she will be dumped for Cleverly who with Stride will keep the Stamp Duty cut and outperform Reform and Labour on the economy anyway and can at least get tactical Labour and LD votes in Tory seats against Reform
    What do you mean 'so what'? It is you who is claiming that the Tories need to tack to the left on migration - a piece of utter stupidity that even Starmer isn't idiot enough to get behind.

    Attacking the scrapping of Net Zero - you really can't see a sinking ship without wanting the Tories to board it can you? Kemi has not chosen to scrap Net Zero because she wants Reform's voters - she's chosen to do it because she is vaguely serious about the economy and realises that no economy has ever grown without inexpensive energy.
    No, I never said that they just need to keep the tighter rules Sunak and Cleverly brought in.

    Kemi believes her new policy of scrapping the ECHR and scrapping net zero will win back voters from Reform, she has 6 months to prove that and show a clear rise in Tory voteshare in polls at Reform's expense!

    That is what most Tory MPs care about at the end of the day, holding their seat, not Kemi getting some award from some rightwing climate sceptic think tank for her new brilliant pro growth energy policy that still sees them without a job at the next election!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,563
    As I observed previously, the Irish presidential election seems pretty rorty.
    There’s Enoch, then Bad Enoch, now I’ve found the worst Enoch.

    https://x.com/molloy1916/status/1979606021984117130?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,255
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Never Boris
    Probably not May because of the stubbornness, but otherwise ok
    Rishi is difficult to know because he was handed a poison chalice
    Major and Cameron I can live with.
    So still probably Major, Cameron and May and maybe even Rishi for you over Farage on a forced choice.

    That is what every Tory MP needs to tell Labour or LD voters in their constituency, either vote for me or you get an MP chosen by Farage
    Oh I didn't realise that was what was at hypothetical stake (sorry didn't read prior posts). So in answer to that question not probably but definitely for all of them, yes. Even Boris may be on that choice (shudders). Whether I could bring myself to do it in the polling station I don't know. It would have to be a very cut and dry choice.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,250
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Never Boris
    Probably not May because of the stubbornness, but otherwise ok
    Rishi is difficult to know because he was handed a poison chalice
    Major and Cameron I can live with.
    So still probably Major, Cameron and May and maybe even Rishi for you over Farage on a forced choice.

    That is what every Tory MP needs to tell Labour or LD voters in their constituency, either vote for me or you get an MP chosen by Farage
    Trouble is that, from the point of view of a (ex)Tory Wet, a Conservative MP who ends up backing Farage for PM isn't that much better than a Reform MP.

    I know that, even now, he's an outlier, but can you imagine Andrew Rosindell saying "vote for me, or you will get a Reform MP and that will be awful" and anyone taking him seriously?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,965
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that.

    Kemi has 6 more months to see if her neoliberal on economics, culture wars on social issues starts to see the Conservatives rise in the polls. If not then I predict Tory MPs will remove her after losses in the May local elections and elect Cleverly to replace her
    Immigration is a perfect example of where your analysis falls down. This is AI so DYOR, but:
    According to a recent Ipsos poll conducted between April 11-13, 2025, two-thirds (67%) of Britons believe the total number of people entering the UK is too high, with 43% stating it is "much too high". Another poll by YouGov, conducted in May 2025, found that 70% of the public think immigration is too high, while only 3% believe it is too low.
    Why would the Tories, whose activist base, historical support base and traditional voters, are all to the right on immigration, tack the other way just as 67-70% of the voting public think the numbers coming in are too high? It would be utterly loony. Even the Lib Dems are having to come up with their own (useless) plans to stop the boats. Tacking right on immigration isn't trying to park tanks on Reform's lawn, it is an appropriate action taken to shut down that debate so that the Tories can outperform Reform on other issues like the economy.
    So what? The stats don't lie 'Looking in more detail, non-EU+ immigration has dropped by more than 350,000 since a year earlier. '
    https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/05/22/taking-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fall-in-net-migration/

    That is down to Sunak and Cleverly mainly.

    As I said Kemi has 6 months to show her leave the ECHR and scrap net zero policies etc are seeing poll gains from Reform, if not she will be dumped for Cleverly who with Stride will keep the Stamp Duty cut and outperform Reform and Labour on the economy anyway and can at least get tactical Labour and LD votes in Tory seats against Reform
    What do you mean 'so what'? It is you who is claiming that the Tories need to tack to the left on migration - a piece of utter stupidity that even Starmer isn't idiot enough to get behind.

    Attacking the scrapping of Net Zero - you really can't see a sinking ship without wanting the Tories to board it can you? Kemi has not chosen to scrap Net Zero because she wants Reform's voters - she's chosen to do it because she is vaguely serious about the economy and realises that no economy has ever grown without inexpensive energy.
    No, I never said that they just need to keep the tighter rules Sunak and Cleverly brought in.

    Kemi believes her new policy of scrapping the ECHR will win back voters from Reform, she has 6 months to prove that and show a clear rise in Tory voteshare in polls at Reform's expense!
    No she doesn't; you're setting up a completely false narrative. She believes that scrapping the ECHR is a necessary prerequisite for having an effective migration policy. That provides clarity and earns the party a hearing when even Labour is scrambling around trying to find ways of disapplying parts of the Convention to prevent judges blocking deportations: https://observer.co.uk/news/national/article/take-tougher-line-on-asylum-human-rights-judges-told
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    edited 2:37PM
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    Mr Henig is the reason I joined the Conservative party... No really.
    Really, why ?

    I always found him quite pleasant although not caring for his brand of Durham City first politics. Especially as his seat was in N Durham.
    Taz lives in N. Durham - I suspect that explains it...


