The next election's going to be about the little guy v the big guys. Like I've said all along.
Who the hell do us little guys vote for, though?
Guts me to say it, but not only is there no one I want to vote for - there's no one I feel I can vote for, even holding my nose.
I'm in the same boat. At the last GE I had the choice of the main 3 or the effing BNP. I might just go in the voting booth and write swear words over the ballot paper in green crayon.
So are we expecting a Faragasm in tomorrow's YouGov (too soon for today's to be affected)? How many people will have seen it, or seen extracts? Worth checking the 10 o'clock news to see if they tun with it.
I'm in the south west, and last time it was Con 30, UKIP 22, LD 17, Green 9, Lab 8 (all approximate), with 3 Con, 2 UKIP and 1 LD elected. How much of a UKIP swing would see them get 4 and Con 2, as I suspect will be the result does anyone know?
It'll all come down to the Gibraltarian vote no doubt.
Well, you divide each party's total by N+1, where N is the number of seats already allocated. So if it was UKIP 42, Con 22, Lab 14, Green 10, LD 10 (vaguely plausible), UKIP would get No 1 (then divide by 2 to make them 21), Con number 2 (divide to make 11), UKIP No 3 (now divide by 3 to make them 14), UKIP and Lab 4 and 5 (divide by 5 and 2 respectively to make 8 and 7) and Con No 6, so total UKIP 3, Con 2, Lab 1. But add 2 to Green or LD and then snaffle that last seat. For UKIP in get 4, they'd need to have a share which was still bigger than the first alternative when divided by 4 - not likely IMO.
In general PR with smallish regions produce not very exciting changes!
Mr. Llama, rejected? After the Second Punic War, he became leader of Carthage.
That's the difference between Hannibal and Caesar. After defeat, Hannibal became more powerful. After victory, Caesar was killed by his own side.
Incidentally, have you read Theodore Dodge's biographies of Alexander, Hannibal and for Caesar].
Farage = Morris dancer
Clegg = Morris Dancer
Mr. Brooke, that is a very unkind and inaccurate remark. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Mr. Dancer was making a valid point, he was talking b0llocks admittedly (if Hannibal was so good how come he had to leg it from Carthage, take work as a mecenary etc etc.), but he was making a serious point.
I shall add your recommendations to my reading list, but unless they are available on Kindle it will be a long time before I'll be able to buy those books (we are back to the "one in one out" lock down again).
haha Mr Llama since I have been down here in the SE ( Ashford ) I have lost all sense of shame. I have spent the days picking gold off the streets and will use it to train as feline vet when I shall charge extortionate fees to fund my huge house which will appreciate at 30% a month. Then I shall buy Poland.
*Sniggers*
Don't forget, if you are heading this way to visit Mrs. Brooke's old stamping ground do stop off for a small, sweet, sherry.
Regrettably Mr L I'm not heading your way this week. Mrs B wants to go to Canterbury and then it's back home Friday. But since I'm hoping to complete on a deal Monday and there are customers down here I could well be back. I have however enjoyed Tenterden and Cranbrook and popping in to vineyards. Given another few decades you could soon be civilised :-)
Can someone in the (LibDem) know please explain the relevance of Orpington? I seem to remember there might have been a famous by-election there once but is that it?
There was a famous by-election win there, and for a while 'Orpington man' was a 'mondeo man' type phrase.
But tbh I think it was just a place picked to illustrate 'everyone in Scotland has the right to move to a particular place, doesn't mean they will' point.
Thanks Corporeal. Eck is probably already planning day trips there for the Better Together team between now and 18th September.
The next election's going to be about the little guy v the big guys. Like I've said all along.
Who the hell do us little guys vote for, though?
Guts me to say it, but not only is there no one I want to vote for - there's no one I feel I can vote for, even holding my nose.
if you feel like that, why not look at the candidates and pick the best? Who has integrity, will work hard and not lose sight of they are standing and who they represent. Who has the most character? That transcends the party bickering.
The next election's going to be about the little guy v the big guys. Like I've said all along.
Who the hell do us little guys vote for, though?
Guts me to say it, but not only is there no one I want to vote for - there's no one I feel I can vote for, even holding my nose.
if you feel like that, why not look at the candidates and pick the best? Who has integrity, will work hard and not lose sight of they are standing and who they represent. Who has the most character? That transcends the party bickering.
Tbh that's what I tend to do, usually, within reason.
Edit: no idea why it's showing your comment twice.
It was never going to be game changing, or even significant for most people, but it was notable.
About the only thing that can make Clegg seem good is the stupendously amusing complacency of those who don't seem to think any political event matters in politics. Why not send all those irrelevant activists home and not bother with election campaigning at all? It doesn't matter, who cares, why vote, politics is for the politically obsessed, etc.
*chortle*
I agree with Mick
Most "politics" is utterly irrelevant displacement activity to keep the committed occupied. Tonight was just such an event.
Keeping the committed occupied and, additionally (as the things that occupy them will impact it), motivated, is not irrelevant.
It's going to be much harder keeping Farage out of the GE2015 leaders' debates.
Gods, Cameron and Ed M would get such a mauling if they weren't careful. The lesson they should take from this is that even though people dislike the smooth professionalism they exude, they still vote for them, and they should not try to match Farage's style because it seems more popular; they would be no good at it.
