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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money goes on Scotland voting for independence and YES reaches its highest point on Betfair

There’s been quite a rush of money going on YES for the Scottish IndyRef over the past few days so much so that the price on the Betfair exchange is quite a lot tighter.

Read the full story here

DaemonBarber

ANECDOTE ALERT...

Had a family dinner at the weekend (4 generations at the table), and the topic of conversation soon turned to the independence debate. ALL of the family at the table stated that they have turned from definite NO to highly probable YES. A common theme was that they have been persuaded to look beyond identity politics and at the actual case for independence. Salmond was a turn off for most at the table, but the consensus was that independence is not about him, indeed if YES wins the need for the SNP evaporates. They also seemed united in identifying the positive YES campaign versus the negative NO campaign were factors in moving them towards YES.

Stuart_Dickson

Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Compilation of sub-samples up to 21 March
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

Lab 41% (-1)
SNP 35% (+15)
Con 18% (+1)
LD 3% (-16)
Grn 2% (+1)
UKIP 1% (n/c)

http://www.statgeek.co.uk/polling/recent-voting-intention/

malcolmg

SeanT said:

After all this excitement - and certainty of victory - there's going to be a lot of agonised Nats if, after all, the Scots vote NO.

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

I am not aware of anybody that thinks it is a certainty. I would say that the trend to YES is a certainty, but whether they will be able to get over the line given the forces amassed against them is far from certain. With 100% of the mainstream newspapers and TV media and all 3 major UK parties lined up against them it is a hard task. But as the Barber says , people are still going towards YES as they see the lies for what they are.

DaemonBarber

SeanT said:

After all this excitement - and certainty of victory - there's going to be a lot of agonised Nats if, after all, the Scots vote NO.

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

Further anecdote update from the weekend... We were all agreed that we still think No will win, but it'll be closer than the polls indicate.

TwistedFireStopper

SeanT said:

After all this excitement - and certainty of victory - there's going to be a lot of agonised Nats if, after all, the Scots vote NO.

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

So, it's a win all round, then.

MikeK

Is Vanilla turning to syrup. Had a job logging on this afternoon.

isam

SeanT said:

After all this excitement - and certainty of victory - there's going to be a lot of agonised Nats if, after all, the Scots vote NO.

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

Posted on last thread before the site disruption. I'm going to N London to a UKIP do tonight if you fancy a pint beforehand?

TheScreamingEagles

Site notice

There's been some issues with Vanilla today, we appear to be back although there maybe some intermittent issues for a while.

You can check by visiting here to see what's happening

http://status.vanillaforums.com/

isam

MikeK said:

Is Vanilla turning to syrup. Had a job logging on this afternoon.

Are you going to the UKIP do tonight Mike?

Theuniondivvie

SeanT said:

After all this excitement - and certainty of victory - there's going to be a lot of agonised Nats if, after all, the Scots vote NO.

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

Eh? There's definitely no certainty of victory, 'no complacency' is the motto du jour (and week and month).

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

After all this excitement - and certainty of victory - there's going to be a lot of agonised Nats if, after all, the Scots vote NO.

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

Can you explain how you envisage a Yes vote means goodbye Dave?

(I'm off into a meeting, so won't be able to reply for a few hours)

Stuart_Dickson

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

After all this excitement - and certainty of victory - there's going to be a lot of agonised Nats if, after all, the Scots vote NO.

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

Eh? There's definitely no certainty of victory, 'no complacency' is the motto du jour (and week and month).

Complacency is a BT problem, not a YS problem.

Carnyx

DavidL said:

The need for a positive message indicating the reasons for staying in the Union as opposed to demonstrating for the nth time that Salmond is a plonker who doesn't know what he is talking about was discussed at length yesterday.

The real question for the no campaign is who is going to make these arguments. So far Darling has been appallingly ineffective and Lamont has been even worse. The lack of competent or coherent leadership in the Scottish Labour party ranks has been my greatest concern about this vote from the time it was announced. Nothing that has happened since has come close to addressing it.

The Labour party problem is that they want Scottish socialists to vote "no" to help prop up their chances in Westminster. And Scottish Socialists are wondering why that should be their function or their priority. Add in the completely uninspirational leadership of Ed Miliband and the Scottish Labour party are wondering if they might do better on their own, thanks. This may involve delusions of competence on their part but it is a logical point of view.

[edited for space]

I think Cameron has to make a call on this and it is very tricky. As a very English tory he is not immediately going to get a sympathetic hearing on this but I think he is going to have to fight for the Union much more visibly and vocally than he has to date. The option of delegating this to the Labour party (who have so much more to lose from an English perspective) has simply not worked. They are too incompetent and too conflicted.

Such a step undoubtedly increases the risk factors as far as Cameron personally is concerned. If Yes wins the blame will undoubtedly be heaped on his shoulders. But leaving this to Labour probably means that the vote will be lost and the UK is no more. Surely Cameron does not want that to be his legacy.

Salmond is a lot more competent than you allow - compare him with Lamont for one thing. More like to be the media portrayal and the deliberately disruptive strategies of the No campaign. Be that as it may, and I am not SNP BTW, the problem with any Tory fighting publicly for the Union is that it will encourage many Scots to plump for the other option. In fact, thinking about what you say, I'd almost suggest that for Cameron to start publicly fighting for the Union IN SCOTLAND he will have admitted defeat and is tryng to save his own personal position.

I also think you underestimate the stellar attractions for Labour of the Westminster gravy train and the patronage it offers for both givers and recipients, right down to peerages. Scottish Labour are not going to be keen on independence - their apparatchiks have spent a life working their way up the greasy pole and do not want to see the indy faction cut it just as they are within reach of the top.

DavidL

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Compilation of sub-samples up to 21 March
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

Lab 41% (-1)
SNP 35% (+15)
Con 18% (+1)
LD 3% (-16)
Grn 2% (+1)
UKIP 1% (n/c)

http://www.statgeek.co.uk/polling/recent-voting-intention/

Dear old Stuart , publishing false information yet again . Those figures are NOT a compilation of sub samples .It is the subsample from one single Yougov poll that published in the ST on 23rd of March . If you wish to publish a compilation of Scottish sub samples I can give you the figures .
For example a compilation of the last 10 Yougov polls gives for Scotland
Con 19.8% Lab 36.8% LD 8.8% SNP 27.4%

Which really makes my point. Tory+ Lib Dem = SNP. They will cancel each other out. The swing vote is Scottish Labour and it is increasingly unpredictable.

This makes Cameron's choices even more problematic. Will a tory PM really persuade Labour supporters we are better together? It is a bit counter-intuitive. But Ed really does not seem to be interested and someone needs to make the argument, and soon.

malcolmg

This is how desperate NO are......... only morons could have thought this up

Independence referendum: Labour legends drafted in by Better Together as poll gap narrows
LABOUR are calling their old guard into action in a bid to boost the fortunes of the Better Together campaign.

The party’s referendum chief Anas Sarwar has put former MP and MSP George Foulkes in charge of co-ordinating the Labour legends in the Lords.

Ex-cabinet ministers John Reid, George Robertson and Helen Liddell and former first minister Jack McConnell are among the peers poised to play a bigger role in the run-up to the independence vote on September 18.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-labour-legends-drafted-3383905

compouter2

AveryLP said:

FPT

OblitusSumMe said:

The ONS has released some interesting data today, looking beyond GDP to other measures of how well the economy is working.

From what I can tell it shows that there is a defensible narrative that Labour could tell about the economy, if they were interested in doing so.

Oblite!

Interesting to see ONS trying to repond to the current political debate but I am not convinced that laying out a handful of different metrics, all of which seem to reaching the same conclusion, has shone much light on 'cost of living' or "economic well-being"..

