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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s performance last night makes it much harder to kee

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,946
    A solution to the in/out, metropolitan elite versus the rest debate.

    Let's simply let London become an independent country. It could then remain part of the EU, etc.

    The rest of the country could get a new, sensible, capital in York, and could secede from the EU.

    Wouldn't this be the simplest and happiest solution for all? Alanbrooke would no longer have to worry about the economy being run for the City. People in East Anglia and the West Country would no longer have to be part of the hated EU.

    Yet, the big services, law, finance and technology companies that rely so much on the pan-European labour markets would be largely unaffected.

    What's not to like?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Nigella banned from entering USA as she admitted taking cocaine.

    The response from the Daily Mash is fantastic.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Rod Liddle in the Spectator:

    "The major parties don't get UKIP, and neither does the BBC"

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/rod-liddle/2014/04/the-major-parties-dont-get-ukip-and-neither-does-the-bbc/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,946
    Anorak said:

    Nigella banned from entering USA as she admitted taking cocaine.

    The response from the Daily Mash is fantastic.

    I saw that: genuinely awesome.
  • antifrank said:

    Not at all. I'm a cosmopolitan. I'd happily see a federation with New York, Paris, Hong Kong and Singapore.
    What about Dubai, or is that too full of Russian whores and hot money to count?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,187


    Scotland is the most beautiful place I have ever been to. Glencoe when the clouds hang low and there is rain in the air, the blue of the sea around the Western isles on a warm, sunny day, the Borders in early autumn when the moors turn a thousand shades of green into brown ... all truly wonderful and treasured parts of the country I call home. It is a shame that soon they will become a foreign land.

    Agree about Scotland being the most beautiful of places. Go to Mull. Take the B8035, where it runs beneath Ben More and looks out towards Inch Kenneth and beyond to the Treshnish Islands. There is a point there where it has the most breath-taking views for a full 360 degrees. I have never found that anywhere else on earth. And I have visited much of it.

    The north coast road between Cape Wrath and John O'Groats is pretty damned fine too.

    But perhaps part of its beauty is that Scotland has always felt a foreign land to me as an Englishman. Enforced by the wife always giving a "Yee - yish!" cry as we go over the border into her home country.

    (Oh, and just seen my first swallow of the year whilst I was typing this. Another thing that makes my heart sing!)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The problem with cosmopolitanism is that only a few can afford to properly enjoy it.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    What's not to like?

    Immigration controls at the M25 for a start, because the rest of England would be intent on restricting immigration from the EU. The thought of being run by a northern clique does not inspire hope for those who are obliged to live or work outside of London in the south.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    @isam - I think it depends what you mean by smaller state. Significantly reducing government income to fund raising the tax threshold to £13,000 a year for full-time work is a very big deal and is going to require a fair bit of costing in advance if it is not to be ripped to shreds.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "... enormity of the reverse ferret ..."

    I do like the expression "reverse ferret", but I have no idea what it means and I only ever see it on this site. Would someone explain it for me, please?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Not too good for Maria Miller:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26865695
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Blackburn Labour ection vote tally

    Kate Hollern 199 votes
    Sara Ibrahim 53
    Naheed Arshad- Mather 44
    Ann Courtney 39

    25 postal votes disallowed


    360 people take part in a constituency with about 75,000 voters.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014

    Mick that is why it is best for Cameron to take the lead on the Europe debate in a head to head with Farage. Of course that requires Cameron to do real work on what changes he will be asking the EC to make. Which is where things may come unstuck due to his europhiles at the Foreign Office!
    Hague? His Eurosceptic credentials have certainly taken a beating of late. Though I suspect you mean the more establishment leanings of the FO/civil service. You're not alone to think so as I seem to recall the process of 'renegotiating' getting some very harsh words from tory MPs due to what the FO produced in documents as part of their 'vision'. I take your point though. If he was fighting from a position of strength with something meaningful of substance to throw his MPs then they would in all likelyhood fall in line with just a few BOOers holding out. They will take quite some convincing however since have been made to look like gullible fools far too many times before for it to be mere posturing and new form of words.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Agree about Scotland being the most beautiful of places. Go to Mull. Take the B8035, where it runs beneath Ben More and looks out towards Inch Kenneth and beyond to the Treshnish Islands. There is a point there where it has the most breath-taking views for a full 360 degrees. I have never found that anywhere else on earth. And I have visited much of it.