I'm in the south west, and last time it was Con 30, UKIP 22, LD 17, Green 9, Lab 8 (all approximate), with 3 Con, 2 UKIP and 1 LD elected. How much of a UKIP swing would see them get 4 and Con 2, as I suspect will be the result does anyone know?
It'll all come down to the Gibraltarian vote no doubt.
For all practical purposes 4-2 is near impossible.
two conditions would have to be satisfied.
Let T = the third party's votes (whoever it may be), INT is the integer part e.g. INT(2.9)=2
So are we expecting a Faragasm in tomorrow's YouGov (too soon for today's to be affected)? How many people will have seen it, or seen extracts? Worth checking the 10 o'clock news to see if they tun with it.
I'm in the south west, and last time it was Con 30, UKIP 22, LD 17, Green 9, Lab 8 (all approximate), with 3 Con, 2 UKIP and 1 LD elected. How much of a UKIP swing would see them get 4 and Con 2, as I suspect will be the result does anyone know?
It'll all come down to the Gibraltarian vote no doubt.
Well, you divide each party's total by N+1, where N is the number of seats already allocated. So if it was UKIP 42, Con 22, Lab 14, Green 10, LD 10 (vaguely plausible), UKIP would get No 1 (then divide by 2 to make them 21), Con number 2 (divide to make 11), UKIP No 3 (now divide by 3 to make them 14), UKIP and Lab 4 and 5 (divide by 5 and 2 respectively to make 8 and 7) and Con No 6, so total UKIP 3, Con 2, Lab 1. But add 2 to Green or LD and then snaffle that last seat. For UKIP in get 4, they'd need to have a share which was still bigger than the first alternative when divided by 4 - not likely IMO.
In general PR with smallish regions produce not very exciting changes!
Thanks gentlemen. This is how I remind myself I am still a mere political amateur enthusiast, not the real deal!
Did anyone mention this morning's CIPS/Markit PMIs for the UK Construction Sector?
The three months Construction PMIs for Q1 2014 have all read in the sixties:
Jan 64.6 Feb 62.6 Mar 62.5
March marks the 11th month in a row of sector growth (i.e. with PMIs above 50). Rates of Residential and Commercial construction both grew in March but Civil Engineering fell back from its flood boosted high in February. New work across all sectors increased but at its lowest rate since last September. Sector employment growth was at its second highest since August 2007.
Twelve month confidence levels were at record levels, with 59% of respondents forecasting a rise in output over the following year and only 5% a reduction.
Bad news? None really, but some warning signs that the recessionary slack in the sector is nearing its end. Input prices rose sharply, raw material delivery lead times extended and sub-contractor availability declined.
So if building is your career future, now is the time to enter the market. And if you are already a builder, get out of DyedWoolie's pub (at least during the day)!
St. George is leading the March of the Builders to victory.
The best Question tonight for me was the one which said what's the point in voting for any parties at a GE knowing a lot of the rules/policies coming from Brussels,it just destroyed clegg's argument in that one Question.
And Farage's argument was demolished by his love-in for despots of all varieties.
What utter crap, did you actually read and understand what he said or just follow the headlines?
I think it quite likely Cameron will scuttle the debates altogether rather than give Farage a platform.
Agreed. But tonight's performance if it gets the public's attention will make even that best of the bad options available worse than it was before, since it will become even more obvious he's ducking Farage.
It's going to be much harder keeping Farage out of the GE2015 leaders' debates.
Alternatively, keeping Clegg in them - after all, realistically there are only two possible PMs. Farage & Clegg have already had some airtime, the argument will go...
Ed Miliband is the only leader of a major political party who has not participated in a televised leaders' debate with opponents from other parties, I think.
The polling after the debate was pretty much in line with what I thought, based on the polling after the 1st debate. Farage, far from perfect, but certainly sharper tonight than in the first debate, whereas Clegg's arguments were largely re-heated tired arguments, and the whole 7% claim was frankly risible in the extreme.
I also thought that Farage very cleverly played the anti-establishment card as well, and Clegg failed with an open goal opportunity over Putin, despite the best efforts of Dimbleby to skewer Farage on the subject. Farage appeared far more human too, the Nick Farage moment helping him out in the debate.
All in all a solid night's work for Farage, and a pretty bad one for Clegg.
Is there anyone who now seriously argues that Clegg isn't a dangerous, superficial cozener? Incredibly, the man is a Minister of the Crown. God help us all.
Is there anyone who now seriously argues that Clegg isn't a dangerous, superficial cozener? Incredibly, the man is a Minister of the Crown. God help us all.
It's going to be much harder keeping Farage out of the GE2015 leaders' debates.
Alternatively, keeping Clegg in them - after all, realistically there are only two possible PMs. Farage & Clegg have already had some airtime, the argument will go...
I find that unconvincing personally. The criteria by which they permitted Clegg to be involved last time are still pertinent, so if he was allowed last time he should be allowed this time. With Farage it is trickier as by one crucial measure, previous GE electoral performance, UKIP still do not come close to being deserving of a place, but on the other hand it would be very hard to argue that the UKIP vote will not play a major role in determining who the winning side is, and so add that, their number of MEPs and polling numbers, and it is easier to argue for their inclusion.
Anything Cameron can do to avoid it I am sure he will do. I give Cameron a pass on a lot of things, but he gives the impression of quaking in his boots whenever his backbenchers mention Europe.