    I’m currently enjoying the people on local Facebook groups, many of whom hated Lumiere suddenly being converts and mourning its passing
  • HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Interesting from the interview with JL Partners polling bod he said the Cameron type Tories don't exist anymore in any great numbers. They are either now solidly Lib Dem voters (and have been for nearly 10 years) and the Tories number is being held up with oldies who were never Cameron fans but remain suspicious of Farage.
    Bear in mind those Cameron Tories will be lost to the LibDems the second they join a Labour-led govt in the event of a hung parliament which seems pretty likely. A silver lining for the Tories in a pretty dark-complexioned sky.
    What you mean by Cameron Tories were actually Ken Clarke Tories, Cameron was somewhat to the right of that and fairly close to me. I don't think they have left. Some pro EU Tories were only with the party when it was a better bet for them personally than the LDs. I think the Tories who are left such as me are vibrant Tories from centre to fairly right. Those that have gone to Reform aren't particularly more right that me, certainly the ones I know, just less committed to Conservatism. And likewise those who have gone LDward. I have been lectured for not being Right enough from someone now standing as an LD candidate and for not being left enough by a now Reform voter.

    Sorry for this rambling but what I am trying to say those who shive off from the Cons are no less or no more Con than me in attitude but less affected to the party. Yes, they have gone off to the LDs in Westmorland, but it wouldn't take much for them to transmute into Reform voters. Thus a credible Reform opponent in the Local Elections might take those who went from me to LD. Of course others could as you say go for me to keep Reform out. It isn't all bad news for Con Candidates. In the past our biggest problem was the CCHQ agent, now I think a Reform worker.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    So Reform have done every other party a favour by taking up some of the burden (or poisoned chalice)
    Of course it’s a poisoned chalice. However the benefit for Reform is this gives them a ground game with councillors and activists.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626

    As I observed previously, the Irish presidential election seems pretty rorty.
    There’s Enoch, then Bad Enoch, now I’ve found the worst Enoch.

    https://x.com/molloy1916/status/1979606021984117130?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Is there an EUnoch ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,349
    Betfred will close all of its 1,300 high street betting shops if Rachel Reeves imposes a £3bn raid on the gambling industry, the company’s boss has warned.

    Joanne Whittaker, chief executive, said the closure of Betfred’s retail business would lead to the loss of 6,800 jobs.

    “The most frightening element is we’re going to lose the whole retail business,” Ms Whittaker told the Sunday Times. “We’ve got people in the Treasury who don’t understand our business.”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,241
    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,915
    Taz said:

    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    So Reform have done every other party a favour by taking up some of the burden (or poisoned chalice)
    Of course it’s a poisoned chalice. However the benefit for Reform is this gives them a ground game with councillors and activists.
    Just not a very good one
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    This cannot be allowed to continue. It’s a total disgrace. Very few things piss me off. Aston Villa winning being one, but this does. Innocent people are being killed and if they are suspects of criminality they deserve due process. Surely the Supreme can do something ?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,545
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    Mr Henig is the reason I joined the Conservative party... No really.
    Really, why ?

    I always found him quite pleasant although not caring for his brand of Durham City first politics. Especially as his seat was in N Durham.
    Taz lives in N. Durham - I suspect that explains it...


    I’m currently enjoying the people on local Facebook groups, many of whom hated Lumiere suddenly being converts and mourning its passing
    I've never got the point of Lumiere - yes it's an interest trip round Durham seeing things in a different light (excuse the pun) but the idea that it generates generates £ms of extra sales to never made sense to me..



  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    Cicero said:

    Taz said:

    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    So Reform have done every other party a favour by taking up some of the burden (or poisoned chalice)
    Of course it’s a poisoned chalice. However the benefit for Reform is this gives them a ground game with councillors and activists.
    Just not a very good one
    Like you’d know 😂 keep hoping.

    We will see in 2029 but it was a good enough ground game to win loads of councillors and several councils
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,652
    edited 2:52PM
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    This cannot be allowed to continue. It’s a total disgrace. Very few things piss me off. Aston Villa winning being one, but this does. Innocent people are being killed and if they are suspects of criminality they deserve due process. Surely the Supreme can do something ?
    The Supreme Court can do something. The problem is they won’t.

    ….but constitutions are made for men, not men for constitutions, and Cicero had long seen that the Constitution was at an end.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,250

    Betfred will close all of its 1,300 high street betting shops if Rachel Reeves imposes a £3bn raid on the gambling industry, the company’s boss has warned.

    Joanne Whittaker, chief executive, said the closure of Betfred’s retail business would lead to the loss of 6,800 jobs.

    “The most frightening element is we’re going to lose the whole retail business,” Ms Whittaker told the Sunday Times. “We’ve got people in the Treasury who don’t understand our business.”

    So that's about 400k per job. If they go through with the threat, which I suspect they won't. (And yes I know, that's a tax on a whole industry and I'm dividing by the number of jobs lost at one company. The Betting and Gaming Council claim 46 000 employees in total, so 65k per job tops. I wonder what the FT/PT split is?)

    It does look like the gaming industry have got the people who did the PR for private schools against VAT in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,241
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    This cannot be allowed to continue. It’s a total disgrace. Very few things piss me off. Aston Villa winning being one, but this does. Innocent people are being killed and if they are suspects of criminality they deserve due process. Surely the Supreme can do something ?
    Congress could, if it gave a damn.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,364
    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    The Colombian president has accused the US of committing murder
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,778
    On a separate subject, don't annoy Donald as it could cost you. The Columbian President had a beef about its citizens being blasted out of the water and complained about it, so Trump has cancelled $740mn in aid to Columbia. Apart from having a point, I'm amazed at the largesse of the US taxpayer.

    AS OF TODAY, THESE PAYMENTS, OR ANY OTHER FORM OF PAYMENT, OR SUBSIDIES, WILL NO LONGER BE MADE TO COLUMBIA,” Trump added in a post on Truth Social.


    https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5562392-donald-trump-rips-colombian-president/

    https://foreignassistance.gov/cd/colombia/
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,255
    Taz said:

    Cicero said:

    Taz said:

    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    So Reform have done every other party a favour by taking up some of the burden (or poisoned chalice)
    Of course it’s a poisoned chalice. However the benefit for Reform is this gives them a ground game with councillors and activists.
    Just not a very good one
    Like you’d know 😂 keep hoping.

