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The Tories are now in fifth place (with younger voters) – politicalbetting.com

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  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,186

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Nigelb said:

    Farage, the gift that keeps on giving.

    EU steel tariff hike threatens 'biggest ever crisis' for UK industry
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy875px79po
    The EU has announced plans to hike tariffs on imported steel in a move the UK's steel industry has said could be "perhaps the biggest crisis" it has ever faced.
    The commission has set out plans to cut the amount of steel that can be imported into the bloc by half - beyond which the new 50% tariffs will apply.
    The EU is the UK's most important export destination for steel, worth nearly £3bn and representing 78% of steel products made in the UK for overseas markets.
    The commission has come under pressure from some member states and their steel industries, which have been struggling to compete with cheap imports from countries like China and Turkey.
    The EU is proposing to reduce tariff-free quotas for imports to 18.3 million tonnes a year – a 47% reduction from 2024 levels...

    The theory that tariffs affect the country imposing them rather than the country they are imposed upon seems to have gone missing on Remainer PB this evening.

    Perhaps it was never quite that simple in the first place.
    Tariffs damage both our country and the EU.

    80% of our steel exports go there, or used to.

    But Brexit put us in this bad place.
    We do, however, buy more of their steel than they do ours.

    Being out has tariff advantages too: not paying 25% tariffs on Chinese EVs like our EU cousins, for example.

    I wonder what, if anything, we will tariff in response to these steel tariffs.
    Yes, so a tariff war damages us from both sides.

    Putting up trade barriers to our largest and closest market was supreme folly.

    Indeed if we were still in the EU we may have been able to stop a tariff war with other producers too.
    May be we could have a common trading area without all the politics stuff? Wouldn’t that be grand.
    The problem is... you can't and you never could. Making economic decisions is political by definition. Heath knew that at the time and said so clearly. Those looking for apolitical economics are wishing for the Moon.
    Of course these things are political. But that doesn’t mean you need a “ever closer union” monetary union, freedom of movement, etc etc
    Well, 27 countries have agreed to precisely that. That's the deal, not some anaemic non Union which doesn't exist and which it appears no one else supports.
    Which is why we left.

    And why it’s so dull the jabs from people like @Foxy - they just state a true fact (a free trade area is better) without talking about the costs (the political baggage) and think it’s some kind of killer point.
    It is if you're the UK steel industry, as you're about to get killed if we can't negotiate a deal.

    That going to be difficult. 50% of our production - and about 80% of exports - goes to Europe. With 50% tariffs, above the small tariff free quota, we won't sell a tonne.
    The numbers in the opposite direction are far, far smaller, so retaliation won't work.

    Which is a neat illustration of the problem.

    "Political baggage" is just a slogan. We're barely noticeably freer since we left, and around two thirds of the electorate agree with me that it was a mistake.
    What you do is: something that hurts them

    Refuse defense cooperation re Ukraine. Suspend British tourism to Spain and France. Block usage of British airspace and fishing in British seas

    TOW BACK ALL THE BOATS
    "Refuse defense cooperation re Ukraine"

    Yes, comrade, that will fit our interests very well... ;)
    Net off the cost of tariffs from the budget contributions we are still making to the EU?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,186
    bobbob said:

    Just read Starmer is making it so indian employees on assignment from outsourcing firms don’t have to pay national insurance anymore

    Great news for rishi sunaks family but bad news for uk jobs

    If they continue to pay social contributions in India and intend to return there after a short secondment they shouldn’t be charged here as well
  • TresTres Posts: 3,124

    bondegezou....Oakland, seemed like a lovely place....rest of PB who have visited, are you sure, it seemed well sketchy...

    Sunday morning, 500 person riot kicks off...a regular occurrence according to the News report.

    https://x.com/TheKevinDalton/status/1975291426847252991

    Yeah yeah, and London and Birmingham are no-go zones. Why do you keep amplifying this bollocks?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,186
    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Nigelb said:

    Farage, the gift that keeps on giving.

    EU steel tariff hike threatens 'biggest ever crisis' for UK industry
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy875px79po
    The EU has announced plans to hike tariffs on imported steel in a move the UK's steel industry has said could be "perhaps the biggest crisis" it has ever faced.
    The commission has set out plans to cut the amount of steel that can be imported into the bloc by half - beyond which the new 50% tariffs will apply.
    The EU is the UK's most important export destination for steel, worth nearly £3bn and representing 78% of steel products made in the UK for overseas markets.
    The commission has come under pressure from some member states and their steel industries, which have been struggling to compete with cheap imports from countries like China and Turkey.
    The EU is proposing to reduce tariff-free quotas for imports to 18.3 million tonnes a year – a 47% reduction from 2024 levels...

    The theory that tariffs affect the country imposing them rather than the country they are imposed upon seems to have gone missing on Remainer PB this evening.

    Perhaps it was never quite that simple in the first place.
    Tariffs damage both our country and the EU.

    80% of our steel exports go there, or used to.

    But Brexit put us in this bad place.
    We do, however, buy more of their steel than they do ours.