I can see why you are suggesting that the measures may give Labour a "defensible narrative" as there is small but consistent decline in most of the measures over their final year (varies between 2012 and 2013).

One problem for Labour is that the decline is very small and therefore subject to reversal even before the election, especially in those measures not based on up-to-date figures.

But a bigger danger would be tying an emotive and qualitative argument (do you feel better off?) to a rational and quantitative metric (whether GDP, NDP, RNNDI, RNFPA or RAHDI etc. etc.).

Maybe polled Voting Intention (pVI?) remains the best measure? compouter would like that. It would give him something to remain cross over.

Who is cross? I am quite content with the current polling results. Basil however is furious with your continued polling prediction failures.

malcolmg

Carnyx said:

On topic for once - quite a sharp story about the Scotsman trying to digest the Panelbase poll nad initially trying to claim it was dodgy ...

http://wingsoverscotland.com/fine-tuning-the-news/

They were not long in changing it after panelbase and Curtice called, lying toerags.

Carnyx

On topic for once - quite a sharp story about the Scotsman trying to digest the Panelbase poll nad initially trying to claim it was dodgy ...

http://wingsoverscotland.com/fine-tuning-the-news/

Carnyx

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

After all this excitement - and certainty of victory - there's going to be a lot of agonised Nats if, after all, the Scots vote NO.

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

Can you explain how you envisage a Yes vote means goodbye Dave?

(I'm off into a meeting, so won't be able to reply for a few hours)

He presumably reckons Mr C will have to do the decent thing for losing the worst Unionist defeat since, oh I don't know, fill it in as you wish. As Mr C's jaikit is on a shoogly peg if only 15% of Tory MPs decide he's not up to scratch, I suppose ST is perfectly correct. But they'd lose only 1 Tory MP and 2 pandas (though rather a few Tory MSPs too).

[edited to make it clear that Iam not urging anything more than that or indeed urging it at all - it is hardly his fault he inherited the situation he did, even if in hindsight he may be seen to have made faulty decisions: hindsight will be a wonderful thing ...].

isam

MikeK said:

isam said:

MikeK said:

Is Vanilla turning to syrup. Had a job logging on this afternoon.

Are you going to the UKIP do tonight Mike?

Which one is that? Whatever it is, I've made other arrangements for tonight.

Its in Kings Cross. Never mind, maybe next time

AveryLP

FPT

OblitusSumMe said:

The ONS has released some interesting data today, looking beyond GDP to other measures of how well the economy is working.

From what I can tell it shows that there is a defensible narrative that Labour could tell about the economy, if they were interested in doing so.

Oblite!

Interesting to see ONS trying to repond to the current political debate but I am not convinced that laying out a handful of different metrics, all of which seem to reaching the same conclusion, has shone much light on 'cost of living' or "economic well-being"..

I can see why you are suggesting that the measures may give Labour a "defensible narrative" as there is small but consistent decline in most of the measures over their final year (varies between 2012 and 2013).

One problem for Labour is that the decline is very small and therefore subject to reversal even before the election, especially in those measures not based on up-to-date figures.

But a bigger danger would be tying an emotive and qualitative argument (do you feel better off?) to a rational and quantitative metric (whether GDP, NDP, RNNDI, RNFPA or RAHDI etc. etc.).

Maybe polled Voting Intention (pVI?) remains the best measure? compouter would like that. It would give him something to remain cross over.

fitalass

You mean its wasn't a PB Unionist plot to try to silence the resident Nats for a few hours after Mike put up this article?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Site notice

There's been some issues with Vanilla today, we appear to be back although there maybe some intermittent issues for a while.

You can check by visiting here to see what's happening

http://status.vanillaforums.com/

Carnyx

malcolmg said:

This is how desperate NO are......... only morons could have thought this up

Independence referendum: Labour legends drafted in by Better Together as poll gap narrows
LABOUR are calling their old guard into action in a bid to boost the fortunes of the Better Together campaign.

The party’s referendum chief Anas Sarwar has put former MP and MSP George Foulkes in charge of co-ordinating the Labour legends in the Lords.

Ex-cabinet ministers John Reid, George Robertson and Helen Liddell and former first minister Jack McConnell are among the peers poised to play a bigger role in the run-up to the independence vote on September 18.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-labour-legends-drafted-3383905

It'll be like watching Walking with Dinosaurs ... except that would be unkind to the Mesozoic beasties ...

DavidL

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

I think Cameron has to make a call on this and it is very tricky. As a very English tory he is not immediately going to get a sympathetic hearing on this but I think he is going to have to fight for the Union much more visibly and vocally than he has to date. The option of delegating this to the Labour party (who have so much more to lose from an English perspective) has simply not worked. They are too incompetent and too conflicted.

Such a step undoubtedly increases the risk factors as far as Cameron personally is concerned. If Yes wins the blame will undoubtedly be heaped on his shoulders. But leaving this to Labour probably means that the vote will be lost and the UK is no more. Surely Cameron does not want that to be his legacy.

If all it takes to swing Scottish voters to support YES in the independence referendum is for the Conservative PM of the UK to ask them to stay then it proves that Scotland is a country apart and independence is best for both sides.

We may as well have this out in the open so that the people of Scotland can form a clear view.

As an Englishman who has only lived for six months five miles the other side of the line from the Wash to the Bristol Channel I'd regret Scotland choosing to leave, but I would at least like English politicians to ask Scotland to stay.

Exactly and in my opinion it is his duty as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to make the case. He made a good fist of it in the speech he gave at the Olympic site recently. He needs to bring that argument to Scotland and keep making it. It won't be easy or fun but it is necessary.

He needs to turn the negative into a positive. He can claim from a political point of view the tories are arguing against their own interest but he is willing to do so because we are better together. He must not get distracted by Salmond's nonsense. He needs to focus on the positive.

If Labour had been capable of delivering a safe no vote then Cameron sitting this out would have been the less risky choice but they can't. I always said this would be close but if there is not a radical change of approach Yes will win.

Easterross

Afternoon all and having seen a number of people suggest David Cameron would have to resign if Scotland votes YES, that is utter nonsense. If as I expect, we Scots vote YES on 18th September, like most English people, David Cameron will say the result saddens him but it was a decision for the Scots.

He will then get down to the 2015 GE campaign, confident in the knowledge it will be A Darling of the Parish of Edinburgh and SLAB who should and will take the blame for losing since it will be Scottish Labour voters who break up the UK not David Cameron and the English Tories.

He can also look forward to many of his leading opponents agonising over their next steps. Will the likes of Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander, Alistair Carmichael and Danny Alexander really want to come back and fight to get a seat at Holyrood or will they try and exert their internal party pressure to get a safe seat in England? Dave will not care whether David Mundell goes to Holyrood. After all that's where he started from.

Scotland voting YES is a win win situation for Dave and the English Tories and I suspect it will in the long term be win win for we Scots Tories too.

taffys

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

If you were Argentina or Spain, wouldn't a YES vote be the perfect time to take back the Falklands/Gibralta? A country splitting apart, with no leadership, searching for a new identity?

They wouldn't get a better opportunity.

DavidL

The need for a positive message indicating the reasons for staying in the Union as opposed to demonstrating for the nth time that Salmond is a plonker who doesn't know what he is talking about was discussed at length yesterday.

The real question for the no campaign is who is going to make these arguments. So far Darling has been appallingly ineffective and Lamont has been even worse. The lack of competent or coherent leadership in the Scottish Labour party ranks has been my greatest concern about this vote from the time it was announced. Nothing that has happened since has come close to addressing it.

The Labour party problem is that they want Scottish socialists to vote "no" to help prop up their chances in Westminster. And Scottish Socialists are wondering why that should be their function or their priority. Add in the completely uninspirational leadership of Ed Miliband and the Scottish Labour party are wondering if they might do better on their own, thanks. This may involve delusions of competence on their part but it is a logical point of view.

