Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money goes on Scotland voting for independence and YES

2»

Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/453202658921562112

    "More than 66k people have now signed petition for Miller to pay back 45k expenses or resign... story isn't going away for govt"

    LOL!

    I bet less than one percent have read any of the documents involved, and the majority are just going on what they've read in the papers, or from a social media campaign.

    Still, if it makes you happy ...
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    SeanT said:

    And still compouter bangs on, and on, and on, about "Maria Miller" even on a thread dedicated to the imminent break-up of Britain, with all that entails for Labour.

    It is this Labour complacency - or psychological denial - which has led us to this position. It will be a rich irony when Labour's cackhanded "Devolution" blows up in their face as Scottish independence.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoOG7LEyUJ0
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @AF

    Dan Hodges is writing a book on Plebgate (the most boring political story ever).

    I have seen the concluding chapter... I'll let you do the punchline.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,952
    Good evening, everyone.

    Good to be back on.

    Cameron will have no need to resign. It's a decision for Scots.

    Miss Fitalass and Mr. Fett, Miliband's a cretin. How is he going to manufacture these jobs? Public sector jobs he could conjure from thin air, but that won't be good for the deficit, and public sector jobs should exist to serve a function in themselves, not to simply swell employment by hollowing the nation's coffers.

    He could, of course, propose pro-employment changes to tax and regulation. That would be good. I am not certain these things will occur.

    Contemplating backing Button to be top 3 in the drivers' championship.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2014
    SWIFTIndex very late this month. Normally comes out around 20th of the month but their February GDP nowcasts/forecasts have been delayed to 7th April.

    Overall picture is of a small decline in growth globally, with US, OECD and UK all a shade down on last month, Germany flat and only the EU28 edging up a notch. This seems consistent with other data currently being published.

    It should be noted that the SWIFTIndex unusually undershot the UK's 2013 Q4 figure, its last nowcast predicting 0.4% growth when the first estimate (and current) ONS figure turned out as 0.7%.

    UK still outperforming all others, although it is touch and go with the US and the EU is very slowly beginning to close the gap. First Estimate of Q1 2013 due from the ONS at the end of this month.

    Lots of yellow boxes to come. Here is the first for the UK:
    ***************************United Kingdom************************

    SWIFT Index - November 2012 to February 2014
    GDP Growth estimated
    Outcomes from OECD (Expenditure Approach)
    QoQ = Quarter on Previous Quarter;
    YoY = Quarter on Same Quarter Previous Year

    United Kingdom
    | Actual | Nowcast | Forecast
    | | 3 2 1 | 3 2 1
    Period | | |
    2014 Q2 QoQ(%) | | | 0.5 0.6
    YoY(%) | | | 2.7 2.7
    | | |
    2014 Q1 QoQ(%) | | 0.6 0.7 | 0.5 0.6 0.6
    YoY(%) | | 2.9 2.9 | 2.4 2.4 2.6
    | | |
    2013 Q4 QoQ(%) | 0.7 | 0.4 0.3 0.5 | 0.5 0.5 0.4
    YoY(%) | 2.7 | 2.4 2.2 2.3 | 2.2 2.3 1.7
    | | |
    2013 Q3 QoQ(%) | 0.8 | 0.7 0.8 0.5 | 0.8 1.3 1.0
    YoY(%) | 1.5 | 1.4 1.5 1.0 | 1.5 1.4 1.1
    | | |
    2013 Q2 QoQ(%) | 0.7 | 0.7 0.1 0.1 | 0.0 -0.1 0.3
    YoY(%) | 1.3 | 1.4 1.1 1.1 | 1.6 1.6 1.6
    | | |
    2013 Q1 QoQ(%) | 0.4 | 1.0 1.0 0.6 | 0.6
    YoY(%) | 0.2 | 1.3 1.3 0.9 | 1.6
  • AndyJS said:

    "'Cool' London is dead, and the rich kids are to blame

    The cool, creative class has been priced out of London, which means the capital is becoming more bland and boring by the minute, says Alex Proud

    I have seen the future – and the future is Paris and Geneva.

    The future is a clean, dull city populated by clean, dull rich people and clean, dull old people. The future is joyless Michelin starred restaurants and shops selling £3,000 chandeliers."


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10744997/Cool-London-is-dead-and-the-rich-kids-are-to-blame.html

    Andy, now you've really upset the PBMockneys!