Mr. Llama, rejected? After the Second Punic War, he became leader of Carthage.
That's the difference between Hannibal and Caesar. After defeat, Hannibal became more powerful. After victory, Caesar was killed by his own side.
Incidentally, have you read Theodore Dodge's biographies of Alexander, Hannibal and for Caesar].
Farage = Morris dancer
Clegg = Morris Dancer
Mr. Brooke, that is a very unkind and inaccurate remark. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Mr. Dancer was making a valid point, he was talking b0llocks admittedly (if Hannibal was so good how come he had to leg it from Carthage, take work as a mecenary etc etc.), but he was making a serious point.
I shall add your recommendations to my reading list, but unless they are available on Kindle it will be a long time before I'll be able to buy those books (we are back to the "one in one out" lock down again).
haha Mr Llama since I have been down here in the SE ( Ashford ) I have lost all sense of shame. I have spent the days picking gold off the streets and will use it to train as feline vet when I shall charge extortionate fees to fund my huge house which will appreciate at 30% a month. Then I shall buy Poland.
*Sniggers*
Don't forget, if you are heading this way to visit Mrs. Brooke's old stamping ground do stop off for a small, sweet, sherry.
Regrettably Mr L I'm not heading your way this week. Mrs B wants to go to Canterbury and then it's back home Friday. But since I'm hoping to complete on a deal Monday and there are customers down here I could well be back. I have however enjoyed Tenterden and Cranbrook and popping in to vineyards. Given another few decades you could soon be civilised :-)
Fair enough. If you are going to Canterbury I do hope you visit the Cathedral. For my money it is one of the most magnificent buildings in Europe and one of the top three in England (a toss-up between it and Durham for second place to the Abbey).
I think it quite likely Cameron will scuttle the debates altogether rather than give Farage a platform.
Risk an empty chair with a 3 way PM debate between Miliband, Clegg and Farage? I think he'll be forced into it. Are the SNP still considering running candidates in England to get in the PM debates?
The best Question tonight for me was the one which said what's the point in voting for any parties at a GE knowing a lot of the rules/policies coming from Brussels,it just destroyed clegg's argument in that one Question.
And Farage's argument was demolished by his love-in for despots of all varieties.
What utter crap, did you actually read and understand what he said or just follow the headlines?
Yes, I did read, and understand it. Unfortunately, to use your colourful phrase, it's a load of utter crap.
I'd ask if you actually read and understood it, but I fear that anything other than UKIP-love is impossible for you ...
(And before you say I'm a UKIP- or Farage- hater, look at my reaction to last week's debate).
It's going to be much harder keeping Farage out of the GE2015 leaders' debates.
Alternatively, keeping Clegg in them - after all, realistically there are only two possible PMs. Farage & Clegg have already had some airtime, the argument will go...
It's going to be much harder keeping Farage out of the GE2015 leaders' debates.
Alternatively, keeping Clegg in them - after all, realistically there are only two possible PMs. Farage & Clegg have already had some airtime, the argument will go...
If Farage can comprehensively muller Clegg, then Milliband (and Cam) is (are) toast. It will be a joint effort by Cam Milli and Clegg to exclude Farage - they can all see potential to suffer if he is included now.
Really bad situation for the existing 'big'parties. Protecting themselves, excluding others, all outcomes are good for Farage, it would seem tonight.
Just to add, I'm no Kipper, but it would appear he has taken a leap and jump tonight in debate, instilling fear in opponents and giving them all a real headache for the debates, include him is a risk, exclude him is an elitist risk.
Ed Miliband is the only leader of a major political party who has not participated in a televised leaders' debate with opponents from other parties, I think.
Given neither of Cameron or Clegg has benefited from their debates (despite Cleggasm) it looks like Miliband is just playing the smart game!
Mr. kle4, I've only played one of the ROTK games. Read the books, though. Bloody enormous. Fairly good, but Outlaws of the Marsh is far more entertaining.
Now that is a big surprise to me. I would not be surprised in general if UKIP's vote was less among the young, but Farage personally and during this debate I felt it would be fairly cross demographic in being clearly him winning, though I have left that demo myself in the past few years, so clearly I'm out of touch with it now.
To be honest, and I know I sound like a UKIP spinner here and I apologise, I was amazed that Farage won that age groups vote, even when I knew the polls had called it so massively for him
UKIP preferred to Lib Dems by 18-24 year olds in any poll, is incredible
When Nick Clegg says he "loves" Britain... I just don't believe him. Not at all. I suspect he quite likes parts of Britain, and is excited by the dynamism and diversity of London, but he could be just as happy living in Paris, Amsterdam or Barcelona.
There is nothing wrong with this. Politicians don't have to be patriots. But the inauthenticity is offputting when they claim to be patriots, and Clegg is the most inauthentic of all. He oozes europhile loftiness, elitism and entitlement.
If ever we do get a vote, and people like Clegg are pressing the cause for IN, my guess is that we will vote OUT, out of sheer annoyance.
+1
I've been saying for some time that the BOO'ers arguments to leave the EU need to be on firmer ground. The same is true for the Europhiles' arguments.
I've no idea which way I'd vote in a referendum. Neither side is convincing.
I wonder if this will tempt Farage to stand in Hallam.