    The north coast road between Cape Wrath and John O'Groats is pretty damned fine too.

    But perhaps part of its beauty is that Scotland has always felt a foreign land to me as an Englishman. Enforced by the wife always giving a "Yee - yish!" cry as we go over the border into her home country.

    (Oh, and just seen my first swallow of the year whilst I was typing this. Another thing that makes my heart sing!)
    There are some stunningly atmospheric shots of Scotland in the new Jonathan Glazer film "Under The Skin".
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @HurstLlama

    Possibly something to do with a ferrets ability to do a "U" turn in an a amazingly small tunnel?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    360 people take part in a constituency with about 75,000 voters.
    That's not so bad - implies a membership in the many hundreds as opposed to the Tories not even having 100 in constituencies you would have thought would be reasonable targets (eg Morley and Outwood).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    What about Dubai, or is that too full of Russian whores and hot money to count?

    You're selling it to me...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,309
    DavidL said:

    Glencoe as you describe it is my favourite place on earth. Snow on the surrounding mountains adds to it as well.

    DavidL said:

    Glencoe as you describe it is my favourite place on earth. Snow on the surrounding mountains adds to it as well.

    I'd find it hard to select what I consider the most beautiful place on earth. The Bavarian Alps, Dalmatian Coastline, Mull, South Hams Coastline, Wensleydale, Amalfi coast would all have to be up there, I think.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    Funnily enough, these PISA tests do not seem to have been given much coverage. Can't think why ...

    England's teenagers are "significantly above average" in problem-solving skills, according to the results of international tests.
    After many disappointments in international school tests, these latest global rankings from the OECD put England in 11th place.
    The OECD puts England as second highest in Europe, behind Finland, in tests of how pupils can apply their knowledge.
    Singapore and South Korea were top in tests taken by 15-year-olds.
    These problem-solving tests were taken at the same time as the Pisa tests, which compare how well pupils perform in maths, reading and science.
    Rather than testing theoretical knowledge, the problem-solving tests examined how well teenagers could use their knowledge in practical questions.
    For example, it presented pupils with a range of information about different types of train tickets and asked them to work out the cheapest price for a journey.
    These problem-solving tests were an optional extra following the Pisa tests taken in 2012 - and were taken by 44 out of the 65 countries and administrations in the Pisa rankings.
    About 85,000 pupils took these tests, as a sample representing 19 million 15-year-olds. In England, the sample was based on 137 schools.
    It found that pupils in England were much better than their performance in Pisa tests, where they failed to make the top 20 in any subject.
    The OECD's Michael Davidson suggested that Asian countries were particularly strong at learning information, but it seemed that pupils in England were above average at how this information was creatively applied.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-26823184
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,946
    UK government spending is £729bn/year

    Of this, the biggest component is pensions, which accounts for £150bn.
    The next largest is the NHS at £133bn.
    Then social security at £113bn
    Education is £88bn
    Interest on debt is £52bn
    Defence £43bn
    State protection and police £31bn
    Transport £20bn
    The cost of central government is £14bn
    And the remainder (mostly other government services) is about £85bn

    Over the next five years, there will be upward pressure relative to GDP (irrespective of who is in government) on:

    Pensions, because more people will be over 65.
    NHS, ditto and largely because an ageing population puts natural pressure on health spending.
    Interest, because we're running a large deficit

    Leaving the EU would save around £20bn gross, and probably £10bn net (technically it would be £7bn net, but I'm assuming that we'd be a lot more efficient at spending the money than the EU would be.) However, we would probably - like Norway does - have to pay to be a member of the EEA. Norway pays €340m for 5m people; so would expect to 12x that, or €4bn/year. Total savings would therefore be in the region of £17bn gross, or £4-7bn net.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Immigration controls at the M25 for a start, because the rest of England would be intent on restricting immigration from the EU. The thought of being run by a northern clique does not inspire hope for those who are obliged to live or work outside of London in the south.
    Easy solution, Winchester in Hampshire was the former capital city of England, we could have York for the North and Winchester for the south - they could alternate like Brussels and Strasbourg..!