If you add in the fantasy that the SNP, unlike every other nationalist party in history, is somehow going to disappear in a puff of smoke after independence Scottish Labour see a scenario where they are left dominating the politics of the country for, well, a very long time.

I think Cameron has to make a call on this and it is very tricky. As a very English tory he is not immediately going to get a sympathetic hearing on this but I think he is going to have to fight for the Union much more visibly and vocally than he has to date. The option of delegating this to the Labour party (who have so much more to lose from an English perspective) has simply not worked. They are too incompetent and too conflicted.

Such a step undoubtedly increases the risk factors as far as Cameron personally is concerned. If Yes wins the blame will undoubtedly be heaped on his shoulders. But leaving this to Labour probably means that the vote will be lost and the UK is no more. Surely Cameron does not want that to be his legacy.

malcolmg

I do not see the usual wailing and gnashing of teeth on this one , wonder why.
UK government misappropriating public funds for NO campaign, as usual.

Public cash for Darling US visit an 'abuse' of diplomatic resources

The Better Together campaign has been accused of hypocrisy after it emerged that No campaign leader Alistair Darling has received diplomatic help to push the message of his political campaign abroad.

The revelations are an embarrassment for the No campaign, which previously lambasted the Scottish Government for spending public money to circulate information about the upcoming independence referendum in Scotland. According to the Sunday Herald, the British Embassy in Washington is arranging meetings for Mr Darling to discuss Scotland during a trip to the US at the invitation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/9012-public-cash-for-darling-us-visit-an-abuse-of-diplomatic-resources

fitalass

Anecdote alert - I have yet to meet someone who was a 'definite' No voter who has now switched to Yes. On the other hand, I also haven't met a 'definite' Yes voter who has switched to No either. In our family, the only recent movement has been one undecided jumping off the fence....

DaemonBarber said:

ANECDOTE ALERT...

Had a family dinner at the weekend (4 generations at the table), and the topic of conversation soon turned to the independence debate. ALL of the family at the table stated that they have turned from definite NO to highly probable YES. A common theme was that they have been persuaded to look beyond identity politics and at the actual case for independence. Salmond was a turn off for most at the table, but the consensus was that independence is not about him, indeed if YES wins the need for the SNP evaporates. They also seemed united in identifying the positive YES campaign versus the negative NO campaign were factors in moving them towards YES.

taffys

David, Cameron leaving it to Labour and in particular that well known loser Darling was criminal.

Many people have commented that the more Cameron got involved north of the border, the more votes No lost.

Perhaps he thought so too.

MarkSenior

Stuart_Dickson said:

Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Compilation of sub-samples up to 21 March
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

Lab 41% (-1)
SNP 35% (+15)
Con 18% (+1)
LD 3% (-16)
Grn 2% (+1)
UKIP 1% (n/c)

http://www.statgeek.co.uk/polling/recent-voting-intention/

Dear old Stuart , publishing false information yet again . Those figures are NOT a compilation of sub samples .It is the subsample from one single Yougov poll that published in the ST on 23rd of March . If you wish to publish a compilation of Scottish sub samples I can give you the figures .
For example a compilation of the last 10 Yougov polls gives for Scotland
Con 19.8% Lab 36.8% LD 8.8% SNP 27.4%

malcolmg

taffys said:

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

If you were Argentina or Spain, wouldn't a YES vote be the perfect time to take back the Falklands/Gibralta? A country splitting apart, with no leadership, searching for a new identity?

They wouldn't get a better opportunity.

You mean they would dare to risk the clout of the rumpUK, punching above their weight with their broad shoulders and UN Veto's.
For sure Spain will be more interested in getting Gibralter than keeping Scotland out of the EU.

malcolmg

DavidL said:

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

If you are paranoid David, perhaps the Cybernats are on to you. You could end up like that anonymous Labour MP in the Scotsman who has to go out all the time with his hood up due to cyber threats, they even managed to make it very clear that the twat was the same one who had his office cruelly vandalised with a 2"x 1" YES sticker , Mr "Out of control" himself. Neither he nor the Scotsman journalist are very bright.

PBModerator

DavidL said:

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

David, I think your comments have fallen foul of Vanilla's technical problems rather than moderation.

MikeK

isam said:

MikeK said:

Is Vanilla turning to syrup. Had a job logging on this afternoon.

Are you going to the UKIP do tonight Mike?

Which one is that? Whatever it is, I've made other arrangements for tonight.

AveryLP

compouter2 said:

AveryLP said:

compouter2 said:

BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

Even Tory Bradby weighs in:

http://www.itv.com/news/2014-04-07/david-camerons-dilemma-over-maria-miller/

"Unfortunately, that thirty-two second apology was anything but skilful.

If one of our kids had delivered it to another, we would say: "Go back and say sorry like you mean it."

And that is why David Cameron has a problem. Even if his original decision was reasonable, Maria’s churlish apology is fast become symbolic of the things many members of the public most dislike about his party."

'pouter

Why would a parent want to tell a child "to say sorry like you mean it"?

Is teaching children to dissemble and counterfeit part of the Labour curriculum?

No, however, it does seem to be party of the Tory Party MP's psyche......see Maria for example.

The solution 'pouter is for the Standards Committee, when justified, to require an MP to make a statement to the House on the original conduct investigated and the subsequent judgement of the committee.

Ordering someone to apologise is very silly. Even the FA don't resort to such tactics when chastisiing errant footballers.

Charles

taffys said:

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

If you were Argentina or Spain, wouldn't a YES vote be the perfect time to take back the Falklands/Gibralta? A country splitting apart, with no leadership, searching for a new identity?

They wouldn't get a better opportunity.

Are you really suggesting Spain will invade Gibralter?

Carnyx

DavidL said:

The need for a positive message indicating the reasons for staying in the Union as opposed to demonstrating for the nth time that Salmond is a plonker who doesn't know what he is talking about was discussed at length yesterday.

The real question for the no campaign is who is going to make these arguments. So far Darling has been appallingly ineffective and Lamont has been even worse. The lack of competent or coherent leadership in the Scottish Labour party ranks has been my greatest concern about this vote from the time it was announced. Nothing that has happened since has come close to addressing it.

The Labour party problem is that they want Scottish socialists to vote "no" to help prop up their chances in Westminster. And Scottish Socialists are wondering why that should be their function or their priority. Add in the completely uninspirational leadership of Ed Miliband and the Scottish Labour party are wondering if they might do better on their own, thanks. This may involve delusions of competence on their part but it is a logical point of view.

If you add in the fantasy that the SNP, unlike every other nationalist party in history, is somehow going to disappear in a puff of smoke after independence Scottish Labour see a scenario where they are left dominating the politics of the country for, well, a very long time.

I think Cameron has to make a call on this and it is very tricky. As a very English tory he is not immediately going to get a sympathetic hearing on this but I think he is going to have to fight for the Union much more visibly and vocally than he has to date. The option of delegating this to the Labour party (who have so much more to lose from an English perspective) has simply not worked. They are too incompetent and too conflicted.

Such a step undoubtedly increases the risk factors as far as Cameron personally is concerned. If Yes wins the blame will undoubtedly be heaped on his shoulders. But leaving this to Labour probably means that the vote will be lost and the UK is no more. Surely Cameron does not want that to be his legacy.

Commented earlier but it vanished in the Vanilla memory hole and others including you have since made my points. However, I find it hard to believe that those at middle/high levels in Scottish Labour view indy with any equanimity - their patronage system, the cursus honorum if we are going to talk about the Antonine Wall and why not indeed, is predicated on Westminster and the Lords as the final destination for many, probably most. And it will be a very unhappy apparatchik or ten who is still left on the greasy pole if the Indy vote takes a chainsaw to it.

corporeal

taffys said:

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

If you were Argentina or Spain, wouldn't a YES vote be the perfect time to take back the Falklands/Gibralta? A country splitting apart, with no leadership, searching for a new identity?