    We will see in 2029 but it was a good enough ground game to win loads of councillors and several councils
    Assuming you mean 'ground game' in the LD style of campaigning Taz I suspect they did well because of their national vote share not because of their ground game. That is not to knock their ground game. They have said that they are deliberately copying the LD tactics and their leaflets (that I have seen) have been good (in terms of what is needed). Whether they can get their large membership to become activists and copy the rest and put in the type of campaign the LDs do, we shall have to wait and see. If they can they will be a real threat to both the Tories and Labour. They may still be even without that activity just based upon poll numbers.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    edited 3:01PM
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    Mr Henig is the reason I joined the Conservative party... No really.
    Really, why ?

    I always found him quite pleasant although not caring for his brand of Durham City first politics. Especially as his seat was in N Durham.
    Taz lives in N. Durham - I suspect that explains it...


    I’m currently enjoying the people on local Facebook groups, many of whom hated Lumiere suddenly being converts and mourning its passing
    I've never got the point of Lumiere - yes it's an interest trip round Durham seeing things in a different light (excuse the pun) but the idea that it generates generates £ms of extra sales to never made sense to me..



    Me neither and the people claiming it did were those at the council who supported it.

    I found it a pain in the arse. Lots of extra traffic making my journey home from work or to the Arnison a pain in the neck.

    I much prefer the Xmas market they do for a trip into Durham at that time of year.

    We go into Durham quite regularly. We visited Crush last week. But we avoid Lumiere
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,579

    Betfred will close all of its 1,300 high street betting shops if Rachel Reeves imposes a £3bn raid on the gambling industry, the company’s boss has warned.

    Joanne Whittaker, chief executive, said the closure of Betfred’s retail business would lead to the loss of 6,800 jobs.

    “The most frightening element is we’re going to lose the whole retail business,” Ms Whittaker told the Sunday Times. “We’ve got people in the Treasury who don’t understand our business.”

    More likely they want to close the shops anyway, because the betting machines aren’t as profitable as they used to be, and this gives them the excuse to blame the government. Like most bookies they over-expanded to maximise the number of machines.

    Doesn’t mean that tax rises are a sensible idea though, it’s likely to drive the industry even more offshore than it is already.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,545
    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    This cannot be allowed to continue. It’s a total disgrace. Very few things piss me off. Aston Villa winning being one, but this does. Innocent people are being killed and if they are suspects of criminality they deserve due process. Surely the Supreme can do something ?
    Congress could, if it gave a damn.
    Congress can't because it Mike Johnson is still keeping it away from Washington to avoid swearing Adelita Grijalva in...
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    This cannot be allowed to continue. It’s a total disgrace. Very few things piss me off. Aston Villa winning being one, but this does. Innocent people are being killed and if they are suspects of criminality they deserve due process. Surely the Supreme can do something ?
    The Supreme Court can do something. The problem is they won’t.

    ….but constitutions are made for men, not men for constitutions, and Cicero had long seen that the Constitution was at an end.
    That’s insane. You cannot have innocent people being subject to extra judicial killing with no accountability for it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,557

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    The Colombian president has accused the US of committing murder
    Please let him indict Trump and apply for his extradition. That would be exceedingly funny.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,778

    Betfred will close all of its 1,300 high street betting shops if Rachel Reeves imposes a £3bn raid on the gambling industry, the company’s boss has warned.

    Joanne Whittaker, chief executive, said the closure of Betfred’s retail business would lead to the loss of 6,800 jobs.

    “The most frightening element is we’re going to lose the whole retail business,” Ms Whittaker told the Sunday Times. “We’ve got people in the Treasury who don’t understand our business.”

    I suspect that there are people in the Treasury that *do* understand the business which is being replaced by barbers, American confectionery stores and Kebab shops. Or so says my friendly local community leader.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,545
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    Mr Henig is the reason I joined the Conservative party... No really.
    Really, why ?

    I always found him quite pleasant although not caring for his brand of Durham City first politics. Especially as his seat was in N Durham.
    Taz lives in N. Durham - I suspect that explains it...


    I’m currently enjoying the people on local Facebook groups, many of whom hated Lumiere suddenly being converts and mourning its passing
    I've never got the point of Lumiere - yes it's an interest trip round Durham seeing things in a different light (excuse the pun) but the idea that it generates generates £ms of extra sales to never made sense to me..



    Me neither and the people claiming it did were those at the council who supported it.

    I found it a pain in the arse. Lots of extra traffic making my journey home from work or to the Arnison a pain in the neck.

    I much prefer the Xmas market they do for a trip into Durham at that time of year.

    We go into Durham quite regularly. We visited Crush last week. But we avoid Lumiere
    We go more often then we used to - but that's because twin A is up there so going into town for a drink and a visit to the bookshops makes sense..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,557

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    This cannot be allowed to continue. It’s a total disgrace. Very few things piss me off. Aston Villa winning being one, but this does. Innocent people are being killed and if they are suspects of criminality they deserve due process. Surely the Supreme can do something ?
    The Supreme Court can do something. The problem is they won’t.

    ….but constitutions are made for men, not men for constitutions, and Cicero had long seen that the Constitution was at an end.
    Cicero is on the line, and he is very upset at your comparison.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,557
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    This cannot be allowed to continue. It’s a total disgrace. Very few things piss me off. Aston Villa winning being one, but this does. Innocent people are being killed and if they are suspects of criminality they deserve due process. Surely the Supreme can do something ?
    The Supreme Court can do something. The problem is they won’t.