    see what I did there : )
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,309
    DavidL said:

    Despite tax increases of various kinds, the tax take as a share of GDP has remained at 37% since 2010. That implies that 37% is as good as it gets for the government.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,946

    Immigration controls at the M25 for a start, because the rest of England would be intent on restricting immigration from the EU. The thought of being run by a northern clique does not inspire hope for those who are obliged to live or work outside of London in the south.
    That's easy: we could go for the Schlieslig-Holstein solution. Essentially, individual constituencies as we move away from London could vote on whether to be part of London or rUK. If you are contiguous with Greater London you can vote. Therefore, Greater (greater) London will probably reach Reading in the West, but maybe not even as far as the M25 in the East.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sorry to hear that Nigella has been refused passage to America. Does the US bar people from travelling there if they've admitted to cannabis use? If so, can they fly to Colorado?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,615
    Sean_F said:

    I'd find it hard to select what I consider the most beautiful place on earth. The Bavarian Alps, Dalmatian Coastline, Mull, South Hams Coastline, Wensleydale, Amalfi coast would all have to be up there, I think.

    Canadian Rockies.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,946

    Immigration controls at the M25 for a start, because the rest of England would be intent on restricting immigration from the EU. The thought of being run by a northern clique does not inspire hope for those who are obliged to live or work outside of London in the south.
    Switzerland is not part of the EU and has far fewer people than the inner-M25 area. Plenty of people commute from France to Switzerland to work without any problems. (Of course, Switzerland, despite not being part of the EU, is part of Schengen. I can't see rUK wanting similar.)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,309
    Neil said:

    That's not so bad - implies a membership in the many hundreds as opposed to the Tories not even having 100 in constituencies you would have thought would be reasonable targets (eg Morley and Outwood).
    It's hard to believe when I joined the Conservative Party that there were associations with 5,000 members.

    I think you'd be hard-pressed to find any association with 1,000 members now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    @isam - I think it depends what you mean by smaller state. Significantly reducing government income to fund raising the tax threshold to £13,000 a year for full-time work is a very big deal and is going to require a fair bit of costing in advance if it is not to be ripped to shreds.

    Its all hypothetical of course, but the direction of travel is more important for UKIP than the specifics. They aren't going to be part of the next government.

    I would think they would be totally different to any of the last three governing parties, but that why I am a UKIP member
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,038

    Funnily enough, these PISA tests do not seem to have been given much coverage. Can't think why ...

    England's teenagers are "significantly above average" in problem-solving skills, according to the results of international tests.
    After many disappointments in international school tests, these latest global rankings from the OECD put England in 11th place.
    The OECD puts England as second highest in Europe, behind Finland, in tests of how pupils can apply their knowledge.
    Singapore and South Korea were top in tests taken by 15-year-olds.
    These problem-solving tests were taken at the same time as the Pisa tests, which compare how well pupils perform in maths, reading and science.
    Rather than testing theoretical knowledge, the problem-solving tests examined how well teenagers could use their knowledge in practical questions.
    For example, it presented pupils with a range of information about different types of train tickets and asked them to work out the cheapest price for a journey.
    These problem-solving tests were an optional extra following the Pisa tests taken in 2012 - and were taken by 44 out of the 65 countries and administrations in the Pisa rankings.
    About 85,000 pupils took these tests, as a sample representing 19 million 15-year-olds. In England, the sample was based on 137 schools.
    It found that pupils in England were much better than their performance in Pisa tests, where they failed to make the top 20 in any subject.
    The OECD's Michael Davidson suggested that Asian countries were particularly strong at learning information, but it seemed that pupils in England were above average at how this information was creatively applied.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-26823184

    These are promising figures. It would be interesting to try to think why we perform reasonably well at it: is it that we are less regimented than many countries? Could it also partly explain why we punch above our weight in the sciences and engineering?

