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This is not a good look for the Deputy Prime Minister – politicalbetting.com

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  • nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,701
    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    Agree.

    She needs to accept her time now is limited and aim to at least have some decent reform to her name. She should bite the bullet and sort out council tax and the funding of local government.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,398
    edited September 3
    Astonishing first PMQs of the new school term. The Chancellors abattoir chic fringe has dissolved into bangs! And during the summer break she has had plastic surgery.
    And people are banging on about Chagos again 😇
  • nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


    There is always a tweet...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,580
    I missed Trump's invasion of Washington DC with Park Keepers:


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/sep/01/soldiers-landscaping-washington-dc-crime
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,086

    nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


    There is always a tweet.

    If you want to go into politics, don't tweet anything, ANYTHING, controversial. Stick to 'nice sunset tonight'...
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,137

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    Good job she has always been so forgiving over “mistakes” by her opponents.

    This was our Ange reacting to Rishi apologising for his mistake re the Boris Birthday:

    But the "full" and "unreserved" apologies did not silence critics of the PM and chancellor.
    Labour's deputy leader, Angela Rayner, tweeted: "You made the rules. You broke your own law. Just go."


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,669
    edited September 3
    The commentariat are furious that Badenoch didnt leap over the despatch box and throttle Ange live during PMQs

    She's (Rayner) toast. Would be a waste of questions
  • nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


    There is always a tweet.

    If you want to go into politics, don't tweet anything, ANYTHING, controversial. Stick to 'nice sunset tonight'...
    At very least auto-delete service. Delete everything prior to going anywhere near politics and delete your tweets every week or two. Yes, there are now services that cache famous people, but it makes it harder to search / dig them out.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,580
    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    You have to persuade Holyrood, I think? It is devolved.

    Perhaps they would follow suit.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,925
    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    Yes, it’s perception rather than reality. A bit like the Starmer excuse that all the free stuff was within the rules, and how badly that landed.

    If she’s had bad advice then I sympathise, but then I go back to the fact that if I was in the public sphere and I had anything weird and wonderful in my tax affairs, I’d be saying to my advisors please a) err on the side of caution, if there’s an ambiguity b) can I check this with HMRC and get something from them confirming one way or the other - even if it’s not definitive, it’s a paper record that I tried.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,137
    I’m guessing that anyone who might fancy their chances at running the country wouldn’t be so careless with checking legal and tax advice a second time round. Maybe they would be suitably careful and double, triple check?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/12/police-to-investigate-angela-rayner-over-residency-declaration
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,842
    Well, unsurprisingly that turned out to be really, really bad for Angela Rayner Kemi Badenoch
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,842
    @DPJHodges

    Kemi Badenoch hasn’t just missed an open goal. She’s missed the goal. She’s punched her manager. She’s then stormed into the stands and accosted the owner. She’s then charged out onto the street, torched the team bus, her kit, and set light to the entire stadium.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,695

    Could she not have just hired a good accountant?

    Very good advice.

    When I sold my old flat, I did that. I’d done my own CGT calculation - the accountant saved me a fortune, compared to that.

    He gave me a file (PDF) actually, demonstrating his methodology, backed with receipts etc. Really gave confidence that he’d got it right and evidence if it was ever questioned.

    As part of it he did my tax return for that year. And noticed that HR at my company had mucked up my tax code. Sorted it out and got me a rebate!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,233
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    You have to persuade Holyrood, I think? It is devolved.

    Perhaps they would follow suit.
    Other way round perhaps, too. Last time, when Holyrood introduced a more rational scale in terns of stepping, Mr Osborne followed pronto.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,701

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Angela Rayner may have been gagged from speaking out by a court order. But her friends, allies and colleagues weren't. Anyone who thinks this is politically survivable for her is living in on another planet.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,695
    a
    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    Can’t bin stamp duty now - “Chancellor abolishes tax she failed to pay” etc
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,626
    IanB2 said:

    By the time the Labour leadership contest arrives, Streeting will strangely be the only one without a kneecap injury?

    Gay MP in Ilford, he will need to do a chicken run.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,714
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    You have to persuade Holyrood, I think? It is devolved.

    Perhaps they would follow suit.
    It is indeed, and at a much higher rate for expensive properties.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,669


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Angela Rayner may have been gagged from speaking out by a court order. But her friends, allies and colleagues weren't. Anyone who thinks this is politically survivable for her is living in on another planet.

    Gone by supper in floods of tears at the tragedy of the world
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,059
    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Kemi Badenoch hasn’t just missed an open goal. She’s missed the goal. She’s punched her manager. She’s then stormed into the stands and accosted the owner. She’s then charged out onto the street, torched the team bus, her kit, and set light to the entire stadium.

    Doesn't matter, Rayner is the story today. Followed by Reeves upcoming November horror show.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,714

    a

    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    Can’t bin stamp duty now - “Chancellor abolishes tax she failed to pay” etc
    :(
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,701
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Kemi Badenoch hasn’t just missed an open goal. She’s missed the goal. She’s punched her manager. She’s then stormed into the stands and accosted the owner. She’s then charged out onto the street, torched the team bus, her kit, and set light to the entire stadium.

