How will the Tories react to all this? I know, I know 'PM's got better things to do/debate between minor politicians/etc etc' but the Tory backbenchers are full of whiny children when it comes to Europe, and a beaming Farage is...well I was going to say it's the last thing they want to see, but actually it's the thing they want to see the most, either out of latent UKIPism or in the hope it forces Cameron and co to tack right (it'll win them the election you see, somehow) and it's been a few weeks since a good Tory rebellion story at least.
Clegg on 27 and 31 after Farage is it seems by most assessors the winner, when with a moer even opinion last time he was on 37, is while not great, nor surprising. Once again it all comes down to if the LD base and maybe a few others can be persuaded by his unpopular pro-EU message - that is, if the minority can be rallied, as he already knew the majority opinion was not one he was going to win, good performance or not.
If UKIP don't win the EP elections now it will really bring home to all of us lot how little even the big events in politics move votes. I can't believe they won't pick up some momentum from this performance.
But, in the grand scheme of things, will it move any votes?
I very much doubt it. Its a bit like those leaflets that come through the door and people who coming knocking while I am busy and all those other aspects of the "ground war" that people on here get so excited about. Anoraks may take an interest but nothing much changes.
And the cliche begins. Very few people care about politics and political events of any stripe, even the most prominent of events, so to trot out such an argument is useless, and in any case irrelevant as the idea was to gain some media attention and hoepfully add to the political narrative of reporting which does filter through, to some degree, to everyone.
In sincerely hope I can refrain from making that point again, as I suspect we shall hear more of the 'no-one watched it/cared about it' argument in the hours and day ahead (I say day, i don't think this has legs to get attention to the weekend).
But, in the grand scheme of things, will it move any votes?
I very much doubt it. Its a bit like those leaflets that come through the door and people who coming knocking while I am busy and all those other aspects of the "ground war" that people on here get so excited about. Anoraks may take an interest but nothing much changes.
Ground war is scientifically proven to drive turnout up.
How will the Tories react to all this? I know, I know 'PM's got better things to do/debate between minor politicians/etc etc' but the Tory backbenchers are full of whiny children when it comes to Europe, and a beaming Farage is...well I was going to say it's the last thing they want to see, but actually it's the thing they want to see the most, either out of latent UKIPism or in the hope it forces Cameron and co to tack right (it'll win them the election you see, somehow) and it's been a few weeks since a good Tory rebellion story at least.
The most gullible tory eurosceptics will pretend it didn't happen as usual. However, those less than convinced by Cammie's Cast Iron Pledges and EU 'master strategy' will indeed have yet more ammunition to throw at the fop chicken if the Euros and locals are fairly dire for the tories. I too doubt they'll keep quiet forever somehow.
As I've posted before, I really, really don't see Clegg leading the LD's into the GE. Especially if the Euros turn out the way they look as they're going to.
Even someone as ungrateful and unappreciative as Cameron must realise he owes Clegg and is duty-bound to find him something suitable.
But, in the grand scheme of things, will it move any votes?
I think it will. I now expect to see UKIP ahead in the EC polls. The key question could be whether the LDs get any sympathy vote to keep all their MEPs? Or will it be a melt down which could force a LD Leadership crisis? The common media view was that Clegg had nothing to lose going into these debates....
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m Lib Dems' only brightside, despite the even bigger thumping: "We've had an hour's prime time telly," says Clegg spinner #europedebate
But, in the grand scheme of things, will it move any votes?
I very much doubt it. Its a bit like those leaflets that come through the door and people who coming knocking while I am busy and all those other aspects of the "ground war" that people on here get so excited about. Anoraks may take an interest but nothing much changes.
Ground war is scientifically proven to drive turnout up.
I don't doubt it - for many it will have no effect, but the impact of physically receiving or seeing material or persons involved in a campaign is bound to make people mroe conscious of an election to some degree - but to what extent if you might have some broad figures on memory?
As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?
It could have been worse: you could have ended up with Huhne.
If UKIP don't win the EP elections now it will really bring home to all of us lot how little even the big events in politics move votes. I can't believe they won't pick up some momentum from this performance.
As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?
It could have been worse: you could have ended up with Huhne.
True. But at least it would all be sorted now and we'd have Farron who isn't part of the PPE love-in!
But, in the grand scheme of things, will it move any votes?
I very much doubt it. Its a bit like those leaflets that come through the door and people who coming knocking while I am busy and all those other aspects of the "ground war" that people on here get so excited about. Anoraks may take an interest but nothing much changes.