    However, it does not compensate for our dire performance at maths, reading and science. These are more important: it's pointless being able to apply knowledge if you don't have the basic skills needed to get or understand that knowledge.

    A real "Look, squirrel!" moment from you.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I regret to say that OGH is completely wrong on this matter.

    As OFCOM notes Ukip is treated as a major party for the purposes of the European elections on account of their previous support and Farage and Clegg debates fall within that remit. The results of the debates are irrelevant to Ukips non appearance in general election debates for which OFCOM correctly rules Ukip as a minor party.

    As for the general election debates should any single one of the OFCOM big three attempt to threaten to boycott the debates then the media should make it abundantly clear that such a boycott will be resisted and that leader will be empty chaired.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "In the 48 most marginal seats they are defending, Conservative campaign headquarters is paying for a steady stream of leaflets touting the local MP’s achievements.

    The aim is to establish the MP so strongly that he can outperform the national campaign. And the early signs are that it’s working. Tory MPs in these seats are considerably more confident about their own prospects than they were a year ago."

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9176281/the-game-is-changing-whitehall-must-change-too/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    Rod Liddle in the Spectator:

    "The major parties don't get UKIP, and neither does the BBC"

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/rod-liddle/2014/04/the-major-parties-dont-get-ukip-and-neither-does-the-bbc/

    "So, in the second debate between Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg the UKIP leader won by 69% to 31%, according to the post-debate polls. That, you would think, should be the top line of the story, but it was not the way in which the BBC News reported events. The corporation’s “package” of the debate showed Nick Clegg winning four-nil and the spoken introduction, at the top of the programme, simply stated that the debate had taken place"

    Quite extraordinary as David Coleman might say
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2014

    These are promising figures. It would be interesting to try to think why we perform reasonably well at it: is it that we are less regimented than many countries? Could it also partly explain why we punch above our weight in the sciences and engineering?

    However, it does not compensate for our dire performance at maths, reading and science. These are more important: it's pointless being able to apply knowledge if you don't have the basic skills needed to get or understand that knowledge.

    A real "Look, squirrel!" moment from you.
    Tangentially related. Article on cutting-edge industries in South Yorkshire.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26853720

    Includes the rather disappointing line: "Much of the work is too highly technical readily to be explained to non-engineers." I call bullshit, what he meant was "Much of the work is too highly technical readily to be explained to a moronic journalist."
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    I think you're mistaken about Ed but right that the next Parliament will not be fun. More to the point, it's the message that candidates are getting loud and clear - do not hint at unauthorised promises that cost money. The Labour government that I expect will be notably careful fiscally, to the disappointment for different reasons of some on both left and right, though the balance of impact will shift.
    The coalition has been promising us tax cuts in the budget. Of course they may get money from quieter tax rises elsewhere. I expect Labour to deal with the public deficit a little more slowly, have a few more tax rises and fewer spending cuts than the coalition proposes. A big issue is what the Lib Dems will propose at the next election. Are they going to parrot the coalition fiscal plans? Anyway money will be tight and Labour's focus should be on fundamental economic reform. As it should have been in 1997.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,355
    Good morning, everyone.

    Another computer issue, but seems to have resolved itself after a restart, so if I disappear then it's probably recurred.

    F1: US F1 team seems a little likelier:
    http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/9246067/bernie-ecclestone-says-entry-of-new-american-team-in-f1-is-on-track
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @HurstLlama

    Possibly something to do with a ferrets ability to do a "U" turn in an a amazingly small tunnel?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_ferret

    Less interesting that that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,048
    Don't want to sound mean but hopefully she will be sacked.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Agree about Scotland being the most beautiful of places. Go to Mull. Take the B8035, where it runs beneath Ben More and looks out towards Inch Kenneth and beyond to the Treshnish Islands. There is a point there where it has the most breath-taking views for a full 360 degrees. I have never found that anywhere else on earth. And I have visited much of it.

    The north coast road between Cape Wrath and John O'Groats is pretty damned fine too.