    Doesn't matter, Rayner is the story today. Followed by Reeves upcoming November horror show.
    Kemi can be deposed from 1st November I believe.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,842
    @timothy_stanley

    Kemi has fluffed this PMQS, failing to nail Rayner. Suspect Rayner has a better chance of keeping her job than Kemi.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,382

    nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


    ISAs are a nice example of a tax avoidance scheme.
    Another tax dodge is to buy chocolate cake instead of chocolate biscuits.
    Yet another is to use money buy a house, thus avoiding future CGT, and also avoiding up to 40% of £350,000 per married couple in IHT.
    A super dodge is to get paid for not working (eg pensions) instead of working, saving large amounts of NI payments.
    Another is to reach the age of 66 but still work, with the same effect as above.
    Another is to give under Gift Aid, robbing the state of tax revenue

    I use five of these six, but I like chocolate biscuits too much. I feel like a criminal.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,137


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Angela Rayner may have been gagged from speaking out by a court order. But her friends, allies and colleagues weren't. Anyone who thinks this is politically survivable for her is living in on another planet.

    Gone by supper in floods of tears at the tragedy of the world
    She does love a resignation. Loads of google results of her demanding various Tories resign for various failures and three examples of her “threatening to resign”, over Covid gatherings, over her 2024 council tax/property issues and over the current mess.

    Maybe she should finally set the example/do what she demands of others rather than just empty threats.
  • Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Kemi Badenoch hasn’t just missed an open goal. She’s missed the goal. She’s punched her manager. She’s then stormed into the stands and accosted the owner. She’s then charged out onto the street, torched the team bus, her kit, and set light to the entire stadium.

    Called it.....just call her Ronny.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,059

    Could she not have just hired a good accountant?

    Very good advice.

    When I sold my old flat, I did that. I’d done my own CGT calculation - the accountant saved me a fortune, compared to that.

    He gave me a file (PDF) actually, demonstrating his methodology, backed with receipts etc. Really gave confidence that he’d got it right and evidence if it was ever questioned.

    As part of it he did my tax return for that year. And noticed that HR at my company had mucked up my tax code. Sorted it out and got me a rebate!
    I'll be doing a corporation tax calc for my company at year end. Will have to see how it compares to the accountants. At half year my calc was only a couple of grand difference (Less !) to simply taking 25% :D
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,669
    edited September 3
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Kemi Badenoch hasn’t just missed an open goal. She’s missed the goal. She’s punched her manager. She’s then stormed into the stands and accosted the owner. She’s then charged out onto the street, torched the team bus, her kit, and set light to the entire stadium.

    Doesn't matter, Rayner is the story today. Followed by Reeves upcoming November horror show.
    Quite. The obsession with PMQs that barely anyone watches live outside the media is weird. If the Tories want a scalp they need to let it play out whilst bringing it up in interviews etc where there's no rally round the wounded kitten thing going on, not chase a soundbite.
    This scandal will play itself out without intervention. They need to focus on taking unwarranted credit at the denouement
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,714
    edited September 3

    The commentariat are furious that Badenoch didnt leap over the despatch box and throttle Ange live during PMQs

    She's (Rayner) toast. Would be a waste of questions

    ... no offence but this is a crazy take. Huge political scandal and the smart thing to do is not bring it up at PMQs, the most juvenile and brutal of political forums?

    C'mon.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,137

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Kemi Badenoch hasn’t just missed an open goal. She’s missed the goal. She’s punched her manager. She’s then stormed into the stands and accosted the owner. She’s then charged out onto the street, torched the team bus, her kit, and set light to the entire stadium.

    Doesn't matter, Rayner is the story today. Followed by Reeves upcoming November horror show.
    Quite. The obsession with PMQs that barely anyone watches live outside the media is weird. If the Tories want a scalp they need to let it play out whilst bringing it up in interviews etc where there's no rally round the wounded kitten thing going on, not chase a soundbite.
    This scandal will play itself out without intervention. They need to focus on taking unwarranted credit at the denouement
    It’s also probably better for the Tories that everybody apart from Kemi does the attacks as she would have just made a half arsed effort at PMQs and ballsed it all up.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,842
    @TaliFraser

    Reactions from Tories:

    ‘There is no instinct and it always shows’

    ‘If only Rayner’s interview had been 4 weeks ago, Kemi would have had just enough time to prepare herself’
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,669

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Kemi Badenoch hasn’t just missed an open goal. She’s missed the goal. She’s punched her manager. She’s then stormed into the stands and accosted the owner. She’s then charged out onto the street, torched the team bus, her kit, and set light to the entire stadium.

    Doesn't matter, Rayner is the story today. Followed by Reeves upcoming November horror show.
    Kemi can be deposed from 1st November I believe.