    ….but constitutions are made for men, not men for constitutions, and Cicero had long seen that the Constitution was at an end.
    That’s insane. You cannot have innocent people being subject to extra judicial killing with no accountability for it.
    6th January 2020 is waving hello.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,545
    Sandpit said:

    Betfred will close all of its 1,300 high street betting shops if Rachel Reeves imposes a £3bn raid on the gambling industry, the company’s boss has warned.

    Joanne Whittaker, chief executive, said the closure of Betfred’s retail business would lead to the loss of 6,800 jobs.

    “The most frightening element is we’re going to lose the whole retail business,” Ms Whittaker told the Sunday Times. “We’ve got people in the Treasury who don’t understand our business.”

    More likely they want to close the shops anyway, because the betting machines aren’t as profitable as they used to be, and this gives them the excuse to blame the government. Like most bookies they over-expanded to maximise the number of machines.

    Doesn’t mean that tax rises are a sensible idea though, it’s likely to drive the industry even more offshore than it is already.
    That was the other argument in the article I read. I would call it carrot and stick - don't do anything and we will keep employing people otherwise the sane thing is to move abroad and you won't see a penny in tax revenue...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,850
    edited 3:11PM

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    Never Boris
    Probably not May because of the stubbornness, but otherwise ok
    Rishi is difficult to know because he was handed a poison chalice
    Major and Cameron I can live with.
    So still probably Major, Cameron and May and maybe even Rishi for you over Farage on a forced choice.

    That is what every Tory MP needs to tell Labour or LD voters in their constituency, either vote for me or you get an MP chosen by Farage
    Trouble is that, from the point of view of a (ex)Tory Wet, a Conservative MP who ends up backing Farage for PM isn't that much better than a Reform MP.

    I know that, even now, he's an outlier, but can you imagine Andrew Rosindell saying "vote for me, or you will get a Reform MP and that will be awful" and anyone taking him seriously?
    Rosindell may well have defected to Reform by the next GE anyway.

    Yougov in March found 36% of LDs, 22% of Labour voters and even 11% of Greens would tactically vote Conservative if their seat was likely a straight choice between Conservative and Reform. If Cleverly were Tory leader those figures would likely be even higher given Cleverly in his leadership bid ruled out any agreements with Reform
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51713-is-tactical-voting-more-of-a-threat-or-opportunity-for-reform-uk
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,364
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    The Colombian president has accused the US of committing murder
    Please let him indict Trump and apply for his extradition. That would be exceedingly funny.
    Trump has already withheld $740m in subsidies that pay for anti-drug activities…

    (I actually think that Colombia should kick out the ambassador and close the embassy - it’s one of the most important US locations globally and the base for most of their LatAm covert operations)
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Cicero said:

    Taz said:

    Battlebus said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    So Reform have done every other party a favour by taking up some of the burden (or poisoned chalice)
    Of course it’s a poisoned chalice. However the benefit for Reform is this gives them a ground game with councillors and activists.
    Just not a very good one
    Like you’d know 😂 keep hoping.

    We will see in 2029 but it was a good enough ground game to win loads of councillors and several councils
    Assuming you mean 'ground game' in the LD style of campaigning Taz I suspect they did well because of their national vote share not because of their ground game. That is not to knock their ground game. They have said that they are deliberately copying the LD tactics and their leaflets (that I have seen) have been good (in terms of what is needed). Whether they can get their large membership to become activists and copy the rest and put in the type of campaign the LDs do, we shall have to wait and see. If they can they will be a real threat to both the Tories and Labour. They may still be even without that activity just based upon poll numbers.
    Yes, in the LD sense, and I can only judge based on where I live. They certainly had that here as well as a large online presence too. Although I suspect without it they’d still have won the council.

    I think the councillors and they will do well in 2026 and 2027 too, gives them that opportunity and some of their supporters seem very highly motivated too.

    I only ever campaigned once, for Labour, pushing leaflets through a door. God it was dull. Perhaps now with Spotify it’s a little better
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,850

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that.

    Kemi has 6 more months to see if her neoliberal on economics, culture wars on social issues starts to see the Conservatives rise in the polls. If not then I predict Tory MPs will remove her after losses in the May local elections and elect Cleverly to replace her
    Immigration is a perfect example of where your analysis falls down. This is AI so DYOR, but:
    According to a recent Ipsos poll conducted between April 11-13, 2025, two-thirds (67%) of Britons believe the total number of people entering the UK is too high, with 43% stating it is "much too high". Another poll by YouGov, conducted in May 2025, found that 70% of the public think immigration is too high, while only 3% believe it is too low.
    Why would the Tories, whose activist base, historical support base and traditional voters, are all to the right on immigration, tack the other way just as 67-70% of the voting public think the numbers coming in are too high? It would be utterly loony. Even the Lib Dems are having to come up with their own (useless) plans to stop the boats. Tacking right on immigration isn't trying to park tanks on Reform's lawn, it is an appropriate action taken to shut down that debate so that the Tories can outperform Reform on other issues like the economy.
    So what? The stats don't lie 'Looking in more detail, non-EU+ immigration has dropped by more than 350,000 since a year earlier. '
    https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/05/22/taking-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fall-in-net-migration/

    That is down to Sunak and Cleverly mainly.

    As I said Kemi has 6 months to show her leave the ECHR and scrap net zero policies etc are seeing poll gains from Reform, if not she will be dumped for Cleverly who with Stride will keep the Stamp Duty cut and outperform Reform and Labour on the economy anyway and can at least get tactical Labour and LD votes in Tory seats against Reform
    What do you mean 'so what'? It is you who is claiming that the Tories need to tack to the left on migration - a piece of utter stupidity that even Starmer isn't idiot enough to get behind.

    Attacking the scrapping of Net Zero - you really can't see a sinking ship without wanting the Tories to board it can you? Kemi has not chosen to scrap Net Zero because she wants Reform's voters - she's chosen to do it because she is vaguely serious about the economy and realises that no economy has ever grown without inexpensive energy.
    No, I never said that they just need to keep the tighter rules Sunak and Cleverly brought in.