Farage is too smart and focused on the Ashdown strategy of local strongholds to make this mistake, though I agree he'll be tempted tonight over a drink.
Mr. Llama, rejected? After the Second Punic War, he became leader of Carthage.
That's the difference between Hannibal and Caesar. After defeat, Hannibal became more powerful. After victory, Caesar was killed by his own side.
Incidentally, have you read Theodore Dodge's biographies of Alexander, Hannibal and Caesar? They're well-worth acquiring, but be certain you get a full book. I last perused Amazon for them when Mr. Burdett, formerly of this parish, enquired about such things on Twitter and was irked to see abridged versions (not clearly marked as such) on sale. [They should be just under 700 pages for the first two, and a little over 800, I think, for Caesar].
Farage = Morris dancer
Clegg = Morris Dancer
Mr. Brooke, that is a very unkind and inaccurate remark. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Mr. Dancer was making a valid point, he was talking b0llocks admittedly (if Hannibal was so good how come he had to leg it from Carthage, take work as a mecenary etc etc.), but he was making a serious point.
I shall add your recommendations to my reading list, but unless they are available on Kindle it will be a long time before I'll be able to buy those books (we are back to the "one in one out" lock down again).
haha Mr Llama since I have been down here in the SE ( Ashford ) I have lost all sense of shame. I have spent the days picking gold off the streets and will use it to train as feline vet when I shall charge extortionate fees to fund my huge house which will appreciate at 30% a month. Then I shall buy Poland.
Oi! That's my strategy! Go and nick someone else's!
Is there anyone who now seriously argues that Clegg isn't a dangerous, superficial cozener? Incredibly, the man is a Minister of the Crown. God help us all.
*waves* Hi there.
And here. The LDs certainly do not have my vote secured for the GE (in truth I'm even more uncertain than I was in 2010 when I think I was the only person in the country who did vote while hoping it led to a LD-Con Coalition), and Clegg deserves plenty of stick for the things that he has done and said, but I just don't see how he is as egregiously terrible in his embodiment of non-partisan political behaviours as he is deemed to be. For better and worse, he has guts at least.
The public want all four men to debate in 2015 and won't like it if any of them don't show.
Do we include the Greens? Or Respect?
No, because they are minor parties who have no chance to impact the final result in a meaningful manner. UKIP are polling as the 3rd party in Britain, and right this moment are a major party on votes who could change the result in dozens or more constituencies.
I can't see the likes of Sky News letting the debates slide. They'd empty chair any leader who chickened out. It's tricky for all the leaders, really, apart from Farage. Cameron is good at them, but has everything to lose. Milliband could struggle at a set piece toe to toe, but if he put in a decent performance, it'd do him a power of good. As for Clegg? Well, I can't see anybody agreeing with Nick.
6% lead.....Yep, this place will be full of polling squirrels tonight. There is more chance of people posting about the shape of cornflakes through history as there is of posts on this poll.
PS. Ed you really are crap, your 35% strategy Hodges exclusively told everyone about is utterly useless unless you can actually get down to 35%.
If I hadn't already maxed this bet out ages ago I'd be depositing all I could tonight to get on this, Clegg being longer than 1/10 to win Sheffield Hallam is insanity! If PP don't change their 1/7 by the election I'll take that too, frankly.
Now that is a big surprise to me. I would not be surprised in general if UKIP's vote was less among the young, but Farage personally and during this debate I felt it would be fairly cross demographic in being clearly him winning, though I have left that demo myself in the past few years, so clearly I'm out of touch with it now.
To be honest, and I know I sound like a UKIP spinner here and I apologise, I was amazed that Farage won that age groups vote, even when I knew the polls had called it so massively for him
UKIP preferred to Lib Dems by 18-24 year olds in any poll, is incredible
Mr. Llama, rejected? After the Second Punic War, he became leader of Carthage.
That's the difference between Hannibal and Caesar. After defeat, Hannibal became more powerful. After victory, Caesar was killed by his own side.
Incidentally, have you read Theodore Dodge's biographies of Alexander, Hannibal and for Caesar].
Farage = Morris dancer
Clegg = Morris Dancer
Mr. Brooke, that is a very unkind and inaccurate remark. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Mr. Dancer was making a valid point, he was talking b0llocks admittedly (if Hannibal was so good how come he had to leg it from Carthage, take work as a mecenary etc etc.), but he was making a serious point.
I shall add your recommendations to my reading list, but unless they are available on Kindle it will be a long time before I'll be able to buy those books (we are back to the "one in one out" lock down again).
haha Mr Llama since I have been down here in the SE ( Ashford ) I have lost all sense of e house which will appreciate at 30% a month. Then I shall buy Poland.
*Sniggers*
Don't forget, if you are heading this way to visit Mrs. Brooke's old stamping ground do stop off for a small, sweet, sherry.
Regrettably Mr L I'm not heading your way this week. Mrs B wants to go to Canterbury and be back. I have however enjoyed Tenterden and Cranbrook and popping in to vineyards. Given another few decades you could soon be civilised :-)
Fair enough. If you are going to Canterbury I do hope you visit the Cathedral. For my money it is one of the most magnificent buildings in Europe and one of the top three in England (a toss-up between it and Durham for second place to the Abbey).