    Not a chance anyone moves on her before May. None of them want to take that hit
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,086
    Scott_xP said:

    @TaliFraser

    Reactions from Tories:

    ‘There is no instinct and it always shows’

    ‘If only Rayner’s interview had been 4 weeks ago, Kemi would have had just enough time to prepare herself’

    What was Badenoch supposed to do? Starmer would have swatted away every question to roars of approval from the Labour benches.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,833
    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    Doesn’t everyone have to do a self assessment above £100k? As inflation continues more and more people will be doing them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,174
    edited September 3

    Scott_xP said:

    @TaliFraser

    Reactions from Tories:

    ‘There is no instinct and it always shows’

    ‘If only Rayner’s interview had been 4 weeks ago, Kemi would have had just enough time to prepare herself’

    What was Badenoch supposed to do? Starmer would have swatted away every question to roars of approval from the Labour benches.
    A really canny operator (which Starmer started to do to Boris although it was very easy against Boris) was setup them up so they get themselves in a bind. The car crash comes later.
  • Could she not have just hired a good accountant?

    Very good advice.

    When I sold my old flat, I did that. I’d done my own CGT calculation - the accountant saved me a fortune, compared to that.

    He gave me a file (PDF) actually, demonstrating his methodology, backed with receipts etc. Really gave confidence that he’d got it right and evidence if it was ever questioned.

    As part of it he did my tax return for that year. And noticed that HR at my company had mucked up my tax code. Sorted it out and got me a rebate!
    Also, once he has passed the proposed action then his professional insurance will pay if there is any comeback.

    I am bemused there could be anyone at the MP level, or even senior councillor who does not have an accountant 24-7.

    I am also bemused that any contributors here could think her behaviour was or could be an oversight. I can see Starmer has a problem with sacking her but she will have to go alone in the next 48 hours or else when she does go he will have to go with her. I make no bones about it, for me this is the best news since 5 July 2024.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,266
    boulay said:

    How patronising:

    “ But Starmer says he is “proud” to sit beside Rayner, who is building 1.5m homes and has come from a working class background to be deputy PM.”

    £800k holiday flats a very long way from either her constituency or her place of work. Yep, can't get more working class than that.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,714

    Scott_xP said:

    @TaliFraser

    Reactions from Tories:

    ‘There is no instinct and it always shows’

    ‘If only Rayner’s interview had been 4 weeks ago, Kemi would have had just enough time to prepare herself’

    What was Badenoch supposed to do? Starmer would have swatted away every question to roars of approval from the Labour benches.
    It's been bubbling away for several days. 6 questions on it is not a difficult ask, particularly if you link it to the freebies stuff, the upcoming budget etc.
  • DavidL said:

    boulay said:

    How patronising:

    “ But Starmer says he is “proud” to sit beside Rayner, who is building 1.5m homes and has come from a working class background to be deputy PM.”

    £800k holiday flats a very long way from either her constituency or her place of work. Yep, can't get more working class than that.
    Her mistake, she should be one of those tax dodging farmers.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,669
    Eabhal said:

    The commentariat are furious that Badenoch didnt leap over the despatch box and throttle Ange live during PMQs

    She's (Rayner) toast. Would be a waste of questions

    ... no offence but this is a crazy take. Huge political scandal and the smart thing to do is not bring it up at PMQs, the most juvenile and brutal of political forums?

    C'mon.
    It achieves nothing. Rayners not going to resign at PMQs.
    Its a product of 24/7 news industry demanding instant gratification on every story. Its not like they can only pursue this at PMQs

    It will piss off her backbenchers though who are equally addicted to the quick hit
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,669
    boulay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Kemi Badenoch hasn’t just missed an open goal. She’s missed the goal. She’s punched her manager. She’s then stormed into the stands and accosted the owner. She’s then charged out onto the street, torched the team bus, her kit, and set light to the entire stadium.

    Doesn't matter, Rayner is the story today. Followed by Reeves upcoming November horror show.
    Quite. The obsession with PMQs that barely anyone watches live outside the media is weird. If the Tories want a scalp they need to let it play out whilst bringing it up in interviews etc where there's no rally round the wounded kitten thing going on, not chase a soundbite.
    This scandal will play itself out without intervention. They need to focus on taking unwarranted credit at the denouement
    It’s also probably better for the Tories that everybody apart from Kemi does the attacks as she would have just made a half arsed effort at PMQs and ballsed it all up.
    That is also true lol
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,842
    @charlotteahenry

    How is Kemi Badenoch's job more in peril today than Angela Rayner's? How has she managed this? HOW?!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,925
    Kemi was crap at PMQs, Starmer was crap at PMQs. Watching them both, you long for the days that someone was deft enough to actually try and bring some genuine incisiveness to the event. Cameron/Miliband were probably the last such pairing (only on occasion).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,714

    Eabhal said:

    The commentariat are furious that Badenoch didnt leap over the despatch box and throttle Ange live during PMQs

    She's (Rayner) toast. Would be a waste of questions

    ... no offence but this is a crazy take. Huge political scandal and the smart thing to do is not bring it up at PMQs, the most juvenile and brutal of political forums?

    C'mon.
    It achieves nothing. Rayners not going to resign at PMQs.
    Its a product of 24/7 news industry demanding instant gratification on every story. Its not like they can only pursue this at PMQs

    It will piss off her backbenchers though who are equally addicted to the quick hit
    Well Badenoch shouldn't turn up to PMQs in that case. It's not the right setting for anything other than political scandal.

