@philiph - "as we hear on here lot of UKIP economic messaging is leaning left. Nigel would express it with more passion, conviction and in a way that people understand far better than Ed. Labour voters went more Nigel than Nick last night, according to polls, that result could happen again. Yes, Ed would love to have Nigel in."
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
One thought occurs to me: Clegg shooting himself in the foot with Farage is likely to do LibDem polling no good at all - and this is bad news for Dave who needs lefties to vote for the yellows rather than the reds.
After his recent experience, how do you think Nick feels about including Nigel? He has just had a complete pasting, is knocked out and can't even spin himself upright. I'm sure he thinks Nigel should be in!
What can you mean?
Nick Clegg: I'd relish meeting Nigel Farage in televised election debates
The Deputy Prime Minister says David Cameron should not use Ukip's possible involvement as an 'excuse' to avoid debating the top three parties
From 6th January. As I have said, that is the logic before the dynamics changed for the Party leaders this week.
If you read my post you would know this old cutting is highlighting how the dynamics have changed, and as such is pointing out how correct I am.
Whereas if you weren't so touchy you would have known that my post was backing you up and highlights the enormity of the reverse ferret calamity Clegg would now have to pull off.
Maybe I should read your post before I respond. Sorry
It's a bad week for the government - first the Royal Mail fiasco and now this. Not all weeks will be this bad hence why Labour needs to start turning the screw. Decent poll again for Labour last night. Budget bounce appears to be fading.
If you are so upset about the RM 'fiasco', tell me what you think of Labour's sale of QinetiQ?
Selling off the family silver. But that was then, and this is now.
Ah, but it puts Miliband's stupid claims of "giving it to their friends in the city" in a new context. Labour were just as keen to do it, and they got proportionally a much worse deal. And you know what? If we're unlucky enough to see Miliband in No. 10, he'll be doing exactly the same sort of thing.
"That was then, and this is now" is always a farcical response by people who have no proper response. And OGH. ;-)
It's worth remembering that the GE debates will not be about Europe. If I were Cameron I might want to see how Farage handles defending the wider UKIP manifesto, given what Farage now says about the last one.
That is very true.
However, the responses to questions posed by pollsters covered a wide range of issues - honesty, trust type things, and Clegg didn't measure up very well on any metric.
It's worth remembering that the GE debates will not be about Europe. If I were Cameron I might want to see how Farage handles defending the wider UKIP manifesto, given what Farage now says about the last one.
That is very true.
However, the responses to questions posed by pollsters covered a wide range of issues - honesty, trust type things, and Clegg didn't measure up very well on any metric.
A concern for the big three in many areas.
If they can't punch holes in Farage over wider policy issues then they deserve exposing for being complete incompetents unfit to run a whelk stand.
I can't see it happening. EdM has actually played it very cleverly. Saying you have no problem with something you know is very unlikely to happen puts the entire focus on Cameron. If UKIP do well in May then this could become a significant issue.
@philiph - "as we hear on here lot of UKIP economic messaging is leaning left. Nigel would express it with more passion, conviction and in a way that people understand far better than Ed. Labour voters went more Nigel than Nick last night, according to polls, that result could happen again. Yes, Ed would love to have Nigel in."
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
The UKIP left leaning economics is based on no more than the message given by a few posters on here, may well be the ones who advocate UKIP going for Labour votes.
One thing the left fail (deliberately) to understand is that those of us with right leaning economic tendencies are as compassionate as those on the left and as keen to see the eradication of poverty and hardship. We just disagree about the best way to achieve those goals.
Surprised there has not been more analysis of Labour's widening poll lead. What are the reasons behind this? A week ago it was 1pt. All MOE?
It's all about the vote share, not the lead. Labour's has remained fairly stable, the Tories have sunk a little bit. But the fact they climbed in the first place is probably the most significant thing. It gives us a clue to what they are likely to poll at a minimum come next May. I though they might get at least one crossover poll in the wake of the budget. If I were a Labour strategist I might take significant heart that despite the fact the parties have been relatively close for a fair while, this did not happen. Hung Parliament nailed on.
- "... last night’s widely perceived victory by Farage..."
I get the impression that you disagree Mike. Why?
Lots of genies are out of lots of bottles. If UKIP are included with zero MPs then why not the SNP with six MPs? In fact, according to that Populus mega poll, the SNP could be heading for around 20 MPs, which at a pinch could give us more than the Lib Dems. Which is the "major party" then?
LOL, It was fun to watch, Farage ripped the fake a new one. Showed him up for the useless donkey he is. At least Clegg had the courage to try and take Farage on , Dave and Ed are still behind the sofa pretending they are tough, we would know what dunces and muppets looked like if they ever debated with Farage. Even funnier was the UKIP Scotland guy , he was completely mental , claiming that Alex Salmond was dedicated to filling the highland with Pashtun Warriors. This new team in Scotland will go far.
Lots of genies are out of lots of bottles. If UKIP are included with zero MPs then why not the SNP with six MPs? In fact, according to that Populus mega poll, the SNP could be heading for around 20 MPs, which at a pinch could give us more than the Lib Dems. Which is the "major party" then?
SNP 34% (+14) Lab 34% (-8) Con 18% (+1) LD 7% (-12) UKIP 3% (+2) Grn 2% (+1)
Baxter:
Lab 35 seats (-6 seats) SNP 20 seats (+14 seats) Con 2 seats (+1 seat) LD 2 seats (-9 seats)
Polls are ephemera. You might as well base inclusion on the tea-leaves or chicken entrails.
The SNP are non-ministrable, so far as Westminster goes.
End of.
We are well aware the game is rigged and controlled by the Westminster elite , they will ensure they look after themselves. Bunch of yellow bellied cowards.
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle, with Miliband looking irrelevant. It would give Cameron a good chance to press home the one vital point that Clegg (for obvious reasons!) didn't make last night, which is that Farage's call for a referendum as soon as possible is an argument not to vote UKIP but to vote Conservative; Farage would hardly be in a position to argue, as our UKIP friends do here, that such a referendum would be unfairly lost because Cameron is such an impressive operator and therefore they want a referendum as soon as possible but not yet.
On every other policy area, there is so much ammunition to throw at 'it's all drivel' Farage that it should play well, especially since expectations would be that he would triumph.
However, I don't think it will happen, for the reasons already laid out by Avery and others.
Surprised there has not been more analysis of Labour's widening poll lead. What are the reasons behind this? A week ago it was 1pt. All MOE?
Subsiding memories of the budget. It's what I expected.
Agreed. I also wonder if there is a feeling of disappointment, when it dawned on people that the (very wise) pensions moved would make annuties dearer.
@philiph - "as we hear on here lot of UKIP economic messaging is leaning left. Nigel would express it with more passion, conviction and in a way that people understand far better than Ed. Labour voters went more Nigel than Nick last night, according to polls, that result could happen again. Yes, Ed would love to have Nigel in."
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
The UKIP left leaning economics is based on no more than the message given by a few posters on here, may well be the ones who advocate UKIP going for Labour votes.
One thing the left fail (deliberately) to understand is that those of us with right leaning economic tendencies are as compassionate as those on the left and as keen to see the eradication of poverty and hardship. We just disagree about the best way to achieve those goals.
I don't think we do fail to understand that. We just disagree with the policies that are advocated. It was not me who raised UKIP swinging to the left economically, it was you. My point was that it would be interesting to see an avowed Thatcherite defend such a swing. In reality, I suspect that UKIP will end up with a manifesto that reflects what its leadership actually believes in. And it will not be left wing in any shape or form.
UK Services PMI for March is 57.6 compared with February reading of 58.2 & January 58.3.
So that is all sectors and all months of Q1 2014 showing strong growth in the UK. Bodes well for last Quarter of the 2013-14 financial year coming in at similar GDP growth levels to the previous three quarters.
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle, with Miliband looking irrelevant. It would give Cameron a good chance to press home the one vital point that Clegg (for obvious reasons!) didn't make last night, which is that Farage's call for a referendum as soon as possible is an argument not to vote UKIP but to vote Conservative; Farage would hardly be in a position to argue, as our UKIP friends do here, that such a referendum would be unfairly lost because Cameron is such an impressive operator and therefore they want a referendum as soon as possible but not yet.