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26919839

    "Mention Maria Miller to Tory MPs and many turn gloomy. Some sound rather angry. "She's pretty low grade," says one. "But she is slavishly loyal to Dave”

    Delicious!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    And here is the US:
    ****************************United States************************


    SWIFT Index - November 2012 to February 2014
    GDP Growth estimated
    Outcomes from OECD (Expenditure Approach)
    QoQ = Quarter on Previous Quarter;
    YoY = Quarter on Same Quarter Previous Year

    United States
    | Actual | Nowcast | Forecast
    | | 3 2 1 | 3 2 1
    Period | | |
    2014 Q2 QoQ(%) | | | 0.5 0.6
    YoY(%) | | | 2.8 3.1
    | | |
    2014 Q1 QoQ(%) | | 0.6 0.6 | 0.3 0.3 0.4
    YoY(%) | | 2.9 3.1 | 3.1 2.1 2.2
    | | |
    2013 Q4 QoQ(%) | 0.7 | 0.7 0.3 0.5 | 0.6 0.5 0.4
    YoY(%) | 2.6 | 2.7 2.0 2.1 | 1.6 2.0 1.5
    | | |
    2013 Q3 QoQ(%) | 0.9 | 0.4 0.6 0.4 | 0.3 0.3 0.7
    YoY(%) | 2.0 | 1.9 1.6 1.2 | 0.0 0.0 1.6
    | | |
    2013 Q2 QoQ(%) | 0.6 | 0.3 0.3 0.2 | 0.1 0.2 0.5
    YoY(%) | 1.6 | -0.1 -0.1 1.7 | 1.3 1.6 2.1
    | | |
    2013 Q1 QoQ(%) | 0.3 | 0.5 0.6 0.9 | 0.4
    YoY(%) | 1.3 | 1.5 1.7 1.9 | 2.4
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    TGOHF said:

    Obama will "rue the day" ?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomgallagher/100266722/alex-salmond-is-in-the-us-schmoozing-away-but-americans-wont-forget-in-a-hurry-that-he-freed-the-lockerbie-bomber/


    "If he had not messed up in 2009, perhaps he might have landed a photo opportunity at the White House or at least a meeting with members of Congress.

    However formidable a tactician Salmond is, he is a flawed strategist. Too often his desire to score a cheap point or put powerful noses out of joint has rebounded against him"

    Scots do not want their leader's to be arse lickers like Westminster. Coming from that bitter twisted cretinous Gallagher as well , just about the level I would expect from knuckle draggers, you two would be well suited, bitter and twisted losers.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    BobaFett there is a difference between Scots Tories who accept YES is likely to win and PRO-Indy Scots Tories. I don't know any Scots Tories who want independence, just a growing number who will privately admit it is looking more likely by the day.

    There are lots of Scots Tories, particularly Young Scots Tories, members of CFS in the various university associations who are actively campaigning for Better Together but frankly they seem to be campaigning where in the past there has been a strong Tory vote and they are working for our party's future in Scotland. That perhaps explains why at each of the last dozen council and Holyrood by-elections in Scotland the Tory vote has risen in every contest, albeit in some cases from a pitifully low base.

    Post 18th September I see no need for us to be anything other than the Scottish Tory Party. We only adopted the ludicrous name Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party in the 1970s as a result of the Ulster Unionists breaking away from the Tory fold. I would expect even Ruth Davidson could survive a YES vote as she has been working hard and established a degree of respect across the political spectrum in Scotland though it is no secret I would much rather see Murdo Fraser as the party leader.

    If it is a NO vote, I still feel strongly that the Scottish Tory Party should break away from Westminster and adopt the German model whereby any Scottish Tory MPs would sit with and take the whip with English Tories.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Will the SNP disband following a YES vote? Obviously they won't immediately, but maybe after a few years.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Obama will "rue the day" ?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomgallagher/100266722/alex-salmond-is-in-the-us-schmoozing-away-but-americans-wont-forget-in-a-hurry-that-he-freed-the-lockerbie-bomber/


    "If he had not messed up in 2009, perhaps he might have landed a photo opportunity at the White House or at least a meeting with members of Congress.

    However formidable a tactician Salmond is, he is a flawed strategist. Too often his desire to score a cheap point or put powerful noses out of joint has rebounded against him"
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Are we back yet?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    TGOHF but Salmond knew it was Scots who would be electing him in 2011 not Americans and no matter how much the Megrahi decision was thrown in his face, Scots tended to agree he had done the right thing and of course he won an overall majority.

    Alex Salmond like the Irish PM has a potent weapon when it comes to the USA. All white Americans think they are a bit Scottish as well as Irish. Salmond managed to persuade Donald Trump to invest £100ms in his golf resort while telling him to fcuk off when Trump objected to the offshore windfarms.

    For all his flaws, Eck is easily the most successful political operator in Scotland with no small amount of Teflon coating.
  • Bloody hell, Peaches Geldof found dead.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    edited April 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Will the SNP disband following a YES vote? Obviously they won't immediately, but maybe after a few years.

    That will partly depend on the settlement that is negotiated and how Scotland fares in its first few years of independence. If independence is gained on the back of say a 52% win in favour, that is an awfully big constituency of potentially very pissed off folks, especially if the rUK economy motors ahead and the optimistic sales pitch for the Braveheart New World of the SNP is seen to unravel.