    And certainly not for some technical conversation about the deficit that we've heard a million times before. It would be like Starmer bringing up the two-child limit just after the COVID parties story broke.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,925
    Scott_xP said:

    @charlotteahenry

    How is Kemi Badenoch's job more in peril today than Angela Rayner's? How has she managed this? HOW?!

    LOL, its really not. But I think we all know she’s on borrowed time.
  • Westminster Spaceport. Never will you find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. We must be cautious!
  • OT - Prior to today Rayner was most likely to be the next PM and no doubt losing that is a difficult pill to swallow.

    However, this is a resignation issue both as a Minister and IMHO as an MP. I understand current MPs tend to think these things don't matter but they do. Certainly she should be gone as a Minister and putting the ball in Starmer's court to sack her rather than being ready to preempt the inevitable is not the sign of either a team player or a capable politician
  • Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    Yes, it’s perception rather than reality. A bit like the Starmer excuse that all the free stuff was within the rules, and how badly that landed.

    If she’s had bad advice then I sympathise, but then I go back to the fact that if I was in the public sphere and I had anything weird and wonderful in my tax affairs, I’d be saying to my advisors please a) err on the side of caution, if there’s an ambiguity b) can I check this with HMRC and get something from them confirming one way or the other - even if it’s not definitive, it’s a paper record that I tried.
    If any professional person, lawyer or accountant allowed her to do this then they are in deep shit themselves. Certainly they would be bound to fork out the costs. I cannot believe either a lawyer or an accountant would pass this. I know from personal experience when a draft lease was prepared by "the other side" for me to sign, I got back the very clear advice from both land agent and accountant "You must not sign this document and if you do you will no longer be our client". And that was a hell of a lot less than £800k !

    I am talking about professional accountants, not Rachel from Accounts !
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,669
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    The commentariat are furious that Badenoch didnt leap over the despatch box and throttle Ange live during PMQs

    She's (Rayner) toast. Would be a waste of questions

    ... no offence but this is a crazy take. Huge political scandal and the smart thing to do is not bring it up at PMQs, the most juvenile and brutal of political forums?

    C'mon.
    It achieves nothing. Rayners not going to resign at PMQs.
    Its a product of 24/7 news industry demanding instant gratification on every story. Its not like they can only pursue this at PMQs

    It will piss off her backbenchers though who are equally addicted to the quick hit
    Well Badenoch shouldn't turn up to PMQs in that case. It's not the right setting for anything other than political scandal.

    And certainly not for some technical conversation about the deficit that we've heard a million times before. It would be like Starmer bringing up the two-child limit just after the COVID parties story broke.
    Maybe PMQs should go then and be replaced with something useful
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,998
    kinabalu said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    My penalty was in the lowest tier but was big enough that Mrs U was informed we would be buying economy bog roll for the forseeable future.
    Tight arse.
    Tight arses still need to be wiped.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,625
    edited September 3

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Kemi Badenoch hasn’t just missed an open goal. She’s missed the goal. She’s punched her manager. She’s then stormed into the stands and accosted the owner. She’s then charged out onto the street, torched the team bus, her kit, and set light to the entire stadium.

    Doesn't matter, Rayner is the story today. Followed by Reeves upcoming November horror show.
    Quite. The obsession with PMQs that barely anyone watches live outside the media is weird. If the Tories want a scalp they need to let it play out whilst bringing it up in interviews etc where there's no rally round the wounded kitten thing going on, not chase a soundbite.
    This scandal will play itself out without intervention. They need to focus on taking unwarranted credit at the denouement
    If Badenoch can’t dance at PMQs then she’s unlikely to be able to dance in the GE debates and interviews.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,314

    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    Doesn’t everyone have to do a self assessment above £100k? As inflation continues more and more people will be doing them.
    That threshold went up to 150K a year or two ago, and I think has now been removed entirely from the "do you need to do self assessment" criteria.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,669
    Foss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Kemi Badenoch hasn’t just missed an open goal. She’s missed the goal. She’s punched her manager. She’s then stormed into the stands and accosted the owner. She’s then charged out onto the street, torched the team bus, her kit, and set light to the entire stadium.

    Doesn't matter, Rayner is the story today. Followed by Reeves upcoming November horror show.
    Quite. The obsession with PMQs that barely anyone watches live outside the media is weird. If the Tories want a scalp they need to let it play out whilst bringing it up in interviews etc where there's no rally round the wounded kitten thing going on, not chase a soundbite.
    This scandal will play itself out without intervention. They need to focus on taking unwarranted credit at the denouement
    If Badenoch can’t dance at PMQs then she’s unlikely to be able to dance in the GE debates.
    Also true. She's not a good leader and im not trying to argue that she is.
    She's a placeholder
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,158


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Angela Rayner may have been gagged from speaking out by a court order. But her friends, allies and colleagues weren't. Anyone who thinks this is politically survivable for her is living in on another planet.

    Ah so she's safe.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Could she not have just hired a good accountant?

    Very good advice.

    When I sold my old flat, I did that. I’d done my own CGT calculation - the accountant saved me a fortune, compared to that.

    He gave me a file (PDF) actually, demonstrating his methodology, backed with receipts etc. Really gave confidence that he’d got it right and evidence if it was ever questioned.