On every other policy area, there is so much ammunition to throw at 'it's all drivel' Farage that it should play well, especially since expectations would be that he would triumph.
However, I don't think it will happen, for the reasons already laid out by Avery and others.
Oh dear how the mighty have fallen.. its like seeing Wenger tell the centre back to hoof it to the big guy up front
Surprised there has not been more analysis of Labour's widening poll lead. What are the reasons behind this? A week ago it was 1pt. All MOE?
Subsiding memories of the budget. It's what I expected.
The EU debate could well see the small c conservative swing oldies head back to UKIP now that were gained in the budget bounce. That 1 point lead for Labour was bloody annoying, I get the horrible feeling my Q1/Q2 level poll wager is going to be pipped by a short head.
Still a while to run for it, but last night's EU debate was not good news as the UKIP-CON switchers sift back and perhaps even a couple of soft left LD/LAB votes head back to Ed Miliband.
Still I think 5-2 was a fair effective price on the bet.
@philiph - "as we hear on here lot of UKIP economic messaging is leaning left. Nigel would express it with more passion, conviction and in a way that people understand far better than Ed. Labour voters went more Nigel than Nick last night, according to polls, that result could happen again. Yes, Ed would love to have Nigel in."
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
The UKIP left leaning economics is based on no more than the message given by a few posters on here, may well be the ones who advocate UKIP going for Labour votes.
One thing the left fail (deliberately) to understand is that those of us with right leaning economic tendencies are as compassionate as those on the left and as keen to see the eradication of poverty and hardship. We just disagree about the best way to achieve those goals.
I wouldn't think the working class vote that UKIP are after are passionate left wing economists. Many working class people voted for Thatcher, then Blair, and those people will be the voters that UKIP are after now.
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle, with Miliband looking irrelevant. It would give Cameron a good chance to press home the one vital point that Clegg (for obvious reasons!) didn't make last night, which is that Farage's call for a referendum as soon as possible is an argument not to vote UKIP but to vote Conservative; Farage would hardly be in a position to argue, as our UKIP friends do here, that such a referendum would be unfairly lost because Cameron is such an impressive operator and therefore they want a referendum as soon as possible but not yet.
On every other policy area, there is so much ammunition to throw at 'it's all drivel' Farage that it should play well, especially since expectations would be that he would triumph.
However, I don't think it will happen, for the reasons already laid out by Avery and others.
It's difficult to argue with that. Cameron should want to get Farage in the debates. It will give him a great pitch on Europe for those who care about it deeply and it will provide an opportunity to examine the other parts of the UKIP manifesto in more detail. If Dave has anything about him, he would welcome the chance to get it on.
Lots of genies are out of lots of bottles. If UKIP are included with zero MPs then why not the SNP with six MPs? In fact, according to that Populus mega poll, the SNP could be heading for around 20 MPs, which at a pinch could give us more than the Lib Dems. Which is the "major party" then?
SNP 34% (+14) Lab 34% (-8) Con 18% (+1) LD 7% (-12) UKIP 3% (+2) Grn 2% (+1)
Baxter:
Lab 35 seats (-6 seats) SNP 20 seats (+14 seats) Con 2 seats (+1 seat) LD 2 seats (-9 seats)
Polls are ephemera. You might as well base inclusion on the tea-leaves or chicken entrails.
The SNP are non-ministrable, so far as Westminster goes.
End of.
We are well aware the game is rigged and controlled by the Westminster elite , they will ensure they look after themselves. Bunch of yellow bellied cowards.
A characteristically bellicose response from you Malcolm, yet one that is hard to dispute.
At what point do the @LibDems seriously begin to question the judgement of @nick_clegg? Every decision worse than the last.
Presumably when enough of their MPs who want to remain MPs start to worry about their future prospects. As well as when one of the leadership 'hopefuls' can face being the coalition sh*t magnet or feels confident enough that Clegg's toxicity isn't virulent enough to get passed on to them.
This entire Clegg strategy was flagged up at the time as potentially risky lest we forget. The idea that all publicity is good publicity is as foolish as the notion that being ignored and leaving the stage to your opponents must always be good too. This was an opportunity but there was always a way to blow it. If Clegg hadn't still been so toxic and it was Farage who had crashed and burned you can be sure sure Clegg's supporters wouldn't be so 'shy' on here for a start.
The Cameroons would also be dancing about far more happily rather than pretending so many of the tory grass roots won't have watched Farage and considered his views on Europe far from "extreme". Which is what Cameron said they were. Wee bit of a blunder from CCHQ that one.
Little point pretending that the only publicity that matters for the May elections will be the PPBs and a few sparse minutes of sporadic campaign coverage on the news. If the other parties want to stand in elections and not campaign then have at it but I doubt even Shapps is that out of touch. That's before the implications of Clegg's dire performance for future debates is factored in.
If the leader of a party with no MPs is included in the debate, why shouldn't the leaders of all the other parties with no MPs also be included? The Greens have a case, so do Plaid Cymru and the Northern Irish parties etc.
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle, with Miliband looking irrelevant. It would give Cameron a good chance to press home the one vital point that Clegg (for obvious reasons!) didn't make last night, which is that Farage's call for a referendum as soon as possible is an argument not to vote UKIP but to vote Conservative; Farage would hardly be in a position to argue, as our UKIP friends do here, that such a referendum would be unfairly lost because Cameron is such an impressive operator and therefore they want a referendum as soon as possible but not yet.
On every other policy area, there is so much ammunition to throw at 'it's all drivel' Farage that it should play well, especially since expectations would be that he would triumph.
However, I don't think it will happen, for the reasons already laid out by Avery and others.
I tend to agree with that. With Farage there it would be very difficult for Ed to paint Dave as anything other than he is which is moderate and central on most things. It would also show that the real debates are taking place between the centre right and right right with the left having very little to add.
This is an inevitable consequence of the world we find ourselves in where the downward pressure on spending is relentless and the upward pressure on taxes is equally so. If Labour really do go into the next election committed to anything like Osborne's budget strategy they are going to have a terrible time trying to explain how they can spend more money on all their favourite causes without putting taxes through the roof.
One of the more pernicious lies of the Brownites was the supposedly "fully funded" expenditure ignoring the context of a gaping deficit . Balls still can't resist it which is why he turns out the bankers' bonus tax so often. Such an approach will not survive an election campaign. Even Clegg would be able to show it was a fantasy.
@philiph - "as we hear on here lot of UKIP economic messaging is leaning left. Nigel would express it with more passion, conviction and in a way that people understand far better than Ed. Labour voters went more Nigel than Nick last night, according to polls, that result could happen again. Yes, Ed would love to have Nigel in."
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
The UKIP left leaning economics is based on no more than the message given by a few posters on here, may well be the ones who advocate UKIP going for Labour votes.
One thing the left fail (deliberately) to understand is that those of us with right leaning economic tendencies are as compassionate as those on the left and as keen to see the eradication of poverty and hardship. We just disagree about the best way to achieve those goals.
I wouldn't think the working class vote that UKIP are after are passionate left wing economists. Many working class people voted for Thatcher, then Blair, and those people will be the voters that UKIP are after now.
So what is the UKIP view on the minimum wage, zero-hour contracts, social housing?
There is a lot for Farage to do before he steps up onto the podium and he hasn't to date given the impression that these are things he cares about.
Back on topic I am in the will be good for Cam camp (Farage in the debates).
He can look human and outline how he is a fan but understands that the EU is encroaching on areas it shouldn't be and needs to be reined in and that he is determined to negotiate a better deal for us (which I reckon is the position of a majority of the country). And then everyone will get to choose one way or another via a referendum.
More than that, his line will be: "I trust the people."
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle
Nice theory somewhat tarnished by the reality that in a debate on being IN or OUT of Europe pretending not to be in favour of either isn't a tenable middle ground but is a place guaranteed to ferment confusion and disunity between the factions inside the tory party. They haven't gone away and will have watched last night with more than mere academic interest. They are just biding their time and will make themselves heard soon enough.
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle
Nice theory somewhat tarnished by the reality that in a debate on being IN or OUT of Europe pretending not to be in favour of either isn't a tenable middle ground but is a place guaranteed to ferment confusion and disunity between the factions inside the tory party. They haven't gone away and will have watched last night with more than mere academic interest. They are just biding their time and will make themselves heard soon enough.