    If that came to pass, Scotland could be a very difficult place to govern.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Germany up next:
    *******************************Germany***************************


    SWIFT Index - November 2012 to February 2014
    GDP Growth estimated
    Outcomes from OECD (Expenditure Approach)
    QoQ = Quarter on Previous Quarter;
    YoY = Quarter on Same Quarter Previous Year

    Germany
    | Actual | Nowcast | Forecast
    | | 3 2 1 | 3 2 1
    Period | | |
    2014 Q2 QoQ(%) | | | 0.4 0.4
    YoY(%) | | | 1.4 1.4
    | | |
    2014 Q1 QoQ(%) | | 0.4 0.4 | 0.3 0.3 0.3
    YoY(%) | | 1.8 1.7 | 1.7 1.6 1.6
    | | |
    2013 Q4 QoQ(%) | 0.4 | 0.3 0.2 0.3 | 0.4 0.4 0.3
    YoY(%) | 1.4 | 1.4 1.3 1.4 | 1.5 1.7 1.3
    | | |
    2013 Q3 QoQ(%) | 0.3 | 0.4 0.5 0.3 | 0.4 0.3 0.3
    YoY(%) | 0.6 | 0.6 0.8 0.4 | 0.1 0.0 0.9
    | | |
    2013 Q2 QoQ(%) | 0.7 | 0.4 0.3 0.3 | 0.3 0.4 0.3
    YoY(%) | 0.5 | -0.1 -0.1 0.9 | 0.9 1.0 0.4
    | | |
    2013 Q1 QoQ(%) | 0.0 | 0.9 0.9 0.5 | 0.5
    YoY(%) | -0.3 | 0.8 0.8 0.4 | 0.7
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,952
    Bah. I think Vanilla just ate my post. Concise summary version:

    Yes doesn't mean Cameron has to/should resign.

    Suspect Miliband will not unveil pro-employment tax/regulation changes.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    "Triumph" for the incompetent fop.

    John Richards ‏@AWordIfIMay 1h

    #MariaMiller Hangs on with David Cameron's Full Support. But Why - Something "smells" here ? http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/maria-miller-hangs-david-camerons-full-support-why-1443751
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 4h

    David Cameron starts to retreat over Maria Miller expenses http://fw.to/OfEv1WE

    The Guardian ‏@guardian 3h

    Maria Miller row: PM 'very open' to changing how MPs police themselves http://gu.com/p/3z8c8/tw

    *chuckles*

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/tory-mps-turn-on-maria-miller-and-dave/

    Tory vultures begin to circle. Stand Maria.....STAND!!!!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Finally EU28, the nearest the OECD gets to giving us better news this month:
    ****************************Europe (EU 28)***********************


    SWIFT Index - November 2012 to February 2014
    GDP Growth estimated
    Outcomes from OECD (Expenditure Approach)
    QoQ = Quarter on Previous Quarter;
    YoY = Quarter on Same Quarter Previous Year

    Europe (EU 28)
    | Actual | Nowcast | Forecast
    | | 3 2 1 | 3 2 1
    Period | | |
    2014 Q2 QoQ(%) | | | 0.4 0.3
    YoY(%) | | | 1.5 1.1
    | | |
    2014 Q1 QoQ(%) | | 0.4 0.3 | 0.3 0.2 0.1
    YoY(%) | | 1.5 1.2 | 1.1 0.8 0.9
    | | |
    2013 Q4 QoQ(%) | 0.4 | 0.2 0.1 0.2 | 0.2 0.3 0.3
    YoY(%) | 1.0 | 0.8 0.6 0.7 | 0.7 0.9 0.8
    | | |
    2013 Q3 QoQ(%) | 0.2 | 0.3 0.3 0.3 | 0.2 0.3 0.2
    YoY(%) | 0.1 | 0.1 0.2 0.0 | -0.1 -0.3 -0.1
    | | |
    2013 Q2 QoQ(%) | 0.4 | 0.3 0.0 0.1 | 0.1 0.1 0.1
    YoY(%) | -0.1 | -0.3 -0.5 0.6 | 0.6 0.6 0.2
    | | |
    2013 Q1 QoQ(%) | -0.1 | 0.9 0.9 0.2 | 0.3
    YoY(%) | -0.8 | 0.4 0.4 0.0 | 0.1
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    AndyJS said:

    "'Cool' London is dead, and the rich kids are to blame

    The cool, creative class has been priced out of London, which means the capital is becoming more bland and boring by the minute, says Alex Proud

    I have seen the future – and the future is Paris and Geneva.

    The future is a clean, dull city populated by clean, dull rich people and clean, dull old people. The future is joyless Michelin starred restaurants and shops selling £3,000 chandeliers."


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10744997/Cool-London-is-dead-and-the-rich-kids-are-to-blame.html

    The idea that Geneva is a cheap place to live is a bit of a laugh. As for London, does anyone think it's a clean city? Go to Finsbury Park - it's hardly Frankfurt.

    SeanT is also right that there's cheap places about. Just because Angel is unaffordable doesn't mean there isn't a place to live in Hackney.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Is the thread drunk?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    George Eaton in the New Statesman - Labour has "programme of work" ready for Arnie Graf
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    AndyJS said:

    Will the SNP disband following a YES vote? Obviously they won't immediately, but maybe after a few years.