    Kemi believes her new policy of scrapping the ECHR will win back voters from Reform, she has 6 months to prove that and show a clear rise in Tory voteshare in polls at Reform's expense!
    No she doesn't; you're setting up a completely false narrative. She believes that scrapping the ECHR is a necessary prerequisite for having an effective migration policy. That provides clarity and earns the party a hearing when even Labour is scrambling around trying to find ways of disapplying parts of the Convention to prevent judges blocking deportations: https://observer.co.uk/news/national/article/take-tougher-line-on-asylum-human-rights-judges-told
    No she doesn't, otherwise she would have joined Jenrick in backing scrapping the ECHR in the leadership contest last year.

    She backs scrapping it now as the Tories have fallen behind Reform and she desperately wants to try and shore up Tory voteshare before the May elections that could end her leadership and lead to a VONC from Tory MPs in her
  • eekeek Posts: 31,545
    Battlebus said:

    Betfred will close all of its 1,300 high street betting shops if Rachel Reeves imposes a £3bn raid on the gambling industry, the company’s boss has warned.

    Joanne Whittaker, chief executive, said the closure of Betfred’s retail business would lead to the loss of 6,800 jobs.

    “The most frightening element is we’re going to lose the whole retail business,” Ms Whittaker told the Sunday Times. “We’ve got people in the Treasury who don’t understand our business.”

    I suspect that there are people in the Treasury that *do* understand the business which is being replaced by barbers, American confectionery stores and Kebab shops. Or so says my friendly local community leader.
    Unless you are talking about central London or the nice suburbs of around it the people at the Treasury won't care...

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,557
    On a different subject, I'm off abroad for a few days and will need to keep monitoring/working stuff including banks while I am there. Not too convinced of the wifi security where I am so was looking at a VPN. Nord seem to have a good deal on at the moment - does anyone have any thoughts on how good/safe/reliable they are?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,545
    edited 3:12PM
    ydoethur said:

    On a different subject, I'm off abroad for a few days and will need to keep monitoring/working stuff including banks while I am there. Not too convinced of the wifi security where I am so was looking at a VPN. Nord seem to have a good deal on at the moment - does anyone have any thoughts on how good/safe/reliable they are?

    It comes free with the Revolut metal account I got for cheap access to the FT (£140 a year rather than £30 a month for the FT alone) It works - and the only time I notice whether it's on or not is what version of the BBC website is served up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,142
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    This cannot be allowed to continue. It’s a total disgrace. Very few things piss me off. Aston Villa winning being one, but this does. Innocent people are being killed and if they are suspects of criminality they deserve due process. Surely the Supreme can do something ?
    Congress could, if it gave a damn.
    Congress can't because Mike Johnson is still keeping it away from Washington to avoid swearing Adelita Grijalva in...
    It is an exquisite coincidence that swearing her in will give the precise number of votes to make Republicans have to go on the record as to whether the Epstein files should be released or not. Whilst they twist on the horns of a dilemma - pissing off their voters or pissing off their President - the Government remains shut down. To spare Trump's blushes. Or indeed, to keep him in the White House. Because if those photos of him surrounded by young - really young - topless girls, laughing and pointing to the spreading stain on his crotch - if their existence becomes confirmed, even the most craven of his supporters can wave goodbye to their seats if they prop him up.

    And then we have the shit-show 2.0 of President Vance.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    Mr Henig is the reason I joined the Conservative party... No really.
    Really, why ?

    I always found him quite pleasant although not caring for his brand of Durham City first politics. Especially as his seat was in N Durham.
    Taz lives in N. Durham - I suspect that explains it...


    I’m currently enjoying the people on local Facebook groups, many of whom hated Lumiere suddenly being converts and mourning its passing
    I've never got the point of Lumiere - yes it's an interest trip round Durham seeing things in a different light (excuse the pun) but the idea that it generates generates £ms of extra sales to never made sense to me..



    Me neither and the people claiming it did were those at the council who supported it.

    I found it a pain in the arse. Lots of extra traffic making my journey home from work or to the Arnison a pain in the neck.

    I much prefer the Xmas market they do for a trip into Durham at that time of year.

    We go into Durham quite regularly. We visited Crush last week. But we avoid Lumiere
    We go more often then we used to - but that's because twin A is up there so going into town for a drink and a visit to the bookshops makes sense..
    It’s certainly much better than it was a few years ago. Some nice new restaurants and not as many drunks hanging around the bus station. Just needs the stack to get sorted.

    We like the river walks and can always get parked in Prince Bishops.

    I like going to the charity shops and the CEX shop to look for TV DVDs to rip for my collection. I also like the far Asian supermarkets for,the noodles and Soju.

    Having said that Head of Steam is quite shit these days and there is no sign of the Brew dog building ever being sorted.
  • Sandpit said:

    Betfred will close all of its 1,300 high street betting shops if Rachel Reeves imposes a £3bn raid on the gambling industry, the company’s boss has warned.

    Joanne Whittaker, chief executive, said the closure of Betfred’s retail business would lead to the loss of 6,800 jobs.

    “The most frightening element is we’re going to lose the whole retail business,” Ms Whittaker told the Sunday Times. “We’ve got people in the Treasury who don’t understand our business.”

    More likely they want to close the shops anyway, because the betting machines aren’t as profitable as they used to be, and this gives them the excuse to blame the government. Like most bookies they over-expanded to maximise the number of machines.

    Doesn’t mean that tax rises are a sensible idea though, it’s likely to drive the industry even more offshore than it is already.
    In one of the towns near me there are five bookmakers within a literal stones throw of each other. No way is that sustainable without the profits from FOBT machines, so I have no doubt Betfred really wants rid of a lot of those shops.