It is perfectly reasonable to say I want this but not on any terms. That is Cam's views on the EU and in any case he has committed to ask the country via a referendum.
Your point about recalcitrant backbenchers, however, is supremely well made. Cam somehow absolutely must, through velvet glove or iron fist or whatever the hell means he can, get them to STFU until after GE2015.
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle, with Miliband looking irrelevant. It would give Cameron a good chance to press home the one vital point that Clegg (for obvious reasons!) didn't make last night, which is that Farage's call for a referendum as soon as possible is an argument not to vote UKIP but to vote Conservative; Farage would hardly be in a position to argue, as our UKIP friends do here, that such a referendum would be unfairly lost because Cameron is such an impressive operator and therefore they want a referendum as soon as possible but not yet.
On every other policy area, there is so much ammunition to throw at 'it's all drivel' Farage that it should play well, especially since expectations would be that he would triumph.
However, I don't think it will happen, for the reasons already laid out by Avery and others.
I tend to agree with that. With Farage there it would be very difficult for Ed to paint Dave as anything other than he is which is moderate and central on most things. It would also show that the real debates are taking place between the centre right and right right with the left having very little to add.
This is an inevitable consequence of the world we find ourselves in where the downward pressure on spending is relentless and the upward pressure on taxes is equally so. If Labour really do go into the next election committed to anything like Osborne's budget strategy they are going to have a terrible time trying to explain how they can spend more money on all their favourite causes without putting taxes through the roof.
One of the more pernicious lies of the Brownites was the supposedly "fully funded" expenditure ignoring the context of a gaping deficit . Balls still can't resist it which is why he turns out the bankers' bonus tax so often. Such an approach will not survive an election campaign. Even Clegg would be able to show it was a fantasy.
David
I think "fully funded" originated in the Golden Rules which required that the Central Government Net Cash Requirement, as translated into an annual financing requirement, be "fully funded" by gilt and Treasury Bill issuance in any one year.
The pernicious lie lay in another of the Golden Rules which stated that borrowing should only be undertaken to finance capital expenditure.
The tragic story of a Labour government moving from a CGNCR surplus in 2000-01 of £33 billion (2001 budget prediction) to CGNCR deficit of £220.8 billion announced in the April 2009 budget for their last year in office. And, of course, that 2009-10 figure excludes the additional Quantitative Easing of £200 billion in the same year.
One of the many upsides from Farage's victory last night is that it gives hope to supporters of the YES campaign that in a debate Salmond can as the "outsider" be able to pull opinion round against (one presumes) Darling.
It's like Beijing here in Leamington today. My eyes and skin are stinging, my throat is sore and there's a smell of sulphur in the air. That smog cloud has hit us hard. That, or George Osborne is in town ...
Whilst growth remains solid there are clear indications that the period of exceptional accelerating growth is coming to an end with increasing capacity restraints (there were hints of the same in the construction PMIs yesterday).
Still Markit are confident of "at least 0.7%" growth in Q1 of 2014. If we can maintain that level of growth on the back of investment we will be doing better (well is still a long way off).
The balance of trade situation which has deteriorated sharply on the back of much poorer returns on our foreign investments rather than actual exports remains the largest worry. The fact that this can be combined with a strengthening currency is one of the reasons I do not risk my hard earned in such markets!
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle
Nice theory somewhat tarnished by the reality that in a debate on being IN or OUT of Europe pretending not to be in favour of either isn't a tenable middle ground but is a place guaranteed to ferment confusion and disunity between the factions inside the tory party. They haven't gone away and will have watched last night with more than mere academic interest. They are just biding their time and will make themselves heard soon enough.
It is perfectly reasonable to say I want this but not on any terms. That is Cam's views on the EU and in any case he has committed to ask the country via a referendum.
Your point about recalcitrant backbenchers, however, is supremely well made. Cam somehow absolutely must, through velvet glove or iron fist or whatever the hell means he can, get them to STFU until after GE2015.
Problem being they are absolutely not going to STFU on precisely what those "terms" might be. That was always going to be where they focused their attacks and efforts at 'clarification'. Doesn't matter that a good many of them don't actually care what those terms are and are simply BOOers using it as an opportunity to attack Cammie. There are more than enough tories who aren't BOOers that just want some red meat to defend themselves against the kippers. If it was just a tiny fringe of BOO headbangers then Cameron could presumably keep them in their box but tory Euroscepticism has had one direction of travel for years and it's certainly not towards staying IN.
This morning on bbbc tv we had political reporter Carole describe Farage as having "controversial views" . No such label was applied to Clegg even though his views are controversial in that they are only supported by a minority of voters...
Now tuned into R5 and Vic Derbyshire is focusing on the Farage comment about WWC being an underclass...
So usual BBC europhile bias, in line with that unbalanced BBC news at ten slot last night.
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle, with Miliband looking irrelevant. It would give Cameron a good chance to press home the one vital point that Clegg (for obvious reasons!) didn't make last night, which is that Farage's call for a referendum as soon as possible is an argument not to vote UKIP but to vote Conservative; Farage would hardly be in a position to argue, as our UKIP friends do here, that such a referendum would be unfairly lost because Cameron is such an impressive operator and therefore they want a referendum as soon as possible but not yet.
On every other policy area, there is so much ammunition to throw at 'it's all drivel' Farage that it should play well, especially since expectations would be that he would triumph.
However, I don't think it will happen, for the reasons already laid out by Avery and others.
I tend to agree with that. With Farage there it would be very difficult for Ed to paint Dave as anything other than he is which is moderate and central on most things. It would also show that the real debates are taking place between the centre right and right right with the left having very little to add.
This is an inevitable consequence of the world we find ourselves in where the downward pressure on spending is relentless and the upward pressure on taxes is equally so. If Labour really do go into the next election committed to anything like Osborne's budget strategy they are going to have a terrible time trying to explain how they can spend more money on all their favourite causes without putting taxes through the roof.
One of the more pernicious lies of the Brownites was the supposedly "fully funded" expenditure ignoring the context of a gaping deficit . Balls still can't resist it which is why he turns out the bankers' bonus tax so often. Such an approach will not survive an election campaign. Even Clegg would be able to show it was a fantasy.
It does rather stand to reason that people with a centre right view of the world believe that the only debates that matter revolve around ideas that they are sympathetic to.
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle, with Miliband looking irrelevant. It would give Cameron a good chance to press home the one vital point that Clegg (for obvious reasons!) didn't make last night, which is that Farage's call for a referendum as soon as possible is an argument not to vote UKIP but to vote Conservative; Farage would hardly be in a position to argue, as our UKIP friends do here, that such a referendum would be unfairly lost because Cameron is such an impressive operator and therefore they want a referendum as soon as possible but not yet.
On every other policy area, there is so much ammunition to throw at 'it's all drivel' Farage that it should play well, especially since expectations would be that he would triumph.
However, I don't think it will happen, for the reasons already laid out by Avery and others.
I tend to agree with that. With Farage there it would be very difficult for Ed to paint Dave as anything other than he is which is moderate and central on most things. It would also show that the real debates are taking place between the centre right and right right with the left having very little to add.
This is an inevitable consequence of the world we find ourselves in where the downward pressure on spending is relentless and the upward pressure on taxes is equally so. If Labour really do go into the next election committed to anything like Osborne's budget strategy they are going to have a terrible time trying to explain how they can spend more money on all their favourite causes without putting taxes through the roof.
One of the more pernicious lies of the Brownites was the supposedly "fully funded" expenditure ignoring the context of a gaping deficit . Balls still can't resist it which is why he turns out the bankers' bonus tax so often. Such an approach will not survive an election campaign. Even Clegg would be able to show it was a fantasy.
It does rather stand to reason that people with a centre right view of the world believe that the only debates that matter revolve around ideas that they are sympathetic to.
A fair point SO but we are in a different position than we were in for the first 5 or 6 years of the millenium. The structural deficit remains huge, public spending is at unsustainable levels (hence the deficit) and the focus is on where difficult and unpleasant choices have to be made.
The alternative is really significant tax increases not just on the rich but on everyone. Is Ed really going to try to sell that as a necessity to maintain public services as Len wants him to? I seriously doubt it.