    You mean like the Indian Congress or the ANC?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    BobaFett there is a difference between Scots Tories who accept YES is likely to win and PRO-Indy Scots Tories. I don't know any Scots Tories who want independence, just a growing number who will privately admit it is looking more likely by the day.

    There are lots of Scots Tories, particularly Young Scots Tories, members of CFS in the various university associations who are actively campaigning for Better Together but frankly they seem to be campaigning where in the past there has been a strong Tory vote and they are working for our party's future in Scotland. That perhaps explains why at each of the last dozen council and Holyrood by-elections in Scotland the Tory vote has risen in every contest, albeit in some cases from a pitifully low base.

    Post 18th September I see no need for us to be anything other than the Scottish Tory Party. We only adopted the ludicrous name Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party in the 1970s as a result of the Ulster Unionists breaking away from the Tory fold. I would expect even Ruth Davidson could survive a YES vote as she has been working hard and established a degree of respect across the political spectrum in Scotland though it is no secret I would much rather see Murdo Fraser as the party leader.

    If it is a NO vote, I still feel strongly that the Scottish Tory Party should break away from Westminster and adopt the German model whereby any Scottish Tory MPs would sit with and take the whip with English Tories.

    Easterross, you should be aware of the conservatives (with a little c) group for independence. Or do you mean specifically mean SC&U party members who haven't been thrown out yet?

    Peter de Vink springs to mind, for one.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    I think the Londoners who loved London *then*, and still love it now, are just those who've got older and richer.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100266762/tories-are-not-happy-that-maria-miller-is-still-in-her-job/

    "There are lots of reasons to believe Mrs Miller will yet survive. Mr Cameron is not a good sacker; some old hands consider him squeamish when it comes to the knife. He’s also spent a lot of capital defending Mrs Miller, an investment he would not happily write off. And he’s in no mood to hand a scalp to his friends on Fleet Street.
    Still, none of that cuts much ice with Tory MPs who’ve been harangued by angry punters over the weekend. Some are pointing to Wednesday’s meeting of the 1922 Committee as the deadline for resolving this. Others are simply hoping that Mrs Miller will spare the PM a painful decision and take matters into her own hands."

    Here is to hoping she manages to hang in there for as long as possible.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    fitalass said:

    George Eaton in the New Statesman - Labour has "programme of work" ready for Arnie Graf

    I suspect that the real reason why Labour aren't making much use of Arnie Graf is rather prosaic: money.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,952
    Mr. Jessop, blimey, that's a shock. My sympathies to her family and friends.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Oh dear god. It's happening again.

    Stephen Brain ‏@Brain1Brain 3h

    Cameron visits ASDA there's a first time for everything Dave! Shelf-filling now there's a job for Maria Miller pic.twitter.com/NCQTMltiMo

    The PR photoshoot genius is back!

    LOL
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Things must be bad if Cammie has enlisted calamity Clegg to try and 'help' him.

    Patrick Strudwick ‏@PatrickStrud 22h

    Nick Clegg, 2008: "If your MP lets you down, you should have the power to fire them." Nick Clegg, 2014: "Maria Miller has explained herself"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461
    malcolmg said:

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/453202658921562112

    "More than 66k people have now signed petition for Miller to pay back 45k expenses or resign... story isn't going away for govt"

    LOL!

    I bet less than one percent have read any of the documents involved, and the majority are just going on what they've read in the papers, or from a social media campaign.

    Still, if it makes you happy ...
    I trust the independent commissioner more than her posse of fellow MP's. Guilty as sin, take her down.
    Which would be all good and well, except for the fact the commissioner changed his mind on getting new evidence:
    After the Commissioner estimated that she had claimed £45,000 too much, Miller finally found documents showing that her actual mortgage payments were higher, and so the amount overclaimed was lower. In the end the Commissioner and Kevin Barron, the Labour chair of the Standards Committee, were both happy with the £5,800 estimate.
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/04/06/in-partial-defence-of-maria-miller/

    If this article's to be believed, then it negates that whole argument. If you trust the commissioner, then she paid the correct amount.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Viktor Orbán will no doubt be distraught to learn that Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is not among his admirers:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100026981/hungary-is-becoming-the-biggest-reason-why-we-may-have-to-leave-the-eu/

    As usual with Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, good points and nonsense are all jumbled up together.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 6m
    Hashtag for Miliband's speech tomorrow is #decentralisingthecostoflivingcrisisforonenation I need a paracetamol now.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Maria......she is a present that just keeps giving. The fact that it is the right wing press going for her...DOUBLEBONUSTASTIC!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/10750360/Sketch-Tougher-sanctions-for-claimants...-except-one.html
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    This is just so tragic, she has a young family.

    Peaches Geldof has died aged 25.

    RIP.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    My reading is that this will get tighter as we get close to the September data.

    Next week I’m off to Edinburgh once again for a session with researchers at the Scottish Parliament. On my last visit, in February 2013, I was asked to make a prediction and said it would get very tight with a gap within 5%. Well that is almost there


    Yet curiously this place was dominated for a couple of weeks by witless shrieking about Osbrowne's currency "triumph" from the usual amusing suspects. They seemed so convinced it was a winner.