Ground war is scientifically proven to drive turnout up.
Really? I'll take your word for it, how much by?. How many votes does it change? Does anyone read a leaflet that comes through the door and say to themselves, "By golly, they are right. I shall vote for these people instead of the party I was thinking of voting for"? How many people actually read the leaflets?
And the cliche begins. Very few people care about politics and political events of any stripe, even the most prominent of events, so to trot out such an argument is useless, and in any case irrelevant as the idea was to gain some media attention and hoepfully add to the political narrative of reporting which does filter through, to some degree, to everyone.
In sincerely hope I can refrain from making that point again, as I suspect we shall hear more of the 'no-one watched it/cared about it' argument in the hours and day ahead (I say day, i don't think this has legs to get attention to the weekend).
Of course. It would be ludicrous for little Ed and Cammie's spinners to then claim that a couple of minutes of campaign highlights on the news will shift things but a couple of hours of prime time has no effect. It all matters.
Nigel Farage's answers were always direct and easy to understand".
Farage's great skill is to convince the logically challenged that he is not a politician.
Your mistake is to assume that the word politician means merely someone engaged in democratic public administration, rather than recognise the reality that it's actually a short hand for slimy lying bastards for most ordinary people.
As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?
It could have been worse: you could have ended up with Huhne.
True. But at least it would all be sorted now and we'd have Farron who isn't part of the PPE love-in!
Farron always appears like a frog with a finger up his election predictor.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m Lib Dems' only brightside, despite the even bigger thumping: "We've had an hour's prime time telly," says Clegg spinner #europedebate
It's also true. Did you seriously think Clegg, even had he put in a barnstorming performance, could have won a debate given his personal unpopularity and that the view he represents is about as popular as he is? He was speaking for and to a minority of voters, with the hope that if he won he might gain a few more on his side.
As it is I imagine his team are a little disappointed - and should ignore people who tell him to be more passionate and less polished next time such an event occurs - that they did not capitalise on the debate as they might have hoped, at least the LD position is getting some airing in the media circles. Will it save their MEPs? Possibly it might help, but it won't have cost those MEPs anything either, so no matter how bad Clegg did or didn't do (he had a fairly good bit on business in the middle on either side of a Farage win sandwich), he and the LDs are in fact not likely to be worse off as a result of this, so at worst they've gained nothing from it.
Dimbo from the Independant seems to think Farage won because people love Farage and are blind to his obviously repugnant foreign policy stance. Cognitive dissonance, you have found your muse.
Nigel Farage's answers were always direct and easy to understand".
Farage's great skill is to convince the logically challenged that he is not a politician.
Your mistake is to assume that the word politician means merely someone engaged in democratic public administration, rather than recognise the reality that it's actually a short hand for slimy lying bastards for most ordinary people.
But I accept your definition without question. Politicians are unquestionably "slimy lying bastards".
It is the illogical leap which excludes Farage from the class that I don't accept.
As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?
It could have been worse: you could have ended up with Huhne.
True. But at least it would all be sorted now and we'd have Farron who isn't part of the PPE love-in!
I'm currently writing a series of counter-factuals, of which "Huhne wins the 2007 leadership election" is one (anyone know a good publisher, by the way?).
Without giving the game wholly away, I think the result of the 2010 general election would have been materially different with Huhne at the helm. You can't just slot Huhne into a Con-LD coalition government in place of Clegg.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m Lib Dems' only brightside, despite the even bigger thumping: "We've had an hour's prime time telly," says Clegg spinner #europedebate
Will it save their MEPs? Possibly it might help, but it won't have cost those MEPs anything either, so no matter how bad Clegg did or didn't do (he had a fairly good bit on business in the middle on either side of a Farage win sandwich), he and the LDs are in fact not likely to be worse off as a result of this, so at worst they've gained nothing from it.
What I wonder is, will it hurt LD councillors and MPs that the LDs label themselves "the party of in"?
Their hope is to pick up diffuse pro-EU voters ahead of the EU Parliament PR elections, but will they also be repelling anti-EU voters in the FPTP local elections this year, and the general in 2015?
Considering only about 3% of the vote separates the LDs from winning half a dozen MEPs or no MEPs, a hour's prime time must seem like manna from heaven...
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m Lib Dems' only brightside, despite the even bigger thumping: "We've had an hour's prime time telly," says Clegg spinner #europedebate
But, in the grand scheme of things, will it move any votes?
The common media view was that Clegg had nothing to lose going into these debates....