They wouldn't get a better opportunity.

No, quite the opposite. It'd be a country keen to reassert a continuing identity, likely to react strongly against any infringement, and the example of Scottish independence compared to strong referendum results in both places in favour of remaining connected to the UK would shoot down any argument Spain or Argentina cared to make.

malcolmg

DavidL said:

The need for a positive message indicating the reasons for staying in the Union as opposed to demonstrating for the nth time that Salmond is a plonker who doesn't know what he is talking about was discussed at length yesterday.

The real question for the no campaign is who is going to make these arguments. So far Darling has been appallingly ineffective and Lamont has been even worse. The lack of competent or coherent leadership in the Scottish Labour party ranks has been my greatest concern about this vote from the time it was announced. Nothing that has happened since has come close to addressing it.

The Labour party problem is that they want Scottish socialists to vote "no" to help prop up their chances in Westminster. And Scottish Socialists are wondering why that should be their function or their priority. Add in the completely uninspirational leadership of Ed Miliband and the Scottish Labour party are wondering if they might do better on their own, thanks. This may involve delusions of competence on their part but it is a logical point of view.

If you add in the fantasy that the SNP, unlike every other nationalist party in history, is somehow going to disappear in a puff of smoke after independence Scottish Labour see a scenario where they are left dominating the politics of the country for, well, a very long time.

I think Cameron has to make a call on this and it is very tricky. As a very English tory he is not immediately going to get a sympathetic hearing on this but I think he is going to have to fight for the Union much more visibly and vocally than he has to date. The option of delegating this to the Labour party (who have so much more to lose from an English perspective) has simply not worked. They are too incompetent and too conflicted.

Such a step undoubtedly increases the risk factors as far as Cameron personally is concerned. If Yes wins the blame will undoubtedly be heaped on his shoulders. But leaving this to Labour probably means that the vote will be lost and the UK is no more. Surely Cameron does not want that to be his legacy.

David, Cameron leaving it to Labour and in particular that well known loser Darling was criminal. Their blind hatred of the SNP is just pathetic, recent conference had SNP and Salmond as the most used words in every speech. They are stupid, most people are not in the SNP and are not voting YES for Salmond, labour just cannot get that. They will keep the lunatic fringe but whilst ranting and raving at Salmond the YES campaign have built a monster team out on the streets, Labour meanwhile are bringing out their Legends from the Lords , you just could not make it up. I seriously wonder at times how some of these people manage to dress themselves in the morning.

malcolmg

Easterross said:

Afternoon all and having seen a number of people suggest David Cameron would have to resign if Scotland votes YES, that is utter nonsense. If as I expect, we Scots vote YES on 18th September, like most English people, David Cameron will say the result saddens him but it was a decision for the Scots.

He will then get down to the 2015 GE campaign, confident in the knowledge it will be A Darling of the Parish of Edinburgh and SLAB who should and will take the blame for losing since it will be Scottish Labour voters who break up the UK not David Cameron and the English Tories.

He can also look forward to many of his leading opponents agonising over their next steps. Will the likes of Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander, Alistair Carmichael and Danny Alexander really want to come back and fight to get a seat at Holyrood or will they try and exert their internal party pressure to get a safe seat in England? Dave will not care whether David Mundell goes to Holyrood. After all that's where he started from.

Scotland voting YES is a win win situation for Dave and the English Tories and I suspect it will in the long term be win win for we Scots Tories too.

Easterross it will be fun watching the rats stabbing each other to get the few liferafts available.
It will be miraculous for Scotland to be shot of current Labour party.

OldKingCole

compouter2 said:

AveryLP said:

compouter2 said:

BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

Even Tory Bradby weighs in:

http://www.itv.com/news/2014-04-07/david-camerons-dilemma-over-maria-miller/

"Unfortunately, that thirty-two second apology was anything but skilful.

If one of our kids had delivered it to another, we would say: "Go back and say sorry like you mean it."

And that is why David Cameron has a problem. Even if his original decision was reasonable, Maria’s churlish apology is fast become symbolic of the things many members of the public most dislike about his party."

'pouter

Why would a parent want to tell a child "to say sorry like you mean it"?

Is teaching children to dissemble and counterfeit part of the Labour curriculum?

No, however, it does seem to be party of the Tory Party MP's psyche......see Maria for example.

Someone's obviously never had to sort out a sibling fight!

DavidL

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

David, Cameron leaving it to Labour and in particular that well known loser Darling was criminal. Their blind hatred of the SNP is just pathetic, recent conference had SNP and Salmond as the most used words in every speech. They are stupid, most people are not in the SNP and are not voting YES for Salmond, labour just cannot get that. They will keep the lunatic fringe but whilst ranting and raving at Salmond the YES campaign have built a monster team out on the streets, Labour meanwhile are bringing out their Legends from the Lords , you just could not make it up. I seriously wonder at times how some of these people manage to dress themselves in the morning.

One of the problems is that Brown was completely poisonous, killing everything he touched. And he regarded Scottish Labour as his personal fiefdom for a very long time. Nothing of any ability survived.

AveryLP

compouter2 said:

BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

Even Tory Bradby weighs in:

http://www.itv.com/news/2014-04-07/david-camerons-dilemma-over-maria-miller/

"Unfortunately, that thirty-two second apology was anything but skilful.

If one of our kids had delivered it to another, we would say: "Go back and say sorry like you mean it."

And that is why David Cameron has a problem. Even if his original decision was reasonable, Maria’s churlish apology is fast become symbolic of the things many members of the public most dislike about his party."

'pouter

Why would a parent want to tell a child "to say sorry like you mean it"?

Is teaching children to dissemble and counterfeit part of the Labour curriculum?

compouter2

BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

Even Tory Bradby weighs in:

http://www.itv.com/news/2014-04-07/david-camerons-dilemma-over-maria-miller/

"Unfortunately, that thirty-two second apology was anything but skilful.

If one of our kids had delivered it to another, we would say: "Go back and say sorry like you mean it."

And that is why David Cameron has a problem. Even if his original decision was reasonable, Maria’s churlish apology is fast become symbolic of the things many members of the public most dislike about his party."

DavidL

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

I think Cameron has to make a call on this and it is very tricky. As a very English tory he is not immediately going to get a sympathetic hearing on this but I think he is going to have to fight for the Union much more visibly and vocally than he has to date. The option of delegating this to the Labour party (who have so much more to lose from an English perspective) has simply not worked. They are too incompetent and too conflicted.

Such a step undoubtedly increases the risk factors as far as Cameron personally is concerned. If Yes wins the blame will undoubtedly be heaped on his shoulders. But leaving this to Labour probably means that the vote will be lost and the UK is no more. Surely Cameron does not want that to be his legacy.

If all it takes to swing Scottish voters to support YES in the independence referendum is for the Conservative PM of the UK to ask them to stay then it proves that Scotland is a country apart and independence is best for both sides.

We may as well have this out in the open so that the people of Scotland can form a clear view.

As an Englishman who has only lived for six months five miles the other side of the line from the Wash to the Bristol Channel I'd regret Scotland choosing to leave, but I would at least like English politicians to ask Scotland to stay.

DavidL

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

Obviously someone at Vanilla is experimenting with a post-Independence setting where posts from Scotland are excised from pb.com - I don't think it's a personal judgement on you.

As a Scot I am obliged to take every slight personally. Have you not noticed this trait?

Charles

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

After all this excitement - and certainty of victory - there's going to be a lot of agonised Nats if, after all, the Scots vote NO.

If they vote YES it's goodbye David Cameron and sayonara 40 Labour MPs, meaning the GE is thrown entirely open.

