Soon we could see the Tories fifth in the polling – politicalbetting.com
Soon we could see the Tories fifth in the polling – politicalbetting.com
For all those off to Liverpool. Lowest #Labour vote share since June 2009 . Worst ever rating for a sitting PM since we started on this measure in 1977…. Tories can’t mock – they have worst rating ever measured (since 1976) ….#strangetimes https://t.co/5rE3R94jrt pic.twitter.com/qsgW3T18Ie
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The Tories are approaching it from above. v
The LDs are approaching it from below. ^
And if anyone wants to defeat Farage then the conservative party is an important element in that
As far as Badenoch is concerned I await her conferences speech with interest
Anyway I love these polls. A plague on both their houses
Although it could, with luck, be a three way fight; Conservative/Labour/Reform.
It's not over until the fat lady sings, but there is a deep alto tune coming from somewhere nearby. And those of us who think of ourselves as on the moderate right are going to have to decide which of those words matters more to us.
As for me, I think I know the answer, but it will make my ancestors spin in their graves...
Should I prepare for government?
5th
This feels like a death spiral now, for the Tories. As you say there’s a tipping point when they look terminally irrelevant and any vote for them is wasted. They are horribly close to that point, and it’s not obvious how they reverse the slide. Dumping poor Kemi is necessary - but not sufficient
Labour have different problems. Unlikely to go extinct but facing a defeat so bad they are out of power for 15 years
I am almost regretting vote for her.
A fie on the parliamentary Tory Party for giving me a choice between Badenoch and Jenrick.
Of interest labour has lost 12% to Reform, 11% to Lib Dems and 10% to Greens
He said the 2024 labour support has fractured in all directions
The current Labour leadership has bought into the AI bullshit version of this.
The sad, sad thing, is that genuine management - making choices, delivering results and keeping control of costs while maintaining a happy ship - is a deep skill that is so very rare. And vital.
Win win
The next election should ideally be LDs versus Reform. That would be a good clear choice for the people. The two big parties need to go extinct now
I am writing a piece which should go up later on this week which points out based on the MRPs/polls Reform are on course to win the election with a lower vote share/votes than Labour in 2024 (the YouGov MRP had them on 27%) and we saw how unpopular Labour became.
I reckon within a year of the next election Reform could be in the single digits and we end up with a very left wing party leading the polls such as the Greens.
Reform win, fuck it all up, and the NEXT government is far left
It is quite possible, especially as by then we may need UBI
We are in a hi-tech rehash of the 1930s
“If Eric Kemi gets it we’ll have a party split in three months. If it’s DuncanRobert, it’ll take three weeks.
Oh for a political leader of the calibre of James Hacker...
The fact that Wera Hobhouse hasn't been expelled for pushing 5G conspiracy theories is another black mark.
I suspect they are all living lives of quiet desperation.
.
Kemi might be the Tories' best bet at the moment, if the alternative threatens to swing the party too far in one direction.
Absolutely nothing on the BBC about his tacit approval of Trump's paracetamol-autism link, eating swans, and no calling out Trump's Sharia law in London claim. No analysis of Farage and the NHS. Couching his casual racism as normal, no wonder he's riding high.
And Nathan Gill? Zip, nada, nothing ( except on here). Imagine if a Tory or Labour MEP had pleaded guilty to shilling for Putin.
Call Reform and Farage out. Call out Dubai's own Richard Tice. Tell it like it is and the Tories claw back some support. Instead they probably replace Kemi with Jenrick who is Farage heavy and has a back story of a very dodgy donation from a Pornographer and donor. Call him out too. If he's your man, you deserve the oblivion you probably won't then get.
Come on Tories, come on Kemi. Reform is your foe, fight them on the beaches of Clacton, Frinton and Great Yarmouth. They are on your manor.
Farron's seat will stay LD, who have nearly zero chance in the others. Who do you vote for to vote against Reform in the others?
At least with Labour, you know there is clear water betwen them and Reform. With the Tories, I have no idea as they are bipolar. SFAICS the bipolarity is absolutely killing them, while making their minmd up could kill them quicker.