    Oops!

    So we should definitely pay more attention to their deep understanding of scottish public opinion from now on.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Peaches Geldof has died aged 25.

    RIP.

    Quick off the mark Wikipedia:


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaches_Geldof
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    Viktor Orbán will no doubt be distraught to learn that Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is not among his admirers:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100026981/hungary-is-becoming-the-biggest-reason-why-we-may-have-to-leave-the-eu/

    As usual with Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, good points and nonsense are all jumbled up together.

    Which bits do you think are nonsense?

    What's the EU Commission saying about this? Seeing that they call the British government nasty for wanting to hold a referendum...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461
    Peaches Geldof has died aged 25.

    RIP.
  • The Sun gossip woman on Sky News has just said that the World is in utter shock over the death of Peaches Geldof. It's definitely a tragedy for her family, but I hope it's not going to turn into a circus.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Awful news about Peaches. RIP.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    fitalass said:

    This is just so tragic, she has a young family.

    Peaches Geldof has died aged 25.

    RIP.

    Two boys under two. That's just horrible.

    RIP
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Is EdM's focus on the middle class an acknowledgment that Labour has abandoned the working class or that he knows nothing about them and so cannot relate to their concerns - a bit like a certain GB and "She's just a sort of bigoted woman that said she used to be Labour".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,952
    Mr. Jessop, perhaps CERN's created a black hole and it's affecting time?

    [One of my favourite Stargate: SG-1 episodes was the one where they were connected to a planet being consumed by a black hole, which caused relativity problems (amongst other things)].
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Bloody hell, Peaches Geldof found dead.

    That is awful, RIP
    Odd phrasing by the BBC:

    Police say they were called to an address near Wrotham, Kent following a report of concern for the welfare of a woman on Monday afternoon. The woman, aged 25, was later pronounced dead by South East Coast Ambulance Service. "At this stage, the death is being treated as unexplained and sudden," said a statement from Kent Police.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26931337

    That sounds to me that the police were there when she died. Quite possibly suicide.

    Anyway, whatever. RIP
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/maria-miller-under-review/28023

    "Things are not looking great for Maria Miller. One government source put her chances of surviving the week “no better than 60 per cent” and her chances of surviving a post-Euro elections reshuffle “virtually nil”. "

    Oh bugger! At least we may get a few weeks out of Maria.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Bloody hell, Peaches Geldof found dead.

    That is awful, RIP
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461
    fitalass said:

    This is just so tragic, she has a young family.

    Peaches Geldof has died aged 25.

    RIP.

    I like the way your reply to my post is timestamped ten minutes before my post!

    Has OGH got a new line in time machines?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461

    Mr. Jessop, blimey, that's a shock. My sympathies to her family and friends.

    Even better! Your post is a whole fifteen minutes before the one you're replying to! Now, if we can get it to before the sad news was announced, the police will have to get involved...
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 8m
    Bob Geldof- 'Peaches has died. We are beyond pain. She was the wildest, funniest, cleverest, wittiest and the most bonkers of all of us.'
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461
    Charles said:

    Bloody hell, Peaches Geldof found dead.

    That is awful, RIP
    Odd phrasing by the BBC:

    Police say they were called to an address near Wrotham, Kent following a report of concern for the welfare of a woman on Monday afternoon. The woman, aged 25, was later pronounced dead by South East Coast Ambulance Service. "At this stage, the death is being treated as unexplained and sudden," said a statement from Kent Police.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26931337

    That sounds to me that the police were there when she died. Quite possibly suicide.

    Anyway, whatever. RIP
    I think that the phrase "following a report of concern for the welfare of..." means that she'd been out of contact, and someone reported it to the police because they were worried. The police then went round and found her.

    They might have been trying to phone her, or been knocking on her door, for some time. When I reported our worries about a friend to the police last year, they listened and asked something like: "are you concerned for his safety?" When I replied yes, they said they would send someone over to his place. In the end it sadly wasn't necessary.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    malcolmg said:

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/453202658921562112

    "More than 66k people have now signed petition for Miller to pay back 45k expenses or resign... story isn't going away for govt"

    LOL!

    I bet less than one percent have read any of the documents involved, and the majority are just going on what they've read in the papers, or from a social media campaign.

    Still, if it makes you happy ...
    I trust the independent commissioner more than her posse of fellow MP's. Guilty as sin, take her down.
    Which would be all good and well, except for the fact the commissioner changed his mind on getting new evidence:
    After the Commissioner estimated that she had claimed £45,000 too much, Miller finally found documents showing that her actual mortgage payments were higher, and so the amount overclaimed was lower. In the end the Commissioner and Kevin Barron, the Labour chair of the Standards Committee, were both happy with the £5,800 estimate.
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/04/06/in-partial-defence-of-maria-miller/

    If this article's to be believed, then it negates that whole argument. If you trust the commissioner, then she paid the correct amount.