    But perhaps part of its beauty is that Scotland has always felt a foreign land to me as an Englishman. Enforced by the wife always giving a "Yee - yish!" cry as we go over the border into her home country.

    (Oh, and just seen my first swallow of the year whilst I was typing this. Another thing that makes my heart sing!)
    I thoroughly endorse your remarks on Mull.

    It is a breathtakingly wonderous island with a vast richness of natural beauty and wildlife and most worthy of an extended stay.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    These are promising figures. It would be interesting to try to think why we perform reasonably well at it: is it that we are less regimented than many countries? Could it also partly explain why we punch above our weight in the sciences and engineering?

    However, it does not compensate for our dire performance at maths, reading and science. These are more important: it's pointless being able to apply knowledge if you don't have the basic skills needed to get or understand that knowledge.

    A real "Look, squirrel!" moment from you.

    Not at all. What these figures show is that there are clearly real strengths in our system and that identifying and working on these is likely to reap significant rewards. It also demonstrates that we have very good teachers. The other side of your argument, of course, is that there's no point in having the knowledge if you are unable to apply it. The trick is finding the balance.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Charles & Smarmeron

    Thanks.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The Daily Politics editing of the debate is far, far more credible than the BBC news stitch up
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2014
    Maria Miller up now.

    Short and .... well, just short actually.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,048
    rcs1000 said:

    UK government spending is £729bn/year

    Of this, the biggest component is pensions, which accounts for £150bn.
    The next largest is the NHS at £133bn.
    Then social security at £113bn
    Education is £88bn
    Interest on debt is £52bn
    Defence £43bn
    State protection and police £31bn
    Transport £20bn
    The cost of central government is £14bn
    And the remainder (mostly other government services) is about £85bn

    Over the next five years, there will be upward pressure relative to GDP (irrespective of who is in government) on:

    Pensions, because more people will be over 65.
    NHS, ditto and largely because an ageing population puts natural pressure on health spending.
    Interest, because we're running a large deficit

    Leaving the EU would save around £20bn gross, and probably £10bn net (technically it would be £7bn net, but I'm assuming that we'd be a lot more efficient at spending the money than the EU would be.) However, we would probably - like Norway does - have to pay to be a member of the EEA. Norway pays €340m for 5m people; so would expect to 12x that, or €4bn/year. Total savings would therefore be in the region of £17bn gross, or £4-7bn net.

    When the cold hard facts are examined its clear that it is the oldies that break the Gov'ts books.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    "In the 48 most marginal seats they are defending, Conservative campaign headquarters is paying for a steady stream of leaflets touting the local MP’s achievements.

    The aim is to establish the MP so strongly that he can outperform the national campaign. And the early signs are that it’s working. Tory MPs in these seats are considerably more confident about their own prospects than they were a year ago."

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9176281/the-game-is-changing-whitehall-must-change-too/

    Not surprising considering the average Labour lead is down to 3%, which would represent a swing of 5% since 2010.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sean_F said:

    It's hard to believe when I joined the Conservative Party that there were associations with 5,000 members.

    I think you'd be hard-pressed to find any association with 1,000 members now.
    Thirsk & Malton Tories have about 540 members which must be one of the highest.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Owen Patterson announcing badger TB vaccination buffer zones close to TB infected hot spots.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    That's easy: we could go for the Schlieslig-Holstein solution. Essentially, individual constituencies as we move away from London could vote on whether to be part of London or rUK. If you are contiguous with Greater London you can vote. Therefore, Greater (greater) London will probably reach Reading in the West, but maybe not even as far as the M25 in the East.
    You'd be mad to go for the Schleswig-Holstein solution. It's a dead cert to cause chaos. Have you forgotten the last time?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,659
    Anorak said:


    I grew up in the lake district, in a rural and very blue area (maybe with a hint of yellow). The town had no Labour Club I can recall, but the Con Club was very popular.

    Most of the 6th form at school joined (that's the final year of A-levels, kiddiwinks). They had cheap beer and a decent pool table, which may or may not have been related to that trend...