    And yes, tax rises will just drive more gambling online, often to unaccountable foreign entities. The government seems determined to erect a great firewall of Britain, so they can at least use it to block gambling sites that don't pay UK tax.

    Also, they need to start taxing and regulating loot boxes in video games. The sheer amount of money made from those is staggering.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,241

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration is just flat out murdering people.

    FULL REPORT: Colombian public media reports that a U.S. military strike on a boat on September 15—the second attack on a vessel by the U.S. in the Caribbean that we’re aware of—was a Colombian boat and was in Colombian territorial waters.

    At least one of the three victims extrajudicially killed in the strike was Colombian lifelong fisherman Alejandro Carranza. Alejandro’s identity is confirmed by his cousin.

    The Colombian boat was adrift and had its distress signal up due to an engine failure.

    https://x.com/camilapress/status/1979712427617816600

    This cannot be allowed to continue. It’s a total disgrace. Very few things piss me off. Aston Villa winning being one, but this does. Innocent people are being killed and if they are suspects of criminality they deserve due process. Surely the Supreme can do something ?
    The Supreme Court can do something. The problem is they won’t.

    ….but constitutions are made for men, not men for constitutions, and Cicero had long seen that the Constitution was at an end.
    If there is ever another non MAGA administration, people will go to prison for this, and stuff like it.

    Not Trump, of course, since the court have created an absurdly broad version of Presidential immunity out of thin air.
    That will take years to unpick.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,652

    Betfred will close all of its 1,300 high street betting shops if Rachel Reeves imposes a £3bn raid on the gambling industry, the company’s boss has warned.

    Joanne Whittaker, chief executive, said the closure of Betfred’s retail business would lead to the loss of 6,800 jobs.

    “The most frightening element is we’re going to lose the whole retail business,” Ms Whittaker told the Sunday Times. “We’ve got people in the Treasury who don’t understand our business.”

    So that's about 400k per job. If they go through with the threat, which I suspect they won't. (And yes I know, that's a tax on a whole industry and I'm dividing by the number of jobs lost at one company. The Betting and Gaming Council claim 46 000 employees in total, so 65k per job tops. I wonder what the FT/PT split is?)

    It does look like the gaming industry have got the people who did the PR for private schools against VAT in.
    £65k extra cost per job would shutter quite a lot of businesses.

    It’s like the raid on waste costs for building. If you charge an extra £55k per house for disposing of the soil and rubble from construction, then a bunch of houses won’t get built and prices will go up.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,626

    Betfred will close all of its 1,300 high street betting shops if Rachel Reeves imposes a £3bn raid on the gambling industry, the company’s boss has warned.

    Joanne Whittaker, chief executive, said the closure of Betfred’s retail business would lead to the loss of 6,800 jobs.

    “The most frightening element is we’re going to lose the whole retail business,” Ms Whittaker told the Sunday Times. “We’ve got people in the Treasury who don’t understand our business.”

    So that's about 400k per job. If they go through with the threat, which I suspect they won't. (And yes I know, that's a tax on a whole industry and I'm dividing by the number of jobs lost at one company. The Betting and Gaming Council claim 46 000 employees in total, so 65k per job tops. I wonder what the FT/PT split is?)

    It does look like the gaming industry have got the people who did the PR for private schools against VAT in.
    £65k extra cost per job would shutter quite a lot of businesses.

    It’s like the raid on waste costs for building. If you charge an extra £55k per house for disposing of the soil and rubble from construction, then a bunch of houses won’t get built and prices will go up.
    The rumours are that will not now go ahead.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,545
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that
    Watching you slowly work your way through the change curve from outright denial towards gradual acceptance is such a pleasure.
    I expect though that if you get a very nasty Farage led Reform government at the next general election left liberals like you will soon be crying to bring back Tory governments of old led by the likes of Major, Cameron, May and Rishi, even Boris
    There's not going to be a very nasty Farage led Reform government. To make a breakthrough they need to deliver at the Local Authority level, and that needs to be done by those on the ground. There isn't anyone with that level of competence in depth in Reform.
    I don't think they need to deliver at a local Government level, they just need to pin the blame on Westminster while claiming that they can't fix social care until they are in power.

    And all that requires is following the SNP playbook until 2029.

    Now granted the buck will stop with Nigel when they end up in power and it turns out they can't fix anything and equally can't blame the EU (because we've left it) but that's a separate issue and post 2029 issue.
    That only works so long and then people get fed up. Labour, when they ruled Durham with Simon Henig in charge, tried that for several years. People gave them the benefit of the doubt initially but after several years of non delivery didn’t.

    The same will happen to Reform at a local level.

    Although I’m sure most of us agree here that local govt funding model is broke and whoever runs a local council is fucked.
    Mr Henig is the reason I joined the Conservative party... No really.
    Really, why ?

    I always found him quite pleasant although not caring for his brand of Durham City first politics. Especially as his seat was in N Durham.
    Taz lives in N. Durham - I suspect that explains it...


    I’m currently enjoying the people on local Facebook groups, many of whom hated Lumiere suddenly being converts and mourning its passing
    I've never got the point of Lumiere - yes it's an interest trip round Durham seeing things in a different light (excuse the pun) but the idea that it generates generates £ms of extra sales to never made sense to me..



    Me neither and the people claiming it did were those at the council who supported it.

    I found it a pain in the arse. Lots of extra traffic making my journey home from work or to the Arnison a pain in the neck.

    I much prefer the Xmas market they do for a trip into Durham at that time of year.

    We go into Durham quite regularly. We visited Crush last week. But we avoid Lumiere
    We go more often then we used to - but that's because twin A is up there so going into town for a drink and a visit to the bookshops makes sense..
    It’s certainly much better than it was a few years ago. Some nice new restaurants and not as many drunks hanging around the bus station. Just needs the stack to get sorted.

    We like the river walks and can always get parked in Prince Bishops.