Mr L Ive done Durham, York and Canterbury cathedrals all before. generally though I tend to find the smaller churches much more spiritual. Though of the cathedrals I enjoyed the Anglican at Cape Town most. It's about the size of a small UK one, but when I visited I had the whole place to myself for about 20 minutes, very moving in its own way.
If I hadn't already maxed this bet out ages ago I'd be depositing all I could tonight to get on this, Clegg being longer than 1/10 to win Sheffield Hallam is insanity! If PP don't change their 1/7 by the election I'll take that too, frankly.
I've backed the SNP at 4-1 in Inverness, bacing against Danny.
The public want all four men to debate in 2015 and won't like it if any of them don't show.
Do we include the Greens? Or Respect?
No, because they are minor parties who have no chance to impact the final result in a meaningful manner. UKIP are polling as the 3rd party in Britain, and right this moment are a major party on votes who could change the result in dozens or more constituencies.
Or Yes, to reduce them to pointless and harmless multidiretional chats, thus protecting Milliband and Cameron
The public want all four men to debate in 2015 and won't like it if any of them don't show.
Do we include the Greens? Or Respect?
I think there are reasonable grounds by which one could include UKIP while excluding the others. In terms of national vote share (or at least projected share this time - I cannot see them getting less than 5%), how many candidates they field and other electoral successes, UKIP are in a separate category than the Greens and Respect. Granted, those two have one MP each, but as parties they will not have an impact on the outcome of the GE because they only focus on a few specific areas (though the Greens do put up a reasonable number of candidates). UKIP will have an impact on the outcome even if, as seems likely, they win no seats.
SNP and PC? They choose not to stand outside of single parts of the larger nation, so on that ground it's reasonable to exclude, but on the 'impact on the outcome' measure they do (more so the SNP than PC). But as they only wish to speak to a single part of the nation, rather than a message to all voters, I think it is reasonable to exclude them (and I don't think they want inclusion in all honesty - separate debates for each nation would be fine - no wasted time talking to areas where they have no candidates - when they can use the exclusion card to good effect at the same time)
The public want all four men to debate in 2015 and won't like it if any of them don't show.
Do we include the Greens? Or Respect?
No, because they are minor parties who have no chance to impact the final result in a meaningful manner. UKIP are polling as the 3rd party in Britain, and right this moment are a major party on votes who could change the result in dozens or more constituencies.
Dozens of constituencies: so we include SNP and Plaid Cymru?
But seriously, it's a murky one. Cameron, you'd think, would only agree to Farage ( zero MP's at present don't forget) if he can entice Labour/ Lib Dem voters with Respect/ Green etc.
Mr. Llama, rejected? After the Second Punic War, he became leader of Carthage.
That's the difference between Hannibal and Caesar. After defeat, Hannibal became more powerful. After victory, Caesar was killed by his own side.
Incidentally, have you read Theodore Dodge's biographies of Alexander, Hannibal and Caesar? They're well-worth acquiring, but be certain you get a full book. I last perused Amazon for them when Mr. Burdett, formerly of this parish, enquired about such things on Twitter and was irked to see abridged versions (not clearly marked as such) on sale. [They should be just under 700 pages for the first two, and a little over 800, I think, for Caesar].
Farage = Morris dancer
Clegg = Morris Dancer
Mr. Brooke, that is a very unkind and inaccurate remark. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Mr. Dancer was making a valid point, he was talking b0llocks admittedly (if Hannibal was so good how come he had to leg it from Carthage, take work as a mecenary etc etc.), but he was making a serious point.
I shall add your recommendations to my reading list, but unless they are available on Kindle it will be a long time before I'll be able to buy those books (we are back to the "one in one out" lock down again).
haha Mr Llama since I have been down here in the SE ( Ashford ) I have lost all sense of shame. I have spent the days picking gold off the streets and will use it to train as feline vet when I shall charge extortionate fees to fund my huge house which will appreciate at 30% a month. Then I shall buy Poland.
Oi! That's my strategy! Go and nick someone else's!
Charles as a banker you're hopeless, you're actually trying to work for your money ;-)
If I hadn't already maxed this bet out ages ago I'd be depositing all I could tonight to get on this, Clegg being longer than 1/10 to win Sheffield Hallam is insanity! If PP don't change their 1/7 by the election I'll take that too, frankly.
I've backed the SNP at 4-1 in Inverness, bacing against Danny.
But Hallam is safe enough. 15000ish majority.
The clincher in Hallam is the council elections since 2010, LD vote holding up very well in actual elections there.
Personally I do quite like Clegg and respect his decision (which must have been tough) to enter the coalition with the Conservatives for the stability of the nation - Though let's remember the Lib-Dems have got a heck of a lot out of being in government, so it's not all one way traffic.
But boy did he take a spanking from Farage tonight. And it was inevitable when he made the challenge to have the debate with Farage that this would probably happen.
He now own's whatever happens to the Lib-Dems in the Euro Election lock, stock and barrel. The fall-out might not be pretty.
The decision by Cameron and Miliband to keep the hell out of it looks like a good one tonight...
BBC News led with the Putin stuff about Farage.... even cutting off Farage's full quote! Then we had the UKIP red skin leaflet. 2 attacks on Farage. Then followed by a more neutral portrayal of immigration. 2 nil against Farage. Oh dear.