    It negates that particular argument. It doesn't negate the fact that a woman who claimed 99.9% of the total allowable mortgage expenses somehow doesn't have all her financial records. And she tried to undermine the inquiry. And her office raised her role in Leveson with a journalist investigating it.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/maria-miller-under-review/28023

    "Things are not looking great for Maria Miller. One government source put her chances of surviving the week “no better than 60 per cent” and her chances of surviving a post-Euro elections reshuffle “virtually nil”. "

    Oh bugger! At least we may get a few weeks out of Maria.

    And that is one reason why Cameron will be particularly loathe to sack / lose her now: it buggers up the next proper, pre-election reshuffle if he has to do a mini-reshuffle six weeks earlier. I wonder if she does go soon (i.e. before the main reshuffle), whether another cabinet minister will double-up for the interim.
    If Cameron had acted in a timely manner he could have just left the post vacant for a few months, I don't think the country would grind to a halt if there was no current head of the Department for Culture, media and Sport. Actually, Cameron could have taken the opportunity and have abolished the whole Department and any quangos that feed off it.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/maria-miller-under-review/28023

    "Things are not looking great for Maria Miller. One government source put her chances of surviving the week “no better than 60 per cent” and her chances of surviving a post-Euro elections reshuffle “virtually nil”. "

    Oh bugger! At least we may get a few weeks out of Maria.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461
    Socrates said:

    malcolmg said:

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/453202658921562112

    "More than 66k people have now signed petition for Miller to pay back 45k expenses or resign... story isn't going away for govt"

    LOL!

    I bet less than one percent have read any of the documents involved, and the majority are just going on what they've read in the papers, or from a social media campaign.

    Still, if it makes you happy ...
    I trust the independent commissioner more than her posse of fellow MP's. Guilty as sin, take her down.
    Which would be all good and well, except for the fact the commissioner changed his mind on getting new evidence:
    After the Commissioner estimated that she had claimed £45,000 too much, Miller finally found documents showing that her actual mortgage payments were higher, and so the amount overclaimed was lower. In the end the Commissioner and Kevin Barron, the Labour chair of the Standards Committee, were both happy with the £5,800 estimate.
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/04/06/in-partial-defence-of-maria-miller/

    If this article's to be believed, then it negates that whole argument. If you trust the commissioner, then she paid the correct amount.
    It negates that particular argument. It doesn't negate the fact that a woman who claimed 99.9% of the total allowable mortgage expenses somehow doesn't have all her financial records. And she tried to undermine the inquiry. And her office raised her role in Leveson with a journalist investigating it.

    So I'm glad we're agreed that the whole 'the committee reduced her repayment without the commissioners agreement" gig is incorrect (If that article is true). That claim never really made sense given the Labour members on that committee.

    As for the others, and playing Devil's advocate:
    1) People's financial records get in a mess. For instance, Blair was PM and his expenses records got shredded. I look forward to all MPs having to show all their historic records to prove they didn't do anything wrong. Many will be incomplete.

    2) It can be argued that she was trying (justifiably) to argue her case with the inquiry rather than undermine it - would you rather she couldn't defend herself? She did this rather over-robustly, and apologised for it. After all, she was cleared of the original allegation made about her, and this was an extension to the original claim.

    3) That transcript and recording can be taken either way. How would you feel if your father was doorstepped by one of the lovely people in the press?

    This is turning into a witch hunt. We need a House of Commons ducking stool.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited April 2014
    Remarkable Spurs team for tonight.... I think we're playing to finish 7th.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RIP Peaches Geldof.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 8m
    Bob Geldof- 'Peaches has died. We are beyond pain. She was the wildest, funniest, cleverest, wittiest and the most bonkers of all of us.'

    Losing a child, even as an adult, is the most painful thing ever. Been there quite recently.However it's happened, all my & my wife's sympathies go to the family.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Marie Miller = Jackie Smith

    Discuss.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/maria-miller-under-review/28023

    "Things are not looking great for Maria Miller. One government source put her chances of surviving the week “no better than 60 per cent” and her chances of surviving a post-Euro elections reshuffle “virtually nil”. "

    Oh bugger! At least we may get a few weeks out of Maria.

    And that is one reason why Cameron will be particularly loathe to sack / lose her now: it buggers up the next proper, pre-election reshuffle if he has to do a mini-reshuffle six weeks earlier. I wonder if she does go soon (i.e. before the main reshuffle), whether another cabinet minister will double-up for the interim.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    The Sun gossip woman on Sky News has just said that the World is in utter shock over the death of Peaches Geldof. It's definitely a tragedy for her family, but I hope it's not going to turn into a circus.

    It won't turn into a circus: she's not famous enough. It's another terrible blow for a family that's already experienced far more than its fair share of tragedy but in terms of newsworthiness, it'll be all over the front pages tomorrow (and the insides of the tabloids) but after that, the media coverage will dwindle as there won't really be much to report.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Final Twitter/Instagram post from Peaches Geldof:

    instagram.com/p/mdNpzsyTHd/
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I have Sky News on in the background and there have been enough comments for "Pseuds Corner" in Private Eye to be filled up for the next few months.