    The price is the depoliticisation of the Conservative Clubs. For instance I was the guest speaker in one of our local "Conservative" clubs a few years ago when still the local Labour MP: nobody seemed to think it odd. But nearly all the clubs, Tory, Labour and others, are struggling.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,038

    Not at all. What these figures show is that there are clearly real strengths in our system and that identifying and working on these is likely to reap significant rewards. It also demonstrates that we have very good teachers. The other side of your argument, of course, is that there's no point in having the knowledge if you are unable to apply it. The trick is finding the balance.
    It does not demonstrate (or prove) that we have very good teachers; if they were 'very good' then the children would be getting better PISA results in maths, reading and science.

    The ability to apply knowledge is important and it is good that our kids do fairly well, but the base knowledge needs to be there to a high level so that it can be applied.

    As I said, it's good news. But it is utterly dwarfed by the other PISA results.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    PB'ers who might want to bet in bitcoins are advised to take advantage of the recently released Advanced Bitcoin Simulator.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Charles said:

    You'd be mad to go for the Schleswig-Holstein solution. It's a dead cert to cause chaos. Have you forgotten the last time?
    Mr. Charles, are you able to explain to us what happened the first time? I thought only three people understood it, the Prince Consort who died before he could explain it, a German professor who went mad thinking about it and the third was Palmerston who forgot about it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,355
    Mr. Llama, if that's true then Mr. Charles is either an insane German professor or Lord Palmerstone.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    It does not demonstrate (or prove) that we have very good teachers; if they were 'very good' then the children would be getting better PISA results in maths, reading and science.

    The ability to apply knowledge is important and it is good that our kids do fairly well, but the base knowledge needs to be there to a high level so that it can be applied.

    As I said, it's good news. But it is utterly dwarfed by the other PISA results.

    Teachers teach what they are told to teach.

    In the other PISA tests we are average. In these we are above average. Combine that with the fact that our state schools outperform our private schools once social background is factored in and it looks like our qualified teachers are providing significant value added. Get the curriculum fixed and we could be in clover.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Pulpstar said:

    When the cold hard facts are examined its clear that it is the oldies that break the Gov'ts books.
    A situation that was not only predictable, not only predicted but was also the subject of a comedy (see The Smoke Screen episode of Yes Prime Minister). Ministers never seem to be able to plan for the long term effects of their policies.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Oh dear - Ed is not Laffering now..

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2595611/Cut-tax-rate-sees-revenue-climb-9billion-Amount-paid-wealthiest-soared-50p-rate-reduced.html

    "The amount of tax paid by the best-off has soared since George Osborne slashed the top rate of tax from 50p to 45p, according to a new analysis.

    New figures from HM Revenue & Customs show the total income tax collected on earnings over £150,000 has shot up from £40 billion last year to £49 billion this year."

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Charles, are you able to explain to us what happened the first time? I thought only three people understood it, the Prince Consort who died before he could explain it, a German professor who went mad thinking about it and the third was Palmerston who forgot about it.
    It's been so many years that I've forgotten the answer ;-)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,038

    Teachers teach what they are told to teach.

    In the other PISA tests we are average. In these we are above average. Combine that with the fact that our state schools outperform our private schools once social background is factored in and it looks like our qualified teachers are providing significant value added. Get the curriculum fixed and we could be in clover.

    "Private schools". Ah yes, I was waiting for you to mention that crutch of Labour's failed education policy. As I said before, "Look, Squirrel!"

    I'm glad that you think 'average' is good enough; that our kids deserve to be 'average'; that being average is a sign of 'very good teachers'. That being above average (and still far from the best) in a less important metric somehow compensates for the fact that illiteracy and innumeracy barely changed throughout Labour's time in power.

    I also note you neglect to mention rampant grade inflation, which was another of Labour's crutches that has been firmly knocked away.

    Labour let our kids down for thirteen years. Let's hope Gove has the right answers, because if your complacency is anything to go by, Labour doesn't.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    Ha Ha Ha , just about the level you would expect from a unionist. Bring on the organ grinder , the monkey is no substitute. Get Dave out from behind the sofa.
    Farage could have taken that attitude but he took on Clegg and is reaping a big win.

    He who dares wins - and Eck isn't daring - not like Nigel.