BBC news at 10 using all Clegg's best moments and cutting off Farage to alter his meaning. Veyr dubious editing which would leave most people wondering at the polls. And now they've glossed over the polls in preference to randomly selected (i;m sure) talking heads from the audience.
As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?
It could have been worse: you could have ended up with Huhne.
True. But at least it would all be sorted now and we'd have Farron who isn't part of the PPE love-in!
I'm currently writing a series of counter-factuals, of which "Huhne wins the 2007 leadership election" is one (anyone know a good publisher, by the way?).
Without giving the game wholly away, I think the result of the 2010 general election would have been materially different with Huhne at the helm. You can't just slot Huhne into a Con-LD coalition government in place of Clegg.
Do you mean the LD's would have done significantly differently in terms of seats (If so how differently?) or that a Cameron/Huhne dialogue on coalition would have been different? Would a LD party with say 70 seats have been in a better position? And, after all, Huhne was part of the negotiating team!
You'll have to wait until it's published. ('If', I suppose, technically).
Let's see how the BBC 10 o'clock news tries to spin it against Farage and for Clegg
The Beeb, Dimblebore and Robinson have been particularly embarrassing tonight I have to say. They need to learn to stand the f**k back and stop pushing their own narrative because they're struggling badly and it's not even particularly subtle.
6% lead.....Yep, this place will be full of polling squirrels tonight. There is more chance of people posting about the shape of cornflakes through history as there is of posts on this poll.
PS. Ed you really are crap, your 35% strategy Hodges exclusively told everyone about is utterly useless unless you can actually get down to 35%.
Seeing as most on here are giving it the full squirrel treatment. Is the 6% Labour lead an outlier, or the sign of things to come? Is 6 the new 1 or 2?
Utterly bizzarely unbalanced from news at 10 then. Anyone who did not watch the debate would come away mystified that Farage won, if they even picked up that he did from the coverage.
We keep on being told by OGH and others that Europe is low down on the list of voters' concerns. Yet we are taking this debate - which was meant to be about Europe - as a sign that Clegg has had it.
There is a long way to go on this. On some things I side with Farage - I would quite like a say about our position in Europe; I'm 41 and not had one. On others I find Farage a hideous beast - for instance on Putin.
It ain't over.
One thing is for sure, an EU referendum just receded further into the future. No way will the LDs or the Labour party ever call one, after Clegg's painful drubbing tonight. A vote for OUT looks way too likely.
Europhile Tories must also be looking on with great anxiety.
I doubt Angela Merkel was watching BBC2 tonight but arguably it does strengthen Cameron's hand in getting a better deal if he does go into renegotiations, assuming the rest of the EU wants Britain to stay in. Because the only way In is going to win is on the basis that something really meaningful has been achieved.
Mr. Llama, rejected? After the Second Punic War, he became leader of Carthage.
That's the difference between Hannibal and Caesar. After defeat, Hannibal became more powerful. After victory, Caesar was killed by his own side.
Incidentally, have you read Theodore Dodge's biographies of Alexander, Hannibal and Caesar? They're well-worth acquiring, but be certain you get a full book. I last perused Amazon for them when Mr. Burdett, formerly of this parish, enquired about such things on Twitter and was irked to see abridged versions (not clearly marked as such) on sale. [They should be just under 700 pages for the first two, and a little over 800, I think, for Caesar].
Farage = Morris dancer
Clegg = Morris Dancer
Mr. Brooke, that is a very unkind and inaccurate remark. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Mr. Dancer was making a valid point, he was talking b0llocks admittedly (if Hannibal was so good how come he had to leg it from Carthage, take work as a mecenary etc etc.), but he was making a serious point.
I shall add your recommendations to my reading list, but unless they are available on Kindle it will be a long time before I'll be able to buy those books (we are back to the "one in one out" lock down again).
haha Mr Llama since I have been down here in the SE ( Ashford ) I have lost all sense of shame. I have spent the days picking gold off the streets and will use it to train as feline vet when I shall charge extortionate fees to fund my huge house which will appreciate at 30% a month. Then I shall buy Poland.
Oi! That's my strategy! Go and nick someone else's!
Charles as a banker you're hopeless, you're actually trying to work for your money ;-)
Wrong Idea !
Nah - I work because I enjoy it. My key criteria for deciding if someone should be a client is whether I enjoy spending time with them...
The BBC ain't covering themselves in glory tonight. By any measure, and looking at the polls, or twitter and other internet/social media, Clegg got a shoeing. The BBC don't appear to want to say anything too nasty about Clegg. Looks a bit meh!, to be honest.
Utterly bizzarely unbalanced from news at 10 then. Anyone who did not watch the debate would come away mystified that Farage won, if they even picked up that he did from the coverage.
But the questions were slanted in Farage's favour?
Seeing as most on here are giving it the full squirrel treatment. Is the 6% Labour lead an outlier, or the sign of things to come? Is 6 the new 1 or 2?
Impossible to say without at least another couple of polls
BBC news at 10 using all Clegg's best moments and cutting off Farage to alter his meaning. Veyr dubious editing which would leave most people wondering at the polls. And now they've glossed over the polls in preference to randomly selected (i;m sure) talking heads from the audience.
Seeing as most on here are giving it the full squirrel treatment. Is the 6% Labour lead an outlier, or the sign of things to come.
