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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: April 3rd 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: April 3rd 2014
Blacko and Higherford on Pendle (Conservative defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 18, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 12, British National Party 2, Independents 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 7)
Result of ward at last election (2011): Conservative 583 (80%), Labour 148 (20%). Conservative HOLD with a majority of 435 (60%)
Candidates duly nominated:
0
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Lab 37%
Con 33%
UKIP 12%
LD 10%
Lab maj 44
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2
Cheers, Mr. Hayfield.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/03/nigel-farage-natural-tory-gadfly-cameron-fear-sting
"Nigel Farage – a natural Tory on course to drive the Tories from power
The Ukip leader is a gadfly who will one day go to ground. But before then it is Cameron, not Miliband, who has most to fear from his sting"
OGH won't back the LibDems at 1.7
Ladbrokes are1/2 LD 6/4 UKIP...
6/4 massive IMO
That 6/4 (or 2.5) is over a very long time frame though. More than a year from now. I'm wary of tipping/backing Mercedes to score a double podium at 8/11 with Ladbrokes, and that's in a few days.
Got to say, though, the more I think of the Silver Arrows bet the more it seems too long.
To be fair would only bet it on credit, hence offering to bet it under the odds. Think I backed it at 8/11 or 4/5 with Antifrank
Who did I back the 7/5 with? Two people on here took a tenner and I didn't make a note of it
He's the sort of person who would have sat on the backbenchs and sneered at Disraeli because of his father's religion*
*Edit: I would note this is purely a historical allusion to the strand of right wing tradition that he represents, nothing more
As of now, I'd predict UKIP to get about 13% and the Lib Dems 10% (though the Lib Dems would obviously still get more MPs than UKIP on such a result).
Stuff happens and the political class blatantly lie through their teeth and say it's not happening. This makes people who've seen it with their own eyes angry but it makes everyone who hasn't seen if for themselves unsure of who is telling the truth and in the end they find it too hard to believe the entire political class is lying. So for the political class there's a trade-off between making one group of people angrier versus keeping a second group unsure and confused.
When only 1% know the truth the political class' strategy of blatantly lying works perfectly as it's 1% angry and 99% content but when the numbers creep up to 5%, 10%, 15% the balance of probability changes i.e. what are the odds of all those people lying vs the odds of the political class lying?
There'll be a tipping point eventually where enough people know for a fact the political class have been lying through their teeth and the balance of angry vs unsure will flip over.
PB Hodges caught on camera discussing their polling crossover predictions:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lz9HDvg_mp0
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Really does look like normal polling service resumed. Interesting the UKIP and LD shares match exactly my prediction
LibLabCon filter candidates on the basis they don't mind.
But the LibDems will revive as Labour get discredited.
BTW Ripping Yarns on BBC4, Tompkinsons schooldays, should bring happy memories back to all the public school boys on here
Give me a break. I've noticed that Europhiles use three subsequent tactics against eurosceptics:
(1) Firstly, avoid the facts and speak in high level positive adjectives (terms like "clout", "openness", "modern" etc)
(2) If you get dragged into the debate, start claiming credit for the EU for stuff that would happen anyway (trade, jobs, extraditions, high skill migration etc)
(3) If you get called out on the lies, just impugn your opponent with a smear (racist, xenophobe, reactionary, fruitloop, little Englander etc)
If you support the EU, you should argue for the precise benefits of a political union that wouldn't exist with a free trade treaty, and say how they outweigh the drawbacks. All these other tactics are just pathetic.
Can't be many people who inadvertently claim 5K in expenses.
"Balls deep in trouble" or "Is Balls deep in trouble?"
Blocks of flats which have been part of Glasgow's skyline for almost 50 years will be blown up as part of the Commonwealth Games opening ceremony.
Five of the six remaining Red Road flats will be brought down in just 15 seconds in the biggest demolition of its kind ever seen in Europe.
The event will be shown live on a 100m (328ft) wide screen at the Celtic Park ceremony and to a huge TV audience.
The 30-storey structures were built in the mid 1960s.
The original eight tower blocks housed more than 4,000 people and were once the highest flats in Europe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-26857816
Oh sorry......err, I thought cornflakes in 1922 where more round than square........look squirrel!