  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Maria Miller from the Telegraph, "The Prime Minister thinks that is absolutely the right one. What actually was happening is that he was offering her his full, strong, very warm support.""

    Also from the Telegraph, "If a benefits claimant were guilty of Maria Miller's 'mistake' she'd be facing prosecution"

    It is hard to believe that Cameron feels she can stay on and such an attitude reflects badly on him and his party.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    @Josias - I'd be interested in a link to any post where I have stated average is good enough.

    Obviously you just want to believe Labour did nothing but harm to the education system. I am afraid that we'll just have to disagree. Just as we'll have to disagree about knowing facts being more important than applying knowledge. I'm with Michael Gove when he says we have the best teachers we have ever had. They did not appear out of thin air. Do we disagree about that too?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    It's difficult to argue with that. Cameron should want to get Farage in the debates. It will give him a great pitch on Europe for those who care about it deeply and it will provide an opportunity to examine the other parts of the UKIP manifesto in more detail. If Dave has anything about him, he would welcome the chance to get it on.

    Cameron's problem is that nearly all the populist Tory lines that they'll want to use against Labour take the form, "X is terrible, the Conservatives would do marginally less of X than Labour". This is a pretty good approach in a two-party contest, but it doesn't hold up well if you have somebody else on the stage saying, "We should stop doing X".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,038

    @Josias - I'd be interested in a link to any post where I have stated average is good enough.

    From your previous comment:

    "In the other PISA tests we are average. In these we are above average. Combine that with the fact that our state schools outperform our private schools once social background is factored in and it looks like our qualified teachers are providing significant value added"

    That comment exhibits a staggering lack of ambition and sheer complacency. Now, if you are willing to say that the above is not 'good enough', and that we should have been doing much, much better, then I think we'll agree.

    As for Gove's comment: I've got no idea. It's been over 20 years since I was in education, and 25 since I was in state education. All I know is that the current results are dire, particularly at the lower end of attainment. Undoubtedly some are the 'best teachers we have ever had'. Others undoubtedly are not. And that gets us onto all the other issues relating to teacher competencies which we have discussed before.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    I suspect that (like this debate) the debates will happen much earlier in the campaign.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,038
    Off-topic:

    I know I'm a bit of a clown, but this isn't me, honest:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-26838320
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @NickPalmer

    Whilst you're in the vicinity what's your view on the badger cull and the bovine TB problem ?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    For Labour record on education see Wales.

    First World funding. Third World performance. A pile of excuses. No change soon.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    "In the other PISA tests we are average

    As opposed to funding levels which are way above average, and went off the chart under labour.

    And that's the charge labour has to answer. The more they ploughed in, the more average we got. The numbers reveal who labour really favour in the system. The monopoly provider.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    From your previous comment:

    "In the other PISA tests we are average. In these we are above average. Combine that with the fact that our state schools outperform our private schools once social background is factored in and it looks like our qualified teachers are providing significant value added"

    That comment exhibits a staggering lack of ambition and sheer complacency. Now, if you are willing to say that the above is not 'good enough', and that we should have been doing much, much better, then I think we'll agree.

    As for Gove's comment: I've got no idea. It's been over 20 years since I was in education, and 25 since I was in state education. All I know is that the current results are dire, particularly at the lower end of attainment. Undoubtedly some are the 'best teachers we have ever had'. Others undoubtedly are not. And that gets us onto all the other issues relating to teacher competencies which we have discussed before.

    Can you explain how that quote shows I believe average is good enough. Just because you want me to think that does not mean that I do. My point is that in teaching the curriculum they have been told to teach our state school teachers have been providing significant value added by turning out kids able to significantly out-perform pupils from other countries who on basic knowledge are judged to be far superior. Give such teachers the right curriculum, let them get on with it and the results would be very good indeed.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Maria Miller from the Telegraph, "The Prime Minister thinks that is absolutely the right one. What actually was happening is that he was offering her his full, strong, very warm support.""

    Also from the Telegraph, "If a benefits claimant were guilty of Maria Miller's 'mistake' she'd be facing prosecution"

    It is hard to believe that Cameron feels she can stay on and such an attitude reflects badly on him and his party.