I am normally as sceptical as any about the common media view, but I do think on this occasion they were right, possibly thanks to good spinning from the LDs about how bad they will do, if that makes sense. Prior to making the debate challenge I believe LDs had acknowledged the possibility they could lose all their MEPS - therefore, if that happens, while Clegg will face pressure (I've always felt he would go in either 2013 or 2014 and still do, regardless of election results), it was what they'd pre briefed they might get. Saving even a few could, however provably true or not it is be presented as evidence of his leadership working, as a few percentage points could be the difference between 0 or 3 or 6 (beyond that? Seems implausible).
It'll be awful regardless, but prep people for a wipeout and even a little recovery could see the rump thinking a recovery is underway. And before someone laughs about how much in denial that might be, if the rump can be preserved - poll wise, seat wise - that is enough for the LDs to merely have a bad result rather than a catastrophic one., and damage limitation is the game they have been playing for a long time now.
Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners are less than amused. Turning on their own party already. Caron Lindsay @caronmlindsay A third of Lib Dems think Farage won according to poll. What were they watching? #NickvNigel #europedebate LOL
Caron used to be a LD employee, maybe still is? She is one of the LD Scot luvvies.....
As I've posted before I've been a Lib/LD for years. Smaller states, individual independence, support for the less fortunate, prevention of exploitation, being part of Europe, being able to move for work, making Europe work
How the hell did we end up with Nick Clegg?
It could have been worse: you could have ended up with Huhne.
True. But at least it would all be sorted now and we'd have Farron who isn't part of the PPE love-in!
I'm currently writing a series of counter-factuals, of which "Huhne wins the 2007 leadership election" is one (anyone know a good publisher, by the way?).
Without giving the game wholly away, I think the result of the 2010 general election would have been materially different with Huhne at the helm. You can't just slot Huhne into a Con-LD coalition government in place of Clegg.
Do you mean the LD's would have done significantly differently in terms of seats (If so how differently?) or that a Cameron/Huhne dialogue on coalition would have been different? Would a LD party with say 70 seats have been in a better position? And, after all, Huhne was part of the negotiating team!
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m Lib Dems' only brightside, despite the even bigger thumping: "We've had an hour's prime time telly," says Clegg spinner #europedebate
On that basis the countless hours of prime time on Huhne and Rennard must have been just bloody marvellous for them..
I saw that. The man has no judgement. Let us hope he is the next LD Leader. Imagine Farage and him in a debate where Farage starts praising Thatcher. Farron would explode.
Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners are less than amused. Turning on their own party already. Caron Lindsay @caronmlindsay A third of Lib Dems think Farage won according to poll. What were they watching? #NickvNigel #europedebate LOL
Caron used to be a LD employee, maybe still is? She is one of the LD Scot luvvies.....
Indeed. That would be the point of ostrich faction of spinners after all.
Just watching the BBC news reaction to it and the Swedish dude has reminded me that my ex girlfriend was a campaigner for Sweden to join the Euro, and I used to wear a "Ja Til Euron" t shirt that she gave me to go out running in!
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m Lib Dems' only brightside, despite the even bigger thumping: "We've had an hour's prime time telly," says Clegg spinner #europedebate
On that basis the countless hours of prime time on Huhne and Rennard must have been just bloody marvellous for them..
Dimbo from the Independant seems to think Farage won because people love Farage and are blind to his obviously repugnant foreign policy stance. Cognitive dissonance, you have found your muse.
Yeah, I don't agree with Farage's foreign policy stance at all, but it would be absurd to deny that his view is at the least enthusiastically approved of by a minority, and at best the majority view.
Nigel Farage's answers were always direct and easy to understand".
Farage's great skill is to convince the logically challenged that he is not a politician.
Your mistake is to assume that the word politician means merely someone engaged in democratic public administration, rather than recognise the reality that it's actually a short hand for slimy lying bastards for most ordinary people.
But I accept your definition without question. Politicians are unquestionably "slimy lying bastards".
It is the illogical leap which excludes Farage from the class that I don't accept.
Managing to be very prominent and included in the national debate and yet portray oneself as not a 'real' politician (obviously he accepts he is a politician, but not a member of the political classes) and in a wider sense UKIP's delusions that because much of the media does not like them that that means the bits that do are not part of the 'mainstream' media as well, is truly a brilliant and fortuitous happenstance for Farage and UKIP. The tribal benefits of managing to lump everyone not of your view as belonging to one singular other tribe of 'mainstream media' and 'political establishment' rather than a diverse group of political opponents, is quite useful.