    As part of it he did my tax return for that year. And noticed that HR at my company had mucked up my tax code. Sorted it out and got me a rebate!
    I'll be doing a corporation tax calc for my company at year end. Will have to see how it compares to the accountants. At half year my calc was only a couple of grand difference (Less !) to simply taking 25% :D
    Yeah I've become pretty good at calculating mine as well...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,695

    nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


    There is always a tweet...
    https://youtu.be/d3Mrfut-FSw?si=ar9oM4h-scszPVDu
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,287
    "GPT-5, OpenAI’s latest artificial intelligence system, was supposed to be a game-changer, the culmination of billions of dollars of investment and nearly three years of work. Sam Altman, the company’s chief executive, implied that GPT-5 could be tantamount to artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I. — A.I. that is as smart and as flexible as any human expert.

    Instead, as I have written, the model fell short. Within hours of its release, critics found all kinds of baffling errors: It failed some simple math questions, couldn’t count reliably and sometimes provided absurd answers to old riddles. Like its predecessors, the A.I. model still hallucinates (though at a lower rate) and is plagued by questions around its reliability. Although some people have been impressed, few saw it as a quantum leap, and nobody believed it was A.G.I. Many users asked for the old model back.

    GPT-5 is a step forward, but nowhere near the A.I. revolution many had expected. That is bad news for the companies and investors who placed substantial bets on the technology." (£)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/opinion/ai-gpt5-rethinking.html
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,695
    edited September 3

    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    Yes, it’s perception rather than reality. A bit like the Starmer excuse that all the free stuff was within the rules, and how badly that landed.

    If she’s had bad advice then I sympathise, but then I go back to the fact that if I was in the public sphere and I had anything weird and wonderful in my tax affairs, I’d be saying to my advisors please a) err on the side of caution, if there’s an ambiguity b) can I check this with HMRC and get something from them confirming one way or the other - even if it’s not definitive, it’s a paper record that I tried.
    If any professional person, lawyer or accountant allowed her to do this then they are in deep shit themselves. Certainly they would be bound to fork out the costs. I cannot believe either a lawyer or an accountant would pass this. I know from personal experience when a draft lease was prepared by "the other side" for me to sign, I got back the very clear advice from both land agent and accountant "You must not sign this document and if you do you will no longer be our client". And that was a hell of a lot less than £800k !

    I am talking about professional accountants, not Rachel from Accounts !
    Half the point of employing a professional is the insurance they bring to the table, Shirley?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Well, unsurprisingly that turned out to be really, really bad for Angela Rayner Kemi Badenoch

    I haven't seen what she did or didn't do. But tactically she must have been right not to go for this one at this stage. That would make it about Kemi not "our Ange". If she is still there next to our Keir next week then that is when Kemi should bring it up. Also I cannot believe our Ange's letter / explanation, did Intel Lady write it for her ? Did she really write that she wanted to do things proper ? Good Grief. Truly, not brainer with the real Angela Rayner !
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,086
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @TaliFraser

    Reactions from Tories:

    ‘There is no instinct and it always shows’

    ‘If only Rayner’s interview had been 4 weeks ago, Kemi would have had just enough time to prepare herself’

    What was Badenoch supposed to do? Starmer would have swatted away every question to roars of approval from the Labour benches.
    It's been bubbling away for several days. 6 questions on it is not a difficult ask, particularly if you link it to the freebies stuff, the upcoming budget etc.
    Lets suppose she had done as you suggest. PB would be all 'not a single question on the financial situation the state of the bond market. She just doesn't get it...'
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,233


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Angela Rayner may have been gagged from speaking out by a court order. But her friends, allies and colleagues weren't. Anyone who thinks this is politically survivable for her is living in on another planet.

    Doesn't follow. The gag can apply to other people too, for instance if it is certain types of personal info.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,137
    Well this will give Bibi pause for thought and tip the balance to peace.

    “ High street cosmetics firm Lush has shut down its website and closed all its UK stores in what the company says is a pro-Palestine statement of solidarity.

    The firm shared an image declaring 'Stop starving Gaza' as it also closed its factories in a one-day gesture.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15061429/Lush-closes-stores-shuts-website-protest-Palestin.html
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,045
    kinabalu said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Angela Rayner may have been gagged from speaking out by a court order. But her friends, allies and colleagues weren't. Anyone who thinks this is politically survivable for her is living in on another planet.

    Ah so she's safe.
    When was the last time he made a correct prediction?
  • I don't understand the surprise with Badenoch. We all know she isn't able to think on her feet. It should have been no surprise that she screwed this up.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,580
    On those frigates, one interesting point is the 100% offset. I wonder how BAE will achieve that wrt Norway? Clearly there's a lot of interesting accounting involved.

    There's also one in the works for Denmark / Sweden - maybe - for the other type of frigate.
    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/scottish-shipyard-may-build-frigates-for-sweden-and-denmark/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,479
    boulay said:

    Well this will give Bibi pause for thought and tip the balance to peace.

    “ High street cosmetics firm Lush has shut down its website and closed all its UK stores in what the company says is a pro-Palestine statement of solidarity.