    The Sun gossip woman on Sky News has just said that the World is in utter shock over the death of Peaches Geldof. It's definitely a tragedy for her family, but I hope it's not going to turn into a circus.

  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    It seems whilst Cameron is prevaricating over Maria Miller because of his women problem,he could simply replace her with another woman.He could,for example,bring Anne Widdicombe back as her morals are beyond reproach but it doesn't really matter,any woman will do.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    It is fascinating the way the new time machine works, publishing replies to posts before those posts have been made. It would be a great source of an alibi in a Columbo episode, but just a tad frustrating for actually trying to follow a conversation or three on a politics blog.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/maria-miller-under-review/28023

    "Things are not looking great for Maria Miller. One government source put her chances of surviving the week “no better than 60 per cent” and her chances of surviving a post-Euro elections reshuffle “virtually nil”. "

    Oh bugger! At least we may get a few weeks out of Maria.

    And that is one reason why Cameron will be particularly loathe to sack / lose her now: it buggers up the next proper, pre-election reshuffle if he has to do a mini-reshuffle six weeks earlier. I wonder if she does go soon (i.e. before the main reshuffle), whether another cabinet minister will double-up for the interim.
    If Cameron had acted in a timely manner he could have just left the post vacant for a few months, I don't think the country would grind to a halt if there was no current head of the Department for Culture, media and Sport. Actually, Cameron could have taken the opportunity and have abolished the whole Department and any quangos that feed off it.
    1. Cameron didn't believe that she should be sacked.
    2. Irrespective of what you think of a government department, it would not be responsible to leave a department without a SoS. Besides, it is necessary to complete the work on press regulation by nailing a few gonads to the floor!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    In reply to RodCrosby's comment this morning on my point that Labour would still have won the 1945, 1950, 1966, Oct 1974, 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections without Scotland, that more recently Scotland had provided a bigger net advantage to Labour, that depends on the election. The much quoted '40 seats' Labour would lose without Scotland comes from 2010 when they were led by a Scot who performed better than elsewhere in the UK in his homeland. In 2010 there would have been a Tory majority of 19 in the rest of the UK, compared to the Tories' falling 28 seats short. In 2005, however, Labour's majority would only have fallen from 66 to 43 without Scotland.

    Indeed, to show how unusual 2010 was in Scotland due to the Brown factor, Labour INCREASED its voteshare in Scotland by 2.5% in 2010 while losing 7% elsewhere and lost no Scottish seats. In 2015, they will not be led by a Scot, but a north London intellectual, indeed the PM is a member of the Cameron clan and more Scottish than Miliband, so I would expect a swing to the Tories in Scotland in 2015 if it stays in the Union even if the rest of the UK swings to Labour and Labour to lose Scottish seats. Indeed, according to Yougov, Labour has lost 6% in Scotland since 2010, the SNP gained 10% and the Tories increased their Scottish vote by 2%
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/52pydxm3qk/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140404.pdf
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Sad news about Mickey Rooney and tragic news about Peaches Geldolf today, particularly as her own mother Paula Yates herself died before her time
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    Malwarebytes?

    DavidL said:

    I am sorry to report that vanilla's problems today not only screwed up my posts but also inserted some extremely annoying pop up ad on my laptop which I am still having to delete every 30 seconds or so. I am doing a norton scan at the moment but it is still not stopping it. Anyone with any ideas, I would be grateful to hear them.

    Looks like it but it is unusually tenacious.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    perdix said:

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/maria-miller-under-review/28023

    "Things are not looking great for Maria Miller. One government source put her chances of surviving the week “no better than 60 per cent” and her chances of surviving a post-Euro elections reshuffle “virtually nil”. "

    Oh bugger! At least we may get a few weeks out of Maria.

    And that is one reason why Cameron will be particularly loathe to sack / lose her now: it buggers up the next proper, pre-election reshuffle if he has to do a mini-reshuffle six weeks earlier. I wonder if she does go soon (i.e. before the main reshuffle), whether another cabinet minister will double-up for the interim.
    If Cameron had acted in a timely manner he could have just left the post vacant for a few months, I don't think the country would grind to a halt if there was no current head of the Department for Culture, media and Sport. Actually, Cameron could have taken the opportunity and have abolished the whole Department and any quangos that feed off it.
    1. Cameron didn't believe that she should be sacked.
    2. Irrespective of what you think of a government department, it would not be responsible to leave a department without a SoS. Besides, it is necessary to complete the work on press regulation by nailing a few gonads to the floor!

    1. Obviously, since he didn't sack her and it is too late now.

    2. Piffle. The DCMS could abolished tomorrow and very people would ever notice the difference. As for press regulation we seem to have managed without it for a few hundred years, I dare say we could stagger on for a bit longer without those gonads being nailed to anything.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    It seems whilst Cameron is prevaricating over Maria Miller because of his women problem,he could simply replace her with another woman.He could,for example,bring Anne Widdicombe back as her morals are beyond reproach but it doesn't really matter,any woman will do.