'But crossover! Osborne's a genius! Ed's a disaster!'
Got to hand it to Ed, a 6 point lead for the only opposition party after 4 years of austerity is just amazing,what a leader.
Ed Miliband is considering returning rail franchises to public ownership, the Labour leader confirmed yesterday, in a move that could mark a further move to the Left by the party.
They'll do nothing.
But keep dreaming.
Asylum seekers, coming up, and not wanting to get blown up...
Times and Tele going big on Miller.
The Tory backwoodsmen sneered at Disraeli's religion not because they were anti-Semites (although many of them were) but because they couldn't find anything objective to criticise. They just were comfortable with what he represented: a modern, progressive Conservative who saw the necessity of reaching out to new groups of voters rather than holding out to the bitter end.
I really wish Maria Miller would resign or get sacked.
This is nothing to do with the fact I tipped and backed her at next out the cabinet at 14/1
The firm says quite specifically that in that eventuality the “dead heat” rules apply.
This means that if you’ve got, say, a £50 bet at evens that Jeremy Hunt will be out then your bet is split into the number of cabinet ministers leaving. In this case the firm would pay out one fifth of the bet. The rest of your stake would settled as a loser.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/07/27/re-shuffle-betting-remember-the-dead-heat-rules/
app = application
But I don't like Farage. I think he represents a very nasty strain of British political thought. To be clear, I don't think that every member of UKIP is remotely like this - libertarians like Richard Tyndall or p1ssed off Tories like Mr Llama or Sean_F clearly are not (and too many others on this blog to name are decent folk as well.) But Farage is a nasty and shallow man.
You still owe me an apology.
indeed the vast majority of franchises are in public ownership. French Public Ownership. Dutch Public Ownership. German Public Ownership. Thus proving the Tories point that public ownership doesn't work.
There are some very bizarre suits being issued in mobile world.
Some of the Apple v Samsung and Samsung v Apple cases are truly bizarre.
In some jurisdictions different laws applies, and Apple wins, and in others Samsung wins.
And don't even get me started on Apple v Google/Android.
'Trouble is it may be popular, at least according to the polls'
Only for voters that didn't experience British Rail.
Yet he throws the opportunity away and makes himself look soft on sleeze and for what ?
Fear of being accused of not having enough women in the cabinet - if that's such a big issue then he could have replaced Miller with another woman. Its not as if she's either impressive or important in any case.
You misunderstood my point: the stats you were posting were useless and misleading. I didn't check your maths, but i'm willing to accept it was correct.
The nearest equivalent - as antifrank very perceptively pointed out a long while ago - is Beppo's Five Star Movement. It's a rant against reality.
Give me a break. I've noticed that Europhiles use three subsequent tactics against eurosceptics:
(1) Firstly, avoid the facts and speak in high level positive adjectives (terms like "clout", "openness", "modern" etc)
(2) If you get dragged into the debate, start claiming credit for the EU for stuff that would happen anyway (trade, jobs, extraditions, high skill migration etc)
(3) If you get called out on the lies, just impugn your opponent with a smear (racist, xenophobe, reactionary, fruitloop, little Englander etc)
If you support the EU, you should argue for the precise benefits of a political union that wouldn't exist with a free trade treaty, and say how they outweigh the drawbacks. All these other tactics are just pathetic.
As an aside, I am very ambivalent about the EU. There are clear economic advantages, but it is finely valanced as to whether the political disadvantages outweigh these. And I certainly don't like the direction of travel. If Cameron can achieve a substantial renegotiation, that's great. If not, I'm going to have to think very carefully about how I vote. (A clearly defined vision of an alternative would help encourage me to vote to leave)
But I don't like Farage. I think he represents a very nasty strain of British political thought. To be clear, I don't think that every member of UKIP is remotely like this - libertarians like Richard Tyndall or p1ssed off Tories like Mr Llama or Sean_F clearly are not (and too many others on this blog to name are decent folk as well.) But Farage is a nasty and shallow man.
Have to say I disagree with that.
I'm a Kipper primarily because I want out of Europe and have done since I voted for the Referendum Party, the fact UKIP support bringing back grammar schools makes me even more inclined to vote for them.