    The firm shared an image declaring 'Stop starving Gaza' as it also closed its factories in a one-day gesture.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15061429/Lush-closes-stores-shuts-website-protest-Palestin.html

    Lush's wretched employment record proves that "The louder he talked of his honour, the faster we counted our spoons."
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,833
    boulay said:

    Well this will give Bibi pause for thought and tip the balance to peace.

    “ High street cosmetics firm Lush has shut down its website and closed all its UK stores in what the company says is a pro-Palestine statement of solidarity.

    The firm shared an image declaring 'Stop starving Gaza' as it also closed its factories in a one-day gesture.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15061429/Lush-closes-stores-shuts-website-protest-Palestin.html

    Christ on a bike
  • I don't understand the surprise with Badenoch. We all know she isn't able to think on her feet. It should have been no surprise that she screwed this up.

    Who the Jimminy is prepping her for this?

    Her job is to ask six questions that make the PM squirm. Surely ChatGPT can do that for her in seconds.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,544
    FPT. Sandpit said: Rather like the joke about the lightbulb, the Labour leadership needs to want to change.

    As we saw with Corbyn, the way the Labour Party is set up makes it pretty much impossible to depose a leader who doesn’t want to move on.

    Starmer seems happy enough in the job, he does whatever the lawyers and courts tell him to do, and doesn’t care much for public opinion. Perhaps it will take a major financial crisis to wake him up?
    ---
    As we know with Jeremy Corbyn, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, the Labour party rules make it incredible difficult for their Parliamentary party to ever remove a party leader until they want to go at a time of their choosing in Opposition or in Government. Starmer may seem happy enough in the job especially with the mandate that that huge majority delivered just over a year ago, but its now clear that the voters, his own backbenchers and even senior members of the Cabinet recognise that his first year as PM has been a complete disaster and he is totally disinengaged from both domestic and foreign politics and not across his brief as PM even within his own No10 team, the Cabinet and his backbenchers and seems happy to be led in which ever direction the wind blows from one week to the next.

    As a result it is now pretty clear that he not only doesn't care much for public opinion but seems totally oblivious to just how out of touch he is with the very cross party of voters who voted Labour at the 2024 GE to give the Conservatives a severe electoral punishment beating after 14 years in power. Looking back its not hard to spot the political flaws that explain why so many party leaders and PMs over the last 15 years would then turn out to be poor PMs despite their popularity among their party grassroots when elected, Brown, Corbyn, May, Johnson and Truss all ended up clearly unsuited to the role despite their clear and passionate political ambitions.

    And that is why Starmer's rise to power is so utterly incomprehensible because he literally has been the biggest political nonentity to become a major party leader and PM in my lifetime, he stood out during Corbyn's tenure for accepting and remaining a member of his Shadow Cabinet and being utterly usesless during the brexit chaos between 2017-2019. In the Labour leadership contest he was initially up against four women who were all better media performers and still the only male in a grey suit without a hint of charisma and who always looks like he is rabbit caught in headlights won. I cannot think of a party leader and PM more unsuited to lead us through any future financial or energy crisis in the next few years and I have bet accordingly.


  • Scott_xP said:

    @charlotteahenry

    How is Kemi Badenoch's job more in peril today than Angela Rayner's? How has she managed this? HOW?!

    LOL, its really not. But I think we all know she’s on borrowed time.
    Agreed. The moment of maximum peril for Rayner is this week. For Badenoch, it will be after the May 26 elections
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,479

    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    Yes, it’s perception rather than reality. A bit like the Starmer excuse that all the free stuff was within the rules, and how badly that landed.

    If she’s had bad advice then I sympathise, but then I go back to the fact that if I was in the public sphere and I had anything weird and wonderful in my tax affairs, I’d be saying to my advisors please a) err on the side of caution, if there’s an ambiguity b) can I check this with HMRC and get something from them confirming one way or the other - even if it’s not definitive, it’s a paper record that I tried.
    If any professional person, lawyer or accountant allowed her to do this then they are in deep shit themselves. Certainly they would be bound to fork out the costs. I cannot believe either a lawyer or an accountant would pass this. I know from personal experience when a draft lease was prepared by "the other side" for me to sign, I got back the very clear advice from both land agent and accountant "You must not sign this document and if you do you will no longer be our client". And that was a hell of a lot less than £800k !

    I am talking about professional accountants, not Rachel from Accounts !
    Stamp Duty Land Tax is a self-assessment tax. The forms do not have to be completed by professionals,
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,580

    I don't understand the surprise with Badenoch. We all know she isn't able to think on her feet. It should have been no surprise that she screwed this up.

    Who the Jimminy is prepping her for this?

    Her job is to ask six questions that make the PM squirm. Surely ChatGPT can do that for her in seconds.
    Jiminy Crickets ?

    (Gets coat.)
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,544
    Regardless of whether Angela Raynor weathers this scandal and remains Labour deputy leader and a Cabinet Minister or not in the short term, as I posted last night her biggest problem now will be hanging onto her seat at the next election having declared a home more than 250 miles from her constituency as her main residence. Her future Labour leadership ambitions are now toast along with possible her whole political career as an MP as a result.
  • nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


    There is always a tweet...
    Dave (pbuh) was right about Twitter, again.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,045
    There’s a very good chance Rayner would avoid a penalty from HMRC if she can prove that it was a genuine error .