The survey last night had Clegg rated closer (but behind by 10% ) in personal ratings compared to Farage. So the label that Clegg is poisonous is partly unfair. However that has become a common view amongst many political commentators which could well bring Clegg down earlier than the GE 2015, since he will be blamed for any masive loss of MEPs etc..
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle
Nice theory somewhat tarnished by the reality that in a debate on being IN or OUT of Europe pretending not to be in favour of either isn't a tenable middle ground but is a place guaranteed to ferment confusion and disunity between the factions inside the tory party. They haven't gone away and will have watched last night with more than mere academic interest. They are just biding their time and will make themselves heard soon enough.
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle
Nice theory somewhat tarnished by the reality that in a debate on being IN or OUT of Europe pretending not to be in favour of either isn't a tenable middle ground but is a place guaranteed to ferment confusion and disunity between the factions inside the tory party. They haven't gone away and will have watched last night with more than mere academic interest. They are just biding their time and will make themselves heard soon enough.
At least Clegg got out there and made the debate - not like chicken Eck running scared from Darling.
It's like Beijing here in Leamington today. My eyes and skin are stinging, my throat is sore and there's a smell of sulphur in the air. That smog cloud has hit us hard. That, or George Osborne is in town ...
SO , move to God's country smog free and soon to be totally free.
Opinium poll " Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 10m 67% say David Cameron and Ed Miliband should have taken part in this debate #NickvNigel Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 12m 50% would vote to leave EU, 39% would vote to stay, almost the same as the last time we asked that on March 11th Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 17m If forced to choose between the two for PM, 52% would choose Farage as PM, 48% Clegg Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 18m 87% say there should be TV debates in 2015 Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 19m 64% say UKIP leader should be in 2015 debates, 82% for Conservative leader, 83% for Labour leader, 74% for Lib Dem leader Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 53m Post debate study: Winner: Farage54%, Clegg25%, Draw21% (1,041 UK adults who watched + weighted nat-rep) More stats on the way #NickvNigel Expand"
This morning on bbbc tv we had political reporter Carole describe Farage as having "controversial views" . No such label was applied to Clegg even though his views are controversial in that they are only supported by a minority of voters...
Now tuned into R5 and Vic Derbyshire is focusing on the Farage comment about WWC being an underclass...
So usual BBC europhile bias, in line with that unbalanced BBC news at ten slot last night.
That was very much akin to the BBC's favourite turn of phrase to describe Thatcher upon her death i.e decisive. No such label was applied to Tony Benn though, despite being equally valid.
It's like Beijing here in Leamington today. My eyes and skin are stinging, my throat is sore and there's a smell of sulphur in the air. That smog cloud has hit us hard. That, or George Osborne is in town ...
If George was in town you would be seeing sunlit uplands.
I believe your fellow Warwickshire doubter is having to do penance in an hair shirt at the tomb of St. Thomas-a-Becket today to absolve his sins.
Personally I think it would be helpful to Cameron to have Nigel Farage take part in the debates. On Europe, it would leave Clegg and Farage as the extremists, and Cameron as the sensible voice in the middle
Nice theory somewhat tarnished by the reality that in a debate on being IN or OUT of Europe pretending not to be in favour of either isn't a tenable middle ground but is a place guaranteed to ferment confusion and disunity between the factions inside the tory party. They haven't gone away and will have watched last night with more than mere academic interest. They are just biding their time and will make themselves heard soon enough.
At least Clegg got out there and made the debate - not like chicken Eck running scared from Darling.
Ha Ha Ha , just about the level you would expect from a unionist. Bring on the organ grinder , the monkey is no substitute. Get Dave out from behind the sofa.
It's like Beijing here in Leamington today. My eyes and skin are stinging, my throat is sore and there's a smell of sulphur in the air. That smog cloud has hit us hard. That, or George Osborne is in town ...
SO , move to God's country smog free and soon to be totally free.
Actually driving north from Edinburgh yesterday evening in the drizzle it was noteworthy that the windscreen was getting seriously dirty with smears of dust and dirt. So even that far north we don't seem to have escaped completely.
One of the many upsides from Farage's victory last night is that it gives hope to supporters of the YES campaign that in a debate Salmond can as the "outsider" be able to pull opinion round against (one presumes) Darling.
Salmond's the First Minister of the only majority administration in the UK and (nominally) commands 65 MSPs, 6 MPs, 2 MEPs and hundreds of councillors so difficult to paint himself as an outsider in a Scottish context. As ever he would be defining himself and the SNP as apart from the Westminster establishment but I'd hope he'd be aiming at a broader position than that. I'm happy for an Eck v Al debate to rest on their respective abilities.
It would also show that the real debates are taking place between the centre right and right right with the left having very little to add.
I think you're looking at this through the (perfectly sensible) mind of a centrist - centre-right voter.
The issue is that there are still alot (Some may say misguided) lefties about.
Ed Miliband despite his best efforts is almost picking these votes up by default. He can become the PM whilst winning less votes than Dave - the Lib Dem implosion (Which is so bad that noone even wants to put Clegg out of his misery) could pick up new momentum.
A car crash of an election next year with Ed somehow winning it but noone quite sure how.
It's like Beijing here in Leamington today. My eyes and skin are stinging, my throat is sore and there's a smell of sulphur in the air. That smog cloud has hit us hard. That, or George Osborne is in town ...
SO , move to God's country smog free and soon to be totally free.
Actually driving north from Edinburgh yesterday evening in the drizzle it was noteworthy that the windscreen was getting seriously dirty with smears of dust and dirt. So even that far north we don't seem to have escaped completely.
You will live on the bad side of the country David, nothing but fresh air over here. The dust clouds over there are usually homegrown though and from the local fields, not from Africa.
It would also show that the real debates are taking place between the centre right and right right with the left having very little to add.
I think you're looking at this through the (perfectly sensible) mind of a centrist - centre-right voter.
The issue is that there are still alot (Some may say misguided) lefties about.
Ed Miliband despite his best efforts is almost picking these votes up by default. He can become the PM whilst winning less votes than Dave - the Lib Dem implosion (Which is so bad that noone even wants to put Clegg out of his misery) could pick up new momentum.
A car crash of an election next year with Ed somehow winning it but noone quite sure how.
It is indeed sad to think that the only worse thing than Cameron winning is for Ed to win. Hopefully we will be out of it and looking to build a decent country by then. Not good for future prospects of the rest of England and Wales.
It would also show that the real debates are taking place between the centre right and right right with the left having very little to add.
I think you're looking at this through the (perfectly sensible) mind of a centrist - centre-right voter.
The issue is that there are still alot (Some may say misguided) lefties about.
Ed Miliband despite his best efforts is almost picking these votes up by default. He can become the PM whilst winning less votes than Dave - the Lib Dem implosion (Which is so bad that noone even wants to put Clegg out of his misery) could pick up new momentum.
A car crash of an election next year with Ed somehow winning it but noone quite sure how.
Southam has already made this point against me and I accept there is truth in it. For the avoidance of doubt I still expect Labour to be the largest party after the next election in a hung Parliament.
I just think that, like Brown, Ed will not know what to do with power when he gets it and will find himself subject to the inexorable laws of arithmetic to do many things he would not want to (and nor would any sane person, the next Parliament is not going to be fun for our dependent citizens).
The survey last night had Clegg rated closer (but behind by 10% ) in personal ratings compared to Farage. So the label that Clegg is poisonous is partly unfair. However that has become a common view amongst many political commentators which could well bring Clegg down earlier than the GE 2015, since he will be blamed for any masive loss of MEPs etc..
Depends if you think it was all down to mere presentation or not since the substance was hardly very different from what Cammie says.
He said Mr Farage did not "recognise the fact that we've got to trade and compete in Europe".
"The problem with the UKIP view is it's sort of: 'Stop the world, I want to get off, Britain can't succeed.' It's deeply pessimistic. I'm very optimistic," Mr Cameron concluded.
Same talking points, almost the exact same spin. True, Clegg was particularly dire but his Blair impersonation is usually far more accomplished than Cammie's. The public really has made it's mind up about Clegg and did it long ago. He's toxic. The lib dems flatlining on 10% since late 2010 says as much as do their results for every set of May elections. He can go on as many radio phone ins as he likes and it won't change that. This debate was focused on staying IN or OUT of the Europe not on what Clegg has done in coalition and his promises/manifesto commitments for after 2015 where he will be on far more perilous territory.