I would put it as even more brilliant than Ed M somehow avoiding any negative connotations from his involvement at the heart of the last government, as though he was a rank outsider this whole time.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m Lib Dems' only brightside, despite the even bigger thumping: "We've had an hour's prime time telly," says Clegg spinner #europedebate
On that basis the countless hours of prime time on Huhne and Rennard must have been just bloody marvellous for them..
Amusing. I think we can safely say they meant that an hour of prime time telly where they at least had the chance to put their minority opinion directly to a wide (for politics) audience and hope it had some positive impact, is potentially useful, as opposed to hours of coverage of sordid scandals and divisions.
Nick Clegg showed "real bravery and backbone" says Lib Dem president @timfarron
'chortle'
It's also true. I get he did not do particularly well in the second debate, in my opinion at least, and of course his party spinners are doing their job with the hamfistedness of spinners everywhere (Brown's after the first leadership debate in 2010, when I thought he did ok, were particularly embarrassing and made him look worse as a result), but it doesn't follow that anything said in the positive is laughable.
Haha!! The fact check bloke on BBC was asked about the "7% or 75% of laws made in EU" claims.. he said you could only get it to 50% so 75% was a bit high...
A 1/3 of LD supporters thought Farage won..... quote from Norman on BBC.
Wow.
Sounds about right, and a good indicator that the objective truth is he probably lost - if you cannot get your own side to massively call it for you, you probably did not even get out of it evenly.
Mr. F, I still recall Oaten's comments on pb.com. Whilst I still find his actions inexplicable, it's a worthy reminder that the people we cheer and deride are men of flesh and blood, and that it's good to try and consider if we would say to their face the same words we write about them.
Haha!! The fact check bloke on BBC was asked about the "7% or 75% of laws made in EU" claims.. he said you could only get it to 50% so 75% was a bit high...
Its bloody closer than 7 isn't it?!!
Yes, the BBC struggle with materiality when they need to in order to sustain their argument too.
I'm in the south west, and last time it was Con 30, UKIP 22, LD 17, Green 9, Lab 8 (all approximate), with 3 Con, 2 UKIP and 1 LD elected. How much of a UKIP swing would see them get 4 and Con 2, as I suspect will be the result does anyone know?
It'll all come down to the Gibraltarian vote no doubt.
Haha!! The fact check bloke on BBC was asked about the "7% or 75% of laws made in EU" claims.. he said you could only get it to 50% so 75% was a bit high...
Its bloody closer than 7 isn't it?!!
You see all the pro EU propagandist mainly go on the 75% instead of the bull of the DP nick clegg of 7%,even most of the pro EU pb posters will think that is bull,don't you ;-)
Haha!! The fact check bloke on BBC was asked about the "7% or 75% of laws made in EU" claims.. he said you could only get it to 50% so 75% was a bit high...
Its bloody closer than 7 isn't it?!!
Yes, the BBC struggle with materiality when they need to in order to sustain their argument too.
Not really.
It depends on what your definitions are where you place it, but the 75% is just utter bollocks. ~50% being as high a figure as you can make it.
Comments
Clegg on 27 and 31 after Farage is it seems by most assessors the winner, when with a moer even opinion last time he was on 37, is while not great, nor surprising. Once again it all comes down to if the LD base and maybe a few others can be persuaded by his unpopular pro-EU message - that is, if the minority can be rallied, as he already knew the majority opinion was not one he was going to win, good performance or not.
No wonder he lost.
In sincerely hope I can refrain from making that point again, as I suspect we shall hear more of the 'no-one watched it/cared about it' argument in the hours and day ahead (I say day, i don't think this has legs to get attention to the weekend).
There'll be more than a few beers and maybe a few whiskeys, downed tonight as UKIP celebrate another win by Nigel Farage.
Wouldn't surprise me to find another thousand have joined UKIP by weeks end.
© Junior's dad.2012-2014.
™ pending....
Even someone as ungrateful and unappreciative as Cameron must realise he owes Clegg and is duty-bound to find him something suitable.
Soon!
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m
Lib Dems' only brightside, despite the even bigger thumping: "We've had an hour's prime time telly," says Clegg spinner #europedebate
Blimey. It's the ghost of Bill McLaren....
Farage smashed Clegg out of the park.. proud to be a UKIP member tonight, he was absolutely different class
"The politicians never answer the questions.
Nigel Farage's answers were always direct and easy to understand".