If it's the sign of things to come,never mind nick clegg under pressure,cameron better watch his back.
Feck that, I would have white finger with all the BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING I would be posting. Don't worry, Dave has the electoral master strategist called Gideon helping him, and as the 2010 election showed, no one does electoral master strategy like Gideon.....oh, wait there.
Utterly bizzarely unbalanced from news at 10 then. Anyone who did not watch the debate would come away mystified that Farage won, if they even picked up that he did from the coverage.
But the questions were slanted in Farage's favour?
The BBC unbalanced both ways?
The facts are slanted in his favour too - if those were they questions they got from people, #askClegg should be able to cope without them needing to try and hide the result on the news.
Mr. Llama, rejected? After the Second Punic War, he became leader of Carthage.
That's the difference between Hannibal and Caesar. After defeat, Hannibal became more powerful. After victory, Caesar was killed by his own side.
Incidentally, have you read Theodore Dodge's biographies of Alexander, Hannibal and Caesar? They're well-worth acquiring, but be certain you get a full book. I last perused Amazon for them when Mr. Burdett, formerly of this parish, enquired about such things on Twitter and was irked to see abridged versions (not clearly marked as such) on sale. [They should be just under 700 pages for the first two, and a little over 800, I think, for Caesar].
Farage = Morris dancer
Clegg = Morris Dancer
Mr. Brooke, that is a very unkind and inaccurate remark. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Mr. Dancer was making a valid point, he was talking b0llocks admittedly (if Hannibal was so good how come he had to leg it from Carthage, take work as a mecenary etc etc.), but he was making a serious point.
I shall add your recommendations to my reading list, but unless they are available on Kindle it will be a long time before I'll be able to buy those books (we are back to the "one in one out" lock down again).
haha Mr Llama since I have beense which will appreciate at 30% a month. Then I shall buy Poland.
Oi! That's my strategy! Go and nick someone else's!
Charles as a banker you're hopeless, you're actually trying to work for your money ;-)
Wrong Idea !
Nah - I work because I enjoy it. My key criteria for deciding if someone should be a client is whether I enjoy spending time with them...
Eminently sensible Charles. I've always had the view that if you aren't enjoying work you should do a different job.
I wonder if TV interviewers will pose those questions to Cameron and Miliband in the run up to the Euros. I'm not sure I've heard Eurosceptic questions asked so frankly before on TV. It would make sense to put them to Cameron and Miliband to see what their view is.
I think that Farage's reasonable and excellent handling of the questions and the overwhelming support for his answers makes them all the more legitimate. These debates have widened the range of questions that will be asked by interviewers of politicians about the EU. Farage answered them with a straight bat. Hit some of them for six. Over to messieurs Cameron and Miliband.
Utterly bizzarely unbalanced from news at 10 then. Anyone who did not watch the debate would come away mystified that Farage won, if they even picked up that he did from the coverage.
But the questions were slanted in Farage's favour?
The BBC unbalanced both ways?
Of course! An organization the size of the BBC can be biased in multiple directions at once.
I would agree the questions were more favourable to Farage, mostly just in how they were worded/implying things. Nothing sinister in it i'm sure, but sometimes things just work out in one person's favour more.
Seeing as most on here are giving it the full squirrel treatment. Is the 6% Labour lead an outlier, or the sign of things to come? Is 6 the new 1 or 2?
It's nothing to do with foreign grey vermin, YouGov just isn't important tonight.
When Nick Clegg says he "loves" Britain... I just don't believe him. Not at all. I suspect he quite likes parts of Britain, and is excited by the dynamism and diversity of London, but he could be just as happy living in Paris, Amsterdam or Barcelona.
That would be precisely right about me, but then I don't pretend anything else - I mildly like most places, basically. Clegg may still have correctly identified a niche market to improve on the current 10% for the LibDems - 27% who thought he won is more than 10. But he hasn't been very helpful for the cause he was supposedly supporting.
6% lead.....Yep, this place will be full of polling squirrels tonight. There is more chance of people posting about the shape of cornflakes through history as there is of posts on this poll.
I don't know much about the shape of cornflakes through history but those in my box of TESCO Everyday Value cornflakes are noticeably smaller in size and, perhaps, more consistantly oval than those of the leading brands. But they taste OK - and you can't really go wrong at 31p for a 500g box.
I thought tonight was a much clearer win for Nigel Farage. Nick Clegg was all over the place. I think Clegg's honesty in particular has taken a real hit. He has repeated the three million jobs lie multiple time in these debates, which even the man that wrote the report it comes from has criticized. Clegg also keeps on claiming the EU is the "world's largest economy", which is nonsense: if you go with countries, it's the USA, and if you go with economic blocs, NAFTA is bigger. He also said EU migrants that came here would have to work, which is clearly untrue. If you want to come and beg on the streets, you have every right to do so. After three months, you can claim benefits.
What was most obviously dishonest, however, was Clegg repeatedly misrepresenting Farage's position. He said that Farage had claimed almost 500 million would come here from Eastern Europe, when Farage had only said, correctly, that that number had the right to come here. That was just one of a number where he knows full well what Farage had said and then chose to lie about it.
Comments
The killer is 42% of LD voters choosing Farage.
That'll show 'em.
In general PR with smallish regions produce not very exciting changes!
Edit: no idea why it's showing your comment twice.