It's like Beijing here in Leamington today. My eyes and skin are stinging, my throat is sore and there's a smell of sulphur in the air. That smog cloud has hit us hard. That, or George Osborne is in town ...
SO , move to God's country smog free and soon to be totally free.
Scotland is the most beautiful place I have ever been to. Glencoe when the clouds hang low and there is rain in the air, the blue of the sea around the Western isles on a warm, sunny day, the Borders in early autumn when the moors turn a thousand shades of green into brown ... all truly wonderful and treasured parts of the country I call home. It is a shame that soon they will become a foreign land.
Actually, wouldn’t it make it more likely that the 2015 debate will be just between Cameron and Miliband? Clegg seems to have benchmarked himself and the Libdems with UKIP, in the second division. A Miliband/Cameron clash would be between the contenders for the PM role. Having only two would make for a much more effective debate.
A compromise would be a couple of debates with Cameron and Miliband (BBC and ITV) and a few Q and A sessions with all the party leaders (Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Respect and Greens). Cameron will want to go head to head with Miliband especially if the result of the election is still in doubt.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynndirector 13m Just got latest update on the amount raised for UKIP in small donations online last night. Can't tell you the figure but it's very good news.
To paraphrase a well known PBer: THE GOOD NEWS JUST KEEPS COMING
@philiph - "as we hear on here lot of UKIP economic messaging is leaning left. Nigel would express it with more passion, conviction and in a way that people understand far better than Ed. Labour voters went more Nigel than Nick last night, according to polls, that result could happen again. Yes, Ed would love to have Nigel in."
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
The UKIP left leaning economics is based on no more than the message given by a few posters on here, may well be the ones who advocate UKIP going for Labour votes.
One thing the left fail (deliberately) to understand is that those of us with right leaning economic tendencies are as compassionate as those on the left and as keen to see the eradication of poverty and hardship. We just disagree about the best way to achieve those goals.
I wouldn't think the working class vote that UKIP are after are passionate left wing economists. Many working class people voted for Thatcher, then Blair, and those people will be the voters that UKIP are after now.
So what is the UKIP view on the minimum wage, zero-hour contracts, social housing?
There is a lot for Farage to do before he steps up onto the podium and he hasn't to date given the impression that these are things he cares about.
Back on topic I am in the will be good for Cam camp (Farage in the debates).
He can look human and outline how he is a fan but understands that the EU is encroaching on areas it shouldn't be and needs to be reined in and that he is determined to negotiate a better deal for us (which I reckon is the position of a majority of the country). And then everyone will get to choose one way or another via a referendum.
More than that, his line will be: "I trust the people."
No other party is saying that right now.
The only one I am reasonably sure on is the minimum wage.. I believe UKIP say they would make it tax free
Actually, wouldn’t it make it more likely that the 2015 debate will be just between Cameron and Miliband? Clegg seems to have benchmarked himself and the Libdems with UKIP, in the second division. A Miliband/Cameron clash would be between the contenders for the PM role. Having only two would make for a much more effective debate.
A compromise would be a couple of debates with Cameron and Miliband (BBC and ITV) and a few Q and A sessions with all the party leaders (Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Respect and Greens). Cameron will want to go head to head with Miliband especially if the result of the election is still in doubt.
@philiph - "as we hear on here lot of UKIP economic messaging is leaning left. Nigel would express it with more passion, conviction and in a way that people understand far better than Ed. Labour voters went more Nigel than Nick last night, according to polls, that result could happen again. Yes, Ed would love to have Nigel in."
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
The UKIP left leaning economics is based on no more than the message given by a few posters on here, may well be the ones who advocate UKIP going for Labour votes.
One thing the left fail (deliberately) to understand is that those of us with right leaning economic tendencies are as compassionate as those on the left and as keen to see the eradication of poverty and hardship. We just disagree about the best way to achieve those goals.
I wouldn't think the working class vote that UKIP are after are passionate left wing economists. Many working class people voted for Thatcher, then Blair, and those people will be the voters that UKIP are after now.
So what is the UKIP view on the minimum wage, zero-hour contracts, social housing?
There is a lot for Farage to do before he steps up onto the podium and he hasn't to date given the impression that these are things he cares about.
Back on topic I am in the will be good for Cam camp (Farage in the debates).
He can look human and outline how he is a fan but understands that the EU is encroaching on areas it shouldn't be and needs to be reined in and that he is determined to negotiate a better deal for us (which I reckon is the position of a majority of the country). And then everyone will get to choose one way or another via a referendum.
More than that, his line will be: "I trust the people."
No other party is saying that right now.
The only one I am reasonably sure on is the minimum wage.. I believe UKIP say they would make it tax free
Wow! I wonder what they'll be cutting to fund that.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynndirector 13m Just got latest update on the amount raised for UKIP in small donations online last night. Can't tell you the figure but it's very good news.
To paraphrase a well known PBer: THE GOOD NEWS JUST KEEPS COMING
"Small donations"?
More likely to be the tips of Old Etonians than the deposits of Putin's oligarchs.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynndirector 13m Just got latest update on the amount raised for UKIP in small donations online last night. Can't tell you the figure but it's very good news.
To paraphrase a well known PBer: THE GOOD NEWS JUST KEEPS COMING
It always surprises me how little money, and few members, the political parties have.
They get millions of people voting for them, but there seem to be very few enthusiastic enough to join the parties, or donate money.
Best idea for the debates next year? How about one 2 one's based on either:- 1. Any party predicted to get more than 10% at the GE (gang of 3 experts to decide). 2. Any party with more than 5% (33) of the MPs in current Parliament.
Thus we end up with 6 debates if UKIP pass the 10% barrier to join Lab, Con and LDs.
and some of them might be fun!
PS The SNP might get there in GE2020 if the referendum is won by No but they get 33+ seats at GE 2015. Replacing the LDs or UKIP in 2020?
Not an opportune moment for Owen Patteson to be consulting on removing air quality monitoring but more to the point I have been trying to work out why politicians like Clegg are so disliked and I think it is because he is a liar and people do not take kindly to being lied to.Here is his famous election broadcast before the 2010 election-"Say goodbye to broken promises" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTT-bbBIbFk. His loss of credibility stems from his discrediting of himself,and all for the sake of a ministerial car.
For all the to and fro and ins and out of the 2 hours of the Clegg/Farage debate, the last statement by Farge was, to my mind - and many others - the most effective, and one that will resonate from now until the 2015 GE. It was, "come and join the peoples army and get rid of the old gang".
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynndirector 13m Just got latest update on the amount raised for UKIP in small donations online last night. Can't tell you the figure but it's very good news.
To paraphrase a well known PBer: THE GOOD NEWS JUST KEEPS COMING
It always surprises me how little money, and few members, the political parties have.
They get millions of people voting for them, but there seem to be very few enthusiastic enough to join the parties, or donate money.
Like newspapers, they sell a product that the public doesn't value.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynndirector 13m Just got latest update on the amount raised for UKIP in small donations online last night. Can't tell you the figure but it's very good news.
To paraphrase a well known PBer: THE GOOD NEWS JUST KEEPS COMING
It always surprises me how little money, and few members, the political parties have.
They get millions of people voting for them, but there seem to be very few enthusiastic enough to join the parties, or donate money.
Hugely preferable to the the corrupt mash-up of cash and lobbying in the 'democratic' (small d) US of A.
Southam has already made this point against me and I accept there is truth in it. For the avoidance of doubt I still expect Labour to be the largest party after the next election in a hung Parliament.
I just think that, like Brown, Ed will not know what to do with power when he gets it and will find himself subject to the inexorable laws of arithmetic to do many things he would not want to (and nor would any sane person, the next Parliament is not going to be fun for our dependent citizens).
I think you're mistaken about Ed but right that the next Parliament will not be fun. More to the point, it's the message that candidates are getting loud and clear - do not hint at unauthorised promises that cost money. The Labour government that I expect will be notably careful fiscally, to the disappointment for different reasons of some on both left and right, though the balance of impact will shift.
Best move by Cameron may be to challenge Farage to a debate in 2015 on a 1-2-1 basis rather than try and duck out. Cameron needs to hammer home the message of a vote for UKIP = ED Miliband as PM and no EC referendum.