Farage's great skill is to convince the logically challenged that he is not a politician.
Nick is poisonous.
who are also Lib Dems!
We've got more from the Guardian ICM poll.
Who had the more appealing personality?
Farage - 49%
Clegg - 39%
Who had the better arguments?
Farage - 64%
Clegg - 30%
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/apr/02/farage-v-clegg-the-debate-for-europe-politics-live-blog#block-533c659ce4b040af4c4db516
Football parlance now. Did he 'do ever so well?'
Would make a good match for Farage.
As it is I imagine his team are a little disappointed - and should ignore people who tell him to be more passionate and less polished next time such an event occurs - that they did not capitalise on the debate as they might have hoped, at least the LD position is getting some airing in the media circles. Will it save their MEPs? Possibly it might help, but it won't have cost those MEPs anything either, so no matter how bad Clegg did or didn't do (he had a fairly good bit on business in the middle on either side of a Farage win sandwich), he and the LDs are in fact not likely to be worse off as a result of this, so at worst they've gained nothing from it.
9% swing #CLEGG to #FARAGE since the 1st debate
Paul Oakley UKIP @PaulJamesOakley 5m
Farage now leading Clegg by 90% to 10% in @LBC poll. http://bit.ly/OdGoGz #UKIP #TeamNigel
To quote a prominent PBer: THE NEWS KEEPS GETTING BETTER!
It is the illogical leap which excludes Farage from the class that I don't accept.
Caron Lindsay @caronmlindsay
A third of Lib Dems think Farage won according to poll. What were they watching? #NickvNigel #europedebate
LOL
Without giving the game wholly away, I think the result of the 2010 general election would have been materially different with Huhne at the helm. You can't just slot Huhne into a Con-LD coalition government in place of Clegg.
Their hope is to pick up diffuse pro-EU voters ahead of the EU Parliament PR elections, but will they also be repelling anti-EU voters in the FPTP local elections this year, and the general in 2015?
If they are included, the "who won?" figures are:
Nigel Farage: 64%
Nick Clegg: 28%
Don't know: 8%
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/apr/02/farage-v-clegg-the-debate-for-europe-politics-live-blog#block-533c6736e4b0624e60d379d3
Wow.
It'll be awful regardless, but prep people for a wipeout and even a little recovery could see the rump thinking a recovery is underway. And before someone laughs about how much in denial that might be, if the rump can be preserved - poll wise, seat wise - that is enough for the LDs to merely have a bad result rather than a catastrophic one., and damage limitation is the game they have been playing for a long time now.
If they are included, the "who won?" figures are: Farage: 64%, Clegg: 28%, DK 8%
Let's not bring out embarrassing leaflets Nick #europedebate #NickvNigel pic.twitter.com/8hAAHARLSD
To use your immortal phrase Mick,' unspoofable'.
http://www.scribblelive.com/Event/SinglePost.aspx?PostId=111732998&lang=undefined
Oh the shame!
BBC Politics ✔ @BBCPolitics
Nick Clegg showed "real bravery and backbone" says Lib Dem president @timfarron
'chortle'
Well played sir! Well played indeed.
I would put it as even more brilliant than Ed M somehow avoiding any negative connotations from his involvement at the heart of the last government, as though he was a rank outsider this whole time.
Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Sky News viewers on social media go 76% for Farage.
I wonder how some of the lib dems squadron of Southern England MPs are feeling at this moment....
polly curtis ✔ @pollycurtis
Of people who actually voted LIb Dem in 2010, 55% prefered Farage today, 38% preferred Clegg ouch #europedebate
Farage = Scipio Africanus
Clegg = Hannibal
George Eaton @georgeeaton
Lib Dems have lost 500,000 voters to UKIP since 2010 (more than Labour). Expect they've lost more tonight. #europedebate
Its bloody closer than 7 isn't it?!!
Guardian journalists call it for Clegg. But Guardian poll overwhelmingly for Farage."
https://twitter.com/afneil
Best £4 I ever spent!
It'll all come down to the Gibraltarian vote no doubt.
watching the Europe debate back, Nick Clegg sounds patronising but Farage is scarily charismatic. Painful to watch."
https://twitter.com/HarryQuickk
You see all the pro EU propagandist mainly go on the 75% instead of the bull of the DP nick clegg of 7%,even most of the pro EU pb posters will think that is bull,don't you ;-)
Clegg = Marcus Bibulus.
It depends on what your definitions are where you place it, but the 75% is just utter bollocks. ~50% being as high a figure as you can make it.