(My current view: take a deep breath and vote Labour through gritted teeth).
You're like Rory, struggling to overcome a deep suspicion of the LDs, not recognising that you're fighting an attraction. You need to come out as an LD. You'll be welcomed, as will Rory.
"Laurie Wastell
Nigel Farage has a point about migrants eating swans
26 September 2025" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nigel-farage-has-a-point-about-migrants-eating-swans/
I doubt this policy will last.
““There is an enemy”.
Pretty extraordinary language from Starmer re Reform and Farage, especially given his personal friendliness in past.
This is centrism now. Just a series of enemies (Corbyn, Farage, Polanski, the SNP…Burnham!) rather than an actual agenda for government.”
https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1971665355363045873?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
The prime minister, whose party is polling 16-22% has just called all the supporters of the party polling 30-34% - ie one third of the nation - “the enemy”
This is such bad politics it’s farcical. He will only entrench the opposition and harden the hearts of those who already dislike him. And it won’t win him a single vote
SPotY. The problem is the BBC's eccentric shortlisting. Good luck to Stocky (fpt) on his Fleetwood bet, but it depends on the BBC looking past Rory McIlroy for the golf slot after his major win (the US Masters) last April brought up his career grand slam – only the sixth golfer to achieve this.
ETA Ellie Kildunne actually drifted in the SPotY betting after yesterday's World Cup win, in which she scored an (apparently) outstanding first try. I can only imagine that in leaving the car park, she ran over a young orphan taking her poorly kitten to the vet. Or maybe punters started to wonder if she too would be nominated.
I'm slightly confident about Starmer raising his game. He's quite a fast learner and by now he will realise that chasing populism is a fools errand. He's smart enough to know that people want authenticity and now he's tried the rest that should be next on his list. I saw an early interview with him and there's definitely something there.
A moderate right of centre party is a good thing. The Tories are not delivering at the moment and seem irrelevant in the face of the howling bot-amplified screams from Reform. But ultimately they will be back.
I like to think of your chuckling over your crème de menthe frappe in sunny Villefranche as you typed out that ludicrously Roger-esque bilge, perfectly replete with imbecile non-facts and absurd non sequiturs
Amongst the post waiting for us was a glossy four page leaflet from the local MP, Linsey Farnsworth, which is a litany of her successes and accomplishments from her first year as Amber Valley’s MP and also mentions her Private Members Bill - the Unauthorised Entry to Football Matches Bill.
In this missive, you won’t find the following words - Labour, Conservative or Reform.
It could have been produced by an Independent Councillor - I’ve seen LD and Conservative leaflets of this type, politically non-political and often a good thing if the Party label is unpopular.
On current trends, it’s hard to see anything other than a Reform win in Amber Valley next time though the GE is a long way off.
And now I must drink coffee and do some work on this grey cool Sunday. Later
I will continue to do what I have done at almost every GE. I will study and if possible talk to the candidates standing in my constituency, expecially the independents and will then either vote for an independent or will spoil my ballot. I will not vote for any candidate backed by any of the four (in my area) main parties as that affiliation on their part shows a serious and irredeemable lack of intelligence.
The key question is whether you would vote Liberal Democrat tactically to stop Reform - I suspect those who did so to stop the Conservatives wouldn’t have any issue if it were to stop Farage becoming Prime Minister.
That is the point Trevor Phillips put to Steve Reed this morning
How Keir Starmer could survive and even win the next election: my weekend article for @Independent
https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1971931441245110281?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
The construction of three new towns will begin before the next general election, Labour has pledged.
3 (not) new towns, to hopefully start to be built 5+ years after they were first planned.
But if Starmer must do this damn silly thing, he should not do it in this damn silly way. As you suggest, Starmer seems not to have realised the difference between attacking Reform politicians and attacking the general public who might be flirting with them.
And especially not when the proximate cause of Epping was not opposition to migrants per se, but protecting young girls. It is the careless, supercilious centrism that led to the grooming scandals in Rotherham and elsewhere. Of course racists are bad, but so are rapists and most people, if not most politicians, can happily oppose both.