@philiph - "as we hear on here lot of UKIP economic messaging is leaning left. Nigel would express it with more passion, conviction and in a way that people understand far better than Ed. Labour voters went more Nigel than Nick last night, according to polls, that result could happen again. Yes, Ed would love to have Nigel in."
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
The UKIP left leaning economics is based on no more than the message given by a few posters on here, may well be the ones who advocate UKIP going for Labour votes.
One thing the left fail (deliberately) to understand is that those of us with right leaning economic tendencies are as compassionate as those on the left and as keen to see the eradication of poverty and hardship. We just disagree about the best way to achieve those goals.
I wouldn't think the working class vote that UKIP are after are passionate left wing economists. Many working class people voted for Thatcher, then Blair, and those people will be the voters that UKIP are after now.
So what is the UKIP view on the minimum wage, zero-hour contracts, social housing?
There is a lot for Farage to do before he steps up onto the podium and he hasn't to date given the impression that these are things he cares about.
Back on topic I am in the will be good for Cam camp (Farage in the debates).
He can look human and outline how he is a fan but understands that the EU is encroaching on areas it shouldn't be and needs to be reined in and that he is determined to negotiate a better deal for us (which I reckon is the position of a majority of the country). And then everyone will get to choose one way or another via a referendum.
More than that, his line will be: "I trust the people."
No other party is saying that right now.
The only one I am reasonably sure on is the minimum wage.. I believe UKIP say they would make it tax free
Wow! I wonder what they'll be cutting to fund that.
Ooh maybe those nasty people want to make cuts to the bloated state?!
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynndirector 13m Just got latest update on the amount raised for UKIP in small donations online last night. Can't tell you the figure but it's very good news.
To paraphrase a well known PBer: THE GOOD NEWS JUST KEEPS COMING
It always surprises me how little money, and few members, the political parties have.
They get millions of people voting for them, but there seem to be very few enthusiastic enough to join the parties, or donate money.
The problem is the offer the parties give. What do they offer me in return for my subs?
If I was going to become a member of my local Conservative association, then I'd be socialising with people who I have fairly little in common with. I disagree fundamentally with UKIP on many local issues, especially housing; I'm the sort of person Labour pretends to hate (privately school educated), and I'm not enough of a pervert to be a Lib Dem.
Even if they'd have me, I'd not want to be a member of any of them. I might support an outstanding candidate of any of those parties, but the local associations? No way.
@philiph - "as we hear on here lot of UKIP economic messaging is leaning left. Nigel would express it with more passion, conviction and in a way that people understand far better than Ed. Labour voters went more Nigel than Nick last night, according to polls, that result could happen again. Yes, Ed would love to have Nigel in."
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
The UKIP left leaning economics is based on no more than the message given by a few posters on here, may well be the ones who advocate UKIP going for Labour votes.
One thing the left fail (deliberately) to understand is that those of us with right leaning economic tendencies are as compassionate as those on the left and as keen to see the eradication of poverty and hardship. We just disagree about the best way to achieve those goals.
I wouldn't think the working class vote that UKIP are after are passionate left wing economists. Many working class people voted for Thatcher, then Blair, and those people will be the voters that UKIP are after now.
So what is the UKIP view on the minimum wage, zero-hour contracts, social housing?
There is a lot for Farage to do before he steps up onto the podium and he hasn't to date given the impression that these are things he cares about.
Back on topic I am in the will be good for Cam camp (Farage in the debates).
He can look human and outline how he is a fan but understands that the EU is encroaching on areas it shouldn't be and needs to be reined in and that he is determined to negotiate a better deal for us (which I reckon is the position of a majority of the country). And then everyone will get to choose one way or another via a referendum.
More than that, his line will be: "I trust the people."
No other party is saying that right now.
The only one I am reasonably sure on is the minimum wage.. I believe UKIP say they would make it tax free
Wow! I wonder what they'll be cutting to fund that.
Ooh maybe those nasty people want to make cuts to the bloated state?!
Who said anything about nasty? UKIP will certainly have to make cuts at a level far greater than promised by the Tories to fund such a move. Have they said which parts of the bloated state they wish to cut back on?
It's like Beijing here in Leamington today. My eyes and skin are stinging, my throat is sore and there's a smell of sulphur in the air. That smog cloud has hit us hard. That, or George Osborne is in town ...
SO , move to God's country smog free and soon to be totally free.
Scotland is the most beautiful place I have ever been to. Glencoe when the clouds hang low and there is rain in the air, the blue of the sea around the Western isles on a warm, sunny day, the Borders in early autumn when the moors turn a thousand shades of green into brown ... all truly wonderful and treasured parts of the country I call home. It is a shame that soon they will become a foreign land.
Southam - I instinctively felt this way when I first considered Scottish independence, but Scotland will be just as a) beautiful and b) accessible should they declare independence (I'm assuming they won't close the border, though you never know). I wouldn't be any less able to go there or even live there were it a different state. I love Scotland too, and went on all my early childhood holidays to Arran, where my mother was born. But my fondness for the place doesn't depend on or even stem from being part of the same polity. I like Ireland too, but feel no need to reincorporate the Republic of Ireland into the UK.
Best move by Cameron may be to challenge Farage to a debate in 2015 on a 1-2-1 basis rather than try and duck out. Cameron needs to hammer home the message of a vote for UKIP = ED Miliband as PM and no EC referendum.
I assure you that Cameron will want to speak as little about Europe as is actually possible in the run up to the EU elections and after it he would rather the subject never came up again.
Though I'm afraid a great many of his own MPs are somewhat unlikely to let that happen. Those same MPs being the reason Cammie wants it to all to go away as quickly as possible.
It's like Beijing here in Leamington today. My eyes and skin are stinging, my throat is sore and there's a smell of sulphur in the air. That smog cloud has hit us hard. That, or George Osborne is in town ...
SO , move to God's country smog free and soon to be totally free.
Scotland is the most beautiful place I have ever been to. Glencoe when the clouds hang low and there is rain in the air, the blue of the sea around the Western isles on a warm, sunny day, the Borders in early autumn when the moors turn a thousand shades of green into brown ... all truly wonderful and treasured parts of the country I call home. It is a shame that soon they will become a foreign land.
Southam - I instinctively felt this way when I first considered Scottish independence, but Scotland will be just as a) beautiful and b) accessible should they declare independence (I'm assuming they won't close the border, though you never know). I wouldn't be any less able to go there or even live there were it a different state. I love Scotland too, and went on all my early childhood holidays to Arran, where my mother was born. But my fondness for the place doesn't depend on or even stem from being part of the same polity. I like Ireland too, but feel no need to reincorporate the Republic of Ireland into the UK.
Absolutely. I would regret the break-up of the UK and instinctively do not like to think of Scotland as a foreign land, but in the end it's up to the Scots. And it seems that from their perspective the Union has had its day.
It's like Beijing here in Leamington today. My eyes and skin are stinging, my throat is sore and there's a smell of sulphur in the air. That smog cloud has hit us hard. That, or George Osborne is in town ...
SO , move to God's country smog free and soon to be totally free.
Scotland is the most beautiful place I have ever been to. Glencoe when the clouds hang low and there is rain in the air, the blue of the sea around the Western isles on a warm, sunny day, the Borders in early autumn when the moors turn a thousand shades of green into brown ... all truly wonderful and treasured parts of the country I call home. It is a shame that soon they will become a foreign land.
Glencoe as you describe it is my favourite place on earth. Snow on the surrounding mountains adds to it as well.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynndirector 13m Just got latest update on the amount raised for UKIP in small donations online last night. Can't tell you the figure but it's very good news.
To paraphrase a well known PBer: THE GOOD NEWS JUST KEEPS COMING
It always surprises me how little money, and few members, the political parties have.
They get millions of people voting for them, but there seem to be very few enthusiastic enough to join the parties, or donate money.
The problem is the offer the parties give. What do they offer me in return for my subs?
If I was going to become a member of my local Conservative association, then I'd be socialising with people who I have fairly little in common with. I disagree fundamentally with UKIP on many local issues, especially housing; I'm the sort of person Labour pretends to hate (privately school educated), and I'm not enough of a pervert to be a Lib Dem.