    Her case is helped as it’s likely to be classed as an “ unprompted disclosure “.
  • I don't understand the surprise with Badenoch. We all know she isn't able to think on her feet. It should have been no surprise that she screwed this up.

    Who the Jimminy is prepping her for this?

    Her job is to ask six questions that make the PM squirm. Surely ChatGPT can do that for her in seconds.
    Isn't it obvious? Kemi Badenoch thinks Kemi Badenoch is amazing. She is preparing herself because she is amazing. This story has done the rounds for ages - she ignores her advisors.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Keir Starmer
    @Keir_Starmer

    I won't shy away from decisions to protect kids, even if there are the predictable cries of nanny state.

    We're stopping shops from selling high-caffeine energy drinks to under 16s, so they can turn up to school ready to learn."

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1963137900167774466

    What does he think is keeping the under16s awake and ready to learn now? Without Monster they'll be sleeping through school.
  • pm215 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Resigning seems overly harsh if the explanation she has given stands.

    Tax law is bloomin' complicated and she says she took legal advice which now seems to be wrong.

    I think the issue is that most people don't have these mad complicated tax affairs. PAYE, your solicitor deals with the rest. Trusts are for tax dodgers will be the instinct.

    Anyway, hopefully this will be the toxic catalyst for actually binning stamp duty once and for all. I live in faint hope that Reeves, with nothing to lose, will actually deliver a transformative budget in - checks calendar - November.
    Doesn’t everyone have to do a self assessment above £100k? As inflation continues more and more people will be doing them.
    That threshold went up to 150K a year or two ago, and I think has now been removed entirely from the "do you need to do self assessment" criteria.
    "You must send a tax return if, in the last tax year (6 April to 5 April), any of the following applied:

    you were self-employed as a ‘sole trader’ and earned more than £1,000 (before taking off anything you can claim tax relief on)
    you were a partner in a business partnership
    you had to pay Capital Gains Tax when you sold or ‘disposed of’ something that increased in value
    you had to pay the High Income Child Benefit Charge
    You may also need to send a tax return if you have any untaxed income, such as:

    money from renting out a property
    tips and commission
    income from savings, investments and dividends
    foreign income"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,842
    @SamCoatesSky

    Ed Conway asks the questions that matter. Like whether the claim by some economists about a 1970s style crisis is true.

    And, critically, then goes on to answer them. (TL:DR - it's unlikely) in this fascinating thread.

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1963214140090011960
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,158
    nico67 said:

    kinabalu said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Angela Rayner may have been gagged from speaking out by a court order. But her friends, allies and colleagues weren't. Anyone who thinks this is politically survivable for her is living in on another planet.

    Ah so she's safe.
    When was the last time he made a correct prediction?
    I can't recall one. He always gets it right afterwards though.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,137
    fitalass said:

    Regardless of whether Angela Raynor weathers this scandal and remains Labour deputy leader and a Cabinet Minister or not in the short term, as I posted last night her biggest problem now will be hanging onto her seat at the next election having declared a home more than 250 miles from her constituency as her main residence. Her future Labour leadership ambitions are now toast along with possible her whole political career as an MP as a result.

    Surely she was aware that her seat is a realistic target for reform and was looking for a seat near Hove, can’t see Peter Kyle giving it up, but maybe a safe Labour Sussex seat available. Otherwise a London seat so she can keep. London pad for work and Hove for jollies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,848
    OK yes, I've changed my mind

    This finishes her, certainly as a potential PM, possibly as a minister or even MP

    Did @kinabalu know about this yesterday?! Is that why he said "Rayner will not be PM"?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,669
    boulay said:

    fitalass said:

    Regardless of whether Angela Raynor weathers this scandal and remains Labour deputy leader and a Cabinet Minister or not in the short term, as I posted last night her biggest problem now will be hanging onto her seat at the next election having declared a home more than 250 miles from her constituency as her main residence. Her future Labour leadership ambitions are now toast along with possible her whole political career as an MP as a result.

    Surely she was aware that her seat is a realistic target for reform and was looking for a seat near Hove, can’t see Peter Kyle giving it up, but maybe a safe Labour Sussex seat available. Otherwise a London seat so she can keep. London pad for work and Hove for jollies.
    Brighton Peacehaven is probably the only other 'safe' option in Sussex
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,998
    boulay said:

    Well this will give Bibi pause for thought and tip the balance to peace.

    “ High street cosmetics firm Lush has shut down its website and closed all its UK stores in what the company says is a pro-Palestine statement of solidarity.

    The firm shared an image declaring 'Stop starving Gaza' as it also closed its factories in a one-day gesture.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15061429/Lush-closes-stores-shuts-website-protest-Palestin.html

    There must be a bit of a crossover between Lush lovers and Eurovision, the latter of which Bibi seems VERY concerned about.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,848

    nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


    Yeah, that stuff is fatal for her
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,158
    fitalass said:

    Regardless of whether Angela Raynor weathers this scandal and remains Labour deputy leader and a Cabinet Minister or not in the short term, as I posted last night her biggest problem now will be hanging onto her seat at the next election having declared a home more than 250 miles from her constituency as her main residence. Her future Labour leadership ambitions are now toast along with possible her whole political career as an MP as a result.