Can you explain how you envisage a Yes vote means goodbye Dave?

(I'm off into a meeting, so won't be able to reply for a few hours)

He presumably reckons Mr C will have to do the decent thing for losing the worst Unionist defeat since, oh I don't know, fill it in as you wish. As Mr C's jaikit is on a shoogly peg if only 15% of Tory MPs decide he's not up to scratch, I suppose ST is perfectly correct. But they'd lose only 1 Tory MP and 2 pandas (though rather a few Tory MSPs too).

[edited to make it clear that Iam not urging anything more than that or indeed urging it at all - it is hardly his fault he inherited the situation he did, even if in hindsight he may be seen to have made faulty decisions: hindsight will be a wonderful thing ...].

Nah, he won't go. @SeanT's bloviating again. Guys, sorry to break it to you, but most people down South will shrug and move on if you decide you want to go your separate ways.

It will be a case of 'good luck and godspeed'. We're really not that fussed whatever you decide.

MonikerDiCanio

I wonder if the Souter and lottery winners' money is being frittered away to game this market ? There were rumours that the Romney campaign tried something similar in the last Presidential race.

compouter2

BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/conservative-mps-expenses/10750084/Maria-Miller-must-answer-to-her-constituents-Attorney-General.html

malcolmg

BobaFett said:

@Easterross

Are you on

Easterross said:

Afternoon all and having seen a number of people suggest David Cameron would have to resign if Scotland votes YES, that is utter nonsense. If as I expect, we Scots vote YES on 18th September, like most English people, David Cameron will say the result saddens him but it was a decision for the Scots.

He will then get down to the 2015 GE campaign, confident in the knowledge it will be A Darling of the Parish of Edinburgh and SLAB who should and will take the blame for losing since it will be Scottish Labour voters who break up the UK not David Cameron and the English Tories.

He can also look forward to many of his leading opponents agonising over their next steps. Will the likes of Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander, Alistair Carmichael and Danny Alexander really want to come back and fight to get a seat at Holyrood or will they try and exert their internal party pressure to get a safe seat in England? Dave will not care whether David Mundell goes to Holyrood. After all that's where he started from.

Scotland voting YES is a win win situation for Dave and the English Tories and I suspect it will in the long term be win win for we Scots Tories too.

Are you on the turn too? I have denoted nationalist nuances in your posts in recent weeks.

Easterross has been suggesting a YES win for as long back as I can remember.

BobaFett

fitalass said:

Daily Mail - Five more years of misery for the middle classes: Miliband warns cost of living crisis will go on despite dramatic return to growth

Twitter
Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 4h
Hearing Ed Miliband will announce new plans to increase number of middle income jobs tomorrow...

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 4h
@bbclaurak Has he a magic wand?

Jon Boyes ‏@jonboyes 4h
@bbclaurak Has he got a Magic Jobs tree as well as a Magic Money Tree? Who knew?

Kulgan of Crydee ‏@KulganofCrydee 4h
@afneil @bbclaurak Is he going to finance it with a tax on bankers bonuses?

"Labour has seen its poll lead wither as the economic recovery has built momentum. Some surveys have put the party just one point ahead of the Tories, with more people trusting David Cameron and George Osborne to run the economy."

Would these polls be a week out of date per change?

Laughable reporting even by the Mail's dismal standards.

Charles

PBModerator said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

Obviously someone at Vanilla is experimenting with a post-Independence setting where posts from Scotland are excised from pb.com - I don't think it's a personal judgement on you.

You also might want to search up and down a bit, the comment timestamping seems to be all cocked up and things are popping up all over the place.

It is deeply disturbing reading DavidL's reply at 4.22 to Oblitus's post at 4.36...

malcolmg

DavidL said:

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

My reply to you has appeared just above your original post, way back up

AveryLP

compouter2 said:

AveryLP said:

compouter2 said:

BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

Even Tory Bradby weighs in:

http://www.itv.com/news/2014-04-07/david-camerons-dilemma-over-maria-miller/

"Unfortunately, that thirty-two second apology was anything but skilful.

If one of our kids had delivered it to another, we would say: "Go back and say sorry like you mean it."

And that is why David Cameron has a problem. Even if his original decision was reasonable, Maria’s churlish apology is fast become symbolic of the things many members of the public most dislike about his party."

'pouter

Why would a parent want to tell a child "to say sorry like you mean it"?

Is teaching children to dissemble and counterfeit part of the Labour curriculum?

No, however, it does seem to be party of the Tory Party MP's psyche......see Maria for example.

The solution 'pouter is for the Standards Committee, when justified, to require an MP to make a statement to the House on the original conduct investigated and the subsequent judgement of the committee. This would leave it up to the MP to freely apologise if they wished and considered it appropriate. If they decided not to, and the House considered the decision wrong, then the view of Members could be expressed in their response to the statement.

Ordering someone to apologise is very silly. Even the FA don't resort to such tactics when chastisiing errant footballers.

malcolmg

MonikerDiCanio said:

I wonder if the Souter and lottery winners' money is being frittered away to game this market ? There were rumours that the Romney campaign tried something similar in the last Presidential race.

Typical of you Monica, Souter has not given money for years and the lottery money is still with the SNP. Typical unionist , not that you are crap , always must be someone else that is at fault.
It is down to NO campaign being a bust flush, they have nothing good to say and they are very poor at lying. Bad Bad losers.

malcolmg

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

Obviously someone at Vanilla is experimenting with a post-Independence setting where posts from Scotland are excised from pb.com - I don't think it's a personal judgement on you.

You may be right , mine has also disappeared. When trying to post this it said a spam blocker is now in force as I had tried to post 3 times in 2 minutes

Assume Vanilla is under attack.

philiph

compouter2 said:

BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

Even Tory Bradby weighs in:

http://www.itv.com/news/2014-04-07/david-camerons-dilemma-over-maria-miller/

"Unfortunately, that thirty-two second apology was anything but skilful.

If one of our kids had delivered it to another, we would say: "Go back and say sorry like you mean it."

And that is why David Cameron has a problem. Even if his original decision was reasonable, Maria’s churlish apology is fast become symbolic of the things many members of the public most dislike about his party."

Seems to me that the Blue on Blue meme is missplaced here.

It is the blue on blue that is critical of Millar, and is therefore standing up for the integrity of those in public life against the troughers and the taxpayer.

There appears to be far to little Red on Blue, rather suggesting that the Reds are not comfortable or confidant to stand up for integrity and honesty.

compouter2

AveryLP said:

compouter2 said:

BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

Even Tory Bradby weighs in:

http://www.itv.com/news/2014-04-07/david-camerons-dilemma-over-maria-miller/

"Unfortunately, that thirty-two second apology was anything but skilful.

If one of our kids had delivered it to another, we would say: "Go back and say sorry like you mean it."

And that is why David Cameron has a problem. Even if his original decision was reasonable, Maria’s churlish apology is fast become symbolic of the things many members of the public most dislike about his party."

'pouter

Why would a parent want to tell a child "to say sorry like you mean it"?

Is teaching children to dissemble and counterfeit part of the Labour curriculum?

No, however, it does seem to be party of the Tory Party MP's psyche......see Maria for example.

Theuniondivvie

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

I think Cameron has to make a call on this and it is very tricky. As a very English tory he is not immediately going to get a sympathetic hearing on this but I think he is going to have to fight for the Union much more visibly and vocally than he has to date. The option of delegating this to the Labour party (who have so much more to lose from an English perspective) has simply not worked. They are too incompetent and too conflicted.

Such a step undoubtedly increases the risk factors as far as Cameron personally is concerned. If Yes wins the blame will undoubtedly be heaped on his shoulders. But leaving this to Labour probably means that the vote will be lost and the UK is no more. Surely Cameron does not want that to be his legacy.