    Agreed. Just a momentary reflection on the history of troughing and its consequences should tell him that she's a gonna, and the choice facing him is whether to get rid of her now, or to allow the press and the opposition to really go to town on her. I am surprised that he appears to have chosen the second option.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:
    SNP voters? 27. (page 9)

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,333

    Agreed. Just a momentary reflection on the history of troughing and its consequences should tell him that she's a gonna, and the choice facing him is whether to get rid of her now, or to allow the press and the opposition to really go to town on her. I am surprised that he appears to have chosen the second option.
    Hardly a surprise from the Dunce of Downing Street!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    taffys said:

    "In the other PISA tests we are average

    As opposed to funding levels which are way above average, and went off the chart under labour.

    And that's the charge labour has to answer. The more they ploughed in, the more average we got. The numbers reveal who labour really favour in the system. The monopoly provider.

    I agree that Labour thought money alone was a solution. From where I sit the provider is not the problem, it's the curriculums they have been told to teach. As Michael Gove says, we have the best teachers we have ever had.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Hardly a surprise from the Dunce of Downing Street!
    LOL. Perhaps she thought she could claim her mortgage at 'mates rates'!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Arif Ansari of BBC North West reports that Joe Benton (Bootle) has lost the trigger ballot in the majority of ward branches.
    No mention of if the affiliates have already cast their vote.

    The "trigger ballot" process is the standard reselection process for sitting Labour MPs. The MP should get the nomination from at least 50.1% of the CLP branches to be reselected. At this stage he's not up against anybody else...it's a simple "yes/no" to reselect the sitting MP.

    If he doesn't get the support of majority of branches, the selection is opened to other contenders (and can't be an AWS).

    Benton is about 800 years old


  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,973

    Will Salmoan threaten 'consequences'?
    YAWN
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,973
    TGOHF said:

    Farage could have taken that attitude but he took on Clegg and is reaping a big win.

    He who dares wins - and Eck isn't daring - not like Nigel.



    Difference is Farage is the outsider with no government position so needs anything to get on the stage. Salmond is the First Minister why would he want to debate with an obscure failed labour back bencher.
    Totally different position , he will wait till Cameron is shown to be a complete fake and coward and in the end wipe the floor with Cameron's monkey.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506


    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch
    50% would vote to leave EU, 39% would vote to stay, almost the same as the last time we asked that on March 11th


    So the EU debates and its reporting made no difference to people's views unless an equal number switched sides. It is very hard to change people's views, which makes UKIP's progress all the more unusual.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,038

    Can you explain how that quote shows I believe average is good enough. Just because you want me to think that does not mean that I do. My point is that in teaching the curriculum they have been told to teach our state school teachers have been providing significant value added by turning out kids able to significantly out-perform pupils from other countries who on basic knowledge are judged to be far superior. Give such teachers the right curriculum, let them get on with it and the results would be very good indeed.
    Sorry about the delay in my reply; I was busy.

    Everything you have written about these PISA results has been soaked in complacency and excuse-making. If you are willing to say that the average PISA results are not 'good enough', and that we should have been doing much, much better, then I think we'll agree.

    So go on, say it.

    As for teachers needing the right curriculum; you may be right. On the other hand the illness at the heart of education appears to strike deep:
    https://fullfact.org/factchecks/teachers_dismissed_incompetence_Sun-14365

    The idea that so few teachers have been struck off for professional incompetence rings alarm bells for a number of reasons. True, most cases of incompetence may never have got to the national body, but when you add in the restrictive practices for monitoring and observation that until recently were in place then those alarm bells ring louder.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,434
    Stuart Dickson The SNP only stands candidates in Scotland, so cannot take part in a debate for a UK wide general election. UKIP and the Greens run candidates across the UK. If Scotland rejects independence a regional debate could take place in Scotland and Wales, and in Northern Ireland with the NI Parties
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    If Nick Clegg can't defend our membership of the EU who can?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    If Nick Clegg can't defend our membership of the EU who can?
This discussion has been closed.