    I don't think she was in any case tracking to be the next PM. And if she survives this (which I hope she does) she still won't be.

    AIUI she declared the Hove flat as her only owned property not her main residence. They don't have to be the same.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,544
    fitalass said:

    Regardless of whether Angela Raynor weathers this scandal and remains Labour deputy leader and a Cabinet Minister or not in the short term, as I posted last night her biggest problem now will be hanging onto her seat at the next election having declared a home more than 250 miles from her constituency as her main residence. Her future Labour leadership ambitions are now toast along with possible her whole political career as an MP as a result.

    The interesting question will be if Keir Starmer has the balls to sack the Labour Deputy Leader if her position as a Cabinet Minister becomes untenable and she refuses to resign of her own accord?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,158
    Leon said:

    OK yes, I've changed my mind

    This finishes her, certainly as a potential PM, possibly as a minister or even MP

    Did @kinabalu know about this yesterday?! Is that why he said "Rayner will not be PM"?

    Can't say I did, no. I'm not in the circle of trust.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,317
    So what will the public think about Raynor is the question.
    But there isn't a homogenous "public".
    Those who support Raynor (like me and Keir) will sympathise.
    Those who oppose Raynor will cackle.
    In the round, and in the long run, it will make no difference.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,137
    Leon said:

    nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


    Yeah, that stuff is fatal for her
    It’s just so funny really after all the po-faced, holier than thou, “the adults are taking over” sanctimonious bollocks from Labour during the last Tory years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,848
    From the Guardian


    "She said in her statement: “Ashton remains my family home, as it has been for over a decade. It contains the majority of my possessions and it is where I am registered for most official and financial purposes ranging from credit cards to the dentist to the electoral roll. But most importantly, it is where my children live and have gone to school and now college, and where I regularly live while caring for them.”

    Rayner has another property she spends time in, too – a grace-and-favour apartment in Admiralty House on Whitehall. She neither owns this nor pays council tax on it.

    This is one reason some have accused her of hypocrisy. For almost everything, Rayner counts the Ashton home as her main property. For stamp duty reasons only, the Hove flat took precedence"


    It already looked dodgy af. Where did she get the money?! But now there is potential fraud, to add to the dodginess

    And she's housing minister

    This is surely not survivable
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,137
    Barnesian said:

    So what will the public think about Raynor is the question.
    But there isn't a homogenous "public".
    Those who support Raynor (like me and Keir) will sympathise.
    Those who oppose Raynor will cackle.
    In the round, and in the long run, it will make no difference.

    Surely those who support her know how to spell her surname?

    Nice poem though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,848
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


    Yeah, that stuff is fatal for her
    It’s just so funny really after all the po-faced, holier than thou, “the adults are taking over” sanctimonious bollocks from Labour during the last Tory years.
    And remember the exultant tweets when Starmer won


    "Isn't it nice, the quiet"

    Now every single fucking day is another deafening kerrang!! of metal on metal as the never ending car crash, that is the Starmer Labour govenment, continues to collide with reality
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,985
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    nico67 said:

    'Genuine mistake'
    Im sure thousands will be relieved that any issue uncovered by HMRC etc can be waved away with this defence.

    Generally, most errors in tax payment are dealt with as mistakes and you just pay what was owed (+ interest). Very few cases lead to any prosecution.
    HMRC has a system where penalties can be applied from 0-100% of the underpaid tax. Presumably, they have not yet assessed what to do in this case and may yet apply penalties. The penalty scheme goes...

    lack of reasonable care - the penalty will be between 0% and 30% of the extra tax due
    deliberate - the penalty will be between 20 and 70% of the extra tax due
    deliberate and concealed - the penalty will be between 30 and 100% of the extra tax due
    Doesn’t matter, this is politics, as I’ve said, perceptions matter more than the facts.

    All the public will see is she avoided £40,000, which is more than plenty of them earn.
    She decided to do the trust to help look after her son which any parent would do in these circumstances. Her mistake seems genuine and I hope she can stay on as Deputy PM.
    I have a trust for my kids, the thing is I don’t demonise tax avoiders.


    Yeah, that stuff is fatal for her
    It’s just so funny really after all the po-faced, holier than thou, “the adults are taking over” sanctimonious bollocks from Labour during the last Tory years.
    I think it is demonstrably true that only adults get into problems over unpaid taxes. Children don't.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,760
    edited September 3
    A lawyer on Sky said that the first line of attack is always to blame legal advice

    He said that it is not as simple as that and depends on the information the client gives the lawyer and if full disclosure of circumstances was revealed

    He said it is very unlikely she had the wrong advice from the lawyer if everything was disclosed

    I have no idea what happens next, but those rushing to Rayner's defence sound a bit desperate and I am sure there.will be polling on this

    Badenoch was poor but as much as some would like this story to be so it is not about Badenoch who may well face her own Waterloo next may but Rayner

    Whether she survives or not she is certainly damaged by this
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,669
    Leon said:

    From the Guardian

    And she's housing minister

    This is surely not survivable

    It isnt. Its a question of now much damage they self inflict accepting that
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