However I don't support everything they stand for, but I disagree that Farage is a nasty and shallow man. He is not Griffin or Robinson, he is just a realist. If he is now coming across as more aggressive it's because the political establishment have finally realised he is a serious danger to their cosy monopoly. Some of his remarks are ill advised but he is not yet as media polished as the rest, though he is getting there.
I certainly would not consider him nasty just because he is a realist, and nor would I call a man who is taking on the whole political establishment shallow.
But he defends his ground well and is a first class communicator.
Con 370 UKIP 86 Lab 54 LD 34
Surely it was wiser for him to let Dave to take the rap for not letting Farage into the debates?
Nigel Farage should be excluded from TV election debates, says Ed Miliband
Labour leader calls for repeat of 2010 debates involving three main parties, saying: 'I am not that interested in Nigel Farage'
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/03/nigel-farage-tv-election-debates-ed-miliband?CMP=twt_gu
The Columnist Elects @ColumnistElects 11m
Blacko & Highford (Pendle BC) Result:
CON - 66.7% (-13.1)
UKIP - 15.5% (+15.5)
LAB - 11.7% (-8.5)
LDEM - 6.1% (+6.1)
You have been Maria Millered!
But I would say that the "damp rag" speech he us so proud of was childish, boorish, unconstructive, self-regarding and unpleasant. Not the sort of speech any one in public life should make, let alone be proud of.
http://www.channel4.com/news/coal-miners-george-osborne-thoresby-uk-coal-daw-mill
Thoresby mine's closure was announced today.
With Kellingley also going the same way that will leave only one pit left, Hatfield.
Will we see successive governments throwing in subsidies to make sure the last pit doesn't close on their watch ?
I would relish the irony of Hatfield closing during an EdM government as its in EdM's constituency.
Show me the election winning swing to Labour!
Show me a Lib Dem!
*** 'pouts ***
Indeed, it is David Cameron that goes around calling a party with the support of an eighth of the British public as being "extremist", "closet racist" etc. Farage wants to debate the issues, and Cameron hides away, before going on a soft morning show so he can insult him at a distance.
As I showed afterwards they came directly from the ONS website.
Now you're entitled to regard them as useless and arguably as misleading.
But they weren't inaccurate, they were accurate official ONS stats.
So you should withdraw that comment you made.
(Been on a train without any internet connections).
(1) EU membership
(2) EEA membership
(3) Bilateral trade deal
Three is better than two. Two is better than one. Thus two is an example of how to be better than one, without negating the fact that three would be best of all.
Ironically the debates centered on whether we should remain in the EU, but the forthcoming elections are for MEPs, who will have no say in this. Voting UKIP will not bring forward a referendum, merely put in place a few more UKIP MEPs to pick up their salaries and do as little as they can apart from insult the neighbours. All the other parties MEPs will engage in debates and try to influence European policy in one way or another. In short vote UKIP, vote trougher!
In 2015 UKIP can campaign to leave the EU by campaigning for Westminster seats, as the decision to either stay or leave the EU will rest with this parliament.
Scotland won its referendum chance by winning seats in Holyrood not seats in Westminster
You may be interested to learn that you have been a source of inspiration to me today.
Thanks to you I have discovered a way for a Labour government to afford all the promises which the Eds have been making.
Do you think the PB lefties will report back to base and return with an offer of money for this idea ?
I am happy to share the payment so will mark you down for 10%.
Better?
Clutching at straws here Charles, the ordinary bloke likes Farage
If we retain EEA membership - as Farage, when it is convenient to his argument, often suggests, by citing Norway as an example - then the position as regards immigration is IDENTICAL to the position we are currently in as EU members (and Switzerland, the other country he often cites, has also had to agree to exactly the same rules in order to get the trade agreement he praises).
In fact, for the life of me I can't see how anyone could advocate going to all the trouble of leaving the EU and then buying back in to almost everything, only with less influence, but that is a slightly separate point: my main point is that you can have a relationship like Norway's with the EU, or you can have control over borders, but you can't have both.
Farage is, in other words, and in plain English, lying.
Provided you offer your (my?) idea at a discount of 30% to market value the lefties will bite your hand off to buy it.
To be clear: this is a similar strategy to many politicians. But it's still pandering.
I know someone who rates him highly from his pre-political days.