Even if they'd have me, I'd not want to be a member of any of them. I might support an outstanding candidate of any of those parties, but the local associations? No way.
I grew up in the lake district, in a rural and very blue area (maybe with a hint of yellow). The town had no Labour Club I can recall, but the Con Club was very popular.
Most of the 6th form at school joined (that's the final year of A-levels, kiddiwinks). They had cheap beer and a decent pool table, which may or may not have been related to that trend...
The problem is the offer the parties give. What do they offer me in return for my subs?
I don't know about other parties (do they ever discuss policy in a structured way?), but this week what I got out of my membership was an absolutely fascinating Conservative Policy Forum meeting, This comprised about 20 of us meeting in our very pleasant local pub for an in-depth discussion on a brief issued each month. The subject of this meeting was on policing. What made it so fascinating was the contribution of our Sussex Police Commissioner, Katy Bourne, who accepted our invitation to attend. I hadn't heard her before, but she is seriously impressive, and the result was that we were able to have a well-informed and very constructive discussion, which then feeds back to the relevant minister.
@philiph - "as we hear on here lot of UKIP economic messaging is leaning left. Nigel would express it with more passion, conviction and in a way that people understand far better than Ed. Labour voters went more Nigel than Nick last night, according to polls, that result could happen again. Yes, Ed would love to have Nigel in."
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
I .
So what is the UKIP view on the minimum wage, zero-hour contracts, social housing?
There is a lot for Farage to do before he steps up onto the podium and he hasn't to date given the impression that these are things he cares about.
Back on topic I am in the will be good for Cam camp (Farage in the debates).
He can look human and outline how he is a fan but understands that the EU is encroaching on areas it shouldn't be and needs to be reined in and that he is determined to negotiate a better deal for us (which I reckon is the position of a majority of the country). And then everyone will get to choose one way or another via a referendum.
More than that, his line will be: "I trust the people."
No other party is saying that right now.
The only one I am reasonably sure on is the minimum wage.. I believe UKIP say they would make it tax free
Wow! I wonder what they'll be cutting to fund that.
Ooh maybe those nasty people want to make cuts to the bloated state?!
Who said anything about nasty? UKIP will certainly have to make cuts at a level far greater than promised by the Tories to fund such a move. Have they said which parts of the bloated state they wish to cut back on?
I would hope, and expect, a UKIP govt to be unsentimental about cutting the public sector in a way that the other parties shy away from.
My guess is they would say EU fees, NHS management, Quangos etc etc
Wouldn't waste your time trying to pin me down on specific details, I am no more involved in UKIP policy than you are that of the LDs, Im just a punter on a political debating site trying to answer a question you have posed. I know which direction Id like the country to move in, and UKIP seem to chime with that, good enough for me.
What I would say is it is a mistake for the Labour Party to characterise all Labour voters as progressive, public sector lovers who would be horrified at a smaller state. I believe there is a large section of them are not like that at all
Best move by Cameron may be to challenge Farage to a debate in 2015 on a 1-2-1 basis rather than try and duck out. Cameron needs to hammer home the message of a vote for UKIP = ED Miliband as PM and no EC referendum.
I assure you that Cameron will want to speak as little about Europe as is actually possible in the run up to the EU elections and after it he would rather the subject never came up again. Though I'm afraid a great many of his own MPs are somewhat unlikely to let that happen. Those same MPs being the reason Cammie wants it to all to go away as quickly as possible.
Mick that is why it is best for Cameron to take the lead on the Europe debate in a head to head with Farage. Of course that requires Cameron to do real work on what changes he will be asking the EC to make. Which is where things may come unstuck due to his europhiles at the Foreign Office!
I didn't watch the debate but did Farage mention the point that the first gay marriages happened on Saturday and that God sent the sandstorms on Monday.
That cannot be a coincidence. Gay floods and now gay sandstorms, or are we all supposed to think it was just blind chance? Yeah right!
I didn't watch the debate but did Farage mention the point that the first gay marriages happened on Saturday and that God sent the sandstorms on Monday. That cannot be a coincidence. Gay floods and now gay sandstorms, or are we all supposed to think it was just blind chance? Yeah right!
Comments
I would love to see Farage advocate left wing economic policy with passion and conviction. As an avowed Thatcherite his conversion would be something to behold.
"That was then, and this is now" is always a farcical response by people who have no proper response. And OGH. ;-)
However, the responses to questions posed by pollsters covered a wide range of issues - honesty, trust type things, and Clegg didn't measure up very well on any metric.
A concern for the big three in many areas.
As a true kipper, can you explain to me why 'College' was wearing an Old Etonian tie in last night's debate.
Does he think it the only real route to occupancy of No 10 and Chequers?
I can't see it happening. EdM has actually played it very cleverly. Saying you have no problem with something you know is very unlikely to happen puts the entire focus on Cameron. If UKIP do well in May then this could become a significant issue.
One thing the left fail (deliberately) to understand is that those of us with right leaning economic tendencies are as compassionate as those on the left and as keen to see the eradication of poverty and hardship. We just disagree about the best way to achieve those goals.
Even funnier was the UKIP Scotland guy , he was completely mental , claiming that Alex Salmond was dedicated to filling the highland with Pashtun Warriors. This new team in Scotland will go far.
On every other policy area, there is so much ammunition to throw at 'it's all drivel' Farage that it should play well, especially since expectations would be that he would triumph.
However, I don't think it will happen, for the reasons already laid out by Avery and others.
Agreed. I also wonder if there is a feeling of disappointment, when it dawned on people that the (very wise) pensions moved would make annuties dearer.
In the same way Romney was nailed on? Sorry - only teasing - couldn't resist.
I agree that Labour strategists will have been relieved to avoid crossover. It seemed likely.
Very quick post to get in in front of Robert S.
UK Services PMI for March is 57.6 compared with February reading of 58.2 & January 58.3.
So that is all sectors and all months of Q1 2014 showing strong growth in the UK. Bodes well for last Quarter of the 2013-14 financial year coming in at similar GDP growth levels to the previous three quarters.
As someone who supports the creation of an Independent Republic of London, you are a nationalist.
Still a while to run for it, but last night's EU debate was not good news as the UKIP-CON switchers sift back and perhaps even a couple of soft left LD/LAB votes head back to Ed Miliband.
Still I think 5-2 was a fair effective price on the bet.
At what point do the @LibDems seriously begin to question the judgement of @nick_clegg? Every decision worse than the last.
Presumably when enough of their MPs who want to remain MPs start to worry about their future prospects. As well as when one of the leadership 'hopefuls' can face being the coalition sh*t magnet or feels confident enough that Clegg's toxicity isn't virulent enough to get passed on to them.
This entire Clegg strategy was flagged up at the time as potentially risky lest we forget.
The idea that all publicity is good publicity is as foolish as the notion that being ignored and leaving the stage to your opponents must always be good too. This was an opportunity but there was always a way to blow it. If Clegg hadn't still been so toxic and it was Farage who had crashed and burned you can be sure sure Clegg's supporters wouldn't be so 'shy' on here for a start.
The Cameroons would also be dancing about far more happily rather than pretending so many of the tory grass roots won't have watched Farage and considered his views on Europe far from "extreme". Which is what Cameron said they were. Wee bit of a blunder from CCHQ that one.
Little point pretending that the only publicity that matters for the May elections will be the PPBs and a few sparse minutes of sporadic campaign coverage on the news. If the other parties want to stand in elections and not campaign then have at it but I doubt even Shapps is that out of touch. That's before the implications of Clegg's dire performance for future debates is factored in.
This is an inevitable consequence of the world we find ourselves in where the downward pressure on spending is relentless and the upward pressure on taxes is equally so. If Labour really do go into the next election committed to anything like Osborne's budget strategy they are going to have a terrible time trying to explain how they can spend more money on all their favourite causes without putting taxes through the roof.
One of the more pernicious lies of the Brownites was the supposedly "fully funded" expenditure ignoring the context of a gaping deficit . Balls still can't resist it which is why he turns out the bankers' bonus tax so often. Such an approach will not survive an election campaign. Even Clegg would be able to show it was a fantasy.
Actually it should be a good month for Tory polling. The key will be workers opening their payslips and reading the figures.
Not something to be seen doing in the City but a widespread practice elsewhere.