    I like going to the charity shops and the CEX shop to look for TV DVDs to rip for my collection. I also like the far Asian supermarkets for,the noodles and Soju.

    Having said that Head of Steam is quite shit these days and there is no sign of the Brew dog building ever being sorted.
    That Brewdog is never opening - mainly because Brewdog is currently closing pubs not opening them.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,965
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that.

    Kemi has 6 more months to see if her neoliberal on economics, culture wars on social issues starts to see the Conservatives rise in the polls. If not then I predict Tory MPs will remove her after losses in the May local elections and elect Cleverly to replace her
    Immigration is a perfect example of where your analysis falls down. This is AI so DYOR, but:
    According to a recent Ipsos poll conducted between April 11-13, 2025, two-thirds (67%) of Britons believe the total number of people entering the UK is too high, with 43% stating it is "much too high". Another poll by YouGov, conducted in May 2025, found that 70% of the public think immigration is too high, while only 3% believe it is too low.
    Why would the Tories, whose activist base, historical support base and traditional voters, are all to the right on immigration, tack the other way just as 67-70% of the voting public think the numbers coming in are too high? It would be utterly loony. Even the Lib Dems are having to come up with their own (useless) plans to stop the boats. Tacking right on immigration isn't trying to park tanks on Reform's lawn, it is an appropriate action taken to shut down that debate so that the Tories can outperform Reform on other issues like the economy.
    So what? The stats don't lie 'Looking in more detail, non-EU+ immigration has dropped by more than 350,000 since a year earlier. '
    https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/05/22/taking-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fall-in-net-migration/

    That is down to Sunak and Cleverly mainly.

    As I said Kemi has 6 months to show her leave the ECHR and scrap net zero policies etc are seeing poll gains from Reform, if not she will be dumped for Cleverly who with Stride will keep the Stamp Duty cut and outperform Reform and Labour on the economy anyway and can at least get tactical Labour and LD votes in Tory seats against Reform
    What do you mean 'so what'? It is you who is claiming that the Tories need to tack to the left on migration - a piece of utter stupidity that even Starmer isn't idiot enough to get behind.

    Attacking the scrapping of Net Zero - you really can't see a sinking ship without wanting the Tories to board it can you? Kemi has not chosen to scrap Net Zero because she wants Reform's voters - she's chosen to do it because she is vaguely serious about the economy and realises that no economy has ever grown without inexpensive energy.
    No, I never said that they just need to keep the tighter rules Sunak and Cleverly brought in.

    Kemi believes her new policy of scrapping the ECHR will win back voters from Reform, she has 6 months to prove that and show a clear rise in Tory voteshare in polls at Reform's expense!
    No she doesn't; you're setting up a completely false narrative. She believes that scrapping the ECHR is a necessary prerequisite for having an effective migration policy. That provides clarity and earns the party a hearing when even Labour is scrambling around trying to find ways of disapplying parts of the Convention to prevent judges blocking deportations: https://observer.co.uk/news/national/article/take-tougher-line-on-asylum-human-rights-judges-told
    No she doesn't, otherwise she would have joined Jenrick in backing scrapping the ECHR in the leadership contest last year.

    She backs scrapping it now as the Tories have fallen behind Reform and she desperately wants to try and shore up Tory voteshare before the May elections that could end her leadership and lead to a VONC from Tory MPs in her
    No, she took her time by having a review by a respected figure (against people like me telling her to get a shift on), and that has resulted in the policy getting through conference without public dressing downs from assorted gargoyles like Heseltine and Osborne, or the usual bitchy briefings from little staffers and hangers on (yourself excepted). I didn't like it in the run up, but now I have to acknowledge she's done a bloody good job - the Tories actually look united (again except you) and have impressed during conference season.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,579

    Sandpit said:

    Betfred will close all of its 1,300 high street betting shops if Rachel Reeves imposes a £3bn raid on the gambling industry, the company’s boss has warned.

    Joanne Whittaker, chief executive, said the closure of Betfred’s retail business would lead to the loss of 6,800 jobs.

    “The most frightening element is we’re going to lose the whole retail business,” Ms Whittaker told the Sunday Times. “We’ve got people in the Treasury who don’t understand our business.”

    More likely they want to close the shops anyway, because the betting machines aren’t as profitable as they used to be, and this gives them the excuse to blame the government. Like most bookies they over-expanded to maximise the number of machines.

    Doesn’t mean that tax rises are a sensible idea though, it’s likely to drive the industry even more offshore than it is already.
    In one of the towns near me there are five bookmakers within a literal stones throw of each other. No way is that sustainable without the profits from FOBT machines, so I have no doubt Betfred really wants rid of a lot of those shops.

    And yes, tax rises will just drive more gambling online, often to unaccountable foreign entities. The government seems determined to erect a great firewall of Britain, so they can at least use it to block gambling sites that don't pay UK tax.

    Also, they need to start taxing and regulating loot boxes in video games. The sheer amount of money made from those is staggering.
    Well government’s latest attempt to keep teenage boys away from online smut, simply trained teenage boys in how to use VPNs and proxy servers while annoying everyone else, and overseas companies started collecting loads of personal data that educators have spent decades saying not to give out.

    Unfortunately for government, the genie is out of the bottle and much of the online gambling industry is already offshore, the betting shops are the last thing that stops them moving abroad completely.

    The only way to bring it back onshore, would be banning payments from UK banks to overseas gambling companies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,850
    edited 3:33PM

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Lucy Powell. Not giving the WASPI women a handout was a ‘mistake’

    Politics is infested with useless morons with over inflated opinions,of their own abilities. This whole interview with her just reeks of it. This is just one segment.

    https://x.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1979203621939019927?s=61

    Sigh. Remember folks, before they get rid of that useless prat Starmer they really need to be sure his replacement is not even worse. Powell is worse.
    She is, and it’s not just her. Hopeless as she is. Across the political spectrum it is hard to see where there are real leaders. The Tories, no, the Lib Dem’s have a twat in a wetsuit and a load of bland backbencher types. Reform, not a chance. Farage is no leader, he’s a disruptor and where is the scrutiny of their politics. The Greens are all student politics.