I remain shocked and sad about his news, and hope he and his wife take time to come to terms with their loss and find comfort in their Christian faith
When Keir Starmer gave a field to his parents, he used a "life interest trust". This meant that, as its value grew from £20k to £300k, it was outside their inheritance tax estate.
How did this work? And was it tax avoidance?
🧵
https://x.com/danneidle/status/1972201110929568092?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://x.com/johncornelius01/status/1972186285529092146
Sorry @Roger that is nonsense, and why on earth is Starmer making his conference about calling 30-34% of the Reform support the 'enemy' ?
No wonder even his membership are turning against him, and how do you explain he is polling as the worst PM even eclipsing Liz Truss ?
What the polling consistency since the election has achieved is giving Farage the air of inevitability. Sure, there’s a decent demographic who would vote tactically for Satan to block Farage. That demographic is well represented (over represented?) on here. But there’s also a massive demographic that hates the Tories/labour/both with enough gusto that by 2029, we might even see a tactical voting net swing in favour of Farage rather than against, compared with the polling averages.
In order they appear in the header, they’re:
LLG 46 RefCon 48
LLG 41 RefCon 50
LLG 47 RefCon 45
So we have quite the spread between Find out Now giving the right a 9% lead, and Yougov with LLG slightly in the lead.
But in all of them the SPLORG has a handsome margin. The highest Lab-Con is 37% in YouGov.
IMHO the largest problem in the way of this is not the future but the past. Older voters (I am 70) have two perceptions about the past. Firstly that it was, on the whole, a happier place for young people, and secondly that the accumulated baggage of the world on the 21st century (Twin Towers, Iraq, GFC, NHS, migration, Brexit etc) mean that any government starts off needing 500 to win with three wickets left because of how the earlier batsmen failed.
Only of a type of racism that 'anti-racists', supercilious centrists and the alphabet soup pretend doesn't exist.
One might almost call his extrapolations wishcasting.
They really are losing it
Mind very slightly blown.
I got my hopes up when I noticed the obvious donkey in Keir Rodney, but I can't make anything funny out of the rest
The desperate chasing of popularity via focus group just made it worse.
For a large chunk of the country, it’s try a new provider under one works.
There is a grim amusement to see some here, who used to decry unthinking tribal loyalty, now faced with the results.
If you tease out the unemployed that are mislabelled in the universal credit scheme, we are probably already at or around 10% unemployment. Not far into the next decade we should assume that might have risen to 30%, due to automation of the kind you mention. Hard to predict beyond that but predictions of 90% unemployment in or by the decade afterwards, are not incredible.
I find it increasingly hard to imagine the capitalist system surviving much longer, a socialist society seems an inevitability.
I don't think Dan Neidle is out to get Starmer. He is a Labour member and says he just saw a wrinkle in Starmer's story that he couldn't ignore
Whether you like it or not, the truth is you can get away with Independently minded types on a parish or small District council but the United Kingdom is a massively complex, multi-layered nuanced geographical and historical construct of nearly 70 million people. Governing it is far from simple or straightforward and I’d argue the complexity of the modern world has further increased that difficulty to the extent one ideology, however coherent, won’t do the job any longer.
My personal view is post-industrial post-work western societies are almost ungovernable and certainly not by groupings whose ideological roots are in the 19th and 20th centuries if not earlier. New ideologies and doctrines will emerge but they will be unrecognisable from what has been the case hitherto.
Alongside the insidious bad news of ageing populations and a changing climate that is itself triggering wars, unrest and migration. And the self-fulfilling prophesy of this all bringing a populist to power in the US who is now upending global trade with his tariff policy.
So there’s been a middle order batting collapse. It’s one of the reasons I feel the world really needs a few years of calm more than anything else. Each crisis eats away at GDP, productivity and the assets of governments, and in so doing further erodes the foundations of liberal democracy.
It is Trumpian "they are eating the cats and dogs" rhetoric. Farage is a low rent Trump.
It is not relevant. It is a crock...