    Don't be silly, Anne Widdicombe would never work for a wanker and moral barbarian like Cammo.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    DavidL said:

    I am sorry to report that vanilla's problems today not only screwed up my posts but also inserted some extremely annoying pop up ad on my laptop which I am still having to delete every 30 seconds or so. I am doing a norton scan at the moment but it is still not stopping it. Anyone with any ideas, I would be grateful to hear them.

    Is it that install Javascript pop-up/redirect that's doing the rounds?

    If it is, I've found that you need to delete any suspicious files in your download folder and reinstalling your Javascript seem's to help, too.

    And yes, Malwarebytes is easily the best software for finding/removing anything even remotely suspicious on your PC.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    I am sorry to report that vanilla's problems today not only screwed up my posts but also inserted some extremely annoying pop up ad on my laptop which I am still having to delete every 30 seconds or so. I am doing a norton scan at the moment but it is still not stopping it. Anyone with any ideas, I would be grateful to hear them.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Malwarebytes?
    DavidL said:

    I am sorry to report that vanilla's problems today not only screwed up my posts but also inserted some extremely annoying pop up ad on my laptop which I am still having to delete every 30 seconds or so. I am doing a norton scan at the moment but it is still not stopping it. Anyone with any ideas, I would be grateful to hear them.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I hope the problem has gone for good.
    DavidL said:

    Sorry, I should have been clearer. That's the name of a free programme which sometimes deals with stuff like that.

    DavidL said:

    Malwarebytes?

    DavidL said:

    I am sorry to report that vanilla's problems today not only screwed up my posts but also inserted some extremely annoying pop up ad on my laptop which I am still having to delete every 30 seconds or so. I am doing a norton scan at the moment but it is still not stopping it. Anyone with any ideas, I would be grateful to hear them.

    Looks like it but it is unusually tenacious.

    My fault. Thought this was some clever name for malware. I have tried Windows defender and their malware detector and a full norton scan. No pop up in the last 2 minutes so I am hopeful something has stopped it although although the searches are coming up clean.

    It is a bit hard to believe this and the problems with vanilla are a coincidence though.

  • Remarkable Spurs team for tonight.... I think we're playing to finish 7th.

    Sunderland were 11-2 but I couldn't do it... I also half thought on a bet that we'd lose by more than 2...

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Sorry, I should have been clearer. That's the name of a free programme which sometimes deals with stuff like that.
    DavidL said:

    Malwarebytes?

    DavidL said:

    I am sorry to report that vanilla's problems today not only screwed up my posts but also inserted some extremely annoying pop up ad on my laptop which I am still having to delete every 30 seconds or so. I am doing a norton scan at the moment but it is still not stopping it. Anyone with any ideas, I would be grateful to hear them.

    Looks like it but it is unusually tenacious.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm sorry about all the Vanilla problems. I will contact support and see if I can find out what the problem is. If they are the source of any malware, etc., you can be assured we will be leaving them for (yet another) discussion provider.

    I think it usually comes from ad's but it's hard to believe Google/AdSense could have let this through, so maybe it is Vanilla?

    DavidL, I had TWO suspicious files in my download folder (assuming we're talking about the same Javascript pop/re-direct?)

    Although it seems to have rectified the problem, I think it's definitely worth you re-installing the latest version of Javascript again, because whilst removing the dodgy files helped I found the problem didn't 100% go away until I'd done a java rei-nstall.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    Sorry, I should have been clearer. That's the name of a free programme which sometimes deals with stuff like that.

    DavidL said:

    Malwarebytes?

    DavidL said:

    I am sorry to report that vanilla's problems today not only screwed up my posts but also inserted some extremely annoying pop up ad on my laptop which I am still having to delete every 30 seconds or so. I am doing a norton scan at the moment but it is still not stopping it. Anyone with any ideas, I would be grateful to hear them.

    Looks like it but it is unusually tenacious.

    My fault. Thought this was some clever name for malware. I have tried Windows defender and their malware detector and a full norton scan. No pop up in the last 2 minutes so I am hopeful something has stopped it although although the searches are coming up clean.

    It is a bit hard to believe this and the problems with vanilla are a coincidence though.

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    Thanks Robert. Great site needs a good provider.
  • Nighthawks is now open
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    I'm sorry about all the Vanilla problems. I will contact support and see if I can find out what the problem is. If they are the source of any malware, etc., you can be assured we will be leaving them for (yet another) discussion provider.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Well something has worked because it has stopped. Thank goodness for that and thanks for the helpful coments. I think removing a folder from downloads seems to have been the key but I am not sure.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Maybe I haven't been paying sufficient attention (a definite possibility---maybe there are advantages to being blithe?) ), but I haven't noticed anything amiss with Vanilla on Chrome with Sophos and Adaware (free version) on the side.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    BBC Breaking News - Peaches Geldof dies aged 25
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    BBC Breaking News - Peaches Geldof dies aged 25
This discussion has been closed.