    It’s most disheartening.
    Cleverly on that basis might be good. Warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, a former Home and Foreign Secretary and more serious than Davey and more heavyweight than Kemi, more centrist than Farage and Jenrick and not as populist and anti immigrant and not a hard left ranter like Polanski
    I'll give you warmer and more charismatic than Starmer, but so is a Siberian public lavatory.

    Success in politics is not pure a matter of political triangulation based on current voting patterns.

    Firstly, there is the issue of momentum - current momentum in British politics is rightward (with a smaller move to the exteme left), and the current failing Government is a centrist one. There is absolutely zero point in jumping on to that sinking bit of jetsom with Labour, the Lib Dems, and the nationalist partes already clinging on. What was the market for a neoliberal party before 1979? None.

    Secondly there's the issue of personal qualities.

    Cleverly gave Starmer a lifeline with his stupid China speech as Foreign Sec. He was a useless, lazy, supine Foreign Secretary who let his civil servants run the department, which included him negotiating the Chagos Surrender Deal, which Cameron, to give him his dues, booted into the long grass. In his own leadership campaign he was so stupid that he tried to lend votes to knock out an opponent and ended up knocking himself out.
    If you want a rightwing government which is hardline on immigration you will vote Reform anyway, even if Jenrick is Tory leader. If you want an extreme left government you will vote Green.

    If the Tories want to survive at the next general election they primarily need to hold most of their current MPs and maybe pick up a few from Labour in London and a few middle class patches of the home countries and areas like Altrincham they held until last year as a result of Labour's unpopularity.

    To do that, they largely need Labour and LD tactical votes in Conservative held seats where Reform are the likely challengers. Labour and LD voters won't tactically vote for a Jenrick led Tories, if Kemi goes ever more culture war they likely won't vote for her candidates either. They may however tactically vote for a Cleverly led Tories to beat Farage's candidate.

    Cleverly of course also set tighter visa wage requirements which has started to reduce the Boriswave, so Farage can't hit him on that.

    Kemi has 6 more months to see if her neoliberal on economics, culture wars on social issues starts to see the Conservatives rise in the polls. If not then I predict Tory MPs will remove her after losses in the May local elections and elect Cleverly to replace her
    Immigration is a perfect example of where your analysis falls down. This is AI so DYOR, but:
    According to a recent Ipsos poll conducted between April 11-13, 2025, two-thirds (67%) of Britons believe the total number of people entering the UK is too high, with 43% stating it is "much too high". Another poll by YouGov, conducted in May 2025, found that 70% of the public think immigration is too high, while only 3% believe it is too low.
    Why would the Tories, whose activist base, historical support base and traditional voters, are all to the right on immigration, tack the other way just as 67-70% of the voting public think the numbers coming in are too high? It would be utterly loony. Even the Lib Dems are having to come up with their own (useless) plans to stop the boats. Tacking right on immigration isn't trying to park tanks on Reform's lawn, it is an appropriate action taken to shut down that debate so that the Tories can outperform Reform on other issues like the economy.
    So what? The stats don't lie 'Looking in more detail, non-EU+ immigration has dropped by more than 350,000 since a year earlier. '
    https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/05/22/taking-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fall-in-net-migration/

    That is down to Sunak and Cleverly mainly.

    As I said Kemi has 6 months to show her leave the ECHR and scrap net zero policies etc are seeing poll gains from Reform, if not she will be dumped for Cleverly who with Stride will keep the Stamp Duty cut and outperform Reform and Labour on the economy anyway and can at least get tactical Labour and LD votes in Tory seats against Reform
    What do you mean 'so what'? It is you who is claiming that the Tories need to tack to the left on migration - a piece of utter stupidity that even Starmer isn't idiot enough to get behind.

    Attacking the scrapping of Net Zero - you really can't see a sinking ship without wanting the Tories to board it can you? Kemi has not chosen to scrap Net Zero because she wants Reform's voters - she's chosen to do it because she is vaguely serious about the economy and realises that no economy has ever grown without inexpensive energy.
    No, I never said that they just need to keep the tighter rules Sunak and Cleverly brought in.

    Kemi believes her new policy of scrapping the ECHR will win back voters from Reform, she has 6 months to prove that and show a clear rise in Tory voteshare in polls at Reform's expense!
    No she doesn't; you're setting up a completely false narrative. She believes that scrapping the ECHR is a necessary prerequisite for having an effective migration policy. That provides clarity and earns the party a hearing when even Labour is scrambling around trying to find ways of disapplying parts of the Convention to prevent judges blocking deportations: https://observer.co.uk/news/national/article/take-tougher-line-on-asylum-human-rights-judges-told
    No she doesn't, otherwise she would have joined Jenrick in backing scrapping the ECHR in the leadership contest last year.

    She backs scrapping it now as the Tories have fallen behind Reform and she desperately wants to try and shore up Tory voteshare before the May elections that could end her leadership and lead to a VONC from Tory MPs in her
    No, she took her time by having a review by a respected figure (against people like me telling her to get a shift on), and that has resulted in the policy getting through conference without public dressing downs from assorted gargoyles like Heseltine and Osborne, or the usual bitchy briefings from little staffers and hangers on (yourself excepted). I didn't like it in the run up, but now I have to acknowledge she's done a bloody good job - the Tories actually look united (again except you) and have impressed during conference season.
    A review she only announced, AFTER the Tories had fallen behind Reform in the polls and May local elections.

    If Kemi is at least able to consistently get the Tories back above 20% in the polls and at least beat Labour for 3rd in Scotland and Wales and maybe gain Barnet and Westminster from Labour in the May local elections she might survive, if not I am afraid she is doomed
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