If all it takes to swing Scottish voters to support YES in the independence referendum is for the Conservative PM of the UK to ask them to stay then it proves that Scotland is a country apart and independence is best for both sides.

We may as well have this out in the open so that the people of Scotland can form a clear view.

As an Englishman who has only lived for six months five miles the other side of the line from the Wash to the Bristol Channel I'd regret Scotland choosing to leave, but I would at least like English politicians to ask Scotland to stay.

As has been already suggested, expectations for Cameron in a debate with Salmond are so low DC wouldn't have much to lose. An honourable defeat would probably be a plus for Bettertogether. Of course if Cameron is thinking of a post Yes political landscape, he may not want too many of his fingerprints left on the defeat.

He should pack in the speaking to Scotland from London stuff, reaping absolutely no benefits in Scotland.

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

Obviously someone at Vanilla is experimenting with a post-Independence setting where posts from Scotland are excised from pb.com - I don't think it's a personal judgement on you.

Socrates

I see that unelected protesters in Donetsk have stormed the local government buildings by forces, kicked out the existing legislature, and then voted for independence. See this is actually a violent coup, versus what happened in Kiev where the duly elected parliament removed the President.

malcolmg

Charles said:

fitalass said:

Anecdote alert - I have yet to meet someone who was a 'definite' No voter who has now switched to Yes. On the other hand, I also haven't met a 'definite' Yes voter who has switched to No either. In our family, the only recent movement has been one undecided jumping off the fence....

DaemonBarber said:

ANECDOTE ALERT...

Had a family dinner at the weekend (4 generations at the table), and the topic of conversation soon turned to the independence debate. ALL of the family at the table stated that they have turned from definite NO to highly probable YES. A common theme was that they have been persuaded to look beyond identity politics and at the actual case for independence. Salmond was a turn off for most at the table, but the consensus was that independence is not about him, indeed if YES wins the need for the SNP evaporates. They also seemed united in identifying the positive YES campaign versus the negative NO campaign were factors in moving them towards YES.

Ye canna' leave it like tha', lassie. Which way did they jump?

If it had been NO she would have said so being a die hard no herself.

MonikerDiCanio

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

I haven't posted on here for a long time (probably since my big win on gorgeous George in that by-Election), but I'm seeing some movement in indyref voting intention amongst those I know and it prompted me to drop by.

It feels a bit like the run up to the last Holyrood election - momentum with one side, polls starting to turn. My immediate circle who were undecided are tending towards Yes, the long term Yes-ers haven't moved and the No voters have hardened their stance. The fear is strong with the No voters I know.

It is generally agreed that Darling is presiding over a shambles with the Better Together campaign. He's not got much to play with though, the Tories have virtually no serious canvassing operation in the central belt - why would they? Lib Dem activists melted like snow off a dyke post 2010 and never returned.

The SNP are old hands and have a well motivated army of door knockers. Labour should be pounding the pavements but many of their activists are either sitting it out or have gone over to Yes Scotland/Radical Independence.

Like the last Holyrood election, it will be won or lost on the GOTV/canvassers and social media, mainstream media is increasingly sidelined - the Scotsman circulation is now below <20k a day and many of those are freebies.

I'd like to see Cameron and Miliband make a big bid for this, get up here and make it a real fight, but neither appear to have the fire in their belly. I notice Foulkes has been drafted in to help out today - a sure sign that things are very bad.

YS have all the young people and the energy, it remains to be seen if they can keep it going all the way to September. I'm going to put my money on Yes whilst there is still some value to be had.</p>

Could you point us in the direction of your post where you tipped Galloway ?

Charles

fitalass said:

Anecdote alert - I have yet to meet someone who was a 'definite' No voter who has now switched to Yes. On the other hand, I also haven't met a 'definite' Yes voter who has switched to No either. In our family, the only recent movement has been one undecided jumping off the fence....

DaemonBarber said:

ANECDOTE ALERT...

Had a family dinner at the weekend (4 generations at the table), and the topic of conversation soon turned to the independence debate. ALL of the family at the table stated that they have turned from definite NO to highly probable YES. A common theme was that they have been persuaded to look beyond identity politics and at the actual case for independence. Salmond was a turn off for most at the table, but the consensus was that independence is not about him, indeed if YES wins the need for the SNP evaporates. They also seemed united in identifying the positive YES campaign versus the negative NO campaign were factors in moving them towards YES.

Ye canna' leave it like tha', lassie. Which way did they jump?

compouter2

philiph said:

compouter2 said:

BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

Even Tory Bradby weighs in:

http://www.itv.com/news/2014-04-07/david-camerons-dilemma-over-maria-miller/

"Unfortunately, that thirty-two second apology was anything but skilful.

If one of our kids had delivered it to another, we would say: "Go back and say sorry like you mean it."

And that is why David Cameron has a problem. Even if his original decision was reasonable, Maria’s churlish apology is fast become symbolic of the things many members of the public most dislike about his party."

Seems to me that the Blue on Blue meme is missplaced here.

It is the blue on blue that is critical of Millar, and is therefore standing up for the integrity of those in public life against the troughers and the taxpayer.

There appears to be far to little Red on Blue, rather suggesting that the Reds are not comfortable or confidant to stand up for integrity and honesty.

The stale waft of a Guinness fart that is Tory expense cheating that is blowing around Cameron and co just keeps getting stronger by the day. Labour should just don the nose pegs and just leave them attacking each other.

Tissue_Price

MonikerDiCanio said:

I wonder if the Souter and lottery winners' money is being frittered away to game this market ? There were rumours that the Romney campaign tried something similar in the last Presidential race.

This sort of thing is perfectly possible, and there have certainly been one or two UK markets in the past that smacked of it (a particular Lib Dem leadership contest springs to mind). However the market movements on the IndyRef seem to fairly reflect the shifts in polling thus far.

PBModerator

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

Obviously someone at Vanilla is experimenting with a post-Independence setting where posts from Scotland are excised from pb.com - I don't think it's a personal judgement on you.

You also might want to search up and down a bit, the comment timestamping seems to be all cocked up and things are popping up all over the place.

compouter2

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/conservative-mps-expenses/10749592/David-Cameron-in-retreat-over-Maria-Miller-expenses.html

Stand firm Maria, don't let them bully you.

fitalass

Daily Mail - Five more years of misery for the middle classes: Miliband warns cost of living crisis will go on despite dramatic return to growth

Twitter
Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 4h
Hearing Ed Miliband will announce new plans to increase number of middle income jobs tomorrow...

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 4h
@bbclaurak Has he a magic wand?

Jon Boyes ‏@jonboyes 4h
@bbclaurak Has he got a Magic Jobs tree as well as a Magic Money Tree? Who knew?

Kulgan of Crydee ‏@KulganofCrydee 4h
@afneil @bbclaurak Is he going to finance it with a tax on bankers bonuses?

DaemonBarber

BobaFett said:

Easterross said:

BobaFett I am a staunch unionist but also a realist and I have always reckoned that when Tony Blair created the Holyrood Parliament he was launching Scotland on a one-way trip to independence. The problems the Better Together campaign is facing are exactly the same as those the Tories faced when leading the NO NO campaign in 1998. When people are dissatisfied with the status quo, they never want to go back to something from before. They always want to move on to try something new. For that reason I have always through the YES campaign will win.

Had David Cameron and the 'English' Tory Party taken a leading role, it would have made the difference between YES being possible and a dead cert. I am looking ahead to when we need to rebuild the political grouping on the centre-right round the active parts of the Scottish Tory Party, Scotland's oldest political party.

Thank you for your reply @Easterross. Interesting stuff. Presumably there are a number of pro-Indy Scots Tories? Do you see an independent Scotland being more fertile ground for the centre-right and would you change the name of the Tory Party post a Yes win?

I've thought for a while now that the only way to get any centre-right representation in Scottish politics is via independence. The Tories are just too tainted/English. There is a massive gaping hole where a centre-right party should be. Something will fill it in an independent parliament, but it won't be the Tories.

malcolmg

MonikerDiCanio said:

malcolmg said:

Tissue_Price said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

I wonder if the Souter and lottery winners' money is being frittered away to game this market ? There were rumours that the Romney campaign tried something similar in the last Presidential race.

This sort of thing is perfectly possible, and there have certainly been one or two UK markets in the past that smacked of it (a particular Lib Dem leadership contest springs to mind). However the market movements on the IndyRef seem to fairly reflect the shifts in polling thus far.

Just a sore loser , Monica will use any lie or falsehood

I think it would be a legitimate move by Yes to revive their stalled campaign. All's fair.

LOL, I will give you a plaudit for being an optimist.

Charles

malcolmg said:

compouter2 said:

twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/453202658921562112

"More than 66k people have now signed petition for Miller to pay back 45k expenses or resign... story isn't going away for govt"

LOL!

I am one of them

Given that the Commisioner (not just the committee of MPs) accepted her argument that she owned £6K not £45K* why do you think she should pay the larger sum?

* She submitted new evidence after the original report was written

BobaFett

@Easterross

Are you on

Easterross said:

Afternoon all and having seen a number of people suggest David Cameron would have to resign if Scotland votes YES, that is utter nonsense. If as I expect, we Scots vote YES on 18th September, like most English people, David Cameron will say the result saddens him but it was a decision for the Scots.

He will then get down to the 2015 GE campaign, confident in the knowledge it will be A Darling of the Parish of Edinburgh and SLAB who should and will take the blame for losing since it will be Scottish Labour voters who break up the UK not David Cameron and the English Tories.

He can also look forward to many of his leading opponents agonising over their next steps. Will the likes of Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander, Alistair Carmichael and Danny Alexander really want to come back and fight to get a seat at Holyrood or will they try and exert their internal party pressure to get a safe seat in England? Dave will not care whether David Mundell goes to Holyrood. After all that's where he started from.

Scotland voting YES is a win win situation for Dave and the English Tories and I suspect it will in the long term be win win for we Scots Tories too.

Are you on the turn too? I have denoted nationalist nuances in your posts in recent weeks.

HurstLlama

BobaFett said:

This campaign is still very winnable for No. But we need better tunes - DevoMax, Scotland to have independence in all but arms, no Team GB etc etc. And we need to make the story much more about our shared histories as equal partners in a successful political union.

We need to end the negative scare stories and be better at fighting back. And we need to stop underestimating our opponents - ScotsNats are fearsome adversaries - passionate, united, determined. It's their life's work and we won't beat them by faffing around with technocratic geeky arguments.

We need to do this, this and we need to do that. What are you on about, Mr. Fett? For a start who is we? The English need to, and should, do nothing. Other than point out when some people are letting their campaign rhetoric run ahead of what is likely in a Yes vote settlement. This is entirely a matter for the Scots.

P.S. Gently taking the p1ss out of MalcolmG is, of course, excepted.

malcolmg

Tissue_Price said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

I wonder if the Souter and lottery winners' money is being frittered away to game this market ? There were rumours that the Romney campaign tried something similar in the last Presidential race.

This sort of thing is perfectly possible, and there have certainly been one or two UK markets in the past that smacked of it (a particular Lib Dem leadership contest springs to mind). However the market movements on the IndyRef seem to fairly reflect the shifts in polling thus far.

Just a sore loser , Monica will use any lie or falsehood

compouter2

compouter2 said:

BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/conservative-mps-expenses/10750084/Maria-Miller-must-answer-to-her-constituents-Attorney-General.html

OblitusSumMe

PBModerator said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

Obviously someone at Vanilla is experimenting with a post-Independence setting where posts from Scotland are excised from pb.com - I don't think it's a personal judgement on you.

You also might want to search up and down a bit, the comment timestamping seems to be all cocked up and things are popping up all over the place.

It all makes sense if you assume a newly independent Scotland will adopt Central European Time and Vanilla is ordering comments by local time rather than UTC.

BobaFett

fitalass said:
Daily Mail - Five more years of misery for the middle classes: Miliband warns cost of living crisis will go on despite dramatic return to growth

Twitter
Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 4h
Hearing Ed Miliband will announce new plans to increase number of middle income jobs tomorrow...

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 4h
@bbclaurak Has he a magic wand?

Jon Boyes ‏@jonboyes 4h
@bbclaurak Has he got a Magic Jobs tree as well as a Magic Money Tree? Who knew?

Kulgan of Crydee ‏@KulganofCrydee 4h
@afneil @bbclaurak Is he going to finance it with a tax on bankers bonuses?



"Labour has seen its poll lead wither as the economic recovery has built momentum. Some surveys have put the party just one point ahead of the Tories, with more people trusting David Cameron and George Osborne to run the economy."

Would these polls be a week out of date per chance?

Laughable reporting even by the Mail's dismal standards.

BobaFett

This campaign is still very winnable for No. But we need better tunes - DevoMax, Scotland to have independence in all but arms, no Team GB etc etc. And we need to make the story much more about our shared histories as equal partners in a successful political union.

We need to end the negative scare stories and be better at fighting back. And we need to stop underestimating our opponents - ScotsNats are fearsome adversaries - passionate, united, determined. It's their life's work and we won't beat them by faffing around with technocratic geeky arguments.

AlastairMeeks

AndyJS said:

"'Cool' London is dead, and the rich kids are to blame

The cool, creative class has been priced out of London, which means the capital is becoming more bland and boring by the minute, says Alex Proud

I have seen the future – and the future is Paris and Geneva.

The future is a clean, dull city populated by clean, dull rich people and clean, dull old people. The future is joyless Michelin starred restaurants and shops selling £3,000 chandeliers."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10744997/Cool-London-is-dead-and-the-rich-kids-are-to-blame.html

He seems to have a problem with London being a successful city. And he seems to have forgotten that successive areas of London were cool largely because they'd been previously been semi-abandoned, so only the creatives thought of living there.

They tell me that Dalston is now where it's at - but even that may now be out of date. Shoreditch priced out the arty types some time ago now.

Easterross

BobaFett I am a staunch unionist but also a realist and I have always reckoned that when Tony Blair created the Holyrood Parliament he was launching Scotland on a one-way trip to independence. The problems the Better Together campaign is facing are exactly the same as those the Tories faced when leading the NO NO campaign in 1998. When people are dissatisfied with the status quo, they never want to go back to something from before. They always want to move on to try something new. For that reason I have always through the YES campaign will win.

Had David Cameron and the 'English' Tory Party taken a leading role, it would have made the difference between YES being possible and a dead cert. I am looking ahead to when we need to rebuild the political grouping on the centre-right round the active parts of the Scottish Tory Party, Scotland's oldest political party.

BobaFett

Charles said:

PBModerator said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

Two of my posts have now disappeared. I know they can be a little dull but this seems excessively censorious.

Obviously someone at Vanilla is experimenting with a post-Independence setting where posts from Scotland are excised from pb.com - I don't think it's a personal judgement on you.

You also might want to search up and down a bit, the comment timestamping seems to be all cocked up and things are popping up all over the place.

It is deeply disturbing reading DavidL's reply at 4.22 to Oblitus's post at 4.36...

Vanilla has ejected us through a hole in the time-space continuum. Scotland is already independent. It is winter, and snowing, and Maria Miller has be installed as caretaker PM after David Cameron eloped with Luciana Berger up the Firth of Forth.

DaemonBarber

test

TGOHF

Perhaps it's time for Ed to focus on the "cost of ignoring the Indyref crisis" that is about to engulf his party and keep them out of power for 20 years ?

MonikerDiCanio

malcolmg said:

Tissue_Price said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

I wonder if the Souter and lottery winners' money is being frittered away to game this market ? There were rumours that the Romney campaign tried something similar in the last Presidential race.

This sort of thing is perfectly possible, and there have certainly been one or two UK markets in the past that smacked of it (a particular Lib Dem leadership contest springs to mind). However the market movements on the IndyRef seem to fairly reflect the shifts in polling thus far.

Just a sore loser , Monica will use any lie or falsehood

I think it would be a legitimate move by Yes to revive their stalled campaign. All's fair.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

I haven't posted on here for a long time (probably since my big win on gorgeous George in that by-Election), but I'm seeing some movement in indyref voting intention amongst those I know and it prompted me to drop by.

It feels a bit like the run up to the last Holyrood election - momentum with one side, polls starting to turn. My immediate circle who were undecided are tending towards Yes, the long term Yes-ers haven't moved and the No voters have hardened their stance. The fear is strong with the No voters I know.

It is generally agreed that Darling is presiding over a shambles with the Better Together campaign. He's not got much to play with though, the Tories have virtually no serious canvassing operation in the central belt - why would they? Lib Dem activists melted like snow off a dyke post 2010 and never returned.

The SNP are old hands and have a well motivated army of door knockers. Labour should be pounding the pavements but many of their activists are either sitting it out or have gone over to Yes Scotland/Radical Independence.

Like the last Holyrood election, it will be won or lost on the GOTV/canvassers and social media, mainstream media is increasingly sidelined - the Scotsman circulation is now below <20k a day and many of those are freebies.

I'd like to see Cameron and Miliband make a big bid for this, get up here and make it a real fight, but neither appear to have the fire in their belly. I notice Foulkes has been drafted in to help out today - a sure sign that things are very bad.

YS have all the young people and the energy, it remains to be seen if they can keep it going all the way to September. I'm going to put my money on Yes whilst there is still some value to be had.

BobaFett

Easterross said:

BobaFett I am a staunch unionist but also a realist and I have always reckoned that when Tony Blair created the Holyrood Parliament he was launching Scotland on a one-way trip to independence. The problems the Better Together campaign is facing are exactly the same as those the Tories faced when leading the NO NO campaign in 1998. When people are dissatisfied with the status quo, they never want to go back to something from before. They always want to move on to try something new. For that reason I have always through the YES campaign will win.

Had David Cameron and the 'English' Tory Party taken a leading role, it would have made the difference between YES being possible and a dead cert. I am looking ahead to when we need to rebuild the political grouping on the centre-right round the active parts of the Scottish Tory Party, Scotland's oldest political party.

Thank you for your reply @Easterross. Interesting stuff. Presumably there are a number of pro-Indy Scots Tories? Do you see an independent Scotland being more fertile ground for the centre-right and would you change the name of the Tory Party post a Yes win?

AveryLP

And now the regions, first OECD Total (excludes China but the nearest the OECD gets to a global figure):

*****************************OECD Total**************************


SWIFT Index - November 2012 to February 2014                    
GDP Growth estimated                                            
Outcomes from OECD (Expenditure Approach)                       
QoQ = Quarter on Previous Quarter;                              
YoY = Quarter on Same Quarter Previous Year                     

OECD                                                            
                 | Actual |      Nowcast     |    Forecast      
                 |        |   3     2     1  |   3     2     1  
Period           |        |                  |                  
2014 Q2   QoQ(%) |        |                  |        0.5   0.5 
          YoY(%) |        |                  |        2.1   2.2 
                 |        |                  |                  
2014 Q1   QoQ(%) |        |        0.5   0.5 |  0.4   0.5   0.4 
          YoY(%) |        |        2.2   2.3 |  2.2   1.9   2.2 
                 |        |                  |                  
2013 Q4   QoQ(%) |   0.5  |  0.6   0.4   0.3 |  0.3   0.5   0.4 
          YoY(%) |   2.0  |  2.1   1.7   1.4 |  1.5   2.0   1.6 
                 |        |                  |                  
2013 Q3   QoQ(%) |   0.9  |  0.3   0.6   0.4 |  0.2   0.2   0.3 
          YoY(%) |   1.4  |  1.1   1.6   1.1 |  0.8   1.0   0.9 
                 |        |                  |                  
2013 Q2   QoQ(%) |   0.6  |  0.3   0.4   0.0 |  0.2   0.4   0.3 
          YoY(%) |   1.0  |  0.9   1.0   1.0 |  1.1   1.1   1.7 
                 |        |                  |                  
2013 Q1   QoQ(%) |   0.3  |  0.8   0.7   0.8 |  0.5             
          YoY(%) |   0.6  |  1.1   0.9   1.6 |  1.3             

AlastairMeeks

I see that Plebgate has claimed further casualties.

malcolmg

compouter2 said:

twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/453202658921562112

"More than 66k people have now signed petition for Miller to pay back 45k expenses or resign... story isn't going away for govt"

LOL!

I am one of them

TGOHF

While I think the wobbly dunce should resign I wish lefties would get as upset about every £45k of wasted government spending.

compouter2

twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/453202658921562112

"More than 66k people have now signed petition for Miller to pay back 45k expenses or resign... story isn't going away for govt"

LOL!

Mick_Pork

TwistedFireStopper said:

AndyJS said:

"'Cool' London is dead, and the rich kids are to blame

The cool, creative class has been priced out of London, which means the capital is becoming more bland and boring by the minute, says Alex Proud

I have seen the future – and the future is Paris and Geneva.

The future is a clean, dull city populated by clean, dull rich people and clean, dull old people. The future is joyless Michelin starred restaurants and shops selling £3,000 chandeliers."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10744997/Cool-London-is-dead-and-the-rich-kids-are-to-blame.html

Andy, now you've really upset the PBMockneys!

Gertcha! Mashed potatoes.

Charles

AndyJS said:

"'Cool' London is dead, and the rich kids are to blame

The cool, creative class has been priced out of London, which means the capital is becoming more bland and boring by the minute, says Alex Proud

I have seen the future – and the future is Paris and Geneva.

The future is a clean, dull city populated by clean, dull rich people and clean, dull old people. The future is joyless Michelin starred restaurants and shops selling £3,000 chandeliers."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10744997/Cool-London-is-dead-and-the-rich-kids-are-to-blame.html

Quick precis: F***. I can't afford a house in London but I feel entitled to one, so I am going to scream about how life is unfair.

malcolmg

JosiasJessop said:

compouter2 said:

twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/453202658921562112

"More than 66k people have now signed petition for Miller to pay back 45k expenses or resign... story isn't going away for govt"

LOL!

I bet less than one percent have read any of the documents involved, and the majority are just going on what they've read in the papers, or from a social media campaign.

Still, if it makes you happy ...

I trust the independent commissioner more than her posse of fellow MP's. Guilty as sin, take her down.

TGOHF

AndyJS said:

Will the SNP disband following a YES vote? Obviously they won't immediately, but maybe after a few years.

And give up taxpayer funded trews and jollies ? Not a chance.

TwistedFireStopper

BobaFett said:

@AF

Dan Hodges is writing a book on Plebgate (the most boring political story ever).

I have seen the concluding chapter... I'll let you do the punchline.

If you think that's the most boring political story ever, probably best you don't post on a political betting site.............

AndyJS

"'Cool' London is dead, and the rich kids are to blame

The cool, creative class has been priced out of London, which means the capital is becoming more bland and boring by the minute, says Alex Proud

I have seen the future – and the future is Paris and Geneva.

The future is a clean, dull city populated by clean, dull rich people and clean, dull old people. The future is joyless Michelin starred restaurants and shops selling £3,000 chandeliers."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10744997/Cool-London-is-dead-and-the-rich-kids-are-to-blame.html