The only two men who can realistically be Prime Minister.
There is a lot for Farage to do before he steps up onto the podium and he hasn't to date given the impression that these are things he cares about.
Back on topic I am in the will be good for Cam camp (Farage in the debates).
He can look human and outline how he is a fan but understands that the EU is encroaching on areas it shouldn't be and needs to be reined in and that he is determined to negotiate a better deal for us (which I reckon is the position of a majority of the country). And then everyone will get to choose one way or another via a referendum.
More than that, his line will be: "I trust the people."
No other party is saying that right now.
They haven't gone away and will have watched last night with more than mere academic interest. They are just biding their time and will make themselves heard soon enough.
Your point about recalcitrant backbenchers, however, is supremely well made. Cam somehow absolutely must, through velvet glove or iron fist or whatever the hell means he can, get them to STFU until after GE2015.
I think "fully funded" originated in the Golden Rules which required that the Central Government Net Cash Requirement, as translated into an annual financing requirement, be "fully funded" by gilt and Treasury Bill issuance in any one year.
The pernicious lie lay in another of the Golden Rules which stated that borrowing should only be undertaken to finance capital expenditure.
The tragic story of a Labour government moving from a CGNCR surplus in 2000-01 of £33 billion (2001 budget prediction) to CGNCR deficit of £220.8 billion announced in the April 2009 budget for their last year in office. And, of course, that 2009-10 figure excludes the additional Quantitative Easing of £200 billion in the same year.
Oh dear. How we all miss Gordon!
December was the coolest month.
Breeding little lies out of the dead land.
My December 24th was as April 1st to YouGov.
Whilst growth remains solid there are clear indications that the period of exceptional accelerating growth is coming to an end with increasing capacity restraints (there were hints of the same in the construction PMIs yesterday).
Still Markit are confident of "at least 0.7%" growth in Q1 of 2014. If we can maintain that level of growth on the back of investment we will be doing better (well is still a long way off).
The balance of trade situation which has deteriorated sharply on the back of much poorer returns on our foreign investments rather than actual exports remains the largest worry. The fact that this can be combined with a strengthening currency is one of the reasons I do not risk my hard earned in such markets!
Now tuned into R5 and Vic Derbyshire is focusing on the Farage comment about WWC being an underclass...
So usual BBC europhile bias, in line with that unbalanced BBC news at ten slot last night.
The alternative is really significant tax increases not just on the rich but on everyone. Is Ed really going to try to sell that as a necessity to maintain public services as Len wants him to? I seriously doubt it.
The survey last night had Clegg rated closer (but behind by 10% ) in personal ratings compared to Farage. So the label that Clegg is poisonous is partly unfair. However that has become a common view amongst many political commentators which could well bring Clegg down earlier than the GE 2015, since he will be blamed for any masive loss of MEPs etc..
Why are you fermenting rather than fomenting?
I predict a whine in the making.
" Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 10m
67% say David Cameron and Ed Miliband should have taken part in this debate #NickvNigel
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Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 12m
50% would vote to leave EU, 39% would vote to stay, almost the same as the last time we asked that on March 11th
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Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 17m
If forced to choose between the two for PM, 52% would choose Farage as PM, 48% Clegg
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87% say there should be TV debates in 2015
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64% say UKIP leader should be in 2015 debates, 82% for Conservative leader, 83% for Labour leader, 74% for Lib Dem leader
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Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 53m
Post debate study: Winner: Farage54%, Clegg25%, Draw21% (1,041 UK adults who watched + weighted nat-rep) More stats on the way #NickvNigel
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David Cameron criticises both his deputy, Nick Clegg, and UKIP leader Nigel Farage, after their televised EU debate. http://bbc.in/1j3dx34
Fop chicken.
I believe your fellow Warwickshire doubter is having to do penance in an hair shirt at the tomb of St. Thomas-a-Becket today to absolve his sins.
Have faith, SO, or you will surely follow.
I'm happy for an Eck v Al debate to rest on their respective abilities.
The issue is that there are still alot (Some may say misguided) lefties about.
Ed Miliband despite his best efforts is almost picking these votes up by default. He can become the PM whilst winning less votes than Dave - the Lib Dem implosion (Which is so bad that noone even wants to put Clegg out of his misery) could pick up new momentum.
A car crash of an election next year with Ed somehow winning it but noone quite sure how.
I just think that, like Brown, Ed will not know what to do with power when he gets it and will find himself subject to the inexorable laws of arithmetic to do many things he would not want to (and nor would any sane person, the next Parliament is not going to be fun for our dependent citizens).
He said Mr Farage did not "recognise the fact that we've got to trade and compete in Europe".
"The problem with the UKIP view is it's sort of: 'Stop the world, I want to get off, Britain can't succeed.' It's deeply pessimistic. I'm very optimistic," Mr Cameron concluded.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26865692
Same talking points, almost the exact same spin. True, Clegg was particularly dire but his Blair impersonation is usually far more accomplished than Cammie's. The public really has made it's mind up about Clegg and did it long ago. He's toxic. The lib dems flatlining on 10% since late 2010 says as much as do their results for every set of May elections. He can go on as many radio phone ins as he likes and it won't change that. This debate was focused on staying IN or OUT of the Europe not on what Clegg has done in coalition and his promises/manifesto commitments for after 2015 where he will be on far more perilous territory.
A compromise would be a couple of debates with Cameron and Miliband (BBC and ITV) and a few Q and A sessions with all the party leaders (Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Respect and Greens). Cameron will want to go head to head with Miliband especially if the result of the election is still in doubt.
The #EuropeDebate on BBC2 was yesterday's most watched programme away from BBC1 and ITV with 1.74m/8.6% tuning in from 7pm.
Slightly better than a five minute PPB. Or worse. Depending on if you are calamity Clegg or not.
Just got latest update on the amount raised for UKIP in small donations online last night. Can't tell you the figure but it's very good news.
To paraphrase a well known PBer: THE GOOD NEWS JUST KEEPS COMING
More likely to be the tips of Old Etonians than the deposits of Putin's oligarchs.
They get millions of people voting for them, but there seem to be very few enthusiastic enough to join the parties, or donate money.
1. Any party predicted to get more than 10% at the GE (gang of 3 experts to decide).
2. Any party with more than 5% (33) of the MPs in current Parliament.
Thus we end up with 6 debates if UKIP pass the 10% barrier to join Lab, Con and LDs.
and some of them might be fun!
PS The SNP might get there in GE2020 if the referendum is won by No but they get 33+ seats at GE 2015. Replacing the LDs or UKIP in 2020?
Kate Hollern 199 votes
Sara Ibrahim 53
Naheed Arshad- Mather 44
Ann Courtney 39
25 postal votes disallowed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTT-bbBIbFk.
His loss of credibility stems from his discrediting of himself,and all for the sake of a ministerial car.
And do you know what? They are coming!
Maria Miller cleared of fiddling expenses,but ordered to repay £5800 "administrative error" and apologise for "legalistic" response
If I was going to become a member of my local Conservative association, then I'd be socialising with people who I have fairly little in common with. I disagree fundamentally with UKIP on many local issues, especially housing; I'm the sort of person Labour pretends to hate (privately school educated), and I'm not enough of a pervert to be a Lib Dem.
Even if they'd have me, I'd not want to be a member of any of them. I might support an outstanding candidate of any of those parties, but the local associations? No way.
Though I'm afraid a great many of his own MPs are somewhat unlikely to let that happen.
Those same MPs being the reason Cammie wants it to all to go away as quickly as possible.
Most of the 6th form at school joined (that's the final year of A-levels, kiddiwinks). They had cheap beer and a decent pool table, which may or may not have been related to that trend...
My guess is they would say EU fees, NHS management, Quangos etc etc
Wouldn't waste your time trying to pin me down on specific details, I am no more involved in UKIP policy than you are that of the LDs, Im just a punter on a political debating site trying to answer a question you have posed. I know which direction Id like the country to move in, and UKIP seem to chime with that, good enough for me.
What I would say is it is a mistake for the Labour Party to characterise all Labour voters as progressive, public sector lovers who would be horrified at a smaller state. I believe there is a large section of them are not like that at all
That cannot be a coincidence. Gay floods and now gay sandstorms, or are we all supposed to think it was just blind chance? Yeah right!