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/uk-general-election/next-general-election-constituency-betting-e216773182-m227475750
Accused Farage of wanting to turn the clock back to the time when he opened the batting for England.
Did anyone mention this morning's CIPS/Markit PMIs for the UK Construction Sector?
The three months Construction PMIs for Q1 2014 have all read in the sixties:
Jan 64.6
Feb 62.6
Mar 62.5
March marks the 11th month in a row of sector growth (i.e. with PMIs above 50). Rates of Residential and Commercial construction both grew in March but Civil Engineering fell back from its flood boosted high in February. New work across all sectors increased but at its lowest rate since last September. Sector employment growth was at its second highest since August 2007.
Twelve month confidence levels were at record levels, with 59% of respondents forecasting a rise in output over the following year and only 5% a reduction.
Bad news? None really, but some warning signs that the recessionary slack in the sector is nearing its end. Input prices rose sharply, raw material delivery lead times extended and sub-contractor availability declined.
So if building is your career future, now is the time to enter the market. And if you are already a builder, get out of DyedWoolie's pub (at least during the day)!
St. George is leading the March of the Builders to victory.
I also thought that Farage very cleverly played the anti-establishment card as well, and Clegg failed with an open goal opportunity over Putin, despite the best efforts of Dimbleby to skewer Farage on the subject. Farage appeared far more human too, the Nick Farage moment helping him out in the debate.
All in all a solid night's work for Farage, and a pretty bad one for Clegg.
Hi there.
Anything Cameron can do to avoid it I am sure he will do. I give Cameron a pass on a lot of things, but he gives the impression of quaking in his boots whenever his backbenchers mention Europe.
I'd ask if you actually read and understood it, but I fear that anything other than UKIP-love is impossible for you ...
(And before you say I'm a UKIP- or Farage- hater, look at my reaction to last week's debate).
Really bad situation for the existing 'big'parties. Protecting themselves, excluding others, all outcomes are good for Farage, it would seem tonight.
Just to add, I'm no Kipper, but it would appear he has taken a leap and jump tonight in debate, instilling fear in opponents and giving them all a real headache for the debates, include him is a risk, exclude him is an elitist risk.
UKIP preferred to Lib Dems by 18-24 year olds in any poll, is incredible
I've been saying for some time that the BOO'ers arguments to leave the EU need to be on firmer ground. The same is true for the Europhiles' arguments.
I've no idea which way I'd vote in a referendum. Neither side is convincing.
Basil on hearing of another PB polling crossover prediction:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4ONxIzytXE
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up two to six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up two to six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Hmph.
http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/28/man-chops-off-his-own-hand-with-a-home-made-guillotine-and-is-now-threatening-to-amputate-his-arm-4681668/
Farage 2/1 to be involved in the GE2015 debates
UKIP 11/10 to win most Euro votes (But only 4/6 to beat the Tories?????)
Lads have also cut the Kippers to score between 10-15 in GE 2015 2s from 3s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up two to six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
And the good news just keeps on coming!
PS. Ed you really are crap, your 35% strategy Hodges exclusively told everyone about is utterly useless unless you can actually get down to 35%.
But Hallam is safe enough. 15000ish majority.
SNP and PC? They choose not to stand outside of single parts of the larger nation, so on that ground it's reasonable to exclude, but on the 'impact on the outcome' measure they do (more so the SNP than PC). But as they only wish to speak to a single part of the nation, rather than a message to all voters, I think it is reasonable to exclude them (and I don't think they want inclusion in all honesty - separate debates for each nation would be fine - no wasted time talking to areas where they have no candidates - when they can use the exclusion card to good effect at the same time)
But seriously, it's a murky one. Cameron, you'd think, would only agree to Farage ( zero MP's at present don't forget) if he can entice Labour/ Lib Dem voters with Respect/ Green etc.
Wrong Idea !
Nor is it going to change.
But boy did he take a spanking from Farage tonight. And it was inevitable when he made the challenge to have the debate with Farage that this would probably happen.
He now own's whatever happens to the Lib-Dems in the Euro Election lock, stock and barrel. The fall-out might not be pretty.
The decision by Cameron and Miliband to keep the hell out of it looks like a good one tonight...
Then we had the UKIP red skin leaflet. 2 attacks on Farage. Then followed by a more neutral portrayal of immigration. 2 nil against Farage.
Oh dear.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8700
After this performance worth a punt?
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/European-Parliament-Elections/2014-UK-Euro-Parliamentary-Elections/Politics-N-1z140x5Z1z140wwZ1z141ne/
The BBC unbalanced both ways?
I think that Farage's reasonable and excellent handling of the questions and the overwhelming support for his answers makes them all the more legitimate. These debates have widened the range of questions that will be asked by interviewers of politicians about the EU. Farage answered them with a straight bat. Hit some of them for six. Over to messieurs Cameron and Miliband.
I would agree the questions were more favourable to Farage, mostly just in how they were worded/implying things. Nothing sinister in it i'm sure, but sometimes things just work out in one person's favour more.
I have no comment to make on the poll.
What was most obviously dishonest, however, was Clegg repeatedly misrepresenting Farage's position. He said that Farage had claimed almost 500 million would come here from Eastern Europe, when Farage had only said, correctly, that that number had the right to come here. That was just one of a number where he knows full well what Farage had said and then chose to lie about it.