    Being out has tariff advantages too: not paying 25% tariffs on Chinese EVs like our EU cousins, for example.

    I wonder what, if anything, we will tariff in response to these steel tariffs.
    Yes, so a tariff war damages us from both sides.

    Putting up trade barriers to our largest and closest market was supreme folly.

    Indeed if we were still in the EU we may have been able to stop a tariff war with other producers too.
    May be we could have a common trading area without all the politics stuff? Wouldn’t that be grand.
    The problem is... you can't and you never could. Making economic decisions is political by definition. Heath knew that at the time and said so clearly. Those looking for apolitical economics are wishing for the Moon.
    Of course these things are political. But that doesn’t mean you need a “ever closer union” monetary union, freedom of movement, etc etc
    Well, 27 countries have agreed to precisely that. That's the deal, not some anaemic non Union which doesn't exist and which it appears no one else supports.
    Which is why we left.

    And why it’s so dull the jabs from people like @Foxy - they just state a true fact (a free trade area is better) without talking about the costs (the political baggage) and think it’s some kind of killer point.
    Brexit has failed, indeed it is the primary reason that our nation is so divided and run down.

    So we have the man most responsible for that debacle in pole position for PM in 2029.

    We never learn.
    Nah, that’s just self satisfied chuntering.

    The issue is that politicians focus on near term current spending rather than capital investment and then increased net immigration without building capacity in government services.

    The growth in public service demand is due to demographics mainly. Immigration is partly to provide capacity for that demand in the care sector.
    You have a strong argument that the increase in demand should have been planned for, future demographic changes are in plain sight.
    So that's on the coalition and conservative govts. 2010-5 they reduced capacity, 2016-24 they wasted on Brexit
    Capacity utilisation is really about schools / housing. Schools are driven by immigration; GPs by immigration and demographics; housing by immigration and household formation (more split and blended families).
  • TresTres Posts: 3,124
    Taz said:

    See our mates in the EU have whacked massive tariffs on our steel industry.

    Presumably tariffs are okay now and it’s all our fault for leaving the EU ?

    I mean - yes? If we hadn't left we wouldn't get this tariff would we shrugemoji
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,929
    Tres said:

    bondegezou....Oakland, seemed like a lovely place....rest of PB who have visited, are you sure, it seemed well sketchy...

    Sunday morning, 500 person riot kicks off...a regular occurrence according to the News report.

    https://x.com/TheKevinDalton/status/1975291426847252991

    Yeah yeah, and London and Birmingham are no-go zones. Why do you keep amplifying this bollocks?
    Oakland’s always been the sketchier side of the Bay Area IIUC
  • TresTres Posts: 3,124
    DougSeal said:

    Tres said:

    bondegezou....Oakland, seemed like a lovely place....rest of PB who have visited, are you sure, it seemed well sketchy...

    Sunday morning, 500 person riot kicks off...a regular occurrence according to the News report.

    https://x.com/TheKevinDalton/status/1975291426847252991

    Yeah yeah, and London and Birmingham are no-go zones. Why do you keep amplifying this bollocks?
    Oakland’s always been the sketchier side of the Bay Area IIUC
    sketchiest place in the US is Jackson MS but since MS is a red state you never get reports on it
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,440

    a

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    See our mates in the EU have whacked massive tariffs on our steel industry.

    Presumably tariffs are okay now and it’s all our fault for leaving the EU ?

    No, it's an economic fact of life in the age of Trump. The last country or trade block to protect their steel industry will probably lose it.

    And of course once you're outside the club, it's not just some of the members you gave to persuade to get a deal.
    Which puts us in an awkward spot.

    As noted yesterday, Farage's pet project is the gift which will keep giving.
    And a third of the electorate apparently still want the pillock to run the country.
    Ah, it’s all Trump and Farage’s fault 👍
    Well Farage certainly bears a significant responsibility for Brexit, as I'm sure he'd agree.
    And Trump brought back massive tarriffs to world trade, for the first time in decades.

    Are you claiming otherwise ?
    In isolation both of those statements are broadly correct however neither is relevant to the tariffs the only people responsible for these tariffs are the EU.

    The EU has constantly condemned Trumps tariffs, rightly so.

    They are hypocrites
    I think there is a difference between using tariffs in a limited and selective way for the purpose of defending specific industries - as the EU has done with steel - and the blunt force trauma approach that Trump has taken to increasing tariffs across the board.

    It's sad that Brexit supporters are still blinded by their antipathy towards the EU that they are unable to see that difference.

    I would hope that the UK would be able to negotiate with the EU an exemption to these tariff changes, which are surely primarily intended to protect the European steel industry from Chinese dumping of steel, rather than from the much smaller quantity of steel from Britain.
    If the EU (or anyone else) wants to protect the steel industry, long term, then it needs to work out how to produce steel cheaply.

    But tariffs are the fentanyl of politics. A cheap, quick high. That fucks you up.
    Yes. Essentially tariffs reduce competition and that increases inefficiency.

    If it's done for a limited period while you put in place changes, then it's okay, but like you say, it's addictive, and you can get trapped